A Wincanton whim

The first Premier fixture at Sandown scheduled for tomorrow was abandoned earlier today on account of recent heavy rain.

I didn't hold out too much hope for tomorrow's card at Wincanton either, given that Paul Nicholls had to evacuate horses from his yard at Ditcheat on Thursday due to flooding. 

However clerk of the course at Wincanton, Daniel Cooper, is optimistic; an inspection is planned for 8.00 am. 

All that preparation for the Veterans' Series Final has been gently shoved into the pending tray.

Seven are set to go to post in a trappy-looking Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Handicap Chase at 2.40; the going is heavy.

Favourite Georges Saint looked held in third at Fakenham last time but stayed on well to win going away. 

The handicapper has raised Venetia Williams' charge seven pounds and, with Charlie Deutsch replacing Lucy Turner in the plate, the grey effectively starts off a mark 12 pounds higher.

Huelgoat won over course and distance on his penultimate start (Go Steady seventh, Dibble Decker ninth) but has tended to show better form on better ground.

Jacamar finished second in a Class 4 handicap chase at the track 11 days ago; the yard is going through a quiet spell.

Iconic Muddle and Go Steady are the two veterans in this field. 

The former makes his seasonal debut for a yard in flying form - 7 wins from 25 runs in the past fortnight.

At twelve years of age the latter, seventh here behind Huelgoat on seasonal debut, is entitled to finish a lot closer to that opponent tomorrow; his fourth behind Cepage in a veterans' chase at Cheltenham last time reads well.

I think Dibble Decker is another who prefers better ground which leaves Honneur D'Ajonc. 

This one has been on the radar for some time and will certainly handle the ground; he won at Hereford off a mark of 127 in January. 

He hasn't really shown any noteworthy form since to be honest, failing to complete on three occasions and finishing a remote third behind Stormy Flight at Exeter last time. Jane Williams' charge wore cheekpieces for the first-time on that occasion yet weakened out of contention up the home straight.

He's not the biggest of individuals but in a Straight from the Stable article [RP Weekender 15-19.03.23] his handler described him as a 'fabulous jumper' who 'always tries his best'. 

He's feasibly handicapped and, with the yard going well (2 wins from 5 runs in the past fortnight), I'm going to take a chance that Honneur D'Ajonc can return to some sort of form.

Honneur D'Ajonc is the each-way suggestion, currently priced at 11/1, with bet365 and Coral both paying three places.   

The 62nd running of the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton

Eleven have been declared for tomorrow's Badger Beer Handicap Chase (2.25 Wincanton); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.

At the time of writing Threeunderthrufive heads the market with stablemate Frodon in close attendance.

Threeunderthrufive's best performance since his sixth behind L'Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival was his final run of last season - he finished fourth behind Kitty's Light in the Scottish Grand National on good ground at Ayr. 

Connections will hope that the wind surgery carried out over the summer will help eke out further improvement.

Frodon won last year's renewal of this race off a mark of 158 and tries to repeat the trick off the same mark this year; the going last time was good to firm. The likelihood is Frodon will have had this race as his target for some time. 

Connections of both The Big Breakaway and Ashtown Lad have said the Becher at Aintree next month is their main target.

I fancied The Big Breakaway for the Ultima at Cheltenham in March on the back of his second behind The Two Amigos in the Welsh National at Chepstow. 

Unfortunately he struggled to keep tabs on the pace setters that day and was one of the first beaten. He hasn't raced at Wincanton before but with the front-running Frodon bowling along at the head of affairs I'd be concerned something similar might happen again.

Like Frodon, Sam Brown is a few weeks short of his twelfth birthday. 

In April 2022 he won the Betway Handicap Chase at Aintree in something of a common canter. He underwent wind surgery in April before coming to grief at the Chair in the National and then falling at the penultimate flight when two lengths clear in a handicap at the Punchestown Festival.

On his day Sam Brown is very capable. 

Handler Anthony Honeyball also saddles Forward Plan, Gustavian and Blackjack Magic. 

Forward Plan looks up against it racing from seven pounds out of the handicap while in a Straight from the Stable piece [RP Weekender 23-27.11.22] the trainer said of Gustavian:

"His trouble is that he tends to jump nine of his ten fences like an old pro and then really balls one up." 

Blackjack Magic has just the four chase starts to his name.

When the final declarations came through and the race priced up, I thought 14/1 about Certainly Red of interest. 

Out of four visits to Wincanton, Lydia Richards' charge has won three times over the distance and finished second over a trip of two and a half miles. 

I watched a replay of the gelding's last victory at the track in the Dick Hunt "Wigmore" Handicap Chase in February; he didn't look the easiest of rides that day, jumping out left on occasions and not always clean at the obstacles, all of which tempered initial enthusiasm.

Dan Skelton saddles Ballygrifincottage and Ashtown Lad.

The former looked something special when beating Beauport in the St Helens Novices' Chase at Haydock this time last year but his jumping went to pieces in the Towton at Wetherby where he broke a blood vessel and the jumping problems were still apparent on seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot three weeks ago.

Ashtown Lad mixed hurdling and chasing last year. 

He beat Gesskille in the Becher and that race is clearly the target this term. This is his first run on a right-handed track but he has run well on seasonal debut in the past. 

Courtland has been busy through the summer and would probably prefer better ground.

With Sam Brown now as low as 6/1 in places, at double the price I'm going to take a chance on Ashtown Lad being fit enough to do himself justice; Tristan Durrell claims five and got the job done on Knickerbocker Glory at Ascot last Saturday.

Ashtown Lad is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 in several places, with most layers paying four places.

Boxing Day dilemmas

Tis the afternoon of the night before Christmas and the form books lie still...

No traditional Christmas Day post this year; here's an insight into the cogitations likely to be to the forefront of my mind while pulling the Christmas crackers.

An intriguing renewal of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, a race that doesn't make an awful lot of appeal from a punting perspective. 

After inflicting defeat on Altior for the first time, Cyrname turned up a short priced favourite for last year's running but flopped badly, stablemate Clan Des Obeaux taking full advantage; Cyrname has been campaigned differently this term and on official ratings is the one to beat. 

The Henderson camp has stumped up the £5,000 fee required to supplement Santini; connections have done their sums and calculated that a profit will be realised if their charge finishes in the first five. 

Lostintranslation didn't shine in the race last year and underwent wind surgery immediately afterwards. A fine third in the Gold Cup in March, he disappointed in the Betfair Chase at Haydock; Robbie Power thinks his ride is better on better ground.

The Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby 2.05) has piqued interest, primarily because only three of the nine declared have shown noteworthy form over three miles or further: Snow Leopardess (the grey mare raised nine pounds after catching Commodore on the line at Haydock five weeks ago); Wandrin Star (raised four pounds after finishing a neck behind Quarenta at Ascot); and The Dutchman (raised five pounds after being caught on the line at Haydock last time). 

