Cold comfort

As a belated Father's Day present, a few weeks ago I was given tickets to tomorrow's Classic Chase meeting at Warwick; unfortunately that particular avenue of enjoyment has been scuppered by the cold weather -  along with the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle Day meeting at Kempton and the William Hill Medieval Raceday at Wetherby.

The feature from the Wetherby card, the Towton Novices' Chase, has been expeditiously transferred to the replacement meeting at Ffos Las which still has to pass an inspection tomorrow morning. 

The Met Office reports overnight temperatures at the Welsh track will remain above freezing while an update on Turftrax indicates the course was 'raceable' at 11.30 this morning.

Nonetheless, such is my disappointment at the abandonment of the Warwick fixture, I can barely summon the strength required to open a form book, never mind identify an each-way wager that makes any appeal.

Rosscahill and One Big Bang dominate the market for the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle (2.58). 

The former looked beaten after the last last time but stayed on powerfully to deny Ben Solo and tries this new trip on his first run in a handicap; the latter, second behind Shoot First at Haydock on his penultimate start, looked held on 127 at Cheltenham - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Soft ground at Ffos Las saps like nowhere else - Rosscahill, Mahland, Up For Parol, Stolen Silver, Balkardy, and Classic Concorde have all previously won at the track.

Mel Rowley's team are in good form but the price about Mahland has disappeared.

Stolen Silver, rated 154 over fences, goes off 141 and held five day entries for the Lanzarote and the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This looks less competitive but the Sam Thomas trained grey jumped the Aintree hurdles as though they were fences nine weeks ago.

Up For Parol held the same five day entries as Stolen Silver, with the Lanzarote the probable target, Jamie Snowden's charge having finished sixth, third and thirteenth in the last three renewals of the Kempton showpiece.

On seasonal debut Up For Parol came home second, 18 lengths behind runaway winner Henri The Second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Sandown five weeks ago, with West To The Bridge a further 11 lengths adrift in fourth.

Classic Concorde finished ninth behind Val Dancer in the Welsh National last time but is rated six pounds higher over hurdles.

Madaket is reported to have schooled well over fences; Micheal Nolan reported the gelding 'stopped quickly' in a Chepstow handicap hurdle 15 days ago. 

Alan De Banks and Balkardy both race from out of the handicap. 

The former makes his handicap debut for a yard that hasn't sent out a winner for 61 days while the latter has struggled over the larger obstacles. Handler Evan Williams recently said of his charge [RP Weekender Straight from the Stable 26-30.12.24]:

"He's not very big and fences get in his way sometimes, but he's very genuine. He's a joy to have around the place and I hope he can carry on giving a good account of himself."

When I learnt of the replacement activity organised as a substitute for my Father's Day trip to the Warwick races, any enthusiasm I might have mustered for a Ffos Las fancy sapped straight out of my shoes - a walk around Kenilworth's Castle & Abbey Trail.

I'll keep my powder dry for another day. 

The 2024 Classic Chase at Warwick

Unusually five of the fourteen declared for tomorrow's Classic Chase (3.00 Warwick) are mares: Malina Girl; Galia Des Liteaux; Fontaine Collonges; Credo; and My Silver Lining.

Favourite Malina Girl won the three mile three and a half furlong Jewson Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in November (Guetepan Collonges third, City Chief fourth) and was promptly raised from a mark of 135 to 146 for her trouble. 

Next time out Gavin Cromwell's mare looked the most likely challenger to eventual winner Broadway Boy when coming to grief three from home in another Cheltenham handicap last month; Broadway Boy, now rated 150, runs in the Hampton Novices' Chase at 2.24.

She has been allocated 12-00 here but Conor Stone-Walsh's five pound claim means Galia Des Liteaux shoulders top weight with 11-10. 

2012 winner Hey Big Spender remains the only winner to have carried top weight to victory.

Galia Des Liteaux won last year's renewal of the Hampton before finishing fifth in the Brown Advisory at the Festival, just over 16 lengths behind The Real Whacker. 

She subsequently finished fourth, 15 lengths behind Gerri Colombe in the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree in April, losing two places before the final flight. 

At odds of 2/5f it was a surprise to see her beaten by Pink Legend at Newbury last month - connections fit cheekpieces for her first run in handicap company. 

On seasonal debut Fontaine Collonges unshipped Ned Fox at the first and, running loose, caused plenty of problems for the other runners in the London National at Sandown. 

Next time out she won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. 

Into Overdrive set a brisk pace up front that day but off the home bend the race developed into a match between the eventual winner and Empire Steel. Empire Steel appeared to have the initiative coming to three out but a mistake put paid to his chance and Venetia Williams' charge stayed on strongly to win 14 lengths.

That looked quite a hard race; she has been raised seven pounds for the win and, just 18 days later, I'm worried this might come a little too quickly.

Back in April, in receipt of 15 pounds, My Silver Lining beat Credo 31 lengths in the Mares' Handicap Chase Final at Cheltenham. 

My Silver Lining won at Wincanton in October and finished second behind Animal at Sandown last time - Emma Lavelle's charge stayed on well that day. The grey's profile suggests she may prefer racing right-handed.

Credo, I believe, also won at Wincanton in October and has twice finished behind Famous Bridge at Haydock; she's racing off a mark ten pounds higher and I'm not convinced this step up in trip will suit.

Guetepan Collonges was sent off 5/1 favourite for this race last year, finishing fourth behind Iwilldoit (Volcano fifth). This year he tries again off a mark ten pounds higher. 

This one stays well but was outpaced at the business end in Malina Girl's race last time - that seems to have happened here last year as well and also when fourth behind Major Dundee in the Midlands Grand National.

Connections of Major Dundee have a tilt at the Grand National in their sights after that victory at Uttoxeter and the gelding's previous third behind Win My Wings in the 2022 Scottish Grand National. 

Alan King's charge prefers racing left-handed and this has been the target for quite some time. 

He got stuck in the heavy ground behind Nassalam at Chepstow last time and will need to keep close tabs on the pacemakers at this track; connections fit a visor for the first time which apparently worked well in a recent schooling session.

Beauport's jumping is often plagued by niggling errors but his two efforts this term merit respect - fifth behind Victtorino at Ascot and then beaten one and a quarter lengths by Truckers Lodge in the London National (Broken Halo a faller).

In a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter back in March 2022 Beauport beat Boothill conceding seven pounds; he might be well handicapped here as his chase rating (141) is seven pounds lower than his hurdle rating.

Broken Halo was close enough and hadn't been asked a question when coming to grief at the penultimate flight in the London National. His best form is on right-handed tracks and handler Paul Nicholls has indicated it took his charge a while to recover from that fall.

Percussion has run well over the Aintree National fences previously but stable form is a concern.

Of those at bigger prices, course and distance winner Volcano's running style is suited to this track;  the grey has been nibbled at in the market. He finished fifth last year and this year is only two pounds out of the handicap.

Rapper's fourth behind Broadway Boy at Cheltenham is worth a second look - he was beaten under nine lengths, one and a half lengths ahead of City Chief. 

He has yet to race over this marathon distance but didn't look like stopping when winning over an extended three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham on New Year's Day 2023.

Duc De Beauchene won the Norfolk National at Fakenham in May but has been out of form since.

As always, a very competitive renewal.

I'm going to side with Major Dundee; off 135 he'll need to go close here for any realistic hope of going on to Aintree for the big one in April.

Major Dundee is the each-way suggestion, 9/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and bet365 paying four places.

