The blow-up beds have been deflated and salient family members shoved out the front door and up the road to church.
Fair play to the parish priest too - he's ever eager to play the part of pantomime villain by further elongating an already elongated religious celebration.
The Christmas Day post is never an easy post to write - looking to offer some small crumb of hope and comfort to those forced to spend the day with relatives they wished were a lot further away than they actually are. And then Auntie Betty drops her false teeth into the trifle.
Six cards (Huntingdon abandoned) to analyse before salient family members return - an impossible task, even with the initial spadework carried out last night.
The trouble is this year I think I might have chanced on something that might have half a chance.
The King George and Christmas Hurdle at Kempton promise some fascinating clashes but I won't be having a bet in either; Commanche Red can be given an each-way shout in the 1.20 on the back of his third behind Nube Negra and his third behind Reserve Tank.
Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick Chase (2.10) will prove informative and Zerachiel - with seven pound claimer Charlie Todd in the plate - can be given every chance in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (2.15) on the back of his second place in this race last year.
I'm off to Wincanton though where Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow.
But what's this? Fresh from pulling off a stunning victory with Not So Sleepy at Ascot on Saturday, renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison sends *three* runners to the track - Urban Artist (12.55); Third Wind (1.25) and Supamouse (3.45).
The stable's updated figures with their jump runners after Not So Sleepy's win now read:
Season to date: 4 wins from 9 runs (44%); +23.50 points profit
Last five years: 23 wins from 116 runs (20%); +34.29 points profit
A 1 point each-way patent (outlay 14 points) returns 430 points (using prices quoted today as a guide) in the admittedly unlikely event Mr Morrison's three runners win.
Now, we all know it's been a bumpy year but at least there's something to distract you from Uncle Albert's political ramblings over the Christmas turkey...
With best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.
Showing posts with label boxing day. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boxing day. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
Friday, December 20, 2019
Christmas comes but once a year...
This time last year I was the rather fortunate recipient of three bottles of wine in a rather fetching presentation box that one of my sisters-in-law mistakenly sent to me instead of my mother and father-in-law.
A gift horse at Christmas told the propitious tale in its entirety and proved one of the most popular posts of the season yet, tellingly, contained next no racing content whatsoever.
Unfortunately my sister-in-law hasn't repeated the trick this year so, like everyone else, I'm obliged to offer a sentence or two on the approach of the end of the decade.
Ten years ago Richard Johnson had just ridden 2,000 winners and Ruby Walsh was about to ride Kauto Star to a fourth consecutive King George; the comments-in running described Kauto's victory as 'magnificent'.
That said, the plot lines for the Christmas Day episode of East Enders appear to have hardly changed at all over the past decade.
This year's King George looks more competitive than the 2009 renewal but my cunning plan to bet Bristol De Mai each-way at around 25/1 has been foiled as there are now only seven runners left in the field - and Bristol De Mai isn't one of them.
Jockey bookings have caught my eye for tomorrow's Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot (3.35); the going is currently heavy, soft in places and an inspection is scheduled for eight o'clock.
Tom Scudamore, successful at the track earlier to-day on his sole mount Israel Champ, has one ride booked tomorrow - Umbrigado; Tom prefers to ride here rather than Daklondike in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock.
Meanwhile Harry Skelton has one ride booked at Haydock - Crosspark in the Tommy Whittle - while Bridget Andrews picks up the ride on Mohaayed.
Mohaayed won this race last year but trainer Dan Skelton has since said:
"...but his last place in the Welsh Champion Hurdle [19 October 2019]...confirmed what I've believed for a while, that the handicapper needs to give him a break."
Fair play to the handicapper too - for once he appears to have listened by dropping the horse back to a mark of 145, the very mark from which the gelding won the race last year. It's just that Harry Skelton prefers to ride Crosspark at Haydock.
Richard Johnson prefers Crooks Peak to Zanza which brings in Greatwood Hurdle form. Five weeks ago the Alan King trained Harambe pipped Gumball at Cheltenham with Monsieur Le Coq third, Quoi De Neuf fourth, Zanza sixth, Countister seventh and Mohaayed ninth. The fifth horse, Dame De Compagnie, looked impressive winning the Park Mares' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last week.
The Greatwood wouldn't necessarily be the best form yardstick to use; winner Harambe was priced up favourite earlier in the week but has since been the subject of an injury scare. I couldn't be certain but I think there was a doubt about Harambe before the Greatwood.
Paul Nicholls saddles two four-year-olds with Harry Cobden aboard Tamaroc Du Mathan. After a long layoff this one ran well behind Master Deboniar at this track last month; Master Debonair gave hotpot Ribble Valley three pounds and an eight length beating earlier today. All that said, Nicholls' stable form is just 2-26 (8%) over the past fortnight.