To date Canelo has been well beaten on two previous attempts at the trip but trainer Alan King thinks this step back up will suit. 

Windsor Avenue appears to have prompted a difference of opinion with Paddy Power offering 7/1 while William Hill go 10/1; the gelding is not lightly dismissed. Brian Ellison's charge underwent wind surgery in January and has been given plenty of time to recover. His chance in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham last time disappeared at the start and that effort is forgiven. Quoting Ellison in a 'Straight from the Stable' feature in the Weekender 30.09.20 - 04.10.20:

'If you could see his work at home it screams out class and the work last week was very impressive. He should get three miles...'

Stablemate Definitly Red won the 2016 running off 141.

This time last year, following Not So Sleepy's nine length victory in the Betfair Exchange Trophy, I highlighted the chance of Hughie Morrison's three runners at Wincanton. Two of the three obliged, with Supamouse winning the concluding bumper 14 lengths. Talk immediately afterwards was of the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham but tragedy struck the following day when it was discovered the gelding had suffered a perforated intestine and couldn't be saved. 

Twelve months on and Not So Sleepy has won the 2020 renewal of the Betfair Exchange Trophy at odds of 20/1 - for the record, carrying none of my money. 

Updated figures for the stable's jumps runners read:

Season to date: 1 win from 11 runs (9%); +10 points profit

Last five years: 23 wins from 114 runs (20%); +47.25 points profit

The yard has declared the unraced Scanning in this year's Wincanton bumper (3.50). The following rhetorical question is asked in stentorian, overemphasised, John McCririck-like tones:

Has renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison been hatching a plot? 

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

What's this? A Cobra in the Badger Beers...

What with one thing and another there have been a few fireworks this week... Now, I appreciate you wouldn't normally expect a brief preview of Wincanton's Badger Beers Silver Trophy (3.35) to start with a discussion about recent results at Hexham - but what the hell has been happening at Hexham?

Prompted by Evita Du Mesnil's victory in the first at Hexham today, I've had a quick look at Hexham results since the resumption of racing on July 1st - when starting prices started to be determined by the industry.

According to my fag-packet calculations there have been six meetings (44 races) at Hexham since the beginning of July; check the starting prices of these winners: 

02.09.20 18:00 race: Costly Dream 40/1

15.09.20 15:40 race: Daimiens Dilemma 28/1

02.10.20 13:15 race: Golden Robin 66/1

10.10.20 13:25 race: McGinty's Dream 20/1

25.10.20 12:55 race: Kilcaragh Boy 66/1

06.11.20 13:10 race: Evita Du Mesnil 80/1

There have been some fancy prices about placed horses too including Molly Whuppie (15.09.20 14:10 race 66/1 second); Pass Rusher (02.10.20 13:45 race 33/1 second); Farlam King (25.10.20 15:50 race 200/1 second); and Farran Dancer (06.11.20 15:30 race 40/1 second).

Any theories? Please feel free to send me some money-making ideas...

Finding a juicy priced winner on tomorrow's card at Paul Nicholls' local track looks decidedly difficult. 

To date Nicholls has won the Badger Beer ten times and holds three chances of making it eleven - Danny Whizzbang, Present Man and My Way. Danny looks short on chase experience, My Way has yet to win over fences while previous winner Present Man likes it around here but came up short last year and is, like me, getting no younger. The last horse older than nine to come home in front was Flaked Oats in the year 2000 - trained by Paul Nicholls.

This race hasn't been particularly kind to me over the years and wouldn't be one of my favourites - there may be a causal link there. With layers not looking keen to take too many chances, I'm going to make the case for Cobra De Mai. 

In a recent Racing TV Stable Tour piece (dated 22.10.20) trainer Dan Skelton said:

"He has struggled against the handicapper since he won at Cheltenham last April but I do believe we are somewhere near back to an optimistic mark. He ran the other day at Fontwell but he wants a bit of nice ground, three miles and a chance off the handicapper." 

Cobra should have conditions to suit tomorrow. 

He finished ninth behind Give Me A Copper in last year's renewal off a mark of 150 - and goes off 138 tomorrow. The handicapper dropped the gelding two pounds following his last run where he didn't jump well in Frodon's race at Cheltenham; I'm prepared to forgive that effort. He went off 11/2 third favourite that day, yet he's generally priced up at 14/1 for this lower grade race. 

You can't blame regular pilot Harry Skelton for choosing to go to Aintree for a nice-looking book of rides that includes Wilde About Oscar, Bennys King and Ch'tibello; Bridget Andrews will certainly be up to the task if the horse is. 

Cobra's sixth behind The Conditional at the Festival in March reads well and I think he was probably undone by the soft ground at Fontwell on the seasonal reappearance. I'm hoping the application of first-time blinkers helps to trigger a return to form as he races now from a mark that is four pounds lower than when he last won.

William Hill are paying five places; Cobra De Mai, currently 14/1, is the each-way selection.

To finish, a couple of quick snippets...

Local trainer Robin Dickin sent out his first winner in over 500 days at Huntingdon on Sunday. Owned by The Cocoa Nuts & The Tricksters, Mr Palmtree comfortably disposed of his rivals at odds of 12/1. The signs were there but, unfortunately, I completely missed them. Off a revised rating of 93, Mr Palmtree should remain competitive at his level.

Current coronavirus restrictions can only be considered a hindrance so Willie Mullins' decision to send Eight And Bob over to contest tomorrow's Pertemps Qualifier at Aintree (1.35) catches the eye. A quick trawl through the form left me slightly bewildered but the beast should be fit enough after a summer campaign on the Flat.

Christmas wishes for 2019

The blow-up beds have been deflated and salient family members shoved out the front door and up the road to church.

Fair play to the parish priest too - he's ever eager to play the part of pantomime villain by further elongating an already elongated religious celebration.

The Christmas Day post is never an easy post to write - looking to offer some small crumb of hope and comfort to those forced to spend the day with relatives they wished were a lot further away than they actually are. And then Auntie Betty drops her false teeth into the trifle.

Six cards (Huntingdon abandoned) to analyse before salient family members return - an impossible task, even with the initial spadework carried out last night.

The trouble is this year I think I might have chanced on something that might have half a chance.

The King George and Christmas Hurdle at Kempton promise some fascinating clashes but I won't be having a bet in either; Commanche Red can be given an each-way shout in the 1.20 on the back of  his third behind Nube Negra and his third behind Reserve Tank.

Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick Chase (2.10) will prove informative and Zerachiel - with seven pound claimer Charlie Todd in the plate - can be given every chance in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (2.15) on the back of his second place in this race last year.

I'm off to Wincanton though where Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow.

