2012 Derby Day deliberations

For some reason or other Queen Elizabeth II has been in the news a bit recently.

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of her coronation and to mark the occasion Epsom have named the Coronation Cup (2.40) the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup. Of course, the feature is the Derby with just nine set to face the starter (4.00). Most observers think Camelot is something of a shoo-in with the result Aidan O'Brien's colt will start odds-on and will probably be sent off one of the shortest-priced favourites since the war - the shortest priced winner of the race was Ladas who took the 1894 renewal at odds of 2/9.

If you're not convinced Camelot is the stuff of legend, you may want to look to Andrew Balding's Bonfire to start the fireworks. Those watching the BBC's final coverage of the event would also be well-advised to prepare themselves for some loud shrieks in commentary from Andrew's sister, Clare, if Bonfire has the merest hint of a chance in the final furlong. At 5/1 the colt offers value against the favourite but his temperament could be considered slightly suspect - if I were betting this one, I'd want to be absolutely sure he'd handled the preliminaries before parting with the stake money.

Main Sequence is unbeaten but this represents a set up in class and I may be star-gazing but Astrology could act as pacemaker for his stablemate. Mickdaam looked anything but an easy ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but should confirm form with Balding's second string Minimise Risk.

Hayley Turner becomes only the second female ever to ride in the race - Alex Greaves finished last on Portugese Lil in 1996. Hayley's mount, Cavaleiro, is probably overpriced at 66/1 but still has plenty to find.

During the week money has come for Thought Worthy (now 16/1) - this one beat Rugged Cross a neck and three quarters of a length in the listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last month. Thought Worthy is worthy place material but for the more adventurous Rugged Cross (50/1)  is put up as the each-way wager given that Newmarket effort was on his seasonal debut and there could be improvement to come.

Her Majesty's Carlton House, third in last year's Derby, added to royal celebrations with an assured victory at Sandown yesterday evening and Harvest Song tries to repeat the trick for the owner in tonight's 6.40 at Stratford.

I admit I've haven't been paying attention but I feel as though I've sleep-walked into this weekend and have just been given a slap across the face with a wet fish.Those looking to avoid the pomp and circumstance integral in any royal celebration may want to consider this alternative NH itinerary over the next few days...

Friday evening: Stratford - first race 5.40;
Saturday: Watch the Derby on the big screen at Stratford - evening's racing commences at 6.00;
Sunday: Head north to Uttoxeter - first race 2.10;
Monday: Back south to Towcester - first race 2.20;
Tuesday: Head west to Ffos Las - first race 2.30.

Other suggested itineraries welcomed.

Frozen courses

Probably the only thing I have in common with Kempton's clerk of the course Barney Clifford is the fact we both took a peek under the covers this morning and didn't particularly like what we saw. Kempton's Boxing Day card has been abandoned; Monday's revised eight-race card at the track is now subject to an inspection on Sunday (Boxing Day) at 2.00pm.

At the time of writing the current state of play is:

Boxing Day 26th December

Kempton Park - abandoned

Fontwell Park - 11.00 am inspection Christmas Day

Huntingdon - abandoned

Market Rasen - abandoned

Towcester - abandoned

Wetherby - abandoned

Wincanton -abandoned

Wolverhampton - inspection 6.30 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned. Rescheduled Thursday 30th December

Limerick - abandoned

Down Royal - abandoned

Monday 27th December

Chepstow - abandoned. Welsh National meeting rescheduled January 8th

Kempton Park - inspection 2.00 pm Boxing Day

Southwell - no inspection currently planned

Wetherby - inspection 9.00 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned

Tuesday 28th December

Catterick - abandoned

Ffos Las - course currently covered

Leicester - inspection 8.30 am Boxing Day

Wednesday 29th December

Kelso - abandoned

Thursday 30th December

Haydock - inspection 11.00 am Tuesday 28th December


Makes grim reading, doesn't it? Pass the port, please...

Easter cards

Easter is an awkward time of year - family, holidays, wet weather, all that sort of stuff, and the run-of-the-mill racing that comes with it doesn't do much to ameliorate the situation. Earlier today (Good Friday), heaven knows how, I ended up listening to Classic FM's Hall Of Fame marathon for a few minutes, in which they count down the top 300 classical works, with the 'all-important Number One' due to be announced just before 9.00pm on Easter Monday. I think I was listening to Exsultate Jubilate K.165 by one Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart but I couldn't be certain. Enough of that; here's a few notes on the Easter weekend's offerings...

