A curtailed post on Gold Cup day to look at tomorrow's Midlands Grand National (3.35); the going at Uttoxeter is described as heavy, soft in places.
With other major sporting events postponed or cancelled on account of the coronavirus pandemic, you feel it's only a matter of time before racing is affected.
Ladbrokes Trophy winner De Rasher Counter stands his ground; Ben Jones can claim three but the top weight still has to give away a minimum of ten pounds to his rivals over this marathon four mile two furlong trip. Petite Power, Sheneededtherun, Very First Time and Financial Outcome all contest this from out of the handicap.
Christmas In April won the Sussex National at Plumpton in January and the Devon National at Exeter last month and as a result is now rated 14 pounds higher. I'm just concerned this will may well prove one trip to the well too many.
Truckers Lodge is priced up favourite on the back of his second behind Potters Corner (won this last year off 135) in the Welsh National; the handicapper has raised Paul Nicholls' charge just one pound for that effort but this trip is the best part of four furlongs further.
Prime Venture was fourth in that Welsh National, beaten just over four lengths, and the handicapper has dropped Evan Williams' charge one pound. Fourth in this race last year off 139 he tries this time off 135 and connections fit blinkers for the first time. You can see why this one makes plenty of appeal but at 7/1 now the value has disappeared.
Joe Farrell would prefer better ground while the mare Sheneededtherun has really improved for a move of yard but this represents a step up in class.
I'm considering two at an each-way price: Dominateur and Just Your Type.
The former is unexposed; in the RP Weekender [11-15.12.19] Oliver Sherwood said:
"I think he can make up into a nice staying chaser and could be worth following."
Just Your Type finished second behind Bigirononhiship over an extended four miles at Kelso in December. He never really travelled next time in the Towton at Wetherby and has since undergone wind surgery; if that surgery has helped the cause, 14/1 (five places) looks tempting. Connections have ditched the tongue-tie tried in the Towton.
Along with Captain Drake (unseated twice in last three runs), Just Your Type is joint top-rated on Racing Post ratings.
It's certainly a risky wager but it may just be the last one for quite some time...
For those with money to burn after Cheltenham Just Your Type (14/1) is the each-way suggestion; Sky Bet pay one fifth the odds five places.
Showing posts with label midlands national. Show all posts
Showing posts with label midlands national. Show all posts
Friday, March 13, 2020
Friday, March 15, 2019
Midlands Grand National 2019
A somewhat curtailed post following a hectic week at Cheltenham...
Twenty runnners have been declared for tomorrow's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter due off at 3.35; the going is currently described as soft with strong winds and heavy rain forecast - an inspection has been called for eight o'clock tomorrow morning.
Only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory in the past ten years - Synchronised in 2010 and Firebird Flyer in 2016; Ms Parfois and American at the top of the market are set to carry 11-4 and 11-12 respectively.
Last year's winner Regal Flow became the first horse older than nine to come home in front since Lucky Lane obliged in 1995.
A key piece of form is The Last Fling Handicap Chase run at Haydock on December 30th last year. Chef D'Oeuvre beat Back To The Thatch two and threequarter lengths that day with Dell'Arca a further twelve lengths adrift in third.
Chef D'Oeuvre was raised eleven pounds for that victory and went up another four when finishing third (from three pounds out of the handicap) behind Robinsfirth and Ramses De Teillee in Haydock's Grand National Trial.The form reads well and the horse has clearly benefited from a change of stable but inevitably the handicapper has had his say.
Both Back To The Thatch and Dell'Arca haven't run since - the former is up six pounds, the latter down one pound. Back To The Thatch re-opposes Chef D'Oeuvre nine pounds better off for two and threequarter lengths.
On his seasonal debut for new connections Chef D'Oeuvre was beaten over 21 lengths at this track by Crosspark.
Crosspark won the Eider three weeks ago with Kilkishen six and a half lengths adrift in fourth, Raz De Maree seventh and Potters Corner falling two from home when appearing to hold every chance.
