Prince George Monday, King George Saturday.
As a betting medium Ascot's mid-summer showpiece makes less appeal than a Prince George souvenir mug, with Cirrus Des Aigles rated some twelve pounds clear of his field. The best racehorse currently in training anywhere in the world is likely to start at a price that reflects that fact; the favourite has obliged on six occasions in the past decade.
In search of a bit of value, I chanced upon the two mile skyvegas.com Handicap, the 4.40 at York. Moidore and Crackentorp head the weights - the pair clashed in the Northumberland Plate four weeks ago, the former finishing sixth, the latter tenth. Crackentrop is three pounds better off here - they look very closely matched.
All The Aces finished sixth behind Eagle Rock over course and distance last time, Art History eighth. Nicky Henderson's dual-purpose gelding was rated as high as 134 over hurdles and will appreciate the rain that has been forecast.
I like to follow jumpers running on the Flat - All The Aces is a speculative selection.
Showing posts with label york. Show all posts
Showing posts with label york. Show all posts
Friday, July 26, 2013
Friday, July 12, 2013
NHotes and a beer
A very quick glance through the weekend cards...
Peter Bowen's dual-purpose mare Big Time Billy goes for an astonishing seventh consecutive win in the Stayers' Handicap at York (4.50) tomorrow. On Sunday the same handler sends Kian's Delight to Perth (2.30) while Dineur goes to Stratford for The Stratford Summer Cup (3.50), a very tight-looking handicap indeed. My concern about Dineur's chance would be that firm ground may not suit.
Writing in the Weekender Marcus Buckland makes a solid case for Solaras Exhibition in The Stratford Summer Salver (3.20) at the same meeting. This one was considered a 'lively outsider' by connections for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham; Solaras Exhibition would represent a value play should previous course and distance winner Castlemorris King be sent off favourite, as seems likely.
Finally I see The Times, in conjunction with Marston's brewery, is running a competition around The Ashes Series to win a year's supply of beer - and the brewer's Pedigree product would seem an appropriate tipple for any racing fan.
'Howzat for a great prize?' asks the blurb.
Well, not too impressive I'm afraid - the small print indicates the prize consists of 96 bottles of the aforementioned beer.
According to my miserable calculations, that equates to just 1.85 bottles per week. Now, I'm making no claims to be the world's biggest beer drinker but that allowance would barely cover one calendar month, never mind one calendar year.
'Enjoy responsibly' is what they like to tell us...
Peter Bowen's dual-purpose mare Big Time Billy goes for an astonishing seventh consecutive win in the Stayers' Handicap at York (4.50) tomorrow. On Sunday the same handler sends Kian's Delight to Perth (2.30) while Dineur goes to Stratford for The Stratford Summer Cup (3.50), a very tight-looking handicap indeed. My concern about Dineur's chance would be that firm ground may not suit.
Writing in the Weekender Marcus Buckland makes a solid case for Solaras Exhibition in The Stratford Summer Salver (3.20) at the same meeting. This one was considered a 'lively outsider' by connections for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham; Solaras Exhibition would represent a value play should previous course and distance winner Castlemorris King be sent off favourite, as seems likely.
Finally I see The Times, in conjunction with Marston's brewery, is running a competition around The Ashes Series to win a year's supply of beer - and the brewer's Pedigree product would seem an appropriate tipple for any racing fan.
'Howzat for a great prize?' asks the blurb.
Well, not too impressive I'm afraid - the small print indicates the prize consists of 96 bottles of the aforementioned beer.
According to my miserable calculations, that equates to just 1.85 bottles per week. Now, I'm making no claims to be the world's biggest beer drinker but that allowance would barely cover one calendar month, never mind one calendar year.
'Enjoy responsibly' is what they like to tell us...
Friday, August 24, 2012
From the sublime to the ridiculous
This week we've seen the sublime and we've seen the ridiculous.
Frankel barely had to engage second gear to take Wednesday's Juddmonte International at York; writing as Thunderer in today's Times, Stephen Pollard informs us the great horse '...has achieved perfection.'
In marked contrast bookmakers Betfred have incurred the wrath of most by refusing to pay out on a grandmother's 200/1 Olympic medal wager; Sam Oldham won team bronze in the gymnastics but Betfred have refused a payout as the medal was won in a team, rather than an individual, event. Hmmm.
For the final day of the Ebor meeting here are a couple of tips which, come five o'clock on Saturday afternoon, you're likely to consider ridiculous rather than sublime...
The feature race is the Ebor at 3.40. In the past I've leant towards horses with some NH form for this event; this approach has proved decidedly unsuccessful over the years but I'm past caring. Four qualify this year - Steps To Freedom, Crackentorp, Royal Diamond and Blue Bajan.
Top weight Steps To Freedom looks up against it - only Sea Pigeon (1979) has carried more than 9-4 to victory in the past 50 years. At the age of ten, Blue Bajan appears to face a similarly stiff task; Sea Pigeon was aged nine when recording his victory - since then no horse older than six has come home in front.
In the past nine renewals the winner has come from of a double-digit stall on eight occasions - Royal Diamond doesn't appear to have the best of draws (stall 2) and his tendency to race from the front could leave him vulnerable up the long home straight.
Crackentorp has a better draw (17) but, on stats, can't win at the age of seven and last time out put in a slightly disappointing performance behind Mount Athos. Mount Athos has gone in again since and now heads for the Melbourne Cup, so perhaps I'm being a little harsh there... Previously Crackentorp finished second to Ile De Re in Newcastle's Northumberland Plate run on heavy ground. That day Icon Dream was third and tomorrow's favourite Motivado thirteenth.
The two I'm interested in at a price are Crackentorp and Icon Dream; on Northumberland Plate running there's little between them. Crackentorp is 16/1 with most layers while Icon Dream is 25/1 so I'll take a small each-way interest in Icon Dream (drawn 19) - most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.
In the preceding Lonsdale Cup (3.05) I haven't totally written off Willie Mullins' Simenon. This one finished sixth behind Saddler's Rock in the Goodwood Cup last time but was only beaten four and a half lengths. On ratings he has plenty to find with several of these and on a literal interpretation can't reverse form with Saddler's. Having said that, I'm re-reading Ruby Walsh's autobiography at the moment and Ruby's comments about Willie Mullins make me think the great man wouldn't send his charge over if he didn't think the gelding was in with a shout. Simenon was done for toe in the final furlong at Goodwood; priced up early at 16/1 with William Hill, I'll bet Simenon each-way - any rain at the track will aid his cause.
Frankel barely had to engage second gear to take Wednesday's Juddmonte International at York; writing as Thunderer in today's Times, Stephen Pollard informs us the great horse '...has achieved perfection.'
In marked contrast bookmakers Betfred have incurred the wrath of most by refusing to pay out on a grandmother's 200/1 Olympic medal wager; Sam Oldham won team bronze in the gymnastics but Betfred have refused a payout as the medal was won in a team, rather than an individual, event. Hmmm.
For the final day of the Ebor meeting here are a couple of tips which, come five o'clock on Saturday afternoon, you're likely to consider ridiculous rather than sublime...
The feature race is the Ebor at 3.40. In the past I've leant towards horses with some NH form for this event; this approach has proved decidedly unsuccessful over the years but I'm past caring. Four qualify this year - Steps To Freedom, Crackentorp, Royal Diamond and Blue Bajan.
Top weight Steps To Freedom looks up against it - only Sea Pigeon (1979) has carried more than 9-4 to victory in the past 50 years. At the age of ten, Blue Bajan appears to face a similarly stiff task; Sea Pigeon was aged nine when recording his victory - since then no horse older than six has come home in front.
In the past nine renewals the winner has come from of a double-digit stall on eight occasions - Royal Diamond doesn't appear to have the best of draws (stall 2) and his tendency to race from the front could leave him vulnerable up the long home straight.
Crackentorp has a better draw (17) but, on stats, can't win at the age of seven and last time out put in a slightly disappointing performance behind Mount Athos. Mount Athos has gone in again since and now heads for the Melbourne Cup, so perhaps I'm being a little harsh there... Previously Crackentorp finished second to Ile De Re in Newcastle's Northumberland Plate run on heavy ground. That day Icon Dream was third and tomorrow's favourite Motivado thirteenth.
The two I'm interested in at a price are Crackentorp and Icon Dream; on Northumberland Plate running there's little between them. Crackentorp is 16/1 with most layers while Icon Dream is 25/1 so I'll take a small each-way interest in Icon Dream (drawn 19) - most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.
