The 2025 bet365 Gold Cup

On Monday 10th March Dan Skelton was priced up 1/6 to collect his first British trainers' title; six and a half weeks later, Willie Mullins is priced up 1/12 to collect his second British trainers' title.

Dan Skelton leads Willie Mullins by £68,483 this evening but tomorrow's card at Sandown will be pivotal.

The bet365 Gold Cup, due off at 4.10, is worth £98,473 to the winner and Willie Mullins is responsible for ten of the 20 runners. 

His Grangeclare West, third behind stablemates Nick Rockett and I Am Maximus in the Grand National three weeks ago (Minella Cocooner seventh, Threeunderthrufive and Monbeg Genius pulled up), carries top weight on a mark of 168, thereby ensuring 11 in the field run from out of the handicap - including stablemates O'Moore Park, Spanish Harlem, Chosen Witness and Klarc Kent. 

Skelton's sole entry, Hoe Joly Smoke, is 13 pounds 'wrong'.

Paul Townend, third on the Mullins trained Quai De Bourbon in the Irish National at Fairyhouse on Monday, rides favourite High Class Hero here. This one won a three mile point at Loughbrickland in November 2021 but has yet to win over that distance or beyond under rules.

Dancing City was well beaten in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham in March and then parted company with Townend in the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree; back in May last year he finished half a length ahead of High Class Hero in the Grade 1 Channor Real Estate Group Novices' Hurdle at Punchestown.

Danny Mullins and Minella Cocooner were victorious in this race last year (Threeunderthrufive weakening from three out to finish thirteenth) and the partnership try to repeat the trick this year off 155, a mark just four pounds higher.

Four of the Mullins runners contested the Scottish National at Ayr a fortnight ago: Chosen Witness, Olympic Man, Spanish Harlem and Klarc Kent. 

Chosen Witness raced prominently but was eventually pulled up while both Olympic Man and Spanish Harlem didn't fence particularly well on the day; Klarc Kent on the other hand jumped the final flight three lengths to the good before being collared on the run to the line by stablemate Cool Cody.

Lombron, with Rachael Blackmore up, was pulled up on his sole start over three miles while O'Moore Park was beaten by the Skelton trained Riskintheground over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham ten days ago.

To my mind Minella Cocooner appeals most from the Mullins runners but there's no value in his current price.

Having said that, searching for a viable each-way play is beginning to look like something of a fool's errand.

Paul Kealy put up Victtorino in the RP Weekender. 

This one is best going right-handed and has won on good ground previously but stable form has been poor recently, although Hunter Legend obliged for connections at Bangor yesterday.

The suspicion is both Jonjo O'Neill runners - Monbeg Genius and Collectors Item - would want more cut underfoot.    

Resplendent Grey and Transmission finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Haiti Couleurs at Cheltenham in March (Klarc Kent eighth) - that form received a boost on Monday when the winner picked up the Irish National at Fairyhouse; off level weights, I'd expect Resplendent Grey to confirm the form.

Knockanore won the Eider 16 lengths in February but finished 33 lengths behind Mr Vango in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter - and is 15 pounds 'wrong' here.

I'm going to take a chance with King's Threshold who has won his last three but still goes from eight pounds out of the handicap. 

Writing in the RP Weekender [29.01-02.02.25] trainer Emma Lavelle said:

"He has plenty of ability but he's a fine-margin horse - he wants everything right for him. I've just fired his palate because he can make a bit of a noise and I think there are plenty more races in him. He's got himself well handicapped this season."

He has won on good ground and going right-handed; the trip is a step into the unknown.

King's Threshold is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 22/1 with Paddy Power who pay six places. 

The 2025 Scottish Grand National

In a bid to wrestle a second consecutive British trainers' title from Dan Skelton, Willie Mullins' bandwagon rolls in to Ayr...

Six of the yard's original 11 entries for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (3.35) have made the final declaration stage in a field of 23 runners; those who waited to see what Paul Townend chose to ride waited in vain - the stable's star jockey hasn't been booked for a ride since finishing second on I Am Maximus at Aintree last Saturday.

At the time of writing four of the six Mullins horses are prominent in the market: Chosen Witness, with Sean O'Keefe up; Olympic Man (Mr P W Mullins); Captain Cody (Harry Cobden); and last year's winner Macdermott (Danny Mullins) .

Chosen Witness has yet to win a race over fences in three starts but he was travelling well enough at Navan last time when unseating Paul Townend in a race won by Better Days Ahead - who subsequently finished third in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival.

Olympic Man is another with just three chase starts to his name. He won over two and a half miles at Naas last time out but, to date, hasn't always appeared particularly fluent over his fences.

Captain Cody has yet to win in four chase starts; he unseated mid-race behind Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Festival last month (Rock My Way second, Klarc Kent eighth, Hasthing fell at final fence when probably booked for fourth) and looks high enough in the handicap on 140.

In last year's renewal Macdermott (137) pipped Surrey Quest (133) a nose, with  Klarc Kent fourth (132), Spanish Harlem sixth (140), and Mr Incredible (153) pulled up. 

Macdermott's form looks rather indifferent this season yet he goes off 142 while this race has been a stated target for Surrey Quest who races off 139. 

Spanish Harlem, beaten just over eight lengths and now four pounds lower, appears feasibly treated on 136 while Klarc Kent - along with Magna Sam and Brandt - runs from out of the handicap this year but hinted at a return to form in the National Hunt Challenge Cup.

It all brings back memories of younger days when, on my annual trip to the Festival, I'd try to pick the Mullins trained winner of the Cheltenham bumper - more often than not, the market proved of no practical use whatsoever...

One final observation on last year's race, run on ground officially described as soft. 

11 of the 26 runners completed, all carrying under 11 stones; less than 10 lengths separated the first seven home, with all 11 finishers in a ratings band between 132 - 141.

In 2004 Grey Abbey carried 11-12 to victory; since then only four winners have carried more than 11-00: Godsmejudge (11-03, 2013); Vicente (11-03, 2016 and 11-10, 2017); and Mighty Thunder (11-01, 2021).

The going this year is described as good to soft; Skelton relies on Sail Away and Snipe in his bid to land the £112,540 first prize. He'll certainly feel encouraged by the treble he sent out at the Scottish venue today: Roxanne (100/30); Riskintheground (13/2); and Asta La Pasta (6/4f). 

Sail Away and Snipe finished second and third behind The Doyen Chief at Warwick just over a fortnight ago, beaten a neck and six and threequarters lengths; the winner was probably worth more than the official winning margin that day and has the bet365 Chase at Sandown as his target. 

Sail Away hasn't come home in front since winning the 2023 running of the Novices' Championship Handicap Chase at this meet off 136 but his last two runs have hinted at better to come - he bled from the nose when third behind The Doyen Chief on his penultimate start. He'll appreciate better ground and is feasibly treated on a mark of 132 although the trip is a journey into the unknown.

Previously Snipe came home third behind Docpickedme in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster in January, where Walking On Air fell jumping the last when looking the likely winner.

Harry Skelton rides Sail Away and that one looks the stable's main hope.  

New handler Faye Bramley, based at A P McCoy's pre-training yard in Lambourn, saddles Walking On Air for the first time. When with Gary Brown, the gelding finished eleventh behind Daily Present in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 30 days ago, a race in which Grozni finished sixth, Wiseguy seventh and Dom Of Mary eighth.

On his only try beyond three and a quarter miles Henry's Friend was pulled up behind Corbetts Cross in the 2024 National Hunt Challenge Cup. 

He appears to have his share of weight here - a comment that also applies to Our Power - while I noted Finn Lambert hard at work some way from home when The Kniphand stayed on to finish second behind Moroder in the Grimthorpe last month.

Rock My Way will need to jump better than last time to give himself a chance, a comment that also applies to Hasthing who wears cheekpieces for the first time. 

When Famous Bridge wore cheekpieces for the first time he scooted away from Apple Away after the last in Haydock's Grand National Trial. He was raised four pounds for that effort, then dropped one after finishing sixth behind Myretown in the Ultima. That still leaves Nicky Richards' charge on a mark of 141 and the stable has been quiet recently, although Summergrounds won the concluding handicap hurdle earlier today.   

Back in February the 11-year-old Magna Sam won the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh by nine and a half lengths off a mark of 114 (Surrey Quest third); he was raised eight pounds for his efforts but still races from out of the handicap tomorrow. 

In 2023 Alastair Ralph's charge finished fifth behind Kitty's Light in this race, two places behind 40/1 shot Flash De Touzaine; Liz Doyle's charge bounced back to form to win a Veterans' Chase at Limerick last month. 

Brandt won the Dublin Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over an extended three and a half miles last time off a mark of 110, with Tiernan Roche claiming five. He races from four pounds out of the handicap tomorrow; the booking of Sean Bowen certainly catches the eye.  

And Alice Stevens, claiming three, has the been given the unenviable task of cajoling former Mullins inmate Mr Incredible to put his best foot forward.

In summary...

I wouldn't be the only one surprised to see no runner from Lucinda Russell's stable in this field - Whistle Stop Tour goes in the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase at 1.43. 

Those on the shortlist include Surrey Quest, Spanish Harlem, Famous Bridge and Magna Sam. 

Surrey Quest looks solid - I'd expect him to reverse Edinburgh National form with Magna Sam on this left-handed track - but a mark six pounds higher than last year is a challenge. 

A mark of 141 looks stiff enough for Famous Bridge but Spanish Harlem makes some appeal - four pounds lower than last year when beaten just over eight lengths. 

Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Spanish Harlem has yet to win a race for W P Mullins but there were hopeful signs at Punchestown last time while the time before he finished 33 lengths behind Nick Rockett in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. 

I'd like to think he can show some improvement on last year's effort.

Spanish Harlem is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally at the time of writing but 14/1 with Paddy Power who pay six places. 

Aintree Grand National 2025

Yesterday marked the 19th anniversary of the blog's very first post. 

If he were still alive today, my Latin teacher would have probably said: 'Jove! Tempus fugit!', then crossed the Via Acacia and rushed into our local Ladbrokes to stick 20 denarii on favourite I Am Maximus for this year's National.

Last year I Am Maximus beat Delta Work seven and a half lengths off a mark of 159 (Minella Indo third, Meetingofthewaters seventh, Coko Beach eleventh and Vanilier fourteenth); he races off 167 tomorrow, bidding to become the first horse to win back-to-back Nationals since Tiger Roll in 2018/19, and the first to carry top weight to victory since Red Rum in 1974. 

