The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 2020

The good news: racegoers will be allowed back at certain tracks from Wednesday next week.  

The bad news: there will be tiers before Christmas (as my dear old Ma always used to tell us around this time of year). 

The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase - the Hennessy Gold Cup - is the highlight on the second day of Newbury's Winter Carnival meeting. Eighteen have been declared with the going currently described as good, good to soft in places.

At the time of writing Vinndication and Kildisart share favouritism,

Vinndication finished second behind Cyrname in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby four weeks ago (Aye Right third); Kim Bailey's charge did well to finish just two lengths adrift of the winner as his jumping was pretty sketchy - and it looked positively hairy during a schooling session at the racecourse earlier this week. Some feel the gelding is better going right-handed but he has previously run and jumped well at Cheltenham (fourth behind The Conditional and Kildisart in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March, Mister Malarky pulled up); connections fit cheekpieces for the first time in the hope they'll help the cause.

Kildisart was beaten a neck by The Conditional in the Ultima and meets that rival three pounds better off; with a nice pipe-opener over hurdles under his belt (Copperhead pulled up), Ben Pauling's charge has been well supported in the market while The Conditional appears to be drifting on this seasonal debut. The horse finished a fine second behind De Rasher Counter in this race last year (Beware The Bear fourth, Mister Malarky sixth, Regal Encore pulled up) but now races off a ten pounds higher mark. 

After that effort The Conditional didn't appear to stay the extended trip of the Classic Chase at Warwick in January but I've seen a comment suggesting there were possible excuses that day and I'm just wondering whether connections are considering a repeat attempt this year. 

To my mind Black Op has never really convinced over the larger obstacles but Secret Investor was impressive beating Potterman seven lengths on good ground at Chepstow last time; his tendency to jump markedly right that day remains the worry.

Course and distance winner Copperhead looks the pick of the two Tizzard runners with connections clearly expecting a big run. He went to the Cheltenham Festival in top form but, carrying my money, he went out like a light in the RSA and his most recent effort at Wetherby didn't offer much encouragement either. His chance is respected but I can't support him on this occasion.

Stablemate Mister Malarky, sixth last year, starts from a mark one pound lower tomorrow; the fitting of first-time blinkers and the good ground could help the cause. He beat Black Corton two lengths in the Betway Chase at Kempton in February with Kildisart six lengths adrift in fifth. That form reads well but this one is a moody character who wouldn't be guaranteed to put his best foot forward.

Kim Bailey's second string Two For Gold was beaten some 17 lengths by Copperhead in the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot and on the balance of his form looks short enough in the market.

Ultra consistent Potterman has made hay over the summer and was pipped a short head by El Presente in the Badger Beers at Wincanton three weeks ago; Alan King's charge has been placed in nine of his 11 starts to date. He goes off the same mark tomorrow but is due to go up five pounds.

The two on the short list are Cloth Cap and Aye Right. 

The former carries the minimum ten stones but is guaranteed to stay having finished third behind Takingrisks in the 2019 Scottish National. 

The latter meets Vinndication seven pounds better off for five lengths but I'm concerned about how well he'll see out this extended three mile two furlong trip. Unfortunately handler Harriet Graham misses the race after being run over by her own lorry... 

In the hope the beast gets on better with the lorry on the long journey down, Aye Right is the each-way selection. At the time of writing the horse is 10/1 with Betfair who pay six places.

**

'Nicky Henderson has a particular way with fillies and mares and I'd think long and hard before you decide to lay one,' was a piece of unsolicited advice proffered to me by a tweed-clad gent in a racecourse bar a few years ago. 

Now, that's an opening gambit, and just for a minute I wondered whether I'd accidentally walked onto the set of a Carry On film, or, even worse, into a scene from a Jilly Cooper bonkbuster. 

I played it straight and told the gent concerned Polly Peachum was my favourite mare in training, named as she was after a character from The Beggar's Opera. That answer seemed to have the desired effect and the old boy sloped off to annoy someone else...

Mr Henderson saddles two high profile mares tomorrow - Epatante in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle (2.05) and Marie's Rock in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury (2.25). 

Apparently Epatante translates as 'Amazing' and while it's no surprise to see the champion hurdler priced up an odds-on chance, race-fit rivals Sceau Royal and Silver Streak look sure to provide stiff opposition. With Not So Sleepy and Cornerstone Lad in the field, a decent pace seems assured.

Epatante won last year's renewal of the Gerry Feilden off a mark of 137 so it's easy to see why layers have priced up Marie's Rock favourite with her current rating of 141. That said, her last run was 334 days ago and a number in the field are rated in the 140s including Botox Has (146); Sebastopol (142); Milkwood (141); Thyme White (141); and stablemate Floressa (141). 

Milkwood was my each-way play in the Greatwood before the rain arrived. The ground will suit here but the thing is, no matter how hard I try, I just can't forget the words of that gent in the tweed suit...

**

Finally, I intend to take an each-way interest in Mick Maestro in the 1.43 at Doncaster. 

Ashington looked unlucky when badly hampered by a faller in Tegerek's race at Cheltenham and Kevin Brogan claims seven. 

I saw Mick Maestro finish second behind New Agenda at Ludlow just over two years ago; the horse was with Alan King at the time and effectively Richard Johnson gained first run on the winner. 

Off the track for 644 days, Mick ran a stormer at odds of 66/1 on his first run for Nick Kent, finishing just under seven lengths behind Kaizer (fifth in a competitive handicap hurdle at Haydock last weekend). A lot of his racing has been on right-handed tracks and the 'bounce' factor is a concern but the better ground here is a big positive; at the time of writing bet365 offer 14/1.