But what's this? Fresh from pulling off a stunning victory with Not So Sleepy at Ascot on Saturday, renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison sends *three* runners to the track - Urban Artist (12.55); Third Wind (1.25) and Supamouse (3.45).

The stable's updated figures with their jump runners after Not So Sleepy's win now read:

Season to date: 4 wins from 9 runs (44%); +23.50 points profit
Last five years: 23 wins from 116 runs (20%); +34.29 points profit

A 1 point each-way patent (outlay 14 points) returns 430 points (using prices quoted today as a guide) in the admittedly unlikely event Mr Morrison's three runners win.

Now, we all know it's been a bumpy year but at least there's something to distract you from Uncle Albert's political ramblings over the Christmas turkey...

With best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Caught in two minds...

I'm going to start this evening's post by saying that at 16/1 (18/1 in a couple of places) I think Bigmartre looks a big price for tomorrow's 2.05 at Aintree.

I'm prepared to forgive his effort in the Old Roan a fortnight ago on the back of these comments by trainer Harry Whittington in this week's Weekender:

"...his jumping is his strength and he had no chance when they took out all those fences [on account of the low sun].  Basically it turned into a speed test and I knew it wouldn't suit him. He jumped great and was always in a good position at his fences, but Page [Fuller] never got a chance to fill him up as they were going too fast. She did a great job, though, as she looked after him... I'd expect him to run well."

Ten are declared and the top four in the betting all make their seasonal reappearance; Cepage's second behind Frodon in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last December - War Sound a distant tenth - obviously catches the eye.

The favourite has failed to oblige in each of the past ten renewals while in the same timeframe the winner has been aged between seven and nine.

A number in the field don't have an awful lot of experience over the larger obstacles; for me Riders Onthe Storm and The West's Awake in particular have questions to answer in the jumping department.

In 2018 Duke Street won a Worcester novices' chase off a mark of 130 but tomorrow goes off a mark of 141 following two victories over the smaller obstacles. War Sound won last year's renewal but tries this time weeks short of his eleventh birthday.

Bigmartre is just one pound inferior to top-rated War Sound on RP ratings but... he has proved hard to catch right in the past.

Over at Wincanton fourteen have been declared for the feature race of the day, the Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase. A number of fancied sorts failed to make the overnight declaration stage, presumably on account of the good ground, with the result the prices about potential selections have contracted sharply.

Present Man has won the past two renewals and tomorrow attempts to win the race for a record-breaking third time.

Sumkindofking chased home the winner twelve months ago and finished fourth behind Wandrin Star here thirteen days ago. The Colin Tizzard trained White Moon appeared to have the spoils in the bag that day when he stumbled and fell after the last. Beau Du Brizais ran a very respectable trial in second; on revised terms he looks weighted to confirm form with Sumkindofking (whose regular pilot Jonathan Burke rides up at Aintree).

Just A Sting from the Harry Fry yard was one of those of interest earlier in the week but the price has long since disappeared.

The Philip Hobbs trained pair Rock The Kasbah and Beau Du Brisais remain of interest. The former has a decent enough record when fresh and will appreciate underfoot conditions if the rain keeps away but he can be hard to catch right - William Hill and Bet Victor offer 11/1 at the time of writing.

Stablemate Beau Du Brisais is priced 18/1 with both Paddy Power and Bet Victor who pay one fifth the odds four places.

Aintree or Wincanton? Bigmartre or Beau Du Brisais?

In the hope this hasn't come up a tad too quickly, Beau Du Brisais is the each-way suggestion.

Badger Ales Trophy 2018

Earlier in the week the Charlie Appleby trained Cross Counter gave Britain its first win in the Melbourne Cup. A piece in The Times on Monday highlighted the chance of Magic Circle but in the event Ian Williams' charge came home sixteenth after breaking a blood vessel. Nonetheless this particular snippet caught my eye:

"Ian Williams has the distinction of being the only trainer to have had a winner at every course in Britain." 

Former England footballer John Barnes was the guest of honour at Warwick's Sporting Icon Raceday today.

It's well known that the back straight at Warwick provides a stiff test for a novice chaser but 1/4 favourite Kalashnikov rifled over the fences and through his opposition to win very easily; he is now quoted as low as 9/2 for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

Rather more difficult to predict was the victory of L'Es Fremantle at Market Rasen yesterday. Rachael McDonald produced the 80/1 chance to pip Miss Lilly Pinchin on Follow The Swallow near the line to record the horse's first win at the 56th time of asking and give trainer Michael Chapman his first win for two years. Marvellous stuff.

There's plenty of rain and small fields about this evening; one exception is the Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase, the highlight at Wincanton, where sixteen have been declared to face the starter. At the time of writing the going at the Somerset track is good to firm, good in places, but that may well change before the off at 3.35.

Two of Paul Nicholls' runners vie for favouritism - Present Man and El Bandit. The former won this last year with Bryony Frost up and the pairing try to repeat the feat twelve months on off a mark just two pounds higher. The latter returns to the track after a spell of 543 days on the sidelines and has just one chase start to his name - the price being offered by the bookmakers looks distinctly short.

Thirteen days ago Bigbadjohn won here over a longer trip (Sumkindofking third) and, just two pounds higher tomorrow, he has obvious claims.

Nicholls' third runner Captain Buck's was beaten by Aunty Ann over course and distance last time out but could reverse the placings three pounds better off. I note that Harry Cobden rides El Bandit.

Ramses De Teillee has shown his best form on soft / heavy ground (which may yet come to pass) while the blinkers worked their magic on Allelu Alleluia last time but this is his first try beyond two miles seven furlongs.

Both Belmount (at Exeter) and Kings Lad (at Ascot) look to have had hard enough races in the past week.

In search of an each-way wager I've considered the two Charlie Longsdon runners - Aunty Ann and Bestwork - along with Sam Red and Sumkindofking.

On bits and pieces of form the 40/1 Paddy Power offers about Bestwork looks big but on balance his profile is a shade too inconsistent and he was pulled up on his first try beyond three miles last time out.

Aunty Ann will stay (as aunties often do) and the mare's course and distance win last time reads well but she races off a career high of 128 and her three chase victories to date have all come in fields with less than ten runners.

I like the profile of Sumkindofking (fifth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen), a consistent sort, but it's difficult to see him reversing form with Bigbadjohn - that effort was his first try beyond two miles five and a half.

Sam Red was certainly very fortunate to win at Cheltenham the other day (Oighear Dubh well in command after the last before running out through the tapes) but this time last year Sam was racing off a mark of 137 whereas tomorrow he goes off 122 and amateur rider Mr William Marshall claims another seven; good ground looks important to him.

Sky Bet and Paddy Power both offer 16/1 about Sam Red and pay one fifth the odds five places.

