From a £15 million jackpot to Ffos Las

The total for this week's Scoop6 pool is predcited to pass the £15 million mark...

With the benefit of hindsight, last week's pot (4,696,960 different winning combinations) was eminently more winnable than this week's puzzle (9,424,800 combinations).

Rain is predicted for Haydock - the odd non-runner here and there may reduce that rather large number by the odd million or so but we're still talking big numbers.

All this week's races will be run over a distance of eight furlongs or less; for those interested, the races are:

2.05 Haydock 
2.50 Catterick
2.55 Goodwood
3.10 Haydock
3.25 Catterick
3.45 Haydock

There's no £15 million jackpot up for grabs at Ffos Las but the rain has certainly arrived at the Welsh track where the going is described as soft; the handicap chase at 7.40 looks more open than some of the other fare on offer.

Top weight Smadynium, trying this trip for the first time, isn't guaranteed to stay while at the other end of the handicap Tough Talkin Man has been allocated the bare minimum and amateur Mr S P Bowen claims a further seven pounds - the Bowen yard has sent out four winners in the past week. Whispering Jack won this last year (Sir Mattie beaten 16 lengths) but hasn't been in good form of late. By contrast Sir Mattie ran well for a long way here the last day on his first appearance for the best part of a year. Five Star Wilsham has his second run for the Twiston-Davies yard and boasts some interesting pieces of form; that said he has failed to complete in his last three chase starts.

Both Sir Mattie and Five Star Wilsham are priced up at around 5/1 in the tissue; of that pairing, the latter looks to offer slightly better value and so makes more appeal - it's the jumping that's the worry.       

No Scoop6 for me - it's Bangor-on-Dee...

The Scoop6 hasn't been won since March and the result is there's an estimated £10 million in the pot.

With no more than 15 runners in any of tomorrow's six races, the chances are there will be at least one winning ticket.

I've no doubt the syndicates have already started work on their permutations...

According to my back-of-a-fag packet maths, there are only 4,656,960 potential winning combinations. The wager certainly delivers more excitement than a lottery ticket and, on this occasion, represents better value too.

For those interested in taking part, all you have to do is pick the winners of the following races:

1.45 Newmarket
2.40 Newbury (understatedly named the Betfred Astronomical 10 Million Scoop6 Today Handicap)
2.55 Newmarket
3.25 Thirsk
3.30 Newmarket
4.00 Thirsk

If you're tempted, good luck!

I've set my sights considerably lower by looking briefly at Bangor-on-Dee's jumps card.

Alan King's Grumeti, eighth behind Jezki in the Champion Hurdle two months ago, makes his chase debut in the opener. He'll be long odds-on but didn't hurdle that well at Cheltenham or at Aintree over a half mile further the last day. Back in September I fancied Solaras Exhibition at a price for a listed event at Market Rasen but he disappointed on that occasion. Tim Vaughan's charge will appreciate quicker ground - he may not have the class of Grumeti but I'll watch his jumping with a view to the summer months ahead.

Warren Greatrex is in fine form with 5 wins from 11 runs this month, all ridden by last season's leading conditional Gavin Sheehan.

Later tonight Aidan Coleman teams up with Warrantor for the handler in Aintree's concluding bumper while Sheehan is booked for Wojciech in Bangor's bumper tomorrow. That one faces stiff opposition from the likes of Quiet Candid (Nicky Henderson), Whatdoesthefoxsay (Donald McCain) and Belle De Londres (Alan King).

Whatdoesthefoxsay would appeal as a value play against Henderson's Quiet Candid if the tissue price of 3/1 is available on the day.

McCoy also rides Chalk It Down (for Greatrex) in the 3.40 but this looks an open event. I'm tempted to take an each-way chance with McCain's Ballybriggan provided the price is in double figures.

At the age of ten this one is no spring chicken and he doesn't appear to have had much fun over the larger obstacles recently. That said, he doesn't have too many miles on the clock and comes here freshened up - his record over hurdles reads 4 wins from 11 runs while conditional Nick Slatter takes a handy-looking seven pounds off his back.