In the preceding Lonsdale Cup (3.05) I haven't totally written off Willie Mullins' Simenon. This one finished sixth behind Saddler's Rock in the Goodwood Cup last time but was only beaten four and a half lengths. On ratings he has plenty to find with several of these and on a literal interpretation can't reverse form with Saddler's. Having said that, I'm re-reading Ruby Walsh's autobiography at the moment and Ruby's comments about Willie Mullins make me think the great man wouldn't send his charge over if he didn't think the gelding was in with a shout. Simenon was done for toe in the final furlong at Goodwood; priced up early at 16/1 with William Hill, I'll bet Simenon each-way - any rain at the track will aid his cause.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Two John Smith's for York...
Can you have too much of a good thing? Tomorrow's racing includes the Darley July Cup at Newmarket, the John Smith's Cup at York, the Weatherby's Super Sprint at Newbury and the chesterBET City Plate at Chester.
I've decided to focus on the two long distance races at York - the John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.25 over 14 furlongs and the John Smith's Stayers' Handicap at 4.45 over two miles. Both races pick up strands of form from the Northumberland Plate run at Newcastle two weeks ago; on that occasion I highlighted runners with previous NH form and I'm going to do something similar here.
The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places.
Crackentorp runs in the Silver Cup and ran a cracker to finish second at odds of 16/1 in the Northumberland Plate; he carried nine stone off a handicap mark of 93 on that occasion but this time has been raised eight pounds and has 9-7 on his back. Motivado was beaten a distance in that same race while Blue Bajan, Lyric Street and Kiama Bay were all withdrawn on the day on account of the heavy ground; the last-named has since posted a decent effort to finish seventh, beaten four lengths, in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Michael Bell took the honours last year with Tactician - this time he saddles the only three-year-old in the field who is marked up favourite in the tissue.
I think Cesarewitch winner Never Can Tell would prefer better ground, a comment that also applies to Mount Athos who was fourth behind the aforementioned Ces winner and was withdrawn from the Coral Marathon at Sandown last Saturday where the ground was described as good to soft. The mare Western Pearl ran third in this last year at a big price and ran creditably to finish fifth behind Simenon in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting while High Jinx doesn't have too many miles on the clock and apparently has the Ebor as his target so he'll be expected to show up well here. The one that catches my eye is the appropriately-named Stormy Weather. Formerly with Howard Johnson, the grey was highly tried on his first two runs over hurdles for Brian Ellison, in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last December. On his subsequent four visits to the track he has finished in the first two on each occasion and rates reasonable each-way value at around 14/1.
In the Stayers' Handicap, those with previous NH form are Orsippus, Herostatus, Pokfulham, Bruslini, Jonny Delta, Mica Mika, Swinging Hawk and Red Jade. Brian Ellison's grey Bruslini has raced from the front in recent hurdle races before finishing third behind Cloudy Spirit over two miles two here in May. Orsippus was behind in fourth that day before going on to finish second at Ripon and then collect the Pontefract Cup three weeks ago (beating French Hollow who ran a stormer in the Northumberland Plate). Bruslini looks weighted to confirm the York form with Orsippus. Pokfulham looked to have a hard race when beating Rock Relief a nose on the heavy ground at Newcastle just over a fortnight ago while Herostatus had a long slog in the Catterick mud a mere three days ago.
Jonny Delta is an interesting one - as a four-year-old he finished seventh behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree bumper - in front of subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes. That form reads well - last time out Jonny was fourth behind Getabuzz (Fallon up) beaten just two lengths (with Red Jade further behind in seventh); he's two pounds better off here so the pairing look closely matched but jockey bookings are noted... Fallon rides Orsippus while Neil Farley claims five aboard Jonny Delta. A difficult race but I'll follow Fallon on Orsippus (Bruslini feared) and will consider a small rach-way interest in Jonny Delta if priced up around the 20/1 mark.
To finish, a dreamer's double - what price Brian Ellison's two greys, Stormy Weather and Bruslini...?
I've decided to focus on the two long distance races at York - the John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.25 over 14 furlongs and the John Smith's Stayers' Handicap at 4.45 over two miles. Both races pick up strands of form from the Northumberland Plate run at Newcastle two weeks ago; on that occasion I highlighted runners with previous NH form and I'm going to do something similar here.
The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places.
Crackentorp runs in the Silver Cup and ran a cracker to finish second at odds of 16/1 in the Northumberland Plate; he carried nine stone off a handicap mark of 93 on that occasion but this time has been raised eight pounds and has 9-7 on his back. Motivado was beaten a distance in that same race while Blue Bajan, Lyric Street and Kiama Bay were all withdrawn on the day on account of the heavy ground; the last-named has since posted a decent effort to finish seventh, beaten four lengths, in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Michael Bell took the honours last year with Tactician - this time he saddles the only three-year-old in the field who is marked up favourite in the tissue.
I think Cesarewitch winner Never Can Tell would prefer better ground, a comment that also applies to Mount Athos who was fourth behind the aforementioned Ces winner and was withdrawn from the Coral Marathon at Sandown last Saturday where the ground was described as good to soft. The mare Western Pearl ran third in this last year at a big price and ran creditably to finish fifth behind Simenon in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting while High Jinx doesn't have too many miles on the clock and apparently has the Ebor as his target so he'll be expected to show up well here. The one that catches my eye is the appropriately-named Stormy Weather. Formerly with Howard Johnson, the grey was highly tried on his first two runs over hurdles for Brian Ellison, in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last December. On his subsequent four visits to the track he has finished in the first two on each occasion and rates reasonable each-way value at around 14/1.
In the Stayers' Handicap, those with previous NH form are Orsippus, Herostatus, Pokfulham, Bruslini, Jonny Delta, Mica Mika, Swinging Hawk and Red Jade. Brian Ellison's grey Bruslini has raced from the front in recent hurdle races before finishing third behind Cloudy Spirit over two miles two here in May. Orsippus was behind in fourth that day before going on to finish second at Ripon and then collect the Pontefract Cup three weeks ago (beating French Hollow who ran a stormer in the Northumberland Plate). Bruslini looks weighted to confirm the York form with Orsippus. Pokfulham looked to have a hard race when beating Rock Relief a nose on the heavy ground at Newcastle just over a fortnight ago while Herostatus had a long slog in the Catterick mud a mere three days ago.
Jonny Delta is an interesting one - as a four-year-old he finished seventh behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree bumper - in front of subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes. That form reads well - last time out Jonny was fourth behind Getabuzz (Fallon up) beaten just two lengths (with Red Jade further behind in seventh); he's two pounds better off here so the pairing look closely matched but jockey bookings are noted... Fallon rides Orsippus while Neil Farley claims five aboard Jonny Delta. A difficult race but I'll follow Fallon on Orsippus (Bruslini feared) and will consider a small rach-way interest in Jonny Delta if priced up around the 20/1 mark.
To finish, a dreamer's double - what price Brian Ellison's two greys, Stormy Weather and Bruslini...?
Friday, August 19, 2011
Notes on some of Saturday's runners...
Horses with previous NH form running in Flat races over a distance of more than one and a half miles this Saturday...
York 3.05 Lonsdale Cup (2m):
Blue Bajan, Bergo, Elyaadi.
Blue Bajan, beaten a head and a neck into third in the Goodwood Cup (Bergo a couple more lengths away in fifth), is three pounds better off with winner Opinion Poll who took this event last year. The mare Elyaddi, second in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, will appreciate cut underfoot, a comment that also applies to Harris Tweed, but has plenty to find on official ratings. That was a fine effort by Bergo on his seasonal reappearance but the 'bounce' factor is a worry and he's shown his best form on top of the ground.
Suggestion: Blue Bajan win.
York 3.40 Ebor Handicap (1m 6f):
Salute Him, Cill Rialaig, Investissement, Hillview Boy.
As you'd expect, an ultra-competitive handicap. This race has seen some big-priced winners in recent times - Mediterranean 16/1 2001; Hugs Dance 25/1 2002; Saint Alebe 20/1 2003; Mudawin 100/1 2006 and Sesenta 25/1 2009. In the past decade no horse over the age of six has won the event. Irish runner Salute Him, an eight-year-old, was fifth in this last year and makes some each-way appeal at 25/1 but Hillview Boy hasn't been seen since finishing ninth last year - are connections plotting a cunning coup? Investissement may have been a little flattered when finishing third behind Petara Bay at Goodwood the last time and doesn't look the easiest of rides. Cill Rialaig has an Exeter bumper over 13 furlongs on soft ground to her name so Hughie Morrison's mare should stay the trip here. Both Betfred and totesport pay five places on this race.
