From the sublime to the ridiculous

This week we've seen the sublime and we've seen the ridiculous.

Frankel barely had to engage second gear to take Wednesday's Juddmonte International at York; writing as Thunderer in today's Times, Stephen Pollard informs us the great horse '...has achieved perfection.'

In marked contrast bookmakers Betfred have incurred the wrath of most by refusing to pay out on a grandmother's 200/1 Olympic medal wager; Sam Oldham won team bronze in the gymnastics but Betfred have refused a payout as the medal was won in a team, rather than an individual, event. Hmmm.

For the final day of the Ebor meeting here are a couple of tips which, come five o'clock on Saturday afternoon, you're likely to consider ridiculous rather than sublime...

The feature race is the Ebor at 3.40. In the past I've leant towards horses with some NH form for this event; this approach has proved decidedly unsuccessful over the years but I'm past caring. Four qualify this year - Steps To Freedom, Crackentorp, Royal Diamond and Blue Bajan.

Top weight Steps To Freedom looks up against it - only Sea Pigeon (1979) has carried more than 9-4 to victory in the past 50 years. At the age of ten, Blue Bajan appears to face a similarly stiff task; Sea Pigeon was aged nine when recording his victory - since then no horse older than six has come home in front.

In the past nine renewals the winner has come from of a double-digit stall on eight occasions - Royal Diamond doesn't appear to have the best of draws (stall 2) and his tendency to race from the front could leave him vulnerable up the long home straight.

Crackentorp has a better draw (17) but, on stats, can't win at the age of seven and last time out put in a slightly disappointing performance behind Mount Athos. Mount Athos has gone in again since and now heads for the Melbourne Cup, so perhaps I'm being a little harsh there... Previously Crackentorp finished second to Ile De Re in Newcastle's Northumberland Plate run on heavy ground. That day Icon Dream was third and tomorrow's favourite Motivado thirteenth.

The two I'm interested in at a price are Crackentorp and Icon Dream; on Northumberland Plate running there's little between them. Crackentorp is 16/1 with most layers while Icon Dream is 25/1 so I'll take a small each-way interest in Icon Dream (drawn 19) - most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.

In the preceding Lonsdale Cup (3.05) I haven't totally written off Willie Mullins' Simenon. This one finished sixth behind Saddler's Rock in the Goodwood Cup last time but was only beaten four and a half lengths. On ratings he has plenty to find with several of these and on a literal interpretation can't reverse form with Saddler's. Having said that, I'm re-reading Ruby Walsh's autobiography at the moment and Ruby's comments about Willie Mullins make me think the great man wouldn't send his charge over if he didn't think the gelding was in with a shout. Simenon was done for toe in the final furlong at Goodwood; priced up early at 16/1 with William Hill, I'll bet Simenon each-way - any rain at the track will aid his cause.

Notes on some of Saturday's runners...

Horses with previous NH form running in Flat races over a distance of more than one and a half miles this Saturday...

York 3.05 Lonsdale Cup (2m):
Blue Bajan, Bergo, Elyaadi.

Blue Bajan, beaten a head and a neck into third in the Goodwood Cup (Bergo a couple more lengths away in fifth), is three pounds better off with winner Opinion Poll who took this event last year. The mare Elyaddi, second in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, will appreciate cut underfoot, a comment that also applies to Harris Tweed, but has plenty to find on official ratings. That was a fine effort by Bergo on his seasonal reappearance but the 'bounce' factor is a worry and he's shown his best form on top of the ground.
Suggestion: Blue Bajan win.

York 3.40 Ebor Handicap (1m 6f):
Salute Him, Cill Rialaig, Investissement, Hillview Boy.

