Cold comfort

As a belated Father's Day present, a few weeks ago I was given tickets to tomorrow's Classic Chase meeting at Warwick; unfortunately that particular avenue of enjoyment has been scuppered by the cold weather -  along with the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle Day meeting at Kempton and the William Hill Medieval Raceday at Wetherby.

The feature from the Wetherby card, the Towton Novices' Chase, has been expeditiously transferred to the replacement meeting at Ffos Las which still has to pass an inspection tomorrow morning. 

The Met Office reports overnight temperatures at the Welsh track will remain above freezing while an update on Turftrax indicates the course was 'raceable' at 11.30 this morning.

Nonetheless, such is my disappointment at the abandonment of the Warwick fixture, I can barely summon the strength required to open a form book, never mind identify an each-way wager that makes any appeal.

Rosscahill and One Big Bang dominate the market for the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle (2.58). 

The former looked beaten after the last last time but stayed on powerfully to deny Ben Solo and tries this new trip on his first run in a handicap; the latter, second behind Shoot First at Haydock on his penultimate start, looked held on 127 at Cheltenham - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Soft ground at Ffos Las saps like nowhere else - Rosscahill, Mahland, Up For Parol, Stolen Silver, Balkardy, and Classic Concorde have all previously won at the track.

Mel Rowley's team are in good form but the price about Mahland has disappeared.

Stolen Silver, rated 154 over fences, goes off 141 and held five day entries for the Lanzarote and the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This looks less competitive but the Sam Thomas trained grey jumped the Aintree hurdles as though they were fences nine weeks ago.

Up For Parol held the same five day entries as Stolen Silver, with the Lanzarote the probable target, Jamie Snowden's charge having finished sixth, third and thirteenth in the last three renewals of the Kempton showpiece.

On seasonal debut Up For Parol came home second, 18 lengths behind runaway winner Henri The Second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Sandown five weeks ago, with West To The Bridge a further 11 lengths adrift in fourth.

Classic Concorde finished ninth behind Val Dancer in the Welsh National last time but is rated six pounds higher over hurdles.

Madaket is reported to have schooled well over fences; Micheal Nolan reported the gelding 'stopped quickly' in a Chepstow handicap hurdle 15 days ago. 

Alan De Banks and Balkardy both race from out of the handicap. 

The former makes his handicap debut for a yard that hasn't sent out a winner for 61 days while the latter has struggled over the larger obstacles. Handler Evan Williams recently said of his charge [RP Weekender Straight from the Stable 26-30.12.24]:

"He's not very big and fences get in his way sometimes, but he's very genuine. He's a joy to have around the place and I hope he can carry on giving a good account of himself."

When I learnt of the replacement activity organised as a substitute for my Father's Day trip to the Warwick races, any enthusiasm I might have mustered for a Ffos Las fancy sapped straight out of my shoes - a walk around Kenilworth's Castle & Abbey Trail.

I'll keep my powder dry for another day. 

Ascot's Bateaux London Gold Cup 2022

Following trips to Ludlow and Worcester - and a few ill-advised flirtations with the Flat - I've returned from my summer recess a little later than intended, distracted somewhat by the ongoing political brouhaha; to quote Alice Thompson using a Carrie Fisher quotation in The Times on Wednesday: 

'"Things are getting worse faster than I can lower my standards."'

Thirteen have been declared for the Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot tomorrow (3.15) where the going is currently good to soft.

Major Dundee, a fine third in the Scottish National at Ayr last time out, was chalked up favourite earlier in the week; trainer Alan King has said:

"I am also pleased how well Major Dundee did through the summer. He has strengthened up but needs a race before his first major target, the Coral Gold Cup [formerly the Hennessy], after which he could go to Warwick for the Classic Chase and possibly have a second trip to Ayr for the Scottish National."

To date Major Dundee has contested just two of his 13 starts at right-handed tracks (Ludlow and Kempton) and was well beaten on both occasions.

Earlier this afternoon Our Power joined Major Dundee at the head of the market. 

