The 2025 Welsh Grand National

A vintage renewal of the King George at Kempton earlier today, with The Jukebox Man (7/1), owned by Harry Redknapp, beating Banbridge (16/1) and Gaelic Warrior (9/4jf) a nose and a nose, and Jango Baie (9/4jf) half a length away in fourth.  

19 runners declared for tomorrow's Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow) run over three miles six and a half furlongs; the going on the chase course is currently described as good to soft and the drying ground won't suit a few in this field.

Sent off 6/1 favourite for last year's renewal, Jubilee Express finished second, one and a half lengths behind Val Dancer, with stablemate Iwilldoit third and fourth horse Monbeg Genius a further ten lengths in arrears.

Sam Thomas' charge raced off 126 that day, Dylan Johnson claiming three. He races off 130 tomorrow, having beaten Collectors Item two and a half lengths here in the Trial over three miles three weeks ago (Pats Fancy over 50 lengths behind in sixth). That represented a commendable effort by the runner-up on seasonal debut; pilot Kevin Brogan dropped his whip just after two out and meets the winner four pounds better off.

Git Maker, second behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin in the 2024 Kim Muir, finished third in the Scottish Grand National the following month. The gelding likes soft ground; this looks to have been the target after a prep race over the Lingfield hurdles six and a half weeks ago to blow away the cobwebs.   

Unbeaten in three starts last season Mr Vango returned as good as ever three weeks ago, pipped a short head by Twig in the Becher at Aintree (Monbeg Genius pulled up) conceding a stone to the winner. The handicapper has raised him another three pounds for that effort and he now races off a mark 20 pounds higher than when beating Collectors Item one and a half lengths in the 2024 London National at Sandown. 

Rock My Way, fifth in the Scottish Grand National in April, went into several notebooks when jumping like a stag and shooting clear from two out to win the Berkshire National at Ascot 11 lengths. After the race handler Joe Tizzard said:

"He's always been consistent but he's never done anything like that. It was a beautiful performance to watch and he actually put himself in the Grand National picture after that."  

Drying ground will not be a concern.

Haiti Couleurs won the National Hunt Challenge Cup at Cheltenham in March and followed that up by winning the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse the following month. Rebecca Curtis' charge was awash with sweat in the preliminaries that day and, once again, on his first try in Graded company, he was on edge before the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month where, caught on the back foot at the start, he failed to establish a rhythm and never jumped with much fluency, eventually being pulled up before four out.

Subsequently the trainer said:

"He came back from Haydock quite sore on his sacroiliac joint which we had medicated the Monday after, it seems to have really helped." 

He has form on better ground - in receipt of seven pounds, he beat Uncle Bert 15 lengths at Aintree just over a year ago. Now in receipt of 18 pounds, that opponent is certainly weighted to reverse the form but his ability to see out the trip has to be taken on trust. 

Keep an eye on Haiti Couleurs in the preliminaries. 

O'Connell, best on soft, won this year's London National at Sandown (Hung Jury second, Tanganyika a disappointment and pulled up before The Pond Fence); Gavin Sheehan's move up the inside rail approaching two out proved decisive. Danny McMenamin, in fine form lately, takes over tomorrow but I'm not certain this track, which can favour those that race prominently, will suit O'Connell who is often played late for a turn of foot.

Intense Raffles, winner of the 2024 Irish Grand National,  faces a stiff task off top weight. He ran well for a long way in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time but usually appreciates plenty of cut underfoot.

Collectors Item has some respectable efforts to his name including second in the 2024 London National behind Mr Vango - meets that rival 12 pounds better off - and beating Katate Dori in the Somerset National at Wincanton in January. He's three pounds 'well in' after that latest run behind Jubilee Express and won a novice hurdle at the track in 2022.

I thought Dom Of Mary a tad lucky to win at Newcastle last time. That day Ned Fox sent 2/1 favourite Zertakt into a clear lead between the final two flights but the gelding slowed markedly approaching the last, losing all momentum and allowing James Owen's charge to scoot away and win two and a quarter lengths. Dom Of Mary is one pound out of the handicap.

Incidentally Zertakt made amends at Cheltenham two weeks ago - handler Venetia Williams has the National Hunt Chase at the Festival in March as his target.

Nassalam won the 2023 renewal of this race 34 lengths on heavy ground off 145 - only five of the 19 to go to post completed. The handicapper duly clobbered Gary & Josh Moore's charge; back now to a mark of 145, he has been pulled up in five of his six starts since and underwent wind surgery last month.

Deafening Silence stayed on well enough when second behind Konfusion in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time (Konfusion won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby earlier today) but was some 15 lengths behind the winner. Trainer Dan Skelton is on record saying that the gelding wants soft ground and a gap between his races; this will be the first chase with more than eight runners he has contested.

Uncle Bert blew away his field over two and a half miles at Aintree earlier this month, recording his first chase win in four starts. Now rated 140, he's four pounds 'well in' here and in January won a Haydock hurdle over an extended three miles. He's a tough cookie and weighted to reverse placings with Haiti Couleurs on Aintree form from last year but he's not guaranteed to see out the marathon trip. 

Livin On Luco made all and stayed on dourly to hold Neo King a neck in the Southern National at Fontwell six weeks ago; last December he finished sixth at Cheltenham, some 69 lengths behind Haiti Couleurs. Another one racing from one pound out of the handicap.

Tanganyika failed to build on a promising seasonal return at Sandown last time while Hung Jury, one of two veterans in the field, had no answer to O'Connell's turn of foot when second in that same race; Hung Jury is another to race from out of the handicap. 

Back in 2023 Monbeg Genius won a couple of novice chases at this track. Fourth in last year's renewal off 144, he's two pounds better off here - a bad mistake four out put paid to any chance he might have held in the Becher on seasonal debut.

Where It All Began finished fourth in the 2024 Kim Muir, eighth behind Intense Raffles in the 2024 Irish Grand National but has shown no worthwhile form since, while Beaufort Scale - six pounds out of the handicap - remains a maiden over fences and is a reserve for tomorrow's Paddy Power Chase (3.00 Leopardstown).

Pat's Fancy, the other veteran, races from a mark nine pounds out of the handicap.

Of the principals, Rock My Way and Haiti Couleurs should not be inconvenienced by drying ground.

The vote goes to Collectors Item, with the O'Neill yard now in better form; I'm hoping he can build on that effort behind Jubilee Express last time.

Collectors Item is the each-way suggestion, 10/1 generally at the time of writing, with most layers paying five places. 

The 2024 Welsh Grand National

Season's greetings. 

Sixteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.

Market leader Monbeg Genius has three chase wins to his name - and two of those have come at Chepstow. 

He was beaten 12 lengths by the mare Fontaine Collonges at Haydock three weeks ago and meets that rival five pounds better off, allowing for the three pound claim Ned Fox makes on Venetia Williams' charge.

His third behind Corach Rambler off 140 in the 2023 Ultima reads very well but a mark of 144 here looks stiff. 

