Warwick's Classic Chase 2020

If Unibet ambassador Nicky Henderson thinks he's had a week of it with Altior, he should spare a thought for Harry and Meghan. After a right royal bust-up, they've been told fast track discussions about their future are likely to involve, amongst others, Home Secretary Priti Patel - enough to make anyone want to give up on a Dry January.

I suspect Henderson and Her Majesty could both do with a bit of a restorative and they'll be keen on Keen On providing the necessary cheer in the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Warwick 2.25).

And what's this? Chancellor Sajid Javid has booked Wednesday 11th March - Champion Chase day - for his first budget speech. Whatever next? Announcing the winner of the Labour Party leadership contest on the same as the Grand National?

The Sussexes may have taken the brave decision to move towards financial independence but this season's blog tips are taking me in completely the opposite direction.

Fair play to Hughie Morrison whose jumpers are doing their best to stem the tide - Maridadi goes in the 3.55 at Wetherby tomorrow - but if this were a boxing match, the ref. would have stopped proceedings some time ago.

The feature on tomorrow's Warwick card is the Classic Chase (3.00) for which thirteen remain at the tine of writing (NRs Rocky's Treasure and previous winner Milansbar); the going is currently described as soft.

Trained by Lucinda Russell, One For Arthur won the 2017 renewal before going on to win the Grand National at Aintree; Big River (from the same stable) held a five-day entry but connections have opted to pass on the long journey south and instead go to Kelso on Sunday.

It's no surprise to see The Conditional head the market. On just his second run for David Bridgwater the gelding beat West Approach at Cheltenham (Crosspark and Captain Chaos pulled up) before finishing a fine second in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury behind De Rasher Counter. The handicapper has raised him five pounds for that effort; this will be his first try beyond three and a quarter miles.

I've never previously held any particular reservation about opposing Kimberlite Candy; however his latest effort, a fine second in first-time cheekpieces in the Becher Chase behind Walk In The Mill, certainly caught the eye. The cheekpieces remain in place - J P McManus will expect a bold bid.

Luca Morgan takes seven pounds off top weight Le Breuil who finished seventh in the Becher, some 17 lengths behind Kimbertlite Candy. Ben Pauling's yard wasn't firing on all cylinders at the time and I know his charge won the 2018 National Hunt Chase on soft ground over four miles at Cheltenham but I just feel Le Breuil is a better horse on better ground.

Both Petite Power and Bobo Mac arrive here in rude health; the latter's best chase form appears to be on a right-handed track.

Darlac's lack of chase experience is off-putting but I note that Impulsive Star won last year's renewal on just his sixth start over the larger obstacles (Crosspark third). Neil Mulholland's charge has been pulled up on every start since so connections swap cheekpieces for blinkers in the hope of sparking a revival.

Captain Chaos' second behind Takingrisks in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November reads well but other recent efforts look below par; trainer Dan Skelton has described his charge as 'an unlucky horse last year' but overall his profile is inconsistent.

Heads To The Stars has a nice racing weight and Hugh Nugent claims five but the jumping has caused problems in the past while Joueur Bresilien doesn't look guaranteed to stay.

Veteran Mysteree would be no forlorn hope if in the mood - this one was beaten a neck by Crosspark in the Eider last February and won at Kelso in October.

Writing in the Weekender Paul Kealy picks Kimberlite Candy indicating he had trouble finding one at a price. I know exactly what he means but I'm going to chance last year's third Crosspark who did me a big favour in the Eider and ran well in the Scottish National.

Caroline Bailey's charge has finished well beaten on both starts this term.

He was pulled up behind The Conditional at Cheltenham and then finished 74 lengths behind Lord Du Mesnil at Haydock just before Christmas. Perhaps the spectacles need some heavy-duty adjustment but he looked handy enough four out the last day before tiring; a mistake three from home ended any hope and he was eased when his chance had gone. The handicapper has dropped him two pounds for that effort and Jamie Moore is back in the plate.

Both Sky Bet and  Paddy Power offer 12/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places. Crosspark is the each-way suggestion.
 

Quick thoughts on Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown

Punchestowns took the Graduation Chase at Kempton earlier today and in the process helped Nicky Henderson reach 2,000 career wins but for much of the trip the 4/6 favourite looked in trouble behind the front-running Pasco. However the grey slowed markedly up the home straight thereby allowing Barry Geraghty to galvanise his mount to an improbable eleven length victory. Pasco finished distressed in second; after the race trainer Paul Nicholls sent out a tweet indicating the grey had choked and would be sent for a breathing operation in due course.

Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...

Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.

The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...

Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)

Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.

At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.

At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.