The ground would be a worry for the Nicky Henderson trained French Crusader but Not So Sleepy, 94 on the Flat, fourth in the Cesarewitch and on Racing Post ratings joint top with Mohaayed here, is respected. Hughie Morrison's charge was gifted an early lead last time but I like this handler's jumps runners who are always worth a second look; in the past five years he boasts a 19% win strike-rate with his jumpers showing a profit of 29.79 points while this season he has recorded three wins from eight runs and returned a profit of 19 points.
A hugely competitive event and Tom Scudamore's decision to ride Umbrigado (David Pipe: 'he'll cope with the ground as well as anything I think') does not go unnoticed but I'm going to take an each-way chance with Whoshothesheriff.
Phil Kirkby's runner has a consistent profile - to date he has been placed in the hurdle races he has completed and last April won at a right-handed track - Carlisle. He looked a tad unlucky the last day when run down on the long run-in after the last at Haydock; the step back in trip here should suit.
Generally a 12/1 chance, Sky Bet are paying one fifth the the odds six places; Whoshotthesheriff is the each-way suggestion.
Finally, for those worried by impending Christmas doom, here's a little something to ease the pain - the Boxing Day declarations.
A gift horse at Christmas told the propitious tale in its entirety and proved one of the most popular posts of the season yet, tellingly, contained next no racing content whatsoever.
Unfortunately my sister-in-law hasn't repeated the trick this year so, like everyone else, I'm obliged to offer a sentence or two on the approach of the end of the decade.
Ten years ago Richard Johnson had just ridden 2,000 winners and Ruby Walsh was about to ride Kauto Star to a fourth consecutive King George; the comments-in running described Kauto's victory as 'magnificent'.
That said, the plot lines for the Christmas Day episode of East Enders appear to have hardly changed at all over the past decade.
This year's King George looks more competitive than the 2009 renewal but my cunning plan to bet Bristol De Mai each-way at around 25/1 has been foiled as there are now only seven runners left in the field - and Bristol De Mai isn't one of them.
Jockey bookings have caught my eye for tomorrow's Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot (3.35); the going is currently heavy, soft in places and an inspection is scheduled for eight o'clock.
Tom Scudamore, successful at the track earlier to-day on his sole mount Israel Champ, has one ride booked tomorrow - Umbrigado; Tom prefers to ride here rather than Daklondike in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock.
Meanwhile Harry Skelton has one ride booked at Haydock - Crosspark in the Tommy Whittle - while Bridget Andrews picks up the ride on Mohaayed.
Mohaayed won this race last year but trainer Dan Skelton has since said:
"...but his last place in the Welsh Champion Hurdle [19 October 2019]...confirmed what I've believed for a while, that the handicapper needs to give him a break."
Fair play to the handicapper too - for once he appears to have listened by dropping the horse back to a mark of 145, the very mark from which the gelding won the race last year. It's just that Harry Skelton prefers to ride Crosspark at Haydock.
Richard Johnson prefers Crooks Peak to Zanza which brings in Greatwood Hurdle form. Five weeks ago the Alan King trained Harambe pipped Gumball at Cheltenham with Monsieur Le Coq third, Quoi De Neuf fourth, Zanza sixth, Countister seventh and Mohaayed ninth. The fifth horse, Dame De Compagnie, looked impressive winning the Park Mares' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last week.
The Greatwood wouldn't necessarily be the best form yardstick to use; winner Harambe was priced up favourite earlier in the week but has since been the subject of an injury scare. I couldn't be certain but I think there was a doubt about Harambe before the Greatwood.
Paul Nicholls saddles two four-year-olds with Harry Cobden aboard Tamaroc Du Mathan. After a long layoff this one ran well behind Master Deboniar at this track last month; Master Debonair gave hotpot Ribble Valley three pounds and an eight length beating earlier today. All that said, Nicholls' stable form is just 2-26 (8%) over the past fortnight.
The ground would be a worry for the Nicky Henderson trained French Crusader but Not So Sleepy, 94 on the Flat, fourth in the Cesarewitch and on Racing Post ratings joint top with Mohaayed here, is respected. Hughie Morrison's charge was gifted an early lead last time but I like this handler's jumps runners who are always worth a second look; in the past five years he boasts a 19% win strike-rate with his jumpers showing a profit of 29.79 points while this season he has recorded three wins from eight runs and returned a profit of 19 points.
A hugely competitive event and Tom Scudamore's decision to ride Umbrigado (David Pipe: 'he'll cope with the ground as well as anything I think') does not go unnoticed but I'm going to take an each-way chance with Whoshothesheriff.
Phil Kirkby's runner has a consistent profile - to date he has been placed in the hurdle races he has completed and last April won at a right-handed track - Carlisle. He looked a tad unlucky the last day when run down on the long run-in after the last at Haydock; the step back in trip here should suit.