Stable jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr rides stablemate Iron Bridge who will be expected to come on for his seasonal debut when third behind Val Dancer at Carlisle (Your Own Story pulled up); the yard recorded a quick-fire double with Red Dirt Road and Fortunate Man at Aintree earlier today. 

Iron Bridge finished a remote second off 142 behind Nassalam last year so looks feasibly treated on 136; Mel Rowley's charge has been raised five pounds for that Carlisle victory.  

It's worth noting that in the past 20 years only five winners have managed to carry more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03, 2006); Synchronised (11-06, 2010); Native River (11-12, 2016); Elegant Escape (11-08, 2018); and Nassalam (11-03, 2023).

The mare Galia Des Liteaux was beaten threequarters of a length in the Classic Chase at Warwick last year before finishing eighth in the Aintree Grand National; trainer Dan Skelton indicated in a pre-season briefing that this race has been the target.

Sam Thomas saddles two, both making their seasonal debut - 2021 winner Iwilldoit and the seven-year-old Jubilee Express. The latter is much shorter in the market but has just four chase starts to his name.

Gordon Elliott saddles Where It All Began and Stuzzikini.

The former won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February before finishing fourth in the Kim Muir and then eighth in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse where he didn't jump particularly well. 

The market suggests this one, wearing first-time blinkers, is the pick of the pair.

After pulling up behind Bangers And Cash in a handicap chase at Exeter in November 2022, The Newest One was campaigned solely over hurdles until winning an amateur riders' chase at Cheltenham in October (Amateur and Atlanta Brave both pulled up). 

His fifth behind Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon at Cheltenham last time looks respectable and Twiston-Davies' charge won a novice hurdle by 19 lengths at this track last December. 

Evies Vladimir wouldn't be the safest of conveyances while Classic Concorde has a high hurdle rating but hasn't run in a chase since June 2023. 

Campaigned mostly on right-handed tracks, No Hubs No Hoobs won the Devon Stayers Handicap Chase at Exeter in April and finished 22 lengths behind Remastered on seasonal debut at Wincanton nine weeks ago. 

I tipped Amateur each-way at 66/1 for this last year; racing from the front and jumping slightly right, he went well for a long way but had nothing more to give and was pulled up before the first in the home straight. He has been pulled up on all three starts this season. 

Two each-way chances are on the radar.

Currently a 12/1 shot, Val Dancer has been backed in the run up to the race. After the win at Carlisle last time, trainer Mel Rowley said:

"Val Dancer did quite well last season and has really strengthened up and grown over the summer. He really wants cut in the ground and he could be a type for races like the Midlands Grand National."

Atlanta Brave's threequarters of a length second to Surrey Quest off a mark of 121 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase last December reads well (winner was subsequently beaten a nose by Macdermott in the Scottish Grand National). 

Kerry Lee's charge has yet to win a race over the larger obstacles but was highlighted by Keith Melrose, Racing Post betting editor, as a horse to follow this season (The Big Jump Off, Racing Post Monday 21st October).

Just four days later the gelding was pulled up three out at Cheltenham; next time he was fourth of five, beaten five lengths by Roccovango at Uttoxeter.

The yard was slow into its stride this term but has recorded two wins from nine runs in the past fortnight (22% win strike-rate).

There's a hint this may be a year too soon but the fact Kerry Lee's inmate won a maiden hurdle at this track in January 2023 is a positive and I note connections have opted to fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Generally a 14/1 shot, Ladbrokes and Coral stand out offering 18/1 at the time of writing. 

Atlanta Brave is the each-way suggestion, with both Ladbrokes and Coral paying five places.  

The 2023 Welsh Grand National

Festive greetings.

I found a copy of  'This Sporting Life - Gerry Cranham, Photographer' beneath our Christmas tree yesterday and was immediately transported back to those halcyon days of childhood; the result is I haven't spent much time on tomorrow's Welsh National form (2.50 Chepstow).

Twenty are set to face the starter with the bottom eight running from out of the handicap; the going is currently described as good to soft but strong winds and heavy rain are predicted throughout the day.

Fresh from victory in a dramatic renewal of the King George earlier this afternoon, Gavin Sheehan is aboard market leader Super Survivor. 

Jamie Snowden's charge carries a nice racing weight but has just four chase starts to his name. He was no match for stable companion Git Maker at Lingfield last time and prior to that finished behind Autonomous Cloud and Iron Bridge in a novice chase at Uttoxeter in March. 

Nassalam beat Wayfinder over an extended two miles seven furlongs in the trial race at the track 18 days ago. 

Top weight Iwilldoit did it in 2021 and bids to repeat the trick off a mark 13 pounds higher; Dylan Johnston claims seven. 

Since 1997 only four horses have carried more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03 in 2006); Synchronised (11-06 in 2010); Native River (11-12 in 2016); and Elegant Escape (11-08 in 2018).

The Big Breakaway was second in this race last year (Truckers Lodge fourth, The Galloping Bear a faller and Wayfinder pulled up) but Joe Tizzard's charge has failed to complete in three of his four subsequent starts; last time he was pulled up behind Chambard in the Becher.

Only The Bold will relish testing ground but it's difficult to glean much hope from his two runs over hurdles last month.

Truckers Lodge, winner of the London National at Sandown 18 days ago, has placed in three of the past four renewals of this race. 

Course winner Amateur finished third behind Truckers Lodge in the West Wales National at Ffos Las in April, beaten just over four lengths in receipt of three pounds on soft ground.

Tomorrow he receives a stone from that rival, although Freddie Gingell reduces that differential by five pounds.

The profile of John Flint's chaser has an inconsistent look to it and, ideally, he may prefer better ground but at 66/1 with Paddy Power I'm going to take the chance and have a small each-way interest.

Amateur is the each-way selection, 66/1 with Paddy Power paying six places.

The 2022 Coral Welsh Grand National

Nineteen have been declared for tomorrow's Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow) with the ground currently described as good to soft, good in places.

Heavy rain is forecast but at the time of writing it's questionable how much will fall before off time. 

Connections of leading fancy The Galloping Bear have indicated they won't run if the rain doesn't materialise - and I note a number of confirmed mudlarks are towards the top of the market.

The top weights in the past three years were rated 160 (Elegant Escape); 159 (Yala Enki); and 166 (Native River). 

The Big Dog, trained by Peter Fahey in Ireland, heads the weights tomorrow with a rating of 153.

Owners Damien and Colin Kelly had this race as a target last year but The Big Dog made a bad mistake at the ninth fence - jockey Jonathan Burke lost an iron - and the gelding was quickly pulled up; they try again tomorrow off a mark six pounds higher. 

Four weeks ago The Big Dog won the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan (Regina Dracones fell at the second) worth 59,000 euros. The majority of his races have been on soft or heavy ground.

The mare Quick Wave heads the market this evening; she finished 28 lengths behind Fortescue at Sandown in March but subsequent wind surgery certainly looks to have helped Venetia Williams' charge who dotted up in the London National and is only four pounds higher here.

Her stablemate Farinet won the track's Welsh Grand National Trail three and a half weeks ago but hasn't been declared; at present he holds an entry for a handicap chase at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. 

