The 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham) is to be run in memory of Irish trainer Edward O'Grady who sent out 18 Festival winners between 1974 and 2006.

He trained Tranquil Sea to win this race in 2009 - and we haven't seen an Irish winner since. Five have crossed the Irish Sea to take their chance tomorrow. 

The going at Cheltenham is currently described as soft, good to soft in places, with a precautionary inspection called for 7.30 tomorrow morning as further heavy rain associated with Storm Claudia is forecast. 

Talking to ITV cameras before this afternoon's finale, clerk of the course Jon Pullen pointed out the rain was due to stop around 1.00 am and, with drying conditions, he was 'hopeful' racing could go ahead - the card would be given every chance.     

A final field of fifteen was declared on Thursday but this evening top weight and market leader Jagwar has been declared a non-runner on account of the ground. 

Vicenzo, a big horse who goes well fresh and generally needs time between his races, has replaced Jagwar at the head of the market. Sam Thomas' charge has yet to win over this trip but the stable has sent out five winners from seven runners in the past fortnight. 

Last year's winner Il Ridoto tries to repeat the trick this time off a mark just one pound higher.

Paul Nicholls' inmate raced from out the handicap that day but caries 11-08 tomorrow which indicates this year's running wouldn't be considered the highest quality renewal - last year top weight Protektorat was rated 167 and five others runners in the field of 15 ran off a mark in the 150s.

The lowest rated winner in the past decade is Coole Coady (137) in 2020.

Dan Skelton saddles three -  Panic Attack, Hoe Joly Smoke and Riskintheground. 

Harry rides the mare Panic Attack which suggests she's the stable's best chance - in a recent stable tour article the handler said:

"The plan is to give her one run and go for the Paddy Power Gold Cup."

She hasn't had that one run - last seen out at Warwick in February - and spent more time hurdling than chasing last season. Three of her five chase starts have been in mares' only races which I find off-putting but clearly this has been the target for some time and the stable is operating at a 26% win strike rate over the past fortnight.

On seasonal debut stablemate Hoe Joly Smoke ran well at this track over three miles one furlong when third behind Three Card Brag three weeks ago. 

Connections subsequently indicated they felt their charge didn't see the trip out that day as they'd done plenty of work with the horse and fitness wasn't the issue - the gelding has won over three miles but not beyond. I feel the step back to two and a half miles wouldn't necessarily suit - yet to win over the distance under rules - although the rain should help his stamina come into play.

Riskintheground won the Silver Trophy Handicap Chase on the New Course in April (Il Ridoto over ten lengths adrift in seventh) but his form is mostly on decent ground.

Thecompanysergeant finished two and threequarters lengths behind Jagwar in the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase at the Festival in March (Il Ridoto over 20 lengths adrift in twelfth). On a strict reading of that form he was closely matched with Jagwar but Gavin Cromwell's gelding hasn't been in the same form this summer and has drifted out to 9/1 with some layers.

Henry De Bromhead saddles two - Coming Up Easy and the mare Theatre Native.

Last year Lets Go Champ raced prominently before eventually finishing third for the yard; Coming Up Easy is a progressive front runner in a rich vein of form having won his last three starts in Ireland, the last a Listed handicap chase at Killarney. This one has won a Limerick maiden hurdle over two miles five on heavy ground and didn't appear to stay three miles behind Three Card Brag at Navan in January.

The booking of Sean Bowen for Theatre Native is interesting; she won the Aston Martin Mares' Novices' Handicap Chase on the New Course in April.

When the rain arrives, so does money for Venetia Williams trained runners - Hunter Legend has more than halved in price over the past 24 hours. He has won five of his 11 chase starts; this will be the first chase he has contested with more than eight runners in the field.

Hold-up ride Conyers Hill was sixth behind Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual in March and has yet to win over this trip while veteran Es Perfecto doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and finished fifth behind Caldwell Potter in the Jack Richards at the Festival in March (run on the New Course) - that day he lost three places after the final fence. 

The last horse older than nine to come home in front was Clear Cut in 1975.

While Bad has turned out to be rather good since blinkers were fitted for the first time in January - he has won three of his six chase starts - the arrival of rain looks a bit of a negative for Ben Pauling's runner. Lady Cricket, the last mare to come home in front, won the 2000 renewal as a six year old and since then only four horses have replicated the feat: Celestial Gold (2004); Exotic Dancer (2006); Johns Spirit (2013); and Ga Law (2002).

Stablemate of Thecompanysergeant The Other Mozzie finished a further two places behind Es Perfecto in seventh in the Jack Richards and hasn't won beyond two miles two furlongs while Issar D'Airy's form over two miles with Martator and Libberty Hunter reads well enough.

In summary, not the highest quality renewal of the race once known as the Mackeson Gold Cup and it's no real surprise to see connections decide to withdraw Jagwar - which has seen prices contract.

Hoe Joly Smoke and Coming Up Easy were the two each-way chances under consideration; Henry De Bromhead's charge gets the nod although the handicapper doesn't appear to have been overly lenient with a mark of 142.

Coming Up Easy is the each-way suggestion, currently 9/1 with bet365 and William Hill both paying four places, provided, of course, the card passes tomorrow morning's inspection. 

