Friday, March 31, 2017

Suasive suggestions for Ascot's Sunday card?

Somebody I know is going to Ascot on Sunday and, strange as it may seem, they've asked me to mark their card.

It does happen very, very occasionally.

I can't deny that initial satisfaction, that warm, comforting glow that runs through the veins when contact is made and the request proposed but any sense of self-indulgent pride is quickly swept away when I recall that I've never actually received a repeat request - from any friend, acquaintance or racegoer. For some peculiar reason, it always seems that once is more than enough.

Bearing all that in mind, here's where I am with Ascot's final jumps card of the season; the official going is currently described as good.

2.00 ROA/Racing Post Owners Jackpot Maiden Hurdle
Venetia Williams' Burrows Park brings some respectable-looking form to the table, having been beaten a length by River Frost at Plumpton in November and then finishing third behind Chalonnial at Bangor just before Christmas; the former was ninth in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham a fortnight ago while the latter ran third behind Finian's Oscar in the Tolworth at Sandown. Burrows didn't jump well the last day at Fontwell and was pulled up but has been given time to recover; on his racecourse debut he won on good ground in France over ten and a half furlongs.

2.30 Mitie Events & Leisure Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Weekender readers, myself included, were waiting for Alan King's Dino Velvet, eighth of 22 in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, to show up for this but he's missing (as was stablemate Hidden Cargo in the opener) so Fred Winter form is represented by Nicky Henderson's pair Domperignon Du Lys (eleventh) and Percy Street (sixth) along with the Paul Nicholls trained Dolos (thirteenth).

Since Cheltenham the handicapper has left the Henderson pair alone but has dropped Dolos two pounds and jock Stan Sheppard can claim another five. Of the others So Celebre and Gregarious are respected; the former appeared to have improved at Huntingdon last time and there could be more to come while the latter beat Deauville Crystal who has subsequently won twice.

On RPRs this contest is between the top two. Coming to two out Dolos was third in the Fred Winter but patently failed to come up the hill. You'd imagine the stiff finish at Ascot could pose a similar problem but the trip here is a full furlong shorter than at Cheltenham and the vibes for the Nicholls horse were strong before the Festival. With the weight concessions, Dolos is preferred.

3.05 Geotech Soil Stabilisation Novices' Chase
There looks to be plenty of pace here with Casse Tete, Present Man and Value At Risk (sporting first time cheekpieces) all keen to get on with it. Dark Flame was disappointing last time but has good form behind Poker School around here while Philip Hobbs wanted to get Brother Tedd in the novice handicap chase on the first day at Cheltenham as the horse's chase rating is some 16lbs lower than his hurdle rating... In which case all he has to do is jump round to win? Ascot's fences are stiff enough - on balance I prefer previous course and distance winner Present Man.

3.40 Ascot United FC Novices' Handicap Chase
A few inter-linked form lines here... Champagne At Tara was beaten a neck by Red Devil Star over course and distance in December and has since beaten Un Prophete a head at Leicester. Red Devil Star was beaten over eight lengths by Imperial Presence a week ago while Clic Work didn't jump well at Kempton last time out. On good ground San Benedeto may just be good enough to give the weight away.

4.15 grandnational2017.com Veterans' Handicap Chase
Further work required but I like No Duffer who will appreciate better ground and has won going right-handed at both Perth and Sandown.

4.50 Iron Stand Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
It's good to see Puffin Billy return to action after 711 days on the sidelines. Le Reve hasn't had quite as long away from the track but may need the run while Billy No Name ran a bit of stinker carrying my money last time out. Ultimately Dell' Arca has been disappointing considering he won the 2013 Greatwood Hurdle and Westerndorf didn't appear to stay this trip. Back in November Ben Pauling told Weekender readers he thought Expedite was 'very well handicapped' with a rating of 114. Expedite has since had a couple of mishaps over the larger obstacles but his latest effort - fourth over hurdles off a mark of 125, beaten six lengths by River Frost (ninth in the Coral Cup) - reads well. He's a tentative selection in an open event.

Finally a word for one of my favourite horses, Reve De Sivola, who tragically collapsed and died at Kelso last week. The horse did me (and this blog) a few favours over the years, particularly in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, winning three consecutive renewals between 2012 and 2014.

Fittingly, Ascot will name this year's renewal the JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle.

Friday, March 24, 2017

A Newbury 'mare?

It's a mere week since Sizing John won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham but in some ways it seems like half a lifetime ago. Ever since, the world and his wife has been telling anyone who'll listen which ones to look out for next time following any number of unfortunate incidents in running (my two, Dino Velvet and Ex Patriot, offer nothing in the way of originality).