Ask Me Early likes cut in the ground but unfortunately didn't make the cut for last year's race. His third behind Le Milos at Bangor on seasonal debut reads well given the winner won the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next time out. 

Course winner The Big Breakaway was only just beaten by Fontaine Colonges at Haydock on seasonal debut (Musical Slave fifth, Truckers Lodge ninth). He ran a strange race that day with a couple of slow leaps in the early stages before making ground up the home straight.

Musical Slave certainly won't be inconvenienced if the rain stays away and his second behind Hewick in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April reads well. 

He lost two places in the closing stages behind Fontaine Collonges last time; he hasn't looked entirely trustworthy in the past but the fitting of cheekpieces has certainly brought about improvement.

Truckers Lodge was second in this race in 2019 behind Potters Corner and third last year in first-time blinkers off a mark of 150.  

He has to be of interest off 141 and Freddie Gingell can claim seven in a race run in memory of his mother. I note the blinkers are back on; in the past Truckers has shown his very best form on soft / heavy ground.

Fantastikas looked to have a hard race up front in the Becher Chase last time (Fortescue fourth) but Movethechains looks relatively unexposed and could be anything. That said, the Weekender informs me: 'No winner in more than three decades was making its seasonal reappearance'.

Rebecca Curtis saddles two course winners - Pats Fancy and Wayfinder - and both were disappointing last time.

The former was tailed off in a handicap hurdle and the latter pulled up behind Farinet in the trial race referenced above - Time To Get Up was another pulled up in that same trial race.

Wouldubewell isn't the biggest of mares. She appeared to tire four out when sent off 4/1 favourite for a race at Haydock  last month; Ben Jones rode that day and he's aboard The Galloping Bear tomorrow.

The Two Amigos has run well in this race in the past and ideally wants more cut underfoot while Cyclop has a few miles on the clock but has been in good form this term finishing third in both the Southern National at Fontwell and the Scottish Borders National at  Kelso in the past six weeks.

The booking of Harry Cobden for the Irish-trained mare Regina Dracones catches the eye. She looks feasibly handicapped off 128 but appeared to just run out of petrol behind Punitive over three miles five at Fairyhouse last time.     

Gats and Co and D'Jango both race from out of the handicap.

As I highlighted in my last post, I think the Henry Daly trained Fortescue has had this as a target. 

His third behind Royal Pagaille in the Peter Marsh at Haydock at the beginning of the year reads well and although he looks quite high in the weights now pilot Hugh Nugent, whose grandfather owned and bred the horse, can claim three.

He finished second on his only run at the track in a novice chase three years ago and, admittedly in receipt of weight, has twice beaten favourite Quick Wave - at Exeter (March 2020) and Sandown (March 2021).

Fortescue looked a tad taken off his feet in rear in the early stages of the Becher last time before staying on to claim fourth - I'm hoping the fitting of first-time cheekpieces will help him hold a better pitch in this race.

Fortescue is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 with Sky Bet who are paying one fifth the odds seven places. 

Christmas capers...

This year the Christmas cranberry sauce has been made using four tablespoonsful of 2015 late bottled vintage port - Graham's, of course - and now, well, I'm obliged to polish off the rest. 

That's no particular hardship, you understand, as I do enjoy the odd snifter at this time of year but, on sober reflection, I should point out it does very little to help with those tricky Christmas wagers.

Rain has certainly arrived - the local parade of shops resembled a scene from Blade Runner earlier today - and apparently 18mm of the wet stuff fell at Kempton where the going for the King George meeting is now described as soft.

Three of the four races to be televised from the track have just five declared and the King George nine.

From a betting perspective the small fields don't generate much interest although 16/1 about Royal Pagaille in the main event might look fair value should the going deteriorate further.

I've started work on the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow, Tuesday). 

The trends seem to point to a horse aged between six and eight years of age that has previous form at the track and is burdened with a light(ish) weight. 

Ask Me Early fits the bill but in terms of quality this year's race would struggle to compete with the majority of renewals over the past ten years. 

At the moment I'm considering Fortescue at a bigger price (20/1) as I believe connections have had this as a target. 

After a pipe opener in a Bangor novice hurdle in November, Henry Daly's charge raced in rear in the Becher Chase at Aintree three weeks ago and looked one of the first beaten; however, he made eye-catching late headway from three out to eventually finish fourth, beaten ten lengths.

Granted, he has his share of weight (11-6) but, if confirmed, regular pilot Hugh Nugent can claim three, and form last season behind Five Star Getaway and Royal Pagaille reads well.

I'll try to post a preview of this race after racing on Boxing Day. 

In the meantime, I think it's time for another glass...

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

The 2021 Coral Welsh Grand National

Merry Christmas.

This past week I've spent more time with the lateral flow test kit than the form book; still, I like to take an interest in the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow).

Twenty are set to face the starter; the going is currently described as soft.

Native River carried top weight to victory in 2016 and bids to repeat the trick tomorrow. Colin Tizzard's charge has to give 10 pounds to stablemate and 2018 winner Elegant Escape and a minimum of 16 pounds to everything else; several in the field will run from out of the handicap. .

Secret Reprieve was backed as though defeat was out of the question for last year's renewal; carrying 10-01 Evan Williams' charge never gave supporters a moment's worry, coming home three lengths ahead of The Two Amigos with Captain Drake fourth, Truckers Lodge seventh and Ramses De Teillee twelfth.

Secret Reprieve hasn't seen a racecourse since. The trainer admits that isn't an ideal set of circumstances but this evening the horse is clear market leader.

In 2019 Potters Corner came home in front, beating Truckers Lodge one and threequarters lengths (Elegant Escape sixth); Christian Williams' charge ran a fine trial earlier this month, beaten a nose in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Truckers Lodge finished a distant fifth behind Iwilldoit in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at this track at the beginning of the month - the prep race Secret Reprieve won in 2020. Second horse home, Colorado Doc, was beaten 24 lengths. Sam Thomas' charge warrants every respect. 

Connections fit first-time blinkers on Truckers Lodge; on jockey bookings the stable's main chance appears to be Highland Hunter. 

Highland Hunter beat Deise Aba a nose in the London National at Sandown and here is weighted to confirm that form.

Midnight Thunder won last year's Edinburgh National at Musselburgh and followed up with victory in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr; on seasonal reappearance he was a well beaten fourth in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby.

Peter Fahey trains The Big Dog over in Ireland; this race has been a long-term target. Rated 132 over hurdles, the handicapper over here has allocated him a mark of 147.

This race also looks to have been the plan for Discordantly who sports a first-time tongue tie and fell in last February's Punchestown Grand National Trial won by The Big Dog.

On only his second start for current connections Hill Sixteen ran some race in the Becher three weeks ago, beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess with Achille fifth, Kimberlite Candy seventh and Mac Tottie falling. Previously Mac Tottie won the Grand Sefton at Aintree but he wouldn't be guaranteed to stay this trip.