Potters Corner has been raised three pounds for that effort; he is clearly a talented individual but the fences seem to be getting in the way - Christian Williams' charge has failed to complete in three of his last four chase starts.
Arthur's Gift is relatively unexposed while Ballydine boasts good form behind Lake View Lad, Carole's Destrier and particularly behind Wakanda in the Peter Marsh at Haydock - beaten under five lengths that day, he may have finished much closer but for a bad blunder three from home.
Dawson City, seventh behind Elegant Escape in the Welsh National, collected the Devon National at Exeter three weeks ago and should certainly having little trouble staying the trip but now looks high enough in the handicap.
Of those at bigger prices Smooth Stepper did me a favour roughly 12 months ago when winning at Kelso; the balance of his form suggests he struggles to stay beyond three and a half miles. Prime Venture has not won over fences in five starts but has been pitched in against the likes of Bags Groove, Kilbricken Storm and Ramses De Teillee.
It's possible to make a case for several in the field. Comments from connections have led me to Back To The Thatch who has the right profile and comes to this a fresher horse than those who ran in the Eider.
At the time of writing William Hill offer 11/1 and pay one fifth the odds seven places.
Back To The Thatch is the each-way selection with William Hill.
Twenty runnners have been declared for tomorrow's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter due off at 3.35; the going is currently described as soft with strong winds and heavy rain forecast - an inspection has been called for eight o'clock tomorrow morning.
Only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory in the past ten years - Synchronised in 2010 and Firebird Flyer in 2016; Ms Parfois and American at the top of the market are set to carry 11-4 and 11-12 respectively.
Last year's winner Regal Flow became the first horse older than nine to come home in front since Lucky Lane obliged in 1995.
A key piece of form is The Last Fling Handicap Chase run at Haydock on December 30th last year. Chef D'Oeuvre beat Back To The Thatch two and threequarter lengths that day with Dell'Arca a further twelve lengths adrift in third.
Chef D'Oeuvre was raised eleven pounds for that victory and went up another four when finishing third (from three pounds out of the handicap) behind Robinsfirth and Ramses De Teillee in Haydock's Grand National Trial.The form reads well and the horse has clearly benefited from a change of stable but inevitably the handicapper has had his say.
Both Back To The Thatch and Dell'Arca haven't run since - the former is up six pounds, the latter down one pound. Back To The Thatch re-opposes Chef D'Oeuvre nine pounds better off for two and threequarter lengths.
On his seasonal debut for new connections Chef D'Oeuvre was beaten over 21 lengths at this track by Crosspark.
Crosspark won the Eider three weeks ago with Kilkishen six and a half lengths adrift in fourth, Raz De Maree seventh and Potters Corner falling two from home when appearing to hold every chance.
Potters Corner has been raised three pounds for that effort; he is clearly a talented individual but the fences seem to be getting in the way - Christian Williams' charge has failed to complete in three of his last four chase starts.
Arthur's Gift is relatively unexposed while Ballydine boasts good form behind Lake View Lad, Carole's Destrier and particularly behind Wakanda in the Peter Marsh at Haydock - beaten under five lengths that day, he may have finished much closer but for a bad blunder three from home.
Dawson City, seventh behind Elegant Escape in the Welsh National, collected the Devon National at Exeter three weeks ago and should certainly having little trouble staying the trip but now looks high enough in the handicap.
Of those at bigger prices Smooth Stepper did me a favour roughly 12 months ago when winning at Kelso; the balance of his form suggests he struggles to stay beyond three and a half miles. Prime Venture has not won over fences in five starts but has been pitched in against the likes of Bags Groove, Kilbricken Storm and Ramses De Teillee.
It's possible to make a case for several in the field. Comments from connections have led me to Back To The Thatch who has the right profile and comes to this a fresher horse than those who ran in the Eider.
At the time of writing William Hill offer 11/1 and pay one fifth the odds seven places.