And with the £1 million Grand National just a fortnight away, official handicapper Phil Smith couldn't resist joining in the fun with a list of horses he now considers "well in" for the Aintree showpiece: More Of That (two pounds, after Gold Cup sixth); Grimthorpe winner Definitely Red (ten pounds); Vieux Lion Rouge (six pounds); Cause Of Causes (five pounds, after winning the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase - handler Gordon Elliott followed a similar path with 2007 winner Silver Birch) and Just A Par (four pounds).

Tomorrow's cards are just so-so; I've spent that much time looking at the Mares' Novices' Hurdle Finale (Newbury 3.00) where seventeen are set to face the starter I've ended up confusing myself... I've found this race (along with most others, I should add) rather tricky to predict in the past but the stats show the favourite has obliged on four occasions in the last ten years while in the same timeframe no mare has carried more than 11-5 to victory.

Let's Dance won the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at the Festival last week with Dusky Legend (20/1) third, Verdana Blue (25/1) fourth and La Bague Au Roi (10/1) seventh; the three named have form lines with a couple of tomorrow's runners.

La Bague Au Roi beat Cajun Fiddle at Uttoxeter and then, in receipt of three pounds beat Dusky Legend three and a quarter lengths with Copper Kay a further two and threequarter lengths adrift in third over two miles here in November. Earlier that month Dusky Legend had beaten Copper Kay and Snow Leopardess at the track with Same Circus some thirty four lengths away in seventh. Snow Leopardess went on to confirm the form with Same Circus over two miles three and a half furlongs at Doncaster.

Copper Kay idled in front on her penultimate start at Warwick and was caught in the shadow of the post; Philip Hobbs has his team in cracking form at present. I suspect Snow Leopardess may have more to give but of the pair I marginally prefer Copper Kay, joint top on RPR ratings with Pearl Royale.

Ruby Yates' second behind Verdana Blue over two miles at Hereford in January reads well as does Gran Turina's Ludlow second behind River Wylde who subsequently ran very well in the Supreme, beaten ten and a half lengths into third by Labaik. Both mares look less exposed and more open to improvement than a number in the field.

You can't help but feel Alan King must have a very good idea where he is with Tara View given stablemate Dusky Legend finished third at the Festival. The trainer sounds bullish enough in the Weekender pointing out this race has been the target for some time.

A key piece of form is Tara View's defeat of Wizard's Sliabh and Hitherjacques Lady over two miles five at Ludlow just before Christmas. On a strict interpretation Wizard's is five pounds better off for half a length and that's the case Stuart Redding makes in the Weekender. Priced up 14/1 in places and sporting first-time cheekpieces, Wizard's Sliabh makes some appeal but the fact layers bet 9/1 the field shows what an open event this is.

At the time of writing BetVictor and Ladbrokes are the layers offering 14/1 Wizard's Sliabh and they're paying a quarter the odds four places.

Wizard's Sliabh is nothing more than a tentative each-way suggestion.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - the betting debrief

Whether it's good news or bad, I much prefer to do this job on the Friday evening of the Gold Cup.

Here's the scorecard for the blog's highlighted selections at this year's Festival. It's nowhere near last year's performance; a small loss is incurred to the SP prices recorded below but that loss is transformed into profit if calculations are made using the prices taken.

Tuesday
Supreme: Ballyandy, win,  3/1, fourth, lost;
Champion Hurdle: Footpad, each-way, 14/1, fourth, lost.

Wednesday
RSA Chase: Royal Vacation, each-way, 12/1, pulled up, lost;
Coral Cup: Peregrine Run; each-way, 15/2, eleventh, lost;
Champion Chase: Special Tiara, each-way, 11/1, first; returned 7.60;
Champion Bumper: Dans Le Vent, each-way, 100/1, sixth, lost.

Thursday
Pertemps Hurdle: Golden Doyen, each-way, 18/1, twelfth, lost;
Brown Advisory: Thomas Crapper, each-way, 7/1, fourth; returned 1.38;

Friday
Gold Cup: Cue Card, win, 9/2, fell, lost;
Gold Cup: More Of That, each-way, 14/1, sixth, lost.

Total outlay: 10.00 points
Total return:  8.98 points
Profit / loss: -1.02 points

Using prices taken (Special Tiara 20/1, Thomas Crapper 9/1) rather than starting prices, the adjusted figures look more healthy:

Total outlay: 10.00 points
Total return: 14.62 points
Profit / loss: +4.62 points

A little creative accounting here and there can go a long way, you know...

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - Friday's Gold Cup

Watching Special Tiara win the Champion Chase at the track yesterday was a bit like being plugged into the mains for a couple of minutes but I'm cute enough to realise one winner isn't going to rescue an attritional season so when Grosvenor Casinos offered me a small inducement to include a link to the analysis their number-crunchers have carried out on tomorrow's Gold Cup, quite frankly it was too good an opportunity to knock back...