Footnote

I've spent a lifetime struggling to sort the wheat from the chaff and I realise it must be even harder for blog readers, so here's a helpful little pointer.

Last month, in a post entitled 'Hoping to come on for the run', I indicated Deep Cave was worth a second look in the Native River Handicap Chase at Chepstow. After winning the opening handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, trainer Christian Williams had said of his charge:

"It's probably taken us a long time to figure him out, but we thought he'd be better on nice ground and he's going to be very special over fences next year. He won a novice chase in France, so he's not a novice, but hopefully he'll be a Saturday horse."

In the event Deep Cave didn't run at Chepstow on account of the ground but he did contest the Weatherbys and Birdie Calendars Handicap Chase at Bangor on Wednesday - and won at odds of 11/1.

Did you bet it, PG?

Good Lord! No! Who ever backs a Saturday horse on a Wednesday?

Factual correction published 15.11.25 @ 17:15

Happy Diva was the last mare to win the race - in 2019 - not Lady Cricket as stated above. 

The 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Fifteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham); the going on the Old Course is described as good, good to soft in places.

Last season Ginny's Destiny won three chases at the track (one on the Old Course, two on the New) before finishing second behind Grey Dawning in the Turners Novices' Chase at the Festival - a mistake at the penultimate flight looked costly.

It's no surprise to see Paul Nicholls' charge priced up clear favourite but his profile suggests he may prefer more cut in the ground and, to date, the gelding has not won on seasonal debut - he missed his intended prep at Newton Abbot as the meeting was abandoned  

Stablemate Stage Star won this last year off a mark of 155 on seasonal debut and is the only favourite to have obliged in the past decade.

Ga Law won the 2022 renewal off 142 and tries to repeat the trick this year off 155. 

Jamie Snowden's charge ran well when second behind Grandeur D'Ame at Chepstow five weeks ago (Il Ridoto fifth, Editeur Du Gite ninth and Jetoile last of 10 runners). 

Il Ridoto finished fourth behind Ga Law in the 2022 renewal off 140 and third last year behind Stage Star off 144. 

Still only seven years old, this represents his second run after wind surgery in July. Although technically running from out of the handicap, Il Ridoto can compete from his correct mark courtesy of Freddie Gingell's three pound claim. 

Formerly trained by Gordon Elliott, Imagine cost 320,000 euros and has his first run for Harry Dereham; with just three starts over fences to his name, Imagine is the least experienced chaser in this field.

I'm a fan of  Protektorat who did me a favour when winning the Ryanair at the Festival in March. 

Dan Skelton's inmate has to give a minimum of 12 pounds to his opponents and, to my mind, really wants soft ground to be seen at his best. His participation means five race from out of the handicap: Hartur d'Arc; Madara; Il Ridoto; Straw Fan Jack; and Weveallbeencaught.

Lets Go Champ ran out of petrol in the closing stages of the Galway Plate in the summer, eventually finishing sixth - beaten eight and a half lengths - behind Pinkerton. The step back in trip here should help his cause and good ground suits.  

Not for the first time In Excelsis Deo's jumping was peppered with mistakes in the Galway Plate while Janadil fell at the first. Connections try first time blinkers on Janadil; the last horse older than nine years of age to come home in front was Clear Cut in 1975.

Of Hartur d'Arc trainer Gavin Cromwell says in this week's RP Weekender:

"He was very good in the Leinster National [3m 1f] and I'm not sure he stayed the trip in the Irish National [3m 5f] on his final run. He isn't a slow horse and we'll bring him back in trip for his first run back - he's in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham's November meeting and he could go back there at some point, maybe in December."

Irish trained runners don't have a strong record in the race; the last Irish trained horse to collect the spoils, Tranquil Sea in 2009, was the first Irish winner for 29 years.

Fugitif, fourth in this last year off 153, beat Il Ridoto a short head in the December Gold Cup four weeks later but, along with Ga Law, was subsequently pulled up behind Protektorat in the Ryanair.

Of those at fancy prices the most interesting is possibly Weveallbeencaught on his third run for Christian Williams. In first time cheekpieces this one finished half a length behind Lisnamult Lad over course and distance three weeks ago; enthusiasm is tempered by the fact he is 10 pounds 'wrong' at the weights.

It's a bold decision by Team Skelton to allow Protektorat to take his chance; his presence gives the handicap a rather lop-sided feel. In a race that more often than not goes the way of a young chaser, I've struggled to find an each-way wager. 

After some deliberation I've decided to take an each-way interest in Henry De Bromhead's lightly raced nine-year-old Lets Go Champ on this step back to two and a half miles; Mike O'Connor can claim three.

Lets Go Champ is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 11/1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes, both paying four places. 

Finally, it's early days, I know, but glancing at Sunday's Greatwood Hurdle (3.30 Cheltenham) northern raiders Cracking Rhapsody and Florida Dreams are closely matched on form and both are of interest at around 25/1. 

The 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Having worked alongside several academic members of staff at numerous learning institutions over the years, I developed what one might call a healthy scepticism for professors and what they had to say. 

Unfortunately, I was never fortunate enough to meet Professor Nick Crafts, a scourge of the Oxford bookmaking fraternity, who died on October 6th following a lengthy illness.

