Christmas capers...

This year the Christmas cranberry sauce has been made using four tablespoonsful of 2015 late bottled vintage port - Graham's, of course - and now, well, I'm obliged to polish off the rest. 

That's no particular hardship, you understand, as I do enjoy the odd snifter at this time of year but, on sober reflection, I should point out it does very little to help with those tricky Christmas wagers.

Rain has certainly arrived - the local parade of shops resembled a scene from Blade Runner earlier today - and apparently 18mm of the wet stuff fell at Kempton where the going for the King George meeting is now described as soft.

Three of the four races to be televised from the track have just five declared and the King George nine.

From a betting perspective the small fields don't generate much interest although 16/1 about Royal Pagaille in the main event might look fair value should the going deteriorate further.

I've started work on the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow, Tuesday). 

The trends seem to point to a horse aged between six and eight years of age that has previous form at the track and is burdened with a light(ish) weight. 

Ask Me Early fits the bill but in terms of quality this year's race would struggle to compete with the majority of renewals over the past ten years. 

At the moment I'm considering Fortescue at a bigger price (20/1) as I believe connections have had this as a target. 

After a pipe opener in a Bangor novice hurdle in November, Henry Daly's charge raced in rear in the Becher Chase at Aintree three weeks ago and looked one of the first beaten; however, he made eye-catching late headway from three out to eventually finish fourth, beaten ten lengths.

Granted, he has his share of weight (11-6) but, if confirmed, regular pilot Hugh Nugent can claim three, and form last season behind Five Star Getaway and Royal Pagaille reads well.

I'll try to post a preview of this race after racing on Boxing Day. 

In the meantime, I think it's time for another glass...

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Boxing Day dilemmas

Tis the afternoon of the night before Christmas and the form books lie still...

No traditional Christmas Day post this year; here's an insight into the cogitations likely to be to the forefront of my mind while pulling the Christmas crackers.

An intriguing renewal of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, a race that doesn't make an awful lot of appeal from a punting perspective. 

After inflicting defeat on Altior for the first time, Cyrname turned up a short priced favourite for last year's running but flopped badly, stablemate Clan Des Obeaux taking full advantage; Cyrname has been campaigned differently this term and on official ratings is the one to beat. 

The Henderson camp has stumped up the £5,000 fee required to supplement Santini; connections have done their sums and calculated that a profit will be realised if their charge finishes in the first five. 

Lostintranslation didn't shine in the race last year and underwent wind surgery immediately afterwards. A fine third in the Gold Cup in March, he disappointed in the Betfair Chase at Haydock; Robbie Power thinks his ride is better on better ground.

The Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby 2.05) has piqued interest, primarily because only three of the nine declared have shown noteworthy form over three miles or further: Snow Leopardess (the grey mare raised nine pounds after catching Commodore on the line at Haydock five weeks ago); Wandrin Star (raised four pounds after finishing a neck behind Quarenta at Ascot); and The Dutchman (raised five pounds after being caught on the line at Haydock last time). 

To date Canelo has been well beaten on two previous attempts at the trip but trainer Alan King thinks this step back up will suit. 

Windsor Avenue appears to have prompted a difference of opinion with Paddy Power offering 7/1 while William Hill go 10/1; the gelding is not lightly dismissed. Brian Ellison's charge underwent wind surgery in January and has been given plenty of time to recover. His chance in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham last time disappeared at the start and that effort is forgiven. Quoting Ellison in a 'Straight from the Stable' feature in the Weekender 30.09.20 - 04.10.20:

'If you could see his work at home it screams out class and the work last week was very impressive. He should get three miles...'

Stablemate Definitly Red won the 2016 running off 141.

This time last year, following Not So Sleepy's nine length victory in the Betfair Exchange Trophy, I highlighted the chance of Hughie Morrison's three runners at Wincanton. Two of the three obliged, with Supamouse winning the concluding bumper 14 lengths. Talk immediately afterwards was of the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham but tragedy struck the following day when it was discovered the gelding had suffered a perforated intestine and couldn't be saved. 

Twelve months on and Not So Sleepy has won the 2020 renewal of the Betfair Exchange Trophy at odds of 20/1 - for the record, carrying none of my money. 

Updated figures for the stable's jumps runners read:

Season to date: 1 win from 11 runs (9%); +10 points profit

Last five years: 23 wins from 114 runs (20%); +47.25 points profit

The yard has declared the unraced Scanning in this year's Wincanton bumper (3.50). The following rhetorical question is asked in stentorian, overemphasised, John McCririck-like tones:

Has renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison been hatching a plot? 

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Christmas wishes for 2019

The blow-up beds have been deflated and salient family members shoved out the front door and up the road to church.

Fair play to the parish priest too - he's ever eager to play the part of pantomime villain by further elongating an already elongated religious celebration.