Their number-crunchers have crunched the numbers and Outlander is the pick; I see a couple of their experts are keen on Native River - the consensus amongst fellow racegoers yesterday was that the arrival of some rain would help his chance no end...

I backed last year's winner Don Cossack but as Paddy Brennan went to make that fateful move on Cue Card approaching the third last I thought second was the best I could hope for. Cue Card took an almighty tumble but, thankfully, was up in an instant with Colin Tizzard declaring 'there isn't a bother on him [Cue Card].' Tomorrow's race represents a chance of redemption for Paddy; you can be certain he'll be desperate to take it.

Cue Card is a remarkable specimen and seems as good as ever; however the handicapper dropped his official rating from 176 to 170 following his last run at Ascot - he now has just two pounds in hand over Native River and Outlander. The last horse older than ten to win the Gold Cup was What A Myth (aged 12) in 1969 but it should be said that Cue Card is no typical eleven-year-old gelding. Since 2000 the market leader has won on eight occasions.

From the same stable as last year's winner, Outlander merits every respect having beaten Djakdam, placed in the previous two Gold Cups and still only an eight-year-old, in the Lexus over three miles at Leopardstown this Christmas; previously Djakdam had beaten Outlander over an inadequate two and a half mile trip in the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown.

Willie Mullins has endured more than his fair share of bad luck this year and with no winners after the first two days of the Festival there were a few questions being asked in some quarters yesterday; normal service has been resumed with the master trainer sending out Yorkhill, Un De Sceaux, Nichols Canyon and Let's Dance to win today.

Bristol De Mai was something of revelation winning the Peter Marsh in a common canter by 22 lengths on his penultimate start. He did not jump well when beaten by Native River the last day but that run can be ignored as he came home lame. He's not a horse I'm particularly fond of but 25/1 understates his chance; this is the first time he races beyond three miles.

On official ratings Champagne West doesn't have much to find with the principals to be in with a shout but on occasions his jumping is a cause for concern. Regular readers will know I've used that same comment in relation to Saphir Du Rheu's attempts over the larger obstacles; we've seen some improvement in that department on his last two runs but, together with Irish Cavalier (fifth in this last year) and Minella Rocco, he has at least twelve pounds to find to be competitive.

More Of That is in a similar boat but is highly regarded by his trainer and will appreciate better ground; this one looked unlucky when coming to grief at the last when still in with a chance in the Irish Gold Cup five weeks ago where Sizing John was all out to keep Empire Of Dirt (fourth behind Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair today) at bay.

Twelve months ago Sizing John finished second to Douvan in the Arkle so this extended three and a quarter mile trip may not play to his strengths but his price in the market tells you there are plenty out there who think he has a live chance.

Lizzie Kelly is all set to make history aboard Tea For Two by becoming the first female professional jockey to ride in the race while Smad Place is a front-running grey who was sixth in this event last year beaten some thirty eight lengths.

Thistlecrack may be missing from proceedings but it looks a very open renewal. I take Cue Card to lay to rest the ghosts of last year and will chance More Of That each-way on the back of his trainer's comments.

I have an informal long-standing arrangement with our Media Services people at work. At around 3.28 on Gold Cup day three of us creep quietly into their office (on hands and knees) and watch the race live on one of the many TV screens housed therein. The commentary is turned down and we are permitted to swap notes in running only in hushed tones; bizarrely, it sort of adds to the excitement of it all. Shouting one's selection up the hill in a close finish is considered extremely bad form and is, to all intents and purposes, forbidden; obscure threats of financial penalties have been mooted in the event of outbursts of such recalcitrant behaviour. Last year apart, you'll be pleased to hear that none of my previous twenty selections in this showpiece race have come anywhere near requiring additional vocal support; fortunately, they tend to weaken markedly on the long climb to the post, thereby ensuring I'm in no danger whatsoever of incurring a hefty regulatory fine.

Two selections for the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup:

Cue Card win (5/1 in a number of places this evening);
More Of That each way at 14/1.

Reverse forecast anyone?

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - Thursday

Very brief notes compiled late Wednesday evening after returning from Cheltenham... 

1.30 JLT Novices' Chase
Following a cursory glance at the end of last week the opening JLT looked a pretty competitive affair to me with a couple of commentators describing it as 'hot' so I was mildly surprised to see Rob Wright from The Times say that essentially layers were offering 11/8 Yorkhill jumping round because if he jumps, he wins. Top Notch isn't the biggest but jumped impeccably around Sandown the last day, Paul Nicholls says Politologue is his best chance of the week and Disko is not lightly dismissed but may prefer more cut underfoot. RPR ratings: Top Notch 170, Politologue 168, Disko, Flying Angel 167, Yorkhill 163. Layers offer 6/4 Yorkhill at the time of writing; leave well alone.