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 2017

What's going on here then?

Ladbrokes take over sponsorship of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and for the inaugural running of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase William Hill and SkyBet offer each-way terms one fifth the odds seven places...

Twenty one have been declared for tomorrow's showpiece at 3.00 with the going on the chase course currently described as good to soft, soft in places. Last year Carole's Destrier finished just half a length behind impressive winner Native River with Double Ross third, Vyta Du Roc sixth and Regal Encore pulled up.

Since 2007 Denman (2009) is the only nine-year-old to have won and in the same timeframe just two have carried less than 11-0 to victory - Diamond Harry (2010) and Carruthers (2011).

Carruthers was bred by Lord Oaksey and trained by Mark Bradstock, as is tomorrow's top weight Coneygree. There won't be a dry eye in the house if connections manage to pull off the stunt again; the last ten-year-old to win was Diamond Edge in 1981.

Willie Mullins saddles two, Total Recall and Pleasant Company, with the former at the head of the market after a hint from the trainer earlier in the week the gelding may be (some way?) ahead of the handicapper. This race hasn't proved a happy hunting ground for Irish runners over the years.

American is talented, fragile and has few miles on the clock. This race has been the target for some considerable time, as it has been for Label Des Obeaux. In the Weekender Alan King states:

"My fear is that he has too much weight. Smad Place [2015 winner] was handily treated, whereas Label Des Obeaux doesn't look handicapped to win a race like this.

"We have to try and find some improvement in him, so we schooled him in cheekpieces the other day. They seemed to sharpen him up and he'll probably wear those on Saturday."

Of Nicky Henderson's pair I prefer Vyta Du Roc, sixth last year off 143, starting off 140 here and well backed, to stablemate Whisper. The latter was rated 164 behind Thistlecrack in the 2016 World Hurdle but earned a chase rating of 157 when beating Clan Des Obeaux in a match at Kempton 19 days ago; all three of his chase wins have come at distances between two mile four and two mile five furlongs.

It would be no surprise to see Singlefarmpayment in the mix; he was beaten four lengths by Cogry last time conceding 13 pounds. With Jamie Balgary's three pound claim aboard Cogry, Tom George's charge has to concede 11 pounds tomorrow so they appear more closely matched than the bookmakers' prices might indicate.

You pays your money and takes your choice.

Former Gold Cup winner Coneygree (16/1 one fifth the odds six places with Betfair) and Cogry catch the eye from a value perspective but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in the Alan King trained Label Des Obeaux, placed in seven of his nine chase starts to date.

He's currently priced up 33/1 with Betfair who pay a fifth the odds six places; William Hill offer 25/1 a fifth the odds seven places.

You pays your money and takes your choice - I'm with Betfair.

Newbury's Hennessy Gold Cup 2016

Some old friends and foes amongst the twenty declared for the 60th running of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury tomorrow (3.10).

The roll call of previous winners includes several illustrious names: Mandarin (1957, 1961); Mill House (1963); Arkle (1964, 1965); Stalbridge Colonist (1966); Spanish Steps (1969); Bregawn (1982); Brown Chamberlin (1983); Burrough Hill Lad (1984); Playschool (1987); One Man (1994); Suny Bay (1997) and Denman (2007, 2009).

Since 2000 Denman is the only horse older than eight to have come home in front.

Last year's winner Smad Place tries again but faces a stiff task off a mark 11 pounds higher (166); by contrast Saphir Du Rheu, fifth last year, appears to have been given every chance off a rating 10 pounds lower (153). I may well be proven wrong but regular readers will know I don't think Saphir jumps well enough in a big field to win a race like this.

The leading horses in the betting have form lines with each other.

Favourite Native River was beaten fair and square by Blaklion in the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby last February. After that result Colin Tizzard opted for the easier route at the Cheltenham Festival, fitting his charge with first-time cheekpieces for the four miler while Blaklion won the RSA Chase for Twiston-Davies at that meeting (Vyta Du Roc fifth, beaten ten and a half lengths).

Three and a half weeks later Native River reversed the Wetherby form in Aintree's Mildmay Novices' Chase beating Blaklion into third (Henri Parry Morgan second, Un Temps Pour Tout fourth).

Henri Parry Morgan hasn't been seen since unseating Sean Bowen in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April (Hadrian's Approach sixth, Theatre Guide eighth and Carole's Destrier eleventh) but Un Temps Pour Tout posted notice of his well-being three weeks ago by making all in a four runner hurdle to beat Vyta Du Roc eighteen lengths into third.

Taking the Cheltenham form as a benchmark, Vyta Du Roc looks closely matched with Blaklion in receipt of eleven pounds while on Aintree form Henri Parry Morgan has five pounds in hand over Native River for a three length defeat.

Vicente comes into the reckoning on the back of his win in the Scottish National (Vyta Du Roc fifth). Previously Paul Nicholls' inmate finished just under fourteen lengths behind Native River in the Festival four miler where he was hampered by a loose horse three from home. His fitness and well-being have to be taken on trust but at 20/1 he makes some appeal as an each-way wager.     

Second last year, Theatre Guide has each-way claims - off 149 he's ten pounds higher this time around - and Carole's Destrier would have been of more interest with a run under his belt. This one was fifth on his seasonal debut in Wincanton's Badger Ales last year before winning the London National at Sandown - four of his five wins to date have come on right-handed tracks.

Houblon Des Obeaux has been tipped up here and  there but I feel his best chance may have already passed - regular pilot Aidan Coleman rides Upswing for J. P. McManus.