Hold That Taught looks the pick of Venetia Williams' two runners and Maddy Playle has made the case for Eva's Oskar in the Weekender but in a very competitive race I think Hill Sixteen looks unexposed while Captain Drake is overpriced at 40/1. 

Stablemate Ask Me Early was ante-post favourite for this race before taking a heavy fall on the schooling grounds. In a recent stable tour, Harry Fry said of Captain Drake:

"It always takes him a run or two to get into the swing of things and the plan is to go for the Welsh National again, having finished fourth last season. The problem we face is he's 8lb lower than 12 months ago, so it'll be touch and go as to if he gets in at the weights. He's a proper mudlark and I feel he could run a big race if he gets in. I know he's not the easiest horse to catch right, but there's a big handicap in him."

He's eight pounds 'wrong' tomorrow but Lorcan Murtagh can claim three and connections have opted to try blinkers for the first time.

At the time of writing Paddy Power stand out offering 40/1 and pay six places.

Captain Drake is the each-way suggestion.

The rescheduled 2020 Welsh Grand National

Precautionary 8.00am inspections have been called for all three of tomorrow's meetings - at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincanton.

The rescheduled Welsh Grand National (3.10) is the highlight at Chepstow with 18 set to face the starter. 

It's easy to see why the layers have Secret Reprieve clear favourite, although 7/2 about this comparatively inexperienced sort in a race of this nature looks extremely short. 

Writing in the Weekender [06-10.01.21] Evan Williams says:

"I've long thought of him as the ideal sort for a Welsh National and my aim this season was to get him in the race at as near to ten stone as possible. He won the Welsh National trial by an impressive 12 lengths at Chepstow last month...

"I was unsure when it was rescheduled to this weekend if the conditions would remain the same [keeping their old handicap marks] but thankfully they do as he does look to be particularly well in at the weights [runs off 134 but new mark is 142]. I think he has a huge chance of winning the big one..."

In my original preview I decided to take an each-way interest in Secret Reprieve's stablemate Prime Venture and I'm going to stick with that selection. A bit of a quirky individual, he finished fourth last year (Truckers Lodge second, Yala Enki third, The Three Amigos fifth) and turns up this time in better form having broken his duck over fences at Sedgefield in November; the trainer reports that victory has really helped boost the gelding's confidence.

The form of those behind in the trial run over two miles seven and a half furlongs on December 5th is of interest; The Two Amigos chased home Secret Reprieve with Bobo Mac third and Captain Drake fifth.

The Two Amigos likes to race prominently and in last year's renewal was still chasing winner Potters Corner two out before eventually finishing fifth; I just wonder whether connections might try to tweak the tactics a tad this time.

As I indicated in the original preview I'd expect Bobo Mac to improve and the additional 13 days since the trial will help his cause.

Captain Drake wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but makes some appeal (to me, anyway) of those at bigger prices. Quoting Harry Fry in his Straight from the Stable feature (Weekender 23-27.12.20):

"He was in and out over fences last season, winning at Exeter before finishing runner-up [behind Truckers Lodge] in the Midlands National, but he had a couple of unseats in between.

"I was delighted when he won first time out this season when I ran him back over over hurdles at Uttoxeter. He did not travel or jump well at Cheltenham next time but he ran better at Chepstow...

"Hopefully that will have done his confidence some good as there were definitely signs of improvement. I am still keen to go for the Welsh National as the trip and ground will be fine." 

Vieux Lion Rouge is also eight pounds well in after winning the Becher Chase last time but regular pilot Tom Scudamore prefers Ramses De Teillee who finished second to Elegant Escape in the 2018 renewal. 

Prime Venture is the each-way suggestion, quoted at 12/1 with William Hill this evening who pay five places.

The closest I'm likely to get to Lanzarote in the next 18 months is the Lanzarote Hurdle (3.30 Kempton); if Chepstow were to fail its early morning inspection, I was considering taking a chance on the weather in Surrey. 

I thought The White Mouse had a small squeak in the race and I nearly fell into a trap. Some basic spadework confirmed a gnawing suspicion - I couldn't find a mare that had come home in front in over 30 years. Well cheesed off!

Welsh Grand National 2020

With Storm Bella forecast to bring strong winds and heavy showers to much of the country overnight, Chepstow's Welsh National card will do well to survive; the going is currently described as heavy and an inspection is scheduled to take place at 07.45 tomorrow morning.

The Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase is due off at 2.50 and this year is being run in memory of Kim Gingell, daughter of Colin Tizzard, who died in May after a short battle with cancer, aged 43.

The yard has clearly aimed Christmas In April at the race; should the meet go ahead and the horse come home in front, there won't be a dry eye in the house. 

Three weeks ago Secret Reprieve beat The Two Amigos 12 lengths in the Welsh National Trial (Bobo Mac third, Captain Drake fifth) run here over a trip of two miles seven and a half furlongs; the handicapper has since raised Evan Williams' charge four pounds. 

The layers seem to think that's a tad on the lenient side with the gelding generally priced up a 7/2 chance. Only four six-year-olds have won since the war: L'Aventure (2005); Halcon Genelardais (2006); Native River (2016); and Elegant Escape (2018).

For this I like something carrying less than 11-00 that has shown decent form at the track. Last year's selection The Two Amigos ran a fine race from the front but just seemed to run out of petrol after the last, eventually finishing fifth, six lengths behind Prime Venture in fourth.

Prime Venture looks to be Evan Williams' second string but the yard's horses are running well (36% strike rate over the past fortnight). Sent off the outsider of three on seasonal debut at Sedgefield, Prime Venture broke his duck, winning his first chase by 16 lengths; the handicapper has raised him five pounds.

I'd expect Bobo Mac to improve although I'm put off by a comment Tom Symonds made in the Weekender [16-20.12.20]: '...it could be something like the Eider would fit in better', the implication being the horse needed time between races. The handler also said: 'He's talented but he needs to be ridden like a ghost in the race.'

Springfield Fox has been well supported but doesn't look entirely straightforward while Dominateur didn't jump with any fluency behind Pym on his seasonal debut at Sandown. 

Vieux Lion Rouge blew away his opponents in the Becher Chase three weeks ago with stablemate Ramses De Teillee disappointing in seventh, beaten over 90 lengths. Ramses didn't jump well that day but his second in this race behind Elegant Escape in 2018 merits every respect.

Prime Venture is the each-way suggestion. Most layers paying five places quote 12/1 this evening; William Hill quote 11/1 and pay seven places. 

Welsh Grand National 2019

Earlier today I was approached  by a punter who suggested PG stood for Port Guzzler - the sheer temerity of it. The same punter then proceeded to ask me for an each-way suggestion for tomorrow's Welsh National (2.50 Chepstow).

My minimalist response is reproduced below - one for you to take or for you to leave.

Sky Bet pays six places and offers 9/1 about Prime Venture in first time cheekpieces; enthusiasm is tempered by the fact the horse has never won a race over fences.

The vote goes to The Two Amigos, placed in five of his six chase starts to date; Nicky Martin's charge is currently quoted an 18/1 chance with  Paddy Power / Betfair who pay one fifth the odds five places.