The 2023 Classic Chase at Warwick

Princess Camilla won the inaugural running of what is now known as the Classic Chase in 1973. 

The going for tomorrow's 50th anniversary of that inaugural running is currently described as heavy, soft in places. Fourteen have been declared, and further rain has been forecast before the scheduled off-time of 3.00 pm.

There have been 12 abandonments over the years, and only 12 winners have carried more than 11-00 to victory - four of them in the past decade: Shotgun Paddy 11-07, 2014; Milansbar 11-02, 2018; Kimberlite Candy 11-04, 2020; and Eclair Surf 11-03, 2022.

Hey Big Spender (2012) remains the only horse to have carried top weight to victory.

At the time of writing the Willie Mullins trained Mr Incredible heads the market. 

I saw this one beaten over 30 lengths by Ahoy Senor at Newbury in November 2021 when trained by Henry De Bromhead. 

He didn't jump well that day, refused to race in first-time cheekpieces next time out and has failed to complete on both subsequent starts.

Threeunderthrufive got no further than the first in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury seven weeks ago. 

He looks to have a difficult task carrying top weight on heavy ground but last year he made all and jumped well to win the Hampton Novices' Chase at this meeting.

Lord Du Mesnil can be a moody character but when he's in the mood he's very good. 

His second behind Le Milos in the Sir Charles Lowther Plate at Bangor in November reads very well (Notachance fourth, Grumpy Charley pulled up) as the winner that day went on to win the Coral Gold Cup. 

I'm wary as I've burned my fingers with 'the Lord' before and I just wonder whether he will stay this trip on heavy ground. In the 2020 Grand National Trial run over an extended three and a half mile trip at Haydock he was outstayed by Smooth Stepper. 

Grumpy Charley made connections very happy next time out, winning the Mandarin Chase at Newbury on New Year's Eve; he has been raised six pounds for that effort.

Iwilldoit appeared particularly well-named when winning the 2021 Welsh Grand National but we haven't seen him since. 

Sam Thomas' charge wasn't ready to run in this year's Chepstow showpiece and makes his seasonal debut here. His price appears to be on the drift this evening. 

Slipway was of interest at the five day declaration stage but handler Ben Pauling declared Nestor Park instead. 

Although the gelding has won only one of his 12 chase starts to date, he finished third behind No Cruise Yet (4/1 favourite Wouldubewell sixth) at Haydock last time.

Guetepan Collonges looks short enough in the market for a horse that hasn't always been fluent at his fences and has contested Class 4 and Class 5 chases to date. Handler Charlie Longsdon has described the gelding as 'a horse on the up'.

I tipped Fortescue for this year's Welsh National but he couldn't hold his pitch and looked beaten after the first fence. 

If they go a bit slower in this ground it will certainly help his cause but I don't think underfoot conditions are going to help Commodore.

Dingo Dollar has looked revitalised since a move to Sandy Thomson's yard which is operating at a 50% win strike-rate over the past fortnight. Miss Alice Stevens claims seven and the fact connections have decided to make the long trip south suggests they think he will be competitive.

Wouldubewell hails from the yard that won this last year with Eclair Surf and the mare, a remote sixth in the Welsh National last time out, could well be overpriced at 33/1.  Current stable form is a concern.

Course and distance winner Volcano runs from out of the handicap while Grand Mogul isn't guaranteed to see out the trip.

I'm going to take a chance with Notachance who won this two years ago off 139 and goes off 130 tomorrow. 

Writing in the Weekender handler Alan King tells readers the gelding lost his confidence after suffering an injury behind Lord Du Mesnil at Haydock next time out (20.02.21) and it has taken a long time to restore it.

Wearing a first-time visor he finished eighth in this race last year, 83 lengths behind Eclair Surf.  

His third behind Captain Cattistock at Cheltenham in April (13.04.22) marked an improvement and his fourth behind Le Milos at Bangor on seasonal debut confirmed progress. 

The handicapper dropped him a further two pounds for the Bangor run so he races tomorrow with 10-07. The trainer says he goes well fresh so has been deliberately kept back for this. 

Stable jockey Tom Cannon rides here (rather than Harbour Lake in the Lanzarote at Kempton) and Mr King is on record saying Warwick is his favourite track.

I'm hoping Notachance's confidence doesn't receive a setback tomorrow because if he's back to somewhere near his best, he must have some sort of chance. 

Notachance is the each-way suggestion, generally a 9/1 chance with Sky Bet and Paddy Power paying five places. 

Warwick's Classic Chase 2022

I can't quite recall the last time I tipped a horse that even placed in Warwick's Classic Chase and, with recent results predictably more miss than hit, I thought I'd check out Old Moore's Almanac for inspiration. 

The Almanac - a family favourite once upon a time - informs me that a nine-year-old carrying 10-11 may win this year's race. As the only nine-year-old declared, The Hollow Ginge, shoulders 11-11, and not one of the 15 runners has been allocated 10-11, I've had to revert to type.

Tomorrow's card needs to pass an 8.00 am inspection; frost sheets were deployed in vulnerable areas on Wednesday. The going is described as soft, good to soft in places on the chase course.

The quality of this year's race, due off at 3.00 pm, falls some way short of recent renewals, illustrated by the fact that Notachance won last year off 139 carrying 10-5 yet 12 months later tries to repeat the feat off the same handicap mark carrying 11-9.

Top weight tomorrow Corach Rambler goes off 142. Only once in the past ten years has the top weight been rated below that figure - Missed Approach rated 139 in 2018; in 2013 Auroras Encore raced off 142.

2012 winner Hey Big Spender remains the only horse to have carried top weight to victory - indeed, the only horse to have won carrying more than 11-7.

Corach Rambler's trainer, Lucinda Russell, collected the spoils with One For Arthur in 2017. She describes Corach Rambler as 'Scu's favourite horse'; having won his last two chase starts, the gelding has gone up a total of 15 pounds.

His chance is certainly respected but I'm not totally convinced this tight track will play to his strengths.

At the time of writing Gericault Roque heads the market, probably on the back of his noteworthy second behind Saint Palais in the Mandarin Chase at Newbury 17 days ago. 

I note this one is part-owned by Professor Caroline Tisdall and I'm just wondering whether connections see the gelding as a replacement for the recently retired Vieux Lion Rouge - with a crack at the Grand National the long-term aim.  

The horse has only had three chase starts to date and has yet to come home in front but David Pipe's charge has been well backed during the week. 

Evan Williams sent out Prime Venture to win the Veterans' Chase at Sandown last Saturday and Supreme Escape to win the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick yesterday. 

He saddles No Rematch here who has also been well backed. The trip shouldn't be a problem but this one has just two chase starts to his name.

In a race that can ride quite rough, I tend to prefer one with a little more experience over fences.

This has been the target for Notachance who ran well for a long way in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time and sports a first-time visor. 

Conceding five pounds he beat Achille half a length in last year's renewal (The Hollow Ginge pulled up) although the grey never looked likely to go past the leader. 

Venetia Williams' charge ran well to finish fourth behind Iwilldoit in an attritional Welsh National 19 days ago in which 15 of the 20 starters failed to finish. That looked a hard race and I wonder whether this might come a little too soon.

Padleyourowncanoe moved to Dan Skelton's yard at the beginning of November and just before Christmas ran a respectable third at odds of 40/1 behind Jesuitique in a Haydock hurdle. His fourth behind Minellacelebration off a mark of 140 in the 2020 Summer Cup at Uttoxeter reads well.

