Cheltenham November meeting 2022 - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Fifteen of the sixteen 48 hour declarations are set to face the starter for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham, Editeur Du Gite the non-runner) with the official going currently described as good.

The trends point to a chaser aged between six and nine with previous course form carrying 11-0 or less while a recent run is considered a definite bonus - Galahad Quest and Ga Law both fit the profile. 

However, as I explain below, I still haven't quite recovered from the events of 12 months ago. 

The Mouse Morris-trained French Dynamite heads the market; there's a strong suspicion he's ahead of his current handicap mark of 148.

Irish trained runners don't have a particularly strong record in this race - when Tranquil Sea won the 2009 renewal, Edward O'Grady's charge became the first Irish-trained winner for 29 years.

Ga Law picked up an injury in the 2021 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton and only returned to action three weeks ago at Aintree where he ran with credit to finish third behind Riders Onthe Storm. 

Described as a potential standard bearer for the yard in a recent Weekender Straight from the Stable article, Jamie Snowden's charge has never faced more than seven opponents in each of his six chase starts to date.

Stolen Silver hails from the in-form Sam Thomas yard (38% strike-rate in the past fortnight). The grey beat Simply The Betts and Coole Cody over the new course in April and as a result starts off a mark of 150. 

Paul Nicholls saddles five-year-old Il Ridoto. 

I was at Newbury this time last year when he won the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy by six and a half lengths, a precocious effort in the circumstances. 

When Nicholls sent out the five-year-old Caid Du Berlais to win this race in 2014 the gelding became the first five-year-old to win since Cyfor Malta in 1998.

Last year's renewal still holds painful personal memories.

Coole Cody, bidding to win the race for the second consecutive year, went into a clear lead from the third and, despite jumping right on occasions, was still at the head of affairs coming to the penultimate flight where Evan Williams' charge crashed out of contention. 

Midnight Shadow took up the running to claim the spoils with Galahad Quest fifth, Simply The Betts sixth and Deyrann Du Carjac eleventh.

As I wrote at the time, I'd had the winner pencilled in after his second behind Chatham Street Lad the previous December. However, at the very last minute I was ambushed by a bullish Alan King piece in the Weekender concerning Deyrann De Carjac on seasonal debut.

The handler reported his charge 'not badly treated off a mark of 137 judged on his best form'. Tempted by the 33/1 on offer, I jumped ship and backed the beast each-way; I'm sure I don't really need to relate what happened next.

Deyrann struggled to go the early pace and looked likely to be pulled up before staying on in the latter stages; he eventually finished eleventh but was somehow beaten less than ten lengths.

Four weeks later he finished fifth off 133 behind Coole Cody in the Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase over the new course.

In what was probably his best effort last season Deyrann finished fifth behind Vienna's Court in the New Year's Day Handicap Chase run over the new course (Simply The Betts second, Galahad Quest sixth, Coole Cody eleventh).  

Mr. King is certainly more circumspect this year: '...and it may be we're flying too high'. 

The horse is set to carry four pounds more than his long handicap weight on this occasion but this is offset by Harry Kimber's five pounds claim. 

I think Deyrann De Carjac is ahead of his current mark (126) - he's rated 132 over hurdles - but a similar case can be made for a few in this field. 

He appeared a little unlucky on seasonal debut to be caught in the shadow of the post at Wetherby a fortnight ago on ground softer than ideal. I'd like to think that he comes into the race in better form than last year and that the drying ground will also help eke out some further improvement.

This evening Alan King told the Racing Post:

"It was frustrating to see him caught close home at Wetherby but he's come out of the race fine and, as he will relish the prevailing good ground, we've decided to allow him to take his chance." 

In a race that always has plenty of pace, I'd want to see him hold a position in the early stages.

Deyrann Du Carjac is the each-way suggestion, currently priced 16/1 with Paddy Power who are paying one fifth the odds five places.

Cheltenham November meeting 2020 - an outsider in the Greatwood

I haven't spent a lot of time on the form but I like an outsider in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Cheltenham 3.00). 

There are seventeen left in at he moment (Sebastopol a non-runner) but with the going officially described as soft there may be further withdrawals in due course.

Of those at the top of the market Tegerek won over course and distance 23 days ago and Kevin Brogan can claim seven while Thyme White looked good winning at Chepstow but the handicapper has had his say and raised Paul Nicholls' charge 11 pounds.

Thyme White's stablemate Sir Psycho was well beaten behind Tea Clipper in the Silver Trophy at that same Chepstow meeting; he didn't appear to stay the extended trip there so this step back should suit as should the ground. His fifth in the Triumph behind Burning Victory is noteworthy but Goshen's fall at the last when well clear casts some doubt about the value of the form - personally I'm ambivalent but Alistair Jones has carped it in no uncertain terms in the Weekender. I was particularly impressed with Sir Psycho's slick hurdling at Haydock last February but jockey bookings would suggest Thyme White is the stable's first string.

Last year's winner Harambe is now rated six pounds higher while the David Pipe trained Thinking could be anything - a first-time tongue tie following a wind operation is off-putting on soft ground.

The outsiders on the shortlist are Pisgah Pike, Milkwood/Ballinsker, and Cormier.

Pisgah Pike looks overpriced at 33/1. In a recent stable tour handler Jamie Snowden hinted that his charge would have won a listed hurdle at Market Rasen in September if regular rider Gavin Sheehan had been in the plate and went on to say:

"I am sure there is a decent handicap in him and if he progresses as we hope then something like the Scottish Champion Hurdle next spring could be a target."

The worry is the ground has gone against him.

The form of Milkwood and Ballinsker is closely linked. Milkwood beat Ballinsker an easy four lengths on good to soft at Ffos Las at the beginning of October and returned there 17 days later racing off a mark nine pounds higher to finish fourth behind Sceau Royal in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. The booking of Brian Hughes for Ballinsker catches the eye and Evan Williams' charge re-opposes 10 pounds better off but of the pair I marginally prefer Milkwood.