As you'd expect, an ultra-competitive handicap. This race has seen some big-priced winners in recent times - Mediterranean 16/1 2001; Hugs Dance 25/1 2002; Saint Alebe 20/1 2003; Mudawin 100/1 2006 and Sesenta 25/1 2009. In the past decade no horse over the age of six has won the event. Irish runner Salute Him, an eight-year-old, was fifth in this last year and makes some each-way appeal at 25/1 but Hillview Boy hasn't been seen since finishing ninth last year - are connections plotting a cunning coup? Investissement may have been a little flattered when finishing third behind Petara Bay at Goodwood the last time and doesn't look the easiest of rides. Cill Rialaig has an Exeter bumper over 13 furlongs on soft ground to her name so Hughie Morrison's mare should stay the trip here. Both Betfred and totesport pay five places on this race.
Suggestion: Salute Him each way.

Chester 4.10 Chester Stakes (1m 5f):
No qualifiers.

Chester 5.15 (1m 7f):
Amazing King, Lastroseofsummer, French Hollow, Calisto Moon, Hallstaff

Amazing King ran well at this course last time and should appreciate both the going and the step-up in trip having previously won a Southwell beginners' chase over two miles. Lastroseofsummer is a front-running mare who is in very good form at the moment while French Hollow won at 66/1 on his penultimate run and has gone in again since but is one who likes to come from off the pace. Callisto Moon has tried his luck with several trainers and has plenty of miles on the clock but Halstatt is eight pounds better off with French Hollow and was hampered in running in that race. An open event which has seen four of the last five winners carry more than 9-5 to victory - I'll chance Amazing King.
Suggestion: Amazing King each-way (8/1 or bigger).

Bath 8.10 (1m 5f)
A poor grade 6 handicap in which several runners have previous NH form. Michael Scudamore's Red Current would be worth a second look but only at a price.
No suggestion.

Those waiting for the return of the jumpers may want to note Perth's 3.45, the Scottish Hydro Summer Champion Hurdle, for future reference. Overturn takes his chance but he's likely to have a fight for the lead with Paul Webber's Australia Day in the line-up. Irish course and distance winners Brave Beauty and Now This Is It catch the eye - the latter finished second in a race at the Galway Festival but isn't certain to be suited by the step back in trip.   

Ebor meeting - Nunthorpe Stakes

My Ebor selections have hardly set the world alight so, for the sake of completeness only, you understand, a tentative suggestion for the Nunthorpe is Richard Fahey's course and distance winner Rose Blossom, provided the ground remains on the fast side. Jockey Paul Hanagan has a word for the filly in this week's Weekender; she wears cheekpieces for the first time here. On official ratings she has plenty to find with several of these but that fact is reflected in the 20/1 quoted by some layers. I'll have an each-way wager but profess to being more hopeful than confident, particularly with the likes of Starspangledbanner, Equiano, Kingsgate Native and Fleeting Spirit in the line-up.

A quick Ebor tip for the Ebor meeting

My two regular readers, faithful but penniless, know that this season I've been struck by how many NH trained horses have plundered long distance races on the Flat. Overturn continued the trend by taking Newcastle's Northumberland Plate from an unfancied draw before running away with last month's Galway Hurdle. He doesn't have the best of draws here and hardly offers value in this ultra competitive event but is respected nonetheless. The one that caught my eye was Desert Sea who ran third behind Overturn in the Newcastle Plate; he reopposes here four pounds better off for a three and a quarter length beating. He wouldn't necessarily appreciate any rain but has a decent draw, should benefit from the slightly shorter trip and is priced up at 28/1 with a couple of layers this evening (Victor Chandler and Stan James). I'll take a small each-way interest in Desert Sea, noting that all layers go a quarter the odds four places for this heritage handicap.

No bet in the Gimcrack but I'd be thinking long and hard before opposing Temple Meads who looked impressive in winning Newbury's Super Sprint and is expected to relish the step up to six furlongs.

I fancied Ask for the Lonsdale Cup but he was found lame this morning and is a non-runner. Illustrious Blue and Electrolyser fought out the finish to the Goodwood Cup three weeks ago, the former prevailing by just over a length on that occasion; many will fancy Electrolyser here three pounds better off. The Queen's gelding Free Agent was hampered in that same race and finished fourth, having won at this course previously; he isn't one I'd trust implicitly. I think I'm going to watch from the sidelines...