Eclair Surf was close enough to Iwilldoit in the Welsh Grand National Trial at the beginning of December but made a mistake five from home that put paid to his chance; on occasions his jumping  hasn't quite been up to scratch.

Grace A Vous Enki has been racing over fences in France but last time fell three out on his third hurdle start in this country. This will be the gelding's first try over fences over here; the only six-year-old to win this race was Colonel Christy in 1981.

Jerrysback and The Hollow Ginge wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but the latter underwent wind surgery after his latest run and his record after a break of 50 days or more reads 313211UP2. 

Chirico Vallis made all to defeat Kitty's Light a head at Chepstow in October - noteworthy form. That was run on good ground and I just wonder whether he'll stay this extended trip in prevailing conditions. 

In contrast Game Line has no stamina concerns having won the Norfolk National over three miles five furlongs in May and finished third in the Sussex National at Plumpton last time out. 

The handicapper dropped Peter Bowen's charge one pound after that run to a mark of 116; the lowest official rating of the past 10 winners is 122 (Rigadin De Beauchene in 2013).

Two recent Ludlow winners come into this in fine form. 

Head To The Stars beat Didero Vallis three lengths last time while Minella Encore beat Bobo Mac an eased-down 18 lengths and on the back of that performance is of interest. 

Dr Richard Newland's charge doesn't have a lot of mileage on the clock and looked to have benefitted from wind surgery at Fakenham in October before disappointing at Cheltenham the following month. The fitting of first-time blinkers certainly helped the cause at Ludlow, the handicapper subsequently raising the gelding nine pounds.

I'm hoping the blinkers can continue to work their magic and that the horse can see out see out this extended trip on this ground.

At the time of writing William Hill offer 14/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places.

Minella Encore is the each-way suggestion.

Warwick's Classic Chase 2021

In an upbeat column in this week's RP Weekender Alan King highlights the chance of Notachance in the Classic Chase (3.00); the trainer describes Warwick as 'probably my favourite course' and adds 'I've been very lucky there too'.

Warwick is my local track but I'm afraid I'm obliged to report none of Mr King's luck has rubbed off on me personally; perhaps I should take the hint.

This has been the target for Notachance following victory in the Anne Duchess of Westminster Memorial Handicap Chase at Bangor in November (The Two Amigos, second in the Welsh National at Chepstow last weekend, seven lengths adrift in third with Captain Chaos pulled up). 

At the time of writing Notacahnce is favourite and next up is, er, Captain Chaos. 

Dan Skelton's charge ran a blinder from the front in last year's renewal, eventually succumbing to the challenge of Kimberlite Candy approaching the last, with Petite Power third and Le Breuil fifth. Seven weeks later he gained deserved compensation when beating Worthy Farm 54 lengths in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster.

The Captain hasn't been in quite the same form this term (PP0) and, to be honest, I've always thought he was difficult to predict but I note connections have reapplied the blinkers for tomorrow's race. Captain Chaos first wore blinkers on 11th November 2017; his form figures when sporting blinkers read: 1141522621.

Walk In The Mill sports blinkers for the first-time - at the age of 11. This one is a bit of a character who tends to reserve his very best for the Grand National fences at Aintree; he blotted his copybook in the Becher last month, coming to grief at The Chair. The suspicion is the Aintree showpiece is the target once again (as it is for the 2019 Welsh National winner Potters Corner who goes in the Pertemps qualifier at 3.35). 

Thirteen have been declared for tomorrow's renewal with the ground currently described as soft, heavy in places - and further rain is forecast.

Top weight Ballyoptic stands his ground; Jordan Naylor lightens the burden with his five pound claim. Achille, Red Infantry, Django Django, Didero Vallis and Petite Power all race from out of the handicap (the last-named 12lbs 'wrong' at the weights). 

Le Breuil, Late Romantic and Red Infantry are all re-routed here after the cancellation of Thursday's meeting at Catterick where they were due to contest the North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap Chase.

The chance of Le Breuil, fifth last year, on his first run after wind surgery is respected, as is that of Storm Control, but the prices don't tempt. 

Storm Control, Captain Chaos and Achille all race prominently - no bad thing around here.

Last January Django Django beat Notachance just under five lengths off level weights on heavy ground at Newbury. The horse doesn't appear to have been in the same form this term; connections have chosen to try cheekpieces for the first time and Richard Johnson in the plate rather than Jonjo O'Neill Jr certainly catches the eye.   

Venetia Williams won this in 2013 with Rigadin De Beauchene, three pound claimer Robert Dunne doing the steering. Robbie rides Red Infantry for Ian Williams tomorrow, minus the three pound claim, of course. 

Red Infantry is a fragile sort who hasn't seen a track in over 400 days but he still has decent form in the book. Achille is another who hasn't been seen at the track for over 400 days; Charlie Deutsch prefers to ride this one for Venetia rather than Didero Vallis. 

Despite the big weight, Ballyoptic looks big at 20/1; he won the Charlie Hall in 2019, beating the likes of Elegant Escape, Aso and Definitly Red. To my mind he isn't always the slickest at his fences and those five flights down the Warwick back straight place a premium on good jumping. Stablemate The Hollow Ginge has failed to complete in two of his three starts this term but finished a respectable fourth in the Ladbrokes Chase at Newbury in November.

As I'm sure you can tell - if you've managed to make it this far - I'm struggling to come up with a value each-way selection. 

Ballyoptic was beaten 53 lengths behind Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy last time but that was run on good ground and underfoot conditions tomorrow will be more to his liking. 

I'm going to take a small each-way interest in Ballyoptic; at the time of writing William Hill offer 20/1 and pay five places. 

Warwick's Classic Chase 2020

If Unibet ambassador Nicky Henderson thinks he's had a week of it with Altior, he should spare a thought for Harry and Meghan. After a right royal bust-up, they've been told fast track discussions about their future are likely to involve, amongst others, Home Secretary Priti Patel - enough to make anyone want to give up on a Dry January.

I suspect Henderson and Her Majesty could both do with a bit of a restorative and they'll be keen on Keen On providing the necessary cheer in the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Warwick 2.25).

And what's this? Chancellor Sajid Javid has booked Wednesday 11th March - Champion Chase day - for his first budget speech. Whatever next? Announcing the winner of the Labour Party leadership contest on the same as the Grand National?

The Sussexes may have taken the brave decision to move towards financial independence but this season's blog tips are taking me in completely the opposite direction.

Fair play to Hughie Morrison whose jumpers are doing their best to stem the tide - Maridadi goes in the 3.55 at Wetherby tomorrow - but if this were a boxing match, the ref. would have stopped proceedings some time ago.

The feature on tomorrow's Warwick card is the Classic Chase (3.00) for which thirteen remain at the tine of writing (NRs Rocky's Treasure and previous winner Milansbar); the going is currently described as soft.

Trained by Lucinda Russell, One For Arthur won the 2017 renewal before going on to win the Grand National at Aintree; Big River (from the same stable) held a five-day entry but connections have opted to pass on the long journey south and instead go to Kelso on Sunday.

It's no surprise to see The Conditional head the market. On just his second run for David Bridgwater the gelding beat West Approach at Cheltenham (Crosspark and Captain Chaos pulled up) before finishing a fine second in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury behind De Rasher Counter. The handicapper has raised him five pounds for that effort; this will be his first try beyond three and a quarter miles.

I've never previously held any particular reservation about opposing Kimberlite Candy; however his latest effort, a fine second in first-time cheekpieces in the Becher Chase behind Walk In The Mill, certainly caught the eye. The cheekpieces remain in place - J P McManus will expect a bold bid.