Generally a 12/1 chance, Sky Bet are paying one fifth the the odds six places; Whoshotthesheriff is the each-way suggestion.
Finally, for those worried by impending Christmas doom, here's a little something to ease the pain - the Boxing Day declarations.
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
The trouble with Christmas...
The trouble with Christmas - there are simply too many distractions and as a consequence one's form study suffers.
A couple of each-way Boxing Day longshots I'm going to mull over during Christmas dinner...
Double Shuffle (40/1) in a vintage renewal of of the King George (3.05 Kempton) on the back of his one length second to Might Bite in last year's race.
Allyson Monterg (11/1) in the Rowland Meyrick (2.10 Wetherby). Just eight declared and they'd all need to start for the bookies to pay three places but 14/1 has long since disappeared. Was pulled up behind Presenting Percy in the RSA and came home seventh beaten a long way by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy. I note that in the past decade all winners have been aged either seven or eight apart form According To Pete in 2011 and that in the same timeframe only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Cape Tribulation (2012) and Dolatulo (2014); Captain Chaos and Crosspark fit the required profile.
Food for thought.
Very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.
A couple of each-way Boxing Day longshots I'm going to mull over during Christmas dinner...
Double Shuffle (40/1) in a vintage renewal of of the King George (3.05 Kempton) on the back of his one length second to Might Bite in last year's race.
Allyson Monterg (11/1) in the Rowland Meyrick (2.10 Wetherby). Just eight declared and they'd all need to start for the bookies to pay three places but 14/1 has long since disappeared. Was pulled up behind Presenting Percy in the RSA and came home seventh beaten a long way by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy. I note that in the past decade all winners have been aged either seven or eight apart form According To Pete in 2011 and that in the same timeframe only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Cape Tribulation (2012) and Dolatulo (2014); Captain Chaos and Crosspark fit the required profile.
Food for thought.
Very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Kempton's King George VI Chase 2014
Burdened with family commitments, this year I haven't spent as much time with the form book as I should have...
On official ratings Silviniaco Conti is the one to beat in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10). Paul Nicholls' charge did the blog a favour in Haydock's Betfair Chase last month; the softer the ground the better.
The next two in the market, Champagne Fever and Al Ferof, have never won over three miles so I've looked more closely at Menorah and Cue Card.
Both will appreciate drying ground and, according to the weather forecast, that's what they're likely to get.
Menorah has been something of a revelation this year winning Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase on good ground and then finishing two lengths adrift of Silviniaco in the Betfair where underfoot conditions were far more testing. In his younger days Philip Hobbs' gelding was known to have jumping issues but he has improved with age although I'm still reluctant to trust him implicitly over these obstacles.
Following a pelvic injury Cue Card has been a little slow to come to hand this term but connections have been making the right noises recently. Colin Tizzard's inmate was outstayed when beaten by Silviniaco in this event last year but he was aggressively ridden on that occasion and a more conservative approach may pay dividends; on official ratings he has three pounds to find with the favourite.
I can still see Cue Card emptying up the home straight in last year's renewal with the race apparently at his mercy and earlier fancier prices have disappeared as well so I'll take an each-way chance on Menorah (8/1) in the hope that his sticky jumping holds out.
Wishing all readers a very merry Christmas.
On official ratings Silviniaco Conti is the one to beat in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10). Paul Nicholls' charge did the blog a favour in Haydock's Betfair Chase last month; the softer the ground the better.
The next two in the market, Champagne Fever and Al Ferof, have never won over three miles so I've looked more closely at Menorah and Cue Card.
Both will appreciate drying ground and, according to the weather forecast, that's what they're likely to get.
Menorah has been something of a revelation this year winning Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase on good ground and then finishing two lengths adrift of Silviniaco in the Betfair where underfoot conditions were far more testing. In his younger days Philip Hobbs' gelding was known to have jumping issues but he has improved with age although I'm still reluctant to trust him implicitly over these obstacles.
Following a pelvic injury Cue Card has been a little slow to come to hand this term but connections have been making the right noises recently. Colin Tizzard's inmate was outstayed when beaten by Silviniaco in this event last year but he was aggressively ridden on that occasion and a more conservative approach may pay dividends; on official ratings he has three pounds to find with the favourite.
I can still see Cue Card emptying up the home straight in last year's renewal with the race apparently at his mercy and earlier fancier prices have disappeared as well so I'll take an each-way chance on Menorah (8/1) in the hope that his sticky jumping holds out.
Wishing all readers a very merry Christmas.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Kempton's King George VI Chase 2013
Nine are declared for this year's King George. Cue Card, fifth last year, is priced up favourite with most layers while last year's winner Long Run is generally a 10/1 chance.