The Christmas Day post is never an easy post to write - looking to offer some small crumb of hope and comfort to those forced to spend the day with relatives they wished were a lot further away than they actually are. And then Auntie Betty drops her false teeth into the trifle.

Six cards (Huntingdon abandoned) to analyse before salient family members return - an impossible task, even with the initial spadework carried out last night.

The trouble is this year I think I might have chanced on something that might have half a chance.

The King George and Christmas Hurdle at Kempton promise some fascinating clashes but I won't be having a bet in either; Commanche Red can be given an each-way shout in the 1.20 on the back of  his third behind Nube Negra and his third behind Reserve Tank.

Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick Chase (2.10) will prove informative and Zerachiel - with seven pound claimer Charlie Todd in the plate - can be given every chance in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (2.15) on the back of his second place in this race last year.

I'm off to Wincanton though where Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow.

But what's this? Fresh from pulling off a stunning victory with Not So Sleepy at Ascot on Saturday, renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison sends *three* runners to the track - Urban Artist (12.55); Third Wind (1.25) and Supamouse (3.45).

The stable's updated figures with their jump runners after Not So Sleepy's win now read:

Season to date: 4 wins from 9 runs (44%); +23.50 points profit
Last five years: 23 wins from 116 runs (20%); +34.29 points profit

A 1 point each-way patent (outlay 14 points) returns 430 points (using prices quoted today as a guide) in the admittedly unlikely event Mr Morrison's three runners win.

Now, we all know it's been a bumpy year but at least there's something to distract you from Uncle Albert's political ramblings over the Christmas turkey...

With best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

The trouble with Christmas...

The trouble with Christmas - there are simply too many distractions and as a consequence one's form study suffers.

A couple of each-way Boxing Day longshots I'm going to mull over during Christmas dinner...

Double Shuffle (40/1) in a vintage renewal of of the King George (3.05 Kempton) on the back of his one length second to Might Bite in last year's race.

Allyson Monterg (11/1) in the Rowland Meyrick (2.10 Wetherby). Just eight declared and they'd all need to start for the bookies to pay three places but 14/1 has long since disappeared. Was pulled up behind Presenting Percy in the RSA and came home seventh beaten a long way by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy. I note that in the past decade all winners have been aged either seven or eight apart form According To Pete in 2011 and that in the same timeframe only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Cape Tribulation (2012) and Dolatulo (2014); Captain Chaos and Crosspark fit the required profile.

Food for thought.

Very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Christmas jumpers

On official ratings tomorrow's Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) looks at the mercy of last year's winner Unowhatimeanharry but his price has been steadily on the drift (out to 2/1 now) and the manner of the defeat by Beer Goggles last time has allowed room for the doubts to set in.

There's a school of thought that 'Harry', ten years old in a week or so, isn't the horse he once was.

Those looking to oppose are unlikely to be bowled over by the prices on offer.

The layers don't appear keen to take too many chances. Sam Spinner, with a record of four wins and two seconds from his six hurdle starts to date, is rated some 12 pounds inferior to the favourite yet is priced as low as 13/2 with Ladbrokes.

I like the Long Walk but this year's renewal looks difficult. Instead I've opted for an each-way chance in the concluding Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at 3.35.

Since the race's inception in 2001, no horse older than seven has secured victory and neither has one carrying top weight; last year Brain Power won under a burden of 11-11.

Elgin heads the handicap this year having won the listed William Hill Handicap Hurdle over course and distance at the beginning of last month (Air Horse One fourth, Verdana Blue fifth and Caid Du Lin seventh) and then following up in the Greatwood at Cheltenham two weeks later (Nietzsche sixth, Chesterfield tenth).

According to calculations I've carried out on the back of a discarded fag packet, Air Horse One is closely matched with both Elgin and, on a line through High Bridge, Charli Parcs, although the latter-named could well improve for his seasonal debut.

That said, Noel Fehily has ridden both Charli Parcs and Air Horse One; he was aboard the former at Newbury the last day and rides Air Horse One tomorrow.

Handler Harry Fry knows what's required - his Jolly's Cracked It dead-heated with Sternrubin last year (N. Fehily up) - and he should also have a decent idea where he lies with Air Horse One, Misterton finishing a neck second to Elgin in the Greatwood. Nicky Henderson has stated that both Charli Parcs and the mare Verdana Blue would appreciate slightly better ground.

Divin Bere, with Bryony Frost claiming five, warrants every respect; he has not been seen since finishing second in the Fred Winter and then second behind Defi Du Seuil at Aintree in April.

Seamus Mullins saddles two. Fergall ran a stormer to finish third in this last year at odds of 25/1 while Chesterfield came home eighth. The latter went on to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle but his comeback run in the Greatwood was a tad disappointing.