Luca Morgan takes seven pounds off top weight Le Breuil who finished seventh in the Becher, some 17 lengths behind Kimbertlite Candy. Ben Pauling's yard wasn't firing on all cylinders at the time and I know his charge won the 2018 National Hunt Chase on soft ground over four miles at Cheltenham but I just feel Le Breuil is a better horse on better ground.

Both Petite Power and Bobo Mac arrive here in rude health; the latter's best chase form appears to be on a right-handed track.

Darlac's lack of chase experience is off-putting but I note that Impulsive Star won last year's renewal on just his sixth start over the larger obstacles (Crosspark third). Neil Mulholland's charge has been pulled up on every start since so connections swap cheekpieces for blinkers in the hope of sparking a revival.

Captain Chaos' second behind Takingrisks in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November reads well but other recent efforts look below par; trainer Dan Skelton has described his charge as 'an unlucky horse last year' but overall his profile is inconsistent.

Heads To The Stars has a nice racing weight and Hugh Nugent claims five but the jumping has caused problems in the past while Joueur Bresilien doesn't look guaranteed to stay.

Veteran Mysteree would be no forlorn hope if in the mood - this one was beaten a neck by Crosspark in the Eider last February and won at Kelso in October.

Writing in the Weekender Paul Kealy picks Kimberlite Candy indicating he had trouble finding one at a price. I know exactly what he means but I'm going to chance last year's third Crosspark who did me a big favour in the Eider and ran well in the Scottish National.

Caroline Bailey's charge has finished well beaten on both starts this term.

He was pulled up behind The Conditional at Cheltenham and then finished 74 lengths behind Lord Du Mesnil at Haydock just before Christmas. Perhaps the spectacles need some heavy-duty adjustment but he looked handy enough four out the last day before tiring; a mistake three from home ended any hope and he was eased when his chance had gone. The handicapper has dropped him two pounds for that effort and Jamie Moore is back in the plate.

Both Sky Bet and  Paddy Power offer 12/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places. Crosspark is the each-way suggestion.
 

The final fling for 2019

I've given far too much of my money to the bookmakers over the past decade but it looks like it'll be business as usual tomorrow when I make the short journey to Warwick for their New Year's Eve card.

Moderate fare on offer at the track and the same turn of phrase can readily be used about the abridged notes below.

Emmas Joy carries a penalty in the mares' novice hurdle (12.55). Dan Skelton has said of his charge:

"...she's definitely got a future in the game. I've got some big ambitions for her..."

On Racing Post ratings the Paul Nicholls trained Cill Anna has six pounds to find but the first time tongue-tie might help bring about improvement. Rose Of Aghaboe beat Wynn House and Meep Meep Mag here over two miles on her penultimate run; that form reads well but she was well beaten at Lingfield the last day and steps up in trip. Misaps is a big mare who ran well here two and a half weeks ago; she makes some appeal as an each-way play but Emma Lavelle has said Thoor Castle 'needs three miles and plenty of give underfoot'.

In the two mile handicap chase (1.30) top weight Comber Mill is better over hurdles than fences. Last year's winner Lightentertainment is getting on a bit now; he ran poorly last time out and is tried in blinkers. Favourite Seeanythingyoulike is still a maiden and looks a tad one-paced; I'll play Battleofthesomme whose profile looks more consistent than that of Agentleman.

In my book the favourite for the veterans' handicap chase (2.00) Troubled Soul doesn't stay the trip; on Racing Post ratings Uhlan Bute wins. Water Wagtail would prefer better ground; High Counsel gets the vote.

At Taunton last month Redmond finished three and a quarter lengths behind Adherence with Write It Down third, Seeanythingyoulike fourth (runs at 1.30) and Arquebusier fifth; that piece of form is worth looking at in relation to the two and half mile handicap chase at 3.10. Arquebusier  likes to front-run and landed last year's renewal but made a number of niggling errors at Taunton. Top Decision ran well last time out and rates an each-way play at around 9/1.

The concluding bumper looks a lot more intriguing than much of the preceding entertainment.Wilde About Oscar's chance has been highlighted by Ask A Honey Bee at Haydock earlier today. Scarpia, Hurrricane Mitch and Wireless Operator make their racecourse debuts for respected stables. Mint Condition is of interest on the back of his third here in October; the winner of that race, Soaring Glory, has gone in again since and finished second in an Ascot listed race behind Israel Champ. Israel Champ is currently priced up favourite for the Cheltenham bumper in March. The trouble is those bookmaker chaps aren't taking too many chances here, pricing up Jennie Candish's charge an 11/1 chance... 

Warwick's Classic Chase 2019

There will be lots of betting opportunities to lose your hard-earned between now and the Cheltenham Festival in March but that simple fact isn't going to stop large sections of the media from writing about Cheltenham, talking about Cheltenham, discussing Cheltenham entries, Cheltenham bankers, reporting from Cheltenham preview nights and generally trying to look up to eight weeks or so into the future.

Those in need of a timely fix may want to refer to Lydia Hislop's recently updated Road to Cheltenham series - the hurdlers and its counterpart the chasers.

For my part I've set myself the admittedly difficult but rather more modest task of trying to come up with one who'll at least give me a run for my money in tomorrow's Classic Chase at Warwick (3.00), my local track.

This doesn't have the look of a typical renewal with thirteen declared and the going described as good, good to soft in places; showers are forecast.

At the time of writing Callet Mad, Step Back and Duel At Dawn are all vying for favouritism.

Callet Mad seems to have been around for ages but he's the youngest in this field; since 2000 only two seven-year-olds have come home in front - Baron Windrush (2005) and Shotgun Paddy (2014).

Step Back has only five chase starts to his name and Duel At Dawn, well backed during the week, six but to my mind this race often rides quite rough and generally I tend to prefer a more experienced sort.

Rocky's Treasure and Ibis Du Rheu held five day entries for this and the Hampton Novices' Chase (1.50). Connections of the former have taken the easier option while Ibis Du Rheu's jumping appeared to suffer over the final three fences when well beaten behind The Worlds End at Cheltenham last month.

Jumping is always at a premium at Warwick, particularly down the back straight where the five flights come pretty quickly one after another.

Impulsive Star was fourth in the four miler at Cheltenham last March but he looked ring-rusty on his seasonal debut at Plumpton behind Ok Corral (goes in the Hampton at 1.50); he'll certainly need to be more fluent over the obstacles here. Robert Waley-Cohen has indicated son Sam may not be able to make full use of his three pound claim.

Fourth looked the best Carole's Destrier could hope for jumping the last at Newbury when last seen but Neil Mulholland's charge came with a late rattle to pinch the spoils. A three pound penalty looks manageable and the ground will suit; jockey Robbie Dunne won the 2013 renewal aboard Rigadin De Beauchene.

I've concentrated efforts on the two who can boast previous course winning form - last year's winner Milansbar and Cogry who finished 11 lengths adrift in second that day. 12 months on winning jock Bryony Frost goes to Kempton to ride for Paul Nicholls; Jack Andrews can't do the weight so this year the ride on Milansbar goes to Jack's sister Gina who claims three.

Milansbar looks weighted to confirm last year's placings with Cogry; the latter has gone up three pounds after defeating Singlefarmpayment a head at Cheltenham. That said, Milansbar is now twelve years old and would probably prefer more cut underfoot.