A very open, competitive renewal for which I have two each-way suggestions:

Blaklion - Paddy Power have taken a position offering 11/1 at the time of writing and pay a quarter the odds five places - and Vicente available at 20/1 generally.

Black Friday, Hennessy Saturday

After Black Friday comes Hennessy Saturday...

In the past decade nine winners of the Hennessy Gold Cup have been aged either six or seven years old; a five-year-old has never won the race yet Willie Mullins' Djakadam is the clear market leader, priced as low as 4/1 with Boylesports.

This year in particular I'm struck by the bigger prices available about horses who can boast decent form on soft/heavy ground.

Last year's winner Triolo D'Alene may prefer better underfoot conditions but is rated a 33/1 chance while Merry King (fifth in 2013) is 16/1 with William Hill and Houblon Des Obeaux (sixth) is another priced at 33/1.

Previous Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude is 25/1 and Peter Marsh Chase winner Wychwoods Brook is 28/1 (betVictor), as is Dan Skelton's unexposed sort What A Warrior (William Hill).

You pays your money and takes your choice.

With prices like these I've ignored the market leaders and had an each-way wager on Wychwoods Brook (25/1 with SkyBet paying a quarter the odds five places) who had a nice pipe opener over hurdles at Worcester last month.

I also looked closely at Houblon Des Obeaux who will relish underfoot conditions despite top weight and would be in the mix if showing a return to his very best form - the downside is this is his first outing since April.

Back in March More Of That retained his unbeaten record to collect the Ladbrokes World Hurdle in some style.

The gelding makes his reappearance in the Long Distance Hurdle at 2.25 but Warren Greatrex's Cole Harden is likely to have a fitness edge and at 4/1 represents a play against the odds-on favourite whose stable is currently in the midst of a lean spell.

Three quick picks for Hennessy Saturday...

Presseed for time this evening so, very quickly...

Newcastle's Fighting Fifth (2.05) looks to have a little more strength in depth than in recent years. Odds-on shot My Tent Or Yours is top-rated but several of Henderson's have needed their first run. I'll oppose with Melodic Rendezvous who took the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago even though handler Jeremy Scott thought his charge would come on for the run. Should eight make it to post, 14/1 about John Quinn's four-year-old filly Cockney Sparrow looks reasonable each-way value.

This year's Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3.00) is wide open. Several fancied runners have been backed through the week, yet I suspect many of them would ideally prefer a little more cut underfoot. An each-way longshot that looks overpriced to me is Same Difference (33/1) who won at the Festival in March and went on to finish second to Quentin Collonges in Sandown's bet365 Gold Cup. On his seasonal debut at Ascot he raced prominently for a while before fading to come home some 35 lengths behind Houblon Des Obeaux (Merry King second, Triolo D'Alene third, Opening Batsman pulled up). The winner has been raised a hefty 10 pounds for that effort (stable jock Aidan Coleman prefers Katenko here) and, obviously, I'm hoping (against hope?) that run has blown away some of the cobwebs...

Opening Batsman (40/1) was amongst the market leaders for that Ascot race but was never a a factor. Still, he took the Racing Plus Chase on good grouind at Kempton in February and a return to that sort of form could see him being competitive. Same Difference is the each-way suggestion.

Finally I'm guessing Donald McCain Jnr will be trying his very hardest to win the race run in memory of his father, the Ginger McCain Memorial Novices' Chase (Bangor 12.30); Swatow Typhoon is his entry in the Class 3 event.  

The Hennessy Gold Cup and The Fighting Fifth 2012

Like many, I tend to prefer a young up-and-coming chaser for the Hennessy; the race was switched from Cheltenham to Newbury in 1960 - the number of times the variously aged horses have won is shown below:

6 year old:    7
7 year old:  21
8 year old:  11
9 year old:  10
10 year old:  2
11 year old:  1

Horses aged seven to nine have won 42 of the 52 runnings, while seven-year-olds boast a 40.38% strike rate in that period.

This year's renewal looks as competitive as ever with Nicky Henderson's RSA winner Bobs Worth priced up favourite at around the 7/2 mark. Alan King, who had a notable winner with Bless The Wings earlier today, tells us in the Weekender Hold On Julio '...is unquestionably the best chance I have had of landing the famous race', while The Package comes here in fine heart having taken Wincanton's Badger Ales Trophy three weeks ago but regular pilot Timmy Murphy may miss the ride after falling from Leeroar in Newbury's finale this afternoon.

I tipped Carruthers to win the Hennessy last year;  this year the trainer has been pretty bullish about his charge (despite a couple of below par efforts) although the horse would not want the ground to dry out too much and become sticky. Carruthers is certainly a big price and will stay the trip but I'm going to desert him for the 2011 Neptune Novices' Hurdle winner First Lieutenant. Irish trained runners have an abysmal record in the race but this one was beaten just two and a half lengths by Bobs Worth in the RSA last March; he's in receipt of one pound from that rival now and already has two runs under his belt, last time finishing a length behind Kauto Stone in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. At 10/1 he represents reasonable each-way value, although I'm not convinced the final two and a half furlongs are exactly what he needs.

Those looking for a lightweight at a price could do worse than consider the form of Alfie Spinner (18/1 Sky Bet) when finishing two and three quarter lengths behind Bobs Worth, both beaten by Invictus at Ascot in February; Invictus was to be my selection for the RSA in March but he picked up an injury and never made the race...

In a nutshell, two each-way chances against the field - First Lieutenant (10/1) and Alfie Spinner (18/1).