I quote from Professor Crafts' obituary published in The Times on Wednesday:

"Crafts took a market-based approach to the racetrack that appealed to his mathematical bent. He avoided steeplechasing in favour of flat races, and backed horses where the odds had dropped most in the week before the race, as an indicator that the cognoscenti were placing their money. He reckoned he could make 7 or 8 per cent a year on that basis, but he rarely if ever visited a course." 

Now, the horse whose odds appear to have dropped the most for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup is the well-named, Venetia Williams trained, Easy As That; 20/1 earlier in the week, the gelding is as low as 7/1 with some layers this evening.  The yard has sent out 10 winners from 23 runs in the past fortnight - a win strike rate of over 43%.

Of course, the salient point here is that the Paddy Power Gold Cup - once known as The Mackeson Gold Cup - is a steeplechase, run on the Old Course at Cheltenham over two and half miles.

Fourteen have been declared; the going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with further significant rain forecast.

Trends point to a chaser between six and nine years of age with previous course form carrying 11-00 or less; in the past decade only one winner has obliged on seasonal debut.

Since 2000 only three winners have carried more than 11-07: Cyfor Malta (11-09, 2002); Al Ferof (11-08, 2012); and Taquin Du Seuil (11-11, 2016). 

No favourite has obliged in the past ten years but seven winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

Irish runners don't have a strong record in the race. The last Irish trained winner, Tranquil Sea (2009), became the first Irish winner for 29 years.

Stage Star heads the market for tomorrow's renewal. 

Paul Nicholls' charge won the Turners Novices' Chase at the Festival in March with Notlongtillmay three and a quarter lengths adrift in second and Unexpected Party eight and a half lengths behind in fifth.

Quoting from the form summary for the Turners:

"Something of an unsatisfactory result in this Grade 1 novice, with the first two [Stage Star and Notlongtillmay] given an easy time up front and the big two in the market [Mighty Potter and Appreciate It] hanging separate ways all over Prestbury Park in the straight. It's hard to be positive over the form."

On the revised terms of this handicap, Stage Star, Notlongtillmay and Unexposed Party look closely matched.

Top weight The Real Whacker, unbeaten in three chase starts, won the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase over three miles plus at the Festival last time out. Connections are likely to have other targets in mind as the season progresses.

Fugitif has run well in competitive handicaps at the track in the past and finished second to Seddon in the Magners Plate at the Festival (Il Ridoto sixth). Gavin Sheehan will ride him prominently and connections have fitted cheekpieces for the first time, hoping to eke out further improvement.

At six years of age Il Ridoto is the youngest runner in the race. 

I saw this one win against battle-hardened handicappers over two miles at Newbury two years ago - a precocious effort. He finished fourth in this race last year, losing two places after the last flight. 

Questions were subsequently asked about his stamina at the trip but he appeared to answer the doubters when winning over the distance on the New Course at the end of January. Freddie Gingell claims five; will the partnership come up the hill tomorrow?

Angels Breath has only raced three times since 2019. Clearly talented, he has been difficult to train but was beaten less than five lengths in a hurdle race at the track three weeks ago. At around 8/1 the layers aren't taking too many chances with the Sam Thomas trained grey. 

Torn And Frayed won over this trip on the New Course in January 2022 but hasn't seen a racecourse since while Harper's Brook threw away a race he looked to have in the bag at Sandown in April, idling in front and then pulling himself up on the run-in. Both run from out of the handicap.

The Willie Mullins trained Authorized Art was second in the Galway Plate and then fourth in the Kerry National over three miles. 

Perhaps Final Orders is the more interesting of the two Irish runners. 

Gavin Cromwell's charge made eye-catching progress when sent chasing in Ireland and at one point was thought good enough to take his chance in the Arkle. In the end he finished fifth behind Maskada in the Grand Annual off a mark of 150; he goes off 148 tomorrow with Danny Gilligan claiming five. 

His fourth behind Al Dancer at Chepstow last month looks like a reasonable preparation - the third, Walk In Clover, finished third behind Triple Trade earlier today while the fifth, Elixir De Nutz, won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter eight days ago.  

Handler Gavin Cromwell has a good record with his runners at Cheltenham and last February said of his charge: "He's ultra-consistent and a particularly sound jumper." 

I'd like to think the step-up in trip will suit.

Whistleinthedark is unbeaten over fences but faces the hurly-burly of a race like this for the first time.

Of Black Gerry's five chase wins to date, the defeat of Frere D'Armes at Ascot in April reads well (Dolos fifth, Xcitations pulled up). Yard form is the concern, currently operating at 6%.

As always, a very competitive renewal. 

Unexpected Party is my idea of the winner. The Skelton yard hasn't been in quite the same flying form as 12 months ago but the grey has the right profile and his defeat of Knappers Hill (winner since) on seasonal debut looks good. 

With Unexpected Party currently vying for favouritism, in search of some value, I'm going to take a bit of an each-way punt on Final Orders instead, in the hope he can continue to progress in the manner he did last season.

Only for those with a particularly strong constitution, Final Orders is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with William Hill who are paying five places.

Professor Nick Crafts would never have approved.

Cheltenham November meeting 2022 - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Fifteen of the sixteen 48 hour declarations are set to face the starter for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham, Editeur Du Gite the non-runner) with the official going currently described as good.

