Frankie, Lucinda, Caroline, Michael - and the longest impending retirement I've ever known

Many years ago, at a time when I had to work for a living, one of my workplace managers - I occupied a humble, lowly position within a vast organisational hierarchy - announced, with some degree of relish, his impending retirement, having recently celebrated his 50th birthday.

You may have encountered a similar type.

At subsequent fortnightly catch-up meetings he'd invariably reference at some point his previous 'announcement' with the result that, within the matter of a few short weeks, we'd all grown fed up to the back teeth hearing about 'the retirement'.

The individual concerned eventually took the plunge at the age of 59 and, to this day, it remains the longest impending retirement I've ever had the misfortune to bear witness to.

However it would appear Lanfranco Dettori seems intent on giving my colleague a bit of a run for his money.

Having spent this, his 'final' season, telling anyone and everyone that he's about to hang up his riding boots after Qipco Champions Day at Ascot, Frankie has suddenly changed his mind and is now off to ride full-time in the States.

"I could be there three months or three years, I don't know," he said.

Well, bless my old boots.

Over the summer months Michael Scudamore has moved his operation north of the border to join forces with Lucinda Russell (and partner Peter Scudamore) while his brother Tom has taken over the reins at the Herefordshire base he vacated which will be used as a pre-training / satellite yard. 

The Russell-trained Lebowski ran without the declared tongue-tie in the Professor Caroline Tisdall Supports Heroic Jumpers Seniors' Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow earlier this afternoon. Sent off the 2/1 favourite, the bay raced from the front but was headed three out and weakened to eventually finish fifth.

Professor Tisdall is on record saying she wants to win two races above all others - the Grand National and the Cesarewitch.

Wordsworth carries her colours in the latter race tomorrow but wasn't quite poetry in motion when winning the first division of a Bangor maiden hurdle on his first run for David Pipe 10 days ago - Act Of Authority won the second division in a faster time.

Pied Piper, rated 157 over hurdles yet 96 on the Flat, heads the betting for the Ces but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in an old friend / adversary, Zoffee. 

This one finished fourth off the same mark in last year's renewal and looks to have had a similar prep - at the time of writing he's 20/1 with Sky who are paying eight places.

To finish, I note that Lucinda popped up on Desert Island Discs last month and included Wandrin' Star (Lee Marvin) in her list of eight tracks. 

Hmmm... Put me in mind of the time when I thought Walk In The Park would win the 2019 Becher Chase but I backed Wandrin Star (David Bass) instead. 

I don't need to tell you what happened.

Some jumping links for Saturday's cards

Pressed for time, so rather brief notes this evening...

Dual purpose handler Ian Williams has some interesting runners around the country tomorrow.

At Chester Swinging Hawk tries to repeat last year's victory in the Kozel Handicap at 4.15; he faces a stiff enough task off a rating six pounds higher. Swnymor, ninth behind runaway winner Our Conor in the 2013 Triumph Hurdle, has his first run for J. J. Quinn in the same race.    

Gifted Leader is getting on a bit these days but took a Class 3 Market Rasen hurdle with the minimum of fuss off a mark of 120 last month. Rated 82 on the Flat he makes some appeal as an each-way wager in Newmarket's 5.15 and George Downing can claim five but 10/1 isn't particularly generous. The gelding finished second behind Veiled in the 2011 running of this race; Veiled went on to win the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot that year.

Williams saddles two at Stratford's evening meeting. Sonofagun arrives in good form to contest the Severn Cider Handicap Chase at 7.25 while the consistent Fredo, entered in the three and a half mile handicap chase at 6.25, should be thereabouts.

Five Star Wilsham did the blog a favour at Ffos Las last week and goes again in that 6.25 race; trainer Twiston-Davies certainly isn't letting the grass grow... With the benefit of hindsight, the gelding was well in that day and has been raised seven pounds for his trouble; this looks much more competitive but likely favourite Oscarslad is taking on seasoned handicappers here and makes a market which contains several credible winners.

I'm going to stay loyal to Five Star Wilsham who holds a better chance of conceding weight all round on drying ground and should certainly see out the trip.    

Newmarket's Cesarewitch Trial

Tomorrow's Ayr Gold Cup looks far too difficult for this observer and there are easier races than Newmarket's Cesarewitch Trial at 3.40 but for some unfathomable reason the race just makes more appeal.

Course and distance winner Cosimo De Medici will be one of the more fancied runners after a victory on the all-weather at Southwell last time; he has been raised a harsh-looking 10 pounds for that effort.

The 18 furlong trip is likely to find out a few of these including Burnham and possibly Nanton (ninth last year), Saborido (thirteenth) and Body Language (last). Eagle Rock was fourth in that race twelve months ago and comes to this on the back of a victory at York; he has to race off a five pounds higher mark.

Mark Johnson saddles the first two in the handicap - his Courtesy Call came home second last year - but the biggest weight carried to victory in the four previous renewals is just 8-13; in the same timeframe the winner has come from the top four in the market.

Eagle Rock has the right profile but I've been on the lookout for a lightweight at an each-way price that should stay the trip - Ian Williams' Teak fits the bill.

This one has been kept busy over the summer and has a few miles on the clock but third behind Kangaroo Court in a Newton Abbott hurdle on his penultimate start reads well enough. Cheekpieces were tried on his last run but connections obviously felt they didn't help as they're omitted tomorrow.

Rated 111 over hurdles, Teak goes off a mark of 75 and appeals as a sporting each-way chance to run into a place - this evening most layers are offering 16/1, a quarter the odds four places.