2.10 Pertemps Network Final
There's a great story around Tobefair. Philip Hobbs' pair For Good Measure and Golden Doyen look closely matched; the former, owned by J.P. McManus, is shorter in the market but I prefer the latter who will appreciate the drying ground and has run well fresh in the past.

Golden Doyen is an each-way play 18/1 Sky Bet paying a fifth the odds six places.

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle
On more than one occasion this season I've opposed Unowhatimenaharry and I've the burnt fingers to prove it. Cole Harden helped me to (barely) break even at this meeting in 2015 and he showed an improved level of form on soft ground behind Harry Fry's hotpot last time. I'm hoping to see further improvement on better ground; he needs to find the best part of ten lengths but at around 9/1 he represents an each-way bet to nothing.

Late evening update 15.03.17 - best price 15/2 is too short.

4.10 Brown Advisory Plate
I've seen more tips for this than you can shake a stick at. Regular readers will know that after a visit to Robin Dickin's yard in the autumn I've been following Thomas Crapper closely. After a series of reasonable runs without getting placed he turned up at Newbury twelve days ago where the going was pretty desperate. I did the sensible thing, kept my money in my back pocket and he trotted up 20 lengths clear; I've since gone through a box of man-sized Kleenex every day. The one consolation was that after the race Charlie Poste had the good grace to say the ground was 'an unknown'. The handicapper has only raised him five pounds for that last run and, bless my old boots, he has just made the cut... Threats in a ferociously competitive event include Diamond King, Starchitect (widely tipped up) and Sizing Codelco, put up by Colin Tizzard as one of his best chances at the entire meeting.  All that said on RPRs Thomas is 176 and nearest rivals Voix D'Eau, Sizing Codelco and Henryville are rated 169.

Call it a hangover but I simply have to play Thomas Crapper each-way at 9/1 with Betfred paying a quarter the odds five places.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - Wednesday

Beware a tough-looking card on the Ides of March.

Wednesday is Ladies' Day; I'll be at the track for the first time in a number of years to savour the atmosphere and discuss some of the finer points of late nineteenth century French poetry - Rimbaud often proves a particularly difficult topic - with an assortment of former colleagues and alehouses over ten pints of Guinness.

Douvan is 1/4 for the Champion Chase at 3.30 and it's roughly the same odds I'll have run out money before the Fred Winter. Today's edition of The Times reports that's £2.2 million was withdrawn from cash machines at the track last year; I intend to leave my cards at home.

And a quick word of thanks, too, to the Cheltenham management for drastically reducing the cost of my bar bills to no more than four drinks per visit.

Betting plans outlined below have been finalised in complete sobriety and are likely to bear little resemblance to what actually takes place; once again that dichotomy between appearance and reality...

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Skipthecuddles has always been a particular personal favourite of mine but wouldn't necessarily be the most appropriately named winner of the opener on Ladies' Day. Favourite Neon Wolf has been well-touted throughout the season; connections have opted for this rather than the Supreme on account of the drying ground. He won a point-to-point on good to yielding at Ballyragget last March. Barcadys brings strong form to the table but appears to be drifting in the market this evening; third behind Ballyandy in last year's bumper, he went on to reverse placings with that rival in the Aintree bumper three weeks later on four pounds better terms (Willoughby Court fifth). Messire Des Obeaux is one of a clutch of horses with an each-way shout but as nine of the past ten winners have started no bigger than 7/1 I'll sit this one out.

2.10 RSA Novices' Chase
Favourite Might Bite took a crashing fall at Kempton on his penultimate start. He comes into this on the back of a confidence boosting three-runner stroll at Doncaster. The question is will his jumping be good enough - plenty on the Festival preview circuit think not. Alpha Des Obeaux bled at Leopardstown over Christmas but Acapella Bourgeois led his rivals a merry dance at Navan last month. Some commentators felt the chasing pack gave Sandra Hughes' charge too much rope there; on official handicap ratings he's the best horse in this race. Royal Vacation won well over two miles five here at the end of January and merits an each-way interest at 12/1.

Royal Vacation is the each-way selection.

