Showing posts with label sky bet chase. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sky bet chase. Show all posts

Friday, January 24, 2025

The 2025 Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase

Seventeen have been declared for tomorrow's renewal of the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3.15 Doncaster) - previously known (for a while, anyway) as the Sky Bet Handicap Chase; the going on the chase track at Donny is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

There have been some big-priced winners of this race in recent years: 

Takingrisks, 40/1 in 2021

Windsor Avenue, 40/1 in 2022

Cooper's Cross, 16/1 in 2023 

Annual Invictus, 16/1 in 2024

Last year Forward Plan just failed to collar front-running Annual Invictus, with Charlie Uberalles third, Erne River fifth and Famous Bridge eventually pulled up following a significant error at the third.

Forward Plan, Charlie Uberalles and Erne River have all shown a liking for this track, as have Docpickedme and Raffle Ticket. 

Young Buster ran well behind Egbert in the three mile novice chase at this meet last year, losing second spot to Snipe after Paddy Brennan dropped his hands on Fergal O'Brien's charge in the shadow of the post. 

It's no surprise to see The Changing Man and Forward Plan at the head of the market. 

The Changing Man has still to win a race over fences in eight starts.

Joe Tizzard's charge ran with credit behind Frero Banbou in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle at the end of November; he was raised five pounds for that effort and another two after finishing second to Victtoriono at Ascot just before Christmas. Should he win here, I don't think anyone would begrudge connections their moment in the sunshine.

Forward Plan raced off 129 when beaten a nose last year with Ben Godfrey claiming three. He goes off 138 tomorrow with Chad Bament claiming ten so, in effect, is on a mark just two pounds higher.

Truth is, I've always held a slight reservation about this horse after this quote from handler Anthony Honeyball [RP Weekender 23-27.11.22]:

"His trouble is that he tends to jump nine out of ten fences like an old pro and then really balls one up."

Still, the horse won the Coral Trophy at Kempton last February (Bowtogreatness third) despite a number of jumping errors... 

Charlie Uberalles beat Docpickedme and Forward Plan over course and distance in December when racing from three pounds out of the handicap; he's effectively four pounds higher tomorrow.

Snipe's second behind Val Dancer at Carlisle last time looks decent form as the winner subsequently added victory in the Welsh Grand National to his list of achievements.

Emma Lavelle has her string in excellent form - 5 wins from 18 runs in the past fortnight (28% strike rate) - and Tightenourbelts comes into this on the back of wins at Exeter (where he beat Beachcomber) and Ludlow. He jumped well at Ludlow but could be vulnerable off a mark of 140.

Frero Banbou proved he stayed the trip by winning the Rehearsal but that looked a hard enough race; he was prominent in a Kempton handicap over Christmas before finishing 10 lengths adrift of Beachcomber.

Famous Bridge had a slog in the Haydock mud last time when just clinging on to third in the Tommy Whittle while Idalko Bihoue's profile appears inconsistent and grey mare Sine Nomine has been contesting hunter chases for the most part.

Bowtogreatness, owned by Harry Redknapp and trainer's wife Sophie Pauling, was impressive when making all to beat Destroytheevidence in a novice chase at Newbury in November but didn't appear to appreciate being pestered up front in the Rehearsal where he was pulled up before two out. Just two pounds higher than his last winning mark, he's unlikely to get his own way up front - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Arizona Cardinal is better with more cut underfoot - the Topham at Aintree is a likely target.

Walking On Air has been out of form so far this term and holds an alternative entry in the 12.40 at Cheltenham. 

Docpickedme hinted at a return to form in a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter before running a stormer behind Charlie Uberalles over course and distance six weeks ago; on revised terms, there's little between the pair.

Young Buster doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and would be entitled to improve on his seasonal debut behind Elvis Mail at Kelso but he has been weak in the market today. 

Ten-year-old Erne River has shown his best form at Doncaster. 

On his penultimate start, sporting first-time blinkers, he raced wide in fourth before appearing a tad unfortunate to lose his footing at the twelfth, giving five pound claimer Tom Broughton no chance. 