Most of his chase form is around two and a half miles; on a first attempt at three miles last February he finished third behind Cap Du Nord and Kitty's Light in the Coral Trophy at Kempton (Good Boy Bobby seventh and Annsam pulled up). Sam Thomas' charge subsequently finished fifth behind Corach Rambler in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival (Tea Clipper fourth, Full Back thirteenth and Rapper eighteenth), appearing to lose his pitch two out. To my mind Ascot's stiff uphill finish isn't going to help the cause.

Tea Clipper has yet to win over three miles. Last time out at Chepstow three weeks ago, he was headed on the run-in by Peregrine Run over a trip of two miles seven and a half furlongs (Kitty's Light sixth).

Up The Straight tries this trip for the first time under rules and the majority of Danny Kirwan's form is also around the two and a half mile mark but, by way of contrast, Annsam is a course and distance winner. 

Evan Williams has his team in fine form; here's what he had to say about Annsam in a recent Racing Post stable tour:

"I'd like to get a run under Annsam's belt quietly to blow the cobwebs away as he's a big, raw, strong horse. He's in a race at Ascot on Saturday but I'm not in love with going there. That said, he'll need a run because if he's too fresh he can be very, very bullish. He lost all chance when making a terrible early mistake in the old Racing Post Chase [Coral Trophy] last season but that was because I left him too fresh. He could be a horse, if he progresses, for the Coral Gold Cup or Grand National. He's lovely, still young and raw, but with a bit of luck I wouldn't rule out those good races. He's definitely got the ability."

The last time Full Back appeared at Ascot he didn't jump well behind Remastered in the Reynoldstown but the stable has a good recent record in this event, having won with Antony (2016), Traffic Fluide (2018) and Larry (2021). 

There's a suspicion top weight Good Boy Bobby prefers racing left-handed; in the past ten years only Traffic Fluide has carried more than 11-3 to victory.

Regal Encore loves this track and won the 2020 renewal off 145 - with Mister Malarky a distant sixth. 

Anthony Honeyball's charge is a credit to connections and goes off 136 this time - just two months shy of his fifteenth birthday. 

Mister Malarky, a course and distance winner with a mind of his own, was a distant fifth behind Larry last year but has appeared a tad more tractable on two appearances for new connections. His chance wouldn't be dismissed if in the mood.

Poppa Poutine has won at the trip and had a pipe opener at Perth five weeks ago. He likes to race up with the pace but faces a stiff enough task.

Kitty's Light is only six years old but ran some brave races in defeat last season. 

Not the biggest of individuals, he is generally given a hold-up ride in an attempt to avoid early scrimmaging and then allowed to work his way into a race. 

The first part of that plan was carried out to perfection at Chepstow three weeks ago behind Peregrine Run but, unfortunately, the second part failed to materialise completely - Christian Williams' charge was beaten some 40 lengths. The handicapper relented (somewhat) and dropped him two pounds to a mark of 142.

Searching for an elusive each-way wager, two make the short list - Full Back and Kitty's Light.

At the time of writing the former is generally a 9/1 chance while layers quote Kitty's Light 11/1 (five places) and 12/1 (four places).

I'm hoping that Chepstow run three weeks ago has blown away the cobwebs. 

Kitty's Light is the each-way suggestion, 11/1 with Sky who are paying one fifth the odds five places. 

And a frustrating footnote to finish on. Sam Brown appears overpriced at 25/1 in the Charlie Hall; unfortunately there are only five runners...

Boxing Day dilemmas

Tis the afternoon of the night before Christmas and the form books lie still...

No traditional Christmas Day post this year; here's an insight into the cogitations likely to be to the forefront of my mind while pulling the Christmas crackers.

An intriguing renewal of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, a race that doesn't make an awful lot of appeal from a punting perspective. 

After inflicting defeat on Altior for the first time, Cyrname turned up a short priced favourite for last year's running but flopped badly, stablemate Clan Des Obeaux taking full advantage; Cyrname has been campaigned differently this term and on official ratings is the one to beat. 

The Henderson camp has stumped up the £5,000 fee required to supplement Santini; connections have done their sums and calculated that a profit will be realised if their charge finishes in the first five. 