Last month I tipped Silviniaco Conti for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite travelling well through the race, Nicholls' charge couldn't go with either Cue Card or Dynaste from two out and on face value he'll struggle to reverse those placings yet official ratings indicate he is within one pound of top-rated Cue Card. Nicholls' string wasn't firing on all cylinders at that time; on the same day as the Haydock showpiece Nicholls' first jock Daryl Jacob was at Ascot riding Al Ferof in a match against French Opera. Al Ferof's fencing looked a little ring-rusty there but Jacob stays loyal to Al Ferof.
Cue Card posted a career best to win the Betfair Chase proving he stays the trip. He's likely to race prominently but isn't always the most fluent at the obstacles; on balance I think he could struggle to repeat his front-running feat at this track - last year he blew away his chance with a howler at the first.
Dynaste was an easy winner of the Feltham over course and distance last year. In a very open renewal, I take Dynaste to grab the spoils - he's priced up generally at 100/30.
Long Run, wearing a first-time visor, rates a value each-way selection at 10/1. Invariably he throws in one dodgy jump on the way round but should the visor do the trick...
On paper the Christmas Hurdle is a match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Throughout his career Twiston-Davies has favoured a bold risk-taking approach; he immediately nominated this race after his charge won the International at Cheltenham just 12 days ago, implying his charge had had an easy enough race. I'm not so convinced; I won't have a bet but this track is likely to suit Henderson's charge better.
Last month I tipped Silviniaco Conti for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite travelling well through the race, Nicholls' charge couldn't go with either Cue Card or Dynaste from two out and on face value he'll struggle to reverse those placings yet official ratings indicate he is within one pound of top-rated Cue Card. Nicholls' string wasn't firing on all cylinders at that time; on the same day as the Haydock showpiece Nicholls' first jock Daryl Jacob was at Ascot riding Al Ferof in a match against French Opera. Al Ferof's fencing looked a little ring-rusty there but Jacob stays loyal to Al Ferof.
Cue Card posted a career best to win the Betfair Chase proving he stays the trip. He's likely to race prominently but isn't always the most fluent at the obstacles; on balance I think he could struggle to repeat his front-running feat at this track - last year he blew away his chance with a howler at the first.
Dynaste was an easy winner of the Feltham over course and distance last year. In a very open renewal, I take Dynaste to grab the spoils - he's priced up generally at 100/30.
Long Run, wearing a first-time visor, rates a value each-way selection at 10/1. Invariably he throws in one dodgy jump on the way round but should the visor do the trick...
On paper the Christmas Hurdle is a match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Throughout his career Twiston-Davies has favoured a bold risk-taking approach; he immediately nominated this race after his charge won the International at Cheltenham just 12 days ago, implying his charge had had an easy enough race. I'm not so convinced; I won't have a bet but this track is likely to suit Henderson's charge better.
Monday, December 24, 2012
Boxing Day at Kempton 2012
Looking back at previous posts penned at this time of year, I couldn't help but think 2009's offering, entitled ' Rescue required', still hits the nail on the head...
The persistent rain is likely to affect several cards (Huntingdon already lost) but, all being well, Kempton's traditional Boxing Day card will go ahead as planned where the King George VI Chase is the feature. Ten declared for what looks sure to be an intriguing renewal.
Last year Kauto Star beat Long Run one and a quarter lengths (Captain Chris a further 17 lengths behind third). Kauto was scheduled to parade before this year's renewal and, as far as I'm aware, the rather public tiff between owner Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls shouldn't affect that arrangement; whatever, the great horse won't be running in the race itself and Long Run is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson's stable star was beaten by Silviniaco Conti on his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase at Haydock four and a half weeks ago; after that run connections hinted they may change tactics - I'm expecting to see Long Run ridden more prominently.
I'm sure we've heard racing people say that if any horse is ever going to get a three mile trip, he'll get it at Kempton (or Ludlow even) - Cue Card and Riverside Theatre, second and third in the market, have never won over the distance which is a concern, although the trainer of the former, writing in the Weekender, thinks his charge will ('... and in his current form is a major player') while the latter, owned by the Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership, has been aimed specifically at this race.
Nicholls relies on Kauto's half-brother Kauto Stone this year; the lack of big-race experience may worry some but it's worth noting four six-year-olds have taken this in the past twenty years, three in the past decade - Kicking King (2004), Kauto Star (2006) and Long Run (2010).
Grands Crus took last year's Feltham over course and distance but it's difficult to be confident here after his disappointing run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Tom Scudamore appears to prefer this one to The Giant Bolster. McCoy rides David Bridgwater's Gold Cup second who, in my opinion, is still a little underrated.
I think Philip Hobbs could have Captain Chris in better form than last year - I would have considered an each-way wager had the ground been better - but, with the rain around, The Giant Bolster is the each-way selection at 10/1 or bigger. The worry is all his chase runs have been on left-handed tracks.