The trends point to a chaser aged between six and nine with previous course form carrying 11-0 or less while a recent run is considered a definite bonus - Galahad Quest and Ga Law both fit the profile. 

However, as I explain below, I still haven't quite recovered from the events of 12 months ago. 

The Mouse Morris-trained French Dynamite heads the market; there's a strong suspicion he's ahead of his current handicap mark of 148.

Irish trained runners don't have a particularly strong record in this race - when Tranquil Sea won the 2009 renewal, Edward O'Grady's charge became the first Irish-trained winner for 29 years.

Ga Law picked up an injury in the 2021 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton and only returned to action three weeks ago at Aintree where he ran with credit to finish third behind Riders Onthe Storm. 

Described as a potential standard bearer for the yard in a recent Weekender Straight from the Stable article, Jamie Snowden's charge has never faced more than seven opponents in each of his six chase starts to date.

Stolen Silver hails from the in-form Sam Thomas yard (38% strike-rate in the past fortnight). The grey beat Simply The Betts and Coole Cody over the new course in April and as a result starts off a mark of 150. 

Paul Nicholls saddles five-year-old Il Ridoto. 

I was at Newbury this time last year when he won the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy by six and a half lengths, a precocious effort in the circumstances. 

When Nicholls sent out the five-year-old Caid Du Berlais to win this race in 2014 the gelding became the first five-year-old to win since Cyfor Malta in 1998.

Last year's renewal still holds painful personal memories.

Coole Cody, bidding to win the race for the second consecutive year, went into a clear lead from the third and, despite jumping right on occasions, was still at the head of affairs coming to the penultimate flight where Evan Williams' charge crashed out of contention. 

Midnight Shadow took up the running to claim the spoils with Galahad Quest fifth, Simply The Betts sixth and Deyrann Du Carjac eleventh.

As I wrote at the time, I'd had the winner pencilled in after his second behind Chatham Street Lad the previous December. However, at the very last minute I was ambushed by a bullish Alan King piece in the Weekender concerning Deyrann De Carjac on seasonal debut.

The handler reported his charge 'not badly treated off a mark of 137 judged on his best form'. Tempted by the 33/1 on offer, I jumped ship and backed the beast each-way; I'm sure I don't really need to relate what happened next.

Deyrann struggled to go the early pace and looked likely to be pulled up before staying on in the latter stages; he eventually finished eleventh but was somehow beaten less than ten lengths.

Four weeks later he finished fifth off 133 behind Coole Cody in the Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase over the new course.

In what was probably his best effort last season Deyrann finished fifth behind Vienna's Court in the New Year's Day Handicap Chase run over the new course (Simply The Betts second, Galahad Quest sixth, Coole Cody eleventh).  

Mr. King is certainly more circumspect this year: '...and it may be we're flying too high'. 

The horse is set to carry four pounds more than his long handicap weight on this occasion but this is offset by Harry Kimber's five pounds claim. 

I think Deyrann De Carjac is ahead of his current mark (126) - he's rated 132 over hurdles - but a similar case can be made for a few in this field. 

He appeared a little unlucky on seasonal debut to be caught in the shadow of the post at Wetherby a fortnight ago on ground softer than ideal. I'd like to think that he comes into the race in better form than last year and that the drying ground will also help eke out some further improvement.

This evening Alan King told the Racing Post:

"It was frustrating to see him caught close home at Wetherby but he's come out of the race fine and, as he will relish the prevailing good ground, we've decided to allow him to take his chance." 

In a race that always has plenty of pace, I'd want to see him hold a position in the early stages.

Deyrann Du Carjac is the each-way suggestion, currently priced 16/1 with Paddy Power who are paying one fifth the odds five places.

Cheltenham November meeting 2021 - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Last year, despite slipping badly after the fourth, Coole Cody went on to win an extraordinary renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup (run over the Old Course) with a display of jumping I described at the time as 'hairy'; that day Spiritofthegames finished second, Al Dancer third, Simply The Betts sixth with Aso the last of the 16 runners to complete in seventh.

Four weeks later Evan Williams' charge jumped right on occasions when finishing sixth behind Chatham Street Lad in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (run over the New Course) with Midnight Shadow second and Al Dancer ninth. He subsequently finished fourth behind The Shunter in the Paddy Power Plate at the Festival and fourth behind Manofthemountain over the New Course in April. 

Quite clearly dear old Coole Cody loves the place - as his prep last month he raced over the hurdle track and was headed by Guard Your Dreams on the run up the hill - and tomorrow he tries to repeat last year's victory off a mark four pounds higher. The layers rate him a 16/1 shot but even at the age of ten it would be foolish to discount his chance.

Twenty go to post; the going is described as good, good to soft in places. 

This evening there appears to be a three-way fight for favouritism between Lalor, Protektorat and Al Dancer.

Lalor last won a race in 2018, underwent wind surgery in July and has only recently moved from Kayley Woollacott to Paul Nicholls.

Protektorat won the SSS Super Alloys Novices' Chase over course and distance twelve months ago and last time out beat The Shunter at Aintree. Only three six-year-olds have come home in front in the past 20 years: Celestial Gold (2004); Exotic Dancer (2006); and Johns Spirit (2013). 

