The 2026 Irish Gold Cup

Willie Mullins is responsible for eight of the 13 runners declared for tomorrow's Irish Gold Cup (3.30 Leopardstown); the going on the chase track is is currently described as soft to heavy - the card is subject to an inspection tomorrow morning, with heavy rain forecast overnight.

Favourite Galopin Des Champs has won the past three renewals, going on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2023 and 2024 before being beaten by Iknowthewayurthinkin at Prestbury Park last year. 

His first defeat over fences at this track came in the Savills Chase just after Christmas when he finished third behind Affordale Fury - managed to prevail despite jumping persistently to his right - and I Am Maximus.

The consensus opinion is that a lack of fitness / ring rustiness were behind that defeat; we'll know whether age was also a contributing factor in due course.

Having the pick of the J.P. McManus owned runners, Mark Walsh has opted for Fact To File ahead of I Am Maximus and Iknowthewayurthinkin. 

Fact to File finished third behind Galopin Des Champs and Grangeclare West in last year's renewal, with Iknowthewayurthinkin fourth and I Am Maximus eighth. 

The likelihood is I Am Maximus has the Aintree Grand National as his target, having won the 2024 renewal by seven and a half lengths and then finishing second behind stablemate Nick Rockett last year (Grangeclare West third). 

That said, he ran a fine race in the Savills at odds of 50/1, hampered at the final fence and doing his best work on the run to the line.

Iknowthewayurthinkin has shown no worthwhile form since winning last year's Cheltenham Gold Cup six lengths; his jumping in the Savills looked a cause for concern. 

Gavin Cromwell's yard emerged from a protracted barren spell when the appropriately named Now Is The Hour pipped Better Times Ahead in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park eight days ago.

2024 Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior proved he was effective over further when beating Grey Dawning at Aintree in April the following year over three miles one furlong. 

Down in trip he pipped Fact To File a neck in the John Durkan in November and went mighty close in the King George at Kempton, beaten a nose and a nose by The Jukebox Man and Banbridge. He has yet to win a chase at this track.

Both Spindleberry and Firefox race beyond two miles five for the first time - although, back in 2022, the mare Spindleberry won a three mile point at Dromahane. Better judges than me have highlighted her chance and she has been supported in the market throughout the day.

Grangeclare West, Monty's Star, Lecky Watson and Stellar Story finished fourth, fifth, seventh and eighth respectively in the Savills, while Champ Kiely clipped heels and slipped up after the fourth flight. 

Grangeclare West looks to offers each-way potential; Lecky Watson and Stellar Story ran well for a long way before fading. The Henry De Bromhead yard (Monty's Star) is currently enduring a quiet spell.

With a number of layers paying four places, I looked at I Am Maximus, Grangeclare West and Lecky Watson for an each-way wager; the price about I Am Maximus has contracted.

Racing on the inside, Lecky Watson was in with a shout jumping the last in the Savills but could only stay on at the one pace, so Grangeclare West gets the nod.

Grangeclare West is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally at the time of writing but still 25/1 with bet365 who pay four places.

In the event the course fails its early morning inspection, the Racing Post is reporting this evening that the card will be moved to Monday.  

A Sandown longshot

The recent freezing weather has played havoc with the fixture list as well as my form study and this evening has left me in the throes of a particularly acute dilemma - do I to watch the opening Six Nations rugby match between France and Wales or Posh Hotels with Sally (Lindsay) and Nigel (Havers)?

Sterling work by staff at Sandown means tomorrow's card is set to go ahead. At the time of writing there are no planned inspections; the going on the chase course is described as good to soft, soft in places while the going on the hurdle course is soft, heavy in places.

Top marks too to ITV Racing who will show three live races from the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.

Earlier in the week, with the prospects for Sandown looking rather bleak, I spent some time on the Irish Gold Cup (3.35 Leopardstown on Sunday).

That means the usual hard graft hasn't gone into tomorrow's pick so minimum stakes would be the order of the day...

The two to have caught my eye in the Heroes Handicap Hurdle (3.00 Sandown) are Dans Le Vent sporting first time blinkers near the foot of the handicap and Full Glass about whom trainer Alan King has been quite bullish in the Weekender in recent months.