Back To The Thatch is the each-way selection with William Hill.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Midlands Grand National 2011
After Long Run's historic win at Cheltenham earlier today, the racing roadshow moves on with the Midlands Grand National the feature at Uttoxeter tomorrow. 18 runners face the starter where the going is described as soft, good to soft in places. I'm guessing the ground will be pretty tacky as it has been drying out for a few days now. Top weight Synchronised won this last year but carries another seven pounds on this occasion and has to give a minimum of 13 pounds to the rest of the field - it looks a big ask. Synchronised's victory apart, in the previous eight runnings the biggest weight the winner has shouldered is 10-9; half the field have to carry more than their allotted handicap weight but in 2002 The Bunny Boiler was nine pounds out of the handicap when winning at odds of 5/1. Paul Nicholls' Tricky Trickster has had a breathing operation since we last saw him in November and has the Aintree National as his target. Companero took the Eider at Newcastle three short weeks ago in atrocious ground (Belon Gale and Ballyfoy pulled up) - he's 11 now and may not have had sufficient time to recover. I like Richard Lee's diminutive gelding Le Beau Bai; ideally he needs more rain in the ground and does find himself getting detached in his races but at 12/1 with Skybet he's worth an each-way wager in a difficult-looking event - the majority of layers are offering a quarter the odds four places.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Midlands Grand National anyone?
After a bookies' week at Cheltenham (review to follow in a separate post), there's the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter tomorrow for those with any cash left. Somebody who should have plenty of fifties in his back pocket is Nigel Twiston-Davies after the yard finished the last day of this year's Festival with a 748/1 treble courtesy of Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup (7/1), Baby Run, ridden by son Sam Twiston-Davies, in the Foxhunter Chase (9/2jf) and Pigeon Island in the finale (16/1). With the stable in such fine form, I had this idea to back one of theirs in the Uttoxeter feature but guess what - they don't have one entered.
Eighteen have been declared; the going is currently described as good, good-to-soft in places, but the way the rain is falling in Coventry at the moment I'm guessing it'll ride soft on the day. In the last ten years the race has been run eight times with the winner never carrying more than ten stones nine and on each occasion being aged between seven and nine. Of the eighteen, the four I've concentrated on are the Philip Hobbs pair Ballydub and Mark The Book, Sherwoods Folly and Irish raider Inoma James. Hobbs, in fine form at the Festival, fields three, the other one being Kornati Kid who is highly regarded but didn't appear to take the preliminaries at all well in the Welsh National the last time - his chance had gone before the start. The trainer picks out Ballydub in first time blinkers as his pick of the three. Sherwoods Folly has had a decent break coming to this and makes some appeal off a light weight while the chance of Inoma James is more obvious - he won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January on heavy ground. Irish-trained runners have a good record in this race, having won three times since 2002 - I'll take an each-way interest in Inoma James at around 9/1.
Of those near the head of the handicap Le Beau Bai looks on the small side for a big weight while Synchronised was declared for the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Festival on Wednesday but was then withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground; underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here.
Eighteen have been declared; the going is currently described as good, good-to-soft in places, but the way the rain is falling in Coventry at the moment I'm guessing it'll ride soft on the day. In the last ten years the race has been run eight times with the winner never carrying more than ten stones nine and on each occasion being aged between seven and nine. Of the eighteen, the four I've concentrated on are the Philip Hobbs pair Ballydub and Mark The Book, Sherwoods Folly and Irish raider Inoma James. Hobbs, in fine form at the Festival, fields three, the other one being Kornati Kid who is highly regarded but didn't appear to take the preliminaries at all well in the Welsh National the last time - his chance had gone before the start. The trainer picks out Ballydub in first time blinkers as his pick of the three. Sherwoods Folly has had a decent break coming to this and makes some appeal off a light weight while the chance of Inoma James is more obvious - he won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January on heavy ground. Irish-trained runners have a good record in this race, having won three times since 2002 - I'll take an each-way interest in Inoma James at around 9/1.
Of those near the head of the handicap Le Beau Bai looks on the small side for a big weight while Synchronised was declared for the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Festival on Wednesday but was then withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground; underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here.
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