Friday, March 17, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - the betting debrief

Whether it's good news or bad, I much prefer to do this job on the Friday evening of the Gold Cup.

Here's the scorecard for the blog's highlighted selections at this year's Festival. It's nowhere near last year's performance; a small loss is incurred to the SP prices recorded below but that loss is transformed into profit if calculations are made using the prices taken.

Supreme: Ballyandy, win,  3/1, fourth, lost;
Champion Hurdle: Footpad, each-way, 14/1, fourth, lost.

RSA Chase: Royal Vacation, each-way, 12/1, pulled up, lost;
Coral Cup: Peregrine Run; each-way, 15/2, eleventh, lost;
Champion Chase: Special Tiara, each-way, 11/1, first; returned 7.60;
Champion Bumper: Dans Le Vent, each-way, 100/1, sixth, lost.

Pertemps Hurdle: Golden Doyen, each-way, 18/1, twelfth, lost;
Brown Advisory: Thomas Crapper, each-way, 7/1, fourth; returned 1.38;

Gold Cup: Cue Card, win, 9/2, fell, lost;
Gold Cup: More Of That, each-way, 14/1, sixth, lost.

Total outlay: 10.00 points
Total return:  8.98 points
Profit / loss: -1.02 points

Using prices taken (Special Tiara 20/1, Thomas Crapper 9/1) rather than starting prices, the adjusted figures look more healthy:

Total outlay: 10.00 points
Total return: 14.62 points
Profit / loss: +4.62 points

A little creative accounting here and there can go a long way, you know...


Anonymous said...

I tune in looking for inspiration on the Midlands Grand National and what do I get……a wash-up on the blogs Cheltenham performance!

A 46.2% ROI to advised prices is an excellent performance by any standards and far exceeded my own modest return on the week.

I was quite keen on the chances of Gonalston Cloud at Uttoxeter but fear the over-night rain may have scuppered his chance so I’ll just watch with interest. Johny Og could be thrown in back over hurdles but I’ll not be tempted.

Just one bet for me today; I think Sleep Easy might be progressive enough to shoulder his 7lbs penalty and top weight around Kempton and there is a little bit of value at 20/1 EW


Sandracer said...

Plus 4 points is better than nowt G. I won 2 points overall (pachu de polda on the tote). Better than nothing haha. All good. Take it easy out there.

GeeDee said...

Hi TW & Sandracer,

First main *critical* point - after Festival week, we've all come out in front. That's *exactly* what I like to see.. ;)

With feet placed firmly on the ground, the blog's Festival ROI figures make pleasant enough reading, I agree, but this has been one torrid season - I'd need to go back and check the fine detail but I wouldn't be far out if I said Special Tiara is the first winner I've tipped since October.

Sorry to disappoint on Uttoxeter form, TW - time constraints... ;) After watching Friday's replays I only had a cursory glance at the cards but I noted two of our old friends in action.

I fear Johnny Og (4.10 Uttoxeter) has turned sour, fallen out of love with the game and needs to be given a wide berth until some signs of a revival are detected.

Get Involved (3.50 Kempton) posed more of a dilemma this morning as I thought I'd seen inchoate signs of improvement in his last run at Newbury (03.03.17) where he'd raced up front with eventual winner Behind The Wire until a mistake at the eleventh appears to have put paid to his chance. Today's effort (third, beaten under five lengths by Bugsy Malone) appears to confirm the improvement but in many ways also blows the plan to pieces - the cat's out of the bag. 14/1 early doors today, he went off 9/1.

As a general rule of thumb I've noted Dickin's runners tend to be supported in the market. If ever asked to substantiate this claim, I use this one example to illustrate the point: in the autumn La Fille Francaise was a filly pointed out to me as one who looked more like a five-year-old than a three-year-old. On her racecourse debut at Warwick (16.11.16) I took a small each-way interest at 50/1 in a High St betting shop three hours before the off. She finished sixth, returned at odds of 9/1.

Thanks again for your contributions - keep winning... ;)