Suggestion: Salute Him each way.
Chester 4.10 Chester Stakes (1m 5f):
No qualifiers.
Chester 5.15 (1m 7f):
Amazing King, Lastroseofsummer, French Hollow, Calisto Moon, Hallstaff
Amazing King ran well at this course last time and should appreciate both the going and the step-up in trip having previously won a Southwell beginners' chase over two miles. Lastroseofsummer is a front-running mare who is in very good form at the moment while French Hollow won at 66/1 on his penultimate run and has gone in again since but is one who likes to come from off the pace. Callisto Moon has tried his luck with several trainers and has plenty of miles on the clock but Halstatt is eight pounds better off with French Hollow and was hampered in running in that race. An open event which has seen four of the last five winners carry more than 9-5 to victory - I'll chance Amazing King.
Suggestion: Amazing King each-way (8/1 or bigger).
Bath 8.10 (1m 5f)
A poor grade 6 handicap in which several runners have previous NH form. Michael Scudamore's Red Current would be worth a second look but only at a price.
No suggestion.
Those waiting for the return of the jumpers may want to note Perth's 3.45, the Scottish Hydro Summer Champion Hurdle, for future reference. Overturn takes his chance but he's likely to have a fight for the lead with Paul Webber's Australia Day in the line-up. Irish course and distance winners Brave Beauty and Now This Is It catch the eye - the latter finished second in a race at the Galway Festival but isn't certain to be suited by the step back in trip.
York 3.05 Lonsdale Cup (2m):
Blue Bajan, Bergo, Elyaadi.
Blue Bajan, beaten a head and a neck into third in the Goodwood Cup (Bergo a couple more lengths away in fifth), is three pounds better off with winner Opinion Poll who took this event last year. The mare Elyaddi, second in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, will appreciate cut underfoot, a comment that also applies to Harris Tweed, but has plenty to find on official ratings. That was a fine effort by Bergo on his seasonal reappearance but the 'bounce' factor is a worry and he's shown his best form on top of the ground.
Suggestion: Blue Bajan win.
York 3.40 Ebor Handicap (1m 6f):
Salute Him, Cill Rialaig, Investissement, Hillview Boy.
As you'd expect, an ultra-competitive handicap. This race has seen some big-priced winners in recent times - Mediterranean 16/1 2001; Hugs Dance 25/1 2002; Saint Alebe 20/1 2003; Mudawin 100/1 2006 and Sesenta 25/1 2009. In the past decade no horse over the age of six has won the event. Irish runner Salute Him, an eight-year-old, was fifth in this last year and makes some each-way appeal at 25/1 but Hillview Boy hasn't been seen since finishing ninth last year - are connections plotting a cunning coup? Investissement may have been a little flattered when finishing third behind Petara Bay at Goodwood the last time and doesn't look the easiest of rides. Cill Rialaig has an Exeter bumper over 13 furlongs on soft ground to her name so Hughie Morrison's mare should stay the trip here. Both Betfred and totesport pay five places on this race.
Suggestion: Salute Him each way.
Chester 4.10 Chester Stakes (1m 5f):
No qualifiers.
Chester 5.15 (1m 7f):
Amazing King, Lastroseofsummer, French Hollow, Calisto Moon, Hallstaff
Amazing King ran well at this course last time and should appreciate both the going and the step-up in trip having previously won a Southwell beginners' chase over two miles. Lastroseofsummer is a front-running mare who is in very good form at the moment while French Hollow won at 66/1 on his penultimate run and has gone in again since but is one who likes to come from off the pace. Callisto Moon has tried his luck with several trainers and has plenty of miles on the clock but Halstatt is eight pounds better off with French Hollow and was hampered in running in that race. An open event which has seen four of the last five winners carry more than 9-5 to victory - I'll chance Amazing King.
Suggestion: Amazing King each-way (8/1 or bigger).
Bath 8.10 (1m 5f)
A poor grade 6 handicap in which several runners have previous NH form. Michael Scudamore's Red Current would be worth a second look but only at a price.
No suggestion.
Those waiting for the return of the jumpers may want to note Perth's 3.45, the Scottish Hydro Summer Champion Hurdle, for future reference. Overturn takes his chance but he's likely to have a fight for the lead with Paul Webber's Australia Day in the line-up. Irish course and distance winners Brave Beauty and Now This Is It catch the eye - the latter finished second in a race at the Galway Festival but isn't certain to be suited by the step back in trip.
Friday, July 22, 2011
King George day at Ascot
Only five go in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow but it looks particularly intriguing. On ratings, there's little to choose between Workforce and Rewilding while Coolmore has surprised many by putting up trainer's son Joseph O'Brien on St Nicholas Abbey. Nathaniel has course and distance winning form and has been supplemented at a cost of £75,000; Debussy is set to act as pacemaker for Rewilding. Over the week the market has changed significantly with Workforce now a clear favourite following a favourable gallop at Newmarket on Sunday. Rewilding, with Ascot specialist Dettori in the plate, has to be the value; William Hill offered 7/2 until early afternoon but now go 3/1; 100/30 is generally available. Connections think they have found the answer to the colt's apparent inconsistency last season - he needs a break between races. Workforce flopped badly in this last year, leading some to question whether he disliked the track; trainer Sir Michael Stoute is on record saying his charge is in much better shape this year. A fascinating renewal - Rewilding gets the nod.
Continuing with a theme (Keys went in again (4/5f) earlier this afternoon), horses with NH form running over more than 12 furlongs tomorrow include:
4.05 Newcastle - Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau, Summerlea, Falcun, Hi Dancer, Strikemaster and Follow The Sun. Tillietudum has won novice hurdles at Perth, Bangor and Ayr by racing from the front. Jeu De Roseau has Towcester and Sedgefield handicap hurdles to his name and was beaten less than five lengths by Tillietudlem at Catterick last time; they look closely matched on the revised terms. Summerlea has his second run for new connections, having finished mid-division in a Punchestown maiden hurdle in October 2009. Falcun didn't look suited to the jumping game with two undistinguished runs in maiden hurdles; his latest run hints he may benefit from this trip after staying on well over 14 furlongs at Redcar the last time. Hi Dancer won a Sedgefield handicap hurdle off 108 in March at odds of 25/1. Strikemaster boasts little NH form of note but Follow The Sun has won a Southwell two mile handicap chase. Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau and Falcun are of interest - Falcun is a tentative suggestion.
4.45 York - Bow To No One, Simonside and Profit's Reality. Bow To No One has run of the mill novice hurdle form over two miles that dates back to March/April this year. The mare finished second to 66/1 winner French Hollow at this course two weeks ago and on the back of that effort looks likely to go off the market leader; Spiekeroog made up plenty of ground to finish fourth that day and may well have improved for the run. Simonside was a Market Rasen bumper winner in 2007, won over course and distance last September and won his penultimate start at Ayr. Profit's Reality has raced 64 times with just the one start over hurdles at Bangor in August 2008. Bow To No One is of most interest; Simonside may find one or two too good in this Class 3 event.
6.15 Lingfield - eight of the ten runnners have NH form; Dream Catcher has won over hurdles but has been generally disappointing. No suggestion.
8.10 Salibury - Tropical Batchelor is the only one with jumps form but is of interest on the back of his close fourth at Haydock last week. The winner of the Haydock race, Spirit Of A Nation, goes in York's 4.45 (see above) and may provide a pointer to Tropical Batchelor's chance. Reg Hollinshead's Drawn Gold finished fifth at Haydock but reopposes on two pounds worse terms as the jockey isn't a claimer. Tropical Batchelor looks to represent a reasonable each-way shout (10/1 or bigger) on his third start of the season after a long layoff.
Continuing with a theme (Keys went in again (4/5f) earlier this afternoon), horses with NH form running over more than 12 furlongs tomorrow include:
4.05 Newcastle - Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau, Summerlea, Falcun, Hi Dancer, Strikemaster and Follow The Sun. Tillietudum has won novice hurdles at Perth, Bangor and Ayr by racing from the front. Jeu De Roseau has Towcester and Sedgefield handicap hurdles to his name and was beaten less than five lengths by Tillietudlem at Catterick last time; they look closely matched on the revised terms. Summerlea has his second run for new connections, having finished mid-division in a Punchestown maiden hurdle in October 2009. Falcun didn't look suited to the jumping game with two undistinguished runs in maiden hurdles; his latest run hints he may benefit from this trip after staying on well over 14 furlongs at Redcar the last time. Hi Dancer won a Sedgefield handicap hurdle off 108 in March at odds of 25/1. Strikemaster boasts little NH form of note but Follow The Sun has won a Southwell two mile handicap chase. Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau and Falcun are of interest - Falcun is a tentative suggestion.