Cormier should have no trouble with the going. Rated 69 on the Flat he goes off 136 tomorrow after a couple of facile victories at Uttoxeter and Fakenham (third that day Doukarov has since won a Taunton novices' handicap chase). Brian Ellison sent out Nietzsche to win the 2018 running; Danny McMenamin claims three but this is a deep race and recent yard form is a concern.

33/1 Pisgah Pike is tempting but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in Milkwood in the hope he'll act on the ground and the track.

Paddy Power are paying six places, Sky Bet seven. Milkwood is the each-way selection, 25/1 with Paddy Power at the time of writing.

Cheltenham November meeting 2020 - a Friday fancy

A quick post for the first day of the 2020 Open meeting at Cheltenham, pragmatically re-branded 'the November meeting', presumably because all the action takes place behind closed doors.

A key piece of form for the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (1.50) is Rouge Vif's victory in the Bentley Flying Spear Handicap Chase over course and distance three weeks ago. That day eyes were drawn to the performance of the winner - Harry Whittington's charge is scheduled to reappear in Sunday's Schloer Chase, one of the most eagerly awaited contests of the entire three days...

Rouge Vif finished seven and a half lengths clear of nearest pursuer Western Miller that day with Beat The Judge third, On The Slopes fifth and Ballywood sixth. 

Provided the rain stays away, Ballywood is of interest tomorrow. 

Alan King's charge briefly went second approaching the final flight last time before tiring up the hill. In this week's Weekender [11-15.11.20] the handler says:

"He's run well this season but had a good blow each time and may just have needed both outings so should be spot on this time. He could have a shout in a competitive race."

The handicapper has left Beat The Judge on a mark of 142, dropped On The Slopes one pound to 142 and dropped Ballywood two pounds to 142. In receipt of 10 pounds Beat The Judge beat Ballywood nine lengths at Fontwell in September; they race off level weights tomorrow. There wouldn't appear to be an awful lot between the trio but market prices don't reflect that.

Of the others, I'm not entirely convinced this is Magic Saint's optimum trip but Bryan Carver's five pound claim looks decidedly useful while Fanion D'Estruval created an impression when beating Sully D'Oc AA at Newbury this time last year but has just four chase starts to his name and is short enough in the market. Eamon An Cnoic enters calculations on his best form but wouldn't be guaranteed to put his best foot forward.

Priced up at 17/2 with both Betfair and BetVictor at the time of writing, Ballywood is the each-way suggestion.

BetVictor Gold Cup 2019

The first day of Cheltenham's Open meeting may have been lost to the wet weather but earlier this afternoon the track passed its inspection for Saturday's card. Racing goes ahead but, due to concerns about the ground in the area, the third last fence and the third last hurdle will be omitted.

The first race is scheduled for 12.05 with the feature BetVictor Gold Cup due off at 2.25.

Saint Calvados and Royal Vacation have been declared non-runners which leaves a field of eighteen; as a result of the withdrawal of Saint Calvados, the weights have gone up seven pounds with the Joseph O'Brien trained Us And Them now at the head of the handicap.

Twelve of the eighteen runners are set to carry more than 11-0 on ground currently described as soft, heavy in places.

At the time of writing Slate House heads the market with support evident for Siruh Du Lac.

The former won on heavy ground over course and distance last month after undergoing wind surgery in June while the latter has won six of his eight chase starts culminating in victory in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival in March (Spiritofthegames third, Eamon An Cnoic fourth, Splash Of Ginge seventeenth).

Regular pilot Lizzie Kelly claims a useful-looking three pounds on Siruh du Lac; she returns to race-riding having broken her right arm and injured her left shoulder in a heavy fall from Rococo River at Exeter five weeks ago.

Spiritofthegames is another who underwent wind surgery over the summer and boasts a fine record first time out while Count Meribel won the Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase over course and distance last year and came home two and a quarter lengths behind Lostintranslation on his seasonal reappearance a fortnight ago.

Guitar Pete, third in this race last year off a mark of 137, beat Happy Diva and Demi Sang (Splash Of Ginge sixth) at Wetherby last time out; he goes off a mark of 141 tomorrow.

Happy Diva is a consistent mare who will handle the ground and pilot Richard Patrick can claim three; she has been raised one pound for her effort behind Guitar Pete while Demi Sang has been dropped one pound and at 50/1 looks a big price on the back of that piece of form. I'm assuming the price would contract sharply if owner J P McManus thought there was some value on offer... The last mare to win this race was Lady Cricket in 2000.

On the back of his second to Waiting Patiently at Carlisle in 2017, Belami Des Pictons is a talented individual but he has clearly had his problems and looks high enough in the weights at the moment.

Since the first running of this race in 1960 (as the Mackeson Gold Cup) only two five-year-olds have come hone in front - Cyfor Malta in 1998 and Caid Du Berlais in 2014. The latter was trained by Paul Nicholls and the same trainer saddles five-year-old Magic Saint tomorrow. On balance I'm not convinced the gelding would be guaranteed to see out the trip on this sort of ground and that same reservation is held about the chance of Highway One O One.

Several commentators talk of this as a 'strong trends' race with just two winners priced over 12/1 in the past ten years; in the same timeframe the winner has come from the first three in the market on four occasions. The last favourite to oblige was Tranquil Sea in 2009.

Two are of interest at an each-way price: Springtown Lake and Eamon An Cnoic.

Fifith in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase at the Festival, Springtown Lake likes to race up with the pace and will appreciate underfoot conditions; the cobwebs were blown away behind Vinndication at Ascot a fortnight ago. At around 11/1 I can't help but feel a lot of the value has already been snaffled up.

Fifth in this last year, Eamon Na Cnoic hails from a yard that can boast a strong record in this race. He enters calculations on the back of his three and a half length fourth behind Siruh Du Lac at the Festival in March. On revised terms David Pipe's charge looks well in at the weights with both Siruh Du Lac and Spiritofthegames; he should certainly be competitive and will appreciate the slower ground.

Both BetVictor and Coral offer 16/1 one fifth the odds five places. Eamon Na Cnoic is the each-way suggestion.

BetVictor Gold Cup 2018

I'd never go so far as to class myself a royalist but I've always felt an area where Her Majesty The Queen acts as a shining example to all of her subjects is the manner in which she uses horse racing as a form of escape from the trials and tribulations encountered doing the day job.

