The 2025 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury

What's this? William Hill sponsoring the Betfair Hurdle? 

It used to be the Tote before that, didn't it? And, before that, Schhh... You Know Who. 

Anyway, the final field of eighteen for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.35) has some notable absentees including Tellherthename, Hansard and Bo Zenith.

The going at Newbury is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with light rain forecast overnight.

Favourite Secret Squirrel won the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle with something to spare on soft ground at Windsor three weeks ago (with Navajo Indy fourth, Beat The Bat seventh, Go Dante eleventh and Givemefive 30 lengths adrift in thirteenth place) and carries a five pounds penalty here.

Nico De Boinville was described as, on occasions, 'agricultural' by Tom Scudamore in a recent Times article appraising the riding styles of the leading contenders for the David Power Jockeys' Cup; Nico was aboard the winner that day at Windsor and he rides Joyeuse for Nicky Henderson and owner J.P. McManus tomorrow.

The Henderson yard has a good record in this race with six previous wins: Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000 and 2004); Landing Light (2001); My Tent Or Yours (2013); and Iberico Lord (2024).

Grey mare Joyeuse goes off a mark of 123; in the past ten years the lowest official handicap rating of the winner was 132 (Violet Dancer in 2015). 

Two mares have come home in front in the past 30 years: Mysilv (1995); and Spirit Leader (2003).

Navajo Indy, fourth at Windsor, won the Gerry Feilden over course and distance at the end of December (Our Champ third) and meets Secret Squirrel five pounds better off for a three length defeat; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

The last horse to carry more than 11-08 to victory was Persian War in 1968 which means I haven't looked too closely at the chances of Lump Sum, Iberico Lord and Favour And Fortune. 

Iberico Lord won this last year off a mark of 134 but things haven't gone to plan over the larger obstacles this season and he finished some 20 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Windsor three weeks ago.

Similarly the last horse older than seven to collect the spoils was Geos some 21 years ago so I haven't spent too much time looking at Aucunrisque, Washington, Go Dante and King William Rufus.

That said, the first-named made all to win the 2023 renewal off 138 and, back in November, won an Ascot handicap on good ground off 129 (Mirabad third and Williethebuilder pulled up). 

He looks feasibly weighted off 133 but will need the rain to stay away.

I certainly wouldn't describe myself as au courant with French Flat form (or British Flat form for that matter) but Mirabad's second in a Listed race at Fointainebleau back in November 2023 over one mile seven furlongs looks respectable - he was headed in the final 50 yards.

And he has done well for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole since moving this side of La Manche. 

Last time at Cheltenham on his second start in a handicap hurdle, the gelding decided he wanted none of the steady early pace set by Magic Seven, pulling his way to the front before the fourth flight and duly winning five and a half lengths. 

The handicapper duly raised him 10 pounds. 

Fiercely Proud brings strong form to the table.

On seasonal debut Ben Pauling's charge had come under pressure when falling two out in an Ascot handicap won by Our Champ. 

He was subsequently sixth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood before pipping Kabral Du Mathan a short head in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas (Our Champ fifth, Favour And Fortune sixth, Go Dante pulled up and Secret Squirrel two lengths third when falling at the final flight).

He has been raised nine pounds for that win to a mark of 137 and probably prefers racing on a right-handed track.

Our Champ's defeat of Break My Soul by a nose at Ascot (Fiercely Proud fell) reads well, particularly as the stable was under a cloud at the time; Freddie Gordon dropped his whip on the run to the line that day but still managed to get the job done.

On Gerry Feilden running Our Champ meets Navajo Indy three pounds better off for a five length defeat which isn't reflected in market prices at the time of writing.

Beat The Bat had Josh The Boss in arrears when second behind Steel Ally over two miles three furlongs at Haydock in November before finishing seven and threequarters lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor. 

Stable form has been a concern this season - odds on chances Anno Power and High Fibre have both been turned over in the past fortnight.

I like Josh The Boss but since 2023 he has been racing over trips around the two and a half mile mark - the step back to two miles may not help the cause.

I've never been convinced by Williethebuilder but Minella Missile, a half brother to Monbeg Genius, went in the notebook after winning a Cheltenham novice hurdle in November 2023. 

