Christmas conundrums at the 2021 Ascot races

The Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) poses a bit of a Christmas conundrum this year with pre-race favourite Buzz now a non-runner after suffering a fractured pelvis in his final piece of work this morning.

Thyme Hill struggled in the ground at Auteuil six weeks ago, Paisley Park was beaten fair and square last time but conqueror Thomas Darby hasn't been the most consistent in the past. Champ goes well fresh but was beaten after the first in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March while Ronald Pump is certainly consistent but Matthew Smith's charge has yet to register a victory at Grade 1 level.

All rather trappy stuff, so instead I've decided to concentrate on the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3.35) for which fourteen have been declared; the going at the time of writing is described as good to soft, soft in places.

Two pieces of recent form tie in a few of these - last month's Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and the listed December Handicap Hurdle run at Sandown a fortnight ago. 

Historically horses that have run in the Greatwood don't have a good record in this race. 

West Cork won this year's renewal of the Greatwood with No Ordinary Joe third and Tritonic fifth. The trio look closely matched on revised ratings: West Cork 141 (+7); No Ordinary Joe 136 (+3); Tritonic 141 (-1). 

Speaking about Tritonic in the Weekender Alan King states:

"...he'll have sharpened up mentally by that first run in a large field over hurdles [in the Greatwood]. 

"I hope and think he'll run well."

No Ordinary Joe looked no ordinary ride at Cheltenham, allowed to go to the front after the first but unable to go with West Cork and Adagio when challenged at the last.

At Sandown two weeks ago Samarrive arrived at the winning post eight and a half lengths ahead of everything else with Benson fourth and 100/30 favourite Metier pulled up. The handicapper has hit the winner with an 11 pound rise while both Benson and Metier carry two pounds less. 

Metier ran with the choke out that day before being pulled up from home; jockey Sam Twiston-Davies reported 'the gelding hung badly left-handed throughout and as a result was unsteerable'. In the Weekender trainer Harry Fry states:

"I think in retrospect we might have let him bowl along and not try to restrain him. One poor run does not turn a very good horse into a bad one and I'm sure he'll bounce back."  

I've seen money for Goshen during the week following an upbeat update from handler Gary Moore. A course and distance winner, Goshen was beaten 11 lengths by Buzz over an extended trip in the Coral Hurdle here last month and has been dropped four pounds for that effort.

Luttrell Lad was sent off favourite for the Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow in October but had no chance with stablemate Camprond (subsequently fourth in the Greatwood off 140) and then may have 'bumped into one' when beaten by Jpr One at even money in an Exeter novices' hurdle the following month. This is his first run in a handicap. 

The course commentator told punters at Newbury three weeks ago Onemorefortheroad was never a good idea and, with Neil King's charge priced up the outsider of four, perhaps that was sound advice - sound advice a few of us at the track decided to ignore. 

Probably for the first time since the Great Frost of 1709 such outright brazen chutzpah was rewarded; in a tactical affair Onemorefortheroad (8/1) set off in front and stayed there, coming home ahead of Captain Morgs, Gowel Road and 2021 Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory. I was particularly impressed with the winner's hurdling that day; the handicapper has adjusted his rating upwards by just three pounds.

Running over this course and distance last month, Garry Clermont looked the winner racing to the last but a messy leap allowed Captain Morgs to claim the spoils. I imagine connections will be a little miffed to have been hit with a five pound penalty for that effort.

Llandinabo Lad looked to have benefitted from the wind surgery carried out in the autumn when second at Bangor five weeks ago but the suspicion is he'd prefer more give underfoot.while Drop The Anchor's seventh behind Belfast Banter in the County Hurdle (beaten under four lengths) reads well.

Two years ago Mack The Man beat Protektorat at Sandown and was thereabouts when brought down at the final flight in the 2020 Betfair Hurdle won by Pic D'Orhy. Third in the Imperial Cup in March, his chance off a low weight is respected but the stats appear against Global Citizen - no horse older than seven has won this in the past twenty years.

We have seen some smaller fields in recent times (13 runners in 2018 and 2019) but with 14 declared tomorrow this still looks highly competitive - more Christmas conundrums than you can shake a stick at. 