Northumberland Plate

Twenty go to post tomorrow for the Northumberland Plate run over a trip of two miles at Newcastle. This evening bookmakers go 8/1 the field for this competitive handicap which is also known as the 'Pitmen's Derby'. Over the last ten years the winner has come from stalls numbered 1-9 on eight occasions; Judgethemoment is strongly fancied but has two negative pointers - he has been drawn wide and happens to have won the Ascot Stakes less than a fortnight ago. Big weight-carrying performances are something of a rarity; that doesn't augur well for Friston Forest allocated nine stones ten pounds, but the next horse in the handicap, The Betchworth Kid, has just nine stones two to carry. I always look for something that is set to carry under nine stones in this. Speed Ticket and Keenes Day have the right profile and are bound to have their supporters but for me Wells Lyrical looks as though this has been his target and is worth a small each-way interest at around 10/1; note that recent stable form isn't convincing.

Over in Ireland Look Here is a horse I like, is top-rated for the ten furlong Pretty Polly Stakes, and ran a blinder last time out to be pipped in a three-way photo in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. I'm not certain whether the step back in trip will suit and there's a possibility she may 'bounce' on her second run after a long layoff, so I'll watch from the sidelines.

Saturday's Scoop 6 races (27 June 2009) are:
2.10 Newcastle
2.20 Newmarket
2.35 Newcastle
3.10 Newcastle
3.25 Newmarket
3.45 Newcastle

Weekend washout

The Saturday cards at both Cheltenham and Lingfield were abandoned due to heavy overnight rain. Racing went ahead at Doncaster where the finale had been selected as the 'bonus' race for the two Scoop6 punters hoping to share over £1.6 million. Their chances looked to have increased significantly with the withdrawal of three runners on account of the going, leaving a field of just nine from which to make their two picks. Ray Stubbs and Lawrence Ireland chose Duke of Touraine (6/1) and Riguez Dancer (4/1). Up the home straight both horses were in a group of three that pulled away from the rest; Duke of Touraine looked to go half a length up on Charlie Crab (12/1) after the last but on the long run to the line the outsider fought back tenaciously next to the running rail to win by half a length. Both punters took it all very well really considering Channel Four insisted on repeatedly replaying the finish. The Tote estimate the bonus fund for Saturday December 27th will top £2 million; to be in with a chance of winning it, you just have to select six winners on Saturday...

Efforts were being made today to re-schedule the Boylesports International Hurdle to Ascot this weekend - at the moment it doesn't look as though those efforts have been successful. The unbeaten Diamond Harry, an entry in the cancelled Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, now has the Challow Hurdle at Newbury as his target.

Today's Racing Post leads with an article that compares the BBC's commitment to racing a decade ago with its plans for the coming decade. Ten years ago 79 days of racing were scheduled to be covered; from 2010 the BBC intend to broadcast just 14 days. Of course, the other terrestrial broadcaster, Channel Four, is known to have serious financial problems and may be taken over by Channel Five.

BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2008 is Olympic cyclist Chris Hoy. I certainly enjoyed last night's programme; nonetheless it still remains a source of wonder to me how the racing year can be summarised in thirty seconds flat.

Comment on a Christmas card, recently received: 'Went to Chepstow last month; seen better horses on Blackpool beach.'

Finally, is anybody else having difficulty finding what they want on the new Racing Post website...?

Weekend reflections

Connections will take their time before making a decision on Inglis Drever's career after the current three mile hurdle champion sustained a hock injury and was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Newbury. Bookmakers have removed him from their lists for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham next March; Ladbrokes currently bet 3/1 Kasbah Bliss, 6/1 Punchestowns, Duc De Regniere, 8/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Elusive Dream, 16/1 Pettifour, Mobaasher.

There was over £1.5 million in the Scoop6 bonus pool on Saturday, with eight tickets covering over half the fifteen strong field that went to post for the Hennessy. Given that winning trainer David Pipe had told those who would listen not to back his Madison Du Berlais as the yard was going through a quiet spell, it wasn't a surprise to find the pot unclaimed. The sum will be carried over, probably to Cheltenham on Saturday 13th December.