That said, somehow I don't think we're going to see Theresa May turning up at Prestbury Park over the weekend.

The highlight on tomorrow's card is the BetVictor Gold Cup run on the old course over a trip of two and a half miles; twenty have been declared with the race due off at 2.25 - the going is described as good, good to soft in places.

Splash Of Ginge won last year's renewal off a mark of 134. Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge starts seven pounds higher this time and is now ten.

The last horse older than nine to come home in front was Clear Cut in 1975 and since the race's inception as the Mackeson Gold Cup in 1960 only two other horses in that age bracket have won - Fortria in 1962 and Charlie Worcester in 1967.

Market leaders Rather Be and Mister Whitaker fought out a ding-dong battle in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase at The Festival in March, the latter prevailing by a head. Nine pounds better off Rather Be might be expected to reverse the form but Mr Whitaker has a recent run under his belt while Rather Be makes his seasonal debut; they look closely matched.

Paul Kealy tips up Kalondra in the Weekender, arguing Neil Mulholland's inmate was in the process of running a huge race when coming to grief two out behind Sub Lieutenant at Galway in August. A previous winner at this track Kalondra could be up to ten pounds well in off his current mark and has been given time to recover from that fall.

Joint top-rated on Racing Post ratings, Baron Alco is a consistent front-runner who was beaten a head on his comeback at Chepstow last month. I've seen him put up here and there but prior to that Chepstow effort he had been on the sidelines for some 19 months and I'd just be worried he could 'bounce' here. At the time of writing stablemate Benatar is the shorter priced.

King's Socks boasts smart French form and has been on several lists of horses to follow for a while now. He hasn't quite lived up to the high expectations but has undergone a wind operation since last seen and races in a tongue-tie for the first time. Between 2000 and 2006 Martin Pipe, David's father, won six of the seven renewals of this race.

West Approach raced pretty keenly here last time out, eventually finishing third behind Relentless Dreamer over three miles. I suspect he'll benefit with that freshness out of the way and I like Dickie Johnson on a front-runner but I'm not convinced the step back in trip will suit.

With any potential selection for this race I like to see winning form at this track and only six match the required criteria: Kalondra, Mister Whitaker, Ballyandy, Frodon, Guitar Pete, Shantou Village and last year's winner Splash Of Ginge.

Guitar Pete was ninth in this last year and then won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup in December although Starchitect appeared to have the spoils in the bag that day before breaking down when seven lengths clear. Brian Hughes rides tomorrow; he could run well at odds of 33/1.

However the one I'm going to make a case for is top weight Frodon. Firstly, let me get the bad news out of the way. Paul Nicholls' runner has to give a minimum of nine pounds to his opponents and I admit it does look a pretty big ask.

In 2012 Al Ferof won for Nicholls off a rating of 159 carrying 11-8; in 2016 Taquin Du Seuil won off a rating of 156 carrying 11-11. The last horse to carry more than 11-11 to victory was Very Promising in 1986 (David Nicholson trained, Richard Dunwoody up).

That said, Frodon took the Old Roan Chase at Aintree (Javert second) last month. He starts three pounds higher tomorrow on 161 (six pounds higher if Bryony Frost's claim is taken into consideration) but afterwards connections indicated their charge wasn't 'hard fit' - I saw one estimate he was 80% ready.

So I'm hopeful there's some more to come on this his second run after a wind operation and he's joint top on Racing Post ratings. He doesn't boast the most consistent of profiles but the 17 length defeat of Shantou Village here in January reads well; the two appear closely matched on these revised terms.

I can't help but feel a little like Bingo Little in a P.G.Wodehouse scrape (PG's Tips does PG Wodehouse) and that invariably ends in disaster but, just look, the sponsors are paying one fifth the odds six places and Paddy Power one fifth the odds seven places!

Frodon is the each-way selection at 18/1 with Paddy Power.

BetVictor Gold Cup 2017

Richard Johnson riding at Newcastle on the first day of the Cheltenham Open meeting?

There was a tally of two winners from four rides for the champion jockey, courtesy of Jassas (7/2) and Mary Eleanor (13/8).

When Taquin Du Seuil pipped front-running Village Vic (Richard Johnson up) a neck in last year's running of the BetVictor Gold Cup, the gelding became the first nine-year-old to collect the spoils since Cyfor Malta in 2002.

In the intervening years Little Josh remains the only horse older than seven to have won.

And since Cyfor Malta carried 11-9 to that famous victory 15 years ago, only four others have come home in front with more than 11-0 on their back: Our Vic (11-7 in 2005); Exotic Dancer (11-2 in 2006); Al Ferof (11-8 in 2012); and Taquin Du Seuil last year with 11-11.

This race is known for its trends and traditionally the market has proved a reasonable guide to finding the winner - there has been only one winner priced bigger than 12/1 in the past ten years.

Nicky Henderson's decision to go to Ascot with Top Gamble has seen the weights rise five pounds with the result eleven of the runners are now set to carry more than 11-0.

This year's handicap looks atypical with a top-heavy feel to it and for that reason I'm not inclined to be too dogmatic about the 11-0 weight threshold.

The market has a slightly idiosyncratic look to it as well with the following horses quoted at around 10/1 or less: Kylemore Lough, Tully East, Le Prezien, Starchitect, Foxtail Hill, Ballyalton and Romain De Senam; past trends suggest the winner will come from this list of horses (with ten-year-old Ballyalton looking to become the first winner older than nine since Clear Cut in 1975).

All the other runners are priced 16/1 or bigger.

Of the fancied horses Foxtail Hill is eight years old and burdened with 11-5 but he's my idea of the winner following his all-the-way win over two miles here three weeks ago.

He has gone up seven pounds for that effort but the additional four and a half furlongs will suit and he won over this trip on the new course in January with Jamie Balgary in the plate; Jamie rides again tomorrow and claims three so the weight carried falls to 11-2.

Foxtail Hill races from the front and, provided he gets into a good rhythm early on, should run a respectable race (famous last words); at the time of writing at least two bookmakers (Betfair and Paddy Power) go 10/1 which offers the opportunity for an each-way wager for those interested.