This is the second year with a reduced field size of 34 runners; the going is currently described as good to soft and they're due off at 4.00pm.   

Since 2015 a horse aged either eight or nine has won the National, with the one exception being Noble Yeats who won the 2022 renewal when seven.

The market is dominated by a number of Irish trained runners; this year Willie Mullins has six entries, Gordon Elliott five, Gavin Cromwell three. 

Of the Mullins runners, Minella Cocooner will be suited by drying conditions. He won the bet365 Chase on good ground at Sandown last April off 152 (Nick Rockett third, Theeunderthrufive thirteenth). 

Meetingofthewaters didn't quite see out the trip last year in seventh on ground described as good to soft, soft in places. He hasn't appeared in such good form this term but has higher hopes of lasting home on better ground.

Nick Rockett held Intense Raffles threequarters of a length in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse six weeks ago but meets last year's Irish Grand National winner 15 pounds worse off. 

Intense Raffles would probably prefer more cut underfoot.

Three Card Brag is probably Gordon Elliott's best chance; the booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye but stable form is a concern with just two wins from 42 runs in the past fortnight.

Gavin Cromwell has told the TV cameras he can't split his three. 

Stumptown looked to have a hard enough race winning the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham three and a half weeks ago with stablemate Vanilier doing well in the circumstances to finish third, having almost taken the wrong route early on.

Perceval Legallois had Nick Rockett, Three Card Brag, Horantzau D'Airy and Meetingofthewaters in arrears in a Listed Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and has the assistance of Mark Walsh in the saddle.   

Owner J.P.McManus relies on five as he bids to win the race for a fourth time: the well-backed I Am Maximus (W.P.Mullins); Iroko (O.Greenall & J.Guerriero); Perceval Legallois (G.Cromwell); Meetingofthewaters (W.P.Mullins); and Chantry House (N.Henderson).

Hewick famously cost £800 and is famously small but Shark Hanlon's charge has the heart of a lion and famously mugged Bravemansgame to win the 2023 King George at Kempton; drying ground helps his cause. 

At the time of writing Iroko is the only British trained runner near the top of the market. 

This race has been his target since he finished second behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin at this meeting last year; this season connections have campaigned their charge in such a way as to protect his handicap mark of 152.

Paul Nicholls saddles five with Kandoo Kid, the Coral Gold Cup winner in November, probably his best chance. 

Of his other runners Bravemansgame doesn't look the force of old but Threeunderthrufive was beaten just over six lengths on good ground in the 2023 Scottish Grand National at Ayr and showed his current wellbeing when beaten a nose by Victtorino at Ascot seven weeks ago. Harry Cobden rides Kandoo Kid, with Harry Skelton aboard Threeunderthrufive.

The BBC's Grand National Pinstickers' Guide may prove of more use than what follows... 

On Monday evening I bet Beauport each-way at odds of 33/1 with Sky (six places). 

Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge won the 2024 Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and on seasonal debut won the Berkshire National Handicap Chase at Ascot on good ground. 

He's a proven stayer and can handle drying ground. 

On Wednesday Paul Kealy made a similar case in the RP Weekender, stating if the horse were trained in Ireland, he would likely be priced up around the 8/1 - 10/1 mark; there's perhaps some journalistic hyperbole in that statement.  

The two main concerns are he's on a mark 12 pounds higher after Ascot and, on occasions at Uttoxeter, he jumped right, a trait he hadn't shown previously on a left-handed track.

Still, he has been in very good form this term.

Of course, dangers abound everywhere - it's the Grand National! To my mind Iroko and Minella Cocooner pose big threats but, forget that, this evening Betfred stand out from the crowd by paying seven places.

Beauport is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 22/1 with Betfred who are paying the seven places.

Aintree 2025 - Friday

After Willie Mullins trains the winners of the first four races on Thursday's card, here are two selections for Ladies' Day... 

On New Year's Day I bet Lounge Lizard in a race at Cheltenham - watching his jumping there was no cure for anyone's hangover and certainly no way to celebrate the new year.

However five weeks ago he bounced back to form to win on good to soft ground at Huntingdon.

The Topham (4.05) has been the long-term target; he missed last year's renewal after he banged himself and went lame 24 hours before the race. 

Trainer Henry Daly said his charge jumped well and enjoyed himself over these fences in the 2023 Becher (prominent, weakened from two out) but he never got home in soft ground.

The step back to two miles five and drying conditions here are positives; he's quirky but, if he's in the mood, I think he can be competitive.

Lounge Lizard is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 20/1 with bet365 and 18/1 with William Hill, both paying six places.

The concluding conditional jockeys' and amateur riders' handicap hurdle (5.15) looks monstrous but two have piqued interest. 

Afadil appears well handicapped, having finished third in this last year off a mark of 130 and racing off 124 tomorrow.

Last time out he looked a tad unfortunate to be mugged close home by Go Dante in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, losing second spot to Wreckless Eric in the shadow of the post. Connections fit cheekpieces for the first time to help the cause.

Handicap debutants include Celtic Dino, Diamonds For Luck, Jack Hyde and Grimaud; Dylan Johnson prefers Celtic Dino ahead of top weight Lump Sum.

Fiercely Proud brings strong handicap form to the table, having finished sixth in the Greatwood, and then winning the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas. Ben Pauling's charge was found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat when pulled up in the William Hill Hurdle (formerly the Betfair Hurdle) at Newbury in February.

Moon Chime has been well backed during the day and is now 10/1 generally, 12/1 with Ladbrokes. 

After beating Balhambar nine lengths at Stratford last month, joint trainer Graeme McPherson said they were pleased to see Moon Chime back to the horse they thought they had following recent wind surgery. 

The handicapper raised him 11 pounds for that effort; connections hinted that the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock might be next on the agenda after this. 

He needs a good quick two miles and I'd imagine that's what he'll get here; Nick Slatter had been pencilled in to ride but I see Mr Tommie M O'Brien, claiming three, is in the saddle.

I had an each-way interest in Alnilam in the Morebattle at Kelso last time, when I also happened to learn the horse is named after the central star in Orion's belt, located between Mintaka and Alnitak. 

Anyway, Olly Murphy's star looked the winner turning for home but was collared by Cracking Rhapsody on the climb to the line (Old Gregorian noted with a career best in third, Slugger fourth and Cormier sixth). 

This flat track and drying ground will suit and Beau Morgan's five pounds allowance means he's effectively competing off a mark two pounds lower.

Having missed the fancy prices about Moon Chime, I'll take an each-way interest in Alnilam, 14/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

Aintree 2025 - Thursday

Just one selection for the first day of this year's Grand National meeting.

The Kalooki Kid takes his chance in the opening Manifesto Novices' Chase (1.45) yet looks to face a stiff task in this Grade 1 contest. 

Seven of his eight rivals boast a higher rating - Nicky Richards' charge has some 21 pounds to find with Arkle winner Jango Baie. That said, connections hold their grey in high regard and think he'll be good enough to compete in competitive handicaps such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup in the future; at the time of writing bet365 and William Hill offer 33/1 (three places) but I'm not tempted.

Four years ago Ahoy Senor went into everyone's notebook after beating Bravemansgame seven lengths in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle at odds of 66/1 on just his second start over hurdles. 

Lucinda Russell's charge hasn't seen a hurdle in public since; over fences he has tended to look like a horse with a mistake in him. 

His very best form is over the Mildmay fences - his record reads 13223, with two of those defeats behind Shishkin in the 2023 Aintree Bowl and Gerri Colombe in last year's renewal. He takes his chance again this year (3.30) but that looked a bit of a crunching fall he took in the Gold Cup just 20 days ago...

With a few layers paying five places, I'm going to take a chance on one in the Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (4.05), the first race of the meeting run over the National fences.

Current favourite Willitgoahead ran into a place behind Wonderwall in the St James's Place Open Hunters' Chase - often referred to as the amateur riders' Gold Cup - at the Festival 20 days ago (Ontheropes eighth, Bardenstown Lad eleventh). The step back in trip here wouldn't necessarily play to his strengths.

Mr William Biddick was in the plate when Famous Clermont beat Bennys King in this race in 2023 while Bennys King and Annamix finished second and third respectively behind Its On The Line last year. 

This year Mr Biddick is aboard My Drogo who, back in 2021, won the Grade 1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle at this meeting. Owned and bred by Mr & Mrs Richard Kelvin-Hughes, My Drogo was moved out of Dan Skelton's yard in December, presumably with this race as a target.

A pertinent piece of form is the Walrus Open Hunters' Chase run at Haydock seven weeks ago. 

That day My Drogo reeled in Gracchus De Balme after the last, with Jet Plane, following a bad mistake at the final flight, finishing third, some six lengths behind the winner.

10 days later Gracchus De Balme was pulled up behind Bennys King in the Cottesmore Open Hunters' Chase at Leicester (Autonomous Cloud second, Bothwell Bridge third). 

At 14 years of age Bennys King is the oldest horse in this race but on past form he'll have more behind him than in front at the finish. 

Lifetime Ambition's fourth over these fences behind Al Dancer in the 2022 Grand Sefton is noteworthy; Percussion has performed well over these fences in the past but is likely to be outpaced at this distance.

Senior Citizen has been placed in a Grand Sefton and a Topham when trained by Alan King; on his first run for Alan Hill he won a three mile point 15 lengths and apparently underwent wind surgery less than three weeks ago.

Coming back to that Haydock form, there wouldn't be an awful lot between My Drogo and Gracchus De Balme, while Jet Plane would have finished closer to the leading pair with a better leap at the last. The market doesn't reflect the form with My Drogo 6/1 generally, Gracchus De Balme 20/1 and Jet Plane 28/1.

Gracchus De Balme is tempting but the Leicester run is disconcerting - just 10 days after Haydock it probably came too quickly. At the prices, I'll chance Jet Plane.

Jet Plane is the each-way selection, at the time of writing 28/1 with William Hill who pay five places. 

Aintree aspirants

Seven days after this year's Gold Cup, I found myself in Cheltenham - Inothewayurthinkin. 

Actually, I was there for my daughter's wedding.

In the evening of the following day, the day after the main event in a manner of speaking, while my wife and I were looking for a quiet place to eat with the aim of recharging run-down batteries, we came across a review of The Tivoli, penned by The Times' restaurant critic Giles Coren.