Thoughts on Halloween

Quick notes from Wetherby yesterday... Deep Purple ran a fine race in the Charlie Hall - Evan Williams' charge was fairly eating up the ground at the finish, much as he did in the race last year. The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on December 9th is the next stop. Interviewed on Channel 4 by Derek 'Tommo' Thompson, owner Graham Wylie put up three to keep an eye out for - Tidal Bay (finished third behind Fair Along in the John Smith's Hurdle), Presenting Forever and On His Own; the last named has a five day entry in the 3.10 at Hexham on Friday. Coastley was going well enough for a 28/1 shot in Fair Along's race but put in a howler at the ninth flight that practically stopped him in his tracks. He was pulled up shortly afterwards but could be of interest in the future, a comment that also applies to Gary Moore's Bogside Theatre who ran well for a long way at the head of affairs before taking a crashing fall three from home - the obvious concern is the mare's confidence will have been affected. Calgary Bay, a big-looking beast, appeared to be travelling sweetly and set for a place at least as the principals came to the top of the final bend but the gelding found disappointingly little when asked a question. Perhaps Martin Todhunter's outsider That's Rhythm (finished fifth) will be worth a second look when dropped a little in class. Gilbarry went into many notebooks when taking the opening novice chase by beating 6/5 favourite Osric, the pair 30 lengths clear of Knockavilla in third.

This season Paul Nicholls has moved stables and now writes a column for Betfair. The Racing Post, not to be outdone, hit back by announcing on Saturday they had signed up Nicky Henderson. In his first piece for the trade paper the Lambourn trainer kept punters in the picture by indicating many of his string were two weeks away from where he wanted them to be.

Weird Al returned to the track at Carlisle earlier today; Ian Williams' charge got up on the line to dead -heat with Little Josh over a trip that is probably short of his best. I was surprised to see Cape Tribulation sent off favourite for this intermediate chase; the bay didn't jump all that well at Hexham the last time veering left on occasions - that trait was evident again. He lost his position from the eleventh and was soon pulled up.

With Cheltenham's Open meeting less than a fortnight away, a quick reminder that Cheltenham Racecourse station is currently closed due to a landslip south of Gotherington Halt. Repair work has started - the latest estimate I have is that services are unlikely to be restored before mid summer; further details on the Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway website.

Finally, as highlighted on The Morning Line, Donald McCain's Drill Sergeant (formerly with Mark Johnson on the Flat) is blessed with ability but comes with quirks. Holding a fifteen length advantage in a Haydock novice hurdle, the Rock Of Gibraltar gelding pulled himself up at the the exit to the stables, going from first to last in a matter of strides. McCoy worked the magic though and the 11/10 favourite still ran out the winner, beating Brother Bob a length. In a recent stable tour article Donald McCain had said, 'It is possible we will ride him more positively in the future over 2m...' My guess is connections will be reviewing that approach. Incidentally, the form appears to pay a compliment to Kilcrea Kim who beat Drill Sergeant over two and half miles at Bangor. That one has a five day entry in the 1.35 at Exeter on Tuesday.

Anticipation, fun and misuse of the whip

As the National Hunt season moves into gear, I'm reminded of the old saying: horse racing - half the fun is in the anticipation. Here's a selection of early seaon targets for some well known horses, as noted in Saturday's Times:

Twist Magic (P. Nicholls) Haldon Gold Cup, Exeter

Tataniano (P. Nicholls) Cheltenham Open meeting

Kauto Star (P. Nicholls) Down Royal, November 6th; King George

Denman (P. Nicholls) Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury

Imperial Commander (N. Twiston-Davies) Betfair Chase, Haydock

What A Friend (P.Nicholls) Betfair Chase, Haydock

Master Minded (P.Nicholls) Ascot, late November

Additional running plans noted include:

Big Fella Thanks (F.Murphy) Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury

Wolf Moon (M.Keighley) Cheltenham Showcase meeting, October 15th

Total Submission (M.Keighley) Cheltenham Showcase meeting, October 15th

Benbane Head (M.Keighley) Cheltenham Showcase meeting, October 16th

There's a whisper in some quarters that Nicky Henderson can take the trainers' title this season. John O'Hara's comment is worth noting: 'In all my time of talking to trainers for the Weekender I have never seen a jumps yard more full of quality than the one Nicholls is preparing for the 2010-11 season'. William Hill bet 4/9 Nicholls, 2/1 Henderson, 20/1 bar.

In a driving finish at Chepstow yesterday Ruby Walsh managed to get the Paul Nicholls trained Escort'men home a nose in front of 2/1 favourite Olofi ridden by Paddy Brennan. After Walsh had dismounted, he had recourse to resort to the whip once again before weighing in as a gentleman dressed in a red T-shirt entered the winner's enclosure and attempted to mount the chestnut gelding. The offender was promptly chased off by Walsh, the threat of a slap from the persuader enough to bring the him into line. The culprit was quickly escorted from the premises. Good Lord! Just what is the world coming to? Rumours that Walsh was subsequently given a one day ban by local stewards for misuse of the whip are wide of the mark.