The pair were reunited in a hurdle race at the track over Christmas where they finished fourth behind Super Survivor. Fifth in this race last year off 137, beaten just under seven lengths, Erne River goes off 131 tomorrow - and with Tom Broughton's five pound claim he's effectively 11 pounds better off.

Raffle Ticket tries this trip for the first time while most of Sure Touch's form is over a shorter distance.

A very competitive renewal - it's possible to make a case for a number in the field. 

As the tapes go up, there will be the customary dash to secure a prominent early position. 

Of those that have run well at the track previously, Erne River looks well treated but the unseating in first-time blinkers is unsettling. 

Nick Kent's charge had been taken wide on the first circuit that day but the mistake at the twelfth came when he was racing in amongst horses. Next time out in the hurdle race he was settled on the inside rail but in a small field of just six.

Snipe looks one of the more solid options but is priced accordingly so I'll take the chance and hope the blinkers prove more of a help than a hindrance - Erne River is the each-way suggestion, 16/1 with several layers at the time of writing, all of whom pay five places.  

Friday, January 26, 2024

The 2024 Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase

Ping!

Another email from The Times' business editor hits the inbox. 

This one informs me that two bookmakers are among the top five taxpayers in the UK - Denise, John and Peter Coates of bet365 (£375.9m) and Fred and Peter Done of Betfred (£204.6m).

This season my tips have played their part in boosting the layers' profits - and their tax bills too - and there's no substantive reason to suggest anything is likely to change for the better tomorrow with a trip to Doncaster for the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase which is due off at 3.15.

It seems churlish to complain, especially after the recent winds and rain, but the last time I had a bet in a three mile chase at Doncaster - the bet365 Handicap Chase on December 16th 2023 - only ten of the 18 fences were jumped on account of the low sun. 

With sunny intervals and a moderate breeze forecast for Donny tomorrow there must be a fair chance we'll see something similar once again.

Forward Plan beat Mister Coffey (second), Twoshotsoftequila (third), Whistleinthedark (fourth) and Sail Away (sixth) six weeks ago; after the race winning jockey Ben Godfrey said:

"He's only a little horse [Forward Plan] but he's been holding his own in nice races and shaped well in the Badger Beer. The fences were out and I knew he has a nice turn of foot."   

Naturally, with eight fences omitted, that form needs to be treated with a certain amount of caution.

18 are set to face the starter tomorrow with the going described as good, good to soft in places. 

Famous Bridge heads the market, having won the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time out on heavy ground. Nicky Richards' charge won on good ground over a trip of just under two miles six furlongs at Wetherby last March so clearly is no slouch.

Christian Williams hasn't had a winner for 66 days but his Cap Du Nord bounced back to form in this race last year - when it was known as the Sky Bet Handicap Chase - beaten a length by Cooper's Cross off a mark of 125 and then going on to win the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot. 

He races from one pound out of the handicap tomorrow on 122; his prominence in the betting suggests connections expect a big run although this looks more competitive than last year.

Cooper's Cross went on to finish second to Kitty's Light, a stablemate of Cap Du Nord, in the Scottish Grand National last April but he has been out of sorts this term; connections try to rekindle the flame by fitting first-time blinkers.

Irish raider Sweet Will won a three mile handicap hurdle on good ground here last March off 126 and races off 122 while Erne River clearly likes Doncaster but drying ground is unlikely to play to Surrey Quest's strengths.

Kandoo Kid tries this trip for the first time while Strictlyadancer, another stablemate of Cap Du Nord, hinted at a return to form when second behind Tweed Skirt at Kempton.

Somehow I'm drawn back to the dubious form of that race won by Forward Plan here six weeks ago. 

It's hard to recommend Mister Coffey (no wins in 11 chase starts) but of those behind I think Twoshotsoftequila and Sail Away were both at a disadvantage as a result of the omitted fences.

Twoshotsoftequila was well backed that day and made plenty of ground up the home straight while Sail Away did well to finish less than nine lengths behind the winner in sixth.

With the Skelton yard hitting top form last weekend and Sail Away dropped two pounds for that latest effort, the grey gets the nod. He beat Forward Plan 11 lengths on similar terms at Ayr last April.

Sail Away is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 14/1 with bet365 who pay six places.