With Page Fuller claiming three, the former has a featherweight in these conditions but the trip may stretch the stamina while the latter hasn't taken well to chasing in this country but appears to be held in some regard.

Dans Le Vent is a tentative each-way suggestion; Unibet offer 22/1 and pay one fifth the odds six places.

The Savills Chase last December is a key piece of form when looking at the Irish Gold Cup.

Ten lengths covered the first six home that day but Kemboy was seven and a half lengths clear which meant there were just two and a half lengths between Monalee (second), Road To Respect (third), Bellshill (fourth), Outlander (fifth) and The Storyteller (sixth).

Road To Respect appeared unlucky stumbling twice in the race while significant improvement will be expected from Kemboy's stablemate Bellshill.

Five weeks ago the ground rode good at Leopardstown and it will again on Sunday; by my reckoning at least half the field would prefer more cut underfoot.

Bellshill is my idea of the winner; Anibale Fly (third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, fourth in the Grand National) would be of some interest each-way at around 10/1 but that price has disappeared and Tony Martin's charge is one of those who would prefer softer ground.

And Sally and Nigel are at The Berkeley tonight - looking forward to it.

A chance for the Challow

Rather spoilt for choice tomorrow with the Welsh National at Chepstow, the Lexus at Leopardstown and the Challow at Newbury.

The world and his wife have put up Well Refreshed for the Welsh National after his eye-catching trial in Sandown's London National three weeks ago. Allocated to carry just 10-2, and with Josh Moore able to claim a further three pounds, Gary Moore's gelding will certainly relish underfoot conditions but his jumping can be haphazard - I still recall the manner in which he practically ran through the final fence of Haydock's Grand National Trial on similar ground in February. I'm not tempted.

Gold cup winner Bobs Worth is on a retrieval mission in the Lexus after a below-par effort in the Betfair Chase last month. Connections don't sound overly confident and Henderson's horses are struggling at the moment - box office draw Sprinter Sacre was pulled up and diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton earlier today while Grandouet was turned over at odds of 1/2 in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase. Willie Mullins' Sir Des Champs blotted his copy book when falling last time but he's still my idea of the winner - Walsh rides Rubi Ball who could be anything.

Only six in the Challow but it's decidedly tricky. Likely favourite Oscar Rock has won a listed bumper at the track while Timesremembered failed to give seven pounds to Creepy the last day at Cheltenham. On a literal interpretation of that form Creepy has it to do to confirm the placings and the market prices on offer suggest bookmakers concur. To my mind Creepy has improvement to come but to date he has shown his best form on better ground so I'm going to stick with Emma Lavelle's Timesremembered  (7/2 generally) who is the best horse in the race on official ratings. Those same ratings also indicate that Kaki De La Pree is in there with a shout...

A sad weekend for racing

There were traumatic scenes at Newbury yesterday as two horses, Fenix Two and Marching Song, collapsed and died in the parade ring before the opening race. The horses appear to have been electrocuted - the suspicion is an underground cable may have been disturbed during recent maintenance work; this evening The Sporting Life reports a section of cable has been removed from the racecourse paddock area. Two other horses, Kid Cassidy and The Merry Giant, were also affected; Kid Cassidy was withdrawn at the start while The Merry Giant was allowed to take his chance in the opener but was reported 'badly traumatised' after the race. Once the seriousness of the incident became apparent, the remainder of the card was rightly abandoned, with the racecourse offering racegoers a full money refund. The BHA intend to make a further statement tomorrow.

In what has turned out to be a disastrous weekend for horse-racing, both Money Trix and Glencove Marina suffered fatal injuries in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown while at Warwick Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry had to be put down following an injury sustained at the penultimate flight in the Kingmaker.

Newbury also managed to make the headlines in The Times' business section on Saturday - Guiness Peat Group, which owns a 29.9% stake in the racecourse, is looking to sell off its investment portfolio. Ever fancied a share in a racecourse?