Mr Coren describes the establishment as '...a wonderful, huge old building on Andover Road in the grand/shabby curate's egg of a town that is Cheltenham.' 

Now, for at least 40 years I've considered Cheltenham - the home of National Hunt racing - a place of sacred pilgrimage, to be spoken of in revered, hushed tones only; the tweed set may baulk a little at Mr Coren's irreverence but I found it singularly refreshing.

The accompaniment to our meal at The Tivoli was a Blues playlist that proved most invigorating; as I paid the bill and handed my feedback form to the waitress, I asked if she would be so kind as to send me details of the playlist.

To date, I haven't heard a pip, and it must be a 33/1 longshot I ever will. 

I've noticed that about organisations generally - they have no qualms in pestering you for feedback yet when you ask for feedback on your feedback, they can't be bothered to respond...

Anyway, the Lincoln at Doncaster takes centre stage tomorrow; Ascot's card on Sunday - the main jumps meeting of the weekend - has seen field sizes decimated by the drying ground. 

Court Cian goes in the finale at 5.40 - an acquaintance of mine owns a share. 

Apparently the gelding's comfortable win at Market Rasen last time came as a bit of a surprise to connections so I might give the guy a bell beforehand, just to see what they're expecting this time around.  

With Aintree on the horizon, I've spent a bit of time looking for horses whose connections have, at some point previously, indicated this forthcoming Aintree meet was a possible target. 

The list below is far from exhaustive and I'm sure the whole exercise will prove little more than an exercise in futile displacement activity; still, it beats watching the news on the television.

Arayapearl / Peter & Mickey Bowen

Straight from the Stable [RP Weekender 26-30.03.25]:

"She has never run before but works really well at home. We haven't had time to give her a run in between but her work is better than any of our youngsters. She's a really nice filly and will run in the Aintree bumper as well. She'd be my dark horse." 

Battle Born Lad / Mark Walford 

Talented but quirky individual.

After passing the post to win the Grade 2 Prestige Novices' Hurdle at Haydock 15.02.25, he unseated jockey Jamie Hamilton. Later the jockey said:

"He's not an easy ride as he's free-going, he hangs and always looks for a way out. He was still full of it, I turned in and couldn't believe how well I was going. I'd say Cheltenham would be too soon, but there's always Aintree." 

Castle Carrock / Alan .King  

Bought out of Nicky Richards' stable for £100,000 after winning a bumper at Ayr on good ground. Beat 2/9f Diva Luna in a Sandown novice 24.01.25 and then third behind Jet To Vegas in the Grade 2 Premier Novices' Hurdle at Kelso 01.03.25. Trainer states [RP Weekender 26-30.03.25]:

"Castle Carrock will be in the 2m and 2m 4f novice hurdles. If they look red hot, we have the option of giving him an extra week and waiting for Ayr instead." 

Charisma Cat / Alan King

Won the Listed mares' bumper at Sandown 08.03.25. Trainer states [RP Weekender 26-30.03.25]:

"...Charisma Cat is a possible for the mares' bumper on the opening day. 

"I haven't done a lot with her since her win at Sandown and I'd want to be 100 per cent happy with her if I was to run. Otherwise we'll put her away."

Holds an entry (5.15 Thursday)

Dedicated Hero / Sandy Thomson 

After winning the Grade 2 Rossington Main Hurdle at Haydock 18.01.25 rider Ryan Mania said:

"The original plan was the Premier Hurdle at Kelso as he's won twice there and then maybe Aintree..."

Declared a non-runner on the day in Kelso's Premier Hurdle.

Fingle Bridge / Olly Murphy 

Beat Regent's Stroll in a Listed novice at Exeter 09.02.25; needs proper soft ground. 

Horaces Pearl / Fergal O'Brien 

Won Newbury novice 28.02.25 over extended 2m 4f; jumping still a work in progress. Beat stablemate Tripoli Flyer in last season's Aintree bumper. Possible target: Grade 1 novice race.

Jet To Vegas / Lucinda Russell 

Won Grade 2 Premier Novices' Hurdle at Kelso 01.03.25 despite jumping right, Castle Carrock nine and a half lengths third. Afterwards trainer said:

"He normally has to go right handed but it was worth taking a chance here. As he got tired, he jumped straight, when he was fresh he jumped right handed. He'll go to Aintree."

Jurancon / David Pipe  

Has form behind The Kemble Brewery and beat Tripoli Flyer in a Chepstow maiden 06.11.24. After winning on handicap debut at Newbury 01.03.25, trainer David Pipe said:

"He has got a great attitude, which is half the battle, and we might have a look at Aintree with him."  

Appears best suited by soft ground.

Live Conti / Dan Skelton 

Formerly with Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm in France. Won at Wetherby on stable debut for current connections 12.02.25 and was quoted a 20/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle. After that Wetherby win the trainer said:

"We got Live Conti in November and I'm glad we didn't run him earlier as he's really improved in the last month and keeps thriving. 

"The form of his Auteuil race is very good and we'll decide whether we go to Cheltenham or go to Aintree, but he's a horse who is further down the line as he's already quite furnished and strong."

Holds entry in Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (2.30 Thursday)

Lounge Lizard / Henry Daly 

I tipped Lounge Lizard for a race at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. After the event (fourth, 21 lengths behind Springwell Bay) I wrote that his jumping 'left a lot to be desired, looking laboured and cumbersome on more than one occasion'. 

In an apparent return to form, the rascal won the Prestige Developments John Bigg "Oxo" Handicap Chase at Huntingdon 02.03.25. After the race the trainer said:

"Lounge Lizard was unfortunate because it absolutely bucketed it last time and he doesn't like that wet ground. [Pulled up behind El Rio at Kempton 07.02.25]. I'm not sure if he didn't get a bit bored in the closing stages today. He jumped very nicely today and the plan is Aintree [Topham]. We got as far as declaring him last year, but unfortunately he went lame 24 hours before because he banged himself. He ran in the Becher last term and ran well, jumped well and enjoyed it, but it was very soft and he never got home. We set out our stall to run in the race last year and again this year."   

At the time of writing quoted 25/1 for the Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 Friday); needs 13 runners to scratch to make the cut. 

Moon Chime / D.Killahena & Graeme McPherson 

Back on track at Stratford last time 10.03.25. After that race Graeme McPherson said:

"It's nice to see Moon Chime back and like the horse we thought we had. We had his wind done after Carlisle and at Ludlow last month it didn't work, but everything fell into place there. I think we'll look at the two-mile conditionals' race at Aintree [on April 4]. We've got a great lad in Nick Slatter who has won on him so the race could be tailor-made for him. Then possibly we can go on to the Swinton at Haydock. He loves a good quick two miles and we can look at better races again."  

Rubber Ball / Neil King 

Aintree mooted a possibility after Rubber Ball won a novice hurdle at Newbury 08.02.25. 

The Kalooki Kid / Nicky Richards 

Won the Scottish Champion Chase at Musselburgh over an extended two mile four furlong trip 01.02.25. After the race the trainer said:

"The Kalooki Kid is a good traveller, good jumper and that was a good display on just his third chase. He's doing well for a young horse and my owners are local from Kirkcaldy so they are over the moon. I don't know what the handicapper will do, but I think he's got Aintree written all over him. There's a two-and-a-half-mile chase that might suit him, and looking towards next year, something like the Paddy Power at Cheltenham might suit." 

Holds an entry in the Manifesto Novices' Chase (1.45 Thursday)

There Runs Mary / Olly Murphy. 

Cost 105,000 euros. Wins a mares' bumper at Wincanton 30.01.25 in a time 7.7 seconds faster than the second division of the race. Next time unable to concede weight to Heron In The Park in mares' bumper at Newbury 01.03.25. Mares' bumper identified as a possible target but not entered up.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - the betting debrief

This year seven of the blog's eight highlighted selections came under starter's orders over the four days - Langer Dan was a non-runner, declared to be suffering from a respiratory infection on the morning of the Stayers' Hurdle.

Shown below the recorded loss to level stakes (1 point win, 0.5 points each-way with each-way returns calculated to one fifth the odds):  

Outlay over four days: 7 points

Return over four days: 1.9 points

Profit / Loss: -5.1 points

Loss as percentage of outlay: 72.86%

Brief notes on individual selections:

Malina Girl (bet struck:14/1 each-way; third in Ultima)

Good run behind Myretown and The Changing Man. Winner impressive.

Herakles Westwood (bet struck: 20/1 each-way; seventh in National Hunt Challenge Cup)

Towards rear; never threatened.

Potters Charm (bet struck: 14/1 each-way; fifth in Turners)

Outpaced by market principals off home bend.

Libberty Hunter (bet struck: 33/1 each-way; fell in Champion Chase)

Four lengths down and creeping into contention when falling three out.

Primoz (bet struck: 20/1 each-way; fourteenth in Grand Annual)

Lost any chance in chaotic start.

Protektorat (bet struck: 6/1 win; fourth in Ryanair) 

Outpaced from three out; winner Fact To File impressive.

Our Champ (bet struck: 50/1 each-way; sixth in County Hurdle)

Led; tapped for toe off home bend, stayed on up the hill. 

The Champion Hurdle set the tone for a dramatic week with the two former winners in the field, Constitution Hill and State Man, both falling, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. Golden Ace, trained by Jeremy Scott, picked up the pieces.

Inothewayurthinkin denied Galopin Des Champs a third victory in the Gold Cup while Fact To File put up an imperious display in the Ryanair.   

Marine Nationale, forever associated with Michael O'Sullivan, proved a fitting winner of the Champion Chase while Bob Olinger denied Teahupoo in the Stayers' Hurdle.

The final result of the Prestbury Cup: Great Britain 8 Ireland 20

Just one British trained runner contested the Supreme and there were no British entries in a final field of seven in the Brown Advisory. 

Once again Willie Mullins was the leading trainer at the Festival, equalling his previous record total of 10 winners. He fielded 11 of the 18 runners in the Triumph and won it with 100/1 shot Poniros who was racing over hurdles for the very first time. 

Shambolic starts and the drop in attendance figures are two topics we're likely to hear more about in the coming days.  

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Friday

Earlier today Frank Keogh reported that the attendance on Wednesday was the lowest seen at the Festival since 1993.

Fact To File looked something special in the Ryanair this afternoon and, in other news, Frankie Dettori has announced he's filing for bankruptcy...