Hoping they jump all the fences this time...

Friday, January 27, 2023

The 2023 Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster

Cheltenham passed an inspection at midday today but undergoes a further check at 7.30 tomorrow morning. 

With frost covers in place and an overnight temperature forecast of -2C, hopes are high the Trials Day card will go ahead; the mooted contingency plan to race on Sunday is no longer considered necessary.

There are no such weather worries at Doncaster where the going is described as good.

Twelve have been declared for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase which is due off at 3.15. The last two winners, Takingrisks and Windsor Avenue, were both returned at odds of 40/1 - and were both ridden by Sean Quinlan.

Ga Law heads the market and the weights for this year's renewal after beating French Dynamite and Midnight River in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham 11 weeks ago. The runner-up that day finished second behind Fakir D'Oudairies at Thurles on Sunday while the third won Cheltenham's New Year's Day Handicap Chase from Stolen Silver.

Jamie Snowden's charge met plenty of trouble in running at Cheltenham yet powered up the hill to suggest this first attempt at three miles should be within his compass; since 2000 only two winners have carried more than 11-10 to victory: Calgary Bay (11-11) in 2012 and Ok Coral (11-12) in 2020.

Tea For Free has won all four chase starts to date and is likely to race prominently with Lilly Pinchin up but this represents a notable step up in class for Charlie Longsdon's charge; the last five winners have all been aged nine or older.

Last February Cap Du Nord beat stablemate Kitty's Light in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton off a mark of 127. 

The handicapper is doing his bit to help the cause as Cap Du Nord goes off 125 tomorrow but Christian Williams' charge has been out of form this term - he finished last of 11 behind Rapper four weeks ago (Java Point second) and before that fifth behind Zanza at Newbury (Demachine second, Java Point third). 

Mister Coffey has run well but has yet to win over the larger obstacles and and his general profile suggests he may prefer more cut underfoot.

Perhaps Cloth Cap isn't the force of old but he ran well for a long way at the head of affairs in the Becher Chase last time out; his chance is not dismissed. 

Undersupervision was pulled up behind Grumpy Charley at Newbury last month (Shanty Alley second) but finished fourth behind Le Milos at Sandown last February and then won the Grimthorpe over three and a quarter miles at this track in March, going by Mister Malarky after jumping the last. The ground rode soft that day and the suspicion is he just might be better suited by a stiffer test of stamina.

I was a tad disappointed with Cooper's Cross at Musselburgh on New Year's Day - in receipt of 17 pounds he could never threaten Minella Drama. He's a point winner over this trip and connections fit cheekpieces for the first time. 

Both Shanty Alley and Elvis Mail have shown their best form with more cut underfoot.

Last year Windsor Avenue won this off 144 (Cap Du Nord third, Demachine tenth). 

Over the years Brian Ellison's charge hasn't always been the most consistent but on his penultimate start he was beaten six and a quarter lengths into fourth behind L'Homme Presse, Into Overdrive and Happygolucky in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. 

That form reads very well and, if in the same mood tomorrow, he would have every chance off 142; I'd imagine Sean Quinlan will try to race prominently as he did last year.

Demachine was sent off 5/1 for last year's renewal yet trailed in some 87 lengths behind the winner. He was third coming to four out before weakening, with connections subsequently reporting their charge had made a respiratory noise. 

After undergoing wind surgery he won the Sir Stanley and Lady Clarke Challenge Trophy at Uttoxeter, run over two and a half miles in May. 

On his next start in November Kerry Lee's charge had no answer to Newbury specialist Zanza - beaten 12 lengths into second with Java Point one and a quarter lengths further adrift in third. 

On New Year's Day at Cheltenham Java Point finished second behind Rapper over a trip of three miles two and a half furlongs while Demachine was perhaps a little disappointing when seventh behind Midnight River over two miles four and a half furlongs.

Demachine has been dropped two pounds for that effort and, on a strict interpretation of the run behind Zanza at Newbury, is weighted to confirm placings with Java Point; in addition Caoilin Quinn, who excelled on Botox Has at Haydock in November, can claim five.

