Sunday, December 31, 2017

Notes on Cheltenham's New Year's Day card 2018

To quote Alfred Tennyson:

"... but Hope
Smiles from the threshold of the year to come
Whispering 'It will be happier;'"

I certainly hope so.

The Relkeel Hurdle (3.10) is the highlight on tomorrow's card but the race doesn't make much appeal as a betting medium; for that matter, neither does the Dipper Novices' Chase (1.25) or the Watch Live Racing on BetBright.com Handicap Chase (12.50) - several of the five day declarations also hold entries for next Saturday's re-arranged Welsh National at Chepstow.

In recent years the market has proved a reasonable guide to the BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase (2.00); since 2008 just two winners have obliged at odds bigger than 8/1 - Stan in 2009 at 14/1 and last year Shantou Flyer at 20/1.

Shantou Flyer beat Top Gamble (third) and Quite By Chance (sixth) twelve months ago so the fact Shantou is generally quoted a 16/1 chance for tomorrow's renewal indicates he has been bang out of form recently. He was pulled up behind Get On The Yager in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day; connections try first-time cheekpieces tomorrow and the step back in trip could help.

Another outsider Viconte Du Noyer finished sixty lengths behind Splash Of Ginge in the BetVictor Gold Cup here six weeks ago (Theinval falling at the first). His second behind Sizing Granite at the Punchestown Festival reads well.

Of the market leaders Splash of Ginge's stablemate Ballyhill is probably the least exposed but his fall at Aintree last time is off-putting.

The opening Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (12.15) has triggered interest.

Springtown Lake, officially rated 139, sets the standard, having finished second to On The Blind Side at Sandown last month. The form of the Hobbs yard remains a cause for concern.

Ainchea is clearly well-regarded, as is Harry Fry's Onefortheroadtom. Early in the autumn Warren Greatrex was asked to nominate one from another yard to keep an eye on and this one was his selection. In the Weekender (28.12.17-01.01.18) Fry states:

"We went to Exeter in October to give him his first experience under rules and it was a terrific effort to edge out Lalor in a hot contest - the first three home are all rated above 130. Unfortunately I got it wrong next time at Worcester as the track was too tight for him, so you can ignore that effort."

[Lalor is currently rated 133, Kilbricken Storm 147 after finishing third behind Poetic Rhythm in the Challow.]

Aye Aye Charlie is given every respect having finished third behind On The Blind Side at Aintree in April, beaten eight and threequarter lengths. He fell three from home in the race won by On The Blind Side at the Open meeting here in November.

Tikkanbar won a Plumpton novice by 19 lengths, looks an assured stayer and could be anything but this event has been won by a five or six-year-old in the previous five renewals while Whatmore, with an official rating of 132, was only beaten one and a quarter lengths into fourth at Haydock the last day - I'm hoping the step up in trip suits.

At the time of writing BetVictor and Paddy Power offer 12/1 Whatmore. Provided I manage to get up in time tomorrow morning and there are still the eight runners I'll have an each-way wager on Whatmore.

I'd like to wish all readers a very happy and prosperous new year.

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Welsh Grand National 2017

A very quick look at tomorrow's Welsh Grand National at Chepstow; the official going is currently heavy, soft in places, and the meeting is subject to a 7.30am precautionary inspection.

Eight of the last ten winners have carried 11-0 or less.

When Native River won last year's renewal (with Raz De Maree second, Houblon Des Obeaux third, Vicente sixth, Bishops Road tenth and Milansbar pulled up), he became the first horse to carry top weight to victory since Carvill's Hill in 1991.

Taking riders' allowances into consideration, I've concentrated on runners set to carry 11-0 or less with some sort of previous form at this track.

Raz De Maree has a couple of eye-catching warm-up runs to his name and it's unlikely there's another Native River in this field. I've seen Gavin Crowelll's charge tipped up here and there; he's generally a 20/1 shot but celebrates thirteen years of age on Monday.

Wild West Wind beat Milansbar two and threequarter lengths into third in the Welsh Grand National Trial on heavy ground here two and a half weeks ago. The winner has gone up four pounds for that; Milansbar ran in snatches that day and connections have decided to apply first-time cheekpieces.