With the Cheltenham Festival little over a month away, I need to do some homework on a few potential longshots. Here's an initial list that needs plenty of work but might prove a useful starting point...

Mille Chief - 14/1 Champion Hurdle (totesport). Likely to run in the Kingwell at Wincanton.

Cue Card - 33/1 Champion Hurdle (Stan James). Colin Tizzard writing in the Weekender says a decision will be taken on Cue Card's Festival target by the weekend.

Knockara Beau - 16/1 Pertemps Final. Looks to have benifitted from return to hurdling. Fifth in Ballymore / Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet.

The Giant Bolster - 25/1 RSA Chase. Not the quickest but will be staying on when others have cried enough - a blog favourite.

Tarablaze - 25/1 RSA Chase. Well backed in the past few days.

Captain Cee Bee - 12/1 Champion Chase (totesport). McCoy rated this one his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival but the horse broke a blood vessel in the Arkle. Went on to win Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown.

What A Friend - 40/1 Gold Cup (Coral). Looks overpriced on Aintree Bowl victory last April.

China Rock - 66/1 Gold Cup. Not certain to line up and several question marks over his stamina - will he come up hill? Probably not, but the price is big and he's likely to appreciate good ground.

Finally, finishing on a much-needed lighter note, the Daily Mail recently reported Welsh Cob Basil the stallion likes to pop down to his local, The Meynell Ingram Arms in Burton, Staffordshire, for a pint of Marston's Pedigree. If you're asking, Basil, mine's a Guinness...

Quick thoughts on Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown

Punchestowns took the Graduation Chase at Kempton earlier today and in the process helped Nicky Henderson reach 2,000 career wins but for much of the trip the 4/6 favourite looked in trouble behind the front-running Pasco. However the grey slowed markedly up the home straight thereby allowing Barry Geraghty to galvanise his mount to an improbable eleven length victory. Pasco finished distressed in second; after the race trainer Paul Nicholls sent out a tweet indicating the grey had choked and would be sent for a breathing operation in due course.

Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...

Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.

The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...

Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)

Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.

At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.

At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.

Odds 'n' sods

The Irish Hennessy Gold Cup meeting at Leopardstown was abandoned earlier today on account of a waterlogged track; the fixture has been rescheduled for Saturday 12th February. Paul Nicholls' Pride Of Dulcote, ante-post favourite for the big race, will now be aimed at Ascot's Betfair Chase on Saturday 19th February but stablemate Indian Daudaie stays over in Ireland for the re-arranged fixture.

Nicky Henderson's champion hurdle entries Binocular and Oscar Whisky won their respective races yesterday at long odds-on. Binocular didn't look that impressive when beating 116-rated stablemate Ruthenoise one and three quarter lengths at Sandown but Oscar Whisky scooted through the Ffos Las mud to beat Black Jack Blues eight lengths. The suspicion is Oscar Whisky would need soft ground come March to show his best in the Champion Hurdle; the layers make Oscar Whisky a 14/1 chance while Binocular still heads the market at 100/30.

A feature of Medermit's victory in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase was his jumping; Alan King's grey held the fast-finishing Captain Chris half a length at the post. In the circumstances Captain Chris did well to be thereabouts given he threw in a couple of novicey leaps on the way round. Medermit is generally 6/1 for the Arkle but totesport have taken a stance against Captain Chris offering 14/1.

There was a delay to the Grade 3 totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown after Nicky Henderson's Lush Life spread a plate at the start. The gelding behaved impeccably as the TV cameras transmitted close-up pictures of the farrier doing his work. If the farrier was the hero, the villain was the starter who let the tape go before the 8/1 chance could rejoin the rest of the field - Lush Life lost any chance at the start, finishing eleventh of the twenty runners. The Sporting Life reports Lush Life 'detached from remainder when starter let tape go' and recorded one bet of £9000-£1000; that unfortunate punter, together with many others, was denied a fair run for his money.

Weekend snippets

Festival clues aplenty at Leopardstown today where Willie Mullins won the Irish Champion Hurdle with Hurricane Fly as well as the opening maiden hurdle with Day Of A Lifetime. This evening Paddy Power offer 5/1 about Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March while Day Of A Lifetime will be entered in both the Supreme Novices' and the Neptune - Coral go 20/1 about the gelding for the opening race of the Festival.