4.45 York - Bow To No One, Simonside and Profit's Reality. Bow To No One has run of the mill novice hurdle form over two miles that dates back to March/April this year. The mare finished second to 66/1 winner French Hollow at this course two weeks ago and on the back of that effort looks likely to go off the market leader; Spiekeroog made up plenty of ground to finish fourth that day and may well have improved for the run. Simonside was a Market Rasen bumper winner in 2007, won over course and distance last September and won his penultimate start at Ayr. Profit's Reality has raced 64 times with just the one start over hurdles at Bangor in August 2008. Bow To No One is of most interest; Simonside may find one or two too good in this Class 3 event.
6.15 Lingfield - eight of the ten runnners have NH form; Dream Catcher has won over hurdles but has been generally disappointing. No suggestion.
8.10 Salibury - Tropical Batchelor is the only one with jumps form but is of interest on the back of his close fourth at Haydock last week. The winner of the Haydock race, Spirit Of A Nation, goes in York's 4.45 (see above) and may provide a pointer to Tropical Batchelor's chance. Reg Hollinshead's Drawn Gold finished fifth at Haydock but reopposes on two pounds worse terms as the jockey isn't a claimer. Tropical Batchelor looks to represent a reasonable each-way shout (10/1 or bigger) on his third start of the season after a long layoff.
Friday, July 08, 2011
Long distance information?
Regular readers will know that during this Flat season I'm trying to concentrate on horses with NH form running in races beyond one and a half miles. Two recent results caught my eye - in Doncaster's opener last night Sendali (5/1), second in an Aintree handicap hurdle on his penultimate run, beat Heart Of Dubai (13/2), winner of a Cartmel novice hurdle last month, while earlier this afternoon French Hollow, winner of a Market Rasen bumper two years ago, took York's one and three quarter mile Global Trading UK Responsible Packaging Handicap at odds of 66/1. Needless to say, I backed none of the aforementioned beasts.
Two long distance races tomorrow - York's John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.40 (not to be confused with the John Smith's Cup run at the same venue some 35 minutes later) and Chester's toteswinger Handicap which is due off at four o'clock.
Twenty are declared for the Silver Cup; the going is currently reported to be good. The Betchworth Kid finished tailed off behind Fame And Glory in the Ascot Gold Cup last time; this listed handicap represents an easier task. Alan King's gelding has his share of weight here; fourth in Newbury's totesport Hurdle reads well - he subsequently finished down the field in Sandown's Imperial Cup three weeks later before bouncing back to take a 14 furlong listed Flat race at Nottingham. Woolfall Treasure, once owned by Harry Findlay, was rated 128 over hurdles and finished down the field in the 2009 renewal of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He is potentially very interesting if fit enough on this seasonal debut but there's a suspicion connections might be using this as a prep for the forthcoming Glorious Goodwood meeting. La Vecchia Scuola has been out of form this term. Of the other runners, it's worth casting an eye over the Northumberland Plate form and remembering that Her Majesty The Queen's Tactician was withdrawn from that race on account of the ground. Rock A Doodle Doo heads the market and has been tipped up by several commentators; the winner has come from the top two in the market on four occasions in the past five years. The Betchworth Kid isn't the most consistent of performers but Coral stands out with a quote of 33/1 this evening; The Betchworth Kid is the each-way suggestion.
Ten of the five day entries for Chester's toteswinger Handicap had form over the sticks (including former Philip Hobbs charge Comedy Act and earlier York winner French Hollow) but only two make the final cut - Descaro and Beat The Shower. The former has hurdling form in Ireland as well as England and was beaten just under six lengths by Tim Easterby's game mare Bollin Judith last time at York; Descaro re-opposes five pounds better off tomorrow and on tonight's tissue price (12/1) offers better value - first time cheekpieces last time are replaced by a first time visor here. Beat The Shower won a Hexham handicap hurdle last summer; that day the gelding came from behind to stay on and take the spoils - that style of running isn't best served by this tight track. I shall take an each-way interest in Descaro.
Two long distance races tomorrow - York's John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.40 (not to be confused with the John Smith's Cup run at the same venue some 35 minutes later) and Chester's toteswinger Handicap which is due off at four o'clock.
Twenty are declared for the Silver Cup; the going is currently reported to be good. The Betchworth Kid finished tailed off behind Fame And Glory in the Ascot Gold Cup last time; this listed handicap represents an easier task. Alan King's gelding has his share of weight here; fourth in Newbury's totesport Hurdle reads well - he subsequently finished down the field in Sandown's Imperial Cup three weeks later before bouncing back to take a 14 furlong listed Flat race at Nottingham. Woolfall Treasure, once owned by Harry Findlay, was rated 128 over hurdles and finished down the field in the 2009 renewal of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He is potentially very interesting if fit enough on this seasonal debut but there's a suspicion connections might be using this as a prep for the forthcoming Glorious Goodwood meeting. La Vecchia Scuola has been out of form this term. Of the other runners, it's worth casting an eye over the Northumberland Plate form and remembering that Her Majesty The Queen's Tactician was withdrawn from that race on account of the ground. Rock A Doodle Doo heads the market and has been tipped up by several commentators; the winner has come from the top two in the market on four occasions in the past five years. The Betchworth Kid isn't the most consistent of performers but Coral stands out with a quote of 33/1 this evening; The Betchworth Kid is the each-way suggestion.
Ten of the five day entries for Chester's toteswinger Handicap had form over the sticks (including former Philip Hobbs charge Comedy Act and earlier York winner French Hollow) but only two make the final cut - Descaro and Beat The Shower. The former has hurdling form in Ireland as well as England and was beaten just under six lengths by Tim Easterby's game mare Bollin Judith last time at York; Descaro re-opposes five pounds better off tomorrow and on tonight's tissue price (12/1) offers better value - first time cheekpieces last time are replaced by a first time visor here. Beat The Shower won a Hexham handicap hurdle last summer; that day the gelding came from behind to stay on and take the spoils - that style of running isn't best served by this tight track. I shall take an each-way interest in Descaro.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Friday night thoughts
In recent weeks rumours have been rife in racing and the national press concerning an ongoing investigation being conducted by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA). Earlier today the result of that investigation was made public as the BHA charged four jockeys and one ex-rider with breaking the rules of racing by conspiring to commit a fraudulent or corrupt practice in ten separate races run between January and August 2009. The four jockeys were named as Paul Doe, Greg Fairley, Kirsty Milczarek and Jimmy Quinn; former rider now trainer Paul Fitzsimons faces similar charges, as do two licensed owners and six other persons. The date of the hearing has been set for Thursday 20th October; unsurprisingly the jockeys charged, who can continue to ride, have vowed to clear their names. Unfortunately episodes such as this have become all too familiar in recent years.
Regular readers will know that I've decided to focus on horses with form over the sticks running in races over further than one and a half miles this Flat campaign. Nicky Henderson's Oasis Knight goes in the 3.10 at York; this one won a two and a half mile novice hurdle at Aintree a fortnight ago sporting first time blinkers. The gelding's second to subsequent Supreme Novice winner Al Ferof in February reads well enough and the blinds remain on here but on official ratings he has enough to find with two or three of these. Palomar was third in the Lanzarote at Kempton last January but has ten pounds more to find and makes little appeal.
In Chester's 4.35 Cotillion, Bollin Felix and Comedy Act have all collected over hurdles this winter. Both Cotillion and Bollin Felix probably prefer cut while Comedy Act is of some interest. Formerly with Sir Mark Prescott this one sold for 125,000 guineas at the Newmarket sales and at one point was quoted a 25/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle. He's not lived up to expectations - connections try cheekpieces for the first-time here. He represents nothing more than an each-way longshot but has a decent draw next to the rail in stall one.
Nicky Henderson's First Point is rated 140 over hurdles yet races off a mark of 70 in Newbury's 8.15; the booking of Kieren Fallon catches the eye and the yard has had five wins from 26 runs in the past fortnight. In the same race Gunslinger looks an outsider but Ian Williams' Rebel Dancer boasts decent form with a second to Tocca Ferro to his name. He failed to get competitive in the Swinton at Haydock the last time but I'd forgive that effort and the quick ground shouldn't pose a problem.
