The 2026 Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton

I'm struggling to recall a one and a half mile novice stakes on the all weather that has generated quite so many column inches. Earlier this evening, under the Southwell floodlights and to the roar of a bumper crowd, Constitution Hill won nine and a half lengths. Where next?

Thirteen have been declared for tomorrow's Ladbrokes Trophy (3.35) run over three miles at Kempton Park; the going is described as good to soft, soft in places.

Katate Dori won last year's renewal 15 lengths and goes off a mark 11 pounds higher this year. 

Sam Thomas' charge is consistent but hasn't won since; on New Year's Day he was headed in the final 110 yards, as they say, beaten half a length by Herakles Westwood at Cheltenham. The handicapper raised him one pound for his trouble.

Kdeux Saint Fray was sent off 7/2 favourite for the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham four weeks ago, a race won by stablemate Jordans Cross. He appeared outpaced off the home turn but stayed on well to claim fourth. 

He steps up to three miles for the first time tomorrow; with just four chase starts to his name, I'm happy to look elsewhere. The last six-year-old to come home in front was Gloria Victis in 2000.

On seasonal debut Hoe Joly Smoke finished third behind Three Card Brag over three miles one furlong at Cheltenham in October, losing second place on the run to the line. 

After that run it became clear connections thought that, even though he stays a bare three miles, he was probably better over a shorter trip. 

The gelding finished third behind stablemate Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November and then fifth behind runaway winner Glengouly in the December Gold Cup. Given a break, he's back to three miles here, sporting first-time cheekpieces to help the cause.

The Doyen Chief isn't always clean at his fences and was all out to hold Your Darling a neck over course and distance six weeks ago, Soul Icon fourth. At Bangor in November this one came to the last in front but made a mistake - Tom Bellamy lost an iron - and then appeared to be outstayed by Deep Cave.

Chance Another One is one of two Irish raiders for Emmet Mullins. 

He beat Viroflay (runs in 4.05 race) over course and distance in November and runs off a mark seven pounds higher here.

Stablemate Rising Dust has won five of his last six starts and steps up in class. Sean Bowen rides but I'd imagine Donagh Meyler has had the pick of the pair.

Lookaway looked to have a fight on his hands at this track last time but Old Cowboy looked as though he had been shot when ploughing through the penultimate flight, leaving Neil King's charge to come hone 24 lengths clear of Leader in The Park. 

After that run the trainer immediately nominated this race as the target, confident the gelding will stay the trip. Back in 2021 he beat thorough stayer Collectors Item in an Irish point-to-point.

A slight digression if I may. 

Old Cowboy was subsequently reported to have bled from the nose that day; in his analysis Nick Luck told Racing TV viewers he thought Old Cowboy would have won comfortably had he stood up. Gary Moore's charge comes with risks attached but he goes again in the Pendil at 2.25 and could be considered overpriced at 12/1.

Deep Cave was deeply disappointing when fifth off top weight in the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster last month.

Prior to that he'd won at Bangor and then pinched a race from Leave Of Absence at Ascot. 

Back in 2022 Christian Williams sent out the mare Win My Wings to win the Eider Chase at Newcastle and then some 30 minutes later Cap Du Nord to win this race. The handler harbours high hopes for Deep Cave but a shot at the Grand National will have to wait for the time being.

Henry's Friend finished five lengths behind Deep Cave at Ascot in December. The pair look closely matched on revised terms although I tend to think Ben Pauling's charge shows his best form at Ascot.

Soul Icon was only beaten two lengths by The Doyen Chief last time but his form is over shorter trips while Boombawn tries three miles for the first time, as does Leader In The Park, although Ben Pauling's inmate won a three mile point-to-point three years ago.   

Veteran Gustavian likes to go from the front but at 11 years of age is past his prime.

A number in this field have questions to answer over the trip. 

I'm going to give another chance to Deep Cave who was disappointing at Doncaster but had looked progressive before; stable form would be a concern.

Deep Cave is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 12/1 with Sky and Paddy Power, both paying four places.

Cold comfort

As a belated Father's Day present, a few weeks ago I was given tickets to tomorrow's Classic Chase meeting at Warwick; unfortunately that particular avenue of enjoyment has been scuppered by the cold weather -  along with the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle Day meeting at Kempton and the William Hill Medieval Raceday at Wetherby.

The feature from the Wetherby card, the Towton Novices' Chase, has been expeditiously transferred to the replacement meeting at Ffos Las which still has to pass an inspection tomorrow morning. 

The Met Office reports overnight temperatures at the Welsh track will remain above freezing while an update on Turftrax indicates the course was 'raceable' at 11.30 this morning.

Nonetheless, such is my disappointment at the abandonment of the Warwick fixture, I can barely summon the strength required to open a form book, never mind identify an each-way wager that makes any appeal.

Rosscahill and One Big Bang dominate the market for the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle (2.58). 

The former looked beaten after the last last time but stayed on powerfully to deny Ben Solo and tries this new trip on his first run in a handicap; the latter, second behind Shoot First at Haydock on his penultimate start, looked held on 127 at Cheltenham - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Soft ground at Ffos Las saps like nowhere else - Rosscahill, Mahland, Up For Parol, Stolen Silver, Balkardy, and Classic Concorde have all previously won at the track.

Mel Rowley's team are in good form but the price about Mahland has disappeared.

Stolen Silver, rated 154 over fences, goes off 141 and held five day entries for the Lanzarote and the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This looks less competitive but the Sam Thomas trained grey jumped the Aintree hurdles as though they were fences nine weeks ago.

Up For Parol held the same five day entries as Stolen Silver, with the Lanzarote the probable target, Jamie Snowden's charge having finished sixth, third and thirteenth in the last three renewals of the Kempton showpiece.

On seasonal debut Up For Parol came home second, 18 lengths behind runaway winner Henri The Second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Sandown five weeks ago, with West To The Bridge a further 11 lengths adrift in fourth.

Classic Concorde finished ninth behind Val Dancer in the Welsh National last time but is rated six pounds higher over hurdles.

Madaket is reported to have schooled well over fences; Micheal Nolan reported the gelding 'stopped quickly' in a Chepstow handicap hurdle 15 days ago. 

Alan De Banks and Balkardy both race from out of the handicap. 

The former makes his handicap debut for a yard that hasn't sent out a winner for 61 days while the latter has struggled over the larger obstacles. Handler Evan Williams recently said of his charge [RP Weekender Straight from the Stable 26-30.12.24]:

"He's not very big and fences get in his way sometimes, but he's very genuine. He's a joy to have around the place and I hope he can carry on giving a good account of himself."