Buckhorn Timothy is at the right end of the handicap. He didn't jump well when sent off co-favourite for the 2016 running of the Welsh Grand National Trial and after that flop wasn't seen again until winning a three and a quarter mile hurdle at Fontwell in October. He followed up with another win over the smaller obstacles at Wincanton which just makes me suspicious he may have lost confidence in the jumping department...

Of the four on the short-list, Wild West Wind is potentially the least exposed. Wild West Wind, generally a 12/1 shot, is the each-way suggestion.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Christmas jumpers

On official ratings tomorrow's Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) looks at the mercy of last year's winner Unowhatimeanharry but his price has been steadily on the drift (out to 2/1 now) and the manner of the defeat by Beer Goggles last time has allowed room for the doubts to set in.

There's a school of thought that 'Harry', ten years old in a week or so, isn't the horse he once was.

Those looking to oppose are unlikely to be bowled over by the prices on offer.

The layers don't appear keen to take too many chances. Sam Spinner, with a record of four wins and two seconds from his six hurdle starts to date, is rated some 12 pounds inferior to the favourite yet is priced as low as 13/2 with Ladbrokes.

I like the Long Walk but this year's renewal looks difficult. Instead I've opted for an each-way chance in the concluding Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at 3.35.

Since the race's inception in 2001, no horse older than seven has secured victory and neither has one carrying top weight; last year Brain Power won under a burden of 11-11.

Elgin heads the handicap this year having won the listed William Hill Handicap Hurdle over course and distance at the beginning of last month (Air Horse One fourth, Verdana Blue fifth and Caid Du Lin seventh) and then following up in the Greatwood at Cheltenham two weeks later (Nietzsche sixth, Chesterfield tenth).

According to calculations I've carried out on the back of a discarded fag packet, Air Horse One is closely matched with both Elgin and, on a line through High Bridge, Charli Parcs, although the latter-named could well improve for his seasonal debut.

That said, Noel Fehily has ridden both Charli Parcs and Air Horse One; he was aboard the former at Newbury the last day and rides Air Horse One tomorrow.

Handler Harry Fry knows what's required - his Jolly's Cracked It dead-heated with Sternrubin last year (N. Fehily up) - and he should also have a decent idea where he lies with Air Horse One, Misterton finishing a neck second to Elgin in the Greatwood. Nicky Henderson has stated that both Charli Parcs and the mare Verdana Blue would appreciate slightly better ground.

Divin Bere, with Bryony Frost claiming five, warrants every respect; he has not been seen since finishing second in the Fred Winter and then second behind Defi Du Seuil at Aintree in April.

Seamus Mullins saddles two. Fergall ran a stormer to finish third in this last year at odds of 25/1 while Chesterfield came home eighth. The latter went on to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle but his comeback run in the Greatwood was a tad disappointing.

At the very bottom of the handicap Man Of Plenty has form behind Misterton, Limited Reserve (second in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle) and A Hare Breath which may suggest he could outrun his current odds of 66/1 (Betfair) but I'm conscious that in recent weeks blog selections have all been running like the proverbial drain...

I was taken with Air Horse One on his penultimate run here in the William Hill; Air Horse One is the each-way suggestion, available generally at 12/1 a quarter the odds four places.

On Boxing Day Bristol De Mai goes for the second leg of the £1 million bonus in the King George at Kempton.

His Racing Post rating of 189 is 11 points ahead of nearest rivals Fox Norton and Thistlecrack. That said, in a piece earlier in the week David Ashworth indicated the horse has shown his very best form on soft / heavy ground...

The going at Kempton is currently good to soft. Clerk of the course Barney Clifford states:

"I've two different forecasts, one with 20mm [of rain] and one with 5mm, so I have no idea... It's really volatile and sporadic - to have two forecasts so far apart, it's like the north and south pole. All I can do is tell people where we are."

Something to think about while the relatives squabble over Christmas dinner...

Season's greetings.

Friday, December 15, 2017

Diverted to Doncaster

There's top class fare on offer on the second day of the International meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow.