At that time handler Evan Williams described him as a staying novice with a turn of foot but he's clearly had problems since; I'm surprised to see him entered up here - he's one for another day maybe.

I had the Harriet Dickin trained Dodger Long pencilled in for this but he never made the five day declarations and I was surprised by the absence of Tellherthename when the final field was announced on Thursday.

Two are on the each-way shortlist: Mirabad and Our Champ.

I've watched a recording of Mirabad's race at Cheltenham again and, to be perfectly honest, I don't quite know what to make it. 

Several of those in behind - Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay - haven't turned up here but the grey Tintintin had previously finished fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood; as the gelding rounded the home turn that day the on-screen speed indicator read 35 mph. 

A fast run two miles will suit his style of racing but this is a step up in class and a current mark of 130 is two pounds below the lowest rated winner of the last ten years.

Plenty of use was made of Our Champ on the front end at Ascot the last day (beaten 27 lengths into fifth behind Fiercely Proud); on Gerry Feilden form he's not too far behind Navajo Indy. 

Our Champ gets the vote.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with the sponsors who pay five places; I've taken 22/1 with Paddy Power who are paying six places. 

An Ascot anodyne

When favourite Ocastle Des Mottes spread a plate just before the start of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last week, I couldn't help but wonder what the racecourse farrier carried in that tool bag of his - it had clearly seen several years of dedicated service. 

Daryl Jacob managed to get a good snoop - was there a kitchen sink in there? - but while Ed Chamberlin bemoaned the effect of the protracted delay on the other runners (official off-time some 13 minutes late), it was refreshing to hear Ruby Walsh tell Ed - and anyone else listening - that it wasn't the first time a horse had spread a plate before the start of a race and it certainly wouldn't be the last, so just suck it up!

Such flagrant disregard for circumlocutionary practice can only be applauded.

Further examples of circumlocutionary practice follow.

Sixteen have been declared for the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle (2.25 Ascot); Turftax report the going as good to soft.

When I first looked at this race earlier in the week two Twiston-Davies entries caught the eye - Cuthbert Dibble and Guard Your Dreams. 

The former runs in the Pertemps qualifier at Haydock (3.50), the latter in the Kingwell Hurdle (2.05 Wincanton). 

Cuthbert Dibble - named after two members of the Trumpton fire brigade - won at Chepstow last time out; after that race jockey Sam Twiston-Davies said in an interview with Sky Sports Racing:

"I gave Cuthbert Dibble a terrible ride in the EBF Final. I watch the race back every now and again just to kick myself and remind me why we ride the horse the way we do. I tried to tuck him in but ended up too far back in testing ground. If you'd have asked me this morning I'd have said I'd be incredibly disappointed if he was beaten, because we'd rate him far better than a mark of 125 in the yard. He'll have tougher assignment in future. He'll jump fences one day."

Fire fighting, the handicapper raised Cuthbert Dibble eight pounds after Chepstow but Finn Lambert claims five tomorrow.

The Nicky Henderson trained Hyland has the Pertemps Final at the Festival as his stated target; Hyland takes his chance here following a break of 78 days.

Now, I know you might reasonably expect a rare edition to be of some interest to someone with a background in libraries but I'm afraid this particular Rare Edition is of limited interest because the layers have priced him up favourite. 

On Boxing Day 2022 Charlie Longsdon's charge beat Rubaud seven lengths in a Kempton novice hurdle. 

Rubaud is now rated 149 and counts Guard Your Dreams as one of his opponents in the Kingwell while Rare Edition comes into this on 139. 

On his only start beyond an extended two miles Rare Edition was beaten just under three lengths in the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon 12 months ago.

This term Bad has been reasonably good over two miles and won over an extended two and a quarter miles at Bordeaux Le Bouscat in November 2022. He underwent wind surgery last month and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Formerly with Philip Hobbs and Johnson White Monviel finished fifth in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last year. In the RP Weekender [18-22.10.23] new handler Harry Dereham said:

"He's going to go chasing and I'm quite excited about him." 

After two chase starts, connections have decided to revert to hurdling.

Irish Hill won this race last year off a mark of 128. 

Subsequently tenth in the Martin Pipe at the Festival, the grey looks feasibly handicapped off 125 and Freddie Gingell can claim a further five. 