There's an eight o'clock inspection up at Newcastle tomorrow morning; if the meeting gets the go-ahead there will be just four runners in the Fighting Fifth. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes races off 151 and is priced up odds on this evening while Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame, rated 152, is on offer at 4/1 with several layers. No four-year-old has won this in the past decade but John Quinn's charge comes here fit from the Flat (he was second in Cesarewitch) and may handle the ground better than the favourite. The McCain operation has had a couple of winners of late but certainly hasn't been firing on all cylinders and the handler hints his charge will come on for the run. Obviously a tactical affair is the danger with such a small field - I just wonder whether Denis O'Regan may try to race from the front on Countrywide Flame. At 4/1 Countrywide Flame represents a value play against Cinders And Ashes.

The Hennessy and the Fighting Fifth

After Kauto's heroics in last week's Betfair Chase, this week's Hennessy just hasn't captured the imagination. Old-timers such as myself often witter on about the Hennessy going to a young up-and-coming sort but as Tom Segal points out in the Weekender, last season's top novices looked distinctly average in the Betfair. I bet Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA last March but he's not the most proficient of jumpers; Wymott's stable jock Jason Maguire prefers Peddlers Cross at Bangor and a quick trip to Newcastle to partner Overturn; Great Endeavour looked good in the Paddy Power but hasn't won over further than two miles six while The Giant Bolster has failed to complete on four of his six chase starts. So, of the younger brigade, Wayward Prince, third in the RSA and fourth behind the well-regarded Quito De La Roque at Aintree three weeks later (Sarando beaten just a neck into second) makes some appeal; trainer Ian Williams sounds hopeful enough and in the past fortnight has sent out seven winners from 36 runners. Of the more established entrants, top weight Neptune Collonges has Harry Dereham take seven pounds off but didn't really hit the heights last season following a long break after injury - since 1957 only three horses older than nine have won: Mandarin (1961), Rondetto (1967) and Diamond Edge (1981). Blazing Bailey is an outside chance while there's a hint Beshabar has the National as his target. Running one pound out of the handicap, Carruthers finished sixth in this last year off a mark of 155 - he returns this time off 146 and ran well on his seasonal debut behind Galaxy Rock at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Connections try a tongue-tie for the first-time - 20/1 with totesport looks reasonable each-way value. This evening two layers offer a quarter the odds five places on this race - bet365 and Paddy Power.

The sole tip to oblige last week was Overturn and many will tell me that was only because Oscar Whisky fell when challenging at the last. That said, I'm not inclined to desert him against former champion hurdler Binocular in the Fighting Fifth. Nicky Henderson's charge has been sent off an odds-on chance in this race on each of the past two runnings and has been beaten on both occasions. The word from the Henderson yard is their charge is fit and ready this year. Celestial Halo is worthy of every respect but at this evening's prices the 7/2 Ladbrokes offer about Overturn looks particularly tempting.

Big Buck's returns in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle (2.35); pilot Ruby Walsh was stood down after a fall from Sollim earlier today but he is expected to be fit to ride tomorrow.

All eyes will be on Peddlers Cross who continues his education over the larger obstacles in the opener at Bangor (12.10). At the same track Scholastica goes in the concluding mares' bumper (3.35) and is worth noting for future reference whatever happens here.

A sad weekend for racing

There were traumatic scenes at Newbury yesterday as two horses, Fenix Two and Marching Song, collapsed and died in the parade ring before the opening race. The horses appear to have been electrocuted - the suspicion is an underground cable may have been disturbed during recent maintenance work; this evening The Sporting Life reports a section of cable has been removed from the racecourse paddock area. Two other horses, Kid Cassidy and The Merry Giant, were also affected; Kid Cassidy was withdrawn at the start while The Merry Giant was allowed to take his chance in the opener but was reported 'badly traumatised' after the race. Once the seriousness of the incident became apparent, the remainder of the card was rightly abandoned, with the racecourse offering racegoers a full money refund. The BHA intend to make a further statement tomorrow.

In what has turned out to be a disastrous weekend for horse-racing, both Money Trix and Glencove Marina suffered fatal injuries in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown while at Warwick Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry had to be put down following an injury sustained at the penultimate flight in the Kingmaker.

Newbury also managed to make the headlines in The Times' business section on Saturday - Guiness Peat Group, which owns a 29.9% stake in the racecourse, is looking to sell off its investment portfolio. Ever fancied a share in a racecourse?

With the Cheltenham Festival little over a month away, I need to do some homework on a few potential longshots. Here's an initial list that needs plenty of work but might prove a useful starting point...

Mille Chief - 14/1 Champion Hurdle (totesport). Likely to run in the Kingwell at Wincanton.

Cue Card - 33/1 Champion Hurdle (Stan James). Colin Tizzard writing in the Weekender says a decision will be taken on Cue Card's Festival target by the weekend.

Knockara Beau - 16/1 Pertemps Final. Looks to have benifitted from return to hurdling. Fifth in Ballymore / Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet.

The Giant Bolster - 25/1 RSA Chase. Not the quickest but will be staying on when others have cried enough - a blog favourite.

Tarablaze - 25/1 RSA Chase. Well backed in the past few days.

Captain Cee Bee - 12/1 Champion Chase (totesport). McCoy rated this one his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival but the horse broke a blood vessel in the Arkle. Went on to win Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown.

What A Friend - 40/1 Gold Cup (Coral). Looks overpriced on Aintree Bowl victory last April.

China Rock - 66/1 Gold Cup. Not certain to line up and several question marks over his stamina - will he come up hill? Probably not, but the price is big and he's likely to appreciate good ground.