I'm struggling to find something that makes much appeal on Saturday. Only five go to post in the Sports 360 & The Football Conference Handicap Chase at Haydock; at the time of writing the Sporting Life price up Philip Hobbs' Gershwin 6/4 favourite. This six year old looks plenty short enough in the market considering his limited chasing experience. Dominican Monk warrants consideration but a reading of his form suggests the ground may ride a little quick for him. In the Weekender Colin Russell expects a big run from Tom's Toybox with regular amateur Lucy Horner claiming five. Beggars Cap unseated Graham Lee in the Grand Annual but prior to that the horse had finished seventh behind Leslingtaylor at Doncaster, with Tom's Toybox a further seven lengths behind in eighth. On that occasion Coach Lane was third, beaten just under ten lengths by Leslingtaylor. In the meantime Coach Lane was pulled up at Lingfield but, if you forgive him that run where he didn't jump well, he looks bang in with a chance here yet in the tissue is priced at 10/1. The Sporting Life claim Coach Lane is out of form which I think a little unkind - I'll wait to see how the market shapes up tomorrow before making any decisions.

At Carlisle the opener looks between Sa Suffit and Fit To Drive while a lot of the fancied runners in the Totescoop6 Handicap Chase have shown their form when the ground is riding on the soft side. In the concluding hunters' chase Geeveem, formerly with Paul Nicholls, will be worth a second look as he's the top-rated individual and being by Supreme Leader should handle better going.

In the Weekender Malcolm Heyhoe is keen on Heebie Jeebie in Sunday's finale at Plumpton and I'm with him. I was at Stratford when the mare, having her first run for nearly nine months, ran a stormer over slightly further to finish third, less than a length behind Quiny Boy and Bolton Hall. That day the front three pulled nearly thirty lengths clear of their rivals and the first two have been placed subsequently. On official ratings Heebie Jeebie has something to find with some of these but I'd like to think she'll improve for the run; the tissue has her 8/1 - at that price you could back her each-way. Benayoun rates an obvious danger.

Easter Sunday is one of the two days when you have to pay to get in at Towcester. A decent show from Burton Port in the 2.55 at Haydock on Saturday will point to Busker Royal's chance in the 3.10, those horses having finished fourth and sixth respectively behind Big Eared Fran at Sandown recently. I marginally prefer Venetia Williams' Pterodactyl in this. There isn't much between Inaro and Rydal Park in the open hunters' chase at 4.40; last time I fancied course and distance winner Rydal Park to beat Back Nine but the selection fell at the tenth. One to note though is Sleep Bal who is rated some sixteen pounds higher than Rydal Park - he warrants close inspection.

Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a very happy Easter!

Boxing Day selection box

As always, the Boxing Day selections come with their customary health / wealth warning. It's Christmas Eve, I haven't had time to study much of the form, I've had one or two more sherberts than I should have, and Mrs Tips is bending my ear. If you're hoping to win the mortgage down your local track the day after tomorrow, that's not going to happen with these picks...

I've tried to come up with at least one selection at each of the jump meetings.

Kempton
1.30 The Market Man
2.05 Either Pierrot Lunaire or Snap Tie as a play against Punjabi
2.40 Kauto Star win, Snoopy Loopy each way

Wetherby
1.45 Marginally prefer Standin Obligation to Cloudy Lane as a play against Tidal Bay

Wincanton
1.15 Pride Of Dulcote

Huntingdon
12.20 Starburst Diamond
2.00 Victorias Groom

Towcester
1.25 Rate Of Knots
3.40 Neil Harvey

Market Rasen
2.25 Victory Gunner goes for his fourth consecutive win in the Lincolnshire National. I fear he may have a little too much weight this year but I'll be hoping he manages to pull it off.

Sedgefield
12.15 River Shanakill
12.45 Kings Maiden
2.55 Justwhateverulike

Merry Christmas everyone!