On his penultimate start he led narrowly two out but was well beaten by Rambo T at Newbury. 

Last month he raced prominently and led clearly on the home turn in the Lanzarote but eventually finished behind winner Jay Jay Reilly (effectively ten pounds higher here), Teddy Blue (sixth), and Mothill (eighth).

Teddy Blue (dam: Tickle Me Blue) finished third behind Aucunrisque and Filey in the 2023 Betfair Hurdle and posted his best effort this term in the Lanzarote. Racing in rear, he looked to be fighting for his head in the early stages - no laughing matter - before making ground and then weakening into sixth after the final flight. 

He was dropped one pound for that effort; with Tom Cannon replacing Caoilin Quinn on board he effectively carries two pounds more tomorrow.

Mothill boasts a consistent profile and can be expected to improve in first-time cheekpieces; drying ground will suit and Joe Anderson claims five.

Issam jumped well and travelled like the best horse on desperate ground at Sandown last time; he appeared to have the spoils in the bag after the final flight but slowed dramatically to a walk up the hill and was collared by Havaila. Drying ground and a slightly shorter trip should help. 

Santos Blue (sire: Blue Bresil) has raced primarily on left-handed tracks to date while Soaring Glory must be a source of some frustration to connections.

Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos was last seen in a Pertemps qualifier at Market Rasen in November. He's quoted 50/1 for this year's Grand National which is the main target - he finished tenth behind Corach Rambler at Aintree last year.

Arqoob's two and threequarters length second behind Rare Edition at Kempton last time isn't reflected in his market price but he showed a marked tendency to jump out to his left that day which won't help the cause and he races from two pounds out of the handicap.

This looks a competitive race for Ostend on debut in this country but the stable boasts a 38% win strike rate in the past fortnight while In The Air has his first run for new connections having pulled up twice over fences when trained by Gary Moore - his two and threequarters length second behind JPR One at Taunton last March reads well. 

Teddy Blue, Mothill and Issam are the ones on the shortlist; with Teddy Blue backed during the afternoon I'll take a small each-way interest in Issam.

Issam is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 14/1 generally with several layers paying five places. 

The 2024 Betfair Hurdle

Twenty four are set to line up for tomorrow's Betfair Hurdle (3.15 Newbury) with the going currently described as heavy, soft in places; the Racing Post reports the track has taken 44.2mm of rain since Tuesday.

The quality of this year's renewal appears below par; the lowest official handicap rating of the past ten winners is 132 (Violet Dancer, 2015) who carried 10-09.

Runners with form on heavy ground include Ocastle Des Mottes, Iberico Lord, Spirit D'Aunou, Aurigny Mill, L'Eau Du Sud, Norman Fletcher, Knickerbockerglory, Faivoir, and Jilaijone.

Of those towards the top of the handicap Spirit D'Aunou hails from the yard that won this with Heathcote (2007), Wingman (2008) and Violet Dancer (2015); Caoilin Quinn can claim three.

Lookaway likes to race from the front and has been consistent all season - he finished second to Captain Teague over two and a half miles in the Challow last time while Under Control ran well following wind surgery to finish second behind Ashroe Diamond in the Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle at Doncaster a fortnight ago.  

However they all appear to face a stiff task given underfoot conditions; in the past ten years 11-08 is the biggest burden carried to victory - by Al Dancer in 2019 and Glory And Fortune in 2022.

The Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November and the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot in December provide two key pieces of form.

Iberico Lord beat Lookaway in the Greatwood with Luccia third, Go Dante sixth, Knickerbockerglory seventh while L'Eau Du Sud pulled up and Onlyamatteroftime ran out four from home.

Five weeks later Luccia won at Ascot, reversing form with stablemate Iberico Lord (seventh), with Altobelli third, Moveit Like Minnie fourth,  Onlyamatteroftime sixth and Faivoir eighth. Unusually, the going at Ascot that day was good; Iberico Lord looked outpaced around the home turn and was eventually beaten just under eight lengths. 

After the race Nico De Boinville reported the gelding had stopped quickly but Nico is back in the plate tomorrow while riding arrangements for the other Henderson runners are as follows: James Bowen aboard Doddiethegreat; David Bass on Luccia; and Jonjo O'Neill Jr on Under Control.