Mullins' grey Flat Out looked set to be involved in the finish of the Arkle Novice Chase but came to grief two out when in the lead; Realt Dubh and Noble Prince fought out a ding-dong battle to the line with the former prevailing by a short-head. Best prices about these for the Cheltenham showpiece in seven weeks' time - Realt Dubh 14/1 (William Hill), Noble Prince 20/1 (Stan James), Flat Out 16/1 (Coral).

At Ascot yesterday Master Minded didn't jump with his usual zest when taking the Victor Chandler by a short-head from the fast-finishing Somersby; as a result Paul Nicholls' charge is out to 5/2 for the Queen Mother Chase while Somersby is generally a 10/1 chance. In the post-race interview McCoy implied he hadn't given his mount the best of rides by sending him to the front too soon on the testing ground. The hard luck story was Kalahari King who was all but carried out by the riderless Petit Robin but then stayed on well to take fourth. Connections had been bullish before the race and now go straight to Cheltenham for the Ryanair - totesport's 16/1 looks tempting given the likely better ground will suit Ferdy Murphy's charge.

One that sluiced up at this meeting was Grandouet who is now as low as 6/1 with some firms for the Triumph. Although the gelding won without a bother, the second, Brendan Powell's game filly Two Kisses, could be considered a useful enough yardstick but nothing more. Connections aim to go to Kempton for the Adonis before Cheltenham which should prove informative. The Triumph is a rough enough race at the best of times - 6/1 Grandouet makes no appeal whatsoever.

Pat Rodford's mare Sparky May caused something of an upset by beating even money favourite Carole's Legacy four lengths in the mares' hurdle. Sparky May is now quoted 8/1 for the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle while Carole's Legacy is out to 16/1. Willie Mullins' Quevega has won the past two runnings of the race and is just 5/4 to complete the hat-trick.

More clues to ponder over next weekend when Cheltenham hosts the Festival Trials Day...

In the meantime, three quick points to finish with...

1. Keep an eye out for the revamped Morning Line next Saturday;
2. Check out the triple dead-heat at Romford dogs last Wednesday;
3. Spare a thought for Mischief the horse who recently got stuck in a neighbour's swimming pool.

Frozen courses

Probably the only thing I have in common with Kempton's clerk of the course Barney Clifford is the fact we both took a peek under the covers this morning and didn't particularly like what we saw. Kempton's Boxing Day card has been abandoned; Monday's revised eight-race card at the track is now subject to an inspection on Sunday (Boxing Day) at 2.00pm.

At the time of writing the current state of play is:

Boxing Day 26th December

Kempton Park - abandoned

Fontwell Park - 11.00 am inspection Christmas Day

Huntingdon - abandoned

Market Rasen - abandoned

Towcester - abandoned

Wetherby - abandoned

Wincanton -abandoned

Wolverhampton - inspection 6.30 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned. Rescheduled Thursday 30th December

Limerick - abandoned

Down Royal - abandoned

Monday 27th December

Chepstow - abandoned. Welsh National meeting rescheduled January 8th

Kempton Park - inspection 2.00 pm Boxing Day

Southwell - no inspection currently planned

Wetherby - inspection 9.00 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned

Tuesday 28th December

Catterick - abandoned

Ffos Las - course currently covered

Leicester - inspection 8.30 am Boxing Day

Wednesday 29th December

Kelso - abandoned

Thursday 30th December

Haydock - inspection 11.00 am Tuesday 28th December


Makes grim reading, doesn't it? Pass the port, please...

Weekend snippets

Cape Blanco (6/1) provided something of a shock at Leopardstown yesterday by making all to win the Irish Champion Stakes by five and a half lengths from stablemate Rip Van Winkle with Twice Over a short head behind in third.