At the very bottom of the handicap Man Of Plenty has form behind Misterton, Limited Reserve (second in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle) and A Hare Breath which may suggest he could outrun his current odds of 66/1 (Betfair) but I'm conscious that in recent weeks blog selections have all been running like the proverbial drain...

I was taken with Air Horse One on his penultimate run here in the William Hill; Air Horse One is the each-way suggestion, available generally at 12/1 a quarter the odds four places.

On Boxing Day Bristol De Mai goes for the second leg of the £1 million bonus in the King George at Kempton.

His Racing Post rating of 189 is 11 points ahead of nearest rivals Fox Norton and Thistlecrack. That said, in a piece earlier in the week David Ashworth indicated the horse has shown his very best form on soft / heavy ground...

The going at Kempton is currently good to soft. Clerk of the course Barney Clifford states:

"I've two different forecasts, one with 20mm [of rain] and one with 5mm, so I have no idea... It's really volatile and sporadic - to have two forecasts so far apart, it's like the north and south pole. All I can do is tell people where we are."

Something to think about while the relatives squabble over Christmas dinner...

Season's greetings.

Boxing Day blues

A little like Victor Meldrew I feel I must be getting old and miserable because the Boxing Day cards have just failed to inspire.

In years gone by, driven to distraction by the family Christmas, I've attended Newton Abbot and Towcester races on St Stephen's Day but unfortunately those fixtures no longer form part of the racing calendar.

The withdrawal of Coneygree has paved the way for Thistlecrack to take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. A fascinating race in prospect, agreed, but with just five runners it's one to savour rather than bet on. The meagre turnout for this showpiece event is likely to be seen as something of an embarrassment in certain quarters.

A similarly small field is assured for Kempton's Christmas Hurdle where Sam Twiston-Davies will want to try and make all aboard The New One. Richard Harper has declared Gray Wolf River, rated some 104 pounds lower than The New One, in the hope of collecting place prize money; some layers have quoted odds of 5,000/1.

Hennessy form should come in handy in the next few days with Blaklion and Henri Parry Morgan declared for Monday's Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby while Native River, Carole's Destrier, Vyta Du Roc and Theatre Guide all hold entries for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday.

On form Blaklion looks the one to beat at Wetherby but after his fifth in the Hennessy pilot Ryan Hatch reported his charge had 'cut out' up the long home straight and connections were likely to consider a breathing operation...

Previous Welsh National winners Mountainous and Emperor's Choice will probably try to repeat the trick on Tuesday but, provided the going doesn't dry out too much, I'll take an each-way interest in Firebird Flyer.

Second in last year's race, Evan Williams' charge went on to win the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March and had a reasonable prep on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month. He starts from a mark eight pounds higher this time.

Looking slightly further ahead, ITV commences its racing coverage at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Richard Hoiles is the new lead commentator; I know I'm going to miss Simon Holt.

Happy Christmas!

Each-way value in 2015 King George?

In my opinion the best each-way value in this year's King George VI Chase at Kempton is previous winner Silviniaco Conti - 9/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill.

Happy Christmas to all readers!

Kempton's King George VI Chase 2014

Burdened with family commitments, this year I haven't spent as much time with the form book as I should have...

On official ratings Silviniaco Conti is the one to beat in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10). Paul Nicholls' charge did the blog a favour in Haydock's Betfair Chase last month; the softer the ground the better.

The next two in the market, Champagne Fever and Al Ferof, have never won over three miles so I've looked more closely at Menorah and Cue Card.

Both will appreciate drying ground and, according to the weather forecast, that's what they're likely to get.

Menorah has been something of a revelation this year winning Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase on good ground and then finishing two lengths adrift of Silviniaco in the Betfair where underfoot conditions were far more testing. In his younger days Philip Hobbs' gelding was known to have jumping issues but he has improved with age although I'm still reluctant to trust him implicitly over these obstacles.

Following a pelvic injury Cue Card has been a little slow to come to hand this term but connections have been making the right noises recently. Colin Tizzard's inmate was outstayed when beaten by Silviniaco in this event last year but he was aggressively ridden on that occasion and a more conservative approach may pay dividends; on official ratings he has three pounds to find with the favourite.

I can still see Cue Card emptying up the home straight in last year's renewal with the race apparently at his mercy and earlier fancier prices have disappeared as well so I'll take an each-way chance on Menorah (8/1) in the hope that his sticky jumping holds out.

Wishing all readers a very merry Christmas.

Kempton's King George VI Chase 2013

Nine are declared for this year's King George. Cue Card, fifth last year, is priced up favourite with most layers while last year's winner Long Run is generally a 10/1 chance.