Both Iberico Lord and Altobelli should appreciate the ground, a fact that has not escaped the bookmakers. The manner in which Iberico Lord stopped last time remains a concern.

Ocastle Des Mottes heads the market at the time of writing and is one of three Willie Mullins has sent across the Irish Sea. 

Having his first run for new connections the gelding should have no problem with heavy ground having won a four-year-old listed handicap hurdle at Compeigne last April and a four-year-old hurdle at Auteuil in June. With Warwick abandoned due to a waterlogged track, Daryl Jacob comes to Newbury to ride for owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. 

The French form may not be easy to evaluate but he goes off 133, six pounds lower than his Irish mark - much to the annoyance of Nicky Henderson. His current price represents no value.

Arbitrarily, I've put some effort into those set to carry between 11-00 and 11-08.

Connections fit cheekpieces for the first time on Brentford Hope. 

This course and distance winner, rated 100 on the Flat, finished a two length third to Hansard in the Gerry Feilden (Our Champ fifth, Under Control last to complete). He'd have a better chance with better ground.

Go Dante beat Doddiethegreat at Cheltenham last time (Donnacha dead-heat third) but looks held on Greatwood form; the last horse older than seven to come home in front was Geos in 2004.

Harry Skelton rides L'Eau Du Sud for brother Dan. 

This one was pulled up in the Greatwood when last seen but was subsequently found to be suffering from ulcers. He's now three pounds lower than on British debut in 2022 and probably overpriced at 20/1.

Kamsinas beat Lookaway in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham in October; Fergal O'Brien's charge is weighted to reverse the form but the suspicion is the gelding prefers decent ground.

Altobelli brings strong handicap form to the table and appears feasibly handicapped.

Novices have a good record in the race and I've heard a few whispers for Norman Fletcher at a price as he clearly handles heavy ground; trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won this race with Splash Of Ginge (2014), Ballyandy (2017) and Al Dancer (2019). 

I've watched a few replays - his hurdling has improved but, to my mind, it's still a work in progress and that puts me off. Last time out he was beaten by Bertie's Ballet at Haydock and that one finished eight and a half lengths second to Panjari at Musselburgh in the Scottish Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Musselburgh on Sunday.

I was impressed with the turn of foot Aurigny Mill showed when winning at Kempton last time - and so was the handicapper who raised him nine pounds. The worry is that, to date, Victor Dartnall's charge has raced exclusively on right-handed tracks.

To summarise...

The chances of Altobelli and Iberico Lord are respected in a race where Ocastle Des Mottes is a potential blot on the handicap.

L'Eau Du Sud is an outsider of some interest but I'm going to take a chance with Aurigny Mill. I'm hoping he can keep tabs on the leaders and then show a turn of foot racing on a left-handed track for the first time.

Aurigny Mill is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 generally at the time of writing, with both Sky and William Hill paying seven places. 

The 2023 Betfair Hurdle

Eighteen were declared for tomorrow's Betfair Hurdle (3.35 Newbury) but Hacker Des Places is now a non-runner; the going is described as good, good to firm in places.

When Glory And Fortune won last year's renewal off a mark of 143 he became the first horse older than six to come home in front since Geos in 2004. Racing off 148 tomorrow, Tom Lacey's charge carries top weight and is unlikely to appreciate quick ground.

Novices boast an excellent record in the race - unfortunately a fact bookmakers have taken the trouble to factor into their prices. 

Given the trends, I've focused attention on trying to identify a young horse whose handicap mark might have some juice in it. 

Icare Allen looks to have his share of weight with the ground an unknown. 

Rubaud, trained by Paul Nicholls, will handle the ground but was beaten seven lengths by Rare Edition in a Kempton novice hurdle on Boxing Day; Rare Edition was beaten by Marble Sands in the listed Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon earlier this week.

Between them trainers Gary Moore and Nigel Twiston-Davies are responsible for six winners since 2007 - and Nigel went close with I Like To Move It last year. 

His Master Chewy was beaten by Gary's Hansard at Plumpton last month which suggests Gary will know where he stands with his two runners, Teddy Blue and Yorksea. 

Teddy Blue won a Lingfield maiden hurdle eleven days ago - demolishing the final flight and taking half of it with him - for which he was raised five pounds.