Sent off 5/1 favourite last year, Al Dancer finished four and a half lengths third behind Coole Cody off a mark of 154; he races off 149 tomorrow and has recently moved to Sam Thomas' yard.

Top weight Simply The Betts is another to have undergone wind surgery in the summer and then move to Paul Nicholls' yard. I think I'm correct in saying that the last top weight to oblige was Bradbury Star in 1994.

Galahad Quest had a pipe-opener at Wetherby a fortnight ago and bids to become the third five-year-old winner after Cyfor Malta (1998) and Caid Du Berlais (2014).

After a promising start Caribean Boy didn't really live up to expectations last season but Spiritofthegames has decent form at the track - second in the race last year and a head second behind Warthog in the 2019 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup - while Manofthemountain jumped well to win the Ballymore Silver Trophy in April (Coole Cody fourth). 

Five weeks ago Paint The Dream beat Manofthemountain nine and a half lengths in the John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase at Chepstow; on revised terms the former looks weighted to confirm that form but still looks to have his fair share of weight.

Here's the heads up - I've had Midnight Shadow pencilled in for this since that second behind Chatham Street Lad last December; his third behind Allmankind in the Old Roan last month looks an excellent preparatory run.

Going back to New Year's Day 2020, Sue Smith's charge somewhat fortuitously beat Paint The Dream one and a quarter lengths in the Dipper after Champ came a cropper two from home; the Alan King trained Deyrann De Carjac was a further threequarters of a length behind in third.

After reading Alan King's bullish note about Deyrann De Carjac in the Weekender, I looked through the form. Not to beat about the bush, he's had his problems in recent times but two years ago he won a Huntingdon novice chase with the likes of Pym, Whatmore and El Presente in arrears. 

The handler tells us his charge is 'not badly treated off 137 judged on his best form' and states:

"His preparation has been great and he seems to have put behind him the niggles that hindered him last season. He schooled on Monday and seems in good order. He is a good-ground horse..." 

At the time of writing Midnight Shadow is generally a 10/1 shot while Deyrann De Carjac is 33/1 - and Sky Bet are paying seven places.

Temptation, it's a terrible thing... Deyrann De Carjac is the each-way selection, 33/1 with Sky Bet.

To finish, a quick footnote for the fastidious...

The 'Straight from the Stable' feature in this week's RP Weekender features Donald McCain's Bankhouse stables in Cholmondeley, Cheshire. 

I don't know what the editors were up to but, untypically, the copy is littered with typographical errors and in places reads as though it was dictated over a mobile phone with poor reception:

Of See The Sea (7 b m Born To Sea - Shahmina):

"It could be a case that she could shoulder a race (sic) in a higher class race."

Of Bannixtown Glory (7 b m Fame And Glory - Me Auold Segosha):

"I understand Dan Skelton has Molly Ollys Wishes targeted at the same race, but it's grand a chance to add more black type to her broodmare page."

Of Chti Balko (9 br g Balko - Ina Scoop):

"A grand old horse who simply wants Haydock on very deep ground and when he comes ready and the conditions are right we will."

For the record, my own editor, a lugubrious individual who drones on incessantly about the old days, is usually to be found in a battered shed at the bottom of our garden, surrounded by empty bottles of craft ale.

Cheltenham November meeting 2020 - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Seventeen have been declared for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup - still referred to as 'The Mackeson' in our house - which is due off at 2.15. 

At the time of writing three share favouritism - Mister Fisher, Saint Sonnet and Simply The Betts - and all three make their seasonal debuts.

Back in March Samcro beat Melon a nose in an epic finish to the Marsh Novices' Chase with Mister Fisher a highly creditable fourth (beaten four and a quarter lengths) and Saint Sonnet seventh. 

Lady Cricket won the 2000 running at six years of age and since only three more six-year-olds have come home in front - Celestial Gold (2004); Exotic Dancer (2006); and Johns Spirit (2013). Since the inaugural running in 1960 only two five-year-olds have collected the spoils: Cyfor Malta (1998) and Caid Du Berlais (2014), trained by Paul Nicholls...  

I like Simply The Betts who has won four of his five chase starts to date, most recently beating Happy Diva, last year's winner of this race, one and a quarter lengths (Spiritofthegames sixth, Kauto Riko fourteenth and Siruh Du Lac falling two out) in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at the Festival. The handicapper has raised Harry Whittington's charge eight pounds for that effort.

Things fell right for the mare Happy Diva last year; she held Brelan D'As a neck on the line (Spiritofthegames and Siruh Du Lac both pulled up); 4/1 favourite Slate House looked sure to be in the mix but knuckled on landing at the penultimate flight. Happy Diva is now rated eight pounds higher, Slate House four pounds.

Al Dancer was well beaten in the Arkle but had a pleasing pipe-opener beating Master Tommytucker at Newton Abbot five weeks ago. The Twiston-Davies operation usually fires in the winners during the summer months; that hasn't been the case this year but the stable has been in better form recently.

Siruh Du Lac won the 2019 running of the Brown Advisory when trained by Nick Williams but, unfortunately, last year proved something of a write-off. The horse underwent wind surgery in July and was sent to the Pipe yard at the end of last month. The stable has a rich history in this event - Martin trained eight winners: Beau Ranger (1987); Challenger Du Luc (1996); Cyfor Malta (1998); Lady Cricket (2000); Shooting Light (2001); Cyfor Malta (2002); Celestial Gold (2004); and Our Vic (2005); David won the 2011 renewal with Great Endeavour. Could connections win with a horse having its first run for the yard? Siruh won't be inconvenienced by the forecast rain.