Sam Red is the each-way selection.

Badger Ales Trophy 2017

You know the full horror of Christmas can't be that far away when you see TV adverts for Nick Knowles' debut album 'Every Kind Of People' and Bradley Walsh's 'When You're Smiling'...

Thank God for National Hunt racing.

They bet 9/1 the field for tomorrow's Badger Ales Trophy for which the maximum 18 runners have been declared.

Local handler Paul Nichols has won this event seven times in the past twenty years (Flaked Oats, 1999, 2000; Montifault 2001; Royal Auclair 2004; Cornish Sett 2008; Meanus Dandy 2010; The Minack 2011) and in last year's renewal most observers thought the trainer had pulled off the stunt once again as Southfield Theatre went clear coming to the final fence but then fell with the spoils apparently in the bag, in the process handing victory to Gentleman Jon.

Wearing first-time cheekpieces and racing off a mark three pounds higher, Southfield Theatre represents Nicholls again together with Mr Mix and Present Man who fell at the second last year; he has been trained specifically for this but wouldn't be guaranteed to see out the trip in testing conditions.

The last horse older than nine to come home in front was Flaked Oats (11) in 2000.

Peter Bowen chalked up two victories with Swansea Bay in 2002 and 2003; Henllan Hari races with the pace and is respected on the back of his bet365 Gold Cup victory at Sandown in April.

Yala Enki is another who likes to go from the front while Fact Of The Matter has had this event as his target after winning at Cartmel at the end of August.

The race has the look of a bookmakers' benefit event but that's half the challenge and two have caught my eye.

Double Shuffle was due to run in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last week but was declared a non-runner - ITV's Ed Chamberlain indicated the horsebox broke down although I'm not certain that story was ever officially confirmed.

Owned by the Crossed Fingers Partnership, Double Shuffle has some decent efforts to his name including defeat of Go Conquer in the 32Red.com Handicap Chase at Kempton over Christmas (Go Conquer won impressively at Ascot last week) and he was subsequently undone by a mercurial ride from James Best aboard Pilgrims Bay to be beaten half a length in the Betbright Handicap Chase at the Surrey track in February.

Tom George's charge had a pipe-opener over an inadequate trip at Chepstow four weeks ago and Ciaran Gethings can claim three pounds; the worry is his very best form is on good ground and he may struggle with underfoot conditions.

On 19 November 2015 Final Nudge beat Present Man seven lengths at level weights in a novices' hurdle at this track. He won on his first outing last year and was in the process of running a big race in second place in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter before coming to grief four from home.

Connections have decided to leave cheekpieces off tomorrow and the handler has stated the horse will come on for the run.

At the time of writing Double Shuffle is 14/1 (Paddy Power) while Final Nudge is generally a 16/1 chance.

Final Nudge is the each-way selection with most layers paying a quarter the odds four places.

Sandown veterans

I've been on the lookout for a young unexposed type in the 32Red Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown tomorrow but haven't had that much luck... Aerial from the Nicholls yard has the fewest miles on the clock with five wins recorded from nineteen runs.

These vets, they're an absolute credit to the game.

Top weight Shuil Royale boasts the best career wins-to-runs ratio in the field at 30.3% while just three record a figure lower than 15%; in 2011 Cody Wyoming won a Lingfield maiden hurdle at odds of 100/1 and currently shows a profit of £86.45 to a £1.00 stake.

In fact twelve of the runners boast a profit to level stakes - if only they'd given me this list of horses eight years ago...

Of course, with over £100,000 in added prize money, tomorrow's renewal is highly competitive - Aachen, beaten a neck by Soll last year, tries once again at the grand old age of thirteen.

In working through the form, I've discarded the four horses that have not previously won over three miles or more (Astracad, Ericht, Baileys Concerto and Cody Wyoming) and have then looked at the Scotty Brand Veterans' Handicap Chase, the last qualifying leg of the series, run over 22 furlongs at Kelso in early December.

That day Gas Line Boy made most to beat Cloudy Too (second), Aerial (fourth), Wychwoods Brook (fifth) and Dynaste (seventh). Ratings for that race and tomorrow's are compared below:

Gas Line Boy          was 136  now 145
Cloudy Too             was 142  now 140
Aerial                      was 135  now 134
Wychwoods Brook was 132  now 130
Dynaste                  was 150  now 145

I'm not inclined to take the Kelso form too literally. Dynaste never turned up, Wychwoods Brook was making his seasonal debut and there's a possibility Brian Hughes may have pinched the race up front over a shorter trip on slightly better ground.

Of those named above, it's hard to be confident about Dynaste and he's short enough in the market (comments that apply to Rocky Creek too).

Wychwoods Brook has a Peter Marsh Chase to his name and jockey James Nixon can claim seven but he hasn't always been the cleanest of jumpers so the 2016 Peter Marsh Chase winner Cloudy Too (14/1 generally) is the each-way selection with Aerial feared. Rain would certainly help the selection -  most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.

Capitaine is my idea of the Tolworth winner but the race makes little appeal as a betting medium.

Over at Wincanton, Oneida Trial, mentioned in last week's post, goes in the 1.30 but the price - 12/1 with Paddy Power - doesn't really tempt on what we know so far while Daryl Jacob has a word for Fortunate George in the 3.15; Daryl travels to the track from Sandown after riding Midnight Jazz in the mares' listed hurdle.

Wincanton fireworks?

Thirteen have been declared for Saturday's Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton due off at 2.05.

Paul Nicholls has won the showpiece at his local track on seven occasions, three times in the last ten years. Tomorrow he saddles The Ould Lad and Benvolio with the former likely to start favourite, tipped up by Paul Kealy in the Weekender as a potential 'handicap blot'. I don't share that view; his chance is respected but there isn't much value in the price.

The handicapper doesn't appear to have done Drop Out Joe too many favours by raising him ten pounds for a win at Chepstow last month. The Rebecca Curtis trained Doing Fine was beaten under five lengths in that race and now re-opposes on eight pounds better terms.

Two declared for Tom George - Forgotten Gold and A Good Skin. The market suggests the former is the principal fancy on the back of an easy course win thirteen days ago but the jockey booking suggests the latter is the one to be on. I'm confused.

Wilton Milan wouldn't be certain to see out this trip so I'll take an each-way interest in Colin Tizzard's Theatrical Star. Fifth in a Cheltenham handicap chase a fortnight ago, he was only beaten four and a quarter lengths - further rain won't compromise his chance. At the time of writing he's 9/1 with several layers.

Last year Polly Peachum did me a good turn in the mares' hurdle at 2.40; this year I'm hoping Henry Daly's Tara Mist can repeat the trick but I'm more hopeful than confident.

Eleven are declared with the bottom two racing from out of the handicap.