The two on the shortlist are Onemorefortheroad and Benson - with preference for the latter at the odds available.

Last year Benson won Sandown's December Handicap Hurdle and then, racing off a mark of 137, was sent off 5/1 joint favourite for this, eventually finishing fourth after struggling in rear for much of the trip; he goes off 133 tomorrow. 

Beaten just under 14 lengths by Samarrive at Sandown two weeks ago, Dr Richard Newland's charge re-opposes 13 pounds better off; the vet reported the gelding lost his right fore shoe at Sandown. I'm hoping the application of a first-time visor can help to bring about the further improvement required.

Benson is the each-way suggestion, with Paddy Power and Betfair offering 14/1 at the time of writing and paying five places.

A gift horse at Christmas

Why, only the other day I turned to Beeves, my butler, and cried in complete exasperation, 'Examples of outstanding customer service are just so extremely rare these days!'

And then this happened.

It was a miserable night and a howling gale was blowing outside. I'd sent Beeves on an extraneous errand to source some cat worming tablets - we don't have a cat - when there came a loud knock at the front door. 'What's this,' I wondered to myself, 'the start of another Christmas ghost story?' It was a man from DHL. Spooky indeed.

He handed over a rather weighty package - I guessed it contained at least one bottle - and asked me to confirm the address was correct. The parcel was addressed to my wife so I quickly confirmed we were indeed the intended recipients.

After five unsuccessful attempts at spelling the surname, the man from DHL passed me his portable device, I signed it 'B. Blenkinsop', and with this unexpected package safely secure in my possession I dashed into the kitchen to inspect its contents.

The sturdy packaging, emblazoned with M&S logos on all sides, was duly opened by my wife to reveal a bottle of red, a bottle of white ('whatever mood you're in tonight') and a bottle of rosé too - all in a stunning presentation box!

Now, the sort of people I know aren't generally given to such largesse, even in the season of goodwill, but working on the assumption you should never look a gift horse in the mouth, I was all for cracking open the red there and then and setting down to a cosy night in in front of a roaring fire while the gale raged outside.

My wife though has a particular eye for the detail (especially when I happen to be engaged in a minor deception of some description) and from past experience I could just sense there was a problem brewing. The fears were confirmed when she curtly announced, 'There's a problem.'

My teensy-weensy, tentative suggestion that we at least consumed the contents of one of the bottles before asking too many questions received short shrift.

It transpired that although the package appeared correctly addressed, the accompanying Christmas message indicated its bacchanalian contents were not actually intended for my wife or me at all, but for my mother and father-in-law. My wife's sister, in a moment of festive forgetfulness, had selected the wrong shipping address for her order.

Oh dear. An easy enough mistake to make, yes, but it led to much angst and several conversations ensued.

Eventually a phone call to the Marks & Spencer Customer Service department brought about the following resolution.

M&S would send a replacement package to mother and father-in-law, completely free of charge, while we retained the presentation box containing the bottles of red, white and rosé that I'd inexplicably become rather attached to.

Of course I fully recognise Christmas is a time for families everywhere but this rather propitious outcome means I shall be drinking my in-laws' wine free of charge while they're situated some 250 miles away at the other end of the country. It's starting to feel like a really special Christmas already and, to be honest, I'd be hard pushed to see it getting that much better.

Thank you Marks and Spencer for your outstanding customer service this Christmas.

Occasional readers hoping for similar levels of largesse from this week's blog post should note that last week's selection obliged at odds of 7/1 and, as I haven't tipped two consecutive winners since the last time someone mistakenly sent my wife three bottles of wine, it's reasonably safe to assume you've missed the festive boat, so to speak.

Usually at this time of year I like a bet in the JLT Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) but this renewal looks decidedly trappy and with much of the value gone, I'll watch from the sidelines.

Nicky Henderson saddles three, all making their seasonal debuts; Call Me Lord tries three miles for the first time while Top Notch is the biggest price of the trio but this evening the Racing Post reports the gelding was 'knocked sideways' by a flu vaccination six or eight weeks ago. Last year's winner Sam Spinner would be my idea of the winner and he has been well tipped up but he was beaten fair and square by Unowhatimeanharry (in receipt of six pounds) last time and connections have now decided to try cheekpieces.