Spiritofthegames may have been pulled up in last year's race but four weeks later Dan Skelton's charge was beaten a head by Warthog in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at odds of 40/1. 

Of those at bigger prices, The Russian Doyen has only had two runs since finishing fourth in the 2019 running of the Close Brothers Novices' Chase; the Weekender reports that handler Colin Tizzard thinks this horse is well handicapped. 

The Tizzard horses have taken their time to come to hand this autumn but Sizing At Midnight looked to be in with every chance when coming to grief three out in the Badger Beers last weekend.

A change of scenery seems to have helped Coole Cody; regular contributor TW provides his ratings and makes the case for Evan Williams' charge below.

An ultra-competitive renewal with most layers paying five places and race sponsors Paddy Power, Sky Bet and William Hill all paying six. 

Working through the fifteen left on my shortlist, Siruh Du Lac and Slate House were the two that made it to the short shortlist. I note there has been money for Siruh Du Lac this evening and that one gets the nod.

Siruh Du Lac (9/1 with Paddy Power paying 6 places) is the each-way selection.

TW provides his ratings and selection:

RTG,Horse,WC
179,MISTER FISHER(IRE),15.3
184,COOLE CODY(IRE),9.9
177,SPIRITOFTHEGAMES(IRE),9.3
178,SIMPLY THE BETTS(IRE),9.1
177,SIRUH DU LAC(FR),8.5
178,AL DANCER(FR),7.5
172,HAPPY DIVA(IRE),7.1
179,SAINT SONNET(FR),6.6
179,DOMAINE DE L'ISLE(FR),5.4
179,SKY PIRATE(GB),5.2
177,FIDUX(FR),4.3
172,BRELAN D'AS(FR),4.1
175,KAUTO RIKO(FR),4
175,THE RUSSIAN DOYEN(IRE),2.4
173,SLATE HOUSE(IRE),0.9
167,ASO(FR),0.2
172,PINSON DU RHEU(FR),0.2

Mister Fisher has highest system win chance [15.3%] but odds of 11/2 provide zero edge so he’s not a bet for me.

Next up on the system is Coole Cody [CC] who has the top system form rating of 184. I’m not sure why owner Wayne Clifford decided to move him to Evan Williams but the change in scenery and the switch back to chasing appears to have chirped him up a bit!

CC has had 3 races this term; he won an ordinary novice chase easily in August before keeping a couple of Paul Nicholl horses honest in two subsequent efforts. In the middle race of the three he pulled well clear of Irish Prophecy who went on to be 2nd to El Presente [winner of last week’s Badger Beer] and then followed that good effort by comfortably winning a handicap at Taunton by 14 lengths on Thursday off a mark of 135 which I’m hoping suggest CC’ mark of 137 in this is a bit lenient.

Whilst CC may not have the right profile for a race like this [it is his first handicap chase] conditions should suit, he should cope if further rain gets into the ground, he has race fitness on his side and I’d like to think he can make the frame at odds of 20/1+.

The Open and Shut case

Champion Court is my idea of the winner of tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham but the trouble is a lot of other people have exactly the same idea - any value in the price disappeared a long time ago. Martin Keighley's gelding is a course and distance winner and has had this race as a target for some time.

Still, he has his share of weight (only one horse has carried more than 11-6 to victory in the past decade - last year's winner Al Ferof) while seven of the past ten winners were burdened with less than 11-0. The suspicion is something near the bottom of the handicap could prevail, although what the name of the beast might be is well beyond me - at the prices on offer, I won't play.

The novice chase at 1.15 is interesting. African Gold, second in the Albert Bartlett in March, is priced up favourite on his first try over fences but he faces opposition who will have no trouble taking advantage should the obstacles get in the way. White Star Line won the Guinness Kerry National at Listowel in September while both Shutthefrontdoor and Le Bec won impressively last time out. Sam Winner isn't totally discounted either although he fell on his two chase starts last season.

Shutthefrontdoor (3/1 with Ladbrokes this evening) jumped well at Aintree the last day and is the suggestion.

On Sunday Sire De Grugy goes in the Schloer. The manner in which he won a Class 2 chase at Chepstow three weeks ago would suggest connections will be disappointed if he can't follow up, although he's likely to be no price at all.

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012

Tomorrow's highlight on the second day of the Open meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.35) in which 19 are set to face the starter with Tanks For That declared a non-runner. Paul Nicholls saddles three; Walsh rides Al Ferof while Poquelin stands his ground which means four at the foot of the handicap have to carry more than their long handicap weight - the booking of the in-form Aidan Coleman for Questions Answered catches the eye.

The Pipe yard has a phenomenal record in this race. Martin has won eight runnings while son David chalked up his first success last year with Great Endeavour - it's no surprise to see Grands Crus, the yard's entry this year, at the head the market. In the past decade six of the winners have come from the top three in the market and three of those were sent off favourite.