Tara Mist held a five day entry for last week's listed mares' hurdle at Wetherby. Daly ran Bantham there; this race looks better suited.

A key piece of form is the listed mares' novices' finale at Newbury last March; in receipt of two pounds Kalane beat the selection some seven and three quarter lengths on that occasion but this time Daly's charge receives nine pounds.

Most of the market leaders are making their seasonal debuts - any hint of ring-rustiness is likely to be exposed by race-fit Kayf Willow who beat Lady Of Longstone with something in hand at Newton Abbot last month.

I received a tip for Tara Mist in a Ludlow hostelry some two weeks ago. Henry Daly's mare is the selection; she is currently priced at 5/1 with both Paddy Power and Stan James.

Tony McCoy - we salute you!

On 26th March 1992 Anthony Peter McCoy, aged 17, rode his first winner, a horse called Legal Steps, at Thurles.

Yesterday aboard a horse named Mountain Tunes at Towcester, A P McCoy, aged 39, rode his 4,000th winner - to universal acclaim.

Quoting from the epilogue of his autobiography written in 2002:

'I...know there is more do. 300 winners in a season? 3,000 before I retire? Who knows, but be sure of one thing: I will try.'

3,000 winners came at a wet and windy Plumpton in 2009 on Restless D'Artaix; at the moment he doesn't appear to be harbouring any thoughts of retirement.

Who is to say he won't ride 5,000 winners? Well, his wife, Chanelle:

'I would quite confidently say that 5,000 is unattainable and he knows that himself.'

Perhaps that's why Paddy Power offers 10/1 about the current champion reaching that particular landmark.

Last word on the matter to John McCririck - his words, printed on the reverse cover of McCoy's autobiography, sound as true today as the day they were written:

'The man is a colossus, we have never seen his like before.'

McCoy has always been amongst the winners, in stark contrast to my good self...

In tomorrow's Elite Hurdle at Wincanton Melodic Rendezvous is the one to beat but I was impressed with the manner in which Karinga Dancer dominated his field at Aintree a fortnight ago; despite suffering interference two out and making a hash of the last, the gelding still had eight lengths on his nearest rival. Granted, this represents a step-up in class but he could have a fitness edge on a couple of the market rivals and boasts course and distance winning form. Paul Nicholls, who has a good record in this race in recent years, saddles Far West but only one four-year-old has obliged in the past decade and I'm still unsure whether all the stable's runners are seeing out their races, despite high-profile victories for Tidal Bay and Rolling Aces last weekend. On offer generally at 7/2 this evening, Karinga Dancer is the selection while the money for Cotton Mill has been noted.

Wincanton whims

Paul Nicholls has won the Badger Ales Trophy (Wincanton 3.25) four times in the past ten years but likely favourite Michel Le Bon isn't one I'm particularly keen on. The nine-year-old doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock but has the look of a horse that has proved difficult to train. Last season he was a disappointment in the Hennessy and was then pulled up in Kempton's Racing Post Chase before obliging over the smaller obstacles at Cheltenham in April. If Michel Le Bon is fragile, Diamond Harry is notoriously so; on his best form it would be foolish to discount the top weight but he hasn't won since taking the Hennessy in 2010. I fancied West End Rocker for the National; he didn't take to the race and could be competitive here if fit enough but no horse older than nine has won in the past decade. Of the younger horses Colin Tizzard's course and distance winner Golden Chieftain had a nice prep taking a two and a half mile Worcester chase just over a fortnight ago while Zarrakaft has been well tipped-up. I'll take an each-way chance on David Pipe's The Package; fifth behind Meanus Dandy in the 2010 renewal off a mark of 147, he races off 139 this time and has the assistance of Timmy Murphy in the saddle.

In some ways the preceding Elite Hurdle (2.50) is more interesting and should give some pointers for the weeks ahead. Just seven in the field, three from the Nicholls' yard, with Zarkander's fifth in the Champion Hurdle catching the eye but that one has to give weight to all his rivals. Ruby Walsh chooses to ride Propsect Wells while in the Weekender Alan King describes Balder Success 'the most exciting horse of the weekend for me...' I'm beginning to have reservations about Baby Mix - he doesn't look the easiest of rides - so I'm going right out on a limb and chancing Local Hero who has looked good over hurdles this summer but may require better ground to be seen at his very best. Having said that, his rider claims seven. The winner has come from the first three in the market on nine occasions in the past ten years but only two favourites have obliged in that timeframe.

Houblon Des Obeaux, rated 142, sets a reasonable standard for the Rising Stars Novices' Chase (2.15) and is the selection while Tante Sissi should give a decent account in the mares' handicap hurdle at 1.40. Last year's winner Violin Davis, now trained by Harry Fry, is likely to prove popular. All Annalena had three warm-up races on the Flat last month and is likely to race from the front.

Over at Sandown Overturn makes his chasing debut. He was withdrawn from Wetherby last week on account of the ground - I expressed my reservations then as the fences at Wetherby are stiff enough for any novice. If Wetherby sets a stiff task, Sandown's railway fences set a much stiffer one. Overturn isn't the biggest of individuals - I'm guessing connections will watch the 1.20 with a certain amount of trepidation.

From Wincanton to Down Royal

You tend to think of Wincanton as something of a speed track but the three miles one and a half furlongs of tomorrow's Badger Ales Trophy will take some getting on ground that is currently described as good to soft, soft in places. There has been plenty of rain around this evening too - a young lady walking home in front of me was carrying a very fetching Paddy Power umbrella which sported the wording '5/1 it blows over' - I wasn't remotely inclined to take the odds.

This year's Badger Ales wouldn't be the best renewal in recent years but it still looks pretty open with 14 set to face the starter. In the past ten years four favourites have obliged (Montifault 11/4 2001; Swansea Bay 2/1 2003; Royal Auclair 7/2jf 2004; Abrigante 15/8 2007) while five winners have been priced in double figures (Swansea Bay 14/1 2002; Iris Bleu 10/1 2005; Parsons Legacy 16/1 2006; Cornish Sett 12/1 2008; Ellerslie George 14/1 2009). In the same time frame no horse has been older than nine when winning so on grounds of age I'm going to discount Madison Du Berlais (the pick of Pipe's two on jockey bookings), Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch. Paul Nicholls won this last year with Meanus Dandy but this year stablemate The Minack is more likely to start favourite according to the layers. I've never been 100% convinced about The Minack after he nearly threw away a Kempton novice hurdle (January 2010) when hitting the front two from home. In a post three weeks ago I said I'd seen Benbane Head touted more times than I'd want to recall over the past year; he made a mistake early doors at Cheltenham in that race and was never really competitive thereafter. I'm tempted to go for a bigger-priced animal in this. At Ascot last weekend Dover's Hill got no further than the second when unseating Aidan Coleman and breaking the jock's collar bone in the process; he could go well provided the fences don't get in the way and a similar comment could apply to Vic Dartnall's course and distance winner Richard's Sundance. This horse went off the boil in the second part of last season so I'm taking plenty on trust here but the yard is flying at the moment (four wins from nine runs since October 21st) - Richard's Sundance each-way at 16/1 is the suggestion.