It's likely to be a long, pressurised week for Sam Thomas, due to ride Master Minded in Saturday's Tingle Creek at Sandown. On each of the past two Saturdays he has parted company with his charge at the final flight of the day's feature race. The unseating from Big Buck's in the Hennessy didn't look great - I'm sure he's watched the replay a few times and will feel he could have stayed in the plate.

Browsing in the Leamington branch of Waterstone's over the weekend I came across Ross Newton's book The Tail End System; I had barely managed a quick glance before Mrs Tips started giving me earache about the Christmas shopping. In a nutshell, Newton gives details of a system that looks to make profits from backing outsiders in British National Hunt races from October to May. An outsider is considered anything that starts at 10/1 or bigger and Newton goes on to identify the tracks where this type of wager is most successful. The top tracks include Musselburgh, Ludlow, Towcester, Carlisle, Catterick and Perth; the striking thing for me was that of those six, five race right-handed.

Those who race at Ludlow on a regular basis are bound to be familiar with The Feathers Hotel, parts of which date back to 1619. In an accident on Friday evening, a bus mounted the pavement and crashed into the facade. The driver appears to have collapsed at the wheel and died at the scene.

Finally, make a note of the new Racing Post website - http://www.racingpost.com/

Talking points

Kauto Star's stumble at the final fence in Saturday's Betfair Chase has generated plenty of discussion; certain people seem to think the horse's best days are behind him. When questioned on this matter at Aintree on Sunday trainer Paul Nicholls' reaction was 'Absolute bullshit!' Good to see Mr. Nicholls isn't standing for any nonsense. I thought Kauto didn't pick up as well as you would have expected in the home straight but he was upsides at the last and, in my opinion, would have gone on to win had he not fallen. Peter Bowen's 33/1 winner Snoopy Loopy has almost been forgotten in the fallout; the horse is one of twenty one five-day entries for Saturday's Hennessy. Although jockey Seamus Durack was hard at work a fair way out on this ten year old, once the old-timer got to the front, it looked as though there was still something left in the tank. He's currently 18/1 with Skybet if you're tempted...

Eight tickets shared the monster Scoop6 pot, each winning just over £437,000. The winners also have the chance to go for the nominated £1.5 million bonus race which is likely to be Saturday's Hennessy at Newbury. The Tote's turnover was £4.1 million; compare that to the £3.8 million taken by the Nanny on all races on Gold Cup day in March. On Tuesday some real shrewdies took the 50/1 offered about business breaking the £4 million barrier; by Friday the book was suspended with the price at just 2/1.

The one that caught my eye from yesterday's Aintree card was Serabad in the Toteswinger Handicap Hurdle. Having only recently returned to Peter Bowen's yard, the horse was thought to need the run but, carrying 11st 9lbs on soft ground, he won going away. The trainer's comment afterwards that there was more improvement to come is worth noting.

The Tote's biggest day ever...

A week ago a Tote representative described the forthcoming Scoop6 as the biggest day in their history. So excited were the Tote, they even made a reference to this blog on their own Scoop6 blog! Seven days later, and we look forward to a day's racing that will knock last week into a cocked hat; some reports estimate £5 million will be up for grabs. At the time of writing doubts surround the participation of two runners in the six selected races; according to my elementary maths, this reduces the possible number of winning combinations from 4,181,760 to 3,484,800. Two potential non-runners and my chances of winning increase by over 696,000! There seems little doubt that the pool will be won this weekend. It's ironic that the all-weather, so often perceived as racing's poor-relation, provides the main backdrop to this richest ever pot. For those interested in trying to collect those all-weather millions, I again offer two suggestions per race which should be used as nothing more than a starting point; good luck to you all...

2.10 Lingfield: Markab, My Gacho;

2.40 Lingfield: Spring Goddess, Secret Night;

2.45 Haydock: Bill's Echo, Naunton Brook;

3.20 Lingfield: Bronze Cannon, Re Barolo;

3.30 Huntingdon: Rebel Melody, Low Delta;

3.50 Lingfield: Ceremonial Jade, Prohibit.

The Tote's big day

A Tote representative has been quoted as saying that tomorrow will be the biggest day in their history. There's £2 million plus up for grabs in the Scoop6 pot; with that sort of money on offer, it seems churlish not to have a go. I've done some limited spadework. If you're the sort of character who sees the virtually impossible as just another challenge, I suggest you use the two selections per race listed below as nothing more than a starting point...