Countrywide Flame is as tough as old boots and did this blog a favour winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle; visually that was most impressive. Connections offered the ground as the reason behind Cinders And Ashes' disappoinitng defeat that day - the stable are in better form now (four wins from nine runners in past week). I'm loathe to desert Countrywide Flame but a four-year-old hasn't won this since Kerawi (1997) so course and distance winner Darlan offers slightly better value and is the tentative selection in a trappy-looking affair.
Dynaste looks the one to beat in the Feltham but he'll be no price.
Have yourselves a happy little Christmas!
Postscript (added 24.12.12 21:00): Of course, as Tom Scudamore is retained by David Pipe, he has never been in a position where he has had to choose between Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster. Writing in today's Times, Scudamore says 'I am hoping that a recent breathing operation has restored his [Grands Crus'] powers.'
The persistent rain is likely to affect several cards (Huntingdon already lost) but, all being well, Kempton's traditional Boxing Day card will go ahead as planned where the King George VI Chase is the feature. Ten declared for what looks sure to be an intriguing renewal.
Last year Kauto Star beat Long Run one and a quarter lengths (Captain Chris a further 17 lengths behind third). Kauto was scheduled to parade before this year's renewal and, as far as I'm aware, the rather public tiff between owner Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls shouldn't affect that arrangement; whatever, the great horse won't be running in the race itself and Long Run is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson's stable star was beaten by Silviniaco Conti on his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase at Haydock four and a half weeks ago; after that run connections hinted they may change tactics - I'm expecting to see Long Run ridden more prominently.
I'm sure we've heard racing people say that if any horse is ever going to get a three mile trip, he'll get it at Kempton (or Ludlow even) - Cue Card and Riverside Theatre, second and third in the market, have never won over the distance which is a concern, although the trainer of the former, writing in the Weekender, thinks his charge will ('... and in his current form is a major player') while the latter, owned by the Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership, has been aimed specifically at this race.
Nicholls relies on Kauto's half-brother Kauto Stone this year; the lack of big-race experience may worry some but it's worth noting four six-year-olds have taken this in the past twenty years, three in the past decade - Kicking King (2004), Kauto Star (2006) and Long Run (2010).
Grands Crus took last year's Feltham over course and distance but it's difficult to be confident here after his disappointing run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Tom Scudamore appears to prefer this one to The Giant Bolster. McCoy rides David Bridgwater's Gold Cup second who, in my opinion, is still a little underrated.
I think Philip Hobbs could have Captain Chris in better form than last year - I would have considered an each-way wager had the ground been better - but, with the rain around, The Giant Bolster is the each-way selection at 10/1 or bigger. The worry is all his chase runs have been on left-handed tracks.
Countrywide Flame is as tough as old boots and did this blog a favour winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle; visually that was most impressive. Connections offered the ground as the reason behind Cinders And Ashes' disappoinitng defeat that day - the stable are in better form now (four wins from nine runners in past week). I'm loathe to desert Countrywide Flame but a four-year-old hasn't won this since Kerawi (1997) so course and distance winner Darlan offers slightly better value and is the tentative selection in a trappy-looking affair.
Dynaste looks the one to beat in the Feltham but he'll be no price.
Have yourselves a happy little Christmas!
Postscript (added 24.12.12 21:00): Of course, as Tom Scudamore is retained by David Pipe, he has never been in a position where he has had to choose between Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster. Writing in today's Times, Scudamore says 'I am hoping that a recent breathing operation has restored his [Grands Crus'] powers.'
Friday, December 23, 2011
A quick Boxing Day selection box
Kempton's King George VI Chase is the Boxing Day highlight with eight declared. Long Run is the top-rated animal; he's never been the one to trust implicitly at the fences but his class has seen him through more often than not. In the Betfair at Haydock he was beaten eight lengths by Kauto Star but put in a couple of howlers down the back straight second time around and should strip fitter here. Today's Times reports that a set of golden plates have been created for Kauto and will be presented to his trainer Paul Nicholls before the race. Master Minded, Captain Chris and Somersby have stamina questions to answer but Diamond Harry will stay on this his first try going right-handed. He was 18 lengths behind in the Betfair but Barry Geraghty takes the ride and looks value at 16/1 provided the eight go to post. Favourites have an excellent record in this race but I'll take an each-way interest in Diamond Harry who won't be inconvenienced by further rain.
Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.
Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.
Two worth a second look...
Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.
Binocular won the Christmas Hurdle last year but the race was mid-January - the horse's record before new year's day of a season isn't particularly encouraging. The yard is bullish but connections were before the Fighting Fifth - I'm not tempted.
Grand Crus has looked impressive over the larger obstacles this season and is fanceid to get the better of Bobs Worth whose jumping wasn't foot-perfect last time at Newbury when just catching Cue Card on the line. The Pipe yard hasn't totally discounted a stab at the Gold Cup with their novice.