When I learnt of the replacement activity organised as a substitute for my Father's Day trip to the Warwick races, any enthusiasm I might have mustered for a Ffos Las fancy sapped straight out of my shoes - a walk around Kenilworth's Castle & Abbey Trail.

I'll keep my powder dry for another day. 

The 2024 Coral Trophy at Kempton

After the recent 'Last man standing wins' debate in the Racing Post it will be interesting to see how many complete the course in tomorrow's Eider Chase (2.08 Newcastle) which will be run over four miles one and a half furlongs on heavy ground - thoughts go back to Companero beating Giles Cross 30 lengths in the 2011 renewal with Morgan Be the only other finisher of the 12 who set off.

Major Dundee would be of interest in the Eider - provided he brought his A game to the table (third in the 2022 Scottish Grand National; won the 2023 Midlands Grand National). 

Alan King's charge certainly didn't do that in the Classic Chase at Warwick six weeks ago. The gelding ran a full-blown stinker in a first-time visor and was one of the first beaten; he also happened to be my selection for the race.

Writing in the RP Weekender the following week Mr King seemed to imply that maybe The Major wasn't quite as keen as he had once been but the handler appears a tad more upbeat in this week's edition of the same paper:

"He seems in good order at home and he'll retain the visor he wore last time out." 

At the time of writing he's 10/1 with bet365, Coral and Betfred who are all paying four places but I had my fingers burnt last tine so I'm off to Kempton instead where, I have no doubt, my selection in the Coral Trophy will take a leaf out of Major Dundee's book and substantially raise the temperature applied to my digits.

The going at Kempton is described as soft, with the lake bend heavy.

The Dan Skelton trained course and distance winner Flegmatik, favourite through the week, has just been replaced by Blackjack Magic at the head of the market. 

Ideally Flegmatik would want better ground. 

Blackjack Magic, one of three runners for Anthony Honeyball, won the Badger Beer at Wincanton in the autumn, with stablemates Forward Plan sixth and Sam Brown pulled up. The three do battle once again tomorrow; Blackjack Magic sports first-time blinkers as on his two subsequent runs he made significant jumping errors at the business end of the race.

Forward Plan has shown his very best form on good ground while 12-year-old Sam Brown carries top weight and appears to have been revitalised by the application of a visor. On his penultimate start he won the Veterans' Final at Warwick and then finished less than 10 length behind Shishkin in the Denman Chase at Newbury.

Bowtogreatness shaped as though this return to three miles would suit when fifth behind Ginny's Destiny over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham four weeks ago. 

Il Ridoto races beyond two miles four and a half furlongs for the first time; Lord Baddesley tries further than two miles six and a half furlongs for the first time. 

The booking of Rex Dingle for Lord Baddesley suggests this one is the main hope for the Chris Gordon yard which is in sparkling form - 5 wins from 12 runs in past fortnight - in marked comparison to earlier in the season.  

Having won twice at Kempton the mare Tweed Skirt clearly likes the place but is another who has, to date, shown her best form on better ground.

Veteran Al Dancer has never won beyond two miles five.

Another veteran, Cap Du Nord, won the 2022 renewal of this race off a mark of 127 and popped up at Ascot this time last year off the same mark. 

He hasn't won since and is now officially rated 118 over fences. He's eight pounds wrong at the weights but Tristan Durrell claims three; it wouldn't be wise to completely write off a revival.

Killer Kane was fifth in this race last year (Flegmatik second, Cap Du Nord ninth); he raced from out of the handicap that day yet carries 10-7 tomorrow. Following wind surgery in December, he was beaten by the well-regarded Highstakesplayer and Iconic Muddle over course and distance 15 days ago. 

Unanswered Prayers underwent wind surgery last month having finished behind Tweed Skirt over course and distance the day after Boxing Day. 

Lord Baddesley's stablemate came to grief at the final flight at Ascot in November in a race won by Victtorino and was then hampered by a faller just after the last over the same course and distance three weeks later. 

He has been backed down from 25/1 earlier and is now as low as 17/2 in a place. 

Freddie Gingell was initially booked to ride Unanswered Prayers but the five pound claimer has been re-routed to Chepstow where he rides Monmiral. 

Paul Nicholls' charge reverts to hurdles in a Pertemps qualifier (3.08) after struggling in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham and a novice chase at Musselburgh. The first four home qualify for the Pertemps Final at the Festival and I'm guessing the plan is to get qualified.

 I digress.

This isn't a good race for favourites; I'm going to side with one who has form over the trip on soft ground and course and distance winner Killer Kane fits the bill. 

His main target is the Topham at Aintree in the spring - he finished third in the race last year - but I'm hoping he can show up well here on his second run after wind surgery.

Killer Kane is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally at the time of writing with most layers paying four places. 

Christmas capers...

This year the Christmas cranberry sauce has been made using four tablespoonsful of 2015 late bottled vintage port - Graham's, of course - and now, well, I'm obliged to polish off the rest. 

That's no particular hardship, you understand, as I do enjoy the odd snifter at this time of year but, on sober reflection, I should point out it does very little to help with those tricky Christmas wagers.

Rain has certainly arrived - the local parade of shops resembled a scene from Blade Runner earlier today - and apparently 18mm of the wet stuff fell at Kempton where the going for the King George meeting is now described as soft.

Three of the four races to be televised from the track have just five declared and the King George nine.

From a betting perspective the small fields don't generate much interest although 16/1 about Royal Pagaille in the main event might look fair value should the going deteriorate further.

I've started work on the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow, Tuesday). 

The trends seem to point to a horse aged between six and eight years of age that has previous form at the track and is burdened with a light(ish) weight. 

Ask Me Early fits the bill but in terms of quality this year's race would struggle to compete with the majority of renewals over the past ten years. 

At the moment I'm considering Fortescue at a bigger price (20/1) as I believe connections have had this as a target. 

After a pipe opener in a Bangor novice hurdle in November, Henry Daly's charge raced in rear in the Becher Chase at Aintree three weeks ago and looked one of the first beaten; however, he made eye-catching late headway from three out to eventually finish fourth, beaten ten lengths.

Granted, he has his share of weight (11-6) but, if confirmed, regular pilot Hugh Nugent can claim three, and form last season behind Five Star Getaway and Royal Pagaille reads well.

I'll try to post a preview of this race after racing on Boxing Day. 

In the meantime, I think it's time for another glass...