Of the remainder Un Temps Pour Tout has his second run after wind surgery; since 1974 Hey Big Spender (2012) is the only horse to have carried top weight to victory. Of Colin Tizzard's pair Sizing Codelco faces a stiff task after 252 days off the track while Ultragold appeared to stay on his first try beyond three miles one the last day and just may be overpriced at 22/1 - Richard Johnson rides.

Crosspark was fourth in last year's race beaten some 28 lengths (Gina Andrews up) while Chase The Spud has been out of sorts of late.

On the book Milansbar is weighted to finish ahead of Cogry but I'm hoping quicker ground will help the Twiston-Davies inmate. Cogry (7/1 Ladbrokes one fifth the odds four places) is the each-way suggestion.

Warwick whims

Earlier this week, unusually, the stentorian Matt Chapman found himself dancing on rather thin ice while in a YouGov poll published on Wednesday, 52% of those questioned rated horse racing either quite or very boring - have these people never placed a bet?

Tomorrow's meeting at Warwick - my local track - is the biggest of the year but there's a certain anti-climax in the air with some fancied runners either opting to race at Kempton or to stay at home in their boxes on account of the ground.

The official going is now described as soft; it has been heavy, is likely to be holding and will prove very hard work.

The Betfred Classic Chase (3.35) is the highlight; the weights have risen some fourteen pounds with Missed Approach (139) now at the top of the handicap.

Three in the field came to grief in last week's Welsh National at Chepstow: Emperor's Choice fell at the first; On The Road unseated Mitchell Bastyan at the fourth; and Milansbar unseated Trevor Whelan at the twelfth.

Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles two; Cogry is often let down by his jumping while Ballycross sports first time cheekpieces but has yet to win a chase.

Kerry Lee saddles three and appears to hold a stronger hand with Krackatoa King, Goodtoknow and Russe Blanc.

Richard Patrick gave Alfie Spinner a superb ride in the Welsh National last week; his five pound claim will come in handy here aboard Krackatoa King who boasts a decent record since moving to the yard.

Goodtoknow has been out of sorts since winning at Hereford last February but he ran a stormer in this last year at odds of 25/1, beaten six lengths into second by subsequent Grand National winner One For Arthur (Russe Blanc ninth, with Emperor's Choice, Milansbar and Ballycross all pulled up).

Despite the price Russe Blanc (127) isn't readily written off, having won the 2016 running off exactly the same handicap mark; Charlie Poste was in the plate that day and he rides again tomorrow.

Cresswell Breeze has run well this season, I've noted money for the Ian Williams trained Indian Castle in a first-time visor but On The Road and Crosspark have never won a chase over three miles or further.

I'm drawn to the Kerry Lee trio and Krackatoa King gets the each-way vote; he's currently quoted a 9/1 chance - Hills and Coral are advertising one fifth the odds four places.

I usually like to take an interest in the Leamington Hurdle (won by subsequent Neptune winner Willoughby Court last year) but to my mind the layers have it about right.

Evan Williams names Chooseyourweapon as his pick in this week's Weekender Stable Tour but qualifies it with 'I'm not getting carried away at this early stage of his career'.

Paisley Park did me a favour at Hereford just before Christmas, turning over 1/4 chance Vision Des Flos, but the favourite fluffed his lines at the last - it ranks as the one piece of luck I've had in the past eight weeks.

The Hampton Novices' Chase (1.50) has cut up with just five left in. Duel At Dawn beat Flintham 16 lengths at Exeter before finishing second to Sizing Tennessee at Cheltenham. I haven't completely given up on Big River who is the one to beat on official ratings but was pulled up with an irregular heartbeat at Haydock last time.

Finally, a historical note on which to finish - a (rather out-of-focus) picture of a noticeboard outside the Fox & Vivian public house in Leamington Spa, detailing the first course of the Leamington steeplechases in 1834...

    

Warwick Classic Chase day 2017

With the course covered since Wednesday and temperatures tonight forecast to dip no lower than freezing, prospects for tomorrow's Betfred Classic Chase day, the biggest meeting of the year at my local track Warwick. look good.

Twenty are set to contest the featured Classic Chase at 3.35 run over a distance of three miles five furlongs; the current going is officially described as soft, heavy in places.

Three former winners line-up - Rigadin De Beauchene (2013); Shotgun Paddy (2014) and Russe Blanc (2016).

Amongst those behind Russe Blanc last year were Midnight Prayer (second), Houblon Des Obeaux (fourth), and Vivaldi Collonges (fifth) with both Rigadin De Beauchene and Sego Success falling; just five of the fourteen starters completed.

Tomorrow's renewal is typically competitive. Ballycross is at or near the top of most lists; last time out in receipt of eight pounds he was beaten just under six lengths by Pobbles Bay who runs in the 1.50.

Rated 139 Shotgun Paddy appears to have been given every chance having won off a mark of 145 in 2014 and then finishing third off 147 the following year.

Last month Vieux Lion Rouge pipped Highland Lodge in heart-breaking fashion in the Becher Chase at Aintree - the form is represented here by One For Arthur (fifth), Bob Ford (seventh) and Midnight Prayer (ninth).

One For Arthur, beaten under three lengths that day, travels down from Scotland and connections fit a tongue-tie for the first time; the gelding's sound jumping should serve him well at this track.

Kim Bailey saddles Knockanrawley who hasn't seen a racecourse for 427 days. The handler states:

"He's as fit as I can get him at home, but I'm afraid he's still as big as a house. He looks like a double decker bus!"

Occasionally I've thought there might be a race like this in Bob Ford. His trainer is presently in good form but to date all his wins have come at either Ffos Las or Chepstow; at the weights he will struggle to reverse Becher Chase form with One For Arthur.

Down the years I've preferred experience in this race; on the back of Alan King's notes in the Weekender (horse in fine fettle, likes Warwick) Midnight Prayer is no more than a tentative each-way suggestion. He's priced up 22/1 in places.

Peregrine Run is the suggestion for the Leamington (3.00) on the back of his defeat of Wholestone last time. Gayebury is short enough but finished third behind Ballyandy in a Newbury bumper last February.

Finally there are some big weights in the opening novices' handicap hurdle at 12.40.

Robin Dickin's Wildmoor Boy was kept busy over the summer months and landed a Class 3 event at Cheltenham's Open meeting. The horse is talented but a bit of a worrier who needs a lot of walking; the last day at Leicester the trainer reported the horse had left his race somewhere on the M69 - readers may recall Restless Harry from the same yard who suffered with similar issues.

Wildmoor Boy runs at his local track tomorrow so the travelling shouldn't be a problem - the trouble is the ground's far from ideal... That's racing.

Brief notes at New Year

Following today's abandonment at Haydock, Nicky Henderson adds some spice to a run-of-the-mill card at Warwick on New Year's Eve by declaring Buveur D'Air in the adroitly-named Local Parking Security Novices' Chase (1.00).

On the same card trainer Robin Dickin has a couple of interesting runners at his local track.

Routine Procedure looks the pick of his trio in the opener; this one is on the comeback trail after missing eighteen months or so through injury.

Beaten over 17 lengths by Mrs Burbidge in a similar event at Uttoxeter last time, he was in with a shout before fading after the last eventually finishing fifth. The winner has since been beaten into third by Sober Sailor at Fontwell but both Miss Mash (third) and Dalkadam (fourth) have recorded subsequent victories so the form reads well enough (the second, Flobury, goes in tomorrow's 12.05 at Uttoxeter). Connections have opted to fit a visor for the first time so I'd be hopeful of some improvement and at around 10/1 he rates an each-way chance.