Yorksea finished behind his stablemate in the Gerry Feilden but beat some fair sorts next time in a Class 3 handicap hurdle at Fontwell - second Pyramid Place won at Wetherby last weekend.

Monviel was impressive at Ascot the last day; his chance is respected even with a ten pounds hike but to date he has not raced on a left-handed track.

Alan King saddles two - Restitution and Tritonic. In the Weekender the handler is more bullish about Restitution:

"This is quite a big step up for him but he's maturing and I think he's quite a progressive horse. He's one who wouldn't mind the quicker ground and I could see him running well." 

Tritonic, beaten over 16 lengths in this last year, sports cheekpieces for the first time as 'he can be a bit lazy in the early part of a race'.

Of the older horses I thought Aucunrisque, who likes to race up with the pace, worth a second look returning to the smaller obstacles. 

His second behind Frere D'Armes over fences at this track in November reads well, as does his second behind Boothill in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton at Christmas. Rated 145 over fences, he goes off 138 tomorrow.  

However, given the strong record of younger horses, I'm going to take a chance with the Sam Thomas trained Deere Mark. 

In a Straight from the Stable article [Weekender 09-13.11.22] the handler said about his charge:

"He is an exciting horses (sic) who is not overly big, but what he lacks in size he makes up for in speed...

"The plan will be to try and get him a handicap mark high enough to get in the Betfair Hurdle in which novices have a very good record in. A strong gallop over 2m will suit him perfectly. He is among the best work horses I have, although that does not always mean he will be the best on the track, but the way he travels and quickens marks him out as a nice prospect."

Since the publication of the above resume Deere Mark disappointed behind Fennor's Cross in a Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham before winning a Hereford maiden and then a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle at Kempton.

Violet Dancer (132) is the lowest rated winner over the past ten years.  

Deere Mark's rating of 125 looks too low by comparison but I'm hoping in a fast run affair on quick ground the gelding will be able to show the speed his trainer has seen on the gallops.

As always, an ultra competitive affair.  

Deere Mark is the each-way suggestion, 16/1 generally at the time of writing with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill all paying one fifth the odds six places. 

The 2022 Betfair Hurdle

It looks like a sign of the times with a field of just 14 declared for tomorrow's renewal of the UK's richest handicap hurdle (3.35 Newbury).

A couple of stats for starters:

The last horse older than six to come home in front was Geos in 2004.

Since the inaugural running of the race in 1963 (then known as the Schweppes Gold Trophy) only five horses have carried more than 11-05 to victory: Persian War (11-13) in 1968; Make A Stand (11-07) in 1997; Copeland (11-07) in 2002; Essex (11-06) in 2005; and Al Dancer (11-08) in 2019.

It comes as no surprise to see novices Broomfield Burg and Jpr One at the head of the market; both horses hold entries for the Supreme and the Ballymore at Cheltenham next month.

The former looked good at Kempton on Boxing Day while the latter was beaten a head by Datsalrightgino on his penultimate start; the fourth that day - Socialist Agenda - was in receipt of six pounds and last weekend turned out to win the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh off  118 and is now rated 124.

Top weight Soaring Glory beat 22 opponents to win this last year off a mark of 133 (Fifty Ball second, Glory And Fortune thirteenth) with horses in behind including Edwardstone, Buzz, Guard Your Dreams and Milkwood.

Soaring Glory and Glory And Fortune look to face a stiff task at the weights this time but Fifty Ball goes off 131 - exactly the same mark as twelve months ago. 

I've seen a couple of tips for Gary Moore's inmate who comes into this on the back of three unsuccessful starts over the larger obstacles. Interest is tempered by this comment in the Weekender last week:

"The key to his chance is soft ground and if he gets those underfoot conditions then he has a big each-way shout again."

Of stablemate Royaume Uni Moore says:

"...but life is proving difficult off his mark of 123. I think he is as high as he is going to get and if we are going to get any improvement then it will be on ground that is riding quicker than he has encountered lately."

Boothill, third behind Soaring Glory in the listed Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle at Ascot in November, disappointed over fences at Exeter next time but remains relatively unexposed while Jetoile goes well from the front but may be rated on his second behind Constitution Hill in the Tolworth.