I wasn't convinced Demachine stayed three miles until his second behind Remastered in the 2021 Reynoldstown at Ascot. A fine effort, yet I still harbour a suspicion his optimum distance is probably two and threequarter miles.

Several in this field prefer to race prominently; there is likely to be plenty of pace up front. 

With the benefit of wind surgery, Caoilin Quinn's five pound claim and decent ground to boot, Demachine is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally with most layers paying one fifth the odds four places.

Friday, January 28, 2022

Doncaster's Sky Bet Chase 2022

Connections of Aye Right (rated 159) and Simply The Betts (rated 157) have chosen to contest tomorrow's Cotswold Chase (2.30 Cheltenham) rather than take up alternative options, namely the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.20 Doncaster) and the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (1.55 Cheltenham) respectively. 

The Trials Day card has a number of small fields - just five declared for both the Cotswold Chase and the Cleeve Hurdle (3.05) and six for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (3.40); officials have put this down in part to the prevailing going, now described as good.

I've decided to head north. 

The going at Doncaster is described as good, good to soft in places; 17 are set to face the starter for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase due off at 3.20.

A number in the field have questions to answer over this trip.

Favourite Fusil Raffles won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on his first try at three miles but that day Shan Blue was 20 lengths to the good when taking a crashing fall three out.

Demachine appeared to be outstayed by Remastered in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last February and Cap Du Nord likewise when third behind Takingrisks in this race last year. 

Midnight Shadow and Nuts Well try the trip for the first time while both Janika and Grand Sancy look suspect stayers.

Kapcourse is another to try three miles for the first time. 

I'm guessing this one has been difficult to train but the gelding didn't appear to be stopping when taking the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury over two miles six and a half furlongs (Grand Sancy fourth). The handicapper has raised Paul Nicholls' charge eight pounds for that effort but his chance is respected. 

Debece joined the Skelton yard last spring and on his first run for new connections was passed by Fortescue after the last at Sandown. Now aged 11, he underwent wind surgery in September - the market would appear to indicate a bold run is anticipated. 

Canelo's defeat of Snow Leopardess (Windsor Avenue third) in the 2020 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby reads well. 

Trainer Alan King won the 2016 and 2017 renewals of this race with Ziga Boy. Canelo came home fourth behind Takingrisks last year but the gelding has been out of form this term and the yard hasn't recorded a win over the sticks in 47 starts over the past month.

Windsor Avenue ran with credit to finish second behind Snow Leopardess at Bangor on seasonal debut but next time was never travelling in the Rowland Meyrick and was pulled up; connections try first-time blinkers. 

Cloudy Glen isn't the most consistent of individuals - another pulled up behind Good Boy Bobby in last month's Rowland Meyrick - but Charlie Deutsch prefers to ride the Ladbrokes Trophy winner here rather than Farinet at Cheltenham.

Demachine's stablemate Storm Control bounced back to form at Newbury - the worry would be that race was just 10 days ago. 

Rocco looked a horse to keep an eye when racing up with the pace and then going on to win the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at odds of 40/1 (Hurricane Harvey third, Cap Du Nord fourth and Some Chaos pulled up). However he didn't jump well next time behind Commodore at Cheltenham.

The form of Snow Leopardess acts as a useful benchmark for a few of these and I'm going to make a case for Hill Sixteen.

Hill Sixteen wasn't the most consistent last term and moved up to Sandy Thomson's yard in Berwickshire in the autumn. 

After finishing sixth behind Hold That Taught on seasonal debut at Carlisle he ran a stormer in the Becher Chase from four pounds out of the handicap, beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess. 

I expected a reasonable showing in the Welsh Grand National next time but he was nowhere to be seen and was eventually pulled up. This year's Welsh National was a messy affair run on desperate ground - the start was an absolute shambles - and, with only five of the 20 completing, I'm prepared to forgive that effort.

Hill Sixteen has previously been trained by Sue Smith and Nigel Twiston-Davies. Sandy Thomson's yard has a respectable record with this type of animal; if the gelding can rediscover that Becher form, 20/1 looks value. 

Hill Sixteen is the each-way suggestion, generally a 20/1 chance, with sponsors Sky Bet paying six places.