Twelve have been declared for the Tommy Whittle (Haydock 2.40) where the going is described as soft, heavy in places. Three of the field wouldn't be guaranteed to stay - Clan Legend, Whoshotwho and Ballyarthur.

The last horse older than eight to come home in front was Chives in 2004.

Kimberlite Candy won over three miles at Ayr seven weeks ago and heads the market. In his stable tour (Weekender 07-11.11.18) handler Tom Lacey described his charge as 'inconsistent' and said, '...I'd admit he could be a hard horse to catch right.'

There has been market support for Rocklander while Duel At Dawn looks to face a stiff task on his seasonal debut. Daklondike is of some interest in a first time visor; I'm just left with the impression he isn't the easiest ride.

Sharp Response ran well to finish fourth behind Lake View Lad in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle three weeks ago (third Otago Trail declared in the Garrard Silver Cup at Ascot) with the Trevor Hemmings owned Testify finishing a tailed-off sixth. Donald McCain's charge is entitled to come on for that first run after wind surgery but he will certainly need to carrying top weight here.

Top weight on heavy ground often spells trouble but I note that both Cannington Brook (2012) and Seventh Sky (2015) won carrying that same weight on heavy ground.

At the time of writing BetVictor offer 9/1 Testify and pay one fifth the odds four places. 

Previous course winner Testify is the festive each-way suggestion.

Now, what did I do with that corkscrew...

Christmas jumpers

On official ratings tomorrow's Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) looks at the mercy of last year's winner Unowhatimeanharry but his price has been steadily on the drift (out to 2/1 now) and the manner of the defeat by Beer Goggles last time has allowed room for the doubts to set in.

There's a school of thought that 'Harry', ten years old in a week or so, isn't the horse he once was.

Those looking to oppose are unlikely to be bowled over by the prices on offer.

The layers don't appear keen to take too many chances. Sam Spinner, with a record of four wins and two seconds from his six hurdle starts to date, is rated some 12 pounds inferior to the favourite yet is priced as low as 13/2 with Ladbrokes.

I like the Long Walk but this year's renewal looks difficult. Instead I've opted for an each-way chance in the concluding Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at 3.35.

Since the race's inception in 2001, no horse older than seven has secured victory and neither has one carrying top weight; last year Brain Power won under a burden of 11-11.

Elgin heads the handicap this year having won the listed William Hill Handicap Hurdle over course and distance at the beginning of last month (Air Horse One fourth, Verdana Blue fifth and Caid Du Lin seventh) and then following up in the Greatwood at Cheltenham two weeks later (Nietzsche sixth, Chesterfield tenth).

According to calculations I've carried out on the back of a discarded fag packet, Air Horse One is closely matched with both Elgin and, on a line through High Bridge, Charli Parcs, although the latter-named could well improve for his seasonal debut.

That said, Noel Fehily has ridden both Charli Parcs and Air Horse One; he was aboard the former at Newbury the last day and rides Air Horse One tomorrow.

Handler Harry Fry knows what's required - his Jolly's Cracked It dead-heated with Sternrubin last year (N. Fehily up) - and he should also have a decent idea where he lies with Air Horse One, Misterton finishing a neck second to Elgin in the Greatwood. Nicky Henderson has stated that both Charli Parcs and the mare Verdana Blue would appreciate slightly better ground.

Divin Bere, with Bryony Frost claiming five, warrants every respect; he has not been seen since finishing second in the Fred Winter and then second behind Defi Du Seuil at Aintree in April.

Seamus Mullins saddles two. Fergall ran a stormer to finish third in this last year at odds of 25/1 while Chesterfield came home eighth. The latter went on to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle but his comeback run in the Greatwood was a tad disappointing.

At the very bottom of the handicap Man Of Plenty has form behind Misterton, Limited Reserve (second in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle) and A Hare Breath which may suggest he could outrun his current odds of 66/1 (Betfair) but I'm conscious that in recent weeks blog selections have all been running like the proverbial drain...