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

The rescheduled 2020 Welsh Grand National

Precautionary 8.00am inspections have been called for all three of tomorrow's meetings - at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincanton.

The rescheduled Welsh Grand National (3.10) is the highlight at Chepstow with 18 set to face the starter. 

It's easy to see why the layers have Secret Reprieve clear favourite, although 7/2 about this comparatively inexperienced sort in a race of this nature looks extremely short. 

Writing in the Weekender [06-10.01.21] Evan Williams says:

"I've long thought of him as the ideal sort for a Welsh National and my aim this season was to get him in the race at as near to ten stone as possible. He won the Welsh National trial by an impressive 12 lengths at Chepstow last month...

"I was unsure when it was rescheduled to this weekend if the conditions would remain the same [keeping their old handicap marks] but thankfully they do as he does look to be particularly well in at the weights [runs off 134 but new mark is 142]. I think he has a huge chance of winning the big one..."

In my original preview I decided to take an each-way interest in Secret Reprieve's stablemate Prime Venture and I'm going to stick with that selection. A bit of a quirky individual, he finished fourth last year (Truckers Lodge second, Yala Enki third, The Three Amigos fifth) and turns up this time in better form having broken his duck over fences at Sedgefield in November; the trainer reports that victory has really helped boost the gelding's confidence.

The form of those behind in the trial run over two miles seven and a half furlongs on December 5th is of interest; The Two Amigos chased home Secret Reprieve with Bobo Mac third and Captain Drake fifth.

The Two Amigos likes to race prominently and in last year's renewal was still chasing winner Potters Corner two out before eventually finishing fifth; I just wonder whether connections might try to tweak the tactics a tad this time.

As I indicated in the original preview I'd expect Bobo Mac to improve and the additional 13 days since the trial will help his cause.

Captain Drake wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but makes some appeal (to me, anyway) of those at bigger prices. Quoting Harry Fry in his Straight from the Stable feature (Weekender 23-27.12.20):

"He was in and out over fences last season, winning at Exeter before finishing runner-up [behind Truckers Lodge] in the Midlands National, but he had a couple of unseats in between.

"I was delighted when he won first time out this season when I ran him back over over hurdles at Uttoxeter. He did not travel or jump well at Cheltenham next time but he ran better at Chepstow...

"Hopefully that will have done his confidence some good as there were definitely signs of improvement. I am still keen to go for the Welsh National as the trip and ground will be fine." 

Vieux Lion Rouge is also eight pounds well in after winning the Becher Chase last time but regular pilot Tom Scudamore prefers Ramses De Teillee who finished second to Elegant Escape in the 2018 renewal. 

Prime Venture is the each-way suggestion, quoted at 12/1 with William Hill this evening who pay five places.

The closest I'm likely to get to Lanzarote in the next 18 months is the Lanzarote Hurdle (3.30 Kempton); if Chepstow were to fail its early morning inspection, I was considering taking a chance on the weather in Surrey. 

I thought The White Mouse had a small squeak in the race and I nearly fell into a trap. Some basic spadework confirmed a gnawing suspicion - I couldn't find a mare that had come home in front in over 30 years. Well cheesed off!

Boxing Day dilemmas

Tis the afternoon of the night before Christmas and the form books lie still...

No traditional Christmas Day post this year; here's an insight into the cogitations likely to be to the forefront of my mind while pulling the Christmas crackers.

An intriguing renewal of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, a race that doesn't make an awful lot of appeal from a punting perspective. 

After inflicting defeat on Altior for the first time, Cyrname turned up a short priced favourite for last year's running but flopped badly, stablemate Clan Des Obeaux taking full advantage; Cyrname has been campaigned differently this term and on official ratings is the one to beat. 

The Henderson camp has stumped up the £5,000 fee required to supplement Santini; connections have done their sums and calculated that a profit will be realised if their charge finishes in the first five. 

Lostintranslation didn't shine in the race last year and underwent wind surgery immediately afterwards. A fine third in the Gold Cup in March, he disappointed in the Betfair Chase at Haydock; Robbie Power thinks his ride is better on better ground.

The Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby 2.05) has piqued interest, primarily because only three of the nine declared have shown noteworthy form over three miles or further: Snow Leopardess (the grey mare raised nine pounds after catching Commodore on the line at Haydock five weeks ago); Wandrin Star (raised four pounds after finishing a neck behind Quarenta at Ascot); and The Dutchman (raised five pounds after being caught on the line at Haydock last time). 

To date Canelo has been well beaten on two previous attempts at the trip but trainer Alan King thinks this step back up will suit. 

Windsor Avenue appears to have prompted a difference of opinion with Paddy Power offering 7/1 while William Hill go 10/1; the gelding is not lightly dismissed. Brian Ellison's charge underwent wind surgery in January and has been given plenty of time to recover. His chance in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham last time disappeared at the start and that effort is forgiven. Quoting Ellison in a 'Straight from the Stable' feature in the Weekender 30.09.20 - 04.10.20:

'If you could see his work at home it screams out class and the work last week was very impressive. He should get three miles...'

Stablemate Definitly Red won the 2016 running off 141.

This time last year, following Not So Sleepy's nine length victory in the Betfair Exchange Trophy, I highlighted the chance of Hughie Morrison's three runners at Wincanton. Two of the three obliged, with Supamouse winning the concluding bumper 14 lengths. Talk immediately afterwards was of the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham but tragedy struck the following day when it was discovered the gelding had suffered a perforated intestine and couldn't be saved. 

Twelve months on and Not So Sleepy has won the 2020 renewal of the Betfair Exchange Trophy at odds of 20/1 - for the record, carrying none of my money. 

Updated figures for the stable's jumps runners read:

Season to date: 1 win from 11 runs (9%); +10 points profit

Last five years: 23 wins from 114 runs (20%); +47.25 points profit

The yard has declared the unraced Scanning in this year's Wincanton bumper (3.50). The following rhetorical question is asked in stentorian, overemphasised, John McCririck-like tones:

Has renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison been hatching a plot? 

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Christmas wishes for 2019

The blow-up beds have been deflated and salient family members shoved out the front door and up the road to church.

Fair play to the parish priest too - he's ever eager to play the part of pantomime villain by further elongating an already elongated religious celebration.

The Christmas Day post is never an easy post to write - looking to offer some small crumb of hope and comfort to those forced to spend the day with relatives they wished were a lot further away than they actually are. And then Auntie Betty drops her false teeth into the trifle.

Six cards (Huntingdon abandoned) to analyse before salient family members return - an impossible task, even with the initial spadework carried out last night.