Tony McCoy has been in fine form this weekend with a treble at Worcester today on Another Trump (3/1), Pinerock (3/1) and Drill Sergeant (10/11f) to add to his victory on Russian George (3/1) at Stratford yesterday. The winning distances in two of those events were recorded as a short head and a head - McCoy has ridden four winners from seven rides since Friday.

BBC4 screen This Sporting Life this evening at 10.00pm, a film that's a particular favourite of mine. Richard Harris stars in the lead role as Frank Machin, a rugby league footballer from Wakefield.

As pointed out on Saturday's Morning Line, this Youtube clip has gone viral... A race caller at Monmouth in the US had a bit of fun when two horses fought out a finish, one named My Wife Knows Everything, the other named The Wife Doesn't Know. Needless to say, My Wife Knows Everything came out the winner (because she actually does).

Two poetry points to finish on. Firstly, I was intrigued to learn over the weekend that poet John Cooper Clarke is now on the GCSE syllabus - unfortunately that's thirty five years too late for me. Secondly, here's a poem by John Masefield (1878-1967), who was on the O level syllabus (as it was known) thirty five years ago...

An Epilogue

I have seen flowers come out in stony places
And kind things done by men with ugly faces,
And the Gold Cup won by the worst horse at the races,
So I trust, too.

Thinking about the Festival...

Earlier today at Leopardstown Joncol pipped Cooldine in a thrilling finish to the Irish Hennessy; the winner is now a 7/1 shot with totepsort for the Ryanair Chase. The runner-up delighted Willie Mullins with his effort. Last year's RSA Chase winner has been out of sorts so far this term but the handler thinks his charge will come on for the run - Cooldine is quoted at 14/1 for the Gold Cup with most layers, behind Kauto Star (5/4) and Denman (9/4).

Saturday's Racing Post confirmed that Tony McCoy will ride Denman in the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday and in the Gold Cup itself. Over the coming weeks we can expect plenty of hype as the media build the race into a Kauto Star / Ruby Walsh versus Denman / Tony McCoy stand-off.

The Festival is just over five weeks away. For the past ten years I've attended Champion Chase Day on the Wednesday but this year I haven't purchased my ticket... The thought of the crowds and having nowhere to sit for eight hours show I must be getting old - these days I'm just as happy with a low-key jump meeting at a gaff track. I'm sure I'll come round... There's still a long way to go but, for those interested, here's my current thinking on a selection of the races.

Supreme Novices: I saw Dunguib's exceptional win last year and have been a big fan ever since. Unsurprisingly, I'm not alone. For those looking to oppose, the ante-post favourite's hurdling was far from fluent at Leopardstown this afternoon.

Arkle Chase: A race I try to avoid. Hen Knight's Somersby would be of interest.

Champion Hurdle: As open as I can remember. Still have plenty of respect for Punjabi (overpriced at 14/1) but will wait to see if Barry Geraghty deserts the champion in favour of Zaynar. Medermit (14/1) was unlucky to be beaten a neck by Go Native (6/1) in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle and looks better value than that winner in the market. The form of Alan King's yard has been patchy this year.

RSA Chase: Punchestowns oozes class and deserves his prominent position in the market. I was more perturbed than many by Long Run's jumping at Kempton; a stat that will need to be checked - when was the last time a five-year-old won this race? Diamond Harry has limited chasing experience but Weird Al jumped well at Wetherby yesterday, collecting his third chase win on the bounce.

Champion Chase: Will watch Master Minded's return in the Game Spirit at Newbury with interest. Following Taranis' victory at Cheltenham on Janaury 30th trainer Paul Nicholls indicated that Master Minded had only recently started work again. One of the sayings often repeated around this time of year is you want an animal that has had an uninterrupted preparation for the Festival races. Might be harder to come by this time with the weather playing its part but Master Minded can hardly be said to have had an uninterrupted prep. I think the occasion will get to Twist Magic but like Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.

Champion Bumper: A couple of weeks ago Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, highlighted that the RP top-rated horse has won the bumper on four occasions in the last five years. Recently Dermot Weld's Elegant Concorde has shot to the top of a market that can be fairly volatile. This time last year Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret was widely touted but on the day drifted out to 9/1, finishing sixteenth of the twenty four runners.

