Ebor meeting - The Yorkshire Oaks

In a fascinating renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks Sariska, second to Dar Re Mi last year, will hope to make amends this time around, while her two principal rivals are Midday and this year's English and Irish Oaks winner Snow Fairy. Midday nearly threw away victory in the Nassau at Goodwood the last time - I expect Tom Queally won't commit his charge so early here. Last year's dual Oaks winner Sariska had Henry Cecil's filly beaten on both occasions - it's worth noting Midday has never won at the trip. Of the principals Sariska looks the percentage call while Snow Fairy is the most interesting but the layers don't look to be taking any chances. Meeznah ran second at a big price in this year's Oaks and looked for all the world as though she was going to pull off a major shock until headed near the line; her subsequent fourth at the Curragh was less impressive but at the prices I'll forgive that effort and have an each-way bet on Meeznah at 16/1 provided the rain stays away and the eight get to post.

Epsom Oaks 2010

To paraphrase Martin Waller, City Diary columinst at The Times - Bing! Yet another email falls into my overflowing electronic intray...

This particular missive isn't one of the many I receive at regular intervals from person(s) unknown who inform me that I have either won $1,000,000 in a lottery I never entered or that a regal gentleman from a far-off land wishes to pay a similarly vast amount of money into my humble bank account. No, this mail originates from respected tipster Peter Naughton and offers a free Oaks preview - this looks of some considerable interest. The accompanying advertising encourages me to 'join the 10p line for as little as £4.50 a day' - confusing, I know, but I'm keen to read the free Oaks advice and I soon discover Peter predicts a 'massive' run from Sajjhaa but takes Marcus Tregoning's Rumoush to collect the big race spoils. In the ensuing interview, the trainer points out she has a great chance, has beaten the colts in the Gerry Fielden and says '... I know our filly picks up well and I'm fairly sure she will stay.'

In the past decade the market has proved a decent enough guide to the Oaks with the favourite / joint favourite collecting on six occasions. Rumoush is near the head of he market, although I am perturbed by her draw in stall two. Ideally, in both the Oaks and the Derby, I prefer a high-drawn horse - I feel that runners from the lower berths have to use up a little more petrol to get a good racing position in the early stages.

This year's Oaks is wide-open - on the back of the trainer's bullish comments I'm going to take Peter's advice and have a small win wager on Rumoush.

Epsom Oaks & Coronation Cup

This year's Oaks looks rather trappy. Michael Bell's Sariska is market leader on the back of her win in the Musidora at York three weeks ago. The field went no pace in the early stages and the race developed into something of a sprint two from home; tomorrow will be different. Rainbow View was all the rage before the 1,000 Guineas but disappointed, finishing fifth; connections blamed the firm ground for that performance. She is the top-rated animal here and will be a danger to all if back to her best but fast going will once again be a cause for concern. On official handicap ratings Henry Cecil's Midday has enough to find with the front two in the betting; the trainer excels with fillies and has a good record in this race. There has been money for Philipina and I've seen Clive Brittian's Wadaat talked up in places, including by Dick Hunter in the Weekender. This horse was beaten a long way by Midday in the Oaks trial at Lingfield when hold up tactics were blamed for her poor showing. Following that run, she went on to finish second in the Group 2 Italian Oaks twelve days ago. Currently available at 33/1 in places (she has been 66/1 earlier in the week) Wadaat looks worth an each-way interest for those with an adventurous disposition; my idea of the winner is Midday.

Many think the Coronation Cup (2.45) an easier puzzle to solve; I'm not so sure. Mick Channon's course and distance winner Youmzain is clear top-rated and has been the subject of bullish reports from his trainer. Last year's surprise Oaks winner Look Here is returning after a lengthy layoff and, whilst respected, may find this a tough comeback. Youmzain is the one to beat but doesn't offer particularly good value in the betting. At this stage I'm somewhat tempted by Andrew Balding's Buccellati in whom I think there is some improvement to come. The trainer was keen on his charge's chance at Chester prior to the withdrawal of five of the eight runners in the Ormonde. In the event Buccellati won the farcical renewal, with hot favourite Frozen Fire trailling in last of the trio. After that race Balding hinted his charge may have won in any case - I'll consider an each-way interest in Buccellati at around 10/1.

Oaks Day at Epsom

I haven't done a lot of work on tomorrow's card at Epsom but perhaps that's no bad thing. In the Coronation Cup at 3.25 Mick Channon's Youmzain is too big at 8/1, is in with a chance of winning on his best form, and in any case, at that price, rates an each-way wager for the more cautiously-minded.

In the Oaks Clive Cox's filly Miracle Seeker is one with a good attitude. On the formbook she has loads to find with the principals but the drying ground will suit, she will stay and her latest win at Lingfield means she should handle the course. The trainer, writing in the Weekender, is sweet enough on her chances ("...if she can repeat on the track what I've seen her do at home she is definitely in with a chance..." ) considering the bookmakers have priced her up at 40/1. The draw in stall two doesn't appear to have done her any favours but she's a sporting selection to run into a place.

Epsom Oaks

With further rain having fallen through the week, the going at Epsom is now soft. Fourteen runners go to post for the Oaks, Henry Cecil's Passage Of Time likely to start favourite. I opposed this horse in the Musidora at York and I'm inclined to do so again following her well documented problems with an abscess on her epiglottis. A bullish piece in The Weekender quotes Cecil as expecting both his fillies 'to be in the first three'. With that in mind, I'll be supporting the yard's Light Shift (currently 6/1 with Totesport) and may be tempted into a reverse forecast Light Shift and Passage Of Time. Should either of them oblige, there won't be a dry eye in the house.

Oaks update

Last month I highlighted the chance of Speciosa http://pgstips.blogspot.com/2006/05/epsom-oaks.html

Currently the best price is 11/2 with Paddy Power. Jockey Micky Fenton has been particularly bullish, saying she's the one they have to beat.

The market doesn't see it that way. Personally I think the drying ground is a major concern.

Best each way longshot - Prowess @ 66/1.

Epsom Oaks

The Epsom Derby is less than two weeks away but the fillies with entries in The Oaks have been attracting more of the attention.

At York last week, the headline writers have had great fun with Sir Michael Stoute's filly Short Skirt; examples included 'Short Skirt raises a few eyebrows' and 'Short Skirt a cut above rivals'.

Pam Sly looks as though she'll supplement her filly Speciosa at a cost of £20,000 following her victory in the 1000 Guineas. An Oaks victory for this small jumping yard based in Peterborough would be the fairytale story. To draw a rather trite footballing comparison, Speciosa winning The Oaks would be on a par with the local football team winning the F.A. Cup.

On Saturday Channel 4's John McCririck pointed out that 1000 Guineas winners have a decent record in The Oaks. Speciosa will need some cut in the ground to be seen at her best. We've had a bit of rain recently; Speciosa is currently 8/1 with Betfred.