The trouble is this year I think I might have chanced on something that might have half a chance.

The King George and Christmas Hurdle at Kempton promise some fascinating clashes but I won't be having a bet in either; Commanche Red can be given an each-way shout in the 1.20 on the back of  his third behind Nube Negra and his third behind Reserve Tank.

Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick Chase (2.10) will prove informative and Zerachiel - with seven pound claimer Charlie Todd in the plate - can be given every chance in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (2.15) on the back of his second place in this race last year.

I'm off to Wincanton though where Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow.

But what's this? Fresh from pulling off a stunning victory with Not So Sleepy at Ascot on Saturday, renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison sends *three* runners to the track - Urban Artist (12.55); Third Wind (1.25) and Supamouse (3.45).

The stable's updated figures with their jump runners after Not So Sleepy's win now read:

Season to date: 4 wins from 9 runs (44%); +23.50 points profit
Last five years: 23 wins from 116 runs (20%); +34.29 points profit

A 1 point each-way patent (outlay 14 points) returns 430 points (using prices quoted today as a guide) in the admittedly unlikely event Mr Morrison's three runners win.

Now, we all know it's been a bumpy year but at least there's something to distract you from Uncle Albert's political ramblings over the Christmas turkey...

With best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Eider Chase 2019

There's a top-class card at Kempton tomorrow with Angels Breath set to go in the Dovecote (3.00) but with just ten declared for a trappy-looking 888Sport Handicap Chase (3.35) - the favourite has failed to oblige in the past decade - I'm off to Newcastle in search of some each-way value in the Eider Chase (2.40). A field of sixteen face the starter; the going is described as good to soft, soft in places.

According to the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) the eider is the UK's heaviest duck and its fastest flying - and that looks suspiciously like a tip for top-weight Daklondike to me.

Comply Or Die won this race for trainer David Pipe in 2008 and six weeks later added the Grand National to the haul. Daklondike is clearly talented but he has never looked the easiest of rides although, to be fair to the horse, he appeared unlucky when unseating Tom Scudamore at Haydock last time.

It's no surprise to see Vicente at the head of the market. Paul Nicholls' charge won the Scottish Grand National in 2016 and 2017 off a mark of 146 and he races off exactly the same mark tomorrow. His third at Taunton last month should have put him spot on for this.

Vicente won't mind drying ground but a number in the field would prefer more cut and Baywing certainly falls into that category; last year's winner beat West Of The Edge four lengths on heavy ground. Trainer Nicky Richards seems decidedly more bullish about Baywing's stablemate Progress Drive on his first start after wind surgery - Brian Hughes rides.

Just Your Type is very short in the market for one with just three chase starts to his name. He appeared to have the spoils in the bag when coming to grief two out at Exeter last time; since 1989 only two seven-year-olds have come home in front - Domaine De Pron in 1998 and Portrait King in 2012.

The ground shouldn't inconvenience Ange Des Mirabeaux but following two wins he's now 17lbs higher in the handicap. The trip is an unknown but, that said, this has been the plan all season and I prefer Dan Skelton's charge to Kimberlite Candy whom handler Tom Lacey described as 'inconsistent' in his 'Straight from the Stable' tour (Weekender 07-11.11.18), going on to say '...I'd admit he could be a hard horse to catch right.'

Potters Corner is part-owned by Wales centre Jonathan Davies who will presumably be preparing for the match against England when this race is run. Potters Corner was still in with a shout when coming to grief two from home at Wincanton last time; the nine-year-old has just seven chase starts to his name.

A fourteen-year-old has never won but two contest tomorrow's renewal - Raz De Maree and Harry The Viking. The former would want more cut but the latter deserves a mention for his Scottish Borders National win at Kelso in December (Progress Drive third, West Of The Edge eighth).

On a line through Callet Mad, Crosspark, third in a competitive renewal of the Classic Chase at Warwick six weeks ago, should finish ahead of Harry The Viking and should also handle underfoot conditions. Here he races off the same mark of 135 as at Warwick.

The Charlie Mann trained Morney Wing is another outsider in with a sniff. He looked to have a hard enough race the last day when holding Red Infantry a length in the London National at Sandown but connections have given their charge plenty of time to recover.

Rock On Fruity goes beyond three miles one for the first time; owned by JP McManus, he'll be worth monitoring in the market.

I feel Irish raider Kilkishen may struggle beyond three and a half miles on the balance of his form to date while Mysteree won this in 2017 but has not been competitive of late.

Racing Post ratings indicate Vicente is the one to beat but at the prices I'm going to take an each-way interest in Crosspark, one of two Jamie Moore rides at the track for Caroline Bailey (the other is Don't Tell The Wife in the 1.35). At the time of writing several layers offer 16/1 one fifth the odds five places while William Hill offer 14/1 one fifth the odds seven places.

To my eye Crosspark looked as though he would stay further the last day - Crosspark is the each-way selection, generally available at 16/1 one fifth the odds five places.

I'd like to conclude this post with a slight digression...

Last month the Queen's mare No Trumps (sire: Black Sam Bellamy; dam: Magic Score) was sent off a 33/1 chance in a low-key novice hurdle at Warwick and, after running in snatches, finished a well-beaten fourth.

Speaking personally, if the horse's name brought anything in particular to mind, it was the sort of hand my father complained he was habitually dealt at whist drives in the local church hall - do those things still take place? - but the following day a wry snippet appeared in The Times Diary (aka TMS in recognition of its current location at Thomas More Square, Wapping, E1) highlighting the pre-eminence of the owner and linking the mare's name to Donald Trump and members of his family.

Somewhat taken with this general persiflage, I decided to mail a couple of other equine suggestions to the Diary, including Getaway Trump (fourth in last Saturday's re-arranged Betfair Hurdle at Ascot) and, for beleaguered British bettors besieged by the Brexit brouhaha, Article Fifty.

And, bless my old boots, editor Patrick Kidd replied saying he was potentially interested in the Article Fifty horse.

Now, the beast in question was declared to run at Wetherby on Tuesday so before racing I provided Mr Kidd with some points of interest, the regular stuff, you know - owners: Swanee River Partnership; Mr Richard, not Boris, Johnson doing the steering; required major (wind) surgery last November; competing against the likes of Thelongwayaround, All Hail Caesar - feel free to make up your own comments and insert them here.

In the event, second favourite Article Fifty ran something of a full-blown stinker, finishing eleventh of the thirteen starters, beaten over 90 lengths. It was clear hold-up tactics hadn't worked and questionable whether the administered surgery had, while comments-in-running included terms such as 'headway', swiftly followed by 'soon lost place' and 'behind'. Simply all too bad to be true.