Two worth a second look...
Wetherby 1.45 - Neptune Equester
Wincanton 2.15 - Tante Sissi.
Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very merry Christmas.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Boxing Day selections
The weather is likely to have its say with many of the scheduled cards, so I've concentrated on the King George meeting at Kempton and added a couple of observations for Wincanton which doesn't have an inspection planned at the time of writing.
My local Ladbrokes has a big sign in the window, encouraging punters to come in and have a bet on 'Kauto Star Day'. I'm a Kauto Star fan and hope to see the great horse win the King George for the fourth time but I won't be backing him at 4/7. I'm going to bet an each-way chance at bigger odds and the three that make most appeal are Barbers Shop, Deep Purple and Nacarat. Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop finished fourth in the Hennessy and has plenty to find on official ratings but this three mile trip should suit better; 18/1 in places is tempting. Deep Purple proved he stays three miles when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and has since won a competitive-looking Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. This is a step up but the handicapper rates him the fourth best horse in the race (behind Kauto, Imperial Commander and Madison Du Berlais). The stable is in form - 14/1 is generally available. I've a mention for front-runner Nacarat as Tom George's stable jockey Sam Thoams has chosen this one rather than Tartak. Nacarat won the Racing Post Chase over course and distance in impressive fashion last February. He clearly likes Kempton but his two runs this season have been dismal; having said that, Tom George's yard is firing again now. I've already taken out a small interest in Barbers Shop; looking at the above, the percentage each-way call appears to be Deep Purple.
The Christmas Hurdle (2.30) is intriguing. Binocular is the best horse in the race but he disappointed badly in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle the last time, a race won by Go Native who reopposes here. That race was something of a tactical affair; once again it's not immediately obvious where the pace will come from. A mention for Starluck, a speedy course and distance winner; he's a horse I like but as a four-year-old looks up against it. The word is Binocular is back to his best but I'm tempted to go with Go Native - Noel Meade has won this race in the past with Harchibald (twice) and Jazz Messenger.
Many will think the Feltham (1.55) is there for Nicky Henderson's French purchase Long Run, receiving weight from all his rivals; the owner's son takes the ride. Having had my fingers burnt in this particular race on a couple of occasions in the past, I'll watch from the sidelines; the Kempton fences are plenty stiff enough for novices learning their trade.
Bellvano, currently second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, is likely to be a short price in the opener. Inventor beat King Olav one and a quarter lengths at Ascot seven weeks ago (Manyriverstocross third); on the bare form King Olav might be expected to reverse placings eight pounds better off but the winner won well enough. Philip Hobbs' Menorah is well regarded and didn't appear to appreciate the set up in trip the last time while course and distance winner Cootehill is likely to race from the front. The winner has come from the first three in the betting eight times in last nine years; Bellvano is the one to beat but I'm going to play King Olav each-way if the price is big enough.
At Wincanton Nick Gifford's Royal Wedding is noted in the 2.20 although the yard hasn't had a winner for well over a month. Some interesting runners in the 3.25 - Ashkazar was sixth in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Venetia Williams, another who hasn't been in the best of form, fields four, stable jockey Aidan Coleman opting for Chief Yeoman. Aachen is well regarded but in contrast to most of his opponents this is his first run since the spring. In the concluding bumper I'd be tempted to take a chance with Megastar if not priced up favourite - the last time he had Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall back in fourth and that one has won since; the jock's seven pound claim offsets the penalty incurred for the win.
My local Ladbrokes has a big sign in the window, encouraging punters to come in and have a bet on 'Kauto Star Day'. I'm a Kauto Star fan and hope to see the great horse win the King George for the fourth time but I won't be backing him at 4/7. I'm going to bet an each-way chance at bigger odds and the three that make most appeal are Barbers Shop, Deep Purple and Nacarat. Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop finished fourth in the Hennessy and has plenty to find on official ratings but this three mile trip should suit better; 18/1 in places is tempting. Deep Purple proved he stays three miles when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and has since won a competitive-looking Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. This is a step up but the handicapper rates him the fourth best horse in the race (behind Kauto, Imperial Commander and Madison Du Berlais). The stable is in form - 14/1 is generally available. I've a mention for front-runner Nacarat as Tom George's stable jockey Sam Thoams has chosen this one rather than Tartak. Nacarat won the Racing Post Chase over course and distance in impressive fashion last February. He clearly likes Kempton but his two runs this season have been dismal; having said that, Tom George's yard is firing again now. I've already taken out a small interest in Barbers Shop; looking at the above, the percentage each-way call appears to be Deep Purple.