Hunt Ball is a remarkable beast. Last November the gelding won a Class 5 handicap chase at Folkestone off a mark of 68; four months later he landed the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a rating of 142. Owner Mr Anthony Knott has been bullish in the build-up to this and has already backed his charge to win next March's Cheltenham Gold Cup to take £1 million out of the ring.

Nicky Henderson fields an interesting trio. McCoy rides the J P McManus owned mare Nadiya De La Vega in preference to Quantitativeasing while Geraghty is aboard the five-year-old Triolo D'Alene; since the race's inception in 1960 only one five-year-old has come home in front - Cyfor Malta in 1998. At Haydock's festival preview evening last March the handler put Triolo up as his best chance for the meeting - in the event the chestnut gelding finished well beaten by Hunt Ball but I'm guessing connections still hold this one in high regard and the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances by going as low as 10/1 in places.

I've always found Alan King's Walkon difficult to catch right but the grey has a racing weight, goes well fresh and writing in the Weekender the trainer rates his charge '...the best chance I have ever had of adding this great autumn contest to our cv.'

To this observer this renewal looks more competitive than the market might initially sugggest.

One hesitates to admit to having read Clare Balding's My Animals and Other Family but as a result I happen to know that Clare's English tutor at Newnham College, Cambridge would not be pleased to see me use the phrase 'the thing is' but, although Grands Crus may be the percentage call, the thing is the horse doesn't represent value and I still have a picture in my mind of the grey appearing to be bullied out of it three from home in the RSA last March. I'll chance Hunt Ball to collect the spoils (15/2 Stan James) and take out an each-way saver on Nadiya De La Vega (16/1 Coral, William Hill).

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2011

The highlight on the second day of the Open meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup - 20 face the starter at 2.35. With the Paul Nicholls trained top weight Poquelin standing his ground, eight of the field will be running from out of the handicap - I've concentrated my limited efforts on the animals set to carry their correct weight.

Although a 20/1 shot won this last year, in general terms the market has proved a reasonable guide - four favourites have obliged in the past decade. Poquelin's stablemate Mon Parrain heads the betting; formerly with Guillaume Macaire this five-year-old was impressive on his British debut winning a Sandown handicap chase but there were a few questions when he was run out of it over the National fences in the Topham next time. This evening Mon Parrain is 7/2 with most layers but both Ladbrokes and William Hill take a stand offering 5/1. Cyfor Malta (1998) is the only five-year-old to win this since 1960 and as Nicholls has never trained the winner of this race I'm going to oppose...

Cyfor Malta was trained by Martin Pipe and memories of the good old days came flooding back earlier this afternoon when son David recorded a 186.5/1 treble with Swing Bill (9/1), Decoy (13/2) and Grand Crus (6/4f). The yard regularly targets this meeting and Great Endeavour warrants respect in tomorrow's renewal.I fancied the grey for this last year but he came home a slightly disappointing sixth, failing to land a serious blow.

Course and distance winner The Giant Bolster, named after a Cornish legend, is a horse who has done this blog a favour or two in recent years. His jumping went off the boil last term (unseated in RSA Chase and fell at Aintree) but David Bridgwater has had jumping guru Yogi Breisner out to his charge during the summer. The trainer is on record as saying he thinks this could be a Gold Cup horse.

Another course and distance winner Wishfull Thinking will not want for lack of support but in the run-up the Hobbs yard haven't been sure in which race to run their charge and have recorded just 3 wins from 35 runs in the past fortnight.

Of the other runners, I'm guessing Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit (with Brendan Powell claiming ten pounds) is priced at 40/1 because the layers don't think he'll stay while 33/1 about Calgary Bay looks big given that he was beaten three and a half lengths by Wishfull Thinking here in January and is now 13 pounds better off.

In an ultra competitive event, I'll chance Wishfull Thinking (7/1 Betfred) with an each-way saver on The Giant Bolster (14/1 Coral). Best priced outsider - Calgary Bay (33/1).

I won't get involved in the finale but I hope to see Restless Harry win on his chase debut following a stunning performance in the John Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby last time; Viking Blond could be the one to benefit if the wheels were to come off.

Paddy Power Gold Cup day 2010

Twenty are set to go post in a competitive-looking renewal of tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (Rory Boy declared doubtful this evening), a race that throws up some strong statistical trends. Five favourites have won in the past ten years while the winner has come from the top three in the market on seven occasions; it's worth noting that eight of the last ten winners had won at Cheltenham previously and eight out of ten had also won over the distance of two and a half miles. In addition in the past decade five winners were aged seven and three aged six. Market leader Long Run is a precocious talent and according to David Pipe, trainer of second favourite Great Endeavour, a certainty. Long Run has plenty of weight to carry for one so young although the owner's son claims a handy five pounds - on balance 3/1 doesn't represent value and if things get tight at the business end, I'd be concerned a proper jock would gain the uppper hand, so I'm looking elsewhere. Great Endeavour is progressive and has a racing weight together with every chance although Tom Scudamore's column in Thursday's Times failed to mention this one by name; whatever happens here, the trainer tells us David Johnson's grey will have an entry for the Hennessy at the end of the month. Mad Max is a big horse with power to burn who travels up with the pace; several commentators fancy this one - 9/1 at William Hill may appeal to some betting each-way. In an open race, I'll side with Great Endeavour who looks to have the right profile.