Dontminddboys, a big striking grey, runs in the handicap chase at 1.35 and is another on the comeback trail after injury.

The last day he looked outpaced half a mile from home in a Towcester novices' handicap chase before staying on stoutly to claim second without ever threatening the winner. The step up to three miles should suit but this race looks more competitive so I'll maintain a watching brief - in that same Towcester chase stablemate Oneida Tribe raced prominently and was unlucky to be brought down by Paddocks Lounge at the twelfth on his first run for the yard.

On New Year's Day all eyes will be on ITV's inaugural broadcast from Cheltenham. Rather bizarrely, the 2017 ITV Sport Racing Diary that Santa brought me last week doesn't record all the meetings ITV will actually cover during the year.

Dickin has declared Thomas Crapper in the BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 2.00).

Wearing a tongue-tie for the first time, Thomas Crapper put up a personal best performance on ground softer than ideal to finish sixth behind Taquin Du Seuil in the BetVictor Gold Cup seven weeks ago.

He will meet second Village Vic four pounds better off for fourteen lengths. With Charlie Poste booked to ride at ten stone, I'll look to strike an each-way wager at around 16/1 or bigger.

Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all readers a very happy and prosperous new year.

From Warwick to Wetherby

The best card of the year at Warwick, my local track, is subject to an 8.00 am inspection tomorrow; frost covers have been deployed and course officials are confident the meeting will go ahead.

As I won't be racing tomorrow I confess haven't done much prep work.

The Classic Chase (3.35) looks as open as ever with the field containing a number of runners who like to race prominently.

The Leamington Hurdle (3.00) is intriguing. Willie Mullins sends over two to challenge course and distance winner Born Survivor. The Weekender reports Dan Skelton's charge 'the best novice hurdler in the yard' so it's no surprise to see this locally-trained gelding head the market.

Skelton, who can boast a strike-rate of over 20% this season, plundered the spoils last year with Three Musketeers and is clearly expected to repeat the trick this year.

Of the Mullins pair, slight preference would be for Open Eagle but seven-year olds don't have a good record in this race and both Irish runners have to concede three pounds to the favourite on heavy ground.

While browsing the entries I was struck by the fact that Aidan Coleman has decided to ride at Wetherby tomorrow.

Venetia Williams has five runners at Warwick - Polo (12.40), Vivaccio (1.15), Rigadin De Beauchene (3.35 - regularly ridden by Robbie Dunne), Houblon Des Obeaux (3.35) and Opera Rock (4.05) - but sends just two up north to Wetherby - Gardefort (2.05) and Azert De Coeur (3,15).

Both are of interest.

Gardefort was third in the same race last year but remains unexposed racing off a mark three pounds lower while Azert De Coeur's fourth behind Cloonacool at Ludlow last time reads well enough in this lower grade event.

Two selections:
Gardefort (9/2) 2.05 Wetherby;
Azert De Coeur (5/1) 3.15 Wetherby. 

Kempton's Tolworth Hurdle

Seven declared for tomorrow's re-arranged Tolworth at Kempton with layers marking up The Liquidator as favourite; trainer David Pipe is on record saying Sandown would probably have suited his charge better than this sharp track.

Willie Mullins appears to have a surfeit of riches in the novice hurdle department - the general feeling is Upazo wouldn't necessarily be the best in the yard but they'll find out more tomorrow. Having said that, five of the seven have been allocated an official handicap rating and Walsh's mount has six pounds in hand over his nearest rival.

Josses Hill would be the pick of the Henderson pair while Prince Siegfried was in the process of running a big race the last day when taking an horrendous looking fall at the final flight in Ascot's Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle - Irving collected the spoils that day and was amongst the five-day declarations for this but connections have decided not to run. Without that heavy fall, Prince Siegfried was a player in my book but it's a major worry and his trainer's comment 'He's a confidence horse' after the gelding's victory at Huntingdon in November doesn't inspire confidence now.

I can't have Creepy (also declared at Warwick 3.00) after a desperately poor show of hurdling in the Challow but Garde La Victoire is of interest. He lost his unbeaten record when pipped a neck by Ballyalton at Cheltenham last time but that doesn't tell the whole story as the form book reports the gelding 'stood at start for 20 seconds before getting going' that day. Perhaps Philip Hobbs' charge isn't entirely straight-forward.

In my book the value this evening is Upazo (7/2 Coral, Bet Victor) and Garde La Victoire (6/1 Boylesports). I'll chance Garde La Victoire - with victories at Aintree and Warwick to his name already, this track should suit.

On RP ratings Killala Quay is the top-rated animal in Warwick's Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) so the 5/1 generally available about Charlie Longsdon's charge looks a fair price - Willie Mullins saddles Rathvinden (as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes) while Deputy Dan (4/1) has also come in for support.

Brief notes from the course after Warwick's Classic Chase meet

Brief notes from Warwick's Classic Chase day meeting yesterday...

I've attended this particular meet several times over the years; whilst I was pleasantly surprised at the lack of crowds in the betting ring, around the paddock and in the bars, I'm guessing the track's management will view the attendance figures with some disappointment.

In the opener Timmy Murphy looked slightly unlucky not to win on his first ride back from injury when top weight Thunder Sheik (12/1) couldn't match Flaming Charmer (14/1) for toe after the last. I stood opposite the trainer and owners as the runner-up was unsaddled - Murphy was pretty animated and took what appeared an unusually long time to debrief connections. The first-time tongue-tie worn here appears to have helped and the hint was this bay is likely to appreciate further.

I didn't see Eastlake in the paddock beforehand but colleagues reported the gelding appeared sore behind. In the event he ran well but Rody quickly put the race to bed between the final two flights.

No sooner was Grand National winner Neptune Collonges brought into the paddock to parade before the third than he was spooked. The grey was clearly on good terms with himself - two handlers walked him around for a while after as he calmed down; several racegoers took the opportunity to take a picture. In the race itself 14/1 chance Tour Des Champs, running in the colours of Mr H R Mould (made famous by 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree), looked ready to mount a strong challenge to the principals when coming to grief two from home. Many will have been disappointed with Highland Lodge (third) but punters are forgiving beings - in the unsaddling enclosure I saw somebody pass two packets of polos to the lad as he walked the favourite around.

I wasn't inclined to play in the 2.25 with 18 runners and The Package priced up at around 3/1. The night before I had picked out Ely Brown (honest) but the Guinness called and I went and bought a round of drinks instead. We watched the action from a verandah outside the bar, standing just behind Countryfile presenter John Craven. Much to my dismay Ely Brown (12/1) won well but it appeared Mr Craven had been somewhat less reticent than my good self in striking a wager as the smiles and raised eyebrows came thick and fast after Ely passed the post in front. Displaying signs of excellent breeding, as one would expect, Mr Craven seemed in no particular rush to collect his winnings.

In the paddock The New One looked very strong behind but didn't catch the eye; he certainly caught the eye on the track.

Three pound claimer Robbie Dunne did his career prospects no harm whatsoever winning the feature on Rigadin De Beuachene. Something clearly upset the winner after the race - on a couple of occasions he looked ready to kick out - and the stable girl wisely took him away, missing the opportunity to collect her silver salver. Venetia Williams, a trainer in fine form as well as a lady who knows how to wear a hat, proved an able substitute.

The final word has to go to a bookmaker - the following sign was noted at Ka Be Ge's pitch:

"Remember, a bad day at the races is always better than a good day at work."

Warwick's Classic Chase day 2013

Last year Warwick racecourse lost a third of its fixtures due to heavy rain while the local district council rejected a plan to build a 100 bedroom hotel on site.