An opportunity spurned

Really, it can only be described as an opportunity spurned.

Earlier this week Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn went head-to-head live on national television, yet neither party leader possessed sufficient foresight to draw any parallel with the televised clash of the titans taking place at Ascot tomorrow.

Of course, comparing Altior v Cyrname with Johnson v Corbyn is the equivalent of contrasting the sublime with the ridiculous.

It's hardly surprising to hear that punters appear to have more appetite for the chasers (alcoholic and equine) than the politicians - Ascot has reported advance ticket sales up some 30% and, in any case, we all know the chasers are bound to deliver a far better spectacle, especially given that Johnson put up some three and a half stone overweight (best guess) while Corbyn struggled to see through his goggles.

I seem to recall years and years ago Margaret Thatcher telling anyone at the Newbury races who'd care to listen that everyone loves a winner. Well, that's all well and good, but what the good lady forgot to add was that when you lose, you lose alone. I should know - I've spent a fair amount of time in recent weeks talking to myself.

Altior bids for his twentieth consecutive victory tomorrow. Nicky Henderson's charge didn't look at the very top of his game last season and goes beyond two miles one for the first time. The way he jumped markedly left at this track in January must be a concern for supporters, as is his trainer's comment this week that the speed the horse has shown on the gallops at home makes him question whether his charge will stay this trip.

In case you hadn't guessed, I'm in the Cyrname camp, but you wouldn't consider a wager in this any more than you'd take 25/1 about a Labour majority.

Paul Nicholls' dual course and distance winner is officially rated one pound superior to his opponent but the stable win strike rate is currently just 10% which ranks a worry; 6/4 favourite Ecco folded tamely in the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham on Sunday (was it the shoes?) while Saint De Reve's stroll at Wincanton yesterday was the yard's first winner from 23 attempts.

'Always back the outsider of three!' is a pithy racing maxim that I first heard many years ago around the gaff tracks of the West Country during the height of the summer months.

Followers of this maxim will note that the Dan Skelton trained Solomon Grey is 100/1 with Skybet this evening; speaking from personal experience, that maxim may well be pithy indeed but it has yet to deliver the untold riches I so desperately crave.

Just three in the big race at Ascot (2.05) and only one more in the big race at Haydock (3.00),

Last year's winner Bristol De Mai seems to have been around forever but is still only eight years of age. On Racing Post ratings Frodon has just one pound to find with the favourite while Lostintranslation appears to have been well supported this evening. Another race to savour rather than bet on.

Thebannerkingrebel has enough in hand over his rivals in the opener at the Lancashire track. Ballinsker is on the radar; the gelding cost £90,000 and was three lengths to the good when odds-on shot Humble Hero came a cropper two from home at Ludlow the last day. This looks more challenging and there's no guarantee Evan Williams' charge will handle underfoot conditions.

In search of a bet I've stayed at Haydock and looked into the Betfair Best Odds on ITV Races Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at 2.25; the going is currently described as good to soft with further rain forecast. A few in the field wouldn't be guaranteed to stay.

Lisnagar Oscar beat Ask Ben, Stoney Mountain and Highland Hunter over course and distance in February before going on to finish fifth in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham (Ask Ben tenth, Stoney Mountain pulled up) and then finishing third behind Champ at Aintree.

Rebecca Curtis' charge certainly has the look of a chaser in the making but has suffered defeat twice over the larger obstacles and reverts to hurdling here; Ask Ben is weighted to finish much closer while there remains a slight question mark about the trip for Stoney Mountain.

Highland Hunter makes his seasonal debut having moved to Paul Nicholls' yard a couple of weeks ago.

Willie Mullins has brought previous distance winner Eight And Bob over from Ireland and that has the look of a recommendation in itself.

Breaking Waves finished fourth, Tedham sixth behind Duke Street over two miles five at Cheltenham four weeks ago; both sets of connections will hope the step up to three miles suits; Diomed Des Mottes and Echiquier finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Thyme Hill in the Persian War Novices' Hurdle and that form reads well.

Sirobbbie has won four at Uttoxeter over the summer and has gone from a mark of 95 to 129; his last win at the track shows he'll handle underfoot conditions.

All in all, it's a hugely competitive affair; I've picked out Acey Milan on the back of these comments from Anthony Honeyball in a pre-season stable tour:

"We weren't sure with a lot of horses who had the virus but he was definitely hit by it [last year]. He was a very good bumper horse [fourth behind Relegate in the 2018 Champion bumper at Cheltenham], and sometimes those horses do go missing, but they tend to come back and he could be very well handicapped off 126. We'll want to work our way back to that [bumper] level and, if we can, he could be a 140 or 150 horse. He'll get three miles and handles heavy ground."

With Rex Dingle claiming three and cheekpieces fitted for the first time (to the horse, not the jockey), Acey Milan is the each-way suggestion; several layers offer 14/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places.

Finally, I can't sign off without a quick word for Potters Corner, rated a 66/1 rag by the layers. This one fell two out when in with every chance in the Eider last February and then claimed the Midlands Grand National next time at odds of 20/1. The trip won't pose any problems tomorrow but the hurdles just might; part-owned by Welsh rugby international Jonathan Davies, the gelding also happens to hold an entry in the Welsh Grand National...

The rescheduled Coral Welsh Grand National 2017

Look, I know I'm getting older and that bit more forgetful - in the pub I am constantly being reminded to buy a round - but when I checked out tomorrow's Welsh Grand National preview in the Weekender, I was struck with a very distinct feeling of deja vu.

Ten days ago I tipped Wild West Wind for the Welsh National that was subsequently called off. The Weekender preview for that race discussed Wild West Wind's victory in the Welsh National Trial on December 9th and continued:

"The gap between that race and this one is just 18 days but Tom George's charge will be thereabouts if fully recovered."

Rather strangely, that's exactly what's printed in this week's Weekender...

Tom George's charge, together with Alfie Spinner (second) and Milansbar (third), has benefitted from an additional ten days to recover from those particular exertions. Unfortunately layers are no longer offering the 12/1 originally quoted; Wild West Wind is generally 8/1.

As in my original preview, given underfoot conditions (Chepstow heavy, 'brutal' to quote Evan Williams), I've concentrated my insubstantial efforts on runners who are weighted to carry less than 11-0 - eight of the last ten winners fall into this bracket - and who have also shown some form previously at the track.

Last year Native River became the first top-weight to come home in front since Carvill's Hill in 1991. Since the war there has been no thirteen-year-old winner and just one twelve-year-old - Gallery in 1960.

The shortlist comprises Raz De Maree, O'Faolains Boy, Buckhorn Timothy, Milansbar, Alfie Spinner, Firebird Flyer and Emperor's Choice.

Taking James Bowen's five pound claim into consideration, Raz De Maree (14/1) - second last year - tries on better terms this time and it's unlikely there's another Native River in the field. I saw him tipped up here and there over Christmas but he's looking a little long in the tooth now and I prefer to look elsewhere.