Last month I tipped Silviniaco Conti for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite travelling well through the race, Nicholls' charge couldn't go with either Cue Card or Dynaste from two out and on face value he'll struggle to reverse those placings yet official ratings indicate he is within one pound of top-rated Cue Card. Nicholls' string wasn't firing on all cylinders at that time; on the same day as the Haydock showpiece Nicholls' first jock Daryl Jacob was at Ascot riding Al Ferof in a match against French Opera. Al Ferof's fencing looked a little ring-rusty there but Jacob stays loyal to Al Ferof.

Cue Card posted a career best to win the Betfair Chase proving he stays the trip. He's likely to race prominently but isn't always the most fluent at the obstacles; on balance I think he could struggle to repeat his front-running feat at this track - last year he blew away his chance with a howler at the first.

Dynaste was an easy winner of the Feltham over course and distance last year. In a very open renewal, I take Dynaste to grab the spoils - he's priced up generally at 100/30.

Long Run, wearing a first-time visor, rates a value each-way selection  at 10/1. Invariably he throws in one dodgy jump on the way round but should the visor do the trick...

On paper the Christmas Hurdle is a match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Throughout his career Twiston-Davies has favoured a bold risk-taking approach; he immediately nominated this race after his charge won the International at Cheltenham just 12 days ago, implying his charge had had an easy enough race. I'm not so convinced; I won't have a bet but this track is likely to suit Henderson's charge better.

The Prince and The King

Prince George Monday, King George Saturday.

As a betting medium Ascot's mid-summer showpiece makes less appeal than a Prince George souvenir mug, with Cirrus Des Aigles rated some twelve pounds clear of his field. The best racehorse currently in training anywhere in the world is likely to start at a price that reflects that fact; the favourite has obliged on six occasions in the past decade.

In search of a bit of value, I chanced upon the two mile skyvegas.com Handicap, the 4.40 at York. Moidore and Crackentorp head the weights - the pair clashed in the Northumberland Plate four weeks ago, the former finishing sixth, the latter tenth. Crackentrop is three pounds better off here - they look very closely matched.

All The Aces finished sixth behind Eagle Rock over course and distance last time, Art History eighth. Nicky Henderson's dual-purpose gelding was rated as high as 134 over hurdles and will appreciate the rain that has been forecast.

I like to follow jumpers running on the Flat - All The Aces is a speculative selection.

Boxing Day at Kempton 2012

Looking back at previous posts penned at this time of year, I couldn't help but think 2009's offering, entitled ' Rescue required', still hits the nail on the head...

The persistent rain is likely to affect several cards (Huntingdon already lost) but, all being well, Kempton's traditional Boxing Day card will go ahead as planned where the King George VI Chase is the feature. Ten declared for what looks sure to be an intriguing renewal.

Last year Kauto Star beat Long Run one and a quarter lengths (Captain Chris a further 17 lengths behind third). Kauto was scheduled to parade before this year's renewal and, as far as I'm aware, the rather public tiff between owner Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls shouldn't affect that arrangement; whatever, the great horse won't be running in the race itself and Long Run is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson's stable star was beaten by Silviniaco Conti on his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase at Haydock four and a half weeks ago; after that run connections hinted they may change tactics - I'm expecting to see Long Run ridden more prominently.

I'm sure we've heard racing people say that if any horse is ever going to get a three mile trip, he'll get it at Kempton (or Ludlow even) - Cue Card and Riverside Theatre, second and third in the market, have never won over the distance which is a concern, although the trainer of the former, writing in the Weekender, thinks his charge will ('... and in his current form is a major player') while the latter, owned by the Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership, has been aimed specifically at this race.

Nicholls relies on Kauto's half-brother Kauto Stone this year; the lack of big-race experience may worry some but it's worth noting four six-year-olds have taken this in the past twenty years, three in the past decade - Kicking King (2004), Kauto Star (2006) and Long Run (2010).

Grands Crus took last year's Feltham over course and distance but it's difficult to be confident here after his disappointing run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Tom Scudamore appears to prefer this one to The Giant Bolster. McCoy rides David Bridgwater's Gold Cup second who, in my opinion, is still a little underrated.

I think Philip Hobbs could have Captain Chris in better form than last year - I would have considered an each-way wager had the ground been better -  but, with the rain around, The Giant Bolster is the each-way selection at 10/1 or bigger. The worry is all his chase runs have been on left-handed tracks.

Countrywide Flame is as tough as old boots and did this blog a favour winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle; visually that was most impressive. Connections offered the ground as the reason behind Cinders And Ashes' disappoinitng defeat that day - the stable are in better form now (four wins from nine runners in past week). I'm loathe to desert Countrywide Flame but a four-year-old hasn't won this since Kerawi (1997) so course and distance winner Darlan offers slightly better value and is the tentative selection in a trappy-looking affair.

Dynaste looks the one to beat in the Feltham but he'll be no price.

Have yourselves a happy little Christmas!