Some Saturday suggestions

Those who have followed the blog over the summer months will know I've concentrated on horses with jumps form racing over distances beyond one and a half miles on the Flat; several familiar names are entered up for tomorrow's Cesarewich which is run over two and a quarter miles at Newmarket and is due off at 3.50. Of the 34 declarations, 16 have some type of NH form to their name; they are listed below with brief comments:

Sentry Duty Not the easiest to catch right and IMO better with some cut. Sixth last year;
Veiled Tipped on the blog, took the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Every chance;
Keys In my mind not certain to see out this extended trip;
Dayia 80/1 (Coral) is a big price about Lady Green's brown mare but her best form has been with cut;
My Arch Eighth last year;
La Estrella Done most of his winning in races with no more than 12 runners;
Phoenix Flight Out of sorts after excellent third behind Veiled at Royal Ascot - Coral's 80/1 looks big;
Rainforest Magic Dermot Weld's runner is a potential blot on the handicap - respected;
Braveheart Move Yet to win beyond 13f;
Gifted Leader Laid out for this? 50/1 available;
Palomar Not without talent but for me is one that needs things to fall just right;
Right Stuff Finished last behind Gifted Leader last time out;
Beyond Trainer David Pipe's best chance in the race;
Abergavenny Billy Wallace (The Prophet) makes a case for this one in the Weekender;
Bow To No One Mare finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes behind Hollins;
Tasheba Beaten over 25 lengths in a Fontwell handicap seven days ago.

General opinion is higher drawn horses are at something of a disadvantage as they will have to race wide around the bend. That being the case Beyond (stall 3) makes most appeal of the market leaders (14/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing). For those who must, two outsiders at an each-way price - Gifted Leader (50/1) and Phoenix Flight (80/1).

These days Chepstow's card doesn't get the coverage it once did but the clash between Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti should prove informative. I don't make a habit of betting novices on their first try over the larger obstacles but I prefer Silviniaco Conti, given he's won at the track previously. In the Weekender West Country correspondent Andrew King reports Nicholls' charge '...has been pleasing in his work at Manor Farm...' Others I fancied on this card have been marked up at rather short prices so I'll keep my powder dry. The going is reported as good to soft, good in places at the Welsh track.

Up at Hexham Chris Bealby's L'Eldorado looks a play against likely favourite Quite The Man in a competitive opener; Chris has a good word for the gelding in a post on his blog this evening.

Brief notes on selected Saturday races

On Wednesday evening I spent well over an hour on the phone to a fellow racegoer discussing the chances of Tom Dascombe's Misty Conquest in the 2.45 at Ayr. Regular readers will know that six furlong two-year-old sprints aren't my cup of tea at all but the point is this racegoer knows two members of the syndicate that owns the filly. Costing £5,000 as a foal, Misty has already won £20,000 in prize money and boasts decent looking form behind Lily's Conquest in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket and Sajwah in the listed Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury.

Connections were reportedly disappointed with her penultimate run at Longchamp over seven furlongs on good to soft ground. Earlier in the season she wasn't eating well but now the feed has been changed she is fine. This looks a close call with Misty Conquest two pounds behind top-rated Kohala and one pound behind Miss Work Of Art on official ratings but the former has never raced over the trip while the latter has never won at this distance although she put in an eyecatching effort at York last time; jock Paul Hanagan clearly rates Miss Work Of Art's chance. The general feeling is Misty would show better form on good ground but her third at Newmarket was on good to soft; the going at Ayr is currently reported as soft, good to soft in places. All of which makes me rather ambivalent; the tissue prices Misty Conquest at 5/1 and that price doesn't really make that much appeal...

The feature long distance race tomorrow is Newmarket's Cesarewitch Trial at 3.30 - 10 of the 18 declared have some NH form to their name; the Cesarewitch is scheduled for Saturday 8th October.

At the moment Dayia looks high enough in the weights and would prefer cut underfoot. My Arch won the Pontefract Cup in June and has been kept busy since. Palomar raced off a mark of 136 in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in March but doesn't strike me as the easiest to catch right. Hollins finished well behind My Arch in the Pontefract Cup but on that occasion ran as though something was amiss when losing his place five furlongs out; he has since won the Goodwood Stakes at odds of 20/1 and merits respect here. I'm finding it hard to drum up enthusiasm for Gordonsville but Mohanad was rated 129 when finishing mid-division in the Coral Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. French Hollow takes a step up in class but is on a four-timer after winning with something in hand at Chester the last time. Secret Tune made a belated comeback at Newbury last month while Sea Change, once with Jeremy Noseda, has his second run for current connections, having had just two tries over hurdles for David Pipe. Dark Ranger was rated 108 over hurdles  in April.

Suggestion: Hollins is interesting but I'm going to take an each-way chance with French Hollow at around the 10/1 mark.

Back at Ayr course and distance winner Chookie Hamilton makes slightly more appeal than Gogeo in the finale over 13 furlongs. No suggestion.

In the 4.55 at Catterick (14 furlongs) Danceintothelight likes to race prominently and beat Simple Jim some seven lengths here last year but the latter was conceding 20 pounds on that occasion and on revised ratings looks to have every chance of reversing the form, particularly if the ground stays good. Top weight Tropical Bachelor appeals as an each-way alternative with the jockey able to claim a handy-looking five pounds.

Suggestion: Simple Jim win (if ground good or quicker); each-way alternative: Tropical Bachelor.

Brief notes on Saturday's stayers

Four Flat races over more than twelve furlongs on Saturday; brief notes on runners with some NH form to their name...

Ascot 1.25 (Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap, 2m.)
Both Dayia and Phoenix Flight ran well at Royal Ascot but both finished last on their next run so caution is advised. Woolfall Treasure is taking time to come to hand this term; in contrast La Vecchia Scuola hinted at a return to some kind of form in the John Smith's Silver Cup at York. Dayia won't want conditions too quick but the mare has been dropped four pounds for her latest effort and would make some each-way appeal if the rain arrives. Suggestion: La Vecchia Scuola each-way.