Of the bigger priced runners Skybet's 20/1 about Aqua Dude catches the eye as they're paying a fifth the odds six places.

This one will need to show improvement on what he has achieved to date but at seven years of age and with 10-11 to carry Evan Williams' contender has the right profile; the trainer saddled Buywise to finish second in this event in 2015 and the same horse returned to finish third behind Taquin Du Seuil last year.

Aqua Dude (20/1 Skybet) is the each-way suggestion.

BetVictor Gold Cup 2016

Nineteen have been declared for tomorrow's BetVictor Gold Cup (2.25 Cheltenham) where the sponsors are paying a quarter the odds six places.

I've had a couple of close calls in this event in recent years with John's Spirit beaten a head by Caid Du Berlais in 2014 and last year Buywise finishing a fast-diminishing half length behind Annacotty after a number of trademark errors on the way round. Of course, as advertisements for financial products are always at pains to point out, past performance is no guide whatsoever to performance in the future.

Annacotty, Buywise and Art Mauresque (sixth) try again this year with both Annacotty and Art Mauresuque racing off a 12 pounds higher mark (159) while Buywise starts five pounds higher off 153; Annacotty bids to join a select band of just two horses that have won this event in consecutive seasons: Half Free in 1984 and 1985 and Bradbury Star in 1993 and 1994.

Of the trio Art Mauresque is possibly the most interesting - it was a fine effort for a five-year-old last year, beaten just seven lengths. Now aged six, we can reasonably expect some improvement from Paul Nicholls' charge but the handicapper has raised him nine pounds for a win at Chepstow five weeks ago where he just held Double Shuffle a head. That day he idled badly after going on three from home and I'd imagine Nick Scholfield will bide his time a little longer if the horse is in with a shout tomorrow. Quoting the handler:

"He is difficult to gauge as last season there was a point when you thought he had reached his peak, but he has won his last two starts. He is in really good nick and looks like he has improved again."

Art Mauresque is one of four from Ditcheat; Nicholls has won this twice in the past four years.

Frodon is short enough in the market for a race that has never been won by a four-year-old but he claims the age allowance and pilot Harry Cobden takes another three pounds off his back. Connections have stated that, mentally, the horse is tough and certainly doesn't ride like a four-year-old.

As De Mee's second behind More Of That at this meeting last year would suggest the former is particularly well in in receipt of fifteen pounds from that rival but I harbour doubts and a slight suspicion As De Mee prefers to race right-handed - his four wins to date have come at Sandown (twice), Leicester and Fontwell. Bouvreuil completes the quartet of Nicholls runners.

Jonjo O'Neill boasts a good record in the race having won it twice in the past decade with Exotic Dancer (2006) and Johns Spirit (2013); this year he saddles two high class course and distance winners in More Of That and Taquin Du Seuil. Of the former the handler says:

"AP (Tony McCoy) rode him last Monday morning and said he would come back for this fellow. That's the sort of feeling he gives you at home."

Colin Tizzard saddles two for his new owners Ann and Alan Potts; Tom O'Brien has chosen Sizing Granite.

Cyfor Malta gave a stand-out performance in the 2002 renewal, carrying 11-09 to victory at the ripe old age of nine. Since then Little Josh is the only horse older than seven to have won and just three have carried over 11-0 to victory - Our Vic (11-07 in 2005), Exotic Dancer (11-02 in 2006) and Al Ferof (11-08 in 2012). For those who prefer a trends-based approach, those stats quickly knock out more than half the field.

This year's renewal is a particularly open affair. Only one favourite has obliged since 2006 but More Of That would be my idea of the winner; on the back of his fine effort in sixth last year, Art Mauresque (14/1 in places) is the each-way suggestion.

Cheltenham Open meeting 2014 - Saturday

Eighteen face the starter for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup at 2.30 - earlier today a low sun resulted in fences being omitted in the novice chase but a request to bring forward the off-time of Saturday's feature has been rejected by the BHA.

Last year Johns Spirit won carrying 10-2 racing off a mark of 139; tomorrow, together with Oscar Whisky, he carries 11-12 and races off 156. Jonjo O'Neill's charge looked impressive when winning over course and distance last month but the stable has only recently emerged from a spell in the doldrums.

In the past decade no horse has carried more than 11-8 to victory; seven of those winners carried under 11-0.

Jamie Snowden's Present View heads the market, despite suffering a slight setback when returning with a cut after finishing a head second to Vicente in a hurdle race here last month.

The gelding won the Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival in March (Buywise fifth and Persian Snow sixth); Buywise, in receipt of three pounds, was beaten seven lengths that day but appeared to be making ground up the hill after a couple of indifferent jumps on the way round - this one has been well tipped up.

In an ultra-competitive renewal I'm going to stay loyal to Johns Spirit who has shown his liking for Cheltenham in the past. This evening Paddy Power offer 11/1 and pay a quarter the odds five places so Johns Spirit is the each-way selection.

Philip Hobbs is having a terrific season and saddled a treble earlier today with Bold Henry (14/1), Champagne West (7/2) and Balthazar King (4/7f).

In the novice chase at 1.15 I'll oppose the David Pipe trained Kings Palace with Sausalito Sunrise (11/4 Ladbrokes, Skybet, bet365).

Finally Kilronan High went into my notebook when beating a Nicky Henderson hotpot seven lengths at Towcester last May.

The mare sweated up badly before making all to win at Perth a couple of months back; at 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, bet365) she is worth a small each-way interest in a competitive-looking bumper.

Cheltenham Open meeting 2012 - Sunday

The going at Cheltenham today, originally described as soft, good to soft in places, was changed to soft, heavy in places after the Paddy Power Gold Cup in which only six of the 18 starters completed. Two big name horses from the Henderson yard, Sprinter Sacre and Darlan, have already been taken out of their intended engagements on Sunday on account of the ground while Ruby Walsh goes to Punchestown to ride Hurricane Fly in the Morgiana Hurdle.