Postscript (added 24.12.12 21:00): Of course, as Tom Scudamore is retained by David Pipe, he has never been in a position where he has had to choose between Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster. Writing in today's Times, Scudamore says 'I am hoping that a recent breathing operation has restored his [Grands Crus'] powers.'

Market Rasen's Summer Plate meeting

I'm short on time so some very quick notes...

The weekend feature, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Ascot 4.35), is intriguing. Last year's winner, Nathaniel, took the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown a fortnight ago with a gutsy display on his seasonal debut; there must be some concern he won't have fully recovered from those exertions. In a race where the market has proved a decent guide in the past, I prefer Sea Moon to St Nicholas Abbey following his victory in a competitive renewal of the Harwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot but Sir Michael Stoute is not overly bullish about his colt's chance in a piece in today's Times so I'm not going to play. The three-year-old Japanese runner Deep Brillante (20/1 Bet Victor) is the each-way suggestion for those interested; at the time of writing bet365, 888Sport and Blue Square are the layers offering a quarter the odds a place.

Never mind the Flat, there's a decent jumps card at Market Rasen, with the Summer Plate (3.25) the highlight. You'd have reservations about the jumping with a few of those entered including Benbane Head, Tiger O'Toole, Eastlake and likely favourite Spock. Last year's winner Qulinton is a quirky individual who has been out of form for a while but last time hinted he could be on the way back and tries a visor here; Lawney Hill's I Have Dreamed has been running in hunter chases for the best part of 18 months. Peter Bowen regularly targets this prize, having won four of the last nine renewals; often he saddles several but this year he's single-handed with Al Co. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has declared two - I much prefer That'll Do (Harry Derham claiming seven) to Spock.  Al Co is my idea of the winner while That'll Do is suggested as an each-way alternative.

Finally, a couple to monitor - Mick Channon's Ctappers in the opener and Bellaboosh in the 4.40.

A Knight's chivalric retirement

Yesterday Henrietta Catherine Knight called time on a training career that saw her win three consecutive Gold Cups with Best Mate (2002-4) and the 2000 Champion Chase with Edredon Bleu; owned by Jim Lewis, those horses also won the King George VI Chase for her in 2002 and 2003.

Knight came into racing through a somewhat circuitous route.

Having gained her BEd (Oxon) qualification at Westminster College, Oxford, she taught biology and history at St Mary's School, Wantage, before embarking on a career trainng racehorses. Her first winner under rules was The Grey Gunner at Bangor-On-Dee in 1989, Bruce Dowling up; in 1995 she married former jockey Terry Biddlecombe and the partnership went to the very top of the profession, becoming affectionately known as racing's 'Odd Couple'.

In November 2005 stable star Best Mate collapsed and died of a suspected heart attack after being pulled up in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. The quest to find a replacement was doomed to fail and led to a split with ambitious Jim Lewis.

Biddlecombe suffered a stroke in 2011 - it's Terry's continued ill health that is behind Hen's decision to hand in her licence. The vast majority of horses will transfer to Mick Channon who trains nearby at West Ilsley.

Over the years I came to associate the yard with well-schooled novice chasers, with a preference for using riders you'd lean to calling horsemen rather than jockeys. A couple of personal memories from the gaff tracks ...

Young Warrior (Bruce Dowling) won me some money one sodden New Year's Day at Exeter in the early nineties. There had been a market move for a horse of David Elsworth's, Seven Of Diamonds, and that one came to win the race but took a heavy fall at the last. Young Warrior collected but Seven Of Diamonds spent a fair while on the floor before eventually rising to a round of applause from the enclosures.

Another run that sticks in my mind is that of Blowing Rock (Jim Culloty) in a novices' handicap chase at Hereford in October 1998. We'd taken 9/2 and the horse had jumped well, gaining ground over his opponents at most of the obstacles. Three out Culloty sent the Strong Gale gelding on; the form book reads '... 5 lengths clear and in control when fell last, unlucky...'

Hen is set to have her final runner in next few days; it could be Harvest Song, owned by HRH The Queen, entered up in the 2.30 at Newton Abbot on Wednesday. That would be some finale - in Derby week, Hen Knight trains winner for The Queen - at Newton Abbot!

A quick Boxing Day selection box

Kempton's King George VI Chase is the Boxing Day highlight with eight declared. Long Run is the top-rated animal; he's never been the one to trust implicitly at the fences but his class has seen him through more often than not. In the Betfair at Haydock he was beaten eight lengths by Kauto Star but put in a couple of howlers down the back straight second time around and should strip fitter here. Today's Times reports that a set of golden plates have been created for Kauto and will be presented to his trainer Paul Nicholls before the race. Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby have stamina questions to answer but Diamond Harry will stay on this his first try going right-handed. He was 18 lengths behind in the Betfair but Barry Geraghty takes the ride and looks value at 16/1 provided the eight go to post. Favourites have an excellent record in this race but I'll take an each-way interest in Diamond Harry who won't be inconvenienced by further rain.

Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.

Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.

Two worth a second look...

Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.

Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.

Looking back...and looking forward

A dramatic renewal of the King George this year with Nathaniel's victory overshadowed by Rewilding breaking a leg as he started his challenge up the home straight and having to be put down as a result of the injury. In difficult circumstances both winning jockey William Buick and trainer John Gosden spoke eloquently to camera immediately after the race, paying tribute to the Godolphin runner. At the time of writing Nathaniel is 8/1 for the Arc. Last year's Arc winner Workforce looked the likely winner of this year's King George until he veered badly off a straight line in the final furlong, hanging left and going down by two and threequarter lengths. Since the laying of the new course and the building of the new stand at Ascot, I have previously seen some horses hang towards the stands rails in a similar fashion, particularly when the sun casts a shadow over the track. I guess connections will be at a loss to explain this running; Workforce is a 7/1 chance with Coral to win this year's Arc.

Here's my interpretation of the King George tactics... The word beforehand was Debussy would set a honest, even gallop but in the event he did nothing of the sort. Ahmed Ajtebi took his mount to the front and then promptly but the brakes on. With Rewilding settled at the back, I'm assuming the plan was to make opposing jockeys, particularly Ryan Moore on Workforce and William Buick on Nathaniel, restrain their mounts and thereby waste valuable energy. Full marks to Buick who quickly adapted to circumstances and let his mount stride on. For the spectator, though, it led to a messy race.

One final note from Ascot... During TV coverage Clare Balding told viewers that Willie Carson had received a strong tip for 40/1 chance Palace Moon in the International Stakes. In the event the gelding was declared a non-runner but might be worth a second look if seen out in the next couple of weeks.

Two meetings to monitor in the coming week - Glorious Goodwood (Tuesday - Saturday) with the much anticpated clash between Frankel and Canford Cliffs set to take place in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday and the Galway Summer Festival (Monday - Sunday) with the Galway Plate scheduled for Wednesday and the Guinness Galway Hurdle for Thursday.

Finally, it's been a fair week's work for golf agent Andrew 'Chubby' Chandler. This time last week Chubby was interviewed on BBC TV as Darren Clarke collected the 2011 Open Championship at Royal St George's, Sandwich. Six days later and Chubby was amongst the winners once again as his Hoof It, owned in partnership with golfer Lee Westwood, landed York's six furlong Sky Bet Dash with something in hand. Connections now have Saturday's Stewards' Cup firmly in their sights...; this evening Hoof It is the 7/1 favourite with most layers.             

King George day at Ascot

Only five go in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow but it looks particularly intriguing. On ratings, there's little to choose between Workforce and Rewilding while Coolmore has surprised many by putting up trainer's son Joseph O'Brien on St Nicholas Abbey. Nathaniel has course and distance winning form and has been supplemented at a cost of £75,000; Debussy is set to act as pacemaker for Rewilding. Over the week the market has changed significantly with Workforce now a clear favourite following a favourable gallop at Newmarket on Sunday. Rewilding, with Ascot specialist Dettori in the plate, has to be the value; William Hill offered 7/2 until early afternoon but now go 3/1; 100/30 is generally available. Connections think they have found the answer to the colt's apparent inconsistency last season - he needs a break between races. Workforce flopped badly in this last year, leading some to question whether he disliked the track; trainer Sir Michael Stoute is on record saying his charge is in much better shape this year. A fascinating renewal - Rewilding gets the nod.

Continuing with a theme (Keys went in again (4/5f) earlier this afternoon), horses with NH form running over more than 12 furlongs tomorrow include:

4.05 Newcastle - Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau, Summerlea, Falcun, Hi Dancer, Strikemaster and Follow The Sun. Tillietudum has won novice hurdles at Perth, Bangor and Ayr by racing from the front. Jeu De Roseau has Towcester and Sedgefield handicap hurdles to his name and was beaten less than five lengths by Tillietudlem at Catterick last time; they look closely matched on the revised terms. Summerlea has his second run for new connections, having finished mid-division in a Punchestown maiden hurdle in October 2009. Falcun didn't look suited to the jumping game with two undistinguished runs in maiden hurdles; his latest run hints he may benefit from this trip after staying on well over 14 furlongs at Redcar the last time. Hi Dancer won a Sedgefield handicap hurdle off 108 in March at odds of 25/1. Strikemaster boasts little NH form of note but Follow The Sun has won a Southwell two mile handicap chase. Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau and Falcun are of interest - Falcun is a tentative suggestion.