World Hurdle: Despite the odd quirk, Big Buck's looks bomb-proof. Nearer the time I'll consider Karabak, Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.

Triumph Hurdle: Often a very rough race and not one I'm particularly keen on. Will check out Carlito Brigante.

Gold Cup: Kauto Star for me - with bookies going 14/1 bar two I'll be looking for some fancy prices about an each-way longshot.

One tip for the Festival that is certain to give value for money - make sure you purchase Raceform Update's Festival Preview usually published at the beginning of March.

Finally, I couldn't sign off without a comment on the first weekend's rugby internationals. The England v. Wales game was littered with mistakes, mostly on the Welsh side, but I thought some of the BBC's camera work in that game verged on the atrocious - in particular the spider-cam coverage did nothing but detract from the action on the field.

Festival clues...

The Festival clues season has started in earnest. At Haydock yesterday reigning champion hurdler Punjabi was beaten fair and square by Medermit on ground that was probably soft enough - Alan King's charge, in receipt of four pounds, has now finished in front of Punjabi in his last two races. Beaten a neck by Go Native in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle (after being hampered at the last), Medermit goes straight to the Champion and looks to have a live chance - certainly his price this evening (16/1) makes more appeal than 6/1 Go Native. I wouldn't rush to write off Punjabi either who is also a 16/1 chance (with Skybet) for the showpiece.

Solwhit's victory earlier today in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown has seen both Paddy Power and Boylesports install him as their new 3/1 favourite for the Cheltenham equivalent in March. It may be worth noting this quote from trainer Charles Byrnes, "But that's him today - take it or leave it, there's no improvement to come."

Henry de Bromhead's An Cathaoir Mor won the Arkle Chase but isn't certain to make it to Cheltenham. Books have reacted by shortening Captain Cee Bee (beat this winner at Naas)
and Sizing Europe (stablemate of this winner).

Diamond Harry's chase debut at Haydock yesterday went as smooth as you like - Nick Williams' charge is now 5/1 second favourite for the RSA Chase behind Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns.

Nick Mordin's column in this week's Weekender highlights the fact that in the past five years the animal with the highest Racing Post rating has won the Festival bumper on four occasions. So far this season the mare Araucaria has the highest RP rating obtained in a bumper (132) - Nick helpfully points out that at 16/1 she represents decent value. That led me to wonder when was the last time a filly / mare won the race. I was at the track to see Hairy Molly win the 2006 renewal but on checking the formbook was somewhat disconcerted to discover that Hairy Molly was actually a bay gelding... I didn't have to go back too much further - in 2004 two mares fought out the finish with Total Enjoyment beating the Jonjo O'Neill trained Refinement two and a half lengths. The second that day returned a year later to finish fourth in the same race, ridden on that occasion by one K. Fallon.

In an article in Saturday's Guardian, Michael Owen describes racing as his 'main passion outside of football' so he may make it to this year's Festival but he says he'll 'never want to train'. Look out for more Festival clues next Saturday at the Festival Trials Day...

Some selections for Saturday

Noted amongst the also-rans in this week's epsiode of Dragons' Den, a cameo appearance from 'self-styled Lord Brett Little and trainer Edward Creighton'. The pair were asking the Dragons for an investment of £150,000 to put into their venture T.U.R.F (The Ultimate Racing Fraternity). Dragon Theo Paphitis' conclusion - 'I'd rather back a pantomime horse...' You're likely to feel much the same way about the suggestions made below.

The Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (3.50) has been billed as a clash between Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory. The participation of the former is dependant on the going, currently described as yielding to soft, soft in places; John Oxx is likely to wait until the last moment before making his decision. On official ratings Rainbow View is the one to beat in the 2.40; the filly hasn't managed to get her head in front this year but this represents a jolly good opportunity - the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time should help her concentration.

This side of the Irish Sea many will be of the opinion Kieren Fallon can land the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, courtesy of High Standing. This looks trappy to me with Fleeting Spirit and Main Aim formidable opponents - I'm steering well clear.