Regular readers will know that I've decided to focus on horses with form over the sticks running in races over further than one and a half miles this Flat campaign. Nicky Henderson's Oasis Knight goes in the 3.10 at York; this one won a two and a half mile novice hurdle at Aintree a fortnight ago sporting first time blinkers. The gelding's second to subsequent Supreme Novice winner Al Ferof in February reads well enough and the blinds remain on here but on official ratings he has enough to find with two or three of these. Palomar was third in the Lanzarote at Kempton last January but has ten pounds more to find and makes little appeal.
In Chester's 4.35 Cotillion, Bollin Felix and Comedy Act have all collected over hurdles this winter. Both Cotillion and Bollin Felix probably prefer cut while Comedy Act is of some interest. Formerly with Sir Mark Prescott this one sold for 125,000 guineas at the Newmarket sales and at one point was quoted a 25/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle. He's not lived up to expectations - connections try cheekpieces for the first-time here. He represents nothing more than an each-way longshot but has a decent draw next to the rail in stall one.
Nicky Henderson's First Point is rated 140 over hurdles yet races off a mark of 70 in Newbury's 8.15; the booking of Kieren Fallon catches the eye and the yard has had five wins from 26 runs in the past fortnight. In the same race Gunslinger looks an outsider but Ian Williams' Rebel Dancer boasts decent form with a second to Tocca Ferro to his name. He failed to get competitive in the Swinton at Haydock the last time but I'd forgive that effort and the quick ground shouldn't pose a problem.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
Quick points
Haydock's Swinton Hurdle looked extremely competitive beforehand but Nicky Henderson's Eradicate ran out an impressive 13 length winner and in the process became the first horse to win consecutive runnings of the race.
In Ireland overall attendance at the Punchestown Festival was, remarkably, higher than last year while Paul Townend claimed his first champion jockeys' title.
The decsion of connections to go to Royal Ascot with 2000 Guineas winner Frankel means Thursday's Dante Stakes at York should prove informative. At the time of writing, 11 are declared; in the ante-post market layers seem unable to choose a favourite from World Domination, Seville and Carlton House, owned by The Queen.
My mate Mike Cattermole didn't appear at the top of his game during Channel Four's coverage from Ascot on Saturday. Immediately after three pound claimer Gary Bartley had ridden Hawkeyethenoo to victory in the Victoria Cup, Cattermole used the rather dodgy link... 'Let's find out what it was like on top - Emma's with the winning jockey.' He then went on to call 5/1 favourite Horseradish the fourth horse home when in fact the favourite had been pipped a nose for that spot by 9/1 chance Brae Hill. I'm not going to be too harsh on uncle Mike - I'm sure he'll improve as the season progresses...
Finally, for reasons beyond comprehension, last week's royal wedding continues to haunt. A couple of days ago a colleague approached and asked if I'd appointed Angela Rippon to work as a correspondent for the blog. It transpires the lady in question has been appointed PG Tips' Official Royal-Tea Expert. I suspect that on current form Ms Rippon has more chance of tipping you a winner than me; in the words of songwriter Irving Berlin:
'There may be trouble ahead
But while there's moonlight and music
And love and romance
Let's face the music and dance.'
After that I'm off for a lie-down.
In Ireland overall attendance at the Punchestown Festival was, remarkably, higher than last year while Paul Townend claimed his first champion jockeys' title.
The decsion of connections to go to Royal Ascot with 2000 Guineas winner Frankel means Thursday's Dante Stakes at York should prove informative. At the time of writing, 11 are declared; in the ante-post market layers seem unable to choose a favourite from World Domination, Seville and Carlton House, owned by The Queen.
My mate Mike Cattermole didn't appear at the top of his game during Channel Four's coverage from Ascot on Saturday. Immediately after three pound claimer Gary Bartley had ridden Hawkeyethenoo to victory in the Victoria Cup, Cattermole used the rather dodgy link... 'Let's find out what it was like on top - Emma's with the winning jockey.' He then went on to call 5/1 favourite Horseradish the fourth horse home when in fact the favourite had been pipped a nose for that spot by 9/1 chance Brae Hill. I'm not going to be too harsh on uncle Mike - I'm sure he'll improve as the season progresses...
Finally, for reasons beyond comprehension, last week's royal wedding continues to haunt. A couple of days ago a colleague approached and asked if I'd appointed Angela Rippon to work as a correspondent for the blog. It transpires the lady in question has been appointed PG Tips' Official Royal-Tea Expert. I suspect that on current form Ms Rippon has more chance of tipping you a winner than me; in the words of songwriter Irving Berlin:
'There may be trouble ahead
But while there's moonlight and music
And love and romance
Let's face the music and dance.'
After that I'm off for a lie-down.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Ebor meeting - Nunthorpe Stakes
My Ebor selections have hardly set the world alight so, for the sake of completeness only, you understand, a tentative suggestion for the Nunthorpe is Richard Fahey's course and distance winner Rose Blossom, provided the ground remains on the fast side. Jockey Paul Hanagan has a word for the filly in this week's Weekender; she wears cheekpieces for the first time here. On official ratings she has plenty to find with several of these but that fact is reflected in the 20/1 quoted by some layers. I'll have an each-way wager but profess to being more hopeful than confident, particularly with the likes of Starspangledbanner, Equiano, Kingsgate Native and Fleeting Spirit in the line-up.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Ebor meeting - The Yorkshire Oaks
In a fascinating renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks Sariska, second to Dar Re Mi last year, will hope to make amends this time around, while her two principal rivals are Midday and this year's English and Irish Oaks winner Snow Fairy. Midday nearly threw away victory in the Nassau at Goodwood the last time - I expect Tom Queally won't commit his charge so early here. Last year's dual Oaks winner Sariska had Henry Cecil's filly beaten on both occasions - it's worth noting Midday has never won at the trip. Of the principals Sariska looks the percentage call while Snow Fairy is the most interesting but the layers don't look to be taking any chances. Meeznah ran second at a big price in this year's Oaks and looked for all the world as though she was going to pull off a major shock until headed near the line; her subsequent fourth at the Curragh was less impressive but at the prices I'll forgive that effort and have an each-way bet on Meeznah at 16/1 provided the rain stays away and the eight get to post.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
A quick Ebor tip for the Ebor meeting
My two regular readers, faithful but penniless, know that this season I've been struck by how many NH trained horses have plundered long distance races on the Flat. Overturn continued the trend by taking Newcastle's Northumberland Plate from an unfancied draw before running away with last month's Galway Hurdle. He doesn't have the best of draws here and hardly offers value in this ultra competitive event but is respected nonetheless. The one that caught my eye was Desert Sea who ran third behind Overturn in the Newcastle Plate; he reopposes here four pounds better off for a three and a quarter length beating. He wouldn't necessarily appreciate any rain but has a decent draw, should benefit from the slightly shorter trip and is priced up at 28/1 with a couple of layers this evening (Victor Chandler and Stan James). I'll take a small each-way interest in Desert Sea, noting that all layers go a quarter the odds four places for this heritage handicap.
No bet in the Gimcrack but I'd be thinking long and hard before opposing Temple Meads who looked impressive in winning Newbury's Super Sprint and is expected to relish the step up to six furlongs.
I fancied Ask for the Lonsdale Cup but he was found lame this morning and is a non-runner. Illustrious Blue and Electrolyser fought out the finish to the Goodwood Cup three weeks ago, the former prevailing by just over a length on that occasion; many will fancy Electrolyser here three pounds better off. The Queen's gelding Free Agent was hampered in that same race and finished fourth, having won at this course previously; he isn't one I'd trust implicitly. I think I'm going to watch from the sidelines...
No bet in the Gimcrack but I'd be thinking long and hard before opposing Temple Meads who looked impressive in winning Newbury's Super Sprint and is expected to relish the step up to six furlongs.
I fancied Ask for the Lonsdale Cup but he was found lame this morning and is a non-runner. Illustrious Blue and Electrolyser fought out the finish to the Goodwood Cup three weeks ago, the former prevailing by just over a length on that occasion; many will fancy Electrolyser here three pounds better off. The Queen's gelding Free Agent was hampered in that same race and finished fourth, having won at this course previously; he isn't one I'd trust implicitly. I think I'm going to watch from the sidelines...
Monday, August 16, 2010
Ebor meeting - Juddmonte International
Very hastily written lines before the first day of York's Ebor meeting...