Mr Kidd though was unimpressed - a sort of thanks, PG, but no thanks, didn't really work, the sort of knockback I've become accustomed to receiving after every job interview I've bothered to turn up for over the past 25 years and, with this particular rejection, was there just the slightest suggestion the copy hadn't quite met the exigent editorial standards in place at such an august publication as The Times?

Gutted, I took the hint and instead had a quick word with the editor of this blog, a scruffy, indolent individual, often to be found in the shed at the bottom of the garden reeking of ale and old socks - to quote my dear old mother, 'a man who could use a damned good wash'.

He had no editorial qualms whatsoever.

The trouble with Christmas...

The trouble with Christmas - there are simply too many distractions and as a consequence one's form study suffers.

A couple of each-way Boxing Day longshots I'm going to mull over during Christmas dinner...

Double Shuffle (40/1) in a vintage renewal of of the King George (3.05 Kempton) on the back of his one length second to Might Bite in last year's race.

Allyson Monterg (11/1) in the Rowland Meyrick (2.10 Wetherby). Just eight declared and they'd all need to start for the bookies to pay three places but 14/1 has long since disappeared. Was pulled up behind Presenting Percy in the RSA and came home seventh beaten a long way by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy. I note that in the past decade all winners have been aged either seven or eight apart form According To Pete in 2011 and that in the same timeframe only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Cape Tribulation (2012) and Dolatulo (2014); Captain Chaos and Crosspark fit the required profile.

Food for thought.

Very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Early season temptations

Good Lord, it all seems decidedly early in the season to be talking Grand Nationals!

Gordon Elliott has sent Jury Duty and Clarcam over to contest the American Grand National at Far Hills in New Jersey. Other British runners in the field include Jaleo trained by Ben Pauling, Tornado Watch from the Emmet Mullins yard and Hammersly Lake trained by Charlie Longsdon.

The last-named has a race a little nearer to home named to wish him all the very best; eleven have been declared for tomorrow's 4.55 at Ffos Las: 'Hammersly Lake Good Luck in America Tonight Handicap Chase'.

Kempton's Sunday card is the best jumps action on this side of the Atlantic this weekend.

Only four have been declared for the listed 'Matchbook Time To Move Over Novices' Hurdle' at 3.05 but I'll be interested to see how Itchy Feet shapes up.

After his win at Southwell the last day trainer Olly Murphy said 'I wouldn't be afraid of going up in class with him'. Connections have certainly taken that jump up in class and on Racing Post Ratings Itchy Feet has some 20 lengths to find with likely favourite Leapaway who is going for the six-timer. At present the market is suggesting it's going to be competitive.

Two of the field in the handicap chase at 3.40 have had a recent run and the tissue this evening prices both around the 7/1 mark. Oliver's Hill won this race last year off a mark of 116 and will try to repeat the trick off a mark of 127 having got up to beat Peppay Le Pugh at Fontwell 15 days ago.

Valhalla has a mixed profile. His third behind Ontopoftheworld and I'dliketheoption at Newton Abbot at the beginning of the month was a decent pipe-opener although the winner that day has since been well beaten by Mercian King at Worcester. Colin Tizzard's string seems well forward - Mick Thonic (12/1) ran a creditable race from the front earlier today at Wincanton, beaten half a length by Equus Amadeus.

Last year Ballybolley beat Master Dee into third in the Prelude Handicap Chase (Market Rasen 4.00). The pair meet again this year with Connor Brace claiming ten pounds on Fergal O'Brien's charge. Only eight in the field but a very competitive affair nonetheless; Master Dee would have to be of interest at around 9/2.

To my mind the most interesting race of the day is the Smerdon Tree Novices' Chase (Ffos Las 3.55). I like the Tizzard-trained Vision Des Flos but he's a very short-priced favourite and this looks hot. A race to watch closely with the future in mind...

The temptations are there but I'm going to keep my powder dry for the long season ahead. And anyway, I'm off to Ludlow on Thursday!

Kempton's Betdaq Handicap Chase

Fifteen have been declared for tomorrow's Betdaq Handicap Chase (3.35 Kempton); on a cursory glance my eye is drawn to those nearer the top of the weights.

Acting Lass from Harry Fry's stable heads the market and is unbeaten over fences but his price looks short enough against some of these battle-hardened opponents; this is his first try beyond two miles five and a half furlongs.

Master Dee is the epitome of consistency having finished in the first three on each of his eleven chase starts to date. He has been away from the track for a while but that's not considered a negative and Fergal O'Brien's horses have shown better form in recent weeks.

Paul Nicholls saddles three - Tintern Theatre, Art Mauresque and As De Mee. On jockey bookings, previous course and distance winner Tintern Theatre would appear to hold the best chance but he comes with niggling doubts in the jumping department.

I've had a closer look at Art Mauresque who will appreciate slightly better ground than we've had during the winter months. His second behind Waiting Patiently here last month reads well but the three mile trip is an unknown.

No such doubts surround Go Conquer who was particularly impressive winning the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in November. Next time at the same track he made a bad error and nearly fell and then, with his chance gone, unseated Aidan Coleman three out. The worry is one mistake and the jumping could fall to pieces...

Loose Chips and Theatre Guide may be two old-timers but both can boast decent form at this track - Theatre Guide won the 2016 renewal of this race, finished third last year and tries this time off a one pound lower mark. Nacarat (aged 11 in 2012) is the only horse older than nine to have come home in front in the past decade.

I tipped Label Des Obeaux for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury but his chance went with the standing start. He was better next time, under nine lengths behind Wakanda in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. Alan King indicates in the Weekender this race is a warm-up for his spring target, the Scottish Grand National.

Relentless Dreamer was noted making headway in the Edinburgh National three weeks ago; he finished third that day - both the shorter trip and better ground here are likely to help the cause.

Owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and ridden by son Sam, the mare Theatre Territory has been running well for Warren Greatrex without winning - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Art Mauresque is intriguing but Betfair's place terms are one fifth the odds four places so I'll take a small each-way interest in Go Conquer at 10/1, hoping the jumping issues seen last time were merely a temporary blip...

And, briefly, a couple of other runners noted on the same card.

In the Adonis (2.25): Guillaume Macaire brings over Beau Gosse from France; Malaya is clear of rivals on RPR ratings; Kasperenko, rated 94 on the Flat, makes his hurdling debut.