Malina Girl ran a creditable third on Tuesday but otherwise it has been a miserable, downward spiral for the blog's selections. Only one pick for the final day - and I'm not confident it's going to turn the tide... 

1.20 Triumph Hurdle

No bet for me in a race I'm not particularly fond of. 

Willie Mullins saddles 11 of the 18 runners; Paul Townend rides filly Lady Vega Allen. 

Tom Segal penned a piece in the RP Weekender [29.01-02.02] headlined "Flat-bred East India Dock set to find Triumph beyond him". To summarise, most of the current Flat bred horses aren't bred to stay any further than a mile whereas Jumps bred horses are stronger - and classier. 

Tom believes East India Dock won't be strong (or classy) enough to compete with the likes of Lulamba or a yet-to-be-revealed Mullins marvel.

Last time out East India Dock beat Stencil 10 lengths over the Triumph Hurdle course and distance on Trials Day; Stencil, sent off 11/4 favourite for the Fred Winter on Tuesday, finished down the field in 15th, with the comment 'weakened before the last' noted.

As a slight digression, I see East India Dock had a Flat rating of 89, Mondo Man a Flat rating of 111. 

The issue for the Gary Moore trained Mondo Man is he needs to learn to settle - he patently failed to do so in the Adonis at Kempton three weeks ago. On his previous run, in receipt of 10 pounds, he finished three and a half lengths behind Lulamba, despite having pulled hard in rear; he's in the same ownership as Botox Has and Nassalam.

Back in 2020 the same yard ran Goshen  - Flat rating of 80 at the time - in this race; ten lengths clear coming to the last, he made a mistake and dumped Jamie Moore on the turf. 

Connections fit a hood for the first time tomorrow and Brian Hughes replaces Caoilin Quinn in the saddle. I'll keep an eye out for the partnership during the race - a decent pace should help their cause.

2.00 County Hurdle

Sixteen declared. 

Absurde won this last year off 138 before embarking on a Flat campaign that culminated in a trip to Australia; this year he goes off 146. 

Willie Mullins' charge benefits from a hold-up ride and likes to weave his way through the field at the business end of a race. Last time out he finished fifth in the Melbourne Cup behind Knight's Choice, beaten under two lengths.

Paul Townend rides stablemate Kargese. Last time out this one was beaten at odds of 2/5f in the Warfield Mares' Hurdle run on good ground at Ascot. Since 2010 the Mullins yard has trained the winner of this on seven occasions.

The Skelton yard regularly targets this race and have had plenty of success in recent years with Superb Story (2016); Mohaayed (2018); Ch'tibello (2019) and Faivoir (2023). Valgrand flies the flag this year but he ran no sort of race when last seen behind Ooh Betty at Kempton over Christmas.

Hansard was fourth in that Kempton race and subsequently ran well behind Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday!) in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. The yard is in better form now, operating at a 25% win strike rate over the past fortnight.

Cracking Rhapsody looked good in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso 13 days ago; connections will pick up a bonus if they win here but Ewan Whillans' charge has tended to show his very best form at Kelso. 

I'm going to have a bet on Our Champ in this because I think he's overpriced at 50/1 provided the ground has dried out sufficiently and the showers stay away. 

Back in October he won the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle run on good ground at Ascot, beating Break My Soul a nose with Secret Squirrel third, Afadil fourth and Fiercely Proud falling when disputing second. 

The yard were going through a lean spell at the time - as they are now - but he got the job done that day despite Freddie Gordon dropping his whip in the final 110 yards. 

Secret Squirrel has subsequently won a competitive handicap at Windsor, Afadil was third in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last Saturday while Fiercely Proud reversed form with the selection in the Ladbrokes at Ascot in December run on good to soft ground.

I bet Our Champ in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury five weeks ago where soft ground went against him; he finished eighth behind Joyeuse (Secret Squirrel fell at the last, Fiercely Proud pulled up and later found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat).

He ran without the tongue-tie at Newbury but it's back in place now. He has won on the Old Course here and ran third behind Tintintin on the New Course last April.

In a stable tour article [RP Weekender 26.02-02.03] handler Chris Gordon said:

"He'll go for the County Hurdle and he'll run really well if it dries up."

At the time of writing the going on the New Course is good to soft - the showers will need to stay away before the off.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 50/1 with William Hill and bet365, both paying five places. 

4.00 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Galopin Des Champs will face eight rivals in his bid to win a third successive Gold Cup. 

Henrietta Knight, who trained Best Mate to achieve the feat (2002 -2004), thinks he will win.

Banbridge is no pushover on drying ground while course and distance winner Inothewayurthinkin, supplemented at a cost of £25,000, is 7/1 favourite for the Aintree Grand National.

Inothewayurthinkin and Monty's Star were fourth and fifth respectively behind Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Corbetts Cross didn't appear to have the best prep behind Pic D'Orhy at Ascot last month and wouldn't be suited by drying ground while The Real Whacker and Gentlemansgame were both pulled up in this race last year.

Ahoy Senor has shown his best form at Aintree, Royal Pagaille at Haydock.

At 6/1 Banbridge was an each-way bet to nothing but the price has disappeared; a race to watch and savour then.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Thursday

An emotional second day with victories for Marine Nationale in the Champion Chase and Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual.

Two days in, and there have been some unsatisfactory starts to races - a debate for another day, no doubt.

A couple of suggestions for Thursday...

3.20 Ryanair Chase

A hot looking renewal.

Favourite Fact To File won the Brown Advisory here last year despite jumping right on occasions. 

He beat the current Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs over two miles three and a half in November and has since twice finished behind Galopin Des Champs over an extended three miles at Leopardstown - no disgrace at all - in the Savills Chase over Christmas and in the Irish Gold Cup last month.

I'm guessing connections have reasoned they're not going to beat Galopin Des Champs so they step back in trip here. Connections of last year's winner, Protektorat, followed a similar path after finishing fifth behind the same horse in the 2023 Gold Cup.

Protektorat did the blog a favour in this race last year and this has been his target. 

Things went awry in the Peterborough Chase won by Djelo where hold-up tactics patently failed to work. Allowed to bowl along in front at Windsor next time, Dan Skelton's charge comfortably beat that rival 23 lengths. 

He is seen at his best sitting just off a strong pace which he's likely to get with Il Est Francais in the field.

Il Est Francais went into everyone's notebook when jumping like a stag to make all and win the 2023 renewal of the Kauto Star at Kempton; he might prove difficult to catch on the front end. Since moving to Tom George in 2022 all his racing has been at either Auteuil or Kempton Park.

Henry De Bromhead saddles three; the yard is slowly emerging from a lean spell. 

Jungle Boogie may be 11 years of age but he doesn't have many miles on the clock (just five chase starts to date). Sixth in last year's Gold Cup - mistake three out when travelling well enough - he's another to step back in distance. On his sole start since, he won comfortably at Ascot in December although main rival Iroko (11/8f) was hampered and came a cropper at the first.

Envoi Allen, another 11 year old, won the 2023 renewal of this race and finished second behind Protektorat last year. Rachael Blackmore rides, suggesting this one might be the stable's main hope.

Heart Wood finished seven and a half lengths adrift of Fact To File in the Savills Chase over Christmas.

Master Chewy showed plenty of resolve when beating Libberty Hunter in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time; this represents his first chase start beyond two miles one furlong.

Hang In There likes decent ground but on his first run since November he's likely to have other targets during the spring / summer. 

Only three horses older than nine have won this since the inaugural running in 2005: Fondmort (2006); Our Vic (2008); and Albertas Run (2011). 

I'm staying loyal to Protektorat.

Protektorat is the win selection, generally a 6/1 shot.

4.00 Stayers' Hurdle

Teahupoo won this last year but could prove vulnerable on drying ground. 

Handler Joseph O'Brien had a strong word for Home By The Lee in a TV snippet on Tuesday..

Connections seem confident Lucky Place can stay this trip. He gave weight and a beating to Gowel Road, Golden Ace (won the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday), and Langer Dan on New Year's Day.

Off a mark of 145 The Wallpark gave Gowel Road four pounds and a two and a half length beating in a Pertemps qualifier over course and distance in the autumn. He made up plenty of ground late on in the Long Walk to finish fourth behind Crambo last time; drying ground will suit.

Langer Dan isn't the easiest to predict but he tends to show his best form at this time of year. Second behind a horse called Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 renewal of the Martin Pipe, he won the Coral Cup in 2023 and 2024 and steps up to three miles for the first time.

Dan Skelton said in a stable tour before the start of the core season:

"I do have concerns about how he behaves in the autumn and the winter because historically he hasn't been good. 

"He just gets a lot easier in the spring...

"Unless the first thee runs are absolutely diabolical we want to have a go at the Stayers' Hurdle."

Bob Olinger has twice finished behind Home By The Lee this season.

If Crambo could transfer his Ascot form to Cheltenham (won the last two renewals of the Long Walk Hurdle) he would be no 28/1 shot. Johnny Burke reported he ran flat in this last year when ninth while a bad mistake at the fifth last saw him finish fifth behind Gowel Road in the Cleeve on Trials Day (Monmiral second but declared a non-runner).

Nemean Lion has been in rude health this term, winning at Windsor in January (Langer Dan fifth) and beating Steel Ally a neck in the National Spirit at Fontwell. He steps up to three miles for the first time here, having been withdrawn from the Rendlesham at Haydock last month on account of the ground. 

After the National Spirit connections were reportedly thinking of bypassing this meet but have clearly had a change of heart. At the time Kerry Lee said:

"What a tough little cookie. Neman Lion loves racing and loves a fight.

"I think this gives me three possibilities. We might look at Auteuil, Fairyhouse and then there's of course the option of a Grade 1 at Aintree, whether over two and a half miles or three. He had a hard race so we'll have to see how he is in a couple of weeks." 

The suspicion is this may come too soon after the Fontwell race.

Buddy One was fourth in this race last year, beaten under nine lengths, but he doesn't appear to have taken too well to chasing this term. Last time out, reverting back to hurdles, he was pulled up behind Rocky Diamond in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park.

At 6/1 Home By The Lee looks an each-way bet to nothing against Teahupoo; The Wallpark has been well supported today.

It's inherently risky but I'm going to chance Langer Dan; he appeared to stay three miles when third behind Strong Leader in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and this was the stated plan in the autumn. 