In the opener I think Architrave is the best juvenile seen out so far this autumn but the layers tell us Nicky Henderson's French-bred gelding Titan De Sarti is the one to fear. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past decade with the winner coming from the first two in the betting on seven occasions. Two Kisses is a game filly who is likely to find one or two too good but on Racing Post adjusted ratings Zakeeta, another filly, is in with a shout and makes some appeal each-way at around 16/1. Architrave has to give weight to most of this field but I'm going to stick with him until he's beaten - Architrave gets the nod.

The 1.20 is trappy enough. Wayward Prince beat Colin Tizzard's Cannington Brook 11 lengths in a three mile novice hurdle at Aintree last April. The former has since collected a Class 3 novice chase at Huntingdon and is priced up favourite here while the latter is well regarded but didn't jump well in two tries over fences last autumn. Chicago Grey won here in October - Hell's Bay a remote fifth - and is respected but Tizzard will have a rough line through Hell's Bay (finished second behind the impressive Time For Rupert earlier today). I'll chance Cannington Brook's jumping (each-way) provided the layers offer 16/1 or more.

Finally, I've spent no time whatsoever on the 1.55 but I'd be interested in Razor Royale on the back of Twiston-Davies saying the gelding was the biggest threat in his yard to current Gold Cup holder Imperial Commander. This one won at this meeting last year although he had had a warm-up six weeks earlier; 12/1 is the price this evening.

Cheltenham Open meeting - Paddy Power Gold Cup

The rains have started and, according to the weather forecasters, they're set to continue through Saturday, accompanied by high winds for good measure. The result is it's all change at the head of the Gold Cup market where the sponsor's offer to refund losing single stakes if a Nicholls-trained horse wins really catches the eye. Over the past couple of days there has been a strong word for Nigel Twiston-Davies' Ballyfitz who heads the market this evening - William Hill offer 13/2 while Ladbrokes go 5/1. This one stays three miles, something of an advantage in the circumstances, but his jumping let him down once or twice last season; he may be best fresh but, on balance, I'm not convinced. Tranquil Sea comes over from Ireland, will handle underfoot conditions and has come in for plenty of support during the week - he attempts to take this prize back over the Irish Sea for the first time in 29 years. Andy Stewart, owner of Tatenen, has said he thinks his horse will be suited by the ground with the result the Nicholls-trained gelding is now as low as 13/2 with some layers. I note that he hasn't raced over this trip previously and that a five-year-old hasn't won this in the last ten years, the latter fact also tempering enthusiasm for Chapoturgeon. Writing in the Weekender Alan King says of Tarotino '... he would prefer decent ground and any rain wouldn't necessarily be to his advantage.' My Petra would have been the selection had it stayed dry but Nicky Henderson's note in a recent Racing Post Stable Tour article marks our card: 'Fast ground is essential for this mare.' Poquelin is another who wants top of the ground so I'm going out on a limb and will have an each-way dabble on Tartak at 18/1. His jumping when returning to action at Aintree three short weeks ago was desperate. His handler says he's schooled well since; on the balance of his form I'm prepared to forgive that effort. If he puts his best foot forward, that price will look big.

Barizan goes in the opener and is one of the best juvenile hurdlers seen out so far this season. In my opinion he was more impressive when winning at Market Rasen on his penultimate start. The last time, when he raced over this course and distance, his hurdling was nowhere near as fluent. Trumpstoo ran a bit green at Wetherby the other day - the tissue prices him at 10/1 which would be worth a second look while Olofi could be anything. I'll probably sit this one out.

Powerstation, third in the World Hurdle last March, has found the fences getting in the way in the interim. He reverts to the smaller obstacles in the 3.10 and may have a fitness edge over a number of his rivals. Philip Hobbs' decent claimer Giles Hawkins takes a valuable seven pounds off; I'll consider an each-way wager.

A disappointing turnout of just three for the novice chase at 1.20 but I wouldn't be for taking a short price about Pettifour on his first try over fences.

Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup

Twenty go to post for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup run over two and a half miles at Cheltenham. The market has proved a reasonable guide over the past ten years with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on seven occasions. Paul Nicholls' Silverburn is likely to start favourite but I have no qualms in opposing him on grounds of value. In addition I think there's a possibility he'll have trouble handling the cut and thrust of this big field. Nicky Henderson fields Barbers Shop and Fleet Street. I'm put off by the fact that this race was clearly plan B for Barbers Shop; if he wins, expect the press to send plenty of deferential comment the way of the owner, Her Majesty. Imperial Commander is respected; of the horses at the top of the market, for me the Twiston-Davies inmate makes most appeal. Alan King's Ouzbeck has made striking progress this autumn and beat a number of tomorrow's rivals last time out. He's been raised a hefty-looking eleven pounds for that victory and the soft ground might not suit. Since finishing second behind Ouzbeck, Yes Sir has gone on to win but he looks another who would prefer better ground. The one I like with a racing weight is Andy Turnell's Bible Lord. This horse was third behind Ouzbeck over course and distance on his first run of the season; he's entitled to improve for that and at the weights has fair prospects of reversing the placings. Going through his form of last season, if I have a reservation, it's that his jumping can let him down a little when things hot up at the business end of a race. Priced up at 11/1 he appeals as a decent each-way wager in this ultra-competitive handicap.