The question now being asked in some quarters is 'Can Warwick keep its racecourse?'

Tomorrow's meeting is the track's biggest jumps card of the year. I intend to pop along for old times' sake - you never know, future meetings could just become vulnerable...

The highlight is the Classic Chase run over three miles five furlongs - 13 face the starter at 3.35. Charlie Longsdon's Pete The Feat has won five on the bounce this season and bids to make it six off a mark of 134, nine pounds higher than when he made all to win the Mandarin Chase at Newbury over Christmas; this evening layers offer 4/1. The locally-trained Restless Harry is bound to be popular and likely to race from the front but in my opinion he's better over the smaller obstacles (one win from four chase starts); the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and he may struggle with the jumping, a comment that could also apply to Bradley although his neck second to Monbeg Dude on his penultimate run reads well after that one won the Welsh National last weekend.

My tip for last week's Welsh National, Universal Soldier, ran like a drain - he reappears here seven days later but is hard to fancy while Rigadin De Beauchene is short enough in the market for a horse that didn't appear to stay three and a quarter miles at Fontwell in March.

Hey Big Spender won last year's renewal with 11 stones 12 off a mark of 156 - tomorrow's top weight Auroras Encore is rated 142 with all the runners set to carry their long handicap weight.

Two interest me - last year's fourth Major Malarkey and the bottom one Flying Award. Twiston-Davies won this in 2005 with Baron Windrush and his charge made a pleasing seasonal debut a neck behind Lively Baron in the London National at Sandown so I'll take an each-way interest in 10/1 chance Major Malarkey.

In the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) all eyes with be The New One. On course I'll try to get him beaten with Dursey Sound who has one pound to find on official ratings but I wouldn't be confident. In the last six renewals the favourite has obliged on four occasions.

Highland Lodge disappointed in the Leamington Hurdle at the track last year so Rocky Creek is marginally prefered in the novice chase. Having said that, I'm often wary of betting Paul Nicholls' runners in January as in the past the yard has tended to give the majority of their horses a flu jab at the beginning of the month.

I had to look twice to make sure the Pertemps Hurdle (2.25) wasn't some kind of Grand National trial with West End Rocker, Sunnyhillboy and The Package declared. The two mile handicap chase for the Edward Courage Cup (1.15) looks trappy but I'm going to chance George Nympton who won over course and distance last time out.

Down came the rain

A wet week at the races saw flag starts at Chester, Lingfield's classic trials moved to the all-weather and Saturday's Flat meeting at Warwick replaced with hurdle races (and a concert by The Undertones).

Staff at Warwick could be forgiven for thinking that it never rains but it pours.The course's application to build a 100-bed hotel was refused plannning permission by the local district council, much to the delight of local residents...  According to the Jockey Club, which owns and operates Warwick, the future of the course is now under threat yet earlier in the week the same Jockey Club reported record turnover, record crowds and record prize money contributions.

One who has been sweating up a little this 'shareholder spring' is William Hill CEO Ralph Topping. At the company's AGM on Tuesday 49.9% of shareholders voted against the executive pay deal; Mr Topping landed the spoils, a £1.2 million 'retention bonus', by a nose. Predicatably, opponents are demanding a stewards' inquiry.

One not complaining about the raining is Donald McCain; Ile De Re beat Overturn to give the trainer a 1-2 in Wednesday's Chester Cup. The Tote Exacta paid £139.00 but nobody on course will have collected as there are now no Tote pool betting facilities available at the track. 'Chesterbet' is the replacement offering but TV coverage gave more than a hint that the new service didn't offer the best of value. Channel Four's John Francome looked in a tight spot during Thursday's transmission: he was clearly disappointed with the return on a winning wager but intimated that the vast majority of punters at the track want to do two things - bet on a horse and watch it run. He went on to assert that they're not that bothered whether they get 4/1 or 6/1. Well, I think that one's open to some discussion...  Of course, none of this was a bother to Donald McCain who followed up his Chester Cup triumph by landing the Swinton at Haydock on Saturday with Red Merlin.

Finally, at a windswept Carlisle station last week, I absent-mindedly picked up a leaflet entitled 'Back A Winner - take the train and go racing for less!' The offer, from First TransPennine Express and Northern Rail, gives a discount of £2 off a £5 toteplacepot bet and up to £4 off entry to selected northern racecourses. A number of conditions need to be satisfied to claim your discount vouchers so, if you're interested, make sure your lawyer has a free five minutes before checking out the details... ;)

Saturday's Warwick card

Warwick is a few short miles down the road from here but I haven't attended a meeting there for well over ten years; I find the hill in the middle of the course particularly disconcerting. However, I've had my leave form signed off so tomorrow I'll put the concerns to one side for the Classic Chase meeting, the course's best jumps card of the year. The going is described as good to soft with soft places on the hurdles course - most people think it will ride 'dead' as there has been very little rain during the week. This is my thinking at the moment...

12.50 Novices' Handicap Hurdle. No selection.

1.25 3 mile Novices' Chase. Four of the seven have an official rating and of those Frascati Park, priced up favourite this evening, is best served by race conditions. I'm tempted to chance Emma Lavelle's unexposed gelding Court Victory. In a recent Stable Tour article the trainer described her charge as a giant, measuring 17.3hh. This sharpish track may not be ideal and he may need a bit more cut but the trip should suit and the accurate jumping he displayed last time at Uttoxeter should serve him well down the back straight where the fences come thick and fast. In the past Golden Chieftain has been seen to have problems in the jumping department. Only one favourite has obliged in the past six renewals, with either the second or third favourite taking the spoils on the other five occasions.

2.00 2 mile Handicap Chase. Previous course and distance winner Marodima made all to win over two and a half miles at Fontwell on Thursday and is priced up favourite on the back of that. A talented individual who was something of a tearaway in his younger days, he's more settled now but may struggle to build up a lead against these. Educated Evans makes more appeal than Roi De Rose who has tended to race over further and has blinkers fitted for the first time. I'd forgive Tara Royal his last effort - 10/1 could look big after the event.

2.30 3 mile one furlong handicap hurdle. Looks incredibly competitive. Two each-way chances against the field - Barwell Bridge (9/1) ran well on his seasonal debut at Wincanton 19 days ago while Venetia Williams' runners are currently in exceptional form and Aachen (20/1) catches my eye. Tenth in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, he's never really delivered to his potential but connections try cheek pieces for the first time; he travelled well for a long way at Bangor the last time before fading badly.

3.05 Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f). The favourite has taken five of the last six renewals and Emma Lavelle appears particularly bullish about the chances of her well-regarded gelding Highand Lodge (owned by the marvellously-named syndicate 'The Unusual Suspects'). There are some interesting sorts in this, including Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood; on balance I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite.

3.40 Classic Chase (3m 5f). Six of the 14 runners are set to carry more than their long handicap weight. In the past those who have run in the Welsh National have struggled here - this year Bench Warrent finished fifth, Hey Big Spender fell and Blazing Bailey was pulled up. I quietly fancied Neptune Equester at Wetherby last time but he lost touch mid-race before staying on again in the Rowland Meyrick. The trainer put that down to a slow pace so I'm going to stay with Neptune Equester who looks nicely weighted and has Aidan Coleman in the saddle.

4.00 Bumper. No selection.

New Year's Day 2012

Plum Pudding (18/1) may have been a topical winner of today's 2.20 at Warwick but he must rank as the luckiest winner of the year as first fence faller Tafika was still loose some six minutes after his tumble and hampered leading horse and 5/1 favourite Glens Boy in the shadow of the post to gift the race to the outsider. It certainly didn't make for the best of viewing, being described as 'carnage' by one commentator.