Tritonic and Glory And Fortune appear closely matched on their running in the Greatwood. Alan King's charge beat Onemorefortheroad in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot just before Christmas and was subsequently raised five pounds.

On his first run after wind surgery First Street won comfortably at Kempton last month (Royaume Uni third, 3/1 favourite Lord Baddesley pulled up); a rise of nine pounds looks a trifle harsh but trainer Nicky Henderson says you'd struggle to split First Street and stablemate Broomfield Burg at home. 

Howdyalikmenow has done well since joining Evan Williams' yard in the autumn but has no collateral form with others in this field and is priced up at 66/1 this evening.

Knappers Hill encountered defeat for the first time in the Kennel Gate at Ascot behind Jonbon - currently 11/2 for the Supreme - and Colonel Mustard with I Like To Move It fifth. 

The recent form of the Nicholls yard has been well documented - one winner from 37 runs in the past fortnight and no runners at the track since Sunday; it's difficult to know what to expect tomorrow but if Bravemansgame, Clan Des Obeaux and Hitman run to form, the 10/1 currently on offer will look big.

I Like To Move It also holds entries for the Supreme and the Ballymore. 

Just before Christmas he had to concede weight to all his opponents in that tactical renewal of the Kennel Gate won by Knappers Hill. Prior to that his defeat of Tritonic at Cheltenham reads well (re-opposes here on the same terms) as does his defeat of Washington conceding three pounds. 

On a line through Washington he has a few pounds to find with Jpr One but Twiston-Davies boasts a decent record with novices in this race, having won with Splash Of Ginge (2014); Ballyandy (2017); and Al Dancer (2019).

At the time of writing William Hill offer 11/1 and pay five places; I Like To Move It is the each-way selection.

Newbury's Betfair Hurdle 2020

On Thursday 7th October 2004 Reg Hollinshead, a trainer renowned for feats on the Flat, sent out filly Norma Hill to win the Ludlow Racing Partnership Juvenile Maiden Hurdle at odds of 25/1. I was at the Shropshire track that bucolic afternoon and clearly remember the filly set off in front; she never saw another runner.

On Wednesday 5th February 2020 Gay Kelleway, another trainer renowned for feats on the Flat, sent Bolt N Brown to Ludlow to make all and win the Two C's Antiques Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle at odds of 25/1 (backed in from 40s); the appropriately named Eddie Edge claimed seven along with his first winner in public.

Insufficiently prescient, I only made the link between the events outlined above at around 7.20pm on Wednesday evening. Gentle sigh. Another 40/1 winner passes me by...

Hughie Morrison, yet another trainer renowned for feats on the Flat, will be hoping Not So Sleepy can make all to win tomorrow's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and land connections a bit more money than Reg or Gay managed up at Ludlow - and pocket a cool £100,000 bonus in the process.

Just to be clear, the layers won't be offering any fancy 40/1 prices; in addition, I suspect it's something of an understatement to say Not So Sleepy can be a bit of a handful. Jonathan Burke will be doing the steering - and not a lot else other than holding on for dear life - as Sleepy struts his stuff; the last day the pair nearly ended up going through the wing of a hurdle.

Sleepy comes into this following two runaway victories at Ascot. The first time he was afforded a soft lead and the handicapper raised him five to 127. The gelding repeated the trick four weeks later in a race once known as the Ladbroke Hurdle, beating Monsiuer Lecoq (an astonishing) nine lengths.

In the immediate aftermath of that race some commentators were a little sniffy about Sleepy's hurdling but others advised Mr Morrison to give the beast an entry in next months's Champion Hurdle and that's exactly what Mr Morrison did.  At the time of writing Not So Sleepy is a best-priced 25/1 for the feature race on the first day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival.

Subsequently, the handicapper took a much closer look at the horse's rating after that second Ascot victory and raised him to a mark of 144 - a chunky 17 pound hike; the handler thinks this 'isn't huge'...

The horse I took out of the Ladbroke was Sir Valentine who suffered significant interference on the first bend and as a result quickly lost his position. Racing from the rear, he did well to make up ground from two out to finish a respectable third, beaten some 13 lengths (Whoshotthesheriff fifth, Tamaroc Du Matahan tailed off in tenth with Zanza falling at the fourth and bringing down Quoi De Neuf in the process).