The Christmas Hurdle (2.30) is intriguing. Binocular is the best horse in the race but he disappointed badly in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle the last time, a race won by Go Native who reopposes here. That race was something of a tactical affair; once again it's not immediately obvious where the pace will come from. A mention for Starluck, a speedy course and distance winner; he's a horse I like but as a four-year-old looks up against it. The word is Binocular is back to his best but I'm tempted to go with Go Native - Noel Meade has won this race in the past with Harchibald (twice) and Jazz Messenger.
Many will think the Feltham (1.55) is there for Nicky Henderson's French purchase Long Run, receiving weight from all his rivals; the owner's son takes the ride. Having had my fingers burnt in this particular race on a couple of occasions in the past, I'll watch from the sidelines; the Kempton fences are plenty stiff enough for novices learning their trade.
Bellvano, currently second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, is likely to be a short price in the opener. Inventor beat King Olav one and a quarter lengths at Ascot seven weeks ago (Manyriverstocross third); on the bare form King Olav might be expected to reverse placings eight pounds better off but the winner won well enough. Philip Hobbs' Menorah is well regarded and didn't appear to appreciate the set up in trip the last time while course and distance winner Cootehill is likely to race from the front. The winner has come from the first three in the betting eight times in last nine years; Bellvano is the one to beat but I'm going to play King Olav each-way if the price is big enough.
At Wincanton Nick Gifford's Royal Wedding is noted in the 2.20 although the yard hasn't had a winner for well over a month. Some interesting runners in the 3.25 - Ashkazar was sixth in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Venetia Williams, another who hasn't been in the best of form, fields four, stable jockey Aidan Coleman opting for Chief Yeoman. Aachen is well regarded but in contrast to most of his opponents this is his first run since the spring. In the concluding bumper I'd be tempted to take a chance with Megastar if not priced up favourite - the last time he had Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall back in fourth and that one has won since; the jock's seven pound claim offsets the penalty incurred for the win.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Rescue required
There is something awful about Christmas.
A typical conversation around this time of year starts with the opening gambit 'What are you doing for Christmas?' In very general terms people tend to reply in one of two ways. The first reply is along the lines of they're going to relatives which means they won't have to worry about the cooking. What this *really* means is they would prefer not to go to the aforementioned relatives but from the gastronomic perspective at least there is some small consolation to be gained and appreciated. The second reply is along the lines of they're having people around. What this *really* means is they would prefer not to have the relatives around and they won't even have the consolation of not having to do the cooking.
As if all that wasn't enough to ruin your Christmas, you know that for months the BBC has charged its EastEnders scriptwriters to build up to yet another disaster / murder that will befall some poor unfortunate on the very evening of Christmas Day itself. I have never worked out why the really big horrors in EastEnders happen on a Christmas Day.
Fortunately the racing is there to keep us half sane. The reason you tend to have to queue to get on your local track on a Boxing Day is self-evident - both the people who went to their relatives for Christmas and those who had their relatives around for Christmas want to get away from their relatives. This year however there is a potential problem on the horizon in the shape of the weather. The 'cold snap' looks set to continue which is likely to spell trouble for the majority of turf fixtures scheduled to race on Boxing Day and heap further misery on those trying to avoid their relatives. Kempton Park has taken the precaution of covering the track but simply isn't anywhere near big enough to cater for all of us desperate to get away from our relatives.
I'll have to watch on telly and hope an each-way wager on 16/1 shot Barbers Shop in the King George can bring some light relief this Christmas time...
A typical conversation around this time of year starts with the opening gambit 'What are you doing for Christmas?' In very general terms people tend to reply in one of two ways. The first reply is along the lines of they're going to relatives which means they won't have to worry about the cooking. What this *really* means is they would prefer not to go to the aforementioned relatives but from the gastronomic perspective at least there is some small consolation to be gained and appreciated. The second reply is along the lines of they're having people around. What this *really* means is they would prefer not to have the relatives around and they won't even have the consolation of not having to do the cooking.
As if all that wasn't enough to ruin your Christmas, you know that for months the BBC has charged its EastEnders scriptwriters to build up to yet another disaster / murder that will befall some poor unfortunate on the very evening of Christmas Day itself. I have never worked out why the really big horrors in EastEnders happen on a Christmas Day.
Fortunately the racing is there to keep us half sane. The reason you tend to have to queue to get on your local track on a Boxing Day is self-evident - both the people who went to their relatives for Christmas and those who had their relatives around for Christmas want to get away from their relatives. This year however there is a potential problem on the horizon in the shape of the weather. The 'cold snap' looks set to continue which is likely to spell trouble for the majority of turf fixtures scheduled to race on Boxing Day and heap further misery on those trying to avoid their relatives. Kempton Park has taken the precaution of covering the track but simply isn't anywhere near big enough to cater for all of us desperate to get away from our relatives.
