Yesterday marked the 19th anniversary of the blog's very first post.
If he were still alive today, my Latin teacher would have probably said: 'Jove! Tempus fugit!', then crossed the Via Acacia and rushed into our local Ladbrokes to stick 20 denarii on favourite I Am Maximus for this year's National.
Last year I Am Maximus beat Delta Work seven and a half lengths off a mark of 159 (Minella Indo third, Meetingofthewaters seventh, Coko Beach eleventh and Vanilier fourteenth); he races off 167 tomorrow, bidding to become the first horse to win back-to-back Nationals since Tiger Roll in 2018/19, and the first to carry top weight to victory since Red Rum in 1974.
This is the second year with a reduced field size of 34 runners; the going is currently described as good to soft and they're due off at 4.00pm.
Since 2015 a horse aged either eight or nine has won the National, with the one exception being Noble Yeats who won the 2022 renewal when seven.
The market is dominated by a number of Irish trained runners; this year Willie Mullins has six entries, Gordon Elliott five, Gavin Cromwell three.
Of the Mullins runners, Minella Cocooner will be suited by drying conditions. He won the bet365 Chase on good ground at Sandown last April off 152 (Nick Rockett third, Theeunderthrufive thirteenth).
Meetingofthewaters didn't quite see out the trip last year in seventh on ground described as good to soft, soft in places. He hasn't appeared in such good form this term but has higher hopes of lasting home on better ground.
Nick Rockett held Intense Raffles threequarters of a length in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse six weeks ago but meets last year's Irish Grand National winner 15 pounds worse off.
Intense Raffles would probably prefer more cut underfoot.
Three Card Brag is probably Gordon Elliott's best chance; the booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye but stable form is a concern with just two wins from 42 runs in the past fortnight.
Gavin Cromwell has told the TV cameras he can't split his three.
Stumptown looked to have a hard enough race winning the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham three and a half weeks ago with stablemate Vanilier doing well in the circumstances to finish third, having almost taken the wrong route early on.
Perceval Legallois had Nick Rockett, Three Card Brag, Horantzau D'Airy and Meetingofthewaters in arrears in a Listed Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and has the assistance of Mark Walsh in the saddle.
Owner J.P.McManus relies on five as he bids to win the race for a fourth time: the well-backed I Am Maximus (W.P.Mullins); Iroko (O.Greenall & J.Guerriero); Perceval Legallois (G.Cromwell); Meetingofthewaters (W.P.Mullins); and Chantry House (N.Henderson).
Hewick famously cost £800 and is famously small but Shark Hanlon's charge has the heart of a lion and famously mugged Bravemansgame to win the 2023 King George at Kempton; drying ground helps his cause.
At the time of writing Iroko is the only British trained runner near the top of the market.
This race has been his target since he finished second behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin at this meeting last year; this season connections have campaigned their charge in such a way as to protect his handicap mark of 152.
Paul Nicholls saddles five with Kandoo Kid, the Coral Gold Cup winner in November, probably his best chance.
Of his other runners Bravemansgame doesn't look the force of old but Threeunderthrufive was beaten just over six lengths on good ground in the 2023 Scottish Grand National at Ayr and showed his current wellbeing when beaten a nose by Victtorino at Ascot seven weeks ago. Harry Cobden rides Kandoo Kid, with Harry Skelton aboard Threeunderthrufive.
The BBC's Grand National Pinstickers' Guide may prove of more use than what follows...
On Monday evening I bet Beauport each-way at odds of 33/1 with Sky (six places).
Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge won the 2024 Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and on seasonal debut won the Berkshire National Handicap Chase at Ascot on good ground.
He's a proven stayer and can handle drying ground.
On Wednesday Paul Kealy made a similar case in the RP Weekender, stating if the horse were trained in Ireland, he would likely be priced up around the 8/1 - 10/1 mark; there's perhaps some journalistic hyperbole in that statement.
The two main concerns are he's on a mark 12 pounds higher after Ascot and, on occasions at Uttoxeter, he jumped right, a trait he hadn't shown previously on a left-handed track.
Still, he has been in very good form this term.
Of course, dangers abound everywhere - it's the Grand National! To my mind Iroko and Minella Cocooner pose big threats but, forget that, this evening Betfred stand out from the crowd by paying seven places.
Beauport is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 22/1 with Betfred who are paying the seven places.