Nigel Twiston-Davies has a decent recent record in this with Splash Of Ginge (2014), Ballyandy (2017) and Al Dancer (last year) all coming home in front but jockey bookings would appear to suggest that Sir Valentine's stablemate in the same ownership - Stolen Silver - is better fancied. He appeared to have a hard enough race on heavy ground in the Rossington Main at Haydock three weeks ago and now faces Thebannerkingrebel, third that day, nine pounds worse off.

It feels like a long time since we've seen genuine good ground and that will definitely suit the Emma Lavelle trained Highly Prized but he has been off the track a while and connections have nominated the Grand National meeting at Aintree in the spring as the ultimate target [Weekender Stable Tour 27.11.19 - 01.12.19].

Greatwood Hurdle form is always worth a second look. Harambe beat Gumball a neck with Quoi De Neuf fourth (beaten under two lengths) and Zanza sixth; Harambe has been raised seven pounds for that run, Quoi De Neuf four.   

Ecco has been on my radar and he has the right profile. The run at Cheltenham in November was a disappointment but he was better the next time behind Fred; his price has drifted steadily through the day. 

This is a fiercely competitive renewal; with 24 going to post, it's possible to make a case for several in the field. No horse older than six has won since Geos in 2004; over the past ten years Violet Dancer (2015) was the lowest rated winner (132) and Zarkander (2012) the highest (151).

Sky Bet, William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair all offer one fifth the odds six places.

The market indicates Mack The Man is the much better fancied of Evan Williams' two runners but Quoi De Neuf has the right profile and was unlucky to be brought down in the Ladbroke the last day.

With the booking of Brian Hughes catching the eye, Quoi De Neuf is the each-way suggestion, currently 20/1 with Sky Bet.

To finish, I received a mail earlier today from Epsom racecourse asking whether a trip to the Derby was on my bucket list. Give me a break - I haven't decided which Cheltenham preview night I'm going to yet...

Newbury's Betfair Hurdle 2018

Native River, third in last year's Gold Cup, makes his seasonal debut in the Denman Chase at 2.25 and the current two mile champion Altior makes his seasonal debut in the Game Spirit Chase at 3.00 but both headline horses face just two opponents in their respective races.

In marked contrast 24 have been declared for the Betfair Hurdle at 3.35; Nicholas Godfrey penned a short history of Britain's richest handicap hurdle in last Sunday's Racing Post.

The going at Newbury is currently described as soft and the frost covers are in place.

In the last twenty years Nicky Henderson has won this five times (Sharpical 1998; Geos 2000; Landing Light 2001; Geos 2004 and My Tent Or Yours 2013) and Gary Moore three times (Heathcote 2007; Wingman 2008 and Violet Dancer 2015).

Tomorrow Henderson's five entries include two mares, Kayf Grace and Verdana Blue, while in the Weekender Gary Moore says of his runner Knocknanuss:

'He now goes for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and he definitely has the right profile for the race. This isn't a race for horses with big weights unless they're a future Champion Hurdle winner or something like that and, although he's gone up 11lb, he's still at the right end of the handicap and is going the right way.'

Trends over the past decade point to a five or six-year-old carrying no more than 11-2.

Earlier in the week I quite liked the chance of Magic Dancer at a price but Kerry Lee's charge failed to make the cut.

In compiling this brief preview I've concentrated primarily on the form of three races - the listed William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (04.11.17); the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (19.11.17) and the Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (23.12.17). A snippet in the Weekender points out the last-named race, better known as the Ladbroke, has never provided the winner.

The Alan King trained Elgin gives a key form line between the three races. He won the William Hill at Ascot off a mark of 140 (High Bridge third, Verdana Blue fifth) and the Greatwood off 145 (Misterton second, William H Bonney fifth, Nietzsche sixth, Jenkins seventh and Project Bluebook eighth) before finishing sixth behind Hunters Call in the Ladbroke (Silver Streak second, Verdana Blue third, Bleu Et Rouge fourth, Nietzsche tenth, Charli Parcs eleventh and Divin Bere fourteenth).