Finally, finishing on a much-needed lighter note, the Daily Mail recently reported Welsh Cob Basil the stallion likes to pop down to his local, The Meynell Ingram Arms in Burton, Staffordshire, for a pint of Marston's Pedigree. If you're asking, Basil, mine's a Guinness...

Quick thoughts on Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown

Punchestowns took the Graduation Chase at Kempton earlier today and in the process helped Nicky Henderson reach 2,000 career wins but for much of the trip the 4/6 favourite looked in trouble behind the front-running Pasco. However the grey slowed markedly up the home straight thereby allowing Barry Geraghty to galvanise his mount to an improbable eleven length victory. Pasco finished distressed in second; after the race trainer Paul Nicholls sent out a tweet indicating the grey had choked and would be sent for a breathing operation in due course.

Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...

Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.

The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...

Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)

Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.

At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.

At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.

One day after the Hennessy

Diamond Harry's victory in yesterday's Hennessy appears to have generated a difference of opinion amongst the odds compilers; Nick Williams' gelding is quoted 16/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup with Coral while Labrokes and totesport offer a miserly-looking 8/1.

Although coming home some 15 lengths third behind Diamond Harry, Denman still put in a fantastic performance at the weights. Owner Paul Barber reported his pride and joy was in 'mint condition' following the race; that's very good news indeed - just for a fraction of a second as they walked back to the unsaddling enclosure I wondered whether, understandably, the great horse looked a little unsteady on his feet. I've just finished reading Jonathan Powell's Kauto Star and Denman -it's easy to forget that this horse was very ill suffering from atrial fibrillation of the heart (irregular heartbeat) after his Gold Cup victory in 2008.

There's more positive news this evening concerning Noel Fehily - it was feared the jock had broken his wrist in a fall at Newbury on Friday. Agent Chris Broad reports the wrist may not be broken; Noel goes back to hospital early in the week for an X-ray after the swelling has gone down a little.

The cold spell looks set to play havoc with this week's turf fixtures. Monday's card at Ffos Las together with Tuesday's meetings at Hereford and Southwell have been abandoned while Saturday's Tingle Creek fixture at Sandown has already been deemed at risk.

It's envisaged that Tony McCoy will be named as one of the ten personalities who will contest the BBC's Sports Personality of the Year 2010. The continuing rumblings about the ride McCoy gave Get Me Out Of Here at Ascot on 30th October have generated some unwanted publicity for the champ at a time when he could really do without it. At The Races presenter Sean Boyce gives a detailed exposition of events on his blog while The Guardian's Greg Wood accuses McCoy of petulance.

Finally, on Saturday evening, after the excitement of the Hennessy, Mrs Tips and I settled down for the next installment of the BBC's Strictly Come Dancing. Half way through the live show a pre-recorded piece was shown in which the remaining contestants, dressed in cowboy-style uniforms, assessed their chances using suitably extravagant Wild West language. The backdrop for Pamela Stephenson's monologue included what looked to be a rather large plastic horse; quick as a flash Mrs Tips pipes up, 'That plastic horse - it's showing a damn sight more interest than your each-way selection in the Hennessy.' Cutting.

Hennessy day 2010

Every now and again you hear people talk about the glorious uncertainty of racing; Noel Fehily will hardly be describing that uncertainty as glorious this evening. Having built up a decent relationship with Paul Nicholls in recent weeks, and with the plum ride on Kauto Star to look forward to over Christmas, the jock suffered a suspected broken wrist when Rivaliste fell in a handicap chase at Newbury earlier this afternoon. He is destined for a spell on the sidelines.

Whatever, the show goes on (provided, of course, the frost covers are in place and the snow stays away). The highlight of tomorrow's excellent card at Newbury is the Hennessy Gold Cup, with strong support provided by the re-scheduled Fighting Fifth in which champion hurdler Binocular makes his seasonal debut, the Gerry Feidlen and the Long Distance hurdle.

Denman tops the weights in the showpiece and attempts to make history by becoming the first horse to win the Hennessy three times. The vibes coming from the Nicholls stable have been particularly positive; the layers make the ten-year-old chestnut their 4/1 favourite. This looks a fiendishly competitive race though, probably the best Hennessy we've seen for a number of years, yet only seven of the eighteen are set to carrry their long handicap weight. Of the fancied runners Weird Al is the one I like - he was my idea of the RSA winner at Cheltenham last March but he picked up an injury a week or so before the race and missed the date. He dead-heated with Little Josh over an inadequate two and a half miles at Carlisle at the end of October; two weeks later Little Josh came out to make all and win the Paddy Power Gold Cup. The Hennessy often goes to an emerging type - eight of the last ten winners have been aged either six or seven - so he certainly has the right profile while trainer Ian Williams boasts a 20% strike rate in the past fortnight. Of the bigger priced runners, I considered Silver By Nature but suspect he'd want deeper ground while Neptune Collonges would be a live threat if back to his best following a long lay-off - this one was just seven lengths behind Denman in the 2008 Gold Cup and has a big pull at the weights. Niche Market ran a cracker for the blog in this race last year finishing third at 33/1 while Colin Tizzard certainly rates Hey Big Spender who beat Big Fella Thanks at Carlisle the last time. The name Harry Findlay will be forever associated with Denman but he's likely to have divided loyalties here with his Big Fella Thanks in with a fighting chance. For a longhsot I'm going to stick my neck out and chance a little each-way on Razor Royale, mainly on the back of a Twiston-Davies comment earlier this autumn that he considered this horse the one from his yard who would give Imperial Commander most to do in a Gold Cup. The horse travelled well for a long way on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but then disappeared in a similar manner to that used by several girls I once knew. That was a bit disconcerting, as is the fact stable jock Paddy Brennan prefers Weird Al and - ideally - the gelding would want more cut yet the books are offering 66/1 about a horse that won the Racing Post Chase. On the grounds that a layer is never going to give you those sort of odds about a cert, I'll have a little each-way on Razor Royale.