At Stratford the opening juvenile hurdle looks quite interesting for the time of year. Forty Thirty won well last time at Bangor and is taken to continue his progress. One to watch out for in the market is Irish raider Choisir Breeze while Tom Dascombe's Lambourn Genie goes hurdling after disappointments on the Flat. In the 3.20 Mutual Friend tries two and a half miles for the first time; the Pipe team are in good form at present so Mutual Friend gets the vote over Truckers Delight. In the competitive-looking 3.50 I'll have a second look at Michael Hourigan's Some Craic - this one ran well over course and distance on his penultimate run. The Jigsaw Man is the one to beat in the finale, but he'll be priced accordingly.

Weekend shorts

Leopardstown's card was moved to the Sunday and run on soft ground. With 'The Duke' withdrawn as anticpiated, New Approach had to work hard enough to beat 50/1 shot Traffic Guard a half length in the Irish Champion Stakes; Lush Lashes won the Matron Stakes.

Over in France Henrythenavigator, hindered by a poor draw and unfavourably soft going, could only finish fifth behind Goldikova in the Prix Du Moulin. Paco Boy claimed third, having met some trouble in running. I was concerned about the mile trip for this horse following Ryan Moore's comments after the Hungerford but, on this evidence, those doubts are unfounded.

Targets for Duke Of Marmalade now include the Arc and the Breeders' Cup; Corals make 'The Duke' 4/1 joint favourite for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

All eyes will be on Doncaster next Saturday with Look Here an intended runner in an intriguing-looking St Leger and Ladbrokes now sponsoring the re-arranged Betfred Sprint Cup after yesterday's Haydock card was lost to the bad weather.

An insignifcant milestone but one I bring to your attention nonetheless - you are reading this blog's 400th post. By my reckoning, it's roughly 400 days since I last tipped a winner. If you throw enough darts, one day you'll hit the bull...

Down came the rain...

Walking around Coventry city centre earlier today, I felt like an extra on the set of Bladerunner. I kid you not, the RNLI were collecting. Enlightened self-interest prompted me to make a small donation; there's a fair chance I could need their services in the next few hours.

Saturday's card at Thirsk has already been called off. Both Haydock and Stratford are subject to 7.00am inspections tomorrow. I had planned to take the family for a picnic at Stratford; that idea looks a bit of a washout now.

Heavy rain at Leopardstown has put their card in jeopardy. Officials are also exploring the possibility of moving the meeting to Sunday. Whatever happens, the likelihood is that Duke Of Marmalade, set to clash again with New Approach, will be withdrawn.

Paco Boy is entered in the Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp on Sunday. I'll be interested to see how he fares at a mile after his impressive win over seven furlongs in the Hungerford; Henythenavigator is the obvious form choice.

Lexus Chase

Having watched a recording of Kauto Star's superb victory in the King George, I've just been forced into watching six consecutive episodes of The Munsters - from the sublime to the ridiculous - it's been that sort of Christmas. I haven't had the time to turn round, never mind look at Chepstow's Welsh National card.

Tomorrow's Lexus Chase at Leopardstown looks intriguing. On Racing Post ratings Denman is the clear top rated animal, yet at 4/9 his price is much shorter than Kauto's at Kempton on Boxing Day. Described as a 'brute of a horse' by several commentators, Denman looks to have the one way of running and bludgeons his rivals into submission, as he did in the Hennessy. The second in that race, Dream Alliance, knocked the form a little when pulling up in the Welsh National earlier today. Course and distance winner The Listener has it to do here but offers tempting value at 4/1, while it's not beyond the realms of possibility for State of Play to find improvement. In my book Denman is less of a certainty than Kauto in the King George, yet his price is shorter; I'll take a chance on The Listener at odds of 4/1 or bigger.

The TurfTV issue has rumbled on in the background over the past few months. The stakes will be raised considerably from Janaury 1st when live pictures from thirty one racecourses will only be available in betting shops which have subscribed to the service. Coral's have recently announced they intend to take the product; this will give them a significant commercial advantage over High Street rivals Hill's and Ladbrokes. In this day and age, are punters prepared to put up with audio commentaries after placing a bet in a shop?