2.50 Coral Cup
There are plenty with smart form at the top of the handicap including Lanzarote Hurdle winner Modus, former Greatwood Hurdle winner Old Guard as well as Tombstone and Supsasundae, fourth and seventh respectively behind Altior in the Supreme last year. Taquin du Seuil, 161 over fences, has a hurdle rating of just 148 while last Saturday The Times ran a two-page spread on the preparation of Mister Miyagi, 'one of the stable's brightest hopes for a second Festival winner', owned by two former Coventry City footballers Ben Turner (now with Burton Albion) and Jay Tabb. Carrying my money Peregrine Run got stuck in the mud at Warwick last time but he'll appreciate the drying ground here and his defeat of Wholestone and West Approach (now goes in the Stayers' Hurdle) over course and distance in November reads well.

Peregrine Run is the each-way selection. Several layers are paying a quarter the odds five places, Paddy Power and Skybet a fifth the odds six places.

3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase
Douvan is expected to win comfortably and should not be opposed. Special Tiara is reported 'in mighty form' and is my each-way pick at 20/1. Pearlyman remains my all-time favourite winner of this race; I hold John Edwards' gelding partly responsible for my current predicaments...

Special Tiara is the each-way selection.

4.50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Often a lottery, in the past decade no winner has had an official rating higher than 133. Of Nicky Henderson's trio the well-touted Divin Bere (139) is set to carry top weight and has had a wind operation since his last run when he beat Master Blueyes a neck at Huntingdon; Master Blueyes is currently third favourite for Friday's Triumph Hurdle. Stablemate Domperignon De Lys (133) is preferred. Paul Nicholls has won the past two renewals and saddles two; last week Dreamcatching (131) was shorter in the market but Sam Twiston-Davies put up Dolos (134) as one of the rides he's most looking forward to with the result the latter is now as low as 9/1 - the value has disappeared. Diable De Sivola has placed form behind Defi Du Seuil (favourite for the Triumph) and Soldier In Action (16/1 for the Triumph) which reads well but if I want a go on a lottery, I can pop down my local newsagent. I'm not going to play.

5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Carter McKay is clear favourite on the back of comments from the yard; Ruby Walsh rides Next Destination. Jamie Snowden has pointed out that in the listed bumper won by Daphne Du Clos at Newbury last month, Dans Le Vent finished within two lengths of Western Ryder; Western Ryder is quoted a 8/1 chance while the Snowden inmate is 66/1. On RPRs Fayonagh is joint-top with the favourite and priced at 12/1 while Dan Skelton's runner Cause Toujours was the other one highlighted in Mike Atherton's piece in last Saturday's copy of The Times. I'm also interested to see whether Alan King has a word for Perfect Harmony in his Weekender column tomorrow. Ordinarily I'm not keen on a four-year-old in the bumper but Cue Card was good enough in 2010 and 66/1 is jolly tempting...

Dans Le Vent is the each-way play at 66/1 with bet365 a quarter the odds four places.

Monday, March 13, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - Tuesday

Firstly a quick word of thanks to readers Reamonnt and TW for pointing me in the direction of two sites that should prove extremely useful in the week ahead:

GaultStats is for those who like to analyse trends before making a decision;

At The Races' dedicated Cheltenham microsite has all the latest news, views and comment.

The Festival is a marathon not a sprint so in the interests of my bank balance (and yours?) just two selections for the opening day...

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
Favourite Melon is clearly held in very high regard but with just one hurdle run under his belt he looks short on experience. Trainer Willie Mullins states in the Weekender 8-12.03.17:

"There's no doubt he has the ability to run a big race and Fiveforthree won the Neptune for us after one run over hurdles."

I was surprised by the turn of foot Ballyandy showed in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month. Nigel Twiston-Davies has opted to run here rather than in the Neptune or the Coral Cup and right now he must be thinking he's made the correct call as a couple of potential dangers have fallen by the wayside - Moon Racer goes in the Champion Hurdle while Betfair Hurdle second Movewiththetimes misses the Festival after picking up an injury.

Last year's Champion Bumper winner is the top one on RPR and official ratings but the nagging doubt is stable form - an RTF figure of 38% looks on the low side with just one win from twenty one runners in the past fortnight. Contrast that with Chris Gordon who has sent out ten winners from his last fifteen runners! In case you were wondering, Chris has one entry at the Festival - Remiluc in the Martin Pipe on Friday.

Bunk Off Early heads the Irish challenge and makes plenty of appeal to this employee in any Festival week, River Wylde represents last year's winning trainer Nicky Henderson and Ben Pauling's High Bridge is worth a second look at an each-way price but I'm going to remain loyal to Ballyandy who did me a favour in the photo finish to last year's bumper.

Ballyandy is the selection.