4.45 York - Bow To No One, Simonside and Profit's Reality. Bow To No One has run of the mill novice hurdle form over two miles that dates back to March/April this year. The mare finished second to 66/1 winner French Hollow at this course two weeks ago and on the back of that effort looks likely to go off the market leader; Spiekeroog made up plenty of ground to finish fourth that day and may well have improved for the run. Simonside was a Market Rasen bumper winner in 2007, won over course and distance last September and won his penultimate start at Ayr. Profit's Reality has raced 64 times with just the one start over hurdles at Bangor in August 2008. Bow To No One is of most interest; Simonside may find one or two too good in this Class 3 event.

6.15 Lingfield - eight of the ten runnners have NH form; Dream Catcher has won over hurdles but has been generally disappointing. No suggestion.

8.10 Salibury - Tropical Batchelor is the only one with jumps form but is of interest on the back of his close fourth at Haydock last week. The winner of the Haydock race, Spirit Of A Nation, goes in York's 4.45 (see above) and may provide a pointer to Tropical Batchelor's chance. Reg Hollinshead's Drawn Gold finished fifth at Haydock but reopposes on two pounds worse terms as the jockey isn't a claimer. Tropical Batchelor looks to represent a reasonable each-way shout (10/1 or bigger) on his third start of the season after a long layoff.

The day after the King George...

Kauto's brave attempt to win the King George for a fifth consecutive time failed yesterday but talk of his demise and early retirement are perhaps premature after it came to light that the eleven-year-old burst a blood vessel in yesterday's race. Fighting talk from owner Clive Smith indicates he doesn't think age has caught up with Kauto - connections are to prepare for another tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Layers take differing views this evening - Betfred offer 7/1, Stan James and William Hill 12/1.

Nicky Henderson had a fabulous day training five winners, including the winner of the King George, Long Run. Well done to amateur jockey Mr Sam Waley-Cohen who gave his mount a fine ride. Off the top of my head, the last amateur I can recall winning a high profile race is Mr Marcus Armytage who rode Mr Frisk to victory in the 1990 Grand National in a record time. Marcus Armytage now earns a living as a racing reporter for The Daily Telegraph.

If jumping is the name of the game, two horses whose jumping really caught the eye were Long Run and Binocular. Connections have clearly been hard at work with Long Run and it paid dividends yesterday. In the post-race interview Sam Waley-Cohen indicated this horse had problems shortening up at fences and Yogi Bresner had been called in to help. In the Christmas Hurdle Binocular was frighteningly quick over the obstacles - JP McManus' gelding is now as low as 5/2 to retain the Champion Hurdle in March.

Nicholls' other runner in the King George, The Nightingale, was disappointing - Sam Thomas pulled up the gelding three from home; later the horse was found to be suffering from a fibrillating heart, a condition from which stablemate Denman suffered in 2008.

Finally - bookmaker reaction to Henderson's five-timer? Half the odds on the handler winning the trainers' title!

Kempton and Warwick

There are nine races to lose your money on at Kempton tomorrow, the highlight being Kauto Star's attempt to become the first horse to win the King George VI Chase five times. Layers think this one is a foregone conclusion; the ease in the ground is unlikely to suit a number of Kauto's opponents including Planet Of Sound, RiversideTheatre (in which actor James Nesbitt owns a share), Albertas Run and Nacarat. Early in the week the value disappeared about The Nightingale (now 9/1 in places) - the gelding tries three miles for the first time here. Long Run is very talented and would be of some interest but for me his jumping is still a problem; when he won the Feltham over course and distance just over twelve months ago he hit a few on the way round and still has a tendency to throw in the odd poor leap. A stat which could be something or nothing - in the last fortnight Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners from 36 runners (11.11%) while Nicky Henderson has had 14 winners from 38 (36.84%). Over the years Nicholls has tended to inoculate his charges against equine flu at this time of year - traditionally this is a quiet time for the stable. The King George looks a race to savour rather than bet on - I hope to see Kauto Star collect the spoils and enter the history books in the process.

Only six go in the Christmas Hurdle but it looks intruguing. I always think Kempton is Starluck's course after his easy win in the juvenile hurdle two years ago and he could be considered slightly unfortunate to go down by a short-head to Go Native in this last year; the grey may just appreciate slightly better ground. On a line through Peddlers Cross (beat Starluck and Binocular the last time at Newbury) Donald McCain should have a decent enough idea of Overturn's chances - this one can make the running but I've never considered Kempton a course for front runners. At the prices available I'm going to bet the Champion Hurdle runner-up Khyber Kim (3/1) as a play against likely favourite and current Champion Hurdler Binocular.

The Lanzarote looks difficult - Palomar was of interest and Brian Ellison is in very good form (6 wins from 23 runs in past fortnight) but the gelding doesn't looks certain to stay the trip - priced at around 9/1 I've decided not to play. Having just written that though, Coral's 18/1 about Songe looks far more tempting...