Newmarket 4.50 (Red Lion Foods Handicap, 2m.)
Having won a Fontwell handicap hurdle in May, Lastroseofsummer has been in sparkling form, taking two Flat handicaps in July and she bids for the hat-trick here. Rae Guest's mare is likely to head the betting while Philip Hobbs' grey Zakatal, owned by Mr Terry Warner, will be challenging for favourtism. I'm tempted to take an each-way chance on the only other runner with NH form, Ambrose Princess. Michael Scudamore's mare was well in contention when coming to grief in a Worcester novices' chase last time but prior to that won over three miles at Southwell. Suggestion: Ambrose Princess each-way.

Redcar 5.10 (1m 6f.)
Half the field have some jumps form to their name (Zefooha, Heart Of Dubai, Spahi, Strikemaster, Seven Stars, Lisbon Lion, Haka Dancer and Carmelia Maria) but this looks a poor race. No suggestion.

Ayr 8.10 (1m 7f.)
Course and distance winner Tillietudlem has been busy of late; although the grey gelding finished sixth of the seven runners three days ago, he was beaten under two and a half lengths and merits respect in first time cheekpieces. Stablemate Circus Clown really catches the eye, having run well in the past in Class 3 handicap hurdles both here and at Perth. Rated 113 over the sticks, he must surely have a chance in this off a mark of 47 with jockey Shane Kelly able to claim an extra five pounds. The worry appears to be underfoot conditions as all his best form is on soft / heavy ground. Terenzium has plenty of miles on the clock but has been running well of late while Morning Time hasn't won in 11 attempts since coming over from Ireland a year or so ago. Clueless last won in 2005 and Ancient Times remains a maiden. Suggestion: Circus Clown win.

Talking horses

Carlton House was sent off 5/4 favourite for the Irish Derby earlier today but The Queen's colt could only finish fourth, Aidan O'Brien training the first three home - Treasure Beach (7/2) beat stablemates Seville (5/1) and Memphis Tennessee (10/1) to give the Irish handler his ninth victory in the race. This evening Paddy Power bet on the Ladbrokes St Leger as follows: 3/1 Nathaniel, 5/1 Treasure Beach, 6/1 Brown Panther, 8/1 Sea Moon, 10/1 Memphis Tennessee, 12/1 Seville.

I was out and about Saturday lunchtime when I received a phone call from a fellow racegoer I see at the races once or twice a year. He'd had a word from one of the owners of Misty Conquest who was due to run in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket. 14 had been declared but at the time of the call one had been withdrawn; Tom Dascombe's filly had been priced up 5/1 second favourite in a couple of the morning papers. Six furlong sprints aren't my cup of tea and a few in the field looked well fancied, including Queen's Revenge and My Propeller, owned by Newcastle footballer Joey Barton; last time out this one had won a six furlong Pontefract madien by an astonishing 17 lengths. After some consideration I decided not to play. When Channel 4 showed the race preliminaries, another two had fallen by the wayside (including My Propeller) and Misty Conquest was priced at 10/1. In the event, she knew her job, broke well, led to half way, eventually coming home third; she had no answer to the strong challenge of Lily's Angel (6/1) who won a shade more cosily than the distances might suggest and looks a smart prospect.

The Jamie Snowden trained 11-year-old Knighton Combe took this afternoon renewal of Uttoxeter's English Summer National at odds of 16/1.

Martin Waller (Tempus) penned an interesting piece in Saturday's Times under the headline 'No such thing as a dead cert for investors in online gaming'. Betfair is shortly set to release its first set of annual figures since the company's flotation; shares issued at £13 last autumn were worth just £7.43 at close of business on Friday evening.

Finally Will Hayler's blog in Saturday's Guardian highlighted Channel 4 presenter Lesley Graham's attempt to generate more interest in her nine bedroom Newmarket mansion which she is looking to sell following the collapse of her marriage to Neil;  a piece appeared in the property section of Wednesday's London Evening Standard. Back in March A.P. McCoy's house was on the market for £2.5 million but unfortunately the property was sold before I could arrange a meeting with my mortgage adviser. By comparison Ms Graham's pad looks a snip at just £1.4 million but I won't bother trying to contact my adviser as I happen to know he's on holdiay for a fortnight...   

In the frame...

Earlier this week Daryl Jacob was appointed Paul Nicholls' second jockey. Having read Lucky Break and Ruby: The Autobiography, I wondered whether Nicholls would have perhaps considered an alternative arrangement this time given that first choice Walsh missed much of last year's core NH season with a broken leg. Of course, Walsh is peerless and returned to action in March to ride five Festival winners. Nonetheless hints of tension in the partnership were inevitably present - Nicholls was known to be disappointed by Walsh's decision to ride Willie Mullins' Mikael D'Haguenet ahead of Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. In the Weekender Alistair Whitehouse-Jones reports that trainer Nick Williams has acted quickly and appointed James Reveley as a replacement for Jacob but hints that Reveley's reluctance to relocate south could lead to problems in the future.

It may be very early days in the new NH season but I've seen snippets from Simon Holt and Alan Lee suggesting two jockeys who could give current champion A P McCoy a run for his money this year are Jason Maguire and the aforementioned Daryl Jacob.

Mickael Barzalona rode a double at Newmarket yesterday and later Barcelona won the Champions League Final at Wembley, but did anyone else think Paddy Power were sailing close to the wind with the advertisement that interspersed Channel 4's racing coverage? A young lady showed viewers a mobile device displaying the message 'Barcelona win normal time, refund losing bets'; the lady in question then encouraged punters to go to a specific web address. In actual fact the refunds applied to Paddy Power's correct score, scorecast and first/last goalscorer markets only; although full details were displayed in 'small print' on screen, I thought the deliberate impression created was the refund applied to all bets struck.

Finally, a couple of horses you may wish to follow if, unlike Ryan Giggs, you're a fan of Twitter...

