Friday, December 01, 2017

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 2017

What's going on here then?

Ladbrokes take over sponsorship of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and for the inaugural running of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase William Hill and SkyBet offer each-way terms one fifth the odds seven places...

Twenty one have been declared for tomorrow's showpiece at 3.00 with the going on the chase course currently described as good to soft, soft in places. Last year Carole's Destrier finished just half a length behind impressive winner Native River with Double Ross third, Vyta Du Roc sixth and Regal Encore pulled up.

Since 2007 Denman (2009) is the only nine-year-old to have won and in the same timeframe just two have carried less than 11-0 to victory - Diamond Harry (2010) and Carruthers (2011).

Carruthers was bred by Lord Oaksey and trained by Mark Bradstock, as is tomorrow's top weight Coneygree. There won't be a dry eye in the house if connections manage to pull off the stunt again; the last ten-year-old to win was Diamond Edge in 1981.

Willie Mullins saddles two, Total Recall and Pleasant Company, with the former at the head of the market after a hint from the trainer earlier in the week the gelding may be (some way?) ahead of the handicapper. This race hasn't proved a happy hunting ground for Irish runners over the years.

American is talented, fragile and has few miles on the clock. This race has been the target for some considerable time, as it has been for Label Des Obeaux. In the Weekender Alan King states:

"My fear is that he has too much weight. Smad Place [2015 winner] was handily treated, whereas Label Des Obeaux doesn't look handicapped to win a race like this.

"We have to try and find some improvement in him, so we schooled him in cheekpieces the other day. They seemed to sharpen him up and he'll probably wear those on Saturday."

Of Nicky Henderson's pair I prefer Vyta Du Roc, sixth last year off 143, starting off 140 here and well backed, to stablemate Whisper. The latter was rated 164 behind Thistlecrack in the 2016 World Hurdle but earned a chase rating of 157 when beating Clan Des Obeaux in a match at Kempton 19 days ago; all three of his chase wins have come at distances between two mile four and two mile five furlongs.

It would be no surprise to see Singlefarmpayment in the mix; he was beaten four lengths by Cogry last time conceding 13 pounds. With Jamie Balgary's three pound claim aboard Cogry, Tom George's charge has to concede 11 pounds tomorrow so they appear more closely matched than the bookmakers' prices might indicate.

You pays your money and takes your choice.

Former Gold Cup winner Coneygree (16/1 one fifth the odds six places with Betfair) and Cogry catch the eye from a value perspective but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in the Alan King trained Label Des Obeaux, placed in seven of his nine chase starts to date.

He's currently priced up 33/1 with Betfair who pay a fifth the odds six places; William Hill offer 25/1 a fifth the odds seven places.

You pays your money and takes your choice - I'm with Betfair.


Anonymous said...

The going on the chase course at Newbury is now Good to Soft (going stick has moved from 5.8 on Friday to 5.9 this morning).

Label Des Obeaux is a very consistent performer and it is easy to see him running another big race. One negative might be that he is normally held up and Timeform’s Simon Rowlands [in his free Rowley File feature] has highlighted that horses that race more prominently in this race have traditionally fared well.

My system output has suggested that American and Singlefarmpayment hold leading chances but are priced accordingly so I’ll side with the longshot the system highlighted.

Braqueur D’Or, who will appreciate the word soft disappearing from the going forecast, has been on the go all summer and won easily off a mark of 129 at Ludlow in October before running well off today’s mark of 139 in the Sodex Gold Cup early in November. I was taken by the way he finished his race that day and as a 6yo I’m hoping he has a little more to give. I’d have liked Bryony Frost in the saddle claiming her 5lb but at odds of up to 40/1 I’m happy to take a chance. I’ve erred on the side of caution and took 33/1 with Skybet (7 places 1/5 odds).

System ratings to follow.

Good luck


Anonymous said...

Timeform free race so I've again included their ratings.


Timeform,TW RTG,Horse,Win Chance (%)
176,180,BRAQUEUR D'OR(FR),10.57
175,180,PRESENT MAN(IRE),7.17
174,176,POTTERS LEGEND(GB),4.36
174,173,A GENIE IN ABOTTLE(IRE),4.23
174,178,VYTA DU ROC(FR),4.1
172,175,LABEL DES OBEAUX(FR),3.96
175,179,DOUBLE ROSS(IRE),3.83
174,176,CAROLE'S DESTRIER(GB),3.17
181,172,TOTAL RECALL(IRE),2.54
169$,171,PILGRIMS BAY(IRE),1.64
171,171,REGAL ENCORE(IRE),1.62


GeeDee said...

Good luck, TW.

I note RP ratings have Vyta Du Roc on 176 and then a clutch of horses, including Braqueur D'Or, on 175.

GeeDee said...

A thrilling finish to the Ladbrokes Trophy with Paul Townend getting Total Recall (9/2f) up to beat Whisper (8/1) a neck on the line and so become the first Irish-trained winner for 37 years.

They went hard up front from the off. They say it's the hope that kills you - well, there wasn't too much hope with selection Label Des Obeaux (33/1) who was taken off his feet at the start. His chance had effectively disappeared after the first flight; racing last, he struggled to keep tabs on the field and was pulled up after the sixteenth. David Mullins replaced regular pilot Wayne Hutchinson who was stood down after unseating from Different Gravey in the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Chase.

In marked contrast TW's highlighted selection Braqueur D'Or (33/1) ran a fine race, staying on stoutly up the long home straight to claim fourth behind Regal Encore (66/1) in third.

Pilgrims Bay (33/1) finished fifth, Missed Approach sixth (20/1) and Potters Legend (20/1) seventh.

Anonymous said...

One post-race thought on the generally consistent Label Des Obeaux. His record in races with 20+ runners now reads: pulled up, beaten 47 lengths and beaten 24 lengths.

Perhaps he does not suit this type of race and there may be a bit of value when next time he runs in decent small field event?

Timeform top-rated the winner again.


GeeDee said...


You called it right with your pre-race observations on a hold-up horse in this race. I'll also check to see if Alan King's column in Wednesday's Weekender sheds any light on the run.


GeeDee said...

From Alan King's column in the Weekender 06-10.12.17:

"Label Des Obeaux missed the break in the Ladbrokes Trophy and his race was over; we knew our fate after one fence.

It didn't help having a complete stranger on. That's no disrespect to David Mullins, who came in for the ride when Wayne [Hutchinson] was hurt, but this is a horse who wants knowing. He's also too high in the weights."