Thursday, December 24, 2015

Each-way value in 2015 King George?

In my opinion the best each-way value in this year's King George VI Chase at Kempton is previous winner Silviniaco Conti - 9/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill.

Happy Christmas to all readers!

Friday, December 18, 2015

Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle 2015

After a few Christmas beverages, I confess I haven't studied the form as closely as I should have...

Reve De Sivola bids to win Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle for the fourth consecutive time. Beaten a neck by Saphir Du Rheu in the Cleeve Hurdle last January, he meets that opponent four pounds better off here. Saphir Du Rheu is reverting to hurdles after finishing fifth in the Hennessy last month.

Connections thought Thistlecrack would need the run at Newbury three weeks ago but he still won well beating Deputy Dan six lengths. The second tries again four pounds worse at the weights having never won beyond two miles five.

Thistlecrack is open to improvement and probably the percentage call but Reve De Sivola has scored twice for the blog in this particular race; Reve De Sivola (9/2) gets the nod - further rain would help the cause.

In the Silver Cup at 3.00 I shall keep an eye on Katenko after 14 months on the sidelines. Venetia Williams' charge was second in this race in 2012 and won off this mark at Cheltenham in January 2013. Stable jockey Aidan Coleman takes the ride prefering Katenko to the apparently out-of-form Houblon Des Obeaux who came home ninth in the Hennessy last time.

Friday, December 11, 2015

A chance at Cheltenham's International meeting 2015

I'm suffering from a certain sense of deja vu with six in tomorrow's Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Cheltenham 1.50) having competed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup four weeks ago.

Blog selection Buywise was a fast-finishing second to Annacotty that day but I'm not tempted to revisit the form. Tomorrow's race is run over the new (rather than old) course - five of the first six were separated by less than seven lengths last time.

Instead the Albert Bartlett at 2.25 has caught my attention.

Hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry is potentially vulnerable having been pulled up on his only previous effort beyond two miles five; I note no horse older than six has won this in the past ten years.

The trip could yet cause a problem for one or two others in the field. Ennistown, rated 99 and a winner over ten furlongs on the Flat, will see his stamina tested while Justanothermuddle races beyond two miles three for the first time.

Two with form at this distance and beyond are Net Work Rouge and Ballycross; the former beat the latter some seven lengths over three miles two furlongs at Warwick the last day. Kim Bailey's charge is weighted to confirm placings here but Ballycross is less exposed - the difference layers offer in their current pricing doesn't reflect that form with Net Work Rouge available at 9/2 while Ballycross appears unconsidered at 25/1 with Paddy Power.

Connections have taken their time with Final Nudge who lost his confidence after a fall in a point-to- point back in 2012. That patience seems to be paying dividends now - Final Nudge boasts two wins in November including one over two miles five at Wincanton on heavy ground.

Colin Tizzard's West Approach completes the line-up; a half brother to Thistlecrack, he's not dismissed lightly and has been nibbled at in the market.

On ratings Net Work Rouge has two pounds to find with the Harry Fry horse; at 9/2 Net Work Rouge gets the nod - 25/1 Ballycross looks too big.           

Friday, December 04, 2015

Long distance information

Briefly, some each-way selections for some of tomorrow's long distance races...

Saint Are rates the each-way wager in the Becher Chase (1.40 Aintree). Tom George's charge was third in this last year before going on to finish second in the Grand National behind Many Clouds. Sixth in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham three weeks ago, he should strip fitter here and is a 9/1 chance with most layers at the time of writing.

Carole's Destrier looks to have an obvious chance in the London National (Sandown 3.35). His fifth behind Drop Out Joe in the Badger Ales Trophy last time caught my eye and, unfortunately, everyone else's too! He's currently priced up 7/1 favourite; further rain wouldn't help the cause.

Over at Chepstow I'm tempted to take the chance on Victors Serenade in the Welsh National Trial (2.30). His form figures make for grim reading but in a recent Weekender stable tour interview handler Anthony Honeyball said:

"He ran four shockers last season after winning a decent handicap chase at Chepstow and that showed us that he needs to be fresh these days following his bad injury."

Given those awful form figures, the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances quoting prices between 11/2 and 8/1; I was looking for 10/1 or bigger.

On the same card in the following race (Chepstow 3.05) Venetia Williams' Elenika is certainly worth a second look. After a break of more than 18 months off the track, the grey ran a fine race from the front before tiring and coming to grief at the last at Wetherby three weeks ago. This five runner event will be run on a course that suits the gelding's style of racing - 4/1 is on offer.