Anyone interested in a wager in the Caspian Gold Cup at 1.55 will have had a close look at the BetVictor Gold Cup run at the track four weeks ago; Splash Of Ginge collected the spoils ahead of Starchitect (second), Le Prezien (third), Ballyalton (fourth), Roman De Senam (fifth), Foxtail Hill (eighth) and Guitar Pete (ninth).

Splash Of Ginge was raised five pounds for that effort and now races off 139 - on New Year's Day 2015 he won off a mark of 145. To my mind Starchitect, beaten just a neck, threw away his chance with poor jumps at the final two flights.

I tipped Foxtail Hill that day. He adopted his customary role at the head of affairs but his jumping was nowhere near as slick as we'd seen when he won the Randox Health Handicap Chase over a trip of two miles at the track in October. On the final circuit it looked as though he was struggling to jump out the ground which was officially described as soft and looked particularly tiring.

Tomorrow's going is described as soft, good to soft in places and the contest for the lead may not be quite so hard-fought as the last day; this race is run over the slightly stiffer new course.

Handler Nigel Twiston-Davies has talked up the chance of Splash Of Ginge; I was (and still am) prepared to give Foxtail Hill another chance and was in the process of checking out a price (14/1) when I was serendipitously sidetracked by one in the finale at Doncaster.

Anthony Honeyball's Solstice Son went into the notebook recently on the back of these comments in last week's Weekender:

"It's not often you make the long drive home after your horse has pulled up and you feel quietly pleased, but that was exactly how I felt after this horse's reappearance at Cheltenham last month. He ran a stormer for the first two and a half miles before he cut out as if the tank had hit empty. Will [Biddick] looked after him, but it was so pleasing to watch him run as he didn't half look decent. He'll do better on decent ground and will be competitive from 2m6f to 3m. I think he should come into his own in the spring when the winter ground is gone."

Now, I didn't expect to see him out quite so soon but the ground at Doncaster is officially good, good to soft in places.

He faces some stiff-looking opposition including the 2015 winner Sego Success and Viriglio, beaten over a shorter trip at Aintree last time out. A couple in the field - Ballybolley and Vibrato Valtat - have done most of their racing over shorter trips and this is Kilcrea Vale's first attempt at three miles.

Course and distance winner Killala Quay is talented but inconsistent - connections will be hoping first time blinkers help the cause - while What Happens Now has been kept on the go since June.

At 14/1 Solstice Son is the each-way selection in the bet365 Handicap Chase at Doncaster.

Friday, December 08, 2017

A suggestion for Sandown

Uncertainty over the weather means inspections are scheduled at Sandown, Aintree and Chepstow tomorrow morning.

The covers are down at Sandown where an inspection will take place at 8.00am for the Tingle Creek card which is under threat from frost; a forecast of snow has led Aintree stewards to call an inspection at 8.30am for the Becher Chase card; and at 8.00am Chepstow stewards will also check for frost.

Picking a meeting to survive the weather is proving nearly as difficult as picking a winner...

I've opted for Sandown; with the covers in place and overnight temperatures in Esher predicted to fall no lower than minus one, racing should go ahead...

Following an unsatisfactory midweek exercise Douvan misses the Tingle Creek at 2.55. Fox Norton is the one to beat but I'll be watching for an improved performance from course and distance winner Ar Mad who finished three and a half lengths behind Un De Sceaux in last year's renewal; Gary Moore's charge did well to finish so close after a bad blunder at the sixth.

The previous year Ar Mad beat Bristol De Mai ten lengths in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase - this year's renewal looks a very high class (and rather trappy) affair.

Jumping is always at a premium here; to date Brain Power has looked better over the bigger obstacles than Finian's Oscar but the latter possesses a distinct turn of foot which could serve him well if still within striking distance at the final flight. North Hill Harvey, on the same official rating as Finian's Oscar (155), is by no means out of the reckoning.

In search of an each-way wager I initially looked at the London National (3.30) but noted that Milansbar's preferred engagement is in the 2.45 at Chepstow while The Young Master will run in the 1.30 at Aintree if that meeting gets the green light.