Ladies' Day at Royal Ascot - Thursday

This is post number two hundred - I just don't know where all the time has gone...

A couple of readers have indicated that there hasn't been much Ascot fashion comment on this blog. I'm aware of this shortcoming and have taken direct steps to rectify the situation by appointing Mrs Tips' mother (aka Granny Tips in our house) as a roving reporter. I use the term 'roving' advisedly, as Granny Tips tends to rove from the living room where the TV is situated into the kitchen to make a cup of tea just about whenever the fancy takes her. Her comments will be available online later in the week.

The weather is always an issue on Ladies' Day; the BBC's five day forecast predicts heavy showers for tomorrow. I'm afraid I've just the one Ascot tip for Thursday and it's Yeats in the Gold Cup which is due off at 3.45. On all known form this horse is the winner and will be a lot of people's banker for the whole week. The result is he will start odds on but this is not a race to go looking for value elsewhere; make sure you're not tempted.

If you're not keen on betting odds on, try Venetia Williams' Kock de la Vesvre in the 7.40 at Towcester. I saw Kim Bailey's Metal Detector win very easily over the course last time out but the balance of KdlV's form looks better and his trainer has a good record at the track.

Tales from Towcester

Recently 'demonised' middle class wine drinkers, together with accompanying picnics, were out in force yesterday evening at Towcester, and jolly civilised it all was too. I freely admit I've never been particularly well versed in the dark art of eating alfresco; after all National Hunt racing is primarily a winter sport. It was a fascinating sight to behold. The air of civility even extended to the betting ring where, on several occasions, punters formed orderly queues to strike a bet with the bookmaker of their choice.

I'd estimate the crowd between 5,000 and 6,000. The ground looked to be riding quite fast; Nicky Henderson pulled out his declared runners, No Regrets and Tisseman. Two performaces stood out.

Tom Scudamore made plenty of use of French import Ronald Jack (pictured leading over the last) in the Maiden Chase to win with something in hand. Market leader Noble Ben never seemed able to land a blow while second favourite Berhamsted broke down badly before the third.

Metal Detector literally hosed up in the three mile chase, winning by an eased down 18 lengths. Last time out, running in a first time visor over course and distance, the formbook reports the horse 'downed tools completely 11th'. Reverting back to the previously used blinkers, MD swept past his rivals on the turn for home and effectively had the race in the bag in a matter of strides. Middleham Park won the separate race for second place.

Mark Beesley, writing in the racecard, reports that by the end of racing at the next meeting on Thursday June 21st 'four seasons of virtual free admission at Towcester will be complete'. Long may it continue.

Thanks to my daughter for the photos taken at her inaugral race meeting, with Ashwell giving us the win we were looking for...

Friday evening at Towcester

A run-of-the-mill card at Towcester tomorrow but I hope to get there provided I can cut away from work early. Going through the form this evening, Berkhamsted appears to have a good chance in the 7.10 race provided he stays; all his form to date has been over two miles. I'll support Ashwell in the 8.10 while New Time could improve to be competitive in the next.

Notes from Towcester

Glinton put up an excellent performance to carry top weight to victory in the first. The Racing Post's 'In running' column suggested Glinton relished a fight more than odds on shot Warne's Way and so it proved. The winner's better jump at the last sealed the issue.

Milton Des Bieffes completed his hat trick with victory in the second. Yvanovitch was booked to win this until landing steeply and unseating his rider at the second last. We'd bet Yvanovitch at 28/1 on course and could see the best part of £150 coming our way until that moment. To be fair, the horse put himself right, but that threw the balance of decent seven pound claimer David Cullinane. That's racing.

High jinks in the next when Woodview threw Jason Maguire in front of the stands on the way to post. The horse proceeded to gallop loose for approximately four furlongs before eventually being caught and remounted. In the race itself, he was the only threat to eventual winner Fisherman Jack. After jumping the last, Woodview lost his action completely which appeared to hand a simple victory to Fisherman Jack, only for that horse to bump into the running rail on the run in and nearly unseat his rider. Woodview would have gone close had he not broken loose in the preliminaries.