In the Dovecote (3.00): Carntop, rated 100 on the Flat, is another to make his hurdling debut. He was owned by the Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall until 1st February 2018; the gelding is now owned by the Duchess of Cornwall & Chips Keswick. Make of that whatever you will...

Correction added 23.02.18 @ 23:20
Tintern Theatre is trained by Nigel-Twiston-Davies and not Paul Nicholls as stated above. Sam Twiston-Davies rides for his father tomorrow, not Paul Nicholls. Apologies. PG.

Christmas jumpers

On official ratings tomorrow's Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) looks at the mercy of last year's winner Unowhatimeanharry but his price has been steadily on the drift (out to 2/1 now) and the manner of the defeat by Beer Goggles last time has allowed room for the doubts to set in.

There's a school of thought that 'Harry', ten years old in a week or so, isn't the horse he once was.

Those looking to oppose are unlikely to be bowled over by the prices on offer.

The layers don't appear keen to take too many chances. Sam Spinner, with a record of four wins and two seconds from his six hurdle starts to date, is rated some 12 pounds inferior to the favourite yet is priced as low as 13/2 with Ladbrokes.

I like the Long Walk but this year's renewal looks difficult. Instead I've opted for an each-way chance in the concluding Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at 3.35.

Since the race's inception in 2001, no horse older than seven has secured victory and neither has one carrying top weight; last year Brain Power won under a burden of 11-11.

Elgin heads the handicap this year having won the listed William Hill Handicap Hurdle over course and distance at the beginning of last month (Air Horse One fourth, Verdana Blue fifth and Caid Du Lin seventh) and then following up in the Greatwood at Cheltenham two weeks later (Nietzsche sixth, Chesterfield tenth).

According to calculations I've carried out on the back of a discarded fag packet, Air Horse One is closely matched with both Elgin and, on a line through High Bridge, Charli Parcs, although the latter-named could well improve for his seasonal debut.

That said, Noel Fehily has ridden both Charli Parcs and Air Horse One; he was aboard the former at Newbury the last day and rides Air Horse One tomorrow.

Handler Harry Fry knows what's required - his Jolly's Cracked It dead-heated with Sternrubin last year (N. Fehily up) - and he should also have a decent idea where he lies with Air Horse One, Misterton finishing a neck second to Elgin in the Greatwood. Nicky Henderson has stated that both Charli Parcs and the mare Verdana Blue would appreciate slightly better ground.

Divin Bere, with Bryony Frost claiming five, warrants every respect; he has not been seen since finishing second in the Fred Winter and then second behind Defi Du Seuil at Aintree in April.

Seamus Mullins saddles two. Fergall ran a stormer to finish third in this last year at odds of 25/1 while Chesterfield came home eighth. The latter went on to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle but his comeback run in the Greatwood was a tad disappointing.

At the very bottom of the handicap Man Of Plenty has form behind Misterton, Limited Reserve (second in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle) and A Hare Breath which may suggest he could outrun his current odds of 66/1 (Betfair) but I'm conscious that in recent weeks blog selections have all been running like the proverbial drain...

I was taken with Air Horse One on his penultimate run here in the William Hill; Air Horse One is the each-way suggestion, available generally at 12/1 a quarter the odds four places.

On Boxing Day Bristol De Mai goes for the second leg of the £1 million bonus in the King George at Kempton.

His Racing Post rating of 189 is 11 points ahead of nearest rivals Fox Norton and Thistlecrack. That said, in a piece earlier in the week David Ashworth indicated the horse has shown his very best form on soft / heavy ground...

The going at Kempton is currently good to soft. Clerk of the course Barney Clifford states:

"I've two different forecasts, one with 20mm [of rain] and one with 5mm, so I have no idea... It's really volatile and sporadic - to have two forecasts so far apart, it's like the north and south pole. All I can do is tell people where we are."

Something to think about while the relatives squabble over Christmas dinner...

Season's greetings.

Rhythm and blues and Betbright views

"It's important to get into a good rhythm early on" is the sort of phraseology one might ordinarily associate with one of the Carry On films of the late sixties and early seventies but, for reasons unbeknown to me, in more recent times its usage seems to have become more fashionable amongst racing commentators and pundits who insist on repeating the mantra at least three times before the 'off' of every handicap chase televised.

Such sententious usage has only succeeded in inducing dyspeptic symptoms in this particular viewer during a Saturday afternoon's racing coverage.

Don't get me wrong, I fully understand the validity of the point being made but, hey, I've struck bets on beasts that have quite patently failed to get into any sort of a rhythm in any part of a race, never mind early on, they've just fiddled away and, once or twice, even managed to come good at the end. Similarly I can think of several selections that have established a good rhythm early on only to fade into oblivion at the business end of the race.

Rant over. Remind me to purchase another bottle of Gaviscon before the Festival starts...

At the beginning of the week Tea For Two was priced up favourite for Kempton's Betbright Chase (3.35) but the gelding was missing from Thursday's declarations. It transpires connections have had a re-think and now intend to run in the Gold Cup with Lizzie Kelly set to become the first female professional jockey to ride in the race.

In Tea For Two's absence, Double Shuffle heads the market and there's plenty to like about his chance.

Tom George's inmate raced prominently to win over this course and distance just after Christmas with Opening Batsman finishing some 20 lengths adrift in fifth. The handicapper has raised the winner six pounds for that effort but he's still weighted to confirm placings with Opening Batsman, will appreciate better ground and retains the hood introduced the last time.

Last year's renewal saw Theatre Guide beat Opening Batsman ten lengths (Ballykan fourth, Viva Steve sixth) but 12 months on he's 14 pounds higher which looks challenging.

                                         2016          2017         Lengths beaten
Theatre Guide                    139            153
Opening Batsman              136             133          10
Ballykan                             136             140          12.5 *Ryan Hatch (3)
Viva Steve                          133             139          13.5

Ballykan from the Twiston-Davies stable seems progressive, has been tipped up here and there and is Dave Edwards' Topspeed selection in the Weekender.

There was a lot of money for Viva Steve at Warwick the last day but ultimately he was disappointing in tenth; it was very heavy and he may bounce back but the suspicion is he'd prefer a bit more cut than he's likely to get.

'If you can't get three miles at Kempton, you can't get it anywhere.' I've lost count of the number of times I've heard that particular adage. I put no store by it so have to discount the three in the field that try the trip for the first time - Aso, Three Musketeers and Pilgrims Bay; in my book Irish Saint is another runner that doesn't look guaranteed to stay.