Twitter horse Trending @Trending_Horse trained by @jeremygask website: http://socialmediaracing.com/

The People's Horse @peopleshorse website: http://www.thepeopleshorse.co.uk/

Student Horse Tae Kwon Do @StudentHorse His progress has been mentioned on the blog previously; he obliged at odds of 9/2 at Fontwell earlier today.

Friday night ramblings

There's a decent enough card at Stratford tomorrow evening but I imagine the attendance is likely to suffer as Manchester United play Barcelona in the Champions League final at Wembley. The going at the Warwickshire track is described as good, good to firm in places, with 18mm of rain falling on Thursday. 11 go for The Gambling Prince Trophy at 7.20; a case can be made for most of them. Invisible Man pipped Swing Bill a neck at Worcester ten days ago with Commemoration Day another ten and a half lengths back in fifth; the winner that day may well struggle to confirm placings on the revised ratings. Two Welsh handlers in good form are Rebecca Curtis and Peter Bowen; the former trains The Jigsaw Man but I'm tempted to take an each-way chance with Bowen's Sunday City (16/1 in tonight's tissue). This one isn't easy to catch right and isn't certain to give his running but he retains some ability having won the Macer Gifford Handicap Chase at Huntingdon last autumn and appeared somewhat unlucky when slipping up at Ludlow on his penultimate run.

Another Welsh handler in form Tim Vaughan (25% strike rate in past fortnight) saddles The Ferbane Man in the Warwickshire Hunt Handicap Chase at 7.55. This one is a trier and a stayer but in a stable tour article last October the handler said 'He loves bottomless ground and grinds the opposition down.' With the going on the quick side I'll watch from the sideleines.

The booking of  McCoy for Amercian Art in the opener catches my eye. The champ has ridden Rebecca Curtis' well-regarded gelding Praxiteles before. I'll check the price before deciding whether to bet.

I'm sure Sir Alex Ferguson would welcome any diversion from the pressures of the build-up to a Champions League final but his two runners at Sandown last night failed to oblige. Pausanias finished fourth in a listed stakes while the somewhat inappropriately named Magic City could only finish third despite being sent off 10/11 favourite in another listed event. The irony is Magic City was beaten by Pyman's Theory, part-owned by Michael Owen. After pulling a stunt like that, I'd expect Owen to be leaving Old Trafford during the close season. Blue Bajan, a former Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner, took the two mile Henry II Stakes.

Following on from that prompt, horses with jumps form racing over a distance of more than one and a half miles on the Flat tomorrow include Cotillon, My Arch, La Estrella and Kayef in Haydock's opener; of these, Cotillon and Michael Scudamore's Kayef are of interest. The latter has a Sandown juvenile hurdle to his name and finished down the field in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. The colt doesn't look the easiest of rides but ran well to finish a close-up fourth at Ascot the last time, priced 33/1. Coral bet 16/1 for tomorrow's race.

In Catterick's 4.05 Micky Hammond's Heart Of  Dubai won over course and distance the last time but isn't guaranteed to reproduce that effort while mare Madamlily looks to have a tough enough task giving weight to all her rivals.

Newmarket's finale includes Veiled, Gifted Leader and Blue Spartan. Nicky Henderson has booked Kieren Fallon for Veiled. Gifted Leader has won a Stratford Class 3 hurdle; rated 130 over hurdles, the gelding goes off a mark of 77 here and would be of some interest for each-way punters if priced up at 16/1 (as in tonight's tissue). The grey Blue Spartan looks sure to appreciate this trip.

In a nutshell...

Those lucky enough to be at Newmarket yesterday saw something exceptional when Frankel demolished his field to win the 2011 2000 Guineas by six lengths; the crowd's applause commenced with two furlongs still to race. Earlier this afternoon Dettori rode 16/1 chance Blue Bunting to victory for the 'Boys in Blue' in the 1000 Guineas.

Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of the legalisation of UK betting shops. The spartan establishments those of us of a particular age used to frequent in the mid sixites bear no resemblance to our modern shops. Sound only commentaries, betting shop tax, it was something of a 'guilty pleasure'. Some complain the prevalence of Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) threaten to turn today's shops into glorified amusement arcades, yet in 2008 these machines became the first product to earn more for Ladbrokes than horse racing. Money talks, as they say.

All that contrasts markedly with the tales of chicanery and criminality I'm currently reading about in Nicholas Foulkes' excellent book 'Gentlemen and Blackguards: Gambling Mania and the Plot to Steal the Derby of 1844'; the paperback version is due to be released on May 26th.

The Punchestown Festival starts on Tuesday - latest declarations here. I've blogged selected races from this meeting in the past but due to commitments can't this year (probably something of a blessing!) Where possible, I'll post some selections...

A final footnote on the royal wedding... One of the troopers from the Household Cavalry was thrown from his mount as the wedding procession made its winding way from the Abbey back to Buckingham Palace. The thoroughbred sped past the newly-married couple and headed for Hyde Park barracks where it was caught; rumours that Her Majesty is considering supplementing the beast for this year's Derby are apparently wide of the mark.

Racing thoughts on a royal wedding day

On the day Prince William and Catherine Middleton were married, I'd hoped to get by without mentioning the blessed event but the victory of Nick Gifford's nine-year-old gelding Royal Wedding in this evening's opener at Fontwell put paid to that notion. Bookmakers have indicated they'll pay out millions on the result. The Sporting Life recorded some fair-sized bets on course too including £2500-£500, £2000-£500 (twice) and £1800-£400 (four times). Liam Treadwell sent the 4/1 chance to the front at the third; despite a mistake two out, Royal Wedding stayed on to take the Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chase by a comfortable 12 lengths. No doubt the race sponsors hope winning punters will splash out on lashings of their product to ensure the street parties continue to go with a swing...