The feature is the Racing Post Hurdle (2.50), formerly known as the Greatwood. Underfoot conditions will make this something of a lottery - I don't intend to play but for those who do last year's second, Olofi, would be worth a second look (12/1 Sky Bet) and Bothy, second in 2010, would have been if the yard were in better form. In the past decade five-year-olds have won five runnings but it takes a very good four-year-old to pull off the trick - Detroit City (2005) and Brampour (2011) are the two to have managed it since 2002.

At the time of writing connections intend to let Captain Conan take his chance in the opener and the market suggests he's the one to beat; the favourite has obliged on six occasions in the past ten years. The horse has the look of a chaser in the making but I wouldn't be tempted on this his first try over the larger obstacles - all his opponents have previous chase experience. In fact the four-year-old His Excellency finished down the field in the Galway Plate in August; this one beat Third Intention over course and distance last time but has shown temperament on occasions - some may take the view that quirk is factored into the price of 11/1 on offer with BetVictor.

The novice hurdle (3.25) should prove useful for future reference, as should the concluding bumper. I leave the last word on the last race to Mick Channon; I quote from The Times (Friday 16 November):

'Sgt Reckless would have won the bumper at Cheltenham on Sunday but he pulled a muscle in the week. I do think he's very good.'

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012

Tomorrow's highlight on the second day of the Open meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.35) in which 19 are set to face the starter with Tanks For That declared a non-runner. Paul Nicholls saddles three; Walsh rides Al Ferof while Poquelin stands his ground which means four at the foot of the handicap have to carry more than their long handicap weight - the booking of the in-form Aidan Coleman for Questions Answered catches the eye.

The Pipe yard has a phenomenal record in this race. Martin has won eight runnings while son David chalked up his first success last year with Great Endeavour - it's no surprise to see Grands Crus, the yard's entry this year, at the head the market. In the past decade six of the winners have come from the top three in the market and three of those were sent off favourite.

Hunt Ball is a remarkable beast. Last November the gelding won a Class 5 handicap chase at Folkestone off a mark of 68; four months later he landed the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a rating of 142. Owner Mr Anthony Knott has been bullish in the build-up to this and has already backed his charge to win next March's Cheltenham Gold Cup to take £1 million out of the ring.

Nicky Henderson fields an interesting trio. McCoy rides the J P McManus owned mare Nadiya De La Vega in preference to Quantitativeasing while Geraghty is aboard the five-year-old Triolo D'Alene; since the race's inception in 1960 only one five-year-old has come home in front - Cyfor Malta in 1998. At Haydock's festival preview evening last March the handler put Triolo up as his best chance for the meeting - in the event the chestnut gelding finished well beaten by Hunt Ball but I'm guessing connections still hold this one in high regard and the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances by going as low as 10/1 in places.

I've always found Alan King's Walkon difficult to catch right but the grey has a racing weight, goes well fresh and writing in the Weekender the trainer rates his charge '...the best chance I have ever had of adding this great autumn contest to our cv.'

To this observer this renewal looks more competitive than the market might initially sugggest.

One hesitates to admit to having read Clare Balding's My Animals and Other Family but as a result I happen to know that Clare's English tutor at Newnham College, Cambridge would not be pleased to see me use the phrase 'the thing is' but, although Grands Crus may be the percentage call, the thing is the horse doesn't represent value and I still have a picture in my mind of the grey appearing to be bullied out of it three from home in the RSA last March. I'll chance Hunt Ball to collect the spoils (15/2 Stan James) and take out an each-way saver on Nadiya De La Vega (16/1 Coral, William Hill).

Cheltenham Open meeting 2012 - Friday

Brief notes as I probably won't get involved tomorrow.

The two I'm looking forward to are Fingal Bay in the opener and Dodging Bullets in the novices' hurdle (2.25) -  it will be interesting to see how the 2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator fares in the latter race.

I'm not particularly keen on the Cross Country race but Balthazar King won over the course and distance at the Festival in March and acts well on good ground - in the past the going has tended to be quicker on the cross country track than on the racecourse proper. Of course, that's all obvious to the layers and they are likely to price up Philip Hobbs' charge accordingly...  

Cheltenham Open meeting 2011 - Sunday

Very quick thoughts for Sunday...

The opener should prove informative. Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Al Ferof makes his chasing debut with Ruby Walsh in the plate. Trainer Paul Nicholls should have a decent idea about this one's chance as the stable's Toubab was beaten threequarters of a length by Lancetto who looks to face a tough task giving weight to this field.

The Greatwood Hurdle (2.20) is the feature and has been won by some decent sorts in the past including Menorah, Khyber Kim, Sizing Europe, Detroit City and Rooster Booster. The winner has come from the top two in the market seven times in the past decade but in the same timeframe only one four-year-old has collected the spoils (Detroit City, 2006). I like Colin Tizzard's Third Intention but this stat is a negative for that one.as well as his Ascot conqueror of two weeks ago Brampour. A number reoppose from the Ascot race including Via Galilei (second), the much-touted filly A Media Luz (third) who needs to give herself a chance by settling better, Nearby (seventh), Kumbeshwar (eighth) and Topolski (last). Pateese is the market leader on the back of an impressive victory at Sandown the last time, although you could argue jock Matt Griffiths nicked it from the front with a bold break for home two out. Back in March Pateese was beaten just over two lengths by Via Galilei at Newbury; Josh Moore's five pounds claim means the pair look closely matched again. Via Galilei was my idea of a wager but the ground appears to have gone against Gary Moore's charge so I'll maintain a watching brief.

On official ratings Woolcombe Folly has plenty in hand over his rivals in the Shloer Chase  (1.45) but will be priced accordingly and I'll keep a close eye on African Broadway in the 3.30 for future reference.

Cheltenham Open meeting 2011 - Friday

The finale apart, tomorrow's opening card of the Open meeting is strangely uninspiring. Cue Card for me in the gloriously-named Steel Plate and Sections Novices' Chase which was won by Time For Rupert last year; David Pipe has said he would have ideally preferred the ground softer for Grand Crus who has come to hand quicker than expected but is reported likely to come on for the run.

Garde Champetre, with Nina Carberry in the plate, will be a warm order for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, having won over the course and distance on five previous occasions. J P McManus' gelding was beaten a neck in this last year and won the 2009 renewal from Heads Onthe Ground; the going on the cross country track is firm, good to firm in places.