The big race at Warwick, where an 8.00am inspection is planned, is the Classic Chase at 3.20 in which sixteen are set to face the starter. Conditions will suit market leader Le Beau Bai from Richard Lee's yard - the trainer bagged a nice double at Hereford on Thursday - while Aidan Coleman has talked up Officier De Reserve (10/1 totesport) a couple of times this season. Provided the meeting gets the green light I'll take a small each-way interest in the other one from Lee's yard, Incentivise - VC offer 12/1 this evening.

It has to be said Warwick's chances don't look particularly good with the track reported unraceable earlier today. However if they do go, another I'll consider at a big price is Tom Wade in the opener. The heavy going is a complete unknown but this one ran well for a long way at 100/1 behind Sam Winner the last time.

The crying is done; what next - Goodwood or Galway?

Generally speaking I hate to see a man cry. This week I discovered there have been several reports in the press of men crying after watching Toy Story 3. One man who had no qualms about weeping openly on national television was Highclere manager Harry Herbert after Harbinger won the King George by an astonishing eleven lengths. I wonder if Workforce's jockey Ryan Moore had a tear in his eye after the Derby winner trailled in a disappointing fifth of the six runners? Connections have blamed the ground and the fact that the colt, usually a relaxed custoner, was too keen in the early stages.

The five days of Glorious Goodwood start on Tuesday, a meeting at which Mark Johnson has been the leading trainer on seven occasions. The menu looks something like this:

Tuesday 27 July features the Betfair Cup at 3.25; first race 2.10
Wednesday 28 July features the Sussex Stakes in which last year's winner Rip Van Winkle will merit close inspection; first race 2.10
Thursday 29 July features the two mile Goodwood Cup - Dettori put up Kite Wood as his best chance at the meeting on Saturday's Morning Line; first race 2.10
Friday 30 July features The Golden Mile and the Richmond Stakes; first race 2.10
Saturday 31 July features the cavalry charge that is the Stewards' Cup and the Nassau Stakes.

If Glorious Goodwood makes demands on the stamina, it is as nothing compared to the seven days that comprise the Galway Festival which starts 5.10 sharp tomorrow evening with the HotelMeyrick.ie and the ghotel.ie Novice Hurdle. Races of particular interest during the week include the Galway Plate (5.25 Wednesday) in which Nigel Twiston-Davies is set to saddle his first runner, Grand Slam Hero, and the Guinness Galway Hurdle (4.50 Thursday, which also happens to be Ladies' Day) in which Donald McCain is set to saddle his first runner, Northumberland Plate winner Overturn. The going this evening is described as good to yielding, yielding in places. How I wish I could be there!

One Group One and One Group Two

A select field of just six will face the starter at 4.25 for tomorrow's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - this evening it was announced that John Gosden's mare Dar Re Mi, owned by Lord Lloyd Weber, will miss the race on account of a bruised foot. The three-year-olds, the 'classic generation', have a good record in this which augurs well for impressive Derby winner Workforce as well as Cape Blanco; the favourite has collected the spoils on eight occasions in the last ten years. In today's Times Alan Lee reports trainer Sir Michael Stoute warning that the biggest threat to the market leader may come from within his own stable - Harbinger has progressed very well since his win in the Hardwicke Stakes five weeks ago. The stable's other runner, Confront, has been allocated pacemakng duties and for that reason is quoted at 250/1. It is not surprising stable jock Ryan Moore elected to stick with the horse that won Epsom's showpiece. The lead story in today's Racing Post informed us the layers were out to 'get' Workforce - he's best-priced 11/10 with William Hill and Coral this evening. Workforce is my idea of the winner in a race that doesn't really make that much appeal as a betting medium. In search of a bit of value, I'm going to take an each-way interest in Daryakana at 16/1. The last filly to win this was Time Charter in 1983 - having said that, Alain de Royer-Dupre's charge prefers racing right-handed, beat the colts in the Hong Kong Vase last December and has been trained specifically for this race since.

Up at York the bare eight go to post for the Sky Bet York Stakes at 3.05 - this evening several bookmakers go 4/1 the field. On official ratings Monitor Closely is the best horse in the race; Michael Bell's colt hasn't been seen out since last September when he finished third in the St Leger behind Mastery. He may just need the run while the step back in trip doesn't look in his favour. John Gosden's Debussy is likely to appreciate cut in the ground while the two Godolphin runners are of some interest. Balius is the higher rated of the two but is making his seasonal debut; Allybar finished third behind Gloria De Campeao on his penultimate run in the Dubai World Cup. That race took place on sand and looks good form - I fancied him at a price for the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot the next time provided, of course, he could transfer that form to the turf. In the event, he ruined his chance by pulling too hard in the early stages so I'd be willing to forgive but I'm not convinced he'll handle easier conditions here. Debussy ran creditably at an even bigger price in that same Ascot race, fading inside the final furlong to finish seventh, beaten under four and a half lengths. 4/1 Debussy is the bet.