Alfie Spinner (25/1) is thirteen as well but his second in the Welsh National Trial reads well; on a strict interpretation of the form he has the beating of Wild West Wind. Prior to that run Alfie was pulled up in the Badger Ales at Wincanton behind Present Man (Final Nudge a head second).

The booking of Geraghty for O'Faolains Boy (25/1) catches the eye. This evening the Racing Post quotes handler Rebecca Curtis:

"We gave him a tie-forward operation coming into the winter, which seems to have really helped. He seems in really good form and is hopefully back to his old self."

O'Faolains Boy also holds an entry in the Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown (3.00).

When last seen over the larger obstacles in the 2016 Welsh National Trial, Buckhorn Timothy (25/1)  seemed to find the larger obstacles getting in the way. His two recent hurdle runs provide some grounds for optimism; Joe Tizzard has told the Racing Post:

"We've had this in mind for him all season... Like them all, he's got to handle the conditions but he has a good attitude and should be all right."

Earlier in the week Neil King issued a positive update about Milansbar (16/1).

I'm wary when the trainer tells us 'Milansbar has been quite hard work for Trevor [Whelan] on his last two starts...'; the first-time cheekpieces will need to work their magic but on Racing Post ratings he is the top one in the field.

2014 winner Emperor's Choice (20/1) may find this coming a little too quickly after winning on heavy at Haydock over three miles three and a half furlongs last Saturday while Firebird Flyer is one of three entries for Evan Williams.

Pobbles Bay looks the stable's best chance while On The Road is unexposed but not guaranteed to stay.

Firebird Flyer (40/1) finished second behind Mountainous in 2016 and then eighth last year but has generally been out of sorts (pulled up in the Midlands National and the Scottish National).

There was a faint flicker of hope on his comeback run over hurdles at Ffos Las in November; he races off a mark 11 pounds lower than last year, is the second best horse in the field on Racing Post ratings and jockey Conor Ring claims three pounds.

It's a wide open event.

On the back of Joe Tizzard's comments Buckhorn Timothy is the tentative each-way suggestion at 25/1, with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred amongst those paying one fifth the odds five places.

Welsh Grand National 2017

A very quick look at tomorrow's Welsh Grand National at Chepstow; the official going is currently heavy, soft in places, and the meeting is subject to a 7.30am precautionary inspection.

Eight of the last ten winners have carried 11-0 or less.

When Native River won last year's renewal (with Raz De Maree second, Houblon Des Obeaux third, Vicente sixth, Bishops Road tenth and Milansbar pulled up), he became the first horse to carry top weight to victory since Carvill's Hill in 1991.

Taking riders' allowances into consideration, I've concentrated on runners set to carry 11-0 or less with some sort of previous form at this track.

Raz De Maree has a couple of eye-catching warm-up runs to his name and it's unlikely there's another Native River in this field. I've seen Gavin Crowelll's charge tipped up here and there; he's generally a 20/1 shot but celebrates thirteen years of age on Monday.

Wild West Wind beat Milansbar two and threequarter lengths into third in the Welsh Grand National Trial on heavy ground here two and a half weeks ago. The winner has gone up four pounds for that; Milansbar ran in snatches that day and connections have decided to apply first-time cheekpieces.

Buckhorn Timothy is at the right end of the handicap. He didn't jump well when sent off co-favourite for the 2016 running of the Welsh Grand National Trial and after that flop wasn't seen again until winning a three and a quarter mile hurdle at Fontwell in October. He followed up with another win over the smaller obstacles at Wincanton which just makes me suspicious he may have lost confidence in the jumping department...

Of the four on the short-list, Wild West Wind is potentially the least exposed. Wild West Wind, generally a 12/1 shot, is the each-way suggestion.

Boxing Day blues

A little like Victor Meldrew I feel I must be getting old and miserable because the Boxing Day cards have just failed to inspire.

In years gone by, driven to distraction by the family Christmas, I've attended Newton Abbot and Towcester races on St Stephen's Day but unfortunately those fixtures no longer form part of the racing calendar.

The withdrawal of Coneygree has paved the way for Thistlecrack to take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. A fascinating race in prospect, agreed, but with just five runners it's one to savour rather than bet on. The meagre turnout for this showpiece event is likely to be seen as something of an embarrassment in certain quarters.

A similarly small field is assured for Kempton's Christmas Hurdle where Sam Twiston-Davies will want to try and make all aboard The New One. Richard Harper has declared Gray Wolf River, rated some 104 pounds lower than The New One, in the hope of collecting place prize money; some layers have quoted odds of 5,000/1.

Hennessy form should come in handy in the next few days with Blaklion and Henri Parry Morgan declared for Monday's Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby while Native River, Carole's Destrier, Vyta Du Roc and Theatre Guide all hold entries for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday.

On form Blaklion looks the one to beat at Wetherby but after his fifth in the Hennessy pilot Ryan Hatch reported his charge had 'cut out' up the long home straight and connections were likely to consider a breathing operation...

Previous Welsh National winners Mountainous and Emperor's Choice will probably try to repeat the trick on Tuesday but, provided the going doesn't dry out too much, I'll take an each-way interest in Firebird Flyer.

Second in last year's race, Evan Williams' charge went on to win the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March and had a reasonable prep on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month. He starts from a mark eight pounds higher this time.

Looking slightly further ahead, ITV commences its racing coverage at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Richard Hoiles is the new lead commentator; I know I'm going to miss Simon Holt.

Happy Christmas!

Welsh Grand National 2016

It could be touch-and-go whether tomorrow's card at Chepstow gets the all-clear.

The time of the Welsh National has been rescheduled to 1.45 so the race can be run on the best possible ground.

There are two former winners in the field - last year Emperor's Choice claimed the spoils off a mark of 131 but goes off 141 here.

Mountainous appears to have been given every chance starting off the same mark he won off in 2013. Kerry Lee's gelding ran an eye-catching trial last time when finishing fourth beaten seven lengths in the London National at Sandown.

I've scanned the declarations for a horse carrying less than 11-0 that will will handle heavy ground and stay the trip - Bob Ford fits the bill and his style of racing is suited to this course.

Granted, he has been pulled up a number of times but I'm hoping he can repeat his performance in the West Wales National last January...

Generally available at 16/1 Bob Ford is the each-way selection; most layers offer a quarter the odds four places.

A chance for the Challow

Rather spoilt for choice tomorrow with the Welsh National at Chepstow, the Lexus at Leopardstown and the Challow at Newbury.

The world and his wife have put up Well Refreshed for the Welsh National after his eye-catching trial in Sandown's London National three weeks ago. Allocated to carry just 10-2, and with Josh Moore able to claim a further three pounds, Gary Moore's gelding will certainly relish underfoot conditions but his jumping can be haphazard - I still recall the manner in which he practically ran through the final fence of Haydock's Grand National Trial on similar ground in February. I'm not tempted.

