Cold comfort

As a belated Father's Day present, a few weeks ago I was given tickets to tomorrow's Classic Chase meeting at Warwick; unfortunately that particular avenue of enjoyment has been scuppered by the cold weather -  along with the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle Day meeting at Kempton and the William Hill Medieval Raceday at Wetherby.

The feature from the Wetherby card, the Towton Novices' Chase, has been expeditiously transferred to the replacement meeting at Ffos Las which still has to pass an inspection tomorrow morning. 

The Met Office reports overnight temperatures at the Welsh track will remain above freezing while an update on Turftrax indicates the course was 'raceable' at 11.30 this morning.

Nonetheless, such is my disappointment at the abandonment of the Warwick fixture, I can barely summon the strength required to open a form book, never mind identify an each-way wager that makes any appeal.

Rosscahill and One Big Bang dominate the market for the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle (2.58). 

The former looked beaten after the last last time but stayed on powerfully to deny Ben Solo and tries this new trip on his first run in a handicap; the latter, second behind Shoot First at Haydock on his penultimate start, looked held on 127 at Cheltenham - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Soft ground at Ffos Las saps like nowhere else - Rosscahill, Mahland, Up For Parol, Stolen Silver, Balkardy, and Classic Concorde have all previously won at the track.

Mel Rowley's team are in good form but the price about Mahland has disappeared.

Stolen Silver, rated 154 over fences, goes off 141 and held five day entries for the Lanzarote and the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This looks less competitive but the Sam Thomas trained grey jumped the Aintree hurdles as though they were fences nine weeks ago.

Up For Parol held the same five day entries as Stolen Silver, with the Lanzarote the probable target, Jamie Snowden's charge having finished sixth, third and thirteenth in the last three renewals of the Kempton showpiece.

On seasonal debut Up For Parol came home second, 18 lengths behind runaway winner Henri The Second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Sandown five weeks ago, with West To The Bridge a further 11 lengths adrift in fourth.

Classic Concorde finished ninth behind Val Dancer in the Welsh National last time but is rated six pounds higher over hurdles.

Madaket is reported to have schooled well over fences; Micheal Nolan reported the gelding 'stopped quickly' in a Chepstow handicap hurdle 15 days ago. 

Alan De Banks and Balkardy both race from out of the handicap. 

The former makes his handicap debut for a yard that hasn't sent out a winner for 61 days while the latter has struggled over the larger obstacles. Handler Evan Williams recently said of his charge [RP Weekender Straight from the Stable 26-30.12.24]:

"He's not very big and fences get in his way sometimes, but he's very genuine. He's a joy to have around the place and I hope he can carry on giving a good account of himself."

When I learnt of the replacement activity organised as a substitute for my Father's Day trip to the Warwick races, any enthusiasm I might have mustered for a Ffos Las fancy sapped straight out of my shoes - a walk around Kenilworth's Castle & Abbey Trail.

I'll keep my powder dry for another day. 

The rescheduled 2020 Welsh Grand National

Precautionary 8.00am inspections have been called for all three of tomorrow's meetings - at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincanton.

The rescheduled Welsh Grand National (3.10) is the highlight at Chepstow with 18 set to face the starter. 

It's easy to see why the layers have Secret Reprieve clear favourite, although 7/2 about this comparatively inexperienced sort in a race of this nature looks extremely short. 

Writing in the Weekender [06-10.01.21] Evan Williams says:

"I've long thought of him as the ideal sort for a Welsh National and my aim this season was to get him in the race at as near to ten stone as possible. He won the Welsh National trial by an impressive 12 lengths at Chepstow last month...

"I was unsure when it was rescheduled to this weekend if the conditions would remain the same [keeping their old handicap marks] but thankfully they do as he does look to be particularly well in at the weights [runs off 134 but new mark is 142]. I think he has a huge chance of winning the big one..."

In my original preview I decided to take an each-way interest in Secret Reprieve's stablemate Prime Venture and I'm going to stick with that selection. A bit of a quirky individual, he finished fourth last year (Truckers Lodge second, Yala Enki third, The Three Amigos fifth) and turns up this time in better form having broken his duck over fences at Sedgefield in November; the trainer reports that victory has really helped boost the gelding's confidence.