The racing focus now moves to the Flat with the 203rd running of the 2,000 Guineas; the season's first Classic, contested over Newmarket's Rowley Mile, is due off at 3.10. On the form book Henry Cecil's unbeaten colt Frankel shouldn't be opposed; several commentators see this horse as the next big superstar so it's no surprise to see layers offer 4/7. In many ways the race doesn't make much appeal as a betting medium. Some observers weren't overly impressed with the colt's seasonal debut in the Greenham at Newbury while Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, makes his case for Roderic O'Connor. For what it's worth my each-way suggestion is Willie Haggas' Fury (18/1 with Coral) but, be warned, I don't follow the Flat so closely and am considering a different approach with the blog for this campaign.

A trend noted last year was that horses with jumps form ran well in a number of Flat races over a distance of two miles or more (with Mamlook winning the Chester Cup, Junior the Ascot Stakes, Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes and Overturn the Northumberland Plate). So, time permitting of course, I hope to focus on selected Flat races over a  distance of more than one and a half miles (and some summer jumping). With this in mind I'd noted Philip Hobbs' Comedy Act held a five-day entry in the 4.40 at Salisbury on Sunday but didn't appear in the final declarations. By the same yardstick, entries in Wednesday's Chester Cup that may be worth a second look include Dirar, Sentry Duty, Mamlook, Overturn, Admiral Barry, La Veccia Scuola, Swingkeel, Tyrrells Wood, Cotillion, Nemo Spirit and Royal Rationale.

And perchance, the last named brings me right back to where I started this post...       

Tricks and treats at Wetherby, Ascot and Newmarket

Eight go to post in tomorrow's Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby where the going is currently described as good. Last year's winner Deep Purple was allowed to go off at 9/2 on that occasion as punters weren't convinced Evan Williams' charge would stay this three miles one furlong but the gelding proved the doubters wrong by leading in the final strides to hold 2/1 favourite Tamarinbleu a head. This year the task looks much stiffer with Deep Purple having to concede four pounds and upwards to the rest of the field; nonetheless connections expect a decent run. Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop is likely to be popular but in my mind The Queen's gelding is best at around two miles six; he has won once over three miles (at Sandown) but I'm not convinced he really sees out a three mile trip, so over 25 furlongs here I expect something to beat him. The Tother One is another one who can win on his day but he has his quirks - I recall him throwing away The Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago by hanging right, swerving left and then hanging right after hitting the front two from home. Tom George's Nacarat has won most of his races on right-handed tracks but took the Skypoker.com Handicap Chase at Doncaster last year before going on to win the Racing Post Chase at Kempton; in that same race this year he was just pipped by Twiston-Davies' Razor Royale. The handler informs us his charge will appreciate the better ground but in the past the grey has had a tendency to throw in the odd poor leap and the fences take some jumping at Wetherby. Knockara Beau is one I like but he hasn't won over the trip and last season his fencing didn't always stand up to close scrutiny while previous winner Ollie Magern is surely past his best. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Calgary Bay (14/1 with Ladbrokes) who makes some appeal as an each-way proposition provided of course the eight start - the Taipan gelding had a decent enough warm-up at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. In an open-looking race, at the prices available, I'll support Nacarat, 5/1 with William Hill this evening.

Fair Along, who has been known to sulk in the past, did this blog a favour when winning the John Smith's Hurdle last year but this time around Duc De Regniere and Tidal Bay look tough opponents. The weights favour the former but I'll watch from the sidelines.

Some quick pointers for the Ascot card... Othermix catches the eye in the 2.25. Second in the Jewson at Cheltenham, this grey has his first run for Ian Williams and on official ratings has ten pounds in hand over likely favourite Pause And Clause. Nicky Henderson's Radium is feared - the trainer has taken four of the last six runnings. Course and distance winner Dunraven Storm (3.00) would be worth a second look if not marked up favourite while Tocca Ferro (4.15) was found to be full of mucus after finishing seventh in the Imperial Cup at Sandown in the spring. Trainer Emma Lavelle thinks the five-year-old gelding can win off his current mark of 126. If nothing else you should get a run for your money (with a price thrown in) from front-running course and distance winner King Edmund in the 4.50 while trainer Philip Hobbs said of Persian Snow (5.25) in a recent stable tour: 'This is one I really like...' The feature on the card, The United House Gold Cup (3.40) looks very difficult - top weight Carruthers will only take his chance if the rain arrives in time.

Finally for those who like to take their racing with a right royal touch thrown in, tomorrow's opening maiden fillies' stakes at Newmarket will fit the bill. Carousel, owned by The Prince Of Wales and The Duchess Of Cornwall, will take on nineteen opponents including Starlight Walk owned by Her Majesty The Queen. Commentators tell us Carousel has a much better chance than Starlight Walk but before the family arguments start it's worth remembering The Queen could still cut it later on in the afternoon when Barbers Shop takes his chance in the Charlie Hall Chase.

Racing briefs

The last running of the Champion Stakes at Newmarket brought an emotional win for Henry Cecil's Twice Over; thirty five minutes earlier the same trainer had taken the other Group One race on the card, the Dewhurst, with the precociously talented Frankel. Frankel is now a best-priced 5/4 to win next year's 2000 Guineas; both Coral and William Hill bet odds-on at 4/5!

Cheltenham's Saturday Showcase threw up a surprise or two, with the victory of 14/1 chance Clerk's Choice in the Sportingbet.com hurdle very impressive. Well-fancied pair Royal Mix and Barizan were over 21 lengths adrift so trainer Michael Banks clearly has something to go war with this winter. Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry jumped well to take the Kleinwort Benson Novices' Chase; the horse prefers decent ground and the plan appears to be to return for the Festival in March.