Racing snippets

Plenty of drama at Wetherby yesterday - a thrilling finish in the Charlie Hall while Barry Geraghty would be the first to concede it was not his finest hour when taking the wrong course in the mares' listed hurdle. He received plenty of cat calls from disgruntled punters for that blunder but, fair play to the man, he was on national television a few minutes later holding up his hands and accepting responsibility. The stewards hit him with a twelve day ban which starts on November 14th, Paddy Power Gold Cup day.

As if all that wasn't bad enough for Geraghty, over at Ascot the Henderson stable bagged a couple of winners with French Opera and You're The Top - both ridden by one AP McCoy.

I always associate the specialist miler Cesare with Ascot. Connections have decided that the eight-year-old has been a little disappointing this season so James Fanshawe has indicated he intends to send his charge hurdling - I'll watch with interest.

Racing folk will always tell you there's more money in the Flat game; a couple of notes, just to prove the point... Teletext report Eddie Stobart CEO Andrew Tinkler has recently spent over £400,000 guineas on a gelding named Royal Diamond while the stud fees for Sea The Stars make interesting reading. In his debut season he will cover in the region of 120 mares at a cost of 85,000 euros (£77,000) a go. Over three years the horse, set to stand at the Aga Khan's Gilltown Stud in Ireland, will generate income in excess of £50 million.

Having said that, at the other end of the scale, all weather racing celebrated a signifcant milestone at Lingfield on Thursday - its twentieth anniversary.

Finally, a pointer from today's NH card at Carlisle... Knockara Beau (a horse about whom I missed some fancy prices for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle last March) took the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, beating the well-touted Killyglen and landing a couple of lumpy wagers in the process. He looks worth keeping an eye on this winter.

Points of view

Yesterday Sea The Stars confirmed his superstar status at Sandown, winning the Eclipse a shade comfortably. In post-race interviews trainer John Oxx indicated the Irish Champion Stakes was the long-term aim, where a re-match with Fame And Glory could be on the cards. In the meantime, the King George at Ascot or the International at York are possible targets. The Sporting Life reports that Hills are offering 5/1 the colt remains unbeaten in 2009. If I struck that bet and the horse subsequently suffered an injury which meant he didn't run again during the season, I wonder if I could collect...

It's been a week the jumping community won't want to remember in a hurry...

In a beginners' chase at Stratford on Tuesday evening, an old friend Mistanoora made a mistake at the water, broke a leg and had to be put down. The following day there was something of a debacle at Worcester when Highland Laddie collapsed from heat exhaustion after finishing third in the opener. The horse was eventually revived but only after 800 gallons of water had been used, leaving no reserves for other runners on a scorching day. The rest of the card had to be abandoned. Summer jumping has been staple fare at Worcester for some time; these latest events led to a RSPCA advisor expressing his concern over the summer jumps programme and in particular horses landing on ground that is quicker than good.

On Friday Nicky Henderson was handed a record £40,000 fine and banned from making entries for three months (11th July - 10th October) after being found guilty of allowing the anti-bleeding drug tranexamic acid (TA) to be administered to the Queen's mare Moonlit Path before she raced in the TurfTV Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon on February 19th 2009. The reasons for the decision are given in full on the BHA website. I haven't gone through this document with a fine toothcomb but here are some basic points:

- on the day of a race a horse is allowed only food and water;
- TA is a prohibited substance and was given to Moonlit Path on the day of the race;
- Nicky Henderson broke the Rules of Racing;
- vet James Main, who adminstered the drug, refused to give evidence to the Enquiry;
- the omission of any mention of the injection in the Medication Book was 'part of a systematic attempt to conceal ... the use of TA';
- several racing commentators see the punishment as fair.

Having said all that, every cloud has its silver lining... Writing in Saturday's Times, Alan Lee hinted that it was unlikely the Queen would move her horses from Henderson's stable. Added to that, the three month ban has fallen at the most opportune time for Henderson, a time when the stable traditionally has few runners. Taking figures published in the Racing Post Weekender on 5th March 2008, the stable had 96 runners in the months of July, August and September over the preceding ten year period. From the month of November through to the following April, the core National Hunt season, the stable had 3451 runners over the preceding ten years.

Finally, Mrs Tips sends her apologies. She is exhausted having sat in front of the TV all afternoon watching the Men's Final - she has no energy left to write up her Wimbledon report from last week.