The form of those behind in the trial run over two miles seven and a half furlongs on December 5th is of interest; The Two Amigos chased home Secret Reprieve with Bobo Mac third and Captain Drake fifth.

The Two Amigos likes to race prominently and in last year's renewal was still chasing winner Potters Corner two out before eventually finishing fifth; I just wonder whether connections might try to tweak the tactics a tad this time.

As I indicated in the original preview I'd expect Bobo Mac to improve and the additional 13 days since the trial will help his cause.

Captain Drake wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but makes some appeal (to me, anyway) of those at bigger prices. Quoting Harry Fry in his Straight from the Stable feature (Weekender 23-27.12.20):

"He was in and out over fences last season, winning at Exeter before finishing runner-up [behind Truckers Lodge] in the Midlands National, but he had a couple of unseats in between.

"I was delighted when he won first time out this season when I ran him back over over hurdles at Uttoxeter. He did not travel or jump well at Cheltenham next time but he ran better at Chepstow...

"Hopefully that will have done his confidence some good as there were definitely signs of improvement. I am still keen to go for the Welsh National as the trip and ground will be fine." 

Vieux Lion Rouge is also eight pounds well in after winning the Becher Chase last time but regular pilot Tom Scudamore prefers Ramses De Teillee who finished second to Elegant Escape in the 2018 renewal. 

Prime Venture is the each-way suggestion, quoted at 12/1 with William Hill this evening who pay five places.

The closest I'm likely to get to Lanzarote in the next 18 months is the Lanzarote Hurdle (3.30 Kempton); if Chepstow were to fail its early morning inspection, I was considering taking a chance on the weather in Surrey. 

I thought The White Mouse had a small squeak in the race and I nearly fell into a trap. Some basic spadework confirmed a gnawing suspicion - I couldn't find a mare that had come home in front in over 30 years. Well cheesed off!

Racing returns

Jim Best's 5/1 shot Anak won the first jump race run for thirteen days when taking the opener at Kempton yesterday. Two and a half hours later Andy Turnell's Micheal Flips took a competitive-looking renewal of the Lanzarote with the minimum of fuss, having eight lengths to spare over 9/2 favourite Duc De Regniere at the line. This evening the winner is quoted a 20/1 shot with William Hill for the Totesport Trophy at Newbury on February 13th.

At Huntingdon I thought Prince Louis put in a reasonable performance finishing second to Celian in the aptly-named Totescoop6 Beats The Freeze Handicap Chase. This was his first run in eleven months and his first for the Charlie Mann yard; he jumped left throughout and will surely be seen to better effect on a left-handed track.

Retirement looked on the cards for Blazing Bailey if he didn't show some spark in the Beginners' Chase at Ffos Las earlier today. In the event he was beaten just a neck by Tony McCoy's mount The Sliotar - I presume the retirement plans are now on hold. McCoy went on to ride a treble at the course. Over the past couple of days the champion jockey has been linked with the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. Speaking on New Year's Eve, Denman's trainer Paul Nicholls told The Mirror '...I'm not going to announce anything until after the Aon.' This evening Paddy Power offer the following prices about Denman's jockey for the Gold Cup - 2/5 Tony McCoy, 4/1 Sam Thomas, 5/1 Ruby Walsh, 20/1 Christian Williams.

We think we've seen off the last of the white stuff and then the forecasters threaten us with the possibility of more snow to come in the week ahead. It's getting that desperate - if we're hit with another freeze, I'm going to consider investing in a 3D TV. Wednesday's Times informed us England's home Six Nations Rugby Internationals will be screened live in cinemas using the technology - fans will know what it feels like to be tackled by Jonny Wilkinson. I was just wondering if the BBC will be in a position to transmit this year's Grand National in 3D...?

Jumping comes back at Kempton

Tomorrow Kempton looks set to host the first jumps meeting since Plumpton on January 3rd, the highlight being the Lanzarote Hurdle (run over two miles five furlongs these days) at 2.45, while Huntingdon hold an inspection at 8.00 in the morning. The first question to ask after such a protracted break is how have the various trainers managed to cope with the wintry conditions. Paul Nicholls has managed to keep his string ticking over; at the start of the year, as in the past, he inoculated all his charges against equine flu - traditionally this is a quiet time for the stable. Nicky Henderson sent out three winners on Southwell's all-weather bumper card on Wednesday but in this week's Weekender Alan King, whose string were slower out of the blocks than usual in the autumn, concedes that the snow is likely to have set him back again.