With that occurence in mind, here are some tentative suggestions for New Year's Day 2012 in this 800th blog post...

Cheltenham 1.05: Invictus (11/4 Ladbrokes) appeals as a play against likely favourtie Sonofvic. Sonofvic didn't look the most fluent of jumpers when going down to Grand Crus at Newbury on his first try over the larger obstacles.

Musselburgh 1.15: Bourne has to give 15 pounds to Eagle Rock but could offer value.

Musselburgh 2.25: I'm a fan of Marsh Warbler (fifth in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot last time) but I'm not convinced the going or this track will see him to best advantage. Desert Cry, part-owned by Everton manager David Moyes, looked a very tricky ride in that same Ascot race.

Exeter 12.40: Theatrical Star has been quite highly tried and is an each-way wager if the tissue price of 12/1 becomes available on the day.

Exeter 2.55: I'd chance Penny Max against Golden Chieftain.

Exeter 4.00: Two to monitor in the bumper - Philip Hobbs' Billesley Road and Xaarcet, described in the autumn by Colin Tizzard as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season'.

Let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.

A sad weekend for racing

There were traumatic scenes at Newbury yesterday as two horses, Fenix Two and Marching Song, collapsed and died in the parade ring before the opening race. The horses appear to have been electrocuted - the suspicion is an underground cable may have been disturbed during recent maintenance work; this evening The Sporting Life reports a section of cable has been removed from the racecourse paddock area. Two other horses, Kid Cassidy and The Merry Giant, were also affected; Kid Cassidy was withdrawn at the start while The Merry Giant was allowed to take his chance in the opener but was reported 'badly traumatised' after the race. Once the seriousness of the incident became apparent, the remainder of the card was rightly abandoned, with the racecourse offering racegoers a full money refund. The BHA intend to make a further statement tomorrow.

In what has turned out to be a disastrous weekend for horse-racing, both Money Trix and Glencove Marina suffered fatal injuries in the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown while at Warwick Colin Tizzard's Kilmurry had to be put down following an injury sustained at the penultimate flight in the Kingmaker.

Newbury also managed to make the headlines in The Times' business section on Saturday - Guiness Peat Group, which owns a 29.9% stake in the racecourse, is looking to sell off its investment portfolio. Ever fancied a share in a racecourse?

With the Cheltenham Festival little over a month away, I need to do some homework on a few potential longshots. Here's an initial list that needs plenty of work but might prove a useful starting point...

Mille Chief - 14/1 Champion Hurdle (totesport). Likely to run in the Kingwell at Wincanton.

Cue Card - 33/1 Champion Hurdle (Stan James). Colin Tizzard writing in the Weekender says a decision will be taken on Cue Card's Festival target by the weekend.

Knockara Beau - 16/1 Pertemps Final. Looks to have benifitted from return to hurdling. Fifth in Ballymore / Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet.

The Giant Bolster - 25/1 RSA Chase. Not the quickest but will be staying on when others have cried enough - a blog favourite.

Tarablaze - 25/1 RSA Chase. Well backed in the past few days.

Captain Cee Bee - 12/1 Champion Chase (totesport). McCoy rated this one his best chance of a winner at last year's Festival but the horse broke a blood vessel in the Arkle. Went on to win Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown.

What A Friend - 40/1 Gold Cup (Coral). Looks overpriced on Aintree Bowl victory last April.

China Rock - 66/1 Gold Cup. Not certain to line up and several question marks over his stamina - will he come up hill? Probably not, but the price is big and he's likely to appreciate good ground.

Finally, finishing on a much-needed lighter note, the Daily Mail recently reported Welsh Cob Basil the stallion likes to pop down to his local, The Meynell Ingram Arms in Burton, Staffordshire, for a pint of Marston's Pedigree. If you're asking, Basil, mine's a Guinness...

Quick thoughts on Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown

Punchestowns took the Graduation Chase at Kempton earlier today and in the process helped Nicky Henderson reach 2,000 career wins but for much of the trip the 4/6 favourite looked in trouble behind the front-running Pasco. However the grey slowed markedly up the home straight thereby allowing Barry Geraghty to galvanise his mount to an improbable eleven length victory. Pasco finished distressed in second; after the race trainer Paul Nicholls sent out a tweet indicating the grey had choked and would be sent for a breathing operation in due course.

Newbury hosts a top class card tomorrow, the totesport Trophy Hurdle at 3.35 the big betting race of the day. With twenty three set to face the starter, several layers bet each-way a quarter the odds five places including sponsors totesport, Sky Bet and Paddy Power. Since 1980 seven winners have carried more than 11 stones - Grey Salute (1989); Deep Sensation (1990); Make A Stand (1997); Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000); Copeland (2002) and Essex (2005). In that period no horse has won carrying more than 11-7, an ominous-looking stat for a number of fancied chances near the top of the handicap. David Pipe's pair, Ronaldo Des Mottes and Notus De La Tour, caught my eye. The former was second in this last year but has an additional twelve pounds on his back this time while Notus De LaTour has had this as his main target for the season. This evening Notus is 16/1 with Coral while Ronaldo is 22/1 with bet365 who bet five places. In an impossible race, I'm going to have an each-way dabble on Evan Williams' Tarkari who had a warm-up at Ffos Las last week. Formerly with Willie Mullins, Tarkari is generally available at 25/1, although I note stable jockey Paul Moloney has opted to ride Tiger O'Toole...

Six in the Game Spirit but it looks trappy now pre-race favourite Woolcombe Folly has been withdrawn following a bad scope. I'll side with French Opera provided the rain stays away.

The Aon looks between Riverside Theatre, part-owned by actor James Nesbitt and What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The Manchester United manager may be known for winning but his horse faces a stiff task here conceding four pounds to an opponent officially rated nine pounds higher. Riverside Theatre hasn't won at this trip but his performance behind Long Run in the King George appears to have dispelled any lingering fears...

Keeping up the footballing connection, Harry Redknapp owns Bygones In Brid who takes his chance in the bumper. Trainer Alan King put this one up as one to monitor a few weeks ago but since then the gelding missed an intended engagement at Wincanton as connections weren't totally happy. He runs here but is probably best watched on this occasion (a comment that could apply to Harry's team, Tottenham Hotspur, perhaps?)

Only three in the 4.05 but I'd be tempted to take a chance on Philip Hobbs' Tarablaze following reports the gelding was backed earlier today for the RSA Chase at the Festival next month. In a RP stable tour article published last October the handler said '... he's certainly one we are very much looking forward to.' Coral are currently best-priced 33/1 about Tarablaze for the Cheltenham showpiece.

At Warwick four go in the Kingmaker where current Arkle favourite Finian's Rainbow will be expected to collect the spoils. Writing in the Weekender handler Colin Tizzard is bullish enough about Kilmurry. This one gave Ghizao eight pounds and an eleven length beating at Cheltenham in October but the form was dramatically reversed four weeks later. Tizzard tells us to ignore that defeat as the horse returned with a problem. He's been off since and is likely to need this, especially with the stable struggling to emerge from a quiet spell, but he's currently 33/1 for the Arkle (William Hill) which makes some appeal each-way.

At Leopardstown Quel Espirt is a play against enigmatic favourite Mikael D'haguenet in the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase while in the Hennessy totesport's 9/1 about joint top-rated China Rock looks worth an each-way interest.