I was taken with Air Horse One on his penultimate run here in the William Hill; Air Horse One is the each-way suggestion, available generally at 12/1 a quarter the odds four places.

On Boxing Day Bristol De Mai goes for the second leg of the £1 million bonus in the King George at Kempton.

His Racing Post rating of 189 is 11 points ahead of nearest rivals Fox Norton and Thistlecrack. That said, in a piece earlier in the week David Ashworth indicated the horse has shown his very best form on soft / heavy ground...

The going at Kempton is currently good to soft. Clerk of the course Barney Clifford states:

"I've two different forecasts, one with 20mm [of rain] and one with 5mm, so I have no idea... It's really volatile and sporadic - to have two forecasts so far apart, it's like the north and south pole. All I can do is tell people where we are."

Something to think about while the relatives squabble over Christmas dinner...

Season's greetings.

Ascot assignations

The decision of connections to send Thistlecrack chasing has opened up the three mile hurdle division this year.

The market may suggest Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle (2.25) is a one horse race but to me this looks more competitive than a number of recent renewals.

Lil Rockerfeller wouldn't be the most obvious one to start a preview with but back in September trainer Neil King named this race as the target for his five-year-old and ever since I've had the chestnut pencilled in for this race.

Lil,  having missed a couple of early season targets including the Silver Trophy at Chepstow, on account of quick ground, made his seasonal debut in the bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby where he came home third, three and a half lengths behind Silsol and subsequent Hennessy winner Native River, conceding the pair eight pounds.

Decent form and three weeks later he made Yanworth work hard enough to collect the Coral Hurdle over a trip that probably didn't play to his strengths; pilot Trevor Whelan looked to be chasing his mount for much of the final mile but the gelding kept fighting and finding more.

With Whelan currently suspended, Richard Johnson accepted the ride earlier in the week but then opted for Ballyoptic instead. That's disconcerting, as is the fact there has been no significant rainfall recently.

A more orthodox preview might begin with the chance of market leader Uknowhatimeanharry.

Unbeaten since moving to Harry Fry's yard during the summer of 2015, 'Harry' has won six on the bounce (including the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival) and has seen his official rating rise from 123 to 165; he is top-rated but is priced accordingly and looks worth opposing on grounds of value.

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls, who has sent out six winners from six runners in the past two days, is represented by Ptit Zig and Zarkander.

The former provides a yardstick for Alex De Larredya having finished nine lengths behind the French runner in the Grand Prix D'Automne Hurdle at Auteuil last month.

Previously Ptit Zig had beaten Alex in the French Champion Hurdle at the same track - Sam Twiston-Davies will need to show better form than he did for the jump jockeys team in the Markel Champions Challenge at the London Horse Show at Olympia earlier this evening...

Reve De Sivola has won three of the last four renewals and last year finished second to Thistlecrack. That said, Nick Williams' charge celebrates his twelfth birthday in two weeks' time and is another who would have preferred more rain - the favourite would appear to hold him (and Ballyoptic) on Long Distance Hurdle form at Newbury last month.

My heart tells me Lil Rockerfeller but since Baracouda's victory in 2000 only two other five-year-olds have come home in front (My Way De Solzen in 2005 and Punchestowns in 2008) while my brain tells me Alex De Larredya is the percentage call against the favourite. Daryl Jacob's mount is generally a 6/1 chance this evening.

I couldn't believe Wolf Of Windlesham was priced up 40/1 the day before the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. I've followed Wolfie since watching him win a lowly Ludlow juvenile hurdle on his first run over the sticks in October 2015.

Rated a modest 60 on the Flat, he runs off 137 tomorrow, a mark from which he won a Sandown juvenile handicap hurdle in April and the same mark from which he started in the Greatwood where he came to grief two from home while still in with 'every chance'. By off time that day his price had contracted to 20/1 and plenty more took note of what happened.

He goes in the Ladbroke at 3.35 - now named the Wessex Youth Handicap Hurdle. I shall place a highly speculative each-way wager at odds of 16/1.

Another well-known acquaintance, Johnny Og, goes in the 1.50. In January this year Martin Keighley's inmate won over this course and distance off a mark of 116 with amateur rider Mr H Hunt claiming seven; tomorrow he starts off 138.