Quick ground at Kempton today saw a number of races cut up badly; Medermit (seventh in the Champion Hurdle), Cue Card (Cheltenham bumper winner), Menorah (winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle), Lidar and Captain Chris all missed potential engagements. The latter-named retains his novice status until the end of the month and could be rerouted to Chepstow on Saturday for the Persian War Novices' Hurdle. Trainer Philip Hobbs in a recent Racing Post stable tour article said of his charge, "I sincerely hope, and believe, he could turn out very, very good." Menorah is likely to go straight to the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham's Open meeting next month.

That talk of Kempton reminds me that Robert 'Choc' Thornton is currently employed as the face of racing at the south London track. I recently received a flyer from the course with a picture of the jock in racing silks and a rather sturdy-looking hedgetrimmer ready to shave at least an inch off the top of one of the steeplechase obstacles. Choc may be out of the saddle recovering from injury at the moment but he's certainly keeping himself busy as he's also writing a column for the Racing Post.

Finally a possible longshot I'll keep an eye out for this week is John Harris' Tom Wade - this one holds an entry in the opening juvenile hurdle at Ludlow on Thursday. Sent off at odds of 66/1 on his debut at the track a couple of weeks ago, the gelding was disputing second when unseating seven pound claimer Kyle James three out in a race won by Akula (who in turn had finished fifth behind one of the best juveniles seen so far this season, Architrave). Charlie Poste has been booked for the ride.

Cheltenham Showcase and Newmarket Champions

Nostalagia will be the order of the day with the last running of the Champion Stakes at Newmarket tomorrow; the race will be run at Ascot next year. On a top class card Frankel's clash with Dream Ahead in the Dewhurst will be one to savour; earlier this week Frankel was reported to have beaten his lead horse twenty five lengths on the gallops - naturally the layers have taken this into account and make Henry Cecil's colt an odds-on favourite (8/11) this evening. On ratings Dream Ahead is the one to beat - priced up at 3/1 in a six runner race, he will make some appeal for those brave enough to oppose but I'll watch from the sidelines. Thirty two runners face the starter in the Cesarewitch due off at 3.40. Horses that have been running over the sticks have a good record in this. If you leave out Caracciola (won at odds of 50/1 in 2008) the longest priced winner in the past decade was sent off at 16/1; two favourites have won in that time, Darley Sun and Detroit City, both sent off at 9/2. Nicky Henderson's Sentry Duty goes well after a break and has been talked up during the week but I feel is often better with plenty of cut underfoot. For those who must have a bet, My Arch (has form over hurdles) is the suggestion. Kieren Fallon rides Deauville Flyer in the race but the jock has a quiet word for Ollie Pears' charge in his column in the Weekender; Coral offer 14/1 this evening.

At Cheltenham I'm looking forward to the return of Barizan in the Sportingbet.com hurdle. This horse attempted to make all in the Triumph here in March and went down one and a quarter lengths to Soldatino. He was then beaten by Orsippus (40/1 that day) at Aintree before gaining his revenge over that opponent at Punchestown two weeks later. The top two have to give the rest of the field eight pounds which, on official ratings, makes Paul Nicholls' Royal Mix the top rated animal. I can't oppose Barizan; trainer Evan Williams has had four winners from 21 runners in the past fortnight, a strike rate of 19.05%. Wayne Hutchinson reports that Gilded Age is likely to come on for the run.

In the opener I've never been convinced by Aiteen Thirtythree after he finished a well-beaten third behind Reve De Sivola in the Persian War Novices' Hurdle on soft ground at Chepstow last year. In a recent stable tour article Nicholls described the Old Vic gelding as 'immature mentally' last term but is now 'coming along nicely'. Connections state they intend to go novice chasing after this run. Tim Vaughan describes the five-year-old Old Vic mare Pure Anticipation as 'a nice prospect for staying novice hurdles' while Acey is of interest on his first run for the Twiston-Davies team. Pure Anticipation, priced up at 8/1 in this evening's tissue, looks an each-way play against likely favourite Aiteen Thirtythree.

With regard to the novice chase at 3.50, Philip Hobbs' Balthazar King kept on gamely exactly one week ago to overturn the Nicholls hotpot Watamu Bay at Chepstow. Watamu Bay jumped markedly right on that occasion and was only beaten half a length in the end so you'd expect something to beat the Hobbs horse here. Paul Nicholls will think his entry, Picture This, is the horse to do just that. Quoting the champion trainer on his charge: "He is one I can't wait to send chasing this season." I've always thought Billy Magern the poor relation compared to Ollie [Magern] but the gelding looks progressive nonetheless while Ian Williams' Wayward Prince is another to consider. In my book the percentage call is Picture This who would be worth an interest if tonight's tissue price of 7/2 is freely available on the day. I haven't completely disregarded Hell's Bay. The gelding has his own ideas about the game but is not without ability. He was formerly with Paul Nicholls but the champion trainer had obviously had enough. This one looks the type that could benefit from moving to a smaller establishment and Colin Tizzard must have done something right as the horse trotted up at Newton Abbot on his first outing for connections. Tizzard isn't one to to take a charge to Cheltenham on the off-chance so I'd be tempted into a small each-way wager on Hell's Bay at tonight's tissue price of 16/1. [Incidentally, can't wait to see the yard's Cue Card this season. Had an entry in the 5.10 at Kempton on Sunday but that option hasn't been taken up.]

The concluding bumper has entries that catch my eye (and probably nobody else's) including Nicky Henderson's Lets Get Serious (will the layers offer 4/1? Probably not!) and Richard Johnson's mount Sir Benfro.