There's a strong word for Jessica Harrington's Steps To Freedom in the novices' hurdle (2.55) but at the prices on offer I'm going to keep my powder dry.

Madcap each-way suggestion in the 3.30: Architrave (25/1 Paddy Power). I've read somewhere in the past couple of days this one has started to show some form at home of late - he sports a first time visor here. He went off the boil as last season progressed but later stomach ulcers were diagnosed. His sixth of 18 in Chepstow's Silver Trophy (beaten just over ten lengths) three weeks ago reads well enough and the ground should suit.

Somewhat later in the day than might have been expected, the BHA announced the much-touted amendments to the new whip rules. They come into operation with immediate effect and have been welcomed by the Professional Jockeys Association as well as by Open meeting sponsors Paddy Power.

A quick round-up

Three taking performances from the three days of Cheltenham's Open meeting...

Friday: Cue Card looks the real deal, rated 156 by Timeform. Ladbrokes quote 3/1 about Colin Tizzard's charge for the Supreme and 16/1 for the Champion.

Saturday: Sam Winner proved aptly-named, taking the juvenile hurdle in emphatic fashion, with some well-fancied types well-beaten behind. Now 7/1 favourite for the Triumph.

Sunday: Ghizao, the outsider in a field of five, jumped impeccably to take the novice chase; now 12/1 favourite for the Arkle.

A couple of incidents from last Wednesday had the commentators' tongues wagging. Conditional jockey Christopher Timmons seemed to have a handicap hurdle at Bangor in the bag on Jeanery (4/1) but he eased his mount down and mistook where the winning post was positioned with the result he was done on the line by 5/1 shot Monsieur. Over at Huntingdon Medermit was sent off 1/5 favourite for a novice chase but he refused at the sixth; jockey Wayne Hutchinson said the horse had been spooked by a fence attendant.

These days it's only on very rare occasions that I take my ageing burnt fingers into a betting shop but last Friday morning I'd had a bit of stinker with work so at dinner time I popped into the local Ladbrokes just as a beginners' chase from Newcastle was on screen. It was run-of-the-mill fare but the odds-on favourite crashed out at the fifth which left the race at the mercy of second favourite Lord Larsson; that one drew clear from the home turn to win as he liked. Richie McGrath had been hard at work on Mr Syntax trying to close down the leader but the gelding made a very bad mistake four out and the jock did well to keep the partnership intact. That's how I saw it but this elderly punter, who had just invaded my personal space, started to slate the rider, bemoaning the fact that he wasn't even trying on the second and denouncing the performance as 'an absolute disgrace'. On occasions such as this I find distraction a useful tool - 'What price was that winner?' I enquired. 'Dunno' came the reply. At which point I made a quick exit.

Now, there's race-riding and there's writing - I know nothing about the former and wouldn't claim to know very much about the latter. David Pipe's stable jockey Tom Scudamore knows an awful lot about race-riding but his column, which started up again in last Thursday's Times, isn't always the easiest of reads. Still, Tom concluded this week's effort with a telling piece of advice he once received: 'Some of the horses will disappoint, some break even and some exceed all expectations. As long as you meet somewhere in the middle you're doing OK.'

Cheltenham Open meeting 2010 - Sunday

A few notes on Sunday's card... The official going for Saturday's races was good to soft, good in places but it was noticeable that several finished very tired; the two handicap chases were both won by horses that made all from the front.

Sunday's feature is the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at 2.20 in which 18 are set to face the starter. Khyber Kim came of age to win this under a big weight last year and then went on to finish a fine second to Binocular in the Champion Hurdle last March. Philip Hobbs will be hoping his Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Menorah can prove to be just as good. Nicky Henderson's charge General Miller beat Menorah a head at level weights at Aintree in April, having the misfortune to fall at the first in the Supreme. On a strict interpretation of the form the Henderson horse should come out on top in receipt of five pounds but that Aintree performance from Menorah still looks very good - there isn't much between them. Olofi catches the eye towards the bottom of the handicap following a decent show at Chepstow but four-year-olds have a poor record in the race with just one win in the past decade while by contrast five-year-olds have won on six occasions.

The opener is interesting and should prove useful for future reference. Kilmurry won here last month (Ghizao 11 lengths second) while Captain Chris tries fences for the first time after finishing second to Silviniaco Conti in the Persian War at Chepstow. A feature of SC's performance that day was the speed at which he jumped his hurdles - Paul Nicholls had intended to send his charge novice chasing but that all changed with the benefit of hindsight and it's now the Hobbs team who have opted for the chasing route. Philip Hobbs has said of CC, 'I sincerely hope and believe he could turn out to be very, very good.' The gelding was reported to have made a noise after winning at Kempton in March and I see he wears a tongue tie for the first time tomorrow. On official ratings Radium is weighted to have the beating of Kilmurry but the one with the most experience over the larger obstacles is Loosen My Load trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead. By coincidence Kilmurry was formerly trained by De Bromhead - the Weekender reports that when both horses were in the same yard Loosen My Load was considered the better animal. A fascinating contest awaits.

I was prepared to consider Tataniano as a play against Forpadydeplasterer in the 1.45 provided, of course, the price was big enough - on official ratings Paul Nicholls' gelding has plenty to find at the weights. Unfortunately the layers have the two protagonists pretty evenly matched and as a result there's little value to be had. A note in the Weekender indicates Tataniano wouldn't want it too testing, so that's another plan scuppered; apparently owners The Stewart Family have the Tingle Creek at Sandown in their sights...

In the concluding bumper I shall keep a close eye on Milton Harris' gelding Rose Of The Moon. This one was described in a recent stable tour article as 'an exceptional prospect' and he showed plenty of fighting spirit to hold Emma Lavelle's well-regarded Koup De Kanon a neck at Uttoxeter last time; the stewards had a look afterwards but allowed the grey to keep the race.