Two consecutive wins in the Coral Cup read well; I'll be hoping the horse has engaged 'spring' mode.  

Langer Dan is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally, with most layers paying four places. 

I won't have a bet in the prosaically named TrustATrader Plate (4.40) but I've seen a comment somewhere yet have struggled to dig it out... 

Connections think course and distance winner Jagwar is a Graded level performer. If that's the case, he'll need to go close in this handicap off his current mark.

Finally, I note that Aworkinprogress, having missed the cut for the National Hunt Challenge Cup on Tuesday, has missed the cut for the Kim Muir at 5.20 but he holds an entry in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on Saturday for which he is currently priced up 6/1 favourite.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Wednesday

Still recovering from the high drama of the Champion Hurdle earlier this afternoon in which the two previous winners, Constitution Hill and State Man, both fell, the former four from home, the latter at the last when five lengths clear. 

Golden Ace (25/1) won, with Burdett Road (66/1) second and Winter Fog (150/1) third; the trifecta paid £4,432. 90.

1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle

Writing in the RP Weekender before the Dublin Racing Festival, Tom Segal was of the opinion The New Lion was the most exciting novice seen this season. Then Final Demand beat Wingmen 12 lengths in impressive style at Leopardstown. 

At the time of writing Final Demand and The New Lion share favouritism.

Yellow Clay beat Wingmen 11 lengths at Naas at the beginning of the year. 

In receipt of five pounds Sixmilebridge beat Potters Charm eight and a half lengths on the New Course on Trials Day. After the race Team Twiston-Davies admitted they had run there 'as an afterthought' and regretted doing so.  

Before that defeat Potters Charm had won twice on the Old Course in the autumn and then won the Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day. 

Back on the Old Course, and sporting a first-time tongue-tie, Potters Charm rates an each-way play.

Potters Charm is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing available at 14/1 with most layers. 

4.00 Champion Chase

Over the years I've had some wagers in this: Pearlyman, Latalomne - going well and fell two out two years on the trot, Special Tiara and, in 2004, Venn Ottery each-way @ 40/1. 

Owner Mr O.J. Carter declared Venn Ottery for the race without telling trainer, Mr P. Nicholls; unfortunately Mr Carter didn't declare the tongue-tie... 

The notes in-running state: "disputed second and going well two out, soon no chance with winner (Azertyuiop), ridden and weakened rapidly run-in."

Venn Ottery eventually finished fifth, beaten 23 lengths, but to this day I still maintain, if he had run with a tongue-tie, as intended...

Favourites have only won three of the past ten renewals but Jonbon has had a season to remember, winning the Schloer, the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House (Energumene second); many will feel he would be a deserved winner.

He was declared a non-runner for last year's renewal on account of the poor form of the Henderson yard at the time; prior to that he hadn't jumped well on the New Course when mugged by Elixir Du Nutz in the re-arranged Clarence House.

Energumene, owned by Tony Bloom, beat Captain Guinness 10 lengths in the 2023 renewal and isn't lightly dismissed, even at the age of 11. 

Mr Bloom also owns the heavily backed Bunting who has his first run in a handicap in the Coral Cup (2.40); given a mark of 135 by the Irish handicapper, he races off 139 in that two mile five contest. 

At Leopardstown over Christmas Solness beat Marine Nationale (third), Captain Guinness (fifth) and Found A Fitfy (pulled up). 

Then at the Dublin Racing Festival Joseph O'Brien's charge beat Marine Nationale (second), Quilixios (fourth) and Captain Guinness (sixth) - that looked a hard enough race on yielding ground and Marine Nationale posed a viable threat after the last.

Found A Fifty gave Solness seven pounds and a neck beating at Navan in November despite jumping right on occasions; that tendency to go right won't help his cause here. 

I'm pleased to see connections of Libberty Hunter have opted for this rather than the Grand Annual in which he was second last year (behind Unanswered Prayers) on just his fourth start over fences. 

Owners Mr & Mrs William Rucker have adopted a patient approach with this one; he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock for a nine year old. Ideally he wants softer ground but the uphill finish should play to his strengths and I think he can outrun odds of 33/1 - provided he can keep tabs on the early pace. 

The ratings tells us he has something to find with every other runner in this field but I like this horse and will have a bet.

Libberty Hunter is the each-way selection, 33/1 generally. 

4.40 Grand Annual

I'm going to take an interest in Primoz on the back of this comment made by trainer Lucinda Russell at Kelso on 14.02.25:

"Primoz is one of the most talented horses we've dealt with and we've changed his training programme a bit. I don't know where he'll go next but he's a very talented horse if we can get some consistency into him." 

I wrote that just before the yard's Myretown proved a blot on the handicap in the Ultima earlier today.

Primoz is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 in places with layers paying five places.

I'll pass on the Brown Advisory - a final field of seven all trained in Ireland -  and I usually end up feeling a bit dizzy after the Cross Country. My nap for the bumper, Windbeneathmywings, is out injured. That's racing, as they say. 

This evening spare a thought for Paul Townend. Five lengths clear coming to the last and another Champion Hurdle beckons. A long stride, a hurdle clipped, State Man falls, and it all disappears before your very eyes.

Cheltenham Festival 2025 - Tuesday

I'm struggling to recall a run-up to the Festival quite like it.

Greg Wood talks of the Festival at a crossroads in The Guardian while Cheltenham's new chief executive, Guy Lavender, predicts a fall in attendance from last year's figure of 229,999 (over four days).

The Sunday Times' royal editor Roya Nikkhah, in conversation with Nicky Henderson, talks of 'the 70,000-strong crowd expected on the first day'; that figure might prove optimistic.

Layers are reportedly bracing themselves as the following first day accumulator has proved popular with punters: Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme); Majboro (Arkle); Lossiemouth (Mares' Hurdle); and Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle).

Beware bookmakers crying wolf.

Just two British trained runners contest the Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20), the race this year named in memory of the jockey who won the 2023 renewal aboard Marine Nationale and died from injuries sustained in a fall at Thurles on February 6th.

Tripoli Flyer, trained by Fergal O'Brien, didn't jump particularly well when winning the Dovecote at Kempton 17 days ago but after the race his handler said:

"Tripoli Flyer has got a huge engine. Johnny [Burke] said you can put him where you want in a race, he's got an explosive bit of speed about him.

"I think he's genuinely better going right-handed and he does jump a bit right, but if it's nice ground I think he's earned his chance to go to the Supreme." 

Paul Nicholls saddles Tutti Quanti; on his blog the handler says:

"...on all known form he has a mountain to climb in this Grade 1."

Majboro faces just four opponents in the Arkle (2.00), Constitution Hill six in the Champion Hurdle (4.00). 

In receipt of the mares' allowance Brighterdaysahead looks a threat to the current champion whose speed over the hurdles is a sight to behold; I've no intention of having a bet in the race.  

For those considering a wager in a handicap, Kevin Blake provides a useful analysis of the marks allocated to Irish trained runners, along with a potted history of the trials and tribulations encountered by British and Irish handicappers in recent times.

Two each-way suggestions for Tuesday; the going on the Old Course is described as good to soft.

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Before his last run in the Reynoldstown three and a half weeks ago, The Changing Man had contested a number of competitive handicaps during the season, finishing second in the Rehearsal at Newcastle, second in the Howden Silver Cup at Ascot and second in the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster. 

By comparison, the win in the Reynoldstown had the look of a genteel schooling session with odds-on favourite and main rival Jingko Blue sprawling on landing at the third and unseating Nico De Boinville; the handicapper reacted by raising The Changing Man two pounds. 

Course and distance winner Broadway Boy likes to race from the front and was an excellent second behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury late in November, with Victtorino third and Henry's Friend fifth. 

Perhaps that race took more out of him than initially thought as he didn't jump well at the track on New Year's Day. He has been given every chance to recuperate.

Prior to the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton I'm sure I heard Sam Thomas describe runaway winner Katate Dori as 'slow'. He looked anything but that day, beating Hyland an eased-down 15 lengths. 

12 pounds higher in the handicap now, he has done a lot of his racing on right-handed tracks.

Both Lucinda Russell trained runners look unexposed. 

Myretown likes to race from the front whereas Whistle Stop Tour gained experience at the track last time when fifth behind Jagwar over a trip shorter than ideal. 

The trainer nominated the latter as her lively outsider of the week in the RP Cheltenham The Ultimate Guide publication.

Victtorino had a hard enough race when beating Threeunderthrufive a nose at Ascot 24 days ago while Henry's Friend meets Broadway Boy on worse terms than in the Coral Gold Cup.

Two under consideration are Malina Girl and Famous Bridge.

Malina Girl has run well here previously and back in December 2023 looked a threat to all when coming to grief three out in a race won by Broadway Boy; she was on a mark of 146 that day and goes off 142 tomorrow. The last Irish trained winner of this was Dun Doire in 2006.

Famous Bridge, fourth in this last year off 139, goes off 142 after scooting away from Apple Away to win the Grand National Trial at Haydock 24 days ago. First-time cheekpieces seemed to bring out improvement last time and they're retained here.

Malina Girl is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 generally, with several layers paying six places. 

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have both won three renewals in the past ten years; this is the first year the race will be run as a handicap.

Favourite Now Is The Hour beat Don't Rightly Know 17 lengths in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices' Hurdle at Haydock 12 months ago. On his four subsequent starts - all over fences - he hasn't  got his head in front but he couldn't quite reach the leaders at Navan seven weeks ago. 

Haiti Couleurs beat Transmission two and threequarters length at Cheltenham back in December over an extended three mile one furlong trip; they look closely matched. The fourth that day, Moon D'Orange, beat Grandeur D;Ame a short head in a handicap at the track on Trials Day.

I've just watched a replay of that race in December - Haiti Couleurs showed up prominently and jumped well while Transmission was slightly detached in rear for much of the trip, jumping low and out to his right on occasions. In addition he appeared slow at a couple of fences but the further they went, the more involved he became - the extra half mile here looks sure to suit.

Rebecca Curtis said of Haiti Couleurs [RP Weekender 05-09.02.25]:

"... the National Hunt Chase is the plan. I think it'll be the perfect race for him because I think the further he goes the better he'll be. We probably won't run before the festival to try to keep the mark of 135, although we have the option of a spin over hurdles." [third behind Santos Blue, Newbury, 08.02.25.]