With so many unknowns, I intend to play cautiously and will give the form a few days to settle down again. Thirteen go to post in the Lanzarote, with the in-from Nicky Henderson operation looking to hold a strong hand with Tasheba and Duc De Regniere. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty rides the former but it would be unwise to discount the Duc - Tanya Stevenson (@TheFemale) pointed out on Twitter earlier in the day that the horse has won all his three starts at the track; in addition claimer David Bass takes off a handy-looking seven pounds. In my book one who could have more to come is Aachen - I was prepared to consider an each-way dabble at around 12/1 but he's priced up at 8s this evening and has been off the track a while so I'll watch his progress but won't get involved.

The 12.55 sees the eagerly-awaited chasing debut of Nicky Henderson's Mad Max. Eighth behind Mikael D'Haguenet in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, Mad Max is a giant of a horse who should certainly benefit from jumping a fence. Having said that, he's had a couple of breathing operations since that run - I'm never keen on taking short odds about a horse who has had such an operation and returns to race on soft / heavy going. There's only five in the field and I know I'm going out on a limb but I think there's more to come from Nick Gifford's Dee Ee Williams - I'll consider opposing if tonight's tissue price of 5/1 is available on the day.

With an official rating of 144 Kennel Hill sets the standard in the novices' hurdle at 1.30 but it's interesting to see the Nicholls yard reoppose with The Minack who was beaten fifteen lengths by KH over three furlongs further in Tell Massini's race at Cheltenham. I tipped The Minack the last time; at the likely prices on offer I may give him another chance as he lost any hope with a howler three out. Trainer Nick Gifford had a good word for Ashleys Lad.

Another Twitter titbit from @TheFemale points out that in the finale only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years. The Weekender reports that Nick Gifford has kept his string going in the snow - provided the stable's runners have run respectably beforehand I'll consider taking a chance with Tullamore Dew.

Those looking for a slightly different approach after the cold spell may want to note the following trainers whose horses ran well enough on the all-weather at Southwell earlier in the week: N. J. Henderson, Mrs L. Wadham (included 33/1 winner), C. Mann, C. T. Pogson, J. Howard Johnson, G.L. Moore, D.E. Cantillon, I.Williams and N.T. Chance. Good luck!

Warwick and Kempton

Fourteen go to post for the totesport.com Classic Chase at Warwick tomorrow. The preview in the Weekender highlights the fact that since 1991, when Aquilifer carried eleven stones seven pounds, no horse has won this carrying more than eleven one. Of the lighter weighted runners, the two that stand out are Arnold Layne and High Chimes. Course and distance winner Arnold Layne has been in good form, likes to race from the front and has Tony McCoy on board. Evan Williams' High Chimes finished a good third behind Cloudy Lane in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock three weeks ago. I'd expect the horse to see the trip out on his first attempt over this marathon distance. Earlier in the week the one I really fancied was Kilbeggan Blade after his impressive victory at Sandown but he's allocated top weight here. I still expect a bold show and will consider an each way wager if the bookmakers are offering 10/1 or bigger. My feeling is that High Chimes' third behind Cloudy Lane reads better than Arnold Layne's form and his price offers better value, so High Chimes gets the vote.

There are only six runners in the Leamington Novices' Hurdle but it looks fascinating. Peter Bowen's Souffleur is the clear form choice but there may be a question as to where the pace in this race will come from. On official handicap ratings Hills Of Aran has the beating of Nenuphar Collonges. I shall keep an eye on Just A Thought, stepping up in trip here, who ran well on soft ground in some decent bumpers last year - will he try to nick it from the front?

In the opener at Kempton Zanir would have a chance of overturning likely favourite Red Flare while in the Lanzarote at 3.15 Panjo Bere looks unexposed and Rio de Janeiro is weighted to get closer to Nycteos. I give Paul Nicholls' Nycteos the vote.