2.00 Cheltenham: Halcon Genelardais, Simon;

2.35 Cheltenham: Imperial Commander, Bible Lord;

2.55 Wetherby: Killard Point, Ice Tea;

3.10 Cheltenham: Sullumo, Copsale Lad;

3.25 Wetherby: Edas, Smoothly Does It;

3.45 Cheltenham: Hernando Royal, Gloucester.

I wish you the very best of luck.

Some snippets

Mastercraftsman's victory in yesterday's National Stakes at the Curragh takes Ballydoyle's total of Group One victories for the season to twenty. Aidan O'Brien is quoted at 1/5 to break the current record of twenty five wins.

Many who saw Zakarva take Sunday's Prix Vermeille at Longchamp believe they saw the winner of the Arc; the filly is now quoted as low as 6/4 for that race.

In the Listed six-furlong sprint at Chester on Saturday the two fancied horses, Angus Newz and Look Busy, were drawn favourably in stalls one and two respectively. The market really favoured Look Busy (6/4f) and that's what the formbook pointed to. It was fairly obvious Angus Newz would try to make all up against the running rail; jockey S. O'Hara's ride on the favourite didn't look too stylish, particularly as he apperared to have difficulty drawing his whip through as they raced in the final furlong. Look Busy shouldn't have been turned over here.

Jonjo O'Neill's runners are going well at the moment. I liked the look of his Fresh Air And Fun over an extended two and three quarter miles at Stratford yesterday, up against the Twiston-Davies hotpot Diablo who had been racing over the minimum trip. Various distractions got in the way so I never made it to the bookies; needless to say Fresh Air And Fun won at 4/1. He looks one to keep an eye on.

For those who find the Saturday Scoop 6 too easy (I don't include myself in that number - I'm presently struggling with the Scoop 1), our friends at totesport have introduced the totesuper7 wager which you can play on any day from Sunday through to Friday. All you have to do is pick the winners of seven selected races; should you manage just five or six winners, totesport will kindly pay out a consolation dividend...

Caption noted in Channel Four's coverage on Saturday:
3.45 Doncaster 6. Racer Forever - Non-runner.

Weekend round-up

Haydock fell to the weather but there was drama aplenty at Ascot with Twist Magic beaten soundly by Tamarinbleu. Paul Nicholls blamed the heavy ground while Teletext reported that jockey Ruby Walsh told the trainer after the race TM would win the Champion Chase on decent ground.

Tamarinbleu's performance reminded me somewhat of Lough Derg's front running exploits when taking the Long Walk Hurdle last month. A David Pipe trained outsider at Ascot, ridden from the front by Tom Scudamore, gallops his rivals into submission to secure a big prize - could this be the beginning of a trend?

I know many heathens don't understand horse racing's appeal but the graphic pictures the BBC transmitted, after the race, of Nigel Twiston-Davies urging Mahogany Blaze to the line spoke volumes. The horse was collared in the shadow of the post by Nick Gifford's Wee Robbie; Twiston-Davies, literally quivering, practically rode the finish himself. That's why we do it, for the sheer damn excitement of it all.

As has been widely reported, Tony McCoy is on the mend following an operation on his back earlier in the week. He remains confident he'll be riding at the Cheltenham Festival. I dare say he'll be aiming to return before then in order to build up his physical fitness.

The abandonment of Haydock meant there was no Scoop6 this weekend, but I'm sure it remains a mystery to many punters why, when racing is taking place on a Saturday, they can't have a Scoop6 bet.

The BBC's Ceefax racing service is suffering death by a thousand cuts. The Teletext service is now far more comprehensive, although I've found the RSS feed provided by the site flaky on occasions.

Haydock and Ascot tomorrow

The clerks at both Haydock and Ascot have said they're optimistic racing will take place tomorrow but, having just seen the weather forecast, I think it will be a close call; both courses are scheduled to hold inspections in the morning.