A week away...

I returned from a week's holiday to reports of a record crowd at Newbury, explained by the fact that Simply Red were playing after racing... Godolphin's Kite Wood took the Geoffrey Freer in fine style and is now quoted second favourite with most firms for the St Leger which is set to be run on September 12th - William Hill offer 5/1. Godolphin's other high profile runner at the meeting, Evasive, was sent off the 10/11 favourite for the Hungerford Stakes but disappointed, trailling in a well-beaten sixth behind the quirky but talented Balthazaar's Gift.

At Newmarket sixteen grey horses contested the snappily-named 'Win £100,000 With Soccer Saturday Super 6 Grey Horse Handicap'; Sarah's Art, trained by Steph Liddiard, collected the spoils. The same trainer had provided something of a shock two days earlier when 25/1 shot Mac Love took the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes run over a mile at Salisbury, beating odds-on hotpot Confront one and a half lengths.

York will be the centre of attention this week. On Tuesday Sea The Stars faces just four rivals in the Juddmonte International while current St Leger favourite Harbinger doesn't appear to have the easiest of tasks in the Great Voltigeur. Wednesday's main feature is the Ebor, in which I'm looking to have an each-way bet on Alan King's Manyriverstocross. In the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday Michael Bell's Sariska could make her reappearance after winning the Irish Oaks in sensational style. I think regular pilot Jamie Spencer is set to serve a suspension so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride if the filly is allowed to take her chance. The Nunthorpe run over five furlongs is Friday's highlight - Kingsgate Native won the race two years ago when trained by John Best; Sir Michael Stoute will be hoping for a repeat in this year's renewal.

I'm not keen on holidays for a variety of reasons, one of which is that when you return from the horror of it all, you then have to wade through hundreds of emails, thousands if you're popular but I wouldn't know about that, the vast majority of which are of no interest whatsoever. Two from this year's trawl...

Firstly, Ashley Rumney's Trainers Jumps Statistics 2008-2009 was published on Friday (according to Amazon) and is available with a 15% discount from that supplier. Secondly, readers may be interested to learn that the Racing Post continues to pursue my custom. A fortnight after helpfully bringing to my attention the fact I could subscribe to their Members' Club at the price of a third of a loaf of bread a day, the RP has been shopping down Sainsbury's again. This time I'm informed the cost of the Members' Club is half the price of a bottle of water a day - the water in question being the 500ml Highland Spring Sportscap (June 2009 price). Bread, water, whatever will be next on the RP's shopping list? And will they continue to shop at Sainsbury's? To find out the answers to these burning questions, I'm deliberately going to refrain from subscribing. Rest assured though, I shall keep you informed of all developments.

Goodwood and Newmarket

In today's races which were rescheduled from York's abandoned meeting, Lush Lashes (evens) won the Oaks, Borderlescott (12/1) the Nunthorpe and Enawin (25/1) the St Leger Yearling Stakes at Newmarket. Over in Berkshire Shaweed (16/1) won the Gimcrack and All The Good (25/1) the Newburgh Heritage Handicap, created as a substitute for the Ebor.

Tomorrow the Lowther (1.25) and the Juddmonte International (3.35) will be staged at Newmarket while Goodwood host the Great Voltigeur (2.10).

I'm sticking with New Approach to win the Juddmonte; drier ground will suit favourite Duke Of Marmalade. Let's hope we see a race to remember.

At Goodwood I'm going to take a chance on Meydan City turning over Patkai in the Voltigeur. Patkai showed an exceptional turn of foot at Royal Ascot but I'm not certain he'll be able to display it on the softer ground he encounters here. Meydan City handles the going and offers value against the odds-on favourite.

In the Windflower March Stakes Luca Cumani's Sandbuch is the top-rated horse and gets the vote, while Raven's Pass deserves a Group 1 and can collect the Celebration Mile. He's likely to start long odds-on and consequently is no betting proposition but if the rain comes there may some value by opposing him with Bankable.