I'll have to watch on telly and hope an each-way wager on 16/1 shot Barbers Shop in the King George can bring some light relief this Christmas time...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Festive fare
The only thing that makes Christmas half-bearable is the racing on Boxing Day. Last night somebody who clearly has little regard for their own money asked me for an each-way outsider in the King George; I came up with 20/1 chance Snoopy Loopy. I figured if connections have stumped up £10k to supplement the horse, they must think it has some sort of chance. Previous King George winner and current favourite Kauto Star will generate plenty of press interest. However his stablemate and Gold Cup winner Denman has a surprise entry in the 2.55 hurdle race at Wincanton on the same day; teletext reports a decision regarding his participation will be taken on Tuesday. In the meantime, if you're in desperate need of rescue from the whole horror of Christmas, I recommend ploughing through the Boxing Day declarations to see if you can spot a cunning plot; should you happen to stumble upon one, please let me know.
Many will think that within the space of half an hour at Ascot on Saturday they saw the next Champion and World Hurdle winners in Binocular and Punchestowns. After winning on Binocular McCoy had a dig at the BBC's proposed coverage cuts with a quip that the only chance viewers would have to see the horse again would be on Top Gear.
A couple of midweek results caught my eye. Bannister Lane bounced back to form to win the three and three quarter mile handicap chase at Bangor on Wednesday while Ron Hodges' Dream Falcon was backed in from 20/1 to 7/1 before taking the two and a half mile novices' handicap chase at Ludlow on Thursday. At Ascot on Friday Medermit and Dee Ee Williams fought out a thrilling finish but perhaps the horse to note was Wendel who had every chance coming to the last; that form represents a big improvement on his previous two wins at Plumpton. Quoting Charlie Mann in the Weekender - "I have some very nice novice hurdlers this season and I think he could be the best of them." Earlier in the season Black Jacari was touted as a possible Triumph Hurdle hope but the horse has patently failed to deliver; he runs with first-time blinkers applied in a Class 4 juvenile novice hurdle at Hereford tomorrow.
It might be Christmas but the press still likes nothing better than a bad news story - they've been hinitng for a few weeks now that ten household High Street names are in danger of going to the wall in 2009. I wonder if William Hill is one of those ten names. And, finally, a phrase to strike fear into the heart of any sports administrator is 'suspicious betting patterns'. Last week snooker came under the spotlight...
Many will think that within the space of half an hour at Ascot on Saturday they saw the next Champion and World Hurdle winners in Binocular and Punchestowns. After winning on Binocular McCoy had a dig at the BBC's proposed coverage cuts with a quip that the only chance viewers would have to see the horse again would be on Top Gear.
A couple of midweek results caught my eye. Bannister Lane bounced back to form to win the three and three quarter mile handicap chase at Bangor on Wednesday while Ron Hodges' Dream Falcon was backed in from 20/1 to 7/1 before taking the two and a half mile novices' handicap chase at Ludlow on Thursday. At Ascot on Friday Medermit and Dee Ee Williams fought out a thrilling finish but perhaps the horse to note was Wendel who had every chance coming to the last; that form represents a big improvement on his previous two wins at Plumpton. Quoting Charlie Mann in the Weekender - "I have some very nice novice hurdlers this season and I think he could be the best of them." Earlier in the season Black Jacari was touted as a possible Triumph Hurdle hope but the horse has patently failed to deliver; he runs with first-time blinkers applied in a Class 4 juvenile novice hurdle at Hereford tomorrow.
It might be Christmas but the press still likes nothing better than a bad news story - they've been hinitng for a few weeks now that ten household High Street names are in danger of going to the wall in 2009. I wonder if William Hill is one of those ten names. And, finally, a phrase to strike fear into the heart of any sports administrator is 'suspicious betting patterns'. Last week snooker came under the spotlight...
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Boxing Day selection box
For those of you in the mood following your Christmas celebrations...
Huntingdon
12.15 Christdalo - ran in much hotter company last time; stable in form.
Kempton
1.10 Boychuk - trappy race but tough stayer; jumping concerns for Yes Sir and Knowhere.
1.45 Noble Request - conditions suit; Straw Bear vulnerable.
2.20 Kauto Star - unopposable.
Towcester
3.30 What A Buzz - big horse who was backed from 18/1 to 9/1 here last time and made brave attempt to win.
Wetherby
1.25 King Killone - conditions in his favour.
Huntingdon
12.15 Christdalo - ran in much hotter company last time; stable in form.
Kempton
1.10 Boychuk - trappy race but tough stayer; jumping concerns for Yes Sir and Knowhere.
1.45 Noble Request - conditions suit; Straw Bear vulnerable.
2.20 Kauto Star - unopposable.
Towcester
3.30 What A Buzz - big horse who was backed from 18/1 to 9/1 here last time and made brave attempt to win.
Wetherby
1.25 King Killone - conditions in his favour.
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