Will Do was second over three miles three furlongs in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown 19 days ago. He looks Gordon Elliott's best chance; Jack Kennedy rides, having returned from injury on March 3rd.

Aworkinprogress has just missed the cut but is four from four over fences, winning at Lingfield last time; he's a horse for next year.

Resplendent Grey didn't jump particularly well behind Jagwar last time but has been the subject of market support.

Herakles Westwood won well at Windsor on his penultimate start (Gericault Roque third, Kyntara pulled up) and then ran flat at Newbury next time - I think he's better than he showed there. The step up in trip is a bit of a step into the unknown.

Gericault Roque has clearly had problems but back in 2022 he finished second in the Classic Chase at Warwick off 133, second in the Ultima behind Corach Rambler off 138 and third behind Le Milos in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury off a mark of 139. His third at Windsor in January was his first run in more than two years.

With Gericault Roque as low as 8/1 at the time of writing, I'm going to chance Herakles Westwood.

Herakles Westwood is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

Sandown's 2025 Imperial Cup

It's a spirited soul who saunters into the surreal world of slots.

Back in October 2020 Mrs Corrine Durber thought she had won a 'monster jackpot' totalling £1,097,132.71 on a Paddy Power slot described as 'a combination of a fruit machine and a wheel-of-fortune style game'.

Claiming a mapping error, Paddy Power only paid out the daily jackpot of £20,265.15 so Mrs Durber decided to sue PPB Entertainment. 

Earlier this week, four and a half years later, Mr Justice Ritchie ruled in her favour.

Mrs Durber said:

"I will never bet with them ever again."

At one point in court, Philip Hinks, counsel for PPB Entertainment, said what was shown on a customer's screen was irrelevant 'wallpaper'.

In the past, when I've tried using a similar line with my bank, I've been given extremely short shrift...   

Anyway, enough; take a look at this Tom Segal quotation from this week's RP Weekender:

"...it's just that on most Saturdays there are better betting opportunities for a value-based approach than there are throughout the whole of the Cheltenham Festival." 

With comments like that I thought I'd take the hint, have a stab at tomorrow's Imperial Cup (2.25 Sandown), and, in the process, generate my own irrelevant wallpaper. 

17 have been declared; the going on the hurdles track is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

This year there's a bonus on offer - the first time since 2021: £100,000 to the winner of this who goes on to win any race at Cheltenham next week. 

The following horses hold Festival entries: Afadil (County); Batman Girac (County); Bo Zenith (Coral Cup / Martin Pipe); Go Dante (County); Knickerbockerglory (County); Lump Sum (County); Ooh Betty (County); Spirits Bay (Coral Cup); Tapley (Jack Richards / Martin Pipe); and We're Red And Blue (County).

Lump Sum takes his chance with the result that the handicap has a lop-sided look to it; just four in the field carry more than 11-00 and only six are rated above the lowest rated winner of the past ten years - London Prize won off 128 in 2017.

Two potentially well-handicapped runners are Go Dante and Afadil.

Go Dante pipped Faivoir a nose to win last year's renewal off a mark of 129 and goes off 127 tomorrow.

Needless to say, Olly Murphy's charge hasn't been in such good form this term but his seventh place behind facile winner Joyeuse in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury four weeks ago (Lump Sum second, King William Rufus sixth) hinted at a possible return to form. Since 2000 only one nine-year-old has come home in front - Scorned in 2004. 

Afadil won the 2024 running of the Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh off a mark of 124, and then, racing off a mark of 130 next time, finished fifth in the corresponding race at the Cheltenham Festival, under five lengths behind Absurde.

Last time out he was beaten a length by Welsh Charger in this year's Scottish County Hurdle and has been raised two pounds for that effort - to 122.

At the time of writing Bo Zenith heads the market; this one has had two outings since moving from Gary Moore's yard in October and both represent pertinent pieces of form.

On seasonal debut he finished third behind Mirabad in the Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (Wreckless Eric second, To Chase A Dream fourth, Spirits Bay fifth and Tintintin sixth).  

Next time he appeared outpaced on better ground over and extended two miles three when fifth behind Altobelli at Ascot.

Wreckless Eric has made good progress since moving from Ben Pauling's yard in the autumn; he will appreciate drying ground but stable form is still something of a concern.

Having won over an extended two miles three at Doncaster, To Chase A Dream is likely to appreciate Sandown's stiff finish.

Last time out Spirits Bay finished third behind Constitution Hill in the International Hurdle and has been well supported in the market.

Despite his price Tintintin brings respectable form to the table - third behind runaway winner Pickanumber in the Swinton last May (Tapley second, Afadil eleventh) and fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood (Go Dante ninth).

Bought for 150,000 euros, Batman Girac  has yet to win a race for Simon Munir and Isaac Souede; last time the gelding was three lengths down and staying on when falling at the final flight in a Listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Course and distance winner Knickerbockerglory beat Nemean Lion eight lengths on seasonal debut - that reads well - and finished third behind Secret Squirrel on soft ground at Windsor seven weeks ago (Hardy Du Seuil fifth, Wreckless Eric sixth, Go Dante eleventh). 

Ooh Betty also boasts course and distance winning form and ran well in a Grade 2 Mares' Hurdle on good ground at Ascot last time, leading off the home turn but losing two places on the run-in, eventually finishing third behind Take No Chances and Kargese.

On his blog Paul Nicholls reports Sorceleur 'took a blow before keeping on to finish third' behind Jurancon at Newbury last week. There has been some market support this evening.

That one races from one pound out of the handicap, as does We're Red And Blue, stablemate of Wreckless Eric, while Big Ginge goes from five pounds out of the handicap and remains a maiden.

Hardy Du Seuil ran well for Will Featherstone when fifth behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor - the pair were beaten just three lengths - and the partnership is renewed tomorrow. Drying ground looks a negative for this one.

Tapley has mixed hurdling and chasing this term. His second in the Swinton looks good; prior to that he had finished fourth behind Tintintin in a conditional and amateur riders' race at Cheltenham. 

In a race that often goes the way of a five or six-year old, I'm going for one that will appreciate the better ground. 

King William Rufus ran well on soft ground in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last month, eventually finishing sixth. Handler Chris Gordon said about his charge in the RP Weekender [26.02-02.03.25]:

"The ground wouldn't have been in his favour in the William Hill Hurdle last time. He seems to prefer better ground, but he still ran an absolute blinder to finish sixth. I think if he'd jumped the second-last better, he'd have probably finished fourth, which would have meant a bit more prize-money. I was pleased with the way he ran and I might look at the Imperial Cup if the ground dries up."

The yard haven't had a winner for 25 days; I'm hoping King William Rufus will give me a run for my money.

King William Rufus is the each-way selection, 16/1 generally at the time of writing but William Hill offer 18/1 and pay five places. 

The 2025 Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster

Fourteen were originally declared for tomorrow's renewal of the Grimthorpe but King Turgeon is now a non-runner, leaving thirteen to face the starter at 3.15; the going on the chase course is currently described as good, good to soft in places.

King Turgeon was one of three runners I thought might prefer more cut underfoot, the other two being Surrey Quest and, possibly, Undersupervision.

Back in 2022 the ground was soft underfoot when Undersupervision, six years old at the time, beat Mister Malarky in this race off a mark of 132; it remains the only chase the gelding has won in 18 attempts and was the first time a horse younger than eight had come home in front since Knight Templar won in 2000.

In the 2023 renewal Moroder, racing from one pound out of the handicap proper, pipped Undersupervision a neck on good ground. 

In last year's renewal only two of the ten to start completed with Does He Know staying on dourly under top weight to deny Some Scope; Undersupervision was pulled up.

It's no surprise to see Some Scope at the head of the market on ground he's likely to appreciate and a mark just two pounds higher than last year. 

On his penultimate start he had the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in safe-keeping approaching the last, although Charlie Maggs' seven pound claim meant he was receiving 21 pounds from runner-up Kinondo Kwetu.

Undersupervision is one of three runners for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

According to the market Weveallbeencaught is the yard's best chance, with son Sam in the plate. 

The horse spent some time with Christian Williams in the autumn but returned to Naunton in January and beat Rock My Way in a five-runner novice handicap at this track five weeks ago. 

He made most that day; watching a replay, I thought his jumping was safe rather than assured on occasions although he appeared to warm to the task in hand as the race progressed. This represents a stiffer test.

I've as much time for stablemate The Kniphand whose third behind Monbeg Genius and Richmond Lake on soft ground at Uttoxeter last time reads well.

This one went into my notebook back at the beginning of October when he won a three mile novice handicap on good, good to firm ground, at Southwell, beating the previous course record by (an astonishing) 12 seconds. 

I've checked that again; the results section from the RP Weekender states:

"An extremely fast time, 12 secs faster than the previous course record."  

There were a number of fast times recorded that day: Nevendon won the opener in just over a second under standard, and both Harry's Hope and Sunshine Diamond also established new course records.

Still... Food for thought, as they say.

Last time out White Rhino ran in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day; he wasn't too slick at the first and then made a mistake at the third, unseating Henry Brooke in the process. 

Unexposed, he could prove better than these but with just three chase starts to his name I'm not tempted. Although he won a three mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in December 2023, much of his racing to date has been over a shorter trip.

It looks as though connections of top weight Twig have been trying to take advantage of a more lenient hurdle mark with three runs over the smaller obstacles so far this term.

This one tends to race up with the pace; his second behind Chianti Classico in last year's Ultima reads well, as does his win in the 2023 Uttoxeter Summer Cup. 

Trainer Ben Pauling has indicated the horse needs to run once to qualify for this season's Grand National and this is that run. His chance is respected. 

Surrey Quest holds an entry in the Aintree Grand National and, should he fail to make the cut, the Scottish National will be the target, a race in which he was beaten a nose by Macdermott last April.

Writing in the RP Weekender [12-16.02.25], handler Toby Lawes said:

"He has a Grand National entry but I don't think he'll get in.

"He probably had to win at Musselburgh to give us a live chance (finished third behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National), but we'll see. We've always got the Scottish National, in which he was beaten only a nose last year. That's always been plan A for this season and I'd think he'd have a serious chance in that. 

"I'll probably consider something like the Grimthorpe for his next run... 

"If he's sound and well, I'd be very happy to get another run into him and something like the Grimthorpe wouldn't be a marathon slog either."   