The Jumeirah Hotels and Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (2.20) looks typically competitive - a case can be made for most in the field.

Alan King holds a strong hand with William H Bonney and Fidux. The former caught the eye behind Elgin in the Greatwood at Cheltenham when a lack of fitness told coming up the hill; the latter looked unlucky to unship Kevin Dowling at the last here last month.

I'm inclined to see Jenkins as something of a talking horse; I'll revise that view if necessary but he finished some eight and a half lengths behind William H Bonney in the Greatwood.

Last year A Hare Breath ran a blinder on his seasonal debut to finish two and a quarter lengths behind North Hill Harvey in the Greatwood; six weeks ago the plan had been to follow the same route this time; for whatever reason, there has been a re-think.

Course and distance winner Exitas has been in good form over fences recently; his chase rating is 133 but he starts off 125 tomorrow and has a seven pound claimer on board.

Front runner Rayvin Black is another on a handy mark (135);  he raced off 141 in the Contenders' Hurdle here in February, likes the track but really needs more cut underfoot.

Zubayr's fifth behind Brain Power in this event last year reads well and he now starts off a mark four pounds lower; rider Mr L. Williams can claim seven. I'm hoping Paul Nicholls' charge has come on for his pipe-opener at Wincanton last month...

At 14/1 (one fifth the odds four places) with both Betfair and Paddy Power Zubayr is the each-way suggestion.

Friday, December 01, 2017

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 2017

What's going on here then?

Ladbrokes take over sponsorship of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and for the inaugural running of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase William Hill and SkyBet offer each-way terms one fifth the odds seven places...

Twenty one have been declared for tomorrow's showpiece at 3.00 with the going on the chase course currently described as good to soft, soft in places. Last year Carole's Destrier finished just half a length behind impressive winner Native River with Double Ross third, Vyta Du Roc sixth and Regal Encore pulled up.

Since 2007 Denman (2009) is the only nine-year-old to have won and in the same timeframe just two have carried less than 11-0 to victory - Diamond Harry (2010) and Carruthers (2011).

Carruthers was bred by Lord Oaksey and trained by Mark Bradstock, as is tomorrow's top weight Coneygree. There won't be a dry eye in the house if connections manage to pull off the stunt again; the last ten-year-old to win was Diamond Edge in 1981.

Willie Mullins saddles two, Total Recall and Pleasant Company, with the former at the head of the market after a hint from the trainer earlier in the week the gelding may be (some way?) ahead of the handicapper. This race hasn't proved a happy hunting ground for Irish runners over the years.

American is talented, fragile and has few miles on the clock. This race has been the target for some considerable time, as it has been for Label Des Obeaux. In the Weekender Alan King states:

"My fear is that he has too much weight. Smad Place [2015 winner] was handily treated, whereas Label Des Obeaux doesn't look handicapped to win a race like this.

"We have to try and find some improvement in him, so we schooled him in cheekpieces the other day. They seemed to sharpen him up and he'll probably wear those on Saturday."

Of Nicky Henderson's pair I prefer Vyta Du Roc, sixth last year off 143, starting off 140 here and well backed, to stablemate Whisper. The latter was rated 164 behind Thistlecrack in the 2016 World Hurdle but earned a chase rating of 157 when beating Clan Des Obeaux in a match at Kempton 19 days ago; all three of his chase wins have come at distances between two mile four and two mile five furlongs.

It would be no surprise to see Singlefarmpayment in the mix; he was beaten four lengths by Cogry last time conceding 13 pounds. With Jamie Balgary's three pound claim aboard Cogry, Tom George's charge has to concede 11 pounds tomorrow so they appear more closely matched than the bookmakers' prices might indicate.

You pays your money and takes your choice.

Former Gold Cup winner Coneygree (16/1 one fifth the odds six places with Betfair) and Cogry catch the eye from a value perspective but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in the Alan King trained Label Des Obeaux, placed in seven of his nine chase starts to date.

He's currently priced up 33/1 with Betfair who pay a fifth the odds six places; William Hill offer 25/1 a fifth the odds seven places.

You pays your money and takes your choice - I'm with Betfair.