The Acomb Stakes (2.15) for two-year-olds over seven furlongs looks fascinating but is well outside my comfort zone. The Great Voltigeur isn't a great race for favourites (two winners in the past decade) but the market has proved a decent guide to the International (3.25) with six winners in the same timeframe. Rip Van Winkle is likely to head tomorrow's market but he hasn't won over this distance, a comment that also applies to the only three-year-old in the field, Dick Turpin. Byword beat Twice Over in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot; drying ground will help Henry Cecil's bay but I take Andre Fabre's Byword to collect the spoils.
The Acomb Stakes (2.15) for two-year-olds over seven furlongs looks fascinating but is well outside my comfort zone. The Great Voltigeur isn't a great race for favourites (two winners in the past decade) but the market has proved a decent guide to the International (3.25) with six winners in the same timeframe. Rip Van Winkle is likely to head tomorrow's market but he hasn't won over this distance, a comment that also applies to the only three-year-old in the field, Dick Turpin. Byword beat Twice Over in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot; drying ground will help Henry Cecil's bay but I take Andre Fabre's Byword to collect the spoils.
Friday, July 23, 2010
One Group One and One Group Two
A select field of just six will face the starter at 4.25 for tomorrow's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - this evening it was announced that John Gosden's mare Dar Re Mi, owned by Lord Lloyd Weber, will miss the race on account of a bruised foot. The three-year-olds, the 'classic generation', have a good record in this which augurs well for impressive Derby winner Workforce as well as Cape Blanco; the favourite has collected the spoils on eight occasions in the last ten years. In today's Times Alan Lee reports trainer Sir Michael Stoute warning that the biggest threat to the market leader may come from within his own stable - Harbinger has progressed very well since his win in the Hardwicke Stakes five weeks ago. The stable's other runner, Confront, has been allocated pacemakng duties and for that reason is quoted at 250/1. It is not surprising stable jock Ryan Moore elected to stick with the horse that won Epsom's showpiece. The lead story in today's Racing Post informed us the layers were out to 'get' Workforce - he's best-priced 11/10 with William Hill and Coral this evening. Workforce is my idea of the winner in a race that doesn't really make that much appeal as a betting medium. In search of a bit of value, I'm going to take an each-way interest in Daryakana at 16/1. The last filly to win this was Time Charter in 1983 - having said that, Alain de Royer-Dupre's charge prefers racing right-handed, beat the colts in the Hong Kong Vase last December and has been trained specifically for this race since.
Up at York the bare eight go to post for the Sky Bet York Stakes at 3.05 - this evening several bookmakers go 4/1 the field. On official ratings Monitor Closely is the best horse in the race; Michael Bell's colt hasn't been seen out since last September when he finished third in the St Leger behind Mastery. He may just need the run while the step back in trip doesn't look in his favour. John Gosden's Debussy is likely to appreciate cut in the ground while the two Godolphin runners are of some interest. Balius is the higher rated of the two but is making his seasonal debut; Allybar finished third behind Gloria De Campeao on his penultimate run in the Dubai World Cup. That race took place on sand and looks good form - I fancied him at a price for the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot the next time provided, of course, he could transfer that form to the turf. In the event, he ruined his chance by pulling too hard in the early stages so I'd be willing to forgive but I'm not convinced he'll handle easier conditions here. Debussy ran creditably at an even bigger price in that same Ascot race, fading inside the final furlong to finish seventh, beaten under four and a half lengths. 4/1 Debussy is the bet.
Up at York the bare eight go to post for the Sky Bet York Stakes at 3.05 - this evening several bookmakers go 4/1 the field. On official ratings Monitor Closely is the best horse in the race; Michael Bell's colt hasn't been seen out since last September when he finished third in the St Leger behind Mastery. He may just need the run while the step back in trip doesn't look in his favour. John Gosden's Debussy is likely to appreciate cut in the ground while the two Godolphin runners are of some interest. Balius is the higher rated of the two but is making his seasonal debut; Allybar finished third behind Gloria De Campeao on his penultimate run in the Dubai World Cup. That race took place on sand and looks good form - I fancied him at a price for the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot the next time provided, of course, he could transfer that form to the turf. In the event, he ruined his chance by pulling too hard in the early stages so I'd be willing to forgive but I'm not convinced he'll handle easier conditions here. Debussy ran creditably at an even bigger price in that same Ascot race, fading inside the final furlong to finish seventh, beaten under four and a half lengths. 4/1 Debussy is the bet.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Eclectic thoughts on Saturday's cards....
With so many cards on offer tomorrow, it's difficult to know where to concentrate the effort...
The 51st running of the John Smith's Cup takes place on the Knavesmire at 3.05; twenty are set to face the starter. I used to think a single figure draw was an advantage not to be sniffed at in this but over the past ten years the winners have been drawn wide on four occasions, Sirvino taking the spoils from stall sixteen last year. The last three-year-old to win was Sir Mark Prescott's Foreign Affairs in 2001 which doesn't bode all that well for the well-touted Wigmore Hall who appears to have been tipped up by the world and his wife and now has a price to reflect that fact. Four-year-olds have won six of the last seven runnings - Sir Michael Stoute's Imposing will be popular and another with a price to match. Demolition is one of five from Richard Fahey's stable - he ran well behind easy Haydock winner Dangerous Midge last weekend but this may come a bit quick. Tom Tate runs two - I'll take a small each-way interest in Kings Gambit (14/1) with Jamie Spencer up. This one was noted doing his best work at the business end to take second in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot three weeks ago.
Northumberland Plate form gives a pointer to several in the Silver Cup at 3.40. Drunken Sailor ran second, Deauville Flyer (backed as though defeat was out of the question) fifth, Chiberta King tenth (and likely to appreciate the drop back to 14 furlongs) while Sabotage finished seventeenth of the nineteen runners. At the prices on offer I'll take a chance with Chiberta King at 5/1 (or bigger). It should be noted that although Richard Hannon's horses are in fine form at the moment, this season the handler hasn't managed to get to grips with The Queen's horse, Free Agent; I imagine Her Majesty is far from amused...
At Ascot Paco Boy won't take his chance in the Summer Mile and as a result we're left with a field of ten in what looks a very trappy affair. Dream Eater stayed on at one pace to take third off Zacinto in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot but doesn't make much appeal while Premier Loco can be a tricky ride. Two-year-old nurseries over six furlongs are well out of my comfort zone but earlier today I saw a word for Major Conquest in the 2.20.
The feature at Chester is the listed City Wall Stakes at 3.20. Last year's winner Borderlescott looks the one to beat again this year and he has a plum draw in stall one. Blue Jack is of interest having finished behind Equiano and Kingsgate Native in Group races this season. Owned by Andrew 'Bert' Black and Michael Owen, the gelding is highly regarded and many will think worth a second look at 10/1. There are reservations though - a poor draw (stall nine), quiet stable form and in a review printed earlier in the season, the handler expressed concerns as to how his charge would take to Chester's tight turns. In the opener Ashram looks a play against short-priced favourite Lord Shanakill.
The 51st running of the John Smith's Cup takes place on the Knavesmire at 3.05; twenty are set to face the starter. I used to think a single figure draw was an advantage not to be sniffed at in this but over the past ten years the winners have been drawn wide on four occasions, Sirvino taking the spoils from stall sixteen last year. The last three-year-old to win was Sir Mark Prescott's Foreign Affairs in 2001 which doesn't bode all that well for the well-touted Wigmore Hall who appears to have been tipped up by the world and his wife and now has a price to reflect that fact. Four-year-olds have won six of the last seven runnings - Sir Michael Stoute's Imposing will be popular and another with a price to match. Demolition is one of five from Richard Fahey's stable - he ran well behind easy Haydock winner Dangerous Midge last weekend but this may come a bit quick. Tom Tate runs two - I'll take a small each-way interest in Kings Gambit (14/1) with Jamie Spencer up. This one was noted doing his best work at the business end to take second in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot three weeks ago.
Northumberland Plate form gives a pointer to several in the Silver Cup at 3.40. Drunken Sailor ran second, Deauville Flyer (backed as though defeat was out of the question) fifth, Chiberta King tenth (and likely to appreciate the drop back to 14 furlongs) while Sabotage finished seventeenth of the nineteen runners. At the prices on offer I'll take a chance with Chiberta King at 5/1 (or bigger). It should be noted that although Richard Hannon's horses are in fine form at the moment, this season the handler hasn't managed to get to grips with The Queen's horse, Free Agent; I imagine Her Majesty is far from amused...
At Ascot Paco Boy won't take his chance in the Summer Mile and as a result we're left with a field of ten in what looks a very trappy affair. Dream Eater stayed on at one pace to take third off Zacinto in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot but doesn't make much appeal while Premier Loco can be a tricky ride. Two-year-old nurseries over six furlongs are well out of my comfort zone but earlier today I saw a word for Major Conquest in the 2.20.