Paddy Power Gold Cup day 2010

Twenty are set to go post in a competitive-looking renewal of tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (Rory Boy declared doubtful this evening), a race that throws up some strong statistical trends. Five favourites have won in the past ten years while the winner has come from the top three in the market on seven occasions; it's worth noting that eight of the last ten winners had won at Cheltenham previously and eight out of ten had also won over the distance of two and a half miles. In addition in the past decade five winners were aged seven and three aged six. Market leader Long Run is a precocious talent and according to David Pipe, trainer of second favourite Great Endeavour, a certainty. Long Run has plenty of weight to carry for one so young although the owner's son claims a handy five pounds - on balance 3/1 doesn't represent value and if things get tight at the business end, I'd be concerned a proper jock would gain the uppper hand, so I'm looking elsewhere. Great Endeavour is progressive and has a racing weight together with every chance although Tom Scudamore's column in Thursday's Times failed to mention this one by name; whatever happens here, the trainer tells us David Johnson's grey will have an entry for the Hennessy at the end of the month. Mad Max is a big horse with power to burn who travels up with the pace; several commentators fancy this one - 9/1 at William Hill may appeal to some betting each-way. In an open race, I'll side with Great Endeavour who looks to have the right profile.

In the opener I think Architrave is the best juvenile seen out so far this autumn but the layers tell us Nicky Henderson's French-bred gelding Titan De Sarti is the one to fear. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past decade with the winner coming from the first two in the betting on seven occasions. Two Kisses is a game filly who is likely to find one or two too good but on Racing Post adjusted ratings Zakeeta, another filly, is in with a shout and makes some appeal each-way at around 16/1. Architrave has to give weight to most of this field but I'm going to stick with him until he's beaten - Architrave gets the nod.

The 1.20 is trappy enough. Wayward Prince beat Colin Tizzard's Cannington Brook 11 lengths in a three mile novice hurdle at Aintree last April. The former has since collected a Class 3 novice chase at Huntingdon and is priced up favourite here while the latter is well regarded but didn't jump well in two tries over fences last autumn. Chicago Grey won here in October - Hell's Bay a remote fifth - and is respected but Tizzard will have a rough line through Hell's Bay (finished second behind the impressive Time For Rupert earlier today). I'll chance Cannington Brook's jumping (each-way) provided the layers offer 16/1 or more.

Finally, I've spent no time whatsoever on the 1.55 but I'd be interested in Razor Royale on the back of Twiston-Davies saying the gelding was the biggest threat in his yard to current Gold Cup holder Imperial Commander. This one won at this meeting last year although he had had a warm-up six weeks earlier; 12/1 is the price this evening.

Cheltenham Open meeting 2010 - Friday

Very quick thoughts on tomorrow's card...

Eleven are declared for the feature, the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase run over three miles seven furlongs. This evening the going on this course is reported as good to firm, good in places. J P McManus owns and Enda Bolger trains three of the runners - Garde Champetre, Heads Onthe Ground and Freneys Well. Those who believe in horses for courses are likely to be well-acquainted with Garde Champetre who has a great record round here and unsurprisingly has been chalked up a short-priced favourite; the Garde Royale gelding collected the spoils last year ahead of stablemate Heads Onthe Ground and Sizing Australia and is once again reunited with excellent female jockey Nina Carberry. At the weights the Venetia Williams trained Flintoff (owned by Paul Beck and Freddie Flintoff) is bang there with every chance but he's an enigmatic character who in the past has tended to show his best when there is plenty of cut in the ground. Connections expect a decent show from Joe Lively who tries these fences for the first time while Charlie Mann's Mr Big completed the Velka Pardubicka in the Czech Repulbic on his last start and could be overpriced at 33/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power) on ground that is likely to suit.

Whatever Joe Lively's fate in the Cross Country Chase, the Tizzards will be hoping exciting prospect Cue Card can do the business in the 1.50. I still have a soft spot for this horse even though I tipped him at 40/1 for the Cheltenham bumper but then forgot to have a wager myself! Unfortunately Cue Card won't be that price tomorrow and I expect Philip Hobbs' Dunraven Storm to be a lot closer to the winner than he was last March. Irish runner Ballyadam Brook is of interest as is Paul Nicholls' King Of The Knight - Noel Fehily deputises for the injured Ruby Walsh.

The concluding novice chase looks a cracker and should provide some pointers for the season ahead - Weird Al (Ian Williams) dead-heated with Little Josh (Nigel Twiston-Davies) in last year's running. Time For Rupert, second in the World Hurdle to Big Buck's, tries fencing for the first time, as does David Pipe's Mr Thriller and Nick Williams' Reve De Sivola. I'm considering an each-way investment in a couple of outsiders - the marvellously-named The Giant Bolster (16/1 with bet365 this evening) won the Fred Rimell Memorial Novices' Chase at Worcester just over three weeks ago but jumped right-handed at the final two flights and Hell's Bay, another from Colin Tizzard's yard. I put this one up at a price for the Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novices' Chase last month - he was bang there with two to jump but faded badly to finish fifth. Initially I thought that's another of my hopeless longshots down the pan but a few days later I saw a report in the Racing Post saying the gelding had lost a shoe. Formerly with Paul Nicholls, this one comes with plenty of caveats but he has ability and Colin Tizzard recently reported his charge was now 'as sweet as a nut'; apparently the handler has received several expression of interest from potential owners since the horse has come into the yard. Stan James offers 66/1 this evening - that has to be worth a small each-way interest.

Thoughts on Halloween

Quick notes from Wetherby yesterday... Deep Purple ran a fine race in the Charlie Hall - Evan Williams' charge was fairly eating up the ground at the finish, much as he did in the race last year. The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on December 9th is the next stop. Interviewed on Channel 4 by Derek 'Tommo' Thompson, owner Graham Wylie put up three to keep an eye out for - Tidal Bay (finished third behind Fair Along in the John Smith's Hurdle), Presenting Forever and On His Own; the last named has a five day entry in the 3.10 at Hexham on Friday. Coastley was going well enough for a 28/1 shot in Fair Along's race but put in a howler at the ninth flight that practically stopped him in his tracks. He was pulled up shortly afterwards but could be of interest in the future, a comment that also applies to Gary Moore's Bogside Theatre who ran well for a long way at the head of affairs before taking a crashing fall three from home - the obvious concern is the mare's confidence will have been affected. Calgary Bay, a big-looking beast, appeared to be travelling sweetly and set for a place at least as the principals came to the top of the final bend but the gelding found disappointingly little when asked a question. Perhaps Martin Todhunter's outsider That's Rhythm (finished fifth) will be worth a second look when dropped a little in class. Gilbarry went into many notebooks when taking the opening novice chase by beating 6/5 favourite Osric, the pair 30 lengths clear of Knockavilla in third.