Just five in the Fighting Fifth with champion hurdler Binocular pleasing connections and unsurprisingly marked up an odds-on chance. I'm wary as the race could become tactical; three of the five - Binocular, Starluck and Nearby, look as though they want holding up. It's a guess but I envisage Bygones of Brid making the pace with Peddlers Cross in attendance while the others bide their time. On ratings Starluck is the one who would benefit should something go amiss with the favourite - I'll consider betting Peddlers Cross (3/1 at Ladbrokes) and Starluck (5/1 generally and should be suited by this flat track) as those odds combined offer better value than the odds-on about Binocular.

In a competitive-looking Gerry Feilden Tocca Ferro is one I particularly like who has done me a favour in the past. Although he only won a head at Ascot the last time his trainer told the Weekender [17-21.11.10] that he was 'a very easy winner' who 'hit the front and just idled. He has gone up 8lb for that head win but that doesn't worry me as there is more to come.' Olofi's form reads well (fifth in the Greatwood) as does Kauto Relko's third behind Nearby at Aintree on his penultimate start.

Just six in the Long Distance hurdle with Big Buck's long odds-on. He's not entirely straight-forward; I always think Ruby Walsh knows and rides this one very well. Using official ratings as a guide Duc De Regniere has 12lb to find at the weights. Nonetheless Nicky Henderson's charge has the advantage of a run under his belt this season - 7/1 is on offer for those brave enough to consider opposing. I won't be one of them.

Points of view

Denman put in an exceptional performance yesterday, carrying 11 stones 12 pounds to victory on soft ground in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury; the horse is clearly back to his very best. Over the past two Saturdays we have seen Kauto Star win by a nose at Haydock and Denman demolish a high-class field at Newbury. Anticipation for their clash in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March has started to build already; this evening Blue Square bet 9/4 Kauto Star, 5/2 Denman, 8/1 Cooldine, 10/1 Imperial Commander.

Just for a second or so, as Denman and What A Friend raced to the final flight, it looked as though Sam Thomas' mount took the lead judging from the reverse camera angle used by the Channel 4 team in their replay. Thomas' mount seeemd to wander around slightly at the last but Denman powered away on the run-in to take the spoils. Thomas will have had mixed emotions talking on television afterwards, having ridden Denman to victory in the same race two years ago; he spoke eloquently and deserves plenty of credit.

As Alan Lee pointed out in Thursday's Times, Richard Dunwoody hasn't been afraid to put the cat amongst the pigeons in his latest book 'Method In My Madness'. Amongst other things, Mr. Dunwoody has suggested that Richard Johnson might have had a better chance of being champion jockey with a different agent and that jockeys' titles should be settled on prize money rather than winners. Writing in the same paper the next day, Tom Scudamore picked up on the latter point... 'To me, the mark of a champion jockey is consistency throughout a season, not just brilliance on the biggest days.'

A story that ran through the summer months (seems such a long time ago now) was the search to find a buyer for Ayr racecourse. This business snippet was spotted in last week's Sunday Times, suggesting the Reuben brothers, who took over Northern Racing two and a half years ago, are on the verge of doing a deal.

Finally, I was annoyed to have missed the Pantomime Horse Grand National which took place in Birmingham City Centre last Sunday. Spank the Donkey won the fillies event while Hoof Hearted took the colts race. Must make a note of the date for next year...

Hennessy Saturday and the Fighting Fifth

During the day two non-runners have been declared for tomorrow's Hennessy - Casey Jones and New Alco - leaving a field of nineteen to face the starter at 2.40. My view is basically unchanged from the opinions epxressed in yesterday's post; of the principals I like The Queen's Barbers Shop. Those looking for something at a bigger price may want to consider Nenuphar Collonges (now as low as 14/1 with several books) while Niche Market strikes me as a value play at 40/1.

Big Buck's will be expected to take the Long Distance Hurdle at 1.35 but he'll be no price and the remainder of the Newbury's card looks decidedly tricky...

Up at Newcastle there are just seven runners in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle which is due off at 1.50. According to the market this is a race between Binocular, third in the Champion Hurdle last March, and Irish raider Solwhit who showed an impressive turn of foot to beat Muirhead and Hurricane Fly at Punchestown thirteen days ago. Charles Byrnes, Solwhit's trainer, doesn't sound particularly confident beforehand. In stark contrast Robbie Hennessy, trainer of another Irish raider Sublimity, was pretty bullish about the chances of his charge when writing on his blog earlier today. The favourite has won eight of the last ten renewals of this race; Binocular has to be the selection.

Sublimity travelled over with stablemate Donegal who goes in the 12.40. This one, an expensive purchase at 200,000 guineas, has been well touted but he steps up in distance to two and three quarter miles here which makes me inclined to oppose. I'll take a chance with Ferdy Murphy's Going Wrong; in a recent article his handler said, 'For me he is one of those horses you get up early on a cold morning for.'

Cheltenham's Albert Bartlett winner Weapon's Amnesty continues his chasing education in the 1.15 - there's plenty of room for improvement. He showed a tendency to jump left the last time and then fell at the eighth. In contrast Abbeybraney's second to Barbers Shop at Sandown last December reads well - Abbeybraney gets the vote with Mumbles Head an interesting contender from west Wales.