Knavesmire quagmire

Following today's noon inspection, the remaining two days of York's flagship Ebor meeting have been abandoned. The Cambridge Advance Learner's Dictionary describes quagmire as 'an area of soft wet ground you sink into if you try and walk on it'. That just about sums up the Knavesmire at the moment.

Of course, every cloud has a silver lining. Several work colleagues had planned on attending today and, unwisely, had asked me to mark their card. Now they stand to lose just their pre-booked train fare - come this evening, they'll think they're quids in.

It never rains but it pours...

Today's card at York's flagship Ebor meeting has fallen to the weather and so has Wednesday's. Judging from this photo on the Sporting Life website, racing on Thursday must be in serious doubt - an inspection takes place at noon tomorrow.

All dressed up with nowhere to go? Time to get out the Escalado!

York Ebor meeting - Tuesday

It seems unbelievable yet you half expected it - heavy going on the opening day of York's Ebor meeting and the prospect of more rain to come. Duke Of Marmalade will be allowed to take his chance in the Juddmonte International even though connections have indicated the ground won't suit. New Approach looks the obvious alternative but no longer offers much value from a betting perspective. At the time of writing Ladbrokes go 5/4 the Duke 6/4 New Approach.

The Great Voltigeur looks trappy too, given that the current St. Ledger favourite, Patkai, isn't certain to handle conditions; he showed an impressive turn of foot on firm ground in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. Alessandro Volta has better form but may also find the testing ground unsuitable. It's all so devilishly tricky, isn't it? I think I'm going to watch these races without getting involved...

Byte-sized bits

York's Ebor meeting starts on Tuesday, the first day's highlight being the clash between Duke Of Marmalade and New Approach in the Juddmonte International. Last night Victor Chandler went out on a limb by offering 7/2 New Approach. Twenty four hours later, New Approach is a best-priced 5/2 shot with Coral, and as low as 7/4 with Boylesports.

Paco Boy's turn of foot looked exceptional as he destroyed a decent field in yesterday's Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. It was interesting to hear Ryan Moore say afterwards that the horse's best trip is seven furlongs.

At the same meeting Johnny Murtagh managed to get Sixties Icon up in the shadow of the post to win the Geoffrey Freer, much to the relief of favourite backers. Murtagh, the Coolmore number one, is having a wonderful season, but not everyone is a fan - Mike De Kock was furious with the jockey's ride in last week's Arlington Million that effectively prevented his Archipenko from collecting the spoils.

Ebor aftermath

It's that time of the year; the best of the Flat has passed and the anticipation of the forthcoming jumping season begins to kick in. Alan King's 140 strong yard has received a bit of press coverage recently; we can expect similar articles about the bigger National Hunt yards in the weeks ahead.

That's not to say that the Flat is over and done with. Recently I was asked by a friend of a friend about a horse from the Cumani stable called Bauer which had an entry in the Ebor. I looked at the bare form and didn't think it was up to Ebor standard but the exercise was academic anyway as the horse failed to make the cut. However the Cumani operation was covered in a recent Weekender 'Straight From The Stable' feature. The write up for Bauer was pretty positive actually, using phrases such as 'stayed on well [behind the winner who] set a course record', 'progressive last year', 'more improvement to come'. He's entered in a handicap at Chester over one mile five furlongs this Saturday and will certainly be worth a second look on the back of those Weekender comments.

Totesport Ebor

Peeping Fawn will be the star attraction at York tomorrow when taking on six opponents in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks. She doesn't rate a bet as she's expected to start long odds on, but in my opinion she has been the outstanding horse this Flat season; I hope it proves a race to savour.

The Ebor, due off at 2.35, sees twenty runners racing over a distance of one mile six furlongs. Purple Moon has been hurdling with Nicky Richards and then returned to the Flat all the better for the experience; he's eight pounds well in on current handicap ratings and will be a popular choice. Paul Cole's Strategic Mount looks interesting but I'm not convinced he stays the distance at this level so a small wager on Scriptwriter, who has the benefit of a low draw, is advised in this competitive handicap.