The three mile novice hurdle was a tactical affair with the race only really starting in earnest off the home turn. Jason Maguire on What A Scientist stole a march by getting first run on Richard Johnson and Evelith Forrest; that proved to be the decisive move. It's not that often you see traffic problems in a three mile novice hurdle with six runners but Richard Johnson managed to find a fair bit of trouble in getting his run together.

The sun was low in the sky by the time the beginners' chase was due off; this resulted in the fences in the home straight being omitted. Runners had to weave their way in and out of the hurdles course to avoid the fences. Esprit Saint looked a couple of lengths to the good inside the final furlong but Jamie Moore took Quirino onto the running rail and got him up to win by a head in the dying strides.

The final race with 18 runners had the look of a bookmakers' benefit; in the event it was anything but with favourite Tanzanite Dawn claiming a smooth victory at 9/4.

Tomorrow at Towcester

I had intended to give you all a 10/1 winner at Ascot this Saturday but the weather intervened... Still, I have a place in a car going to Towcester tomorrow so, as a replacement for a 10/1 winner at Ascot, here's a few short priced disappointments for this meeting instead.

The 2.10 looks a poor race full of inconsistent sorts with only Milton Des Bieffes making any appeal and he's the selection. The Weekender touts top weight Yvanovitch as having an each way chance; if eight go to post he is of interest at 10/1 or more.

I saw Trading Up win impressively over course and distance in a similar race on similar ground in November; as the opposition is modest, he's taken to repeat the trick in the 2.40. The likely SP of 3/1 could be value.

I'll be looking to get Evelith Forrest beaten in the 3.10. Tom George's What A Scientist has the best chance of doing so but Coorbawn Vic may also be worth a small interest at a big price after showing improved form in his last race at Haydock.

The 3.40 looks a match between Quirino and Esprit Saint; I prefer the latter.

Towcester talkback

There was plenty of mud flying at Towcester yesterday; BBC Ceefax reported before racing that the course had taken 16 mm of rain overnight. The car park was on the soft side of heavy.

The tannoy wasn't fully operational during the first but they went pretty steady. I overheard one of the jockeys say the horses were going through it but you wouldn't want to try going any faster!

The Outlier gave the day's most impressive performance by leading from the front and carrying top weight to an easy victory. This horse jumped superbly and will surely get three miles. I backed What'sonyourmind but he was struggling to go the pace down the back straight, even though he was benefitting from his rider's 7lbs claim.

In the novice chase Flintoff took a walk in the market from 7/2 to 6/1. This may have been on account of the performace of England's cricketers or perhaps, more likely, on account of the comment in the Racing Post that the horse had weakened alarmingly when last seen on heavy ground. Whatever the reason, nobody had told the horse as he looked the winner coming to the last but was caught by Henry Daly's Principe Azzurro on the climb to the line. I backed Tom George's Good Citizen in this race. The horse didn't look the most natural of jumpers, losing ground at some flights and jumping left at others. Twiston-Davies' Billyandi showed a bit of temperment going to post, raced off the main group for a way and was then pulled up before the last.

The horse to take from the concluding bumper was 9/1 shot What A Buzz. Having his first run in public, this 'giant' of a horse, to use the course commentator's description, made a bold bid for victory on the turn for home. He was caught by Henrietta Knight's Bally Conn but there is surely a race in him. Favourite Mole's Chamber was easy to back and the market vibes proved correct.

A trip to Towcester is on the cards

There are some big races this weekend, including the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Having had my request for special leave approved by my wife, I'm travelling to Towcester. Towcester is still the best free view in sport.

The opener appears to be a penalty kick for Red Scally.

Flintoff, owned by Paul Beck and Andrew Flintoff, is an interesting runner in the 12.45. I dare say 'Freddie' will be hoping his horse shows better form than England's cricketers have in Australia. Lydia Hislop gave some background on Paul Beck's racing year in her column in The Times on Wednesday. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,15009-2465078.html

This race looks a close call - in my book likely favourite Erica's Charm will be vulnerable on the soft going.

Alfa Sunrise could pop up at a price in the 2.15 while the stats point to Apple Joe in the 2.50. The Racing Post top rated horse has landed the spoils in each of the last six runnings; Apple Joe is top rated and, for good measure, won over course and distance last week, having been backed from 25/1 in to 12/1. Tomorrow's starting price will be around 7/2.