The finale, the listed Rehearsal Chase, looks competitive. In the past decade the market has proved a decent enough guide with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on seven occasions. Keith Reveley's Jass is one that I like; he should benefit for his reappearance four weeks ago - I'll consider an each-way interest at 12/1 or bigger.

Thursday thoughts on the Hennessy Gold Cup

The Hennessy is one of my favourite races in the calendar and it certainly looks a high class renewal this year with Denman set to carry top weight and any number of talented rivals keen to take him on with what racing folk would describe as a 'racing weight'. Denman's problems last year have been well documented, so his performance in finishing thirteen lengths second to stablemate Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup was excellent; three weeks later he fell two out in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree - the suspicion was he would have struggled to contain Madison Du Berlais on that occasion. The question everyone is asking now is 'Has he fully recovered?' Saturday's running should give a good indication. Trainer Paul Nicholls is on record as saying he expects the horse to come in fourth or fifth; at around 7/2 he offers no value from a betting perspective.

Nicholls saddles two others, What A Friend and My Will. The former, part owned by Manchester United manager Sir Alec Ferguson, carries plenty of stable confidence but I'm not convinced. He ran below par in the RSA Chase last March and has tended to do most of his winning in small fields.

Nicky Henderson's operation is in very good form at the moment (two winners today); his entry, Barbers Shop, ran seventh in the Gold Cup last March and should have strengthened up over the summer break. With just ten stones eight to carry, he looks to hold every chance - should he win, the press is likely to have a field day as the horse is owned by Her Majesty The Queen. The trainer feels the horse's best trip is an easy three miles, although he will stay. After discussions with various jockeys, connections have decided to try him in cheekpieces for the first time, just to help the concentration. For me, this is the one that makes most appeal of the market leaders.

Evan Williams runs two, the 2006 winner State Of Play and 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunter winner Cappa Bleu. Stable jockey Paul Moloney rides the former but the long-term aim is the Grand National next April, whereas Cappa Bleu is unexposed and has had this race as his target for some time.

Two that have run respectable trials are Nenuphar Collonges (sixth in the Badger Ales at Wincanton) and Killyglen (seven lengths second conceding sixteen pounds to Knockara Beau over an inadequate two and a half miles at Carlisle).

Mon Mome was 100/1 when he won the National in April, so Ladbrokes current price of 50/1 may not be the best indication of his chance here; on his day he's a jolly good horse who will not be inconvenienced by further rain. Trainer Venetia Williams' charges have started to run into some form over the past week or so.

The 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition gets in here with just ten stone six and is quoted at 33/1 with most books. Having said that, this race often goes to a young, up-and-coming chaser - there's a suspicion that at the age of ten he may be past his prime; another Irish raider Casey Jones makes more appeal.

At the moment, of those at the head of the market, I prefer Barbers Shop. Two that make some appeal at bigger prices are Alan King's Nenuphar Collonges (25/1 Coral) and Bob Buckler's Niche Market (40/1 Bet365) - this one won the Irish National last April and finished eighth in the Badger Ales on his reappearance, six and three quarter lengths behind NC and some twenty seven lengths behind winner Ellerslie George.

Weekend reflections

Connections will take their time before making a decision on Inglis Drever's career after the current three mile hurdle champion sustained a hock injury and was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Newbury. Bookmakers have removed him from their lists for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham next March; Ladbrokes currently bet 3/1 Kasbah Bliss, 6/1 Punchestowns, Duc De Regniere, 8/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Elusive Dream, 16/1 Pettifour, Mobaasher.

There was over £1.5 million in the Scoop6 bonus pool on Saturday, with eight tickets covering over half the fifteen strong field that went to post for the Hennessy. Given that winning trainer David Pipe had told those who would listen not to back his Madison Du Berlais as the yard was going through a quiet spell, it wasn't a surprise to find the pot unclaimed. The sum will be carried over, probably to Cheltenham on Saturday 13th December.

It's likely to be a long, pressurised week for Sam Thomas, due to ride Master Minded in Saturday's Tingle Creek at Sandown. On each of the past two Saturdays he has parted company with his charge at the final flight of the day's feature race. The unseating from Big Buck's in the Hennessy didn't look great - I'm sure he's watched the replay a few times and will feel he could have stayed in the plate.

Browsing in the Leamington branch of Waterstone's over the weekend I came across Ross Newton's book The Tail End System; I had barely managed a quick glance before Mrs Tips started giving me earache about the Christmas shopping. In a nutshell, Newton gives details of a system that looks to make profits from backing outsiders in British National Hunt races from October to May. An outsider is considered anything that starts at 10/1 or bigger and Newton goes on to identify the tracks where this type of wager is most successful. The top tracks include Musselburgh, Ludlow, Towcester, Carlisle, Catterick and Perth; the striking thing for me was that of those six, five race right-handed.

Those who race at Ludlow on a regular basis are bound to be familiar with The Feathers Hotel, parts of which date back to 1619. In an accident on Friday evening, a bus mounted the pavement and crashed into the facade. The driver appears to have collapsed at the wheel and died at the scene.