Fingerontheswtich wearing a tongue-tie for the first time won over three miles at Wetherby the last day so merits consideration but you need a more lateral approach to bring Nicky Henderson's duo, Cocktails At Dawn and Triolo D'Alene, into the reckoning.

Whilst Cocktails At Dawn sound far more civilised than Pistols At Dawn - mine's an Old Fashioned - I wouldn't have given this one a second glance until I read earlier in the week that the master trainer had been keeping him back for the Grand National; allocated 10-3 he looks to have every chance of making the cut. On 10 October 2015 Cocktails had As De Mee, Native River, Blaklion and Regal Encore in arrears in a Chepstow novice chase; you don't need me to tell you things haven't quite gone to plan in the interim...

Back in March 2012 at a Festival preview evening Nicky Henderson touted Triolo D'Alene as his best bet 'down in the handicaps'. The beast has frustrated me ever since. In 2013 he won the Hennessy at odds of 20/1 carrying none of my money. I've long since given up trying to predict how he'll run but I would say he has won at Kempton; in his younger days he appeared to be suited by better ground but nowadays I think he prefers some cut.

As always, an open affair - Double Shuffle has obvious claims.

At the time of writing Ballykan is 14/1 with Paddy Power who pay a fifth the odds four places while Cocktails At Dawn is 18/1 with Coral who pay a quarter the odds three places.

Of the two Ballykan appears more likely to run a race so Ballykan is the each-way suggestion. I just hope he gets into a good rhythm early on...

Boxing Day blues

A little like Victor Meldrew I feel I must be getting old and miserable because the Boxing Day cards have just failed to inspire.

In years gone by, driven to distraction by the family Christmas, I've attended Newton Abbot and Towcester races on St Stephen's Day but unfortunately those fixtures no longer form part of the racing calendar.

The withdrawal of Coneygree has paved the way for Thistlecrack to take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. A fascinating race in prospect, agreed, but with just five runners it's one to savour rather than bet on. The meagre turnout for this showpiece event is likely to be seen as something of an embarrassment in certain quarters.

A similarly small field is assured for Kempton's Christmas Hurdle where Sam Twiston-Davies will want to try and make all aboard The New One. Richard Harper has declared Gray Wolf River, rated some 104 pounds lower than The New One, in the hope of collecting place prize money; some layers have quoted odds of 5,000/1.

Hennessy form should come in handy in the next few days with Blaklion and Henri Parry Morgan declared for Monday's Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby while Native River, Carole's Destrier, Vyta Du Roc and Theatre Guide all hold entries for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday.

On form Blaklion looks the one to beat at Wetherby but after his fifth in the Hennessy pilot Ryan Hatch reported his charge had 'cut out' up the long home straight and connections were likely to consider a breathing operation...

Previous Welsh National winners Mountainous and Emperor's Choice will probably try to repeat the trick on Tuesday but, provided the going doesn't dry out too much, I'll take an each-way interest in Firebird Flyer.

Second in last year's race, Evan Williams' charge went on to win the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March and had a reasonable prep on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month. He starts from a mark eight pounds higher this time.

Looking slightly further ahead, ITV commences its racing coverage at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Richard Hoiles is the new lead commentator; I know I'm going to miss Simon Holt.

Happy Christmas!

Each-way value in 2015 King George?

In my opinion the best each-way value in this year's King George VI Chase at Kempton is previous winner Silviniaco Conti - 9/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill.

Happy Christmas to all readers!

Lazing on a Sunday afternoon...

Ever so slowly the National Hunt season is clicking into gear.

Tony McCoy retired in April but Richard Johnson didn't - earlier this afternoon 'Dickie' recorded his 100th winner this term aboard He's A Bully at Wincanton.

There are jumps cards at Stratford, Market Rasen and Ffos Las tomorrow but Kempton's card on Sunday is the highlight.

The New One returns to action in the williamhill.com Listed Hurdle at 4.25 and he'll be long odds on to repeat his victory of a year ago.

I backed him against Faugheen for the Champion Hurdle in March but he was something of a disappointment in fifth, beaten over eight lengths. He's certainly not the biggest of individuals but I'm wondering whether connections will opt to go down the novice chase route at some point.

A quick word for Stephanie Frances in this race - she finished ahead of Bantam (second), Midnight Jazz (third) and Quiet Candid (fifth) in a mares' novices' listed hurdle at Cheltenham on her penultimate start - the named trio renew rivalry in Stratford's opener tomorrow with Bantam weighted to confirm placings.

Despite carrying a penalty Oceane is likely to prove popular in the opening juvenile hurdle at 2.15. Rated 88 on the Flat, she caught the eye on her hurdling debut at Fontwell, jumping neatly and drawing away from her rivals after the last.

Looking for some value, the Listed novices' hurdle at 3.20 has caught my attention.

John Ferguson's Maputo is rated 138 and sets a high standard having won three on the bounce. There's no obvious reason why he shouldn't confirm Huntingdon form with Regulation although this one obliged at odds of 9/4 at Wincanton today and may not take up Sunday's engagement.

Both San Benedeto and Midnight Shot have made all to win in the past and may well be keen to 'get on with things' on their seasonal debuts which could play into the hands of Swansea Mile.

Dan Skelton's charge faces no easy task conceding weight all round but on his first run in this country three weeks ago the gelding finished two and a quarter lengths third behind Cloonacool in a listed handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. That effort looks all the more noteworthy as the form book records Swansea Mile 'clipped heels and stumbled badly after 3 out' yet was 'pressing for 2nd flat'.

To me it looks the best form on offer. That said, we can assume John Ferguson will know what's required as Maputo's stablemate Broughton finished a neck behind Swansea Mile in fourth (and then went out to win a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Chepstow last Sunday). 

Plenty of ifs and buts; I'll take an interest in Swansea Mile provided he's priced up 4/1 or bigger.

Kempton considerations

Sixteen were originally declared for tomorrow's  feature at Kempton, the BetBright Chase (3.45), but with What A Warrior now a non-runner, most layers have reacted by offering each-way terms a quarter the odds three places; at the time of writing Betfred / totesport and BetVictor were paying four places.

In a race that often goes the way of a younger chaser, I'll take no more than a small each-way interest in Le Reve (9/1) - he won well the last day at Sandown.

On the balance of probabilities one of the top three in the market will take the Pendil at 2.35.

That said, both Gods Own and Irish Saint have questions to answer. The former looked something special when winning the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter and I tipped him for the Tingle Creek the next time but his jumping was awful; the latter proved disappointing in the Scilly Isles at Sandown three weeks ago, having no answer to Willie Mullins' Gitane Du Berlais.