On paper the Elite looks between Grandouet and Celestial Halo but makes little appeal as a betting medium while I'm undecided about Silviniaco Conti in the novice chase. This is a horse I like but I burnt my fingers a couple of times last year and I'm just wary after he finished third behind Cue Card on his chasing debut. He's bound to come on for that and will be more suited by this trip but he's priced up at short odds in a race that is no foregone conclusion. Mad Moose has more chasing experience than the rest while Jetnova is an Irish pointer and Kilcrea Kim an exciting prospect. This evening Paddy Power offers 5/1 Kilcrea Kim which in my book represents a play against the favourite - Kilcrea Kim is the selection.

At Down Royal in Ireland Noel Fehily rides The Nightingale and Kauto Stone for Paul Nicholls as yesterday Ruby Walsh's lodged appeal against a five-day whip ban was unsuccessful. In today's Times Alan Lee reports that jockeys' leaders have admitted privately that 'their impasse with the BHA is at crisis point after this judgement.'

Seven go in a trappy-looking JNwine.com Champion Chase at 2.20. The two top-rated horses, Sizing Europe and The Nightingale, have yet to win at this distance while Quito De La Roque and Bostons Angel look out and out stayers - judging fitness for this first run won't be easy. Midnight Chase could surprise a few - he ran an excellent fifth in the Gold Cup last March - but he wouldn't want too much rain. Connections decided to bypass last week's Charlie Hall to come here (although I'm not totally convinced this is an easier option.) Midnight Chase is 6/1 with William Hill this evening - I'll take an interest provided the rain stays away.

Recent racing titbits

I don't know why but since the royal wedding matters royal continue to crop up. A couple of weeks ago the Daily Mail reported that the Queen had looked after Frankie Dettori's lost dachsund Scruby. Then at York last Thursday Midday won the Middleton Stakes while half an hour later the Queen's Carlton House won the Dante in some style. Her Majesty's colt, apparently gifted to her by Sheikh Mohammed, is now a short-priced favourite for the Epsom Derby on Saturday June 4th. All that has encouraged further royal foraging - Marcus Armytage in the Daily Telegraph pointed out that:

The Queen has never won the Derby - in 1953, the year of her Coronation, Aureole finished second to Pinza;

The last monarch to win the Derby was King Edward VII in 1909 with Minoru.

Professor Gerda Reith of Glasgow University has carried out research of a different kind and discovered that the use of Fixed Odds Betting Terminal (FOBTs) in betting shops can lead to problems. 'Betting machines are particularly risky because of the enormous speed at which they take gamblers' money.'

Today's students are likely to be familiar with the idea of running up big debts, so perhaps it's unsurprising to see the BHA trying to entice them into the world of racehorse ownership. Love The Races has leased Tim Vaughan's Tae Kwon Do to a select band of students until the end of June as part of a prize in a recently-held comeptition. Last time out the gelding ran better than his 14/1 market price would have suggested beforehand, finishing third in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton. I'd imagine connections will be keen to land a small race before the lease runs out. In a somewhat similar vein Bangor blog selection Wake Board won with his head in his chest on Saturday despite pulling hard through most of the race and a hiccup two form home; have current connections found the key to this enigmatic individual?

Finally, I leave you with the thought that you tend to come across a different type of woman in the jumping game. At the Punchestown Festival Ladies' Day recently Daybreak presenter Grainne Seoige turned up wearing steel toe-capped heels, no doubt of particular use when dealing with the unwanted attentions of over-amourous male punters keen to try their luck...

From Ascot to Wincanton via Haydock

If identifying a vulnerable favourite is half the battle, there are three forecast at Ascot I won't be taking on... In the feature Betfair Ascot Chase, Riverside Theatre has, on official ratings, nine pounds and upwards in hand over his six rivals and looks the one to beat. Pride Of Dulcote will have his supporters but the gelding had a wasted trip to Leopardstown a fortnight ago when that meeting was abandoned and the form of his head defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury wasn't franked by that one the next time at Kempton, even though Punchestowns ended up winning the race by eleven lengths. I've always thought Tartak something of an enigma but Paddy Brennan's record on the horse speaks for itself - five wins from eight rides.

Sprinter Sacre, described recently as the apple of Nicky Henderson's eye, is as low as 10/1 for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham. He's expected to oblige in the 4.05 but will be no price.

Persian Snow went into many notebooks when winning over course and distance last October. That was run on good ground - perhaps connections are slightly wary of underfoot conditions here as they've opted to fit a tongue-tie this time.

Of the four in the Reynoldstown I prefer Master Of The Hall to The Minack. Having said that, there's nothing between them on ratings and The Minack beat Nicky Henderson's charge fifteen lengths in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon a year ago...

There's a decent card at Haydock where the feature is the Grand National Trial at 3.20. Fourteen face the starter for what looks likely to be one long slog in the mud; the going on the chase track is reported to be heavy, soft in places and further rain is expected. Aidan Coleman has been sweet on Mobaasher for a while now and the chestnut gelding gets another mention on his blog this evening. I'll take a small each-way interest in Le Beau Bai who will relish conditions; the stable is in fine form (three wins from 11 runners in past fortnight) and conditional rider Jake Greenall takes off a handy-looking seven pounds.

One of Aidan's I will bet provided the gelding isn't priced up favourite is Houbon Des Obeaux (1.40) who looked impressive behind Marsh Warbler on his first run in this country.

Court In Motion, currently 6/1 favourite for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, goes in the 2.10 and on ratings is entitled to win with something to spare. He'll be a short price but I wouldn't be tempted as the yard has been a bit in and out of late.

Over at Wincanton five go in what looks a fascinating renewal of the Kingwell. In the Weekender Alan King is bullish enough about Mille Chief, although he does caution the horse is better on better ground. Overturn is likely to run his race from the front and won't be easy to pass but at this evening's prices 4/1 Silviniaco Conti (bet365, SkyBet) looks value. Admittedly he has to give weight to all his opponents but his third behind Menorah (9/2 in places for the Champion Hurdle) conceding four pounds in the International at Cheltenham comes right out of the top drawer. For me, the stand-out feature of Paul Nicholls' charge is the speed with which he takes his hurdles.

Frozen courses

Probably the only thing I have in common with Kempton's clerk of the course Barney Clifford is the fact we both took a peek under the covers this morning and didn't particularly like what we saw. Kempton's Boxing Day card has been abandoned; Monday's revised eight-race card at the track is now subject to an inspection on Sunday (Boxing Day) at 2.00pm.