Johnny Og is at his best when left alone in front over two miles plus on soft ground. In a field of 15 that contains the likes of Ultragold, Captain Conan and course and distance winner Dark Flame, he's unlikely to get his own way so I'm not going to partake of the 25/1 currently on offer...

Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle 2015

After a few Christmas beverages, I confess I haven't studied the form as closely as I should have...

Reve De Sivola bids to win Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle for the fourth consecutive time. Beaten a neck by Saphir Du Rheu in the Cleeve Hurdle last January, he meets that opponent four pounds better off here. Saphir Du Rheu is reverting to hurdles after finishing fifth in the Hennessy last month.

Connections thought Thistlecrack would need the run at Newbury three weeks ago but he still won well beating Deputy Dan six lengths. The second tries again four pounds worse at the weights having never won beyond two miles five.

Thistlecrack is open to improvement and probably the percentage call but Reve De Sivola has scored twice for the blog in this particular race; Reve De Sivola (9/2) gets the nod - further rain would help the cause.

In the Silver Cup at 3.00 I shall keep an eye on Katenko after 14 months on the sidelines. Venetia Williams' charge was second in this race in 2012 and won off this mark at Cheltenham in January 2013. Stable jockey Aidan Coleman takes the ride prefering Katenko to the apparently out-of-form Houblon Des Obeaux who came home ninth in the Hennessy last time.
 

Ascot's Lomg Walk Hurdle 2013

I've had more beers than I should have but, hey, it's Christmas...

Paddy Power go 7/2 Reve De Sivola for the Long Walk with Celestial Halo looking a non-runner.

Take it or leave it, but, in my humble opinion, Reve De Sivola's chance improves with every drop of rain that falls before the off. At Fishers Cross wasn't particularly fluent at the flights last time and on official ratings Reve has just one pound to find with the odds-on favourite...

Last year's winner Reve De Sivola is the value selection.

Ascot Long Walk Hurdle

Busted for time this evening after Christmas beverages (hic)...

With Big Buck's out for the remainder of the season, the Long Walk  has the look of an open contest. I'm not convinced favourite Smad Place will stay the trip (particularly on heavy ground) so Trustan Times is the selection whilst Cucumber Run (14/1) appeals as the each-way wager provided eight make it to the start.

Happy Christmas everyone!

No escape for the wicked...

It's a grim-looking picture for Saturday's scheduled turf cards. Ascot and Newcastle have already abandoned their fixtures while Haydock is subject to an inspection at 8.00 tomorrow morning. The track has frost covers in place but an inch of snow will cause problems as will the overnight temperature which is set to reach minus 5.

It looks as though the suggested displacement activity will be doing some 'last minute Christmas shopping'. The sheer agony of it all... Whatever, somebody has certainly splashed out on a Christmas present this year; an undisclosed buyer recently paid a record £10 million for George Stubbs' masterpiece Brood Mares and Foals.

A bit nearer to home, I'll be thinking more along the lines of Claire's Accessories myself...

The rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle

There's a very good card at Newbury tomorrow with the highlight being the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle at 2.40. The press has built this up into a match between Big Buck's and Diamond Harry but we can expect improvement from Karabak (who, according to John Francome, nearly blew the stands down after finishing six lengths behind Zaynar in the Coral Ascot Hurdle some six weeks ago) while Fair Along has been known to sulk on occasions in the past but is good on his day. On official ratings Fair Along is the third best horse in this eight runner race, needing to find just three pounds with Diamond Harry, yet Paddy Power offer 25/1 this evening - that has to be worth an each-way dabble with the stable in such good form, provided of course the eight make it to the start. The same layers go 12/1 Karabak which also looks tempting each-way value if you fancy that one. I expect all those taking on the current holder of the World Hurdle title here would have preferred to have done so at Ascot as Big Buck's has never raced right-handed - the snow stopped that taking place.

The Graduation Chase (1.00) looks trappy enough and should prove useful for future reference. At the weights Roll Along should beat these but he disappointed on his first run for Twiston-Davies when an even money favourite at Carlisle. I harbour a suspicion he may just prefer better ground than he's likely to encounter tomorrow.