Gold cup winner Bobs Worth is on a retrieval mission in the Lexus after a below-par effort in the Betfair Chase last month. Connections don't sound overly confident and Henderson's horses are struggling at the moment - box office draw Sprinter Sacre was pulled up and diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton earlier today while Grandouet was turned over at odds of 1/2 in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase. Willie Mullins' Sir Des Champs blotted his copy book when falling last time but he's still my idea of the winner - Walsh rides Rubi Ball who could be anything.

Only six in the Challow but it's decidedly tricky. Likely favourite Oscar Rock has won a listed bumper at the track while Timesremembered failed to give seven pounds to Creepy the last day at Cheltenham. On a literal interpretation of that form Creepy has it to do to confirm the placings and the market prices on offer suggest bookmakers concur. To my mind Creepy has improvement to come but to date he has shown his best form on better ground so I'm going to stick with Emma Lavelle's Timesremembered  (7/2 generally) who is the best horse in the race on official ratings. Those same ratings also indicate that Kaki De La Pree is in there with a shout...

The Welsh Grand National, Clare Balding, Mr Little's Noisy Car and the Tolworth...

Originally Clare Balding was rostered to cover the Welsh National at Chepstow for the BBC so there's a certain irony in the fact that, due to mitigating circumstances, nine days on she fronts this year's renewal for her new employers at Channel 4.

Channel 4's brand new racing coverage didn't get off to the most auspicious of starts on new year's day. Cheltenham was called off so Balding gave us a whirlwind tour of Nicky Henderson's stable instead; a couple of races from Musselburgh were thrown in for the sheer hell of it while Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Graham Cunningham and Tanya Stevenson spent a sizeable chunk of the airtime available impersonating a job interview panel.

Their appearance brought to mind a previous occasion when one such panel enquired of me 'What was the last work of fiction you read and what do you remember most about it?' I replied 'Mr. Little's Noisy Car. The thing I remember most was Mr. Little finding a tiger in the boot of the car.' The kids were quite small at the time; I didn't get the job.

It's early days for Channel 4's new team and I don't want to appear too judgmental. Mrs Tips, never one to keep quiet for no reason whatsoever, tells me the jury is out...

18 have been declared for the Chepstow feature tomorrow but the picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that both Across The Bay and Alfie Spinner have also been declared for the 3.40 at Sandown. The perceived wisdom is Across The Bay runs at Chepstow while my Welsh National fancy, Alfie Spinner, is heading to Sandown. Gutted.

Teaforthree has an obvious chance with underfoot conditions sure to suit; this has been the target all season. He's tipped up everywhere - the layers appear to be taking the name literally as several offer no more than a rather miserly-looking 3/1. I share John Francome's view on Michel Le Bon - the horse just doesn't jump anywhere near well enough.

The last winner older than nine was Riverside Boy back in 1993, a stat that knocks out half the field. I've looked for something with course form that's aged under ten and with less than 11 stone to carry - Charlie Longsdon's Universal Soldier fits the bill. This one finished just over 13 lengths behind Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March and is now six pounds better off; the first-time blinkers are a cause for slight concern. I'll take a small each-way interest in Universal Soldier at 10/1.

The Tolworth at Sandown (2.25) looks most intriguing with layers offering 7/2 each of three this evening. Geraghty rides Royal Boy rather than course and distance winner Golden Hoof; the latter-named boasts the same official rating as Melodic Rendezvous (135) who had Royal Boy threequarters of a length behind at Cheltenham three weeks ago. That was Royal Boy's first run for nearly two years and connections will fancy their chance of turning the form around. Clive Cox's Poet, a winner of Group Three races on the Flat, jumped like an old-hand on his first try over hurdles at Newbury 17 days ago; an article in yesterday's Times indicated John Francome has done much of the work with this one with the Champion Hurdle the target if things go to plan here. Of the principals, I have to oppose both Poet (on account of age - eight) and Melodic Rendezvous (his handler was decidely downbeat about his charge's chance on heavy ground before the Cheltenham race.) Court Minstrel is not lightly dismissed and appeared a little unlucky in running when bumped and hampered after the last behind Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham - Henderson has a benchmark in  River Maigue, second that day and a winner since. Royal Boy gets the nod; whatever happens, the race will prove useful for future reference.

I won't play in the finale at Sandown. I suspect Team Tizzard are giving Hey Big Spender a runout before another crack at Warwick's Classic Chase (next weekend) while at the time of writing my former Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner is priced up favourite. Triolo D'Alene has had a breathing operation and could come on for his seasonal debut but to date hasn't proved he stays this trip. Fruity O'Rooney definitely does stay the trip and could well make a bold bid (seventh in Hennessy) but in the past has tended to jump out left when racing on right-handed tracks.

Welsh National 2011

As always, particularly competitive but Richard Lee's Le Beau Bai catches the eye at the right end of the handicap. He's not the biggest of individuals but the heavy going should prove right up his street. Third in the 2009 running off a mark of 148, he goes here off 127 having won over the course at the beginning of the month; the yard had a welcome winner with 13 year old Victory Gunner earlier today. Suggestion: Le Beau Bai each-way (10/1 Betfred).

Telling it as it is...

John McCririck just didn't appear in one of his better moods on Saturday's Morning Line.

At one juncture the pundit sought to make the point that Tony McCoy 'told it as it was' in his column in The Daily Telegraph in contrast to Richard Johnson, formerly of The Times but now writing for The Daily Mirror. Whereas McCoy voiced his fears over the weight Synchronised had been allocated in the Welsh National, by contrast Johnson in his column said all his booked rides looked to have a nice chance etc. - in effect McCririck was making the point that Johnson's comments didn't really add value. Fair enough, but when taken to task by John Francome, McCririck blustered on, insisting that it was champ McCoy who 'told it as it was'.

Just under six hours later, McCoy rode Synchronised (carrying eleven stones six pounds) to victory in the Chepstow showpiece.

Trying to tell it as it is - not an easy thing to pull off in the racing game. Horses, as we know all too well, they make fools of you. As for McCririck - will he survive The Morning Line re-brand scheduled to hit our screens at the end of the month?

Chepstow's Welsh National card

With Sandown's Tolworth fixture subject to a 7.30 inspection tomorrow morning, I've concentrated on Chepstow's Welsh National card.

Twenty have been declared for the feature which will be run over a distance just shy of three and three quarter miles on ground that is likely to be testing in the extreme. Over the past ten years only one horse has carried more than eleven stones to victory (Halcon Genelardais in 2006) and six of those ten winners have carried less than ten and a half stone. One favourite has obliged during the same time period, Silver Birch in 2004. Many think Synchronised is a good thing but I've been on the lookout for something carrying a racing weight at an each-way price. I'moncloudnine from Neil Mulholland's in-form yard fits the bill; however in a recent stable tour article the handler told us his charge is entered here as the owners are from the area but the bay gelding would prefer decent jumping ground - the plan appears to be the National next April. I'm undecided on which of Victor Dartnall's pair to go for - both would have a decent chance on their best form but both are prone to the odd jumping error here and there. Of the two Exmoor Ranger finished third behind Midnight Chase the last time but carries his share of weight here while Giles Cross ran well for a fair way before being pulled on his seasonal debut. In the week I saw a comment from the handler that indicated very soft / heavy ground was more likely to suit Giles Cross, so I'm going to take a small each-way interest in course winner Giles Cross.