The feature at Chester is the listed City Wall Stakes at 3.20. Last year's winner Borderlescott looks the one to beat again this year and he has a plum draw in stall one. Blue Jack is of interest having finished behind Equiano and Kingsgate Native in Group races this season. Owned by Andrew 'Bert' Black and Michael Owen, the gelding is highly regarded and many will think worth a second look at 10/1. There are reservations though - a poor draw (stall nine), quiet stable form and in a review printed earlier in the season, the handler expressed concerns as to how his charge would take to Chester's tight turns. In the opener Ashram looks a play against short-priced favourite Lord Shanakill.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
A week away...
I returned from a week's holiday to reports of a record crowd at Newbury, explained by the fact that Simply Red were playing after racing... Godolphin's Kite Wood took the Geoffrey Freer in fine style and is now quoted second favourite with most firms for the St Leger which is set to be run on September 12th - William Hill offer 5/1. Godolphin's other high profile runner at the meeting, Evasive, was sent off the 10/11 favourite for the Hungerford Stakes but disappointed, trailling in a well-beaten sixth behind the quirky but talented Balthazaar's Gift.
At Newmarket sixteen grey horses contested the snappily-named 'Win £100,000 With Soccer Saturday Super 6 Grey Horse Handicap'; Sarah's Art, trained by Steph Liddiard, collected the spoils. The same trainer had provided something of a shock two days earlier when 25/1 shot Mac Love took the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes run over a mile at Salisbury, beating odds-on hotpot Confront one and a half lengths.
York will be the centre of attention this week. On Tuesday Sea The Stars faces just four rivals in the Juddmonte International while current St Leger favourite Harbinger doesn't appear to have the easiest of tasks in the Great Voltigeur. Wednesday's main feature is the Ebor, in which I'm looking to have an each-way bet on Alan King's Manyriverstocross. In the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday Michael Bell's Sariska could make her reappearance after winning the Irish Oaks in sensational style. I think regular pilot Jamie Spencer is set to serve a suspension so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride if the filly is allowed to take her chance. The Nunthorpe run over five furlongs is Friday's highlight - Kingsgate Native won the race two years ago when trained by John Best; Sir Michael Stoute will be hoping for a repeat in this year's renewal.
I'm not keen on holidays for a variety of reasons, one of which is that when you return from the horror of it all, you then have to wade through hundreds of emails, thousands if you're popular but I wouldn't know about that, the vast majority of which are of no interest whatsoever. Two from this year's trawl...
Firstly, Ashley Rumney's Trainers Jumps Statistics 2008-2009 was published on Friday (according to Amazon) and is available with a 15% discount from that supplier. Secondly, readers may be interested to learn that the Racing Post continues to pursue my custom. A fortnight after helpfully bringing to my attention the fact I could subscribe to their Members' Club at the price of a third of a loaf of bread a day, the RP has been shopping down Sainsbury's again. This time I'm informed the cost of the Members' Club is half the price of a bottle of water a day - the water in question being the 500ml Highland Spring Sportscap (June 2009 price). Bread, water, whatever will be next on the RP's shopping list? And will they continue to shop at Sainsbury's? To find out the answers to these burning questions, I'm deliberately going to refrain from subscribing. Rest assured though, I shall keep you informed of all developments.
At Newmarket sixteen grey horses contested the snappily-named 'Win £100,000 With Soccer Saturday Super 6 Grey Horse Handicap'; Sarah's Art, trained by Steph Liddiard, collected the spoils. The same trainer had provided something of a shock two days earlier when 25/1 shot Mac Love took the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes run over a mile at Salisbury, beating odds-on hotpot Confront one and a half lengths.
York will be the centre of attention this week. On Tuesday Sea The Stars faces just four rivals in the Juddmonte International while current St Leger favourite Harbinger doesn't appear to have the easiest of tasks in the Great Voltigeur. Wednesday's main feature is the Ebor, in which I'm looking to have an each-way bet on Alan King's Manyriverstocross. In the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday Michael Bell's Sariska could make her reappearance after winning the Irish Oaks in sensational style. I think regular pilot Jamie Spencer is set to serve a suspension so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride if the filly is allowed to take her chance. The Nunthorpe run over five furlongs is Friday's highlight - Kingsgate Native won the race two years ago when trained by John Best; Sir Michael Stoute will be hoping for a repeat in this year's renewal.
I'm not keen on holidays for a variety of reasons, one of which is that when you return from the horror of it all, you then have to wade through hundreds of emails, thousands if you're popular but I wouldn't know about that, the vast majority of which are of no interest whatsoever. Two from this year's trawl...
Firstly, Ashley Rumney's Trainers Jumps Statistics 2008-2009 was published on Friday (according to Amazon) and is available with a 15% discount from that supplier. Secondly, readers may be interested to learn that the Racing Post continues to pursue my custom. A fortnight after helpfully bringing to my attention the fact I could subscribe to their Members' Club at the price of a third of a loaf of bread a day, the RP has been shopping down Sainsbury's again. This time I'm informed the cost of the Members' Club is half the price of a bottle of water a day - the water in question being the 500ml Highland Spring Sportscap (June 2009 price). Bread, water, whatever will be next on the RP's shopping list? And will they continue to shop at Sainsbury's? To find out the answers to these burning questions, I'm deliberately going to refrain from subscribing. Rest assured though, I shall keep you informed of all developments.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Ascot, York and Chester
The highlight at Ascot tomorrow is the Group 2 Summer Mile due off at 2.50. Ceasare won this race in 2007 and finished third last year; he's the top-rated horse but at the age of eight you can't help but wonder whether his best days are behind him and the stable's form has been something of a worry this season. Aqlaam finished half a length behind Cesare in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot just over three weeks ago, the pair well beaten by Paco Boy (who finished fourth in the Darley July Cup at Newmarket this afternoon); Willie Haggas' charge hasn't won over this trip but I'm sure the trainer will fancy his chances of reversing form with Cesare. Mike De Kock trained Archipenko to take this last year and has been bullish about Imbongi's chance - that one won a seven furlong Group 3 at Newmarket last time with the minimum of fuss. In my book Dream Eater has been slightly disappointing this season; he often pulls in the early stages which doesn't help at the business end - he has place prospects at best. This is an intriguing affair; I'm going to risk Imbongi staying this stiff mile - he should certainly handle underfoot conditions, with further rain a distinct possibility.
The feature at York is the 50th running of the John Smith's Cup which looks as competitive as ever. Luca Cumani thinks his well-touted Riggins will stay the trip. I won't be taking part in this - if I had to have a bet, I'd look for something that is set to carry less than nine stones, has a single-figure draw and is four or five years old. If the rain arrives, I'll consider an each-way interest in Willie Musson's Magicalmysterytour at 12/1 or bigger in the Silver Cup at 3.45.
At Chester the five furlong City Wall Stakes is due off at 3.30. Several of these finished behind Scenic Blast in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot - Captain Gerrard (fourth), Borderlescott (fifth), Hoh Hoh Hoh (thirteenth) and Rievaulx World (fifteenth). In addition Tax Free looked like getting involved when impeded over a furlong out; that effort will give Dandy Nicholls a benchmark for his three runners here. The draw over sprint distances is always so important at Chester - six of the last nine winners have come from stalls 1-4. As a play against the well-drawn favourite Borderlescott I've considered Masta Plasta, Captain Gerrard and Hoh Hoh Hoh. Captain Gerrard has disappointed twice since Ascot, finishing tenth of eleven at Sandwon last week, but I'm going to give him another chance as he has course and distance winning form. If his price is big enough on the day, I'll take an each-way interest. Other runners at Chester worth a second look: Just Mandy (4.05) and Zuwaar (4.40) - the stable boasts a 37.5% win strike rate over the past fortnight.
The feature at York is the 50th running of the John Smith's Cup which looks as competitive as ever. Luca Cumani thinks his well-touted Riggins will stay the trip. I won't be taking part in this - if I had to have a bet, I'd look for something that is set to carry less than nine stones, has a single-figure draw and is four or five years old. If the rain arrives, I'll consider an each-way interest in Willie Musson's Magicalmysterytour at 12/1 or bigger in the Silver Cup at 3.45.