3.30 Champion Hurdle
In November J.P. McManus' Yanworth, second in the Neptune last year, beat Lil Rockerfeller over two miles three and a half furlongs in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot. Immediately afterwards the general consensus was connections would step up in trip and target Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle. That plan was quickly blown out of the water for the very next week Unowhatimeanharry, in the same ownership, beat Ballyoptic 'easily' over a three mile trip at Newbury. Fast forward four months and we find Yanworth, still unbeaten this season, favourite for the Champion Hurdle despite displaying some rather indifferent hurdling in the interim. It all just seems slightly incongruous. Admittedly, this year's race couldn't be considered a vintage renewal, but with twelve set to face the starter it remains wide open.

Nicky Henderson saddles three. Buveur D'Air, third behind Altior in last year's Supreme, would probably appreciate more cut underfoot; he beat Petit Mouchoir a neck at Aintree on soft ground last April.

Brain Power has his ground so it's not immediately obvious why he is a bigger price but his eighth over course and distance in the Greatwood Hurdle behind North Hill Harvey (holds entry in Friday's County Hurdle) just leaves a nagging doubt - does he handle the track?

At the age of ten, My Tent Or Yours, placed in this race on two previous occasions, is probably past his best.

I keep coming back to Petit Mouchoir, eighth behind Altior in last year's Supreme when trained by Willie Mullins, top-rated on current RPR ratings and equal top-rated with Yanworth by the official handicapper. He likes to race prominently, has won his last two from the front and would probably have won the Fighting Fifth but for a crashing fall three out. Is he good enough to win a Champion Hurdle from the front? Henry De Bromhead's charge is a 7/1chance.

But wait, there's further intrigue with Footpad whose form is closely linked to that of Petit Mouchoir. The latter has beaten the former twice this season but there was just a hint the last day that Daryl Jacob had held up Footpad, third in the previous year's Triumph, a shade too long ('nearest finish' comment noted). Willie Mullins' charge was in receipt of two pounds at Leopardstown; he states in the Weekender 08-12.03.17:

"...I expect the undulating track [Cheltenham] to play to his strengths, so he should be able to give Petit Mouchoir a good run."

After his annus horribilis you can see why Mullins would be mighty keen to reverse the form although it's noted five-year-olds have a poor record in this race. That said, those layers are offering 20/1... I fear it's Siren voices I can hear calling but their song is so damned seductive it's pointless trying to resist...

Footpad is the each-way selection.

4.10 Mares' Hurdle
Before a decision had been taken on Limini's participation in the Champion I had Vroum Vroum Mag down as a vulnerable favourite in the Mares' Hurdle (4.10), a race she won last year. She looked to have a hard race at Doncaster six weeks ago but it's all academic now as Ruby Walsh rides Limini who will oppose her stablemate in this year's renewal. After all that I'm going to watch from the sidelines.

Good luck to one and all at this year's Festival!    

Friday, March 10, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - the calm before the storm

I'd have to admit my concentration wasn't totally on the weather when ITV Racing's Lucy Verasamy gave her long-range forecast for the Festival last weekend but I'm pretty sure she mentioned this had been a very dry winter.

Amongst the images that immediately sprang to mind were One For Arthur and Willoughby Court winning in desperate ground at Warwick; Bristol De Mai in the Peter Marsh and Neon Wolf in the Rossington Main at Haydock; Native River in the Welsh National; Unowhatimeanharry in the Long Walk and Otago Trail in Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase. Dry?

The perennial Festival conundrum presents itself once again. We've spent winter months trying to evaluate races run for the most part on soft ground and then, all of a sudden, as if the task isn't hard enough already, we're challenged with predicting the outcome of top class championship races that are likely to be run on ground better than we've seen for the past four months.

Bearing all that in mind, here are my Friday preview notes which are, as always, subject to change without prior notice. I've done slightly more work for Wednesday's card when I'll be at the track, asking the bookmakers for their very best prices and in the process making my own personal contribution to their summer holidays on the sun-kissed beaches of the Bahamas...


TUESDAY


1.30 Supreme Hurdle
Ballyandy won the bumper last year and goes in this rather than the Neptune. Together with Foxtail Hill he has been put up by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies as his best chance at the meeting. He's on the shortlist and so is Moon Racer if taking up this option. David Pipe's charge is fragile but talented and has finished ahead of Ballyandy twice this season, the last time giving that rival four pounds and a two and threequarter lengths beating at the November Open meeting. For the record, the vet reported Ballyandy suffered post-race ataxia on that occasion. Connections still have to make a decision about Neon Wolf but appear to be leaning towards the Neptune.


3.30 Champion Hurdle
Yanworth is undefeated this season but I'm against him here. Owned by J.P. McManus his original aim earlier this season was the Stayers' Hurdle but he's re-routed as J.P. has red hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry in Thursday's feature. Yanworth won the last day at Wincanton but didn't really jump very well at all. Alan King reports his charge has come on for that run but his hurdling remains a cause for concern.