At the time of writing the current state of play is:

Boxing Day 26th December

Kempton Park - abandoned

Fontwell Park - 11.00 am inspection Christmas Day

Huntingdon - abandoned

Market Rasen - abandoned

Towcester - abandoned

Wetherby - abandoned

Wincanton -abandoned

Wolverhampton - inspection 6.30 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned. Rescheduled Thursday 30th December

Limerick - abandoned

Down Royal - abandoned

Monday 27th December

Chepstow - abandoned. Welsh National meeting rescheduled January 8th

Kempton Park - inspection 2.00 pm Boxing Day

Southwell - no inspection currently planned

Wetherby - inspection 9.00 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned

Tuesday 28th December

Catterick - abandoned

Ffos Las - course currently covered

Leicester - inspection 8.30 am Boxing Day

Wednesday 29th December

Kelso - abandoned

Thursday 30th December

Haydock - inspection 11.00 am Tuesday 28th December


Makes grim reading, doesn't it? Pass the port, please...

Friday fireworks?

Plenty of weekend fireworks to look forward to on this soggy bonfire night including the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs, the final day of the Flat season at Doncaster (with the jockeys' title still undecided) and the return of Kauto Star in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal.

Having said that, Wincanton stages a top class card tomorrow, the feature being the Badger Ales Trophy due off at 3.20. The question is to what extent will the predicted rain affect the going, currently described as good. Last year's winner Ellerslie George sports blinkers for the first time after two below par efforts at Market Rasen and Chepstow. Paul Nicholls fields two, Meanus Dandy and Niche Market; the latter has his first run for the champion trainer, having previously been in the care of Bob Buckler. On his seasonal reappearance in this race 12 months ago Niche Market finished well down the field but three short weeks later the gelding ran the race of his life to finish third behind Denman in the Hennessey at odds of 33/1. Perhaps connections intend to follow a similar route again although Nicholls is likely to have done a bit more work with his charge than Buckler had done at this stage last year. Meanus Dandy on the other hand was well beaten at Cheltenham in October (Ouzbeck six lengths ahead in third) - the application of first-time blinkers doesn't look encouraging. The Pipe yard has three entries with Tim Murphy's mount The Package the favourite this evening. This one has talent in abundance but he's not the most straight forward and can easily get excited - I recall him throwing away a Class 4 novice chase at Ludlow just over twelve months ago. In a recent stable tour Philip Hobbs said of Triggerman, 'Although he won two noivce hurdles at Wincanton, he's suited by a galloping track', while I'moncloudnine was only just run out of it on his seasonal reappearance at Bangor. I've never found the Badger Ales particularly easy (Swansea Bay was my last winner in this in 2003); I'moncloudnine looks young enough, open to improvement and he won't be inconvenienced by further rain so I'll have a small each-way wager - Stan James and Victor Chandler go 12/1 this evening.

The Elite Hurdle should prove informative. Australia Day, Barizan and Black Jack Blues like to race from the front and there is a danger they'll set this up for something coming from behind. Australia Day broke the course record at Kempton the last time but rain will be a hindrance while Barizan was slightly disappointing on his return - comments from connections after that run appeared to indicate they'd maybe look at novice chasing so I'm not tempted to chance him here. Nearby has surprised connections with two wins but Rebecca Curtis' Black Jack Blues looks progressive and gets the nod with claimer Aodhagan Conlon taking off a handy-looking seven pounds.

A mares' handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last April suggests there won't be much between Alasi and Banjaxed Girl in the 1.40. If Nicky Henderson's Kerada is marked up as a short price favourite, I'll chance top weight Banjaxed Girl provided the ground isn't too soft.

The market suggests the novice chase at 2.45 is between Robinson Collonges and Wishfull Thinking. The former, a striking grey, looked most impressive at Bangor the last time while the latter fell at the first in an Aintree novice. Philip Hobbs, not one known for recklessly talking up his charges, said recently of Wishfull Thinking, 'He's in grand order and I hope he has a big future over fences.' You pays your money and takes your choice - the Hobbs horse has raced mostly with plenty of cut in the ground - I'll stick with Robinson Collonges.

A couple of quick notes for Sandown. Two of Charlie Longsdon's caught the eye - Songe (runs in the 2.20) won as he liked the last time. The handicapper has done his worst and raised the Hernando gelding thirteen pounds for his trouble but there could be more to come. The concern would be his fencing at a track where jumping is at a premium - he's inexperienced compared to several of tomorrow's opponents. Meanwhile Bun Oir has his first run for the Longsdon yard in the juvenile hurdle, having come over from Jessica Harrington's in Ireland. Only four go in the novice chase - Pepe Simo didn't jump well at Fontwell the last time and although connections report they have done plenty of schooling I wouldn't be tempted at a short price.

Finally Kauto Star returns to action after his horrendous fall in the Gold Cup. At the time jockey Ruby Walsh was on record as saying he was just grateful the bay had walked away unscathed from the incident. The Star will reach the age of eleven in less than two months' time - is he as good as ever or will we see a sign that his powers are on the wane?

Sunday snippets

Following Denman's defeat last weekend, champion jockey AP McCoy came in for some unjustified criticism from certain quarters after being unceremoniously dumped on the Newbury turf. Alan Lee penned a piece in Tuesday's Times defending the champ while yesterday Harry Findlay, joint owner of Denman, was at pains to point out to the TV cameras that the bookies currently have Denman priced correctly for next month's showpiece; in this week's Weekender paddock judge Ken Pitterson also observed Denman was carrying condition. Nonetheless the casual observer who watches a bit of TV racing on a Saturday afternoon will be left with the distinct impression that these days it's Ruby Walsh who is riding the big race winners. Two articles in the weekend's papers aim to redress the balance - David Walsh conducts an in depth interview with McCoy in today's Sunday Times while Tony shared the secrets of his success with readers of yesterday's Daily Mail.

The loss of Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle card on Saturday has left Nicky Henderson with a headache as he tries to get another run into Punjabi before the Festival. The trainer is now pinning his hopes on the addition of a two mile hurdle race to Saturday's Kempton card - a decision will be made tomorrow. If that plan falls through, I guess a racecourse gallop will be on the cards for the current champion hurdler who is known to be quite a stuffy horse.

Me Voici (11/10f) looked the part when taking the Victor Ludorum at Haydock yesterday; bookmakers offer 25/1 about the winner for the Triumph but connections indicated they may miss the race. It's worth noting that in this race Venetia Williams' Stars Du Granits opened 100/30 on course, was backed in to 2/1 second favourite but got no further than the second flight. Similarly Monsieur Jourdain (25/1) threw away any chance he had with a terrible jump when in the lead four from home.