Hymac finished second behind Henry's Friend in the Mandarin at Newbury (Surrey Quest unseated rider) but the in-running comment 'Didn't always jump with fluency' tells its own tale. Connections will hope the fitting of first-time cheekpieces will help the cause.

Erne River, Fidelio Vallis and Lord Baddesley are runners who wouldn't be guaranteed to see out the trip. 

The last-named moved to from Chris Gordon to Anthony Honeyball's yard at the beginning of November and looks feasibly treated from a handicapping perspective but hasn't won for two years.

Outsider Monte Igueldo hasn't won since he moved down the road from Oliver Greenall to Gary Hanmer's yard in Tattenhall, Cheshire. 

His third at odds of 125/1 in last year's Summer Cup at Uttoxeter behind Hang In There reads well, as does his second behind Kinondo Kwetu over the same course and distance four weeks later.

On a couple of lines through Kinondo Kwetu that admittedly wouldn't stand up to too much close scrutiny - in this season's Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby -  he's entitled to be competitive with Some Scope. 

Although seventh behind Victtorino over three miles at Ascot two weeks ago, he was beaten under eight lengths and the time before, when third at Bangor on soft ground, he raced without the declared tongue-tie. 

More than likely at some stage in tomorrow's proceedings he'll be outpaced but, if first-time cheekpieces help, he can outrun odds of 40/1.

Plenty of imponderables but I like The Kniphand from a stable in form; Finn Lambert claims three and has been on board for four of the gelding's five victories to date.

The Kniphand is the each-way suggestion, 10/1 generally at the time of writing with most layers paying four places.

The 2025 Eider Chase

Eighteen have been declared for tomorrow's Eider Chase (2.10 Newcastle) with the going currently described as good to soft, soft in places. 

Collectors Item carries top weight; I've still to forgive myself for missing him in the Somerset National at Wincanton last time - he won at odds of 14/1 - having given a clear indication of a return to form on his previous start where he finished one and a half lengths behind Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown.

Jonjo O'Neill's charge was raised four pounds after that win at Wincanton but Jack Hogan's three pound claim offsets most of the increase.

Favourite O'Connell goes for a four-timer here. 

Having won the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day by nine and a half lengths (Kelce one length in arrears when falling at the last), connections decided to try their luck down south in a handicap chase at Sandown.

Gavin Sheehan rode one cool race out the back that day, steadily making ground over the last half mile to jump the final fence in fourth and then scoot up the hill to win going away. 

The handicapper has raised the gelding eight pounds for his trouble; without wishing to carp that performance, I noted that five of the eight opponents that day were over nine years of age.

He has shot up 22 pounds since winning at Carlisle on December 1st; Peter Kavangh claims three while Gavin Sheehan rides Passing Well who led three out in the Surrey National at the end of last month but was pipped on the line by Sporting Ace (Major Dundee pulled up).

That looked a hard enough race on heavy ground at Lingfield just three weeks ago; Sporting Ace has gone up five pounds, Passing Well four.

Last year Anglers Crag beat Prince Des Fichaux a neck in this with Major Dundee unseating Tom Bellamy two out when ridden in third. 

Anglers Crag tries again this year off a mark four pounds higher; Brian Ellison's charge was fourth behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh 20 days ago, losing two places after the last. Second spot was claimed by Bodhisattva who goes off the same mark again tomorrow.

Brian Ellison hasn't had a jumps winner for 57 days while John McConnell's yard has struggled this winter.

Prince Des Fichaux races from two pounds out of the handicap this time and hasn't shown a lot since that effort in last year's race (behind Bretney twice - in the Highland National at Perth in April and the Scottish Borders National at Kelso in December). Handler Ewan Whillans has sent out two winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight.

Choosethenews won a point over three miles in 2022 but most of his racing under rules to date has been over trips around the two and a half mile mark. He has been well supported in the market during the day and his run behind Giovinco in February might suggest 126 is a lenient mark.

Having been pulled up behind O'Connell on his penultimate start, last time he finished second behind If Not For Dylan over two miles seven and a half furlongs at this track (Lord Roco a close third, Prince Des Fichaux pulled up). 

Lord Roco has yet to win a race over fences.

Ilikedwayurthinkin likes to race up with the pace and, despite his age, comes into this in good form having won easily at the track over three miles six at the end of November and then finishing second under top weight behind Undeniable Alibi at Ayr last month. 

Owned by J.P. McManus, this one has been supported in the market during the day; Ben Haslam hasn't had a jumps winner for 83 days.

Egbert looks the pick of Alan King's two; writing in the RP Weekender the handler tells readers the bug that hit the yard is easing off now and continues:

"This has been the target for Egbert since he won the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. 

"He's not an easy horse to catch right but he's working well and the further they go the better - he kept grinding away at Haydock, having been off the bridle a long way out, and he'll be suited by this thorough test of stamina. 

"Major Dundee couldn't handle the absolutely bottomless ground at Lingfield in the Surrey National but he didn't give himself a hard race and he's come out of it fine. 

"He was running well when he unseated two out in last year's Eider, holding third place at the time. He would definitely have been placed and he's five pounds lower now."

I've heard Henry Daly, when discussing Bretney, say that the further they go, the better he goes. 

In the past Alistair Jones has called this ten-year-old 'inconsistent' in the RP Weekender and a quick look at his profile might confirm that opinion with blinkers, cheekpieces and a visor tried on various occasions during his career. 

He seems best when able to lead from the front - on his penultimate start he beat Your Own Story 10 lengths in the Scottish National at Kelso. At the time of writing he's 33/1 with William Hill, having been 40s in places earlier in the day which, to my untrained eye, looks big should he turn up on a going day.

Your Own Story's subsequent sixth in the Welsh Grand National behind Val Dancer reads well enough, although Lucinda Russell's charge appeared to lose his pitch mid race before staying on from two out.

Irish raider History Of Fashion has three chase wins to his name and they've all have come at Down Royal and Fairyhouse - both right-handed tracks. 

Two of those wins have come this term for seven pound claimer Harry Sexton, the most recent a Listed race over three mile five and a half furlongs at the beginning of December.

Back in May Gaboriot won a hunter chase at Cheltenham over a distance of four miles and half a furlong while his third behind King Turgeon in the Great Sefton in November certainly catches the eye.

The chestnut was due to run in the Edinburgh National but was declared a non-runner after a poor scope. He comes to this fresher than a few in the field and the yard has sent out a couple of winners in the past week.

Three of Chemical Warfare's six chase wins have come at Newcastle and he has won over an extended three and a quarter mile trip at Sedgefield. 

I was under the impression the Pipe stable used to target this race in the past but perhaps I'm mistaken as Comply Or Die (2008) is their only previous winner. The yard is going through a quiet spell at the moment - just one win from 21 runs in the past fortnight.

Knockanore goes beyond three miles for the first time.

The lowest official handicap ratings of the winner since Merigo won off 125 in 2009 are:

2016: Rocking Blues 126

2017: Mysteree 127

2024: Anglers Crag 126

In a highly competitive affair I've decided to focus on those in the field that have previously shown some form around the four mile mark: Anglers Crag, Gaboriot, Your Own Story, Bodhisattva, Major Dundee, Bretney and Prince Des Fichaux.

Gaboriot is the each-way suggestion, as I write still 12/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair who pay five places.

The 2025 Grand National Trial at Haydock

Everybody agrees - this race isn't a trial for the Grand National in April, so it's time to call it something else.

Ten have been declared to run over the extended three and a half mile trip; the going at the Lancashire track is currently described as good to soft but light rain is forecast throughout the day tomorrow.

Top weight and course specialist Royal Pagaille takes his chance with the result that half of the field race from out of the handicap. 

During the day we have seen Val Dancer and Jubilee Express, first and second in the Welsh Grand National seven weeks ago, supplanted at the head of the market by Yeah Man and Git Maker.

Irish raider Yeah Man won this last year off a mark of 133 (with Famous Bridge unseating at the 17th fence when travelling well enough); Yeah Man goes off 144 tomorrow.

Git Maker races from five pounds out of the handicap off 133. 

Jamie Snowden's charge finished third off that mark in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. On his first start this season he finished last of 12 in a handicap hurdle at Windsor four weeks ago; that looks like a preparatory run for this.

Val Dancer is six pounds 'wrong' at the weights, Jubilee Express eight, although Dylan Johnston's three pound claim reduces the deficit to five.

Royal Pagaille continues to drift in the market as he tries this trip for the first time. 

At the age of 11 it looks a stiff task conceding a minimum of 17 pounds to all opponents but his record at Haydock reads 112111P.  

On his penultimate start in the Betfair Chase in November his jumping wasn't quite as assured as we'd seen in the past and last time he didn't jump well at all before being pulled up. 

With regular pilot Charlie Deutsch riding at Ascot, Sean Bowen has been called upon to do the pushing, the shoving and the steering.     

Famous Bridge is two pounds 'wrong' but likes Haydock - his figures at the track read 11U3. 

Nicky Richards' charge was a tad disappointing when only third behind Egbert and Jacks Parrot in the Tommy Whittle eight weeks ago. Sent off joint favourite with Yeah Man for this last year when rated 139, he unseated Sean Quinlan so remains unproven at the trip; connections try cheekpieces for the first time.   

Where It All Began finds the fences getting in the way on occasions but on his penultimate start he was still in contention in the Welsh National - four lengths fourth - when sprawling on landing four from home.

Three mares take their chance: Apple Away, Galia Des Liteaux and Royal Pagaille's stablemate Fontaine Collonges.

Apple Away has been well backed during the day and is now generally a 6/1 shot. 

She wouldn't be the biggest and I've never been totally convinced by her jumping of a fence - a quick look at her profile might suggest she has shown her best form over fences when racing right-handed.

Galia Des Liteaux and Fontaine Collonges finished behind Val Dancer and Jubilee Express in the Welsh National.

Galia Des Liteaux came home fifth, beaten 17 lengths, while Fontaine Collonges made little impression and was pulled up in the home straight when behind.

Off 142 Dan Skelton's charge went agonisingly close behind My Silver Lining in the 2024 running of the Classic Chase at Warwick, so looks feasibly treated here on 140 with Tristan Durrell claiming three.

Fontaine Collonges likes Haydock too - her figures at the track read 101. 

On her penultimate start she beat Monbeg Genius 12 lengths here and that one won a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter last Saturday.  

It's been a volatile market and there's probably more volatility to come.