4.10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle
Trying to predict Willie Mullins' running plans is nearly as difficult as finding the winners of the races themselves, witness the decision on Wednesday not to supplement Limini for the Champion Hurdle. Before that surprise I would have been very wary about taking a short price about Vroum Vroum Mag. Last year's winner was 'all out' to hold Midnight Jazz a head over two miles at Doncaster six weeks ago; she was placed on antibiotics afterwards and remained on the easy list for a time. Quoting the master trainer:

"She was terrible at Doncaster. But she's coming back right, we're much happier with her."

With that sort of preparation she looks vulnerable, currently holding entries in the Champion Hurdle, the Mares' Hurdle, the Champion Chase, the Ryanair, the Stayers' Hurdle and the Gold Cup; Limini holds a single entry - for the Mares' Hurdle - for which she is quoted a 5/4 chance.



WEDNESDAY


1.30 Neptune Hurdle
A number of fancied runners have form on soft but how they'll handle better ground is a matter of some conjecture. Neon Wolf earned RPR rating 152 when beating Elgin (RPR 145 - entry in the Supreme) at Haydock while Finian's Oscar earned RPR 147 beating Capitaine (RPR 142) in the Tolworth,. Since 2007 when Massini's Maguire sprung a surprise at odds of 20/1, the SP of the winner has been no bigger than 7/1. Connections of Messire Des Obeaux (RPR 146) were in no way dismayed when their charge was beaten a neck conceding eight pounds to Keeper Hill (RPR 139) at Huntingdon the last time.


2.10 RSA Chase
Favourite Might Bite brings arguably the best form to the table but has been touted as 'the lay of the meeting' on the Festival preview circuit. This year's renewal looks open but perhaps not as competitive as the JLT on Thursday which has routinely been described as 'hot'. American will be of interest if allowed to take his chance although I've heard one commentator carp his Warwick win (14.01.17) on the grounds that the horses beaten that day have failed to frank the form. I like Royal Vacation who wouldn't be the best on ratings but looks tough - his win at the track over two miles five (28.01.17) bears scrutiny (Singlefarmpayment unlucky to be brought down). There is a query about Acapella Bourgeois' latest win at Navan but Sandra Hughes was quick enough to talk up her charge's chance this week - he is preferred to Alpha Des Obeaux who bled badly last time while, whisper it, Whisper is older than ideal... Nine of the last ten winners have been aged seven.


2.50 Coral Cup
I like Peregrine Run on 10-12. His defeat of Wholestone (holds Albert Bartlett entry) and West Approach (holds Albert Bartlett and Stayers' Hurdle entries) at the track (11.11.17) reads well. Carrying my money he got stuck in the mud at Warwick the last day behind Willoughby Court (Neptune and Albert Bartlett entries) and Gayebury (Pertemps and Albert Bartlett entries). Earlier in the week Ben Linfoot's piece on Grade One form in handicaps will have sent readers scuttling to their form books. Tombstone, fourth behind Altior in the Supreme last year, goes in this rather than the Champion Hurdle; with 11-5 on his back he is, unsurprisingly, amongst the market leaders. He also holds an entry in the County.


3.30 Champion Chase
Douvan is the banker at the meeting but he's no betting proposition for the likes of you and me. Henry De Bromhead reports Special Tiara 'in mighty form'; third in the past two renewals, he is worthy of each-way support at 20/1 on his preferred decent ground.


4.50 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
There have been some big-priced winners of the Fred Winter in the past ten years but none has been rated higher than 133. Of Nicky Henderson's duo Divin Bere is probably too high on 139 while Domperignon De Lys is around the right mark on 133 as is Dreamcatching on 131 - Paul Nicholls has won the previous two renewals but connections appeared downbeat on this one's chance at a preview evening. Diable De Sivola (132) has a hatful of placed efforts to his name but second to Defi Du Seuil (Supreme and Triumph entries) here last November catches the eye.


5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Over the years Willie Mullins has appeared frustratingly equivocal about his charges' chances in the concluding bumper. No such ambiguity this year about Carter McKay with the result the gelding is priced up the clear favourite.


THURSDAY


1.30 JLT Novices' Chase
Yorkhill is short enough for a very competitive JLT given his jumping after racing at Leopardstown on Sunday was considered 'rusty'. Described as 'exciting' by connections, he's scheduled to have another schooling session before making the journey across the Irish Sea - I'm a layer rather than a backer. Paul Nicholls rates Politologue his best chance of the week, Nicky Henderson states Top Notch likes soft while Disko improved markedly for a front-running ride at Leopardstown last month.