In the opener at Haydock Paul Nicholls' Five Dream will be sent off a short priced favourite. In the previous eight runnings of this race the winner has come from the top three in the betting. For me the interesting one is Sir Harry Ormesher. This horse has decent form with Deep Purple on unsuitably fast ground; he was pulled out of the Tolworth two weeks ago and is known to appreciate some cut, but whether he'll act on going this heavy is another matter altogether. Looking back through his form, I see he has previously boiled over in the preliminaries; I'll consider an each way dabble at around 12/1.

The Champion Hurdle Trial (1.25) looks a match between Afsoun and Straw Bear and I prefer Straw Bear. Torkinking is only small but as tough as old boots, will probably make the running and has conditions to suit. If he's allowed an easy lead, he could possibly stay on into a place.

The Peter Marsh Chase looks very competitive; the one that catches my eye is Simon who will act on the ground and stay all day.

In the finale What A Buzz is a strapping horse with reasonable each way prospects who has run well on heavy ground previously, but I'll wait until tomorrow before deciding whether to back him or not.

At Ascot I'll be watching the Victor Chandler Chase and the Lightning Novices' Chase closely but I won't get involved. Twist Magic is expected to win the VC and shore up his position at the head of the Champion Chase market, while the novice chase looks between Mahogany Blaze and Marodima. I prefer the former, although, as the season has progressed, I think Marodima has learned to settle better. Wee Robbie is highly regarded but has been racing over further and could possibly come on for this, his first run of the season.

Generally, with the size of tomorrow's fields on the small side, I thought it might be worth looking at a Scoop6 wager, but the crafty devils at Totesport have included four all-weather races from Lingfield for this week's offering. For the record the races are: Lingfield 1.55, Lingfield 2.25, Lingfield 3.00, Haydock 3.05, Lingfield 3.35, Haydock 3.40.

One big Scoop6 Saturday

This Saturday's Scoop6 will be advertised as worth £2.5 million to a single winner. The win fund is currently worth just over £958,000 and the bonus fund £715,000. According to my calculations, there are 21,162,960 possible winning combinations; often horse racing is as much about numbers as horses. Both my regular readers will testify that, recently, I've had trouble tipping the winner of an eight runner bumper at Ludlow, never mind attempting six consecutive winners across three cards. I suppose it must be a challenge thing...

Leg 1 2.05 Newmarket: Cesare / Toylsome
Leg 2 2.20 Cheltenham: From Dawn To Dusk
Leg 3 3.05 Catterick: Matsunosuke
Leg 4 3.15 Newmarket: Literato
Leg 5 3.30 Cheltenham: Knowhere
Leg 6 3.55 Newmarket: Dr Sharp / Macorville
4 lines.

For the less reckless, Dr Sharp appears to have a decent each way chance in The Cesarewitch (and a good draw as well.) Over at Cheltenham, the 5.15 looks a hot novice chase. Likely favourite Patman Du Charmil is worth taking on with either Blu Teen or Ice Tea. Blu Teen disappointed when odds on at Market Rasen recently but Paul Nicholls commented that he was a big gross horse who was hard to get fit. The Racing Post adds that the animal bled last time so I'll take a chance with Ice Tea who jumped much better when winning well at Hexham last time and will be a bigger price as well.

Of course the Rugby World Cup final will dominate tomorrow's action. I'd expect a close game; at current prices England are the value. Whatever happens, let's hope potential try scorers ground the ball a little better than this unfortunate player...

Record Scoop6 pot shared

The Racing Post and Channel 4 Racing have given plenty of publicity to the record breaking pot up for grabs in today's Scoop6 pool. All you had to do was pick six winners of the six nominated races to gain a share of over £1.5 million.

At 8 o'clock this morning there were 5,989,950 possible winning combinations. Taking into account non-runners and withdrawals, that number had shrunk quite considerably to 2,270,268 (9x28x7x13x9x11) by the time the races were run.

In the event 11 winners collect just under £154,000 each, with considerably less accompanying coverage because, as we all know, a single £1million plus winner is a bookmaker's publicity dream. The eleven winners have the chance to go for a share of the £1 million plus bonus pot next week.

Just for the record, I try to avoid this type of bet; I find it difficult enough to select one winner, never mind six.