In the Challow Finian's Rainbow went into many notebooks when winning here by fifteen lengths last month. He has another five furlongs to travel tomorrow but the last time he didn't give the impression that would cause a problem. Others worth a mention include Reve De Sivola, Manyriverstocross and Duke Of Lucca while Kennel Hill ran a stormer at odds of 100/1 when second to Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Bristol Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham just over a fortnight ago.

The north wind doth blow...

...and we shall have snow. Saturday's cards at Ascot and Newcastle have already fallen to the weather while the meeting at Haydock is subject to an inspection at 8.00 tomorrow morning. The clerk of the course describes himself as 'quietly confident' but, given the predicted temperatures, I'm more cautious. Had Ascot gone ahead, the main attraction would have been the clash between Big Buck's and Diamond Harry in the Long Walk Hurdle. It would have been the first time the two market leaders had raced right-handed, and I'd come up with this cunning plan to bet Philip Hobbs' Fair Along at a big-looking 16/1. Never mind... The Long Walk Hurdle has now been rescheduled for Tuesday 29th December at Newbury.

Should Haydock get the green light, plenty will be looking to solve the feature, the Tommy Whittle Chase, in which fifteen go to post for the three mile event. Keith Reveley's Jass is a horse I like but I suspect this trip may be his absolute minimum - he stayed on well when fourth in the Rehearsal at Newcastle three weeks ago after losing his place three quarters of a mile out. I don't think this track will play to his strengths. One that would be of some interest at a price is Mark The Book. Still a novice, he has had his training problems and didn't race in 2008 due to a tendon injury; prior to that Philip Hobbs thought the horse could go to the top. He gets in here with a racing weight but does look a little short on experience with some battle-hardened opponents in the field. I'll probably watch from the sidelines.

The opener is worth noting, with Howard Johnson's Quwetwo trying fences for the first time. My Moment jumped well to win at Warwick the last time - the fences come thick and fast down the back straight at Warwick. If I play I'll chance Ferdy Murphy's Bedlam Boy. In a recent RP Stable Tour article, his handler said the horse had some wear and tear in the joints but 'a real engine'; he's a natural front-runner, a style that suits this track.

That mention of Warwick reminds me of an offer I saw on a flyer in our local paper. Two adult tickets for £20 to any of the following meets - New Year's Eve, Classic Chase day (Saturday 16th January) and Kingmaker Day (Saturday 13th February). If you want to take up this offer, ring the course (0844 579 3013) and quote the reference 'winterflyer'.

Earlier in the week Richard Johnson rode his 2,000th winner on Fighting Chance at Newbury. There have been several tributes - I liked this piece in Tuesday's Times, written the day before Johnson became only the second jockey to reach this landmark.

With the reduced racing on offer tomorrow, there's the distinct possibility I could get roped into Christmas shopping; I've come up with a cunning wheeze if Mrs T. suggests the unthinkable. Throughout the week I've been sending a daily tweet to My Winning Chance in an attempt to win free entry into a draw to win a racehorse. My name didn't come out of the hat, but I just started dreaming, as you do. Before I knew it, I was on the Allertons website, designing my own racing silks. Think I'm going to have to do a bit more work on that, rather than traipse round the overcrowded city centre shops...

Ascot's Long Walk hurdle

After Saturday British racing takes a well earned festive break before resuming on Boxing Day. In Ascot's Long Walk hurdle the two top rated animals have questions to answer. Hardy Eustace looked as tough as ever when winning last time and is difficult to pass, but he isn't guaranteed to stay this trip and is just over a week away from his eleventh birthday. Black Jack Ketchum looks a suspect stayer too; in addition the Jonjo O'Neill operation is noticeably out of form. Two weeks ago Nick Mordin wrote a convincing piece in The Weekender highlighting Kasbah Bliss' chance for the World hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Nick argued that the key to KB was good fast ground; he'll certainly get that here and rates a value bet at around 7/1. I'd also expect Chief Dan George to improve on his most recent run where he finished last behind Inglis Drever at Newbury; a first time visor is tried here - if that does the trick I could see him running into a place at odds of 14/1.