Elgin is now being aimed at Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle next week but the handler still rates the chance of William H Bonney who looked the Greatwood winner two out but didn't get home. The horse ran a similar sort of race in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last March; Alan King states:

'...I hope we've done things right this time and I still think he can win a big one.'

For those interested, 28/1 is the current price.

Two have caught my eye.

The Harry Fry trained Misterton carries his fair share of weight - he was raised five for that run in the Greatwood - but he likes to race prominently which I think could be an advantage and he has finished either first or second in eight of his ten races to date.

At around double the price Nietzsche, third in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham last March (Divin Bere second, Project Bluebook fourth), has the right profile and looks entitled to finish closer to Misterton than he did in the Greatwood.

That day, much like William H Bonney, he was bang there two out but fell away as they raced up the hill. He has been placed in seven of his nine starts over hurdles and I think he holds place prospects here.

From a philosophical perspective 40/1 Nietzsche looks better value than 20/1 Misterton.

In a wide open event Nietzsche is the each-way suggestion with Betfair amongst those layers offering one fifth the odds six places.

Newbury's 'Super Saturday' meeting 2017

After a bomb scare at the track on Friday morning, Newbury officials will be hoping everything goes off smoothly for tomorrow's 'Super Saturday' meet.

Sixteen have been declared for the  Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (3.35) with three horses vying for favouritism - Clyne, Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes. I've seen different commentators claim in their turn that each one of the three comes into the race very well handicapped...

A Kempton handicap hurdle won by Bigmartre on December 27th ties in the form of Beltor, Eddiemaurice, Wait For Me and William H Bonney while at Cheltenham four weeks later William H Bonney came home in front of Wait For Me in fifth (and Bigmartre in eighth).

In last season's County Hurdle at the Festival Superb Story ran away from his field; Wait For Me finished fourth that day with Kayf Blanco a creditable seventh at odds of 50/1.

Wait for Me has been sent off favourite on each of his subsequent three starts but Philip Hobbs' charge hasn't quite managed to deliver the goods - the last day at Cheltenham he led approaching the final flight before fading to finish fifth. On occasions his hurdling continues to cause concern.

After what appears one abortive attempt over the larger obstacles, Kayf Blanco finished a four and three quarter lengths third behind Brain Power and Consul De Thaix at Sandown in early December (Zubayr fifth). That reads well given the former is priced up 7/1 for this year's Champion Hurdle and the latter 25/1 for the Neptune; on County Hurdle form Kayf has three lengths to find with Wait For Me.

On his only other run this season Kayf was hampered by a faller three out when racing over an extended trip at Exeter on New Year's Day.

Only two recent winners have carried more than 10-9 to victory (Zarkander with 11-1 in 2012 and My Tent Or Yours with 11-2 in 2013) but of the sixteen just Veinard and Eddiemaurice pass that particular test.

Of course this is an ultra-competitive event and the stats don't appear to favour eight-year-old Kayf Blanco. It's more than ten years since a horse older than six has collected the spoils; in 2004 at the age of nine Geos pulled off the trick for Nicky Henderson. That said, this just doesn't look a typical renewal to me - discounting riders' allowances, threequarters of the field is set to carry more than 11-0.

Kayf Blanco is the each-way suggestion, priced up at 33/1 in places. Most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places provided, of course, the sixteen make it to the start.

Only three go in the Denman (2.25) with the clash between Gold Cup second favourite Native River and Bristol De Mai eagerly awaited.

My marginal preference was for the former before reading a comment from Colin Tizzard to the effect that this two mile seven furlong and 87 yard trip would be the absolute minimum his charge would want.

Of course, with a small field there's the chance of a tactical affair; should Bristol win, he won't be 14/1 for next month's showpiece.

There's another small field for the Game Spirit (3.00) with just five declared and Gino Trail set to run in the Kingmaker at Warwick if that meeting gets the go-ahead.

Altior has been impressive so far this term but on official ratings still has two pounds to find with Fox Norton and seven with Traffic Fluide. Gary Moore's charge returns to the track for the first time in over a year; his performance here will determine plans going forward.

You know, I find it quite incredible that the 2015 Champion Chase winner Dodging Bullets is realistically quoted a 33/1 shot.

The handicapper judged that Festival performance worth 171; barely two years on, the horse is given a rating of just 154.