The top two in the ante-post market for the Triumph Hurdle take each other on in the 1.10. On ratings Sam Winner is the one to beat and is priced accordingly. Alan King has indicated in the Weekender that Smad Place missed an engagement at Newbury last week after connections weren't 100% satisfied with the way their charge had scoped; nonetheless a big run is expected tomorow. In Thursday's Times Milton Harris admitted to 'aiming high' with Royal And Ancient but Marsh Warbler is a favourite of Brian Ellison - the Malton handler boasts a 25% strike-rate over the past fortnight. Houblon Des Obeaux will like the ground but appears to have a stiff introduction to British racing here - writing on his blog jockey Aidan Coleman advises a watching brief on this occasion. As a play against the odds-on favourite, I'll chance Marsh Warbler each-way provided eight make it to the start - Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both offer 8/1 this evening but Coral go 5/1.

Only seven in the opener but it looks trappy so I'm not going to get involved. Big Knickers goes in the maiden hurdle (2.50) and is a favourite of mine as, if nothing else, the mare provides me with an opportunity to rattle out the old schoolby gags... Having said that, Neil Mulholland's charge isn't without ability. Her last run can be safely ignored as the trainer has told us she was 'over-trained' for her hurdling debut at Worcester. She has been given time to recover from that and will appreciate the underfoot conditions here - Big Knickers should warrant an each-way interest...

In the concluding bumper Saint Luke has to concede seven pounds to all his rivals which won't be an easy task in the ground. Tenby Jewel was well beaten at Fontwell earlier today (and may not run here) so for those who want to oppose, Dai Burchell's point to point winner Beat All Out is the suggestion.

Guest blogger - ex-boss goes to Chepstow's Welsh National meet

A couple of weeks ago an unusual thing happened. My former boss, apparently enjoying a blissful retirement now (although I only learned of that a couple of weeks ago) contacted me straight out of the blue, asking for a view on the Welsh National at Chepstow as he happened to be going to that meeting over the Christmas break. Immediately I was presented with a dilemma - should I go for 'payback' and deliberately tip Mr. N a couple of duff horses (Dream Alliance looked to have plenty going for it - form figs of PUPP, off the track for 18 months and then second place in a Class 3 handicap hurdle seven weeks previously) or should I do the honourable thing, put in the homework and then watch the selections run in the manner I thought the duff ones would. After considerable deliberation I took the latter option and, at the same time, secured Mr. N's agreement that he would write a report on his day at the Chepstow races.

For the record, I've edited the original in places, leaving in just one or two disparaging remarks about the blog, just to give the piece that air of authenticity.

Here's the report...

I have been anticipating for several months now the brother’s invitation to go to the Welsh Grand National meeting at Chepstow less than two National trips from his home in South Wales, so it was good to hear that racing was actually on just seconds after we shelled out our cash to join the large and enthusiastic crowd. Armed with a good commentary on the likely National field from PG Tips, and a good check on the rest of the runners that morning, hopes were high for a good day.

As the only regular, if now lapsed, punter in the group comprising one sister one daughter and the one and only Mrs N I dutifully explained how to read form, what C and D meant, the significance of the going and that the usual suspects such as AP McCoy and P Nicholls were unlikely to go away empty-handed. Against my better judgement I was persuaded to join in the spirit of the day and bet on the first race which I had studiously ignored as it was a six horse beginners race. Swiftly spotting the value I opted for Starburst Diamond and, repaying my faith, he was in just the right position coming to the turn but forgot about the impending jump. There were only two fallers at the entire meeting - I had picked one of them. Now I know why in the past I stuck to the Flat. My horses need all the help they can get; putting obstacles in the way doesn’t help. To add insult to injury the sister backed the winner, Mark the Book, based on the sensible reasoning that she has a friend called Mark!

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350833,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 1

Much better field for the second race which I had studied and concluded that Buck the Legend was as good a chance as any and at a reasonable price. Daughter meanwhile opted for Magic Sky persuaded not so much by the tempting odds and promising form but because the jockey’s name was the same as one of her best friends. She soon learned that form and experience are better guides than the jockey’s name as Magic Sky trailed the field for most of the race whilst Buck the Legend was handily placed throughout. In the long and punishing finishing straight I was just explaining to the daughter that Mr Tips had suggested that the course was too tough for any horse to come from behind to win, as Magic Sky found a sprinter's turn of foot and ran away with the race. A veteran of two Royal Ascots including one where she actually watched some racing, this was her first winner and a nice lucrative one at that.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350834,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 2

The brother (whom we whisper quietly is a banker) was enjoying his role of taking all of our money and investing it on our behalf in a range of sure fire winners offering enticing returns so it was no surprise that on the next race we all lost our investment whilst he backed an 8-1 winner Money Order not because it was a crafty JP McManus raider but because it had money in the name!

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350835,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 3

In the big race I referred to Mr Tips’s commentary and followed his advice looking for a good e/w bet and opted for one of his list of potentials, Kornati Kid, but also slipped a little bet on Silver by Nature based on my own research. The Kid was prominent for a long time raising hope and tracked Silver by Nature for most of the time. By the turn for the straight the Kid was shot but Silver by Nature had moved up to dispute the lead and had plenty in hand looking nailed on to repay my faith. All the grey had to do was clear the last which of course it hit, lost momentum and the race. A large family loss all round.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,347307,00.html

Sang Bleu looked a Nicholls/McCoy certainty in the next race but the odds prohibitive so I intended to pass until I was told I had to have a go so I went with the favourite on the nose, where else? The wife meanwhile, unable to bet her preferred tip the non runner Hector’s House (don’t ask), switched at the last minute to Me Voici which of course beat mine in a driving finish after McCoy had somehow managed to hit the last hurdle probably burdened with my expectations.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350836,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 4

Astonishingly, or inevitably depending on who you are, exactly the same thing happened in the next race. The wife, getting the hang of it now, beat me to the McCoy mount so I looked for value lower down the pecking order and opted for Volador which had good form and had raced here before. It proved my only drag of the day at 9-2 and my third 2nd place whilst Mrs N cleaned up again with Be There in Five.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350837,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 5

And finally to put the tin hat on it the brother showing just how banking works put a few bob of his previous winnings on Crannagmore Boy which romped home for his second win of the day. Mine is still running I think. Why did he pick this one? Because it was running in gold, the colour that Wolves play in and his mate supports Wolves!!! From now on I am choosing horses by the colour of the jockeys socks - I can’t do much worse.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350838,00.html

Final Score
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 6

Despite this and the bitter cold, a brilliant day out at a very nice friendly course which even offered decent real ale. There was a fine tribute to the Welsh Guards who turned out to loud applause and Land Of My Fathers was sung beautifully by Sara Kempe before the big race. Shame about the losses. So what’s running tomorrow….

Footnote - I'm thinking of offering Mrs N a month's trial -PG.