Finally, make a note of the new Racing Post website - http://www.racingpost.com/

Hennessy Day at Newbury and Newcastle

Seventeen go to post at 2.40 tomorrow for the Hennessy Gold Cup. Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's is pretty short in the market given that no five year old has previously won the race. Two horses perceived to be 'well in' are at opposite ends of the handicap; Island Flyer scrapes in with ten stones but is due a hike in the weights while last week's Betfair Chase winner Snoopy Loopy carries top weight here but will be further penalised in the future. This may come a little too quick for Snoopy Loopy and the stable's other entry, Always Waining, makes more appeal as a potential each-way wager. Albertas Run beat Air Force One convincingly in last season's Sun Alliance Chase but that fact isn't reflected in the betting for tomorrow's event, mainly because Air Force One ran a very good trial for this at Ascot four weeks ago while Albertas Run was rather disappointing on heavy ground at Carlisle; further rain wouldn't suit either runner. I'm drawn to those at the bottom of the handicap and in a competitive event I'm going to side with Character Building who was third in this last year; he has been off the track after sustaining an injury but appears to have come back in fine form winning a hurdle race at Towcester. The each-way off-the-wall longshot is Always Waining who won a listed chase at Market Rasen with something in hand two months ago and was eighth in this last year. Going through his form he appeared mightily inconsistent throughout last season but if he's on song he could go well and in any case shouldn't be 40/1.

The best race on the card is the Long Distance Hurdle at 2.05. World Hurdle winner Inglis Drever makes his seasonal reappearance, as does Blazing Bailey. Both these are some way ahead of their rivals on ratings but I really like the unbeaten Pettifour, who won at Wetherby a month ago and may have a fitness advantage over the front two; I'm going to take a chance on him at this highest level. Strictly on the book Mobaasher should have the beating of Pettifour but last time he was worried out of it on the run-in by the selection; I'm left with the suspicion that Mobaasher may be something of a bridle horse. In a fascinating race Labelthou couldn't be totally dismissed if returning to form while I'll watch Hills Of Aran to see if he handles the step-up in class. This horse runs well for McCoy; had he been in the plate, I would have considered an each-way dabble.

The portents point to Punjabi in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, where the favourite has won eight of the last ten runnings. Barry Geraghty passed over a hatful of fancied rides at Newbury to take this one; in addition connections have targetted this race as the first leg of a possible treble that will land them £1 million. The Irish send over a strong challenge with Harchibald, Sublimity and Harper Valley while Blue Bajan will be worth monitoring for future reference but, given the above, I can't oppose the favourite in this.

Talking points

Kauto Star's stumble at the final fence in Saturday's Betfair Chase has generated plenty of discussion; certain people seem to think the horse's best days are behind him. When questioned on this matter at Aintree on Sunday trainer Paul Nicholls' reaction was 'Absolute bullshit!' Good to see Mr. Nicholls isn't standing for any nonsense. I thought Kauto didn't pick up as well as you would have expected in the home straight but he was upsides at the last and, in my opinion, would have gone on to win had he not fallen. Peter Bowen's 33/1 winner Snoopy Loopy has almost been forgotten in the fallout; the horse is one of twenty one five-day entries for Saturday's Hennessy. Although jockey Seamus Durack was hard at work a fair way out on this ten year old, once the old-timer got to the front, it looked as though there was still something left in the tank. He's currently 18/1 with Skybet if you're tempted...

Eight tickets shared the monster Scoop6 pot, each winning just over £437,000. The winners also have the chance to go for the nominated £1.5 million bonus race which is likely to be Saturday's Hennessy at Newbury. The Tote's turnover was £4.1 million; compare that to the £3.8 million taken by the Nanny on all races on Gold Cup day in March. On Tuesday some real shrewdies took the 50/1 offered about business breaking the £4 million barrier; by Friday the book was suspended with the price at just 2/1.

The one that caught my eye from yesterday's Aintree card was Serabad in the Toteswinger Handicap Hurdle. Having only recently returned to Peter Bowen's yard, the horse was thought to need the run but, carrying 11st 9lbs on soft ground, he won going away. The trainer's comment afterwards that there was more improvement to come is worth noting.

Racing shorts

Denman's victory in yesterday's Hennessy will live long in the memory. It looked exceptional and the handicapper appears to agree, giving the horse a rating of 176, just three pounds behind Kauto Star and one behind Exotic Dancer.

All the fuss about Denman shouldn't detract from two other performances; Inglis Drever won the Long Distance Hurdle with consummate ease while Helens Vision ran her rivals ragged in the opening novice hurdle, beating her nearest challenger by twenty seven lengths.

On numerous occasions last season Katchit did this blog a favour, but regular readers will be aware I haven't selected him on either of his runs this term, mainly because there was no value in his price. A four year old hasn't won the 'Fighting Fifth' at Newcastle for over twenty years; his third place on Saturday, racing against older horses, was a commendable effort.

Wandering onto the BHB's Go Racing site earlier today, Sunday December 2nd, I came across an advertisement for 'The Summer Card', described as a special microsite guide to this summer's main events, and a plug for the 2007 Pocket Fixture List. Time to update the website, guys...

The same BHB site lists a fixture at Great Leighs on Thursday. An update on building work in progress at the new track is available on the course website, with the end of January 2008 the current target for racing to commence.

Hennessy Gold Cup

Eighteen go to post tomorrow at Newbury in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup which is due off at 2.40. Of the four market leaders priced in single figures I like Snowy Morning best. Paul Nicholls has been very candid in the build-up and practically told us not to back Denman; the horse will be carrying top weight and will come on for the run, the Lexus Chase in Ireland being the target. At the weights Snowy Morning should have the beating of Denman on their running in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase at Cheltenham last March. Abragante looks well handicapped but in my book is one to be wary about, Richard Hoiles from Channel Four having labelled him 'chicken hearted' before the recent running of the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton, while I'm not convinced New Alco will stay the trip. A bigger priced pick is John Quinn's Character Building; the horse will definitely stay and handles soft ground - he looks a value each way bet at around 12/1.