At Chester the five furlong City Wall Stakes is due off at 3.30. Several of these finished behind Scenic Blast in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot - Captain Gerrard (fourth), Borderlescott (fifth), Hoh Hoh Hoh (thirteenth) and Rievaulx World (fifteenth). In addition Tax Free looked like getting involved when impeded over a furlong out; that effort will give Dandy Nicholls a benchmark for his three runners here. The draw over sprint distances is always so important at Chester - six of the last nine winners have come from stalls 1-4. As a play against the well-drawn favourite Borderlescott I've considered Masta Plasta, Captain Gerrard and Hoh Hoh Hoh. Captain Gerrard has disappointed twice since Ascot, finishing tenth of eleven at Sandwon last week, but I'm going to give him another chance as he has course and distance winning form. If his price is big enough on the day, I'll take an each-way interest. Other runners at Chester worth a second look: Just Mandy (4.05) and Zuwaar (4.40) - the stable boasts a 37.5% win strike rate over the past fortnight.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Haydock and York on Saturday
My guess is that several potential customers who might have gone to Haydock this Saturday will be travelling down to Wembley instead to watch Everton play Chelsea in the FA Cup final. The feature on the day's card is the Group Three Timeform Jury John Of Gaunt Stakes which is run over a distance of seven furlongs and thirty yards. A fortnight ago Sir Michael Stoute's Main Aim won the Berry Bros & Rudd handicap over Newbury's six furlongs by an astonishing seven lengths. He steps up in class and trip here but handles cut in the ground and is likely to go off favourite, with the Stoute yard generally in excellent form despite two seconds in the feature races at Sandown on Thursday evening. The official handicapper rates Arabian Gleam the best horse in the race; Jeremy Noseda's charge carries a five pound penalty on his first run of the season and the yard has been out of sorts of late. Godolphin's Asset won a listed event at Leicester last time out but hung badly right in the final stages; using the ratings as a guide he has plenty to find with several of these. Course and distance winner Beacon Lodge makes more appeal but I'm going to take another chance with Tariq after his sixth in the Lockinge, beaten under four lengths over a trip that is probably a shade beyond his best. This seven furlongs should suit, as should the drop in class and the underfoot conditions. The stable has been going through something of a purple patch recently; in the early tissue prices Chapple-Hyam's charge is a 10/1 shot which looks excellent each-way value.
At York the Stowe Family Law LLP Grand Cup run over one and three quarter miles has just the eight runners and something of a trappy feel to it. One of my old favourites, Yellowstone, runs in this but he was rather disappointing on his seasonal debut. He's entitled to be right there on his best form, but I'm going to look elsewhere. Friston Forest will have his supporters and it would be unwise to totally dismiss Nicky Henderson's Cesarewitch winner Carraciola who, at the grand age of twelve, has spent the winter months hurdling over distances of two miles four and beyond. However I'm going to take a chance with another who has hurdling form to his name - Furmigadelagiusta. He beat Sahrati three and three quarters lengths here fifteen days ago and comes to this in decent form.
Newbury's evening card is full of class four and class five events but there's a party in the paddock after racing with Madness performing - that should ensure a few more punters pass through the gates...
At York the Stowe Family Law LLP Grand Cup run over one and three quarter miles has just the eight runners and something of a trappy feel to it. One of my old favourites, Yellowstone, runs in this but he was rather disappointing on his seasonal debut. He's entitled to be right there on his best form, but I'm going to look elsewhere. Friston Forest will have his supporters and it would be unwise to totally dismiss Nicky Henderson's Cesarewitch winner Carraciola who, at the grand age of twelve, has spent the winter months hurdling over distances of two miles four and beyond. However I'm going to take a chance with another who has hurdling form to his name - Furmigadelagiusta. He beat Sahrati three and three quarters lengths here fifteen days ago and comes to this in decent form.
Newbury's evening card is full of class four and class five events but there's a party in the paddock after racing with Madness performing - that should ensure a few more punters pass through the gates...
Sunday, May 17, 2009
To summarise...
Paco Boy failed to stay a mile on soft ground in Saturday's Juddmonte Lockinge at Newbury, John Gosden's Virtual beating Alexandros a nose. Dettori on the eventual runner-up dropped his whip well into the final furlong - did that make all the difference? Later in the afternoon Main Aim proved the proverbial Group horse in a handicap, winning the six furlong Berry Bros & Rudd Handicap by an astonishing seven lengths.
Currently the top five in the ante-post Derby market are all trained in Ireland. At this stage Rip Van Winkle, generally a 10/1 shot, offers decent value provided you take the view he'll stay -stable jockey Johnny Murtagh has expressed his concerns. The horse suffered a bruised foot in the run-up to the Guineas and John Francome was less than complimentary about the horse's appearance during the preliminaries for the classic. In the circumstances Rip Van Winkle ran well to finish fourth, especially as the stable was under something of a cloud at that time. There's improvement there but we don't know for certain he'll stay...
The Aidan O'Brien pair Black Bear Island and Freemantle took first and second in Thursday's Dante. Crowded House, the 2/1 favourite, ran flat in the trial, finished eighth and scoped badly afterwards; Brian Meehan will make a decision on his charge's particpation in the Derby within the next few days.
Currently the top five in the ante-post Derby market are all trained in Ireland. At this stage Rip Van Winkle, generally a 10/1 shot, offers decent value provided you take the view he'll stay -stable jockey Johnny Murtagh has expressed his concerns. The horse suffered a bruised foot in the run-up to the Guineas and John Francome was less than complimentary about the horse's appearance during the preliminaries for the classic. In the circumstances Rip Van Winkle ran well to finish fourth, especially as the stable was under something of a cloud at that time. There's improvement there but we don't know for certain he'll stay...
Back in March Venetia Williams won the Pertemps Final (three miles) at the Cheltenham Festival with Kayf Aramis. Two months on the same horse, with a different jockey up, wins Thursday's finale at York - Theripleycollection.com Handicap (two and a quarter miles) - by an eased-down thirteen lengths. A trip to Royal Ascot looks on the cards for this hurdler...
Earlier today I watched the BBC's coverage of the tennis exhibition matches from the new all-weather Wimbledon (roof closed). As a plug for the forthcoming Match of the Day Two programme, commentator Andrew Castle was heard to say something along the lines of '...and the [football] season's really hotting up now...' Would somebody please tell the man that Manchester United were crowned Premier League champions yesterday? Thanks.
Finally, a photo finish...
Caption: Another cert takes the wrong course, the race at his mercy. Mrs T wears the look of someone who has seen it all before...
Friday, August 22, 2008
Goodwood and Newmarket
In today's races which were rescheduled from York's abandoned meeting, Lush Lashes (evens) won the Oaks, Borderlescott (12/1) the Nunthorpe and Enawin (25/1) the St Leger Yearling Stakes at Newmarket. Over in Berkshire Shaweed (16/1) won the Gimcrack and All The Good (25/1) the Newburgh Heritage Handicap, created as a substitute for the Ebor.
Tomorrow the Lowther (1.25) and the Juddmonte International (3.35) will be staged at Newmarket while Goodwood host the Great Voltigeur (2.10).
I'm sticking with New Approach to win the Juddmonte; drier ground will suit favourite Duke Of Marmalade. Let's hope we see a race to remember.
At Goodwood I'm going to take a chance on Meydan City turning over Patkai in the Voltigeur. Patkai showed an exceptional turn of foot at Royal Ascot but I'm not certain he'll be able to display it on the softer ground he encounters here. Meydan City handles the going and offers value against the odds-on favourite.
In the Windflower March Stakes Luca Cumani's Sandbuch is the top-rated horse and gets the vote, while Raven's Pass deserves a Group 1 and can collect the Celebration Mile. He's likely to start long odds-on and consequently is no betting proposition but if the rain comes there may some value by opposing him with Bankable.
Tomorrow the Lowther (1.25) and the Juddmonte International (3.35) will be staged at Newmarket while Goodwood host the Great Voltigeur (2.10).
I'm sticking with New Approach to win the Juddmonte; drier ground will suit favourite Duke Of Marmalade. Let's hope we see a race to remember.
At Goodwood I'm going to take a chance on Meydan City turning over Patkai in the Voltigeur. Patkai showed an exceptional turn of foot at Royal Ascot but I'm not certain he'll be able to display it on the softer ground he encounters here. Meydan City handles the going and offers value against the odds-on favourite.
In the Windflower March Stakes Luca Cumani's Sandbuch is the top-rated horse and gets the vote, while Raven's Pass deserves a Group 1 and can collect the Celebration Mile. He's likely to start long odds-on and consequently is no betting proposition but if the rain comes there may some value by opposing him with Bankable.
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