Monday, June 16, 2014

World Cup wagers?

For the first time in many years I've had to forgo Royal Ascot form study.

The World Cup has proved a distraction, particualry the article entitled 'Prediction' compiled by researchers at the University of Strirling and published on The Scorecard website.

Bravely, the team at Stirling has predicted correct score outcomes for all matches at the 2014 World Cup.

As an exercise, using Oddschecker as the comparison tool, I noted the best prices in correct scores markets for the 48 scheduled group games before a ball had been kicked in the competition.

At the time of writing the team has predicted three correct scores from eleven completed games:

Chile 3 Australia 1  (15/1 BetVictor)
Ivory Coast 2 Japan 1 (11/1 Ladbrokes)
Argentina 2 Bosnia 1 (17/2 Ladbrokes)

A nominal £1.00 correct score wager on each of the completed games to date shows a healthy-looking profit of £25.50 on £11 staked.

Of course, as always, past results are not necessarily a guide to future performance...    

Friday, June 06, 2014

Epsom Derby 2014

I usually indulge myself by taking a small interest in the Epsom Derby although my record in the race is thoroughly abysmal.

Tomorrow's renewal is a one horse affair according to layers who bet 7/1 the field bar favourite and form choice Australia, priced up at 6/4. Ruler Of The World was the biggest priced winner in the past decade when returned at odds of 7/1 last year.

The going is reported to be drying out but rain is forecast; I've used the Dante form to try and identify some each-way value. At York The Grey Gatsby beat Arod and True Story and was then turned out 17 days later to take the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly.

True Story looked held when hampered a furlong from home in the Dante; several commentators felt he didn't give his true running that day and can reverse placings with second Arod who was staying on at the end. Fallon is bullish enough about True Story's chance in the Weekender while Aron's pilot Jamie Spencer would probably prefer the rain to stay away.

This evening BetVictor bet 18/1 Arod and 12/1 True Story; I'll support True Story each-way should any rain get into the ground, otherwise I'll chance Arod (each-way) - on Timeform ratings True Story is second and Aron fourth best of the sixteen runners in the field.