This season Paul Nicholls has moved stables and now writes a column for Betfair. The Racing Post, not to be outdone, hit back by announcing on Saturday they had signed up Nicky Henderson. In his first piece for the trade paper the Lambourn trainer kept punters in the picture by indicating many of his string were two weeks away from where he wanted them to be.

Weird Al returned to the track at Carlisle earlier today; Ian Williams' charge got up on the line to dead -heat with Little Josh over a trip that is probably short of his best. I was surprised to see Cape Tribulation sent off favourite for this intermediate chase; the bay didn't jump all that well at Hexham the last time veering left on occasions - that trait was evident again. He lost his position from the eleventh and was soon pulled up.

With Cheltenham's Open meeting less than a fortnight away, a quick reminder that Cheltenham Racecourse station is currently closed due to a landslip south of Gotherington Halt. Repair work has started - the latest estimate I have is that services are unlikely to be restored before mid summer; further details on the Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway website.

Finally, as highlighted on The Morning Line, Donald McCain's Drill Sergeant (formerly with Mark Johnson on the Flat) is blessed with ability but comes with quirks. Holding a fifteen length advantage in a Haydock novice hurdle, the Rock Of Gibraltar gelding pulled himself up at the the exit to the stables, going from first to last in a matter of strides. McCoy worked the magic though and the 11/10 favourite still ran out the winner, beating Brother Bob a length. In a recent stable tour article Donald McCain had said, 'It is possible we will ride him more positively in the future over 2m...' My guess is connections will be reviewing that approach. Incidentally, the form appears to pay a compliment to Kilcrea Kim who beat Drill Sergeant over two and half miles at Bangor. That one has a five day entry in the 1.35 at Exeter on Tuesday.

Sunday best?

There's some interesting Sunday fare on offer tomorrow, something that can't be said all that often...

Master Minded makes his seasonal reappearance in Cheltenham's Connaught Chase at 1.45; the race probably represents Well Chief's best chance of overturning the current two mile champion chaser in receipt of ten pounds. Owner David Johnson issued a bullish statement a couple of weeks back saying he thought his horse might surprise a few observers this year. Tataniano, currently a 10/1 chance with most layers for the Arkle in March, will be a warm order to take the opener while the feature race on the card, the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, looks typically difficult with 19 set to face the starter. If you're brave enough to be considering a wager, it's worth noting that only one four-year-old has won in the last ten years, a big weight isn't necessarily a negative and the market is a reasonable guide more often than not - in the last decade the winner has come from the top two in the betting on seven occasions. As two near the top of the market (James De Vassy and Ronaldo Des Mottes) are both four-year-olds, it follows that Harry Tricker would be worth a look. Nick Williams has his team in fine form and Reve De Sivola brings the best form to the table in the Cleanevent Novices' Hurdle at 3.30. In the last ten years the winner has come from the top four in the market but it's worth noting that favourites have won only three renewals while second favourites have won four. Of Lidar, who runs in the concluding bumper, Alan King said in a recent Racing Post Stable Tour article, 'You could say he's been the apple of my eye ever since the first day he walked into the yard... He's done remarkably well over the summer...and his work has always been of the highest class.'

At Punchestown Sizing Europe (7/1 joint favourite with most firms for the Arkle) goes in the Craddockstown Novice Chase at 1.05 while Hurricane Fly, Solwhit and Muirhead lock horns in the 2.40.

Back this side of the Irish Sea, the going at Fontwell is described as heavy, waterlogged in places. If racing goes ahead the runners in the three and a half mile Southern National Handicap Chase (3.10) will need stamina in abundance. On the same card it's interesting connections have decided to go the novice chase route with Helium (12.50). L'eau Du Nil is unlikely to take his chance in the claimer (1.25) having finished third at Wetherby earlier today while former Philip Hobbs inmate Bureaucrat is well known as a top of the ground performer.

Cheltenham Open meeting 2009 - Friday

Some of this year's Open meeting looks like taking place on soft, perhaps heavy going, if the predicted rains arrive. That has tempered my enthusiasm a little for the first day - I feel cautious rather than confident.

Some Present, second behind Dunguib in the Festival bumper last March, is the suggestion for the Sharp Novices' Hurdle at 1.50. On his comeback run he was surprisingly beaten by Sweeps Hill at Punchestown but that was a small field and a tactical affair; he'll certainly handle the expected easier going. Paul Nicholls saddles the four-year-old Tito Bustilo who wears a tongue-tie for the first time; I'm always a little wary of horses wearing toungue-ties racing on testing ground. I like Twiston-Davies' Cootehill but the balance of his form appears to be on better ground.

Nicky Henderson is in good form at the moment and his French Opera will have plenty of supporters in the 2.25. Course and distance winner Tramantano beat Beggars Cap the last time at Aintree but we can expect Ferdy Murphy's horse to be a different proposition on this course - at the age of ten have we seen the best of the Twiston-Davies inmate? In an open-looking race I'll consider an each-way wager on the top-weight Song Of Songs. This one doesn't have too many miles on the clock and should be competitive - there may a slight question surrounding his jumping.

I won't get involved in the Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre has become something of a standing dish and is likely to be priced accordingly. On offical ratings the favourite will have plenty to do giving Silver Birch twelve pounds; having said that, he has had the benefit of a warm-up spin over hurdles three weeks ago.

In the finale I'm going to stick with Knockara Beau despite the top weight. His defeat of the well-regarded Killyglen at Carlisle the last time reads well - I hope this doesn't come too soon. Ashkazar appears to have two ways of running but is very good on his day; he beat nothing on his first try over fences. Aigle D'Or is described by his handler as 'an enigma' and doesn't appeal to me on his chasing debut. Whatever happens, this is an interesting race which should give us some pointers for the future.