2.10 Pertemps Network Final
Pertemps favourite Tobefair is a story in himself. Philip Hobbs' two runners, Golden Doyen and For Good Measure, are closely matched after finishing first and second in a qualifier here last October. Owned by J.P. perhaps it's not surprising that money has come for the latter but marginal preference is for the former who will appreciate good ground and has been trained with this race in mind.


3.30 Stayers' Hurdle
2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden hinted at a return to better form when beaten by Unowhatimenaharry last time. He was in receipt of eight pounds that day but the race was run on unsuitably soft ground; given drying conditions at around 9/1 NRNB he looks an each-way bet to nothing.


FRIDAY


1.30 Triumph Hurdle
At 10/1 Tiger Roll is the biggest priced winner of the Triumph in the past decade. Earlier in the week I'd picked up that filly Meri Devie was highly regarded at Closutton; that view is confirmed in the Weekender. Ruby Walsh has to choose between her and Baupaume; her price has contracted accordingly - she's now a 14/1 chance. I think I'm right in saying that Snow Drop was the last filly to win the Triumph in 2000.


2.10 County Hurdle
I had William H Bonney pencilled in but I didn't foresee an entry in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. A shot at the £50,000 bonus on offer is a possibility should he come home in front tomorrow. Dan Skelton won this last year with Superb Story and he's followed a similar path with North Hill Harvey.


3.30 Gold Cup
Still in with every chance coming to the last, More Of That unseated his rider with a bad mistake in the Irish Gold Cup five weeks ago. Jonjo O'Neill still rates this horse amongst the very best he has trained. Given decent ground he's my each-way outsider at 14/1; I missed 25s earlier in the week.


5.30 Grand Annual Chase
The obvious two with Grade One form are Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets. The former is reported to have worked  'lethargically' recently.


Finally, at 4/1 with Betway, I think Ireland look overpriced to win the Prestbury  / Betbright Cup.


That's it for now. In time-honoured tradition, I'll aim to publish a post for each day of the Festival. "Form an orderly queue!" is a cry that's as likely to be heard in the bar as in the betting ring this year...

Friday, March 03, 2017

Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase 2017

"Alexa, what's going to win this year's Gold Cup?"

A copy of 'Cheltenham: The Ultimate Guide 2017' successfully secured from my local newsagent, plans to watch Channel 5 box sets 'Baby-faced Brides' and 'Tattoo Disasters: What Were You Inking?' have been put on indefinite hold.

With less than a fortnight to the start of the Festival, somehow tomorrow's cards at Doncaster and Newbury feel like a couple of Eddie Jones' diversionary tactics.

Just seven are declared for the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.35) run over three and a quarter miles at Doncaster where the going is currently described as soft.

Last year's winner The Last Samuri used this as a stepping stone for the Aintree Grand National  where Kim Bailey's charge ran a fine race to finish second behind Rule The World. Connections are following the same route this season but the gelding starts off a mark of 161, 12 pounds higher, and faces a stiff task conceding 11 pounds and more to his field.

Market leader Definitely Red looked a horse to reckon with when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day seven lengths ahead of Wakanda with RSA winner Blaklion a further three and a half lengths away in third and Yala Enki fourth.

Next time in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock third looked the best Brian Ellison's charge could achieve behind Bristol De Mai when he was hampered three out, unseating Henry Brooke in the process.

Wakanda's second in the Rowland Meyrick reads well but he jumped poorly and never went a yard in the Grand National Trial at Haydock a fortnight ago; he was eventually pulled up. On Wetherby form he is closely matched with Definitely Red.

Sego Success has disappointed this punter too many times but he has won here before and the first-time visor may help the cause while Yala Enki hasn't raced over this trip previously and I'm not convinced he'll see it out.

Vivaldi Collonges is priced up the outsider of the seven but he ran well for a long way behind One For Arthur on desperate ground at Warwick seven weeks ago. Joint top on Racing Post ratings, he isn't readily dismissed but Sam Twiston-Davies rides at Kelso.

Looking Well, second behind Ziga Boy last time, gets in at the bottom of the handicap with a feather weight and Ryan Day can claim a further five. On New Year's Day last year he was beaten five lengths by Definitely Red in a Catterick novice chase off level weights. Quoting from Nicky Richards' stable tour in the Weekender 12-16.10.16:

"He needs goodish ground so I won't be overracing him this winter, but I think he'll be one to follow as we get into the spring."

Only the seven runners but it's a wide open contest and you can make a case for each. Since 2000 five horses have carried 10-00 to victory - Knight Templar (2000), Skillwise (2002), Out The Black (2009) Ikorodu Road (2012) and Quentin Collonges (2013).

The ground isn't ideal but I'm going to take the chance - Looking Well (11/2) is the selection.

"Alexa, haven't you heard that Thistlecrack is a non-runner?"