The Cambridgeshire (with some Sunday signals thrown in)

The Cambridgeshire tops a difficult-looking card at Newmarket tomorrow with 35 set to face the starter at 3.40 on ground described as soft. This evening John Gosden's Nationalism is the layers' favourite, as low as 7/2 with Boylesports while both Coral and Ladbrokes go 6/1. In the last ten years four horses have carried more than nine stones to victory; given the state of the ground and the competitive nature of this handicap, I've concentrated my efforts on those runners allocated less than nine stones. Elliptical, whose owners Keen As Mustard are unlikely to be put off by bad weather, was regarded unlucky when going down a head to Tartan Gigha over course and distance back in May. Gerard Butler's inmate has won on soft in the past although most of his recent form is on better ground but the booking of Christophe Soumillon certainly catches the eye; connections anticpiate a bold show. Both Emirates Dream and Absinthe have recent winning form in similar conditions; the latter could be anything but was reported to have scoped dirty after a piece of work two and a half weeks ago. Plenty of commentators have talked up the chances of Luca Cumani's Start Right (an each-way shout according to Fallon in the Weekender and he'll be pleased with a draw nearer the stands side in stall 9) and of John Gosden's supposed second string Taqleed. A J Martin, renowned for pulling off handicap coups over the sticks, travels over from Meath to saddle Pires, a brown gelding who counts Ruby Walsh and Johnny Murtagh amongst his previous pilots, while I had a second look at Smokey Oakey depsite the price as he'll appreciate the easy ground; he has been out of form of late and on balance looks unlikely to give part-owner Judi Dench a day to remember. In an impossible race, a chance is taken with Pires (each-way). It's worth noting that Skybet offer a quarter the odds six places while several layers pay on the fifth spot including bet365, totesport, Betfred, Victor Chandler, Blue Square and Stan James.

Sunday's highlight is the Arc (Longhamp 3.05) and Cavalryman has quickly caught my eye. The colt secured third in this race last year behind Sea The Stars when drawn wide in stall 19. He hasn't really hit form since his move from Andre Fabre but has a better draw on this occasion together with the assistance of Dettori in the plate; 20/1 is the price this evening.

From the Arc on a Sunday to a Huntingdon novice chase on a Sunday - the Emma and Megan Deanus Novices' Chase should prove useful for future reference. Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles Cootehill, Philip Hobbs Cockney Trucker while the J P McManus owned Rock Noir makes his chasing debut on a course where the fences are stiff enough. At the same meeting novice Songe looks quite highly tried in the handicap chase at 3.30 while Kahfre (4.05) won well at Plumpton the last time.

Finally another Sunday novice chase to take in - this time at Uttoxeter. Only six go in the Musicmagpie.co.uk Novices' Chase at 3.20 but Darstardly Dick, Wessex King and Shadow Dancer all look interesting contenders.

In brief

At Newmarket's Guineas meeting the layers were happy enough with a 33/1 winner in the colts' Classic (although I note the return was only £12.80 on the Tote) but the stewards' decision to reverse placings in the fillies' equivalent is thought to have cost the industry £5 million.

Having said that, bookmakers can't be doing too badly - look what they've been spending our money on. William Hill has sponsored the Monster Raving Loony Party during this election while Paddy Power has paid £10,000 for a new confessional box at a Catholic church in Newmarket.

Equiano's all-the-way win in the Palace House Stakes on Saturday was impressive. Channel 4's Emma Spencer interviewed winning jockey Michael Hills on the walk back to the winner's enclosure, while John Francome observed the entire looked 'ready run in the next'. With the bay still taking a strong hold, the microphone picked up Michael remarking to Emma, 'He'll be the first man to run away from you!'

Last week's Racing For Change initiative, offering racegoers free admission to several courses, appears to have been a resounding success but the trial of decimal odds at Ascot on Wednesday was branded a failure by several layers who reported a big drop in turnover and, as we all know, for bookmakers turnover is everything.

Finally, a National Hunt footnote to finish on; best wishes go to Robert and Sally Alner who have announced they intend to retire from training this summer. The yard won the 1998 Cheltenham Gold Cup with Cool Dawn (returned at odds of 25/1) while Sir Rembrandt was a particular favourite of mine.

1000 Guineas 2010

Following Mafki's shock win in the 2000 Guineas, I won't be getting involved in the fillies' Classic tomorrow. Eighteen have been declared with Criquette Head-Maarek's Special Duty currently heading the market at 4/1. Several have predicted the second leg of a French double but the filly's handler states:' We are not sure she will get the mile.' Luca Cumani's Seta has strong claims but Fallon's mount wouldn't want the ground too quick; the weather forecast suggests there will be rain in the area before the off. Richard Hills, guest on Channel 4's The Morning Line earlier today, appeared quite keen on the chance of his mount Rumoush from Marcus Tregoning's stable - that point is already factored into the 6/1 quoted by several layers. I have plenty of respect for Music Show who won the Nell Gwyn well under Fallon but the jockey has opted for Seta and Mick Channon's yard isn't flying at present. Over the past decade the market hasn't been the most reliable guide to this; granted, two favourites have obliged in that time but seven of the other eight winners have been returned with double-digit starting prices, last year's winner Ghanaati being the biggest at 20/1. A race to watch with the future in mind...

2000 Guineas 2010

Before we get down to business, a word to the wise. As anyone who has lost money on my National Hunt selections will tell you, the Flat picks are worse...

Nineteen go to post at Newmarket tomorrow for the 202nd running of the 2000 Guineas. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten star St Nicholas Abbey is a hot favourite on the back of his effortless win in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October. That day he beat Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir three and three quarter lengths and two and a half lengths on ground described as good to soft. Several commentators think he's the proverbial good thing and that view will have hardened on the back of positive stable reports about the horse's well-being and his ability to handle quick ground. He has been backed today and is now a best-priced 5/4 shot (Paddy Power), with several layers including Ladbrokes, Coral and totesport going even money. This reminds me somewhat of the confidence behind Nashwan just before he won this race in 1989, with everyone seemingly 'in the know' apart from my good self.

Having said all that, reasons for looking elsewhere include - there's no value in the favourite's price; being by Montjeu, the preliminaries may prove a distraction; George Washington (2006) is the only favourite to oblige since 1993; Kieren Fallon is on record saying he thinks the horse will struggle on quick ground and finally the yard was slow into its stride earlier this year (although stable form has improved recently).