All of which leaves Melodic Rendezvous. This one is a very smart hurdler but he doesn't have a lot of experience over the larger obstacles (rated roughly 10lbs lower over fences) and the yard hasn't recorded a winner since December. Connections thought long and hard about going to Chepstow to take on Sire de Grugy in receipt of plenty of weight but they've opted for this instead.

On ratings Gods Own wins but in receipt of seven pounds Melodic Rendezvous has just two to find. The layers aren't taking any chances (best-priced 5/2 this evening) but Melodic Rendezvous gets the vote.

Nicky Henderson saddles Days Of Heaven in the Dovecote (3.10) and Bivouac in the Adonis (2.00).

The former hasn't been entirely straightforward in the past yet I prefer him to Vago Collonges; he's no betting proposition.

At the five day stage Henderson had both Top Notch and Bivouac amongst the entries for the Adonis. It looks as though Top Notch now goes to Cheltenham without a prep while Bivouac is priced up favourite here.

He's the form selection but the pricing suggests the layers think they can get him beat with one of the more unexposed types. Beltor didn't appear anything special on the Flat but is clearly fancied to build on his Ludlow defeat of Arabian Revolution (winner since) while All Yours looks tempting at around 4/1...

All Yours is the suggestion. Primogeniture and Jeanpascal are interesting debutants in this country; Jeanpascal and Russian Bolero go here following the abandonment of Warwick earlier today due to waterlogging.

Finally I've been waiting a while for Warren Greatrex's April Dusk who ran a fine race against the more experienced Foryourinformation in a Ffos Las maiden at the turn of the year.

The gelding held a five-day entry for Newcastle's 3.30 but the handler obviously changed his mind during the week and decided that particular event wasn't part of the plan...   

Kempton's King George VI Chase 2014

Burdened with family commitments, this year I haven't spent as much time with the form book as I should have...

On official ratings Silviniaco Conti is the one to beat in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day (3.10). Paul Nicholls' charge did the blog a favour in Haydock's Betfair Chase last month; the softer the ground the better.

The next two in the market, Champagne Fever and Al Ferof, have never won over three miles so I've looked more closely at Menorah and Cue Card.

Both will appreciate drying ground and, according to the weather forecast, that's what they're likely to get.

Menorah has been something of a revelation this year winning Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase on good ground and then finishing two lengths adrift of Silviniaco in the Betfair where underfoot conditions were far more testing. In his younger days Philip Hobbs' gelding was known to have jumping issues but he has improved with age although I'm still reluctant to trust him implicitly over these obstacles.

Following a pelvic injury Cue Card has been a little slow to come to hand this term but connections have been making the right noises recently. Colin Tizzard's inmate was outstayed when beaten by Silviniaco in this event last year but he was aggressively ridden on that occasion and a more conservative approach may pay dividends; on official ratings he has three pounds to find with the favourite.

I can still see Cue Card emptying up the home straight in last year's renewal with the race apparently at his mercy and earlier fancier prices have disappeared as well so I'll take an each-way chance on Menorah (8/1) in the hope that his sticky jumping holds out.

Wishing all readers a very merry Christmas.

Kempton's Tolworth Hurdle

Seven declared for tomorrow's re-arranged Tolworth at Kempton with layers marking up The Liquidator as favourite; trainer David Pipe is on record saying Sandown would probably have suited his charge better than this sharp track.

Willie Mullins appears to have a surfeit of riches in the novice hurdle department - the general feeling is Upazo wouldn't necessarily be the best in the yard but they'll find out more tomorrow. Having said that, five of the seven have been allocated an official handicap rating and Walsh's mount has six pounds in hand over his nearest rival.

Josses Hill would be the pick of the Henderson pair while Prince Siegfried was in the process of running a big race the last day when taking an horrendous looking fall at the final flight in Ascot's Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle - Irving collected the spoils that day and was amongst the five-day declarations for this but connections have decided not to run. Without that heavy fall, Prince Siegfried was a player in my book but it's a major worry and his trainer's comment 'He's a confidence horse' after the gelding's victory at Huntingdon in November doesn't inspire confidence now.

I can't have Creepy (also declared at Warwick 3.00) after a desperately poor show of hurdling in the Challow but Garde La Victoire is of interest. He lost his unbeaten record when pipped a neck by Ballyalton at Cheltenham last time but that doesn't tell the whole story as the form book reports the gelding 'stood at start for 20 seconds before getting going' that day. Perhaps Philip Hobbs' charge isn't entirely straight-forward.

In my book the value this evening is Upazo (7/2 Coral, Bet Victor) and Garde La Victoire (6/1 Boylesports). I'll chance Garde La Victoire - with victories at Aintree and Warwick to his name already, this track should suit.

On RP ratings Killala Quay is the top-rated animal in Warwick's Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) so the 5/1 generally available about Charlie Longsdon's charge looks a fair price - Willie Mullins saddles Rathvinden (as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes) while Deputy Dan (4/1) has also come in for support.

Kempton's King George VI Chase 2013

Nine are declared for this year's King George. Cue Card, fifth last year, is priced up favourite with most layers while last year's winner Long Run is generally a 10/1 chance.

Last month I tipped Silviniaco Conti for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite travelling well through the race, Nicholls' charge couldn't go with either Cue Card or Dynaste from two out and on face value he'll struggle to reverse those placings yet official ratings indicate he is within one pound of top-rated Cue Card. Nicholls' string wasn't firing on all cylinders at that time; on the same day as the Haydock showpiece Nicholls' first jock Daryl Jacob was at Ascot riding Al Ferof in a match against French Opera. Al Ferof's fencing looked a little ring-rusty there but Jacob stays loyal to Al Ferof.

Cue Card posted a career best to win the Betfair Chase proving he stays the trip. He's likely to race prominently but isn't always the most fluent at the obstacles; on balance I think he could struggle to repeat his front-running feat at this track - last year he blew away his chance with a howler at the first.

Dynaste was an easy winner of the Feltham over course and distance last year. In a very open renewal, I take Dynaste to grab the spoils - he's priced up generally at 100/30.

Long Run, wearing a first-time visor, rates a value each-way selection  at 10/1. Invariably he throws in one dodgy jump on the way round but should the visor do the trick...

On paper the Christmas Hurdle is a match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Throughout his career Twiston-Davies has favoured a bold risk-taking approach; he immediately nominated this race after his charge won the International at Cheltenham just 12 days ago, implying his charge had had an easy enough race. I'm not so convinced; I won't have a bet but this track is likely to suit Henderson's charge better.