Following the death of former jockey and writer Dick Francis last Sunday, I was surprised by the number of people who came up to me and said they hadn't realised he was on board when The Queen Mother's Devon Loch famously 'did the splits' within sight of the winning post in the 1956 Grand National. There have been several tributes to the great man - I favoured this obituary in Monday's Daily Telegraph.

Finally to finish with... The Festival is a little over three weeks away - get yourself in the mood with this behind-the-scenes look at the the making of the Cheltenham Charity Song.

Saturday digest

With overnight temperatures forecast to go down to minus three, inspections are scheduled for all tomorrow's turf cards; the covers are in place at Ascot but clerk of the course Chris Stickels doesn't envisage any problems.

Nicky Henderson has probably had better weeks with Binocular being scratched from the Champion Hurdle entries on Wednesday and Zaynar being turned over at odds of 1/14 at Kelso on Thursday. Normal service was resumed today with Oscar Whisky's easy victory in the Kylmar Novices' Hurdle - that one now goes for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham next month; William Hill bet 16/1. The trainer will be hoping to start tomorrow's proceedings with a short-priced double courtesy of Finian's Rainbow in the opener and Burton Port in the next, the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.

Only six go in the Betfair Ascot Chase but it's still very competitive. Several of these are closely matched - on official ratings Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is the one to beat; he hasn't raced this far previously and jumping proved his undoing here the last time when one bad mistake handed the initiative to Albertas Run. Herecomesthetruth has a mind of his own and seven pounds to find with the Hobbs horse but Paul Nicholls clearly expects a big run in a race that has been the target for some time. The other one I'd consider is Alan King's Oh Crick. He was beaten by Planet Of Sound in the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut (with the yard stuggling to find form) but made eye-catching progress the last time when staying on into third behind Twist Magic in the Victor Chandler. The extra distance here should suit - the 8/1 on offer this evening from totesport is tempting. However I'm going to side with Herecomesthtruth who is 3/1 with most layers at the moment.

Menorah, currently 8/1 second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, will be short odds to take the 3.45

If the Haydock card gets the green light, the Blue Square Gold Cup will be the highlight run over three and a half miles on ground described as heavy. Several of these met in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas; that day Dream Alliance collected the spoils although he was very nearly reeled in by the fast-finishing Silver By Nature. That one reopposes here on two pounds better terms for threequarters of a length beating - there shouldn't be much in it at the line. The form of Lucinda Rusell's stable (one win from twenty runs in the past fortnight) is a concern. Le Beau Bai is on the small side for a chaser but may well take to this tight track while Coe has a decent record here over jumps - two wins and three placings from six runs. Last year's National winner Mon Mome has his share of weight as you'd expect but he's made steady progress through the season - Venetia Williams' yard is in better form now - at around 12/1 I'll have an each-way bet.

There are some interesting contenders in the 2.30. Bouggler ran well for a long way when beaten by Tidal Bay at Cheltenham the last time but I note that stable jockey Jack Doyle is on Pause And Clause here. Souffleur's fourth behind Mamlook at Ascot looks good given the winner that day ran fourth in the totesport Trophy at Newbury a week ago; that's the first piece of form Souffleur has shown for some time - I'll take an each-way interest at around 10/1 provided eight go to post.

Wincanton is a speed track - Punjabi is worth taking on with Starluck (6/4) in the Kingwell Hurdle (3.50). Henderson is on record as saying that although the champion is straighter than this time last year, the heavy ground will not suit.

Boxing Day selections

The weather is likely to have its say with many of the scheduled cards, so I've concentrated on the King George meeting at Kempton and added a couple of observations for Wincanton which doesn't have an inspection planned at the time of writing.

My local Ladbrokes has a big sign in the window, encouraging punters to come in and have a bet on 'Kauto Star Day'. I'm a Kauto Star fan and hope to see the great horse win the King George for the fourth time but I won't be backing him at 4/7. I'm going to bet an each-way chance at bigger odds and the three that make most appeal are Barbers Shop, Deep Purple and Nacarat. Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop finished fourth in the Hennessy and has plenty to find on official ratings but this three mile trip should suit better; 18/1 in places is tempting. Deep Purple proved he stays three miles when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and has since won a competitive-looking Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. This is a step up but the handicapper rates him the fourth best horse in the race (behind Kauto, Imperial Commander and Madison Du Berlais). The stable is in form - 14/1 is generally available. I've a mention for front-runner Nacarat as Tom George's stable jockey Sam Thoams has chosen this one rather than Tartak. Nacarat won the Racing Post Chase over course and distance in impressive fashion last February. He clearly likes Kempton but his two runs this season have been dismal; having said that, Tom George's yard is firing again now. I've already taken out a small interest in Barbers Shop; looking at the above, the percentage each-way call appears to be Deep Purple.

The Christmas Hurdle (2.30) is intriguing. Binocular is the best horse in the race but he disappointed badly in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle the last time, a race won by Go Native who reopposes here. That race was something of a tactical affair; once again it's not immediately obvious where the pace will come from. A mention for Starluck, a speedy course and distance winner; he's a horse I like but as a four-year-old looks up against it. The word is Binocular is back to his best but I'm tempted to go with Go Native - Noel Meade has won this race in the past with Harchibald (twice) and Jazz Messenger.

Many will think the Feltham (1.55) is there for Nicky Henderson's French purchase Long Run, receiving weight from all his rivals; the owner's son takes the ride. Having had my fingers burnt in this particular race on a couple of occasions in the past, I'll watch from the sidelines; the Kempton fences are plenty stiff enough for novices learning their trade.

Bellvano, currently second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, is likely to be a short price in the opener. Inventor beat King Olav one and a quarter lengths at Ascot seven weeks ago (Manyriverstocross third); on the bare form King Olav might be expected to reverse placings eight pounds better off but the winner won well enough. Philip Hobbs' Menorah is well regarded and didn't appear to appreciate the set up in trip the last time while course and distance winner Cootehill is likely to race from the front. The winner has come from the first three in the betting eight times in last nine years; Bellvano is the one to beat but I'm going to play King Olav each-way if the price is big enough.

At Wincanton Nick Gifford's Royal Wedding is noted in the 2.20 although the yard hasn't had a winner for well over a month. Some interesting runners in the 3.25 - Ashkazar was sixth in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Venetia Williams, another who hasn't been in the best of form, fields four, stable jockey Aidan Coleman opting for Chief Yeoman. Aachen is well regarded but in contrast to most of his opponents this is his first run since the spring. In the concluding bumper I'd be tempted to take a chance with Megastar if not priced up favourite - the last time he had Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall back in fourth and that one has won since; the jock's seven pound claim offsets the penalty incurred for the win.