John Dunlop's Elusive Pimpernel won the Craven over course and distance a little over a fortnight ago but can hit a flat spot in his races while Dick Turpin caused something of an upset when beating stablemate Canford Cliffs in the Greenham. Since then the latter-named has been the subject of a glowing report from jockey Richard Hughes who has stated he intends to ride the colt with more restraint here. Ladbrokes offer 10/1 this evening which looks big as on official ratings Canford is the one they have to beat - will he stay though?

It's interesting to see owner Harry Findlay trying his luck at the Flat game with Inler while Ladbrokes' 40/1 about Hearts Of Fire is tempting especially as the colt has won over the distance and has been tipped up by Dick Hunter in the Weekender; in addition Pat Eddery's runners have a decent stirke rate so far this season.

I prefer a low draw in the Guineas and that's where the pace appears to be this year. I take Canford Cliffs to win and will have a small each-way interest in Hearts Of Fire. Note that race sponsor Stan James and Skybet go one quarter the odds four places and in addition I'm sure I've read Stan James is to pay out winning bets in guineas.

Something for the weekend...

At Newmarket tomorrow thirty four go to post for the Cambridgeshire; bookmakers bet 10/1 the field with Skybet paying each way six places. Picking the winner is well beyond my limited capabilties. In the last decade two favourites have obliged (Pipedreamer in 2007 and Blue Monday in 2005) but in 2004 Spanish Don was returned at 100/1. I won't have a bet but, if a gun were held to my head, I'd start by looking at horses carrying less than nine stones.

Course and distance winner Ghanaati returns to racing against her own sex in the Sun Chariot Stakes at three o'clock, having finished a well-beaten third behind Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex at Goodwood. She's been given time to get over that effort, has a favourite's chance and is the selection.

All eyes will be on Longchamp on Sunday when Sea The Stars attempts to win the Qatar Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe at 3.15 BST. Last year Rishi Persad told BBC viewers he would walk home if Zarkava won the race - Zarkava won but Rishi never kept his promise; I wonder if he'll be similarly rash this year. Eighteen go to post; at the time of writing Sea The Stars is 8/11 in places but generally a 4/6 shot. The Arc is often a rough race and the draw can be crucial - the favourite has been given stall six which I would imagine will please John Oxx. The handler went on record a couple of days ago saying he didn't want a low draw (Zarkava won from stall one last year, the first horse to do so since 1964). Similarly you don't want a really wide draw - Andre Fabre said previously he was running for second place with Cavalryman but the horse has been done no favours whatsoever with berth 19. Before the draw, Cavalryman, with Dettori riding, was decent enough value at 10/1 - he's now generally a 12/1 shot. Vision D'Etat is worth a second look and probably overpriced at 14/1 with Coral but as a four-year-old he's set to carry nine stone five; three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 15 runnings. Stacelita remains unbeaten even though she was beaten fair and square by Dar Re Mi the last time, being awarded the Prix Vermeille in the stewards' room on a technicality, much to the disgust of Dar Re Mi's owner Lord Lloyd Webber and his wife who was most indignant in the aftermath. I'm going to stick with an each-way interest in Cavalryman - the poor draw is a major concern - but, along with many I suspect, I hope to see Sea The Stars win the day.

For those who prefer a bit of fun on a Sunday, the tenth running of the annual Mascot Grand National takes place at Huntingdon racecourse over a distance of one furlong two hundred and twenty yards. Mascots caught wearing spikes are likely to be disqualified...

Ayr Gold Cup, Newbury and Newmarket

When the draw was made for the Ayr Gold Cup earlier in the week, those first out of the hat went for the high stall numbers in the belief that was where the advantage lay; the first seven home in today's Bronze Cup all came from single figure berths. Twenty seven are set to go to post for tomorrow's renewal of the Gold Cup over a trip of six furlongs. The race, as always, is ultra-competitive and has something of the look of a bookmakers' benefit about it. Those who can wait will have a further clue to any draw advantage as the Silver Cup is due off at 2.05. Given the result of today's Bronze Cup I've decided to opt for a low-drawn horse. Dandy Nicholls, who has won this race five times in the last nine years, saddles likely favourite Evens And Odds (drawn 3) - in a race of this nature his price is unlikely to offer much value. I'll have a small each-way investment on Jim Goldie's course and distance winner Hogmaneigh (drawn 2). There appears plenty of speed nearby, the horse should run his race with the stable in reasonable form (6 wins from 37 runs in the past fortnight) and Coral stand out this evening by offering 22/1 - most firms go 18s.

In the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury Radiohead is the one they all have to beat but the World Trophy at 3.25 looks far more difficult to solve. On official ratings J J The Jet Plane should win with something to spare but he disappointed somewhat in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and has since moved to Richard Hannon's yard; I won't get involved.

For some unfathomable reason the two and a quarter mile Cesarewitch Trial (3.20 Newmarket) has caught my imagination. Several of these like to race from the front including Ragamuffin Man, Saga de Tercey and Aajel - if they take each other on early, the race could be set up for a hold-up horse. The first-named was beaten fair and square by the second-named last time out and should confirm the form. The Weekender quotes Saga de Tercey's trainer Alan Swinbank after that victory - "He runs like a good horse and could be our next really good one." He is likely to start favourite but I haven't totally ruled out the top-weighted grey Aajel who won a Class 3 at Yarmouth last time easily, his first run since September 2007. I'll chance Aajel as he's likely to offer better value and Marcus Tregonig's stable boasts an impressive 31% strike rate over the past fortnight (6 wins from 19 runs).

Finally, for those who like to keep a tab on these sort of things, Tom Dascombe sends out his first runner from his Michael Owen / Andrew Black backed stable; top weight Emerald Rock goes in the 9.20 at Wolverhampton.