I'm drawn to the chance of Galia Des Liteaux who stays the trip and races off her lowest mark since winning the Yorton Stallions  Mares' Novices' Chase at Bangor in November 2022. 

She meets Val Dancer 17 pounds better off than in the Welsh National (if I've done my calculations correctly) and is joint top-rated with Apple Away on Racing Post ratings.

Galia Des Liteaux is the each-way suggestion, currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes who pay three places.     

The 2025 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury

What's this? William Hill sponsoring the Betfair Hurdle? 

It used to be the Tote before that, didn't it? And, before that, Schhh... You Know Who. 

Anyway, the final field of eighteen for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.35) has some notable absentees including Tellherthename, Hansard and Bo Zenith.

The going at Newbury is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with light rain forecast overnight.

Favourite Secret Squirrel won the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle with something to spare on soft ground at Windsor three weeks ago (with Navajo Indy fourth, Beat The Bat seventh, Go Dante eleventh and Givemefive 30 lengths adrift in thirteenth place) and carries a five pounds penalty here.

Nico De Boinville was described as, on occasions, 'agricultural' by Tom Scudamore in a recent Times article appraising the riding styles of the leading contenders for the David Power Jockeys' Cup; Nico was aboard the winner that day at Windsor and he rides Joyeuse for Nicky Henderson and owner J.P. McManus tomorrow.

The Henderson yard has a good record in this race with six previous wins: Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000 and 2004); Landing Light (2001); My Tent Or Yours (2013); and Iberico Lord (2024).

Grey mare Joyeuse goes off a mark of 123; in the past ten years the lowest official handicap rating of the winner was 132 (Violet Dancer in 2015). 

Two mares have come home in front in the past 30 years: Mysilv (1995); and Spirit Leader (2003).

Navajo Indy, fourth at Windsor, won the Gerry Feilden over course and distance at the end of December (Our Champ third) and meets Secret Squirrel five pounds better off for a three length defeat; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

The last horse to carry more than 11-08 to victory was Persian War in 1968 which means I haven't looked too closely at the chances of Lump Sum, Iberico Lord and Favour And Fortune. 

Iberico Lord won this last year off a mark of 134 but things haven't gone to plan over the larger obstacles this season and he finished some 20 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Windsor three weeks ago.

Similarly the last horse older than seven to collect the spoils was Geos some 21 years ago so I haven't spent too much time looking at Aucunrisque, Washington, Go Dante and King William Rufus.

That said, the first-named made all to win the 2023 renewal off 138 and, back in November, won an Ascot handicap on good ground off 129 (Mirabad third and Williethebuilder pulled up). 

He looks feasibly weighted off 133 but will need the rain to stay away.

I certainly wouldn't describe myself as au courant with French Flat form (or British Flat form for that matter) but Mirabad's second in a Listed race at Fointainebleau back in November 2023 over one mile seven furlongs looks respectable - he was headed in the final 50 yards.

And he has done well for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole since moving this side of La Manche. 

Last time at Cheltenham on his second start in a handicap hurdle, the gelding decided he wanted none of the steady early pace set by Magic Seven, pulling his way to the front before the fourth flight and duly winning five and a half lengths. 

The handicapper duly raised him 10 pounds. 

Fiercely Proud brings strong form to the table.

On seasonal debut Ben Pauling's charge had come under pressure when falling two out in an Ascot handicap won by Our Champ. 

He was subsequently sixth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood before pipping Kabral Du Mathan a short head in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas (Our Champ fifth, Favour And Fortune sixth, Go Dante pulled up and Secret Squirrel two lengths third when falling at the final flight).

He has been raised nine pounds for that win to a mark of 137 and probably prefers racing on a right-handed track.

Our Champ's defeat of Break My Soul by a nose at Ascot (Fiercely Proud fell) reads well, particularly as the stable was under a cloud at the time; Freddie Gordon dropped his whip on the run to the line that day but still managed to get the job done.

On Gerry Feilden running Our Champ meets Navajo Indy three pounds better off for a five length defeat which isn't reflected in market prices at the time of writing.

Beat The Bat had Josh The Boss in arrears when second behind Steel Ally over two miles three furlongs at Haydock in November before finishing seven and threequarters lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor. 

Stable form has been a concern this season - odds on chances Anno Power and High Fibre have both been turned over in the past fortnight.

I like Josh The Boss but since 2023 he has been racing over trips around the two and a half mile mark - the step back to two miles may not help the cause.

I've never been convinced by Williethebuilder but Minella Missile, a half brother to Monbeg Genius, went in the notebook after winning a Cheltenham novice hurdle in November 2023. 

At that time handler Evan Williams described him as a staying novice with a turn of foot but he's clearly had problems since; I'm surprised to see him entered up here - he's one for another day maybe.

I had the Harriet Dickin trained Dodger Long pencilled in for this but he never made the five day declarations and I was surprised by the absence of Tellherthename when the final field was announced on Thursday.

Two are on the each-way shortlist: Mirabad and Our Champ.

I've watched a recording of Mirabad's race at Cheltenham again and, to be perfectly honest, I don't quite know what to make it. 

Several of those in behind - Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay - haven't turned up here but the grey Tintintin had previously finished fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood; as the gelding rounded the home turn that day the on-screen speed indicator read 35 mph. 

A fast run two miles will suit his style of racing but this is a step up in class and a current mark of 130 is two pounds below the lowest rated winner of the last ten years.

Plenty of use was made of Our Champ on the front end at Ascot the last day (beaten 27 lengths into fifth behind Fiercely Proud); on Gerry Feilden form he's not too far behind Navajo Indy. 

Our Champ gets the vote.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with the sponsors who pay five places; I've taken 22/1 with Paddy Power who are paying six places. 

The 2025 Scottish Champion Chase

Twelve have been declared for tomorrow's Scottish Champion Chase run at Musselburgh over a trip of two miles four and a half furlongs. 

In a week when several meetings have been abandoned on account of waterlogging, officials at the Scottish track have indicated they have watered to maintain the current going, described as good to soft.

Favourite The Kalooki Kid looked good in a Doncaster novice chase last time but he faces several battle-hardened performers here and is short enough in the market with just two starts over fences to his name. 

The grey Marble Sands won a novice chase over course and distance this time last year and, after two appetisers on the all-weather in the autumn, has shown consistent form over fences this term - third behind Frero Banbou in the Rehearsal at Newcastle and second behind Springwell Bay at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

In the past Saint Segal has been known to jump quite low over his fences; he seems more suited by this trip these days. 

On his penultimate start he appeared to lose his chance at the start, eventually finishing a ten length fifth behind Le Patron at Newbury (Sir Psycho sixth). 

Next time out, again at Newbury, he beat Beau Balko 11 lengths and Walking On Air 34 lengths - the latter-named appeared to have the Great Yorkshire Chase within his grasp when coming to grief at the final fence at Doncaster on Saturday.

Just over 12 months ago Fidelio Vallis beat Corrigeen Rock over course and distance in the Auld Reekie Handicap Chase. 

He hasn't shown the same form on two starts since, with the result Harry Dereham's charge is back on that last winning mark of 140; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time here. 

Stablemates Sir Psycho and Kansas City Star are also in the line-up. 

The former fell on his only chase start for Paul Nicholls but won his first chase start for Dereham - over two miles three furlongs; he has yet to win over further but has been the subject of market support during the day. 

The latter didn't jump well when pulled up behind Terresita at Ascot a fortnight ago.  

This feels like a big weekend for the Dereham yard after Storm Bert washed his gallop away at the end of November; 15 have been declared in total across four cards, including Queens Gamble (Rachael Blackmore up) in the Listed mares' handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday (12.40). 

Minella Drama won the 2023 renewal of the Auld Reekie and proved he's still a force to be reckoned with by making all to beat Hitman, Ahoy Senor, Stage Star and Unexpected Party in the Old Roan at Aintree in the autumn.

Lucinda Russell saddles two, Corrigeen Rock and Traprain Law. 

Corrigeen Rcok won this race last year off 139 and looks feasibly handicapped this time off 142, with Alan Doyle claiming five. 

The gelding doesn't come into the race in the same form though - he didn't jump well behind Boomslang in this year's renewal of the Auld Reekie 31 days ago.

Traprain Law's famous green and yellow silks belong to owner / breeder Raymond Anderson Green. 

On his first try at two and a half miles Traprain Law finished behind Marble Sands at Carlisle at the beginning of November; on revised terms the gelding is entitled to finish upsides Marble Sands provided, of course, he sees out the trip.

The Big Chap comes over from Ireland and on his first run in this country goes off a mark one pound higher than his Irish mark. To date Paul Flynn's charge has not won beyond two miles three.

On his last run for Noel Meade Lieutenant Command finished down the field in the 2023 Galway Plate off 141. 

After a break of of 479 days the 11-year-old was pulled up behind Trelawne on his first run for Tim Reed and then finished second behind Grandads Cottage at odds of 125/1 at Carlisle in December.

All of which leads on to Arizona Cardinal.

Last April Stuart Edmunds' charge won the Topham at Aintree (2m 5f) on soft ground off 137. 

On his first run this term he was pulled up behind Neon Moon in the Native River at Chepstow and promptly underwent wind surgery.

On his next start in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham he finished eighth, beaten just over 16 lengths, outpaced from two out over a trip just short of three miles six furlongs.

Now, he was due to run in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last weekend but was withdrawn on account of the quick ground. 

There was some talk of a Grand National plan but, during the week, after his mare Marsh Wren had been scratched from the National entries, the trainer confirmed that Arizona Cardinal would once again be aimed at the Topham:

"He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham last time. That was a test as to whether he might be worth considering for the Grand National but his stamina gave way and it told us all roads lead back to the Topham."

Arizona Cardinal held two entries for the weekend - this race (for which Ciaran Gethings was jocked up midweek) and the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase over three miles at Sandown. 

I thought connections would opt for Sandown - the horse has won over three miles previously and appreciates soft ground but, not for the first time, I was mistaken.

While drying ground over this shorter trip at Musselburgh wouldn't be ideal, if the plan has been a repeat bid for the Topham since mid December (i.e. after the cross country race), then I'm reasoning he'll need to be reasonably competitive tomorrow. 

The worry would be that, in a race with plenty of early pace, he might struggle to hold a position and become detached.

Layers are offering 20/1 (four places) and I've succumbed to temptation.

Arizona Cardinal is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally at the time of writing, with several layers paying four places.