Lostintranslation didn't shine in the race last year and underwent wind surgery immediately afterwards. A fine third in the Gold Cup in March, he disappointed in the Betfair Chase at Haydock; Robbie Power thinks his ride is better on better ground.

The Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby 2.05) has piqued interest, primarily because only three of the nine declared have shown noteworthy form over three miles or further: Snow Leopardess (the grey mare raised nine pounds after catching Commodore on the line at Haydock five weeks ago); Wandrin Star (raised four pounds after finishing a neck behind Quarenta at Ascot); and The Dutchman (raised five pounds after being caught on the line at Haydock last time). 

To date Canelo has been well beaten on two previous attempts at the trip but trainer Alan King thinks this step back up will suit. 

Windsor Avenue appears to have prompted a difference of opinion with Paddy Power offering 7/1 while William Hill go 10/1; the gelding is not lightly dismissed. Brian Ellison's charge underwent wind surgery in January and has been given plenty of time to recover. His chance in the Caspian Caviar at Cheltenham last time disappeared at the start and that effort is forgiven. Quoting Ellison in a 'Straight from the Stable' feature in the Weekender 30.09.20 - 04.10.20:

'If you could see his work at home it screams out class and the work last week was very impressive. He should get three miles...'

Stablemate Definitly Red won the 2016 running off 141.

This time last year, following Not So Sleepy's nine length victory in the Betfair Exchange Trophy, I highlighted the chance of Hughie Morrison's three runners at Wincanton. Two of the three obliged, with Supamouse winning the concluding bumper 14 lengths. Talk immediately afterwards was of the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham but tragedy struck the following day when it was discovered the gelding had suffered a perforated intestine and couldn't be saved. 

Twelve months on and Not So Sleepy has won the 2020 renewal of the Betfair Exchange Trophy at odds of 20/1 - for the record, carrying none of my money. 

Updated figures for the stable's jumps runners read:

Season to date: 1 win from 11 runs (9%); +10 points profit

Last five years: 23 wins from 114 runs (20%); +47.25 points profit

The yard has declared the unraced Scanning in this year's Wincanton bumper (3.50). The following rhetorical question is asked in stentorian, overemphasised, John McCririck-like tones:

Has renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison been hatching a plot? 

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

An each-way chance in the 2020 Sodexo Gold Cup

For starters, I thought I'd bring to your attention a recent analysis of starting prices compiled by the Horseracing Bettors Forum (HBF) which concludes that, since racing returned after lockdown on 1st June 2020, 'there has been a reduction in the price of horses at the head of the market and an increase in the price of outsiders'. Interesting.

The pre-race chatter surrounding tomorrow's Charlie Hall Chase (Wetherby 3.20) is whether Cyrname can win on his first attempt going left-handed over a trip of three miles. Connections seem confident - and why not? On official ratings Cyrname is 13 pounds clear of his nearest rival, last year's winner Ballyoptic. Paul Nicholls has indicated the forecast rain won't be a problem but points out that the only thing different from his seasonal debut last year - when he memorably beat Altior over two miles five at Ascot - is that the gelding hasn't had a racecourse gallop. 

All that said, Kim Bailey's charge Vinndication, a 5/1 chance on Thursday, is 9/4 clear favourite with several layers this evening. The yard is in fine form and the trainer is hoping he has a Gold Cup horse on his hands...

Sam Spinner is unbeaten over fences but anyone who saw his third and most recent win - in a three-runner novice chase at Doncaster in December - will know Jedd O'Keefe's charge threw jockey Joe Colliver up into the air six from home and the partnership was extremely lucky to survive. A fracture to the gelding's pelvis was subsequently discovered; Sam returns to the track tomorrow and it's no surprise to see his price on the drift.

This year's renewal has more depth than recent runnings. 

Ballyoptic and Definitly Red both bid to become the first horse since Ollie Magern to win the race twice (2005, 2007); the last horse older than nine to come home in front was Grey Abbey in 2004.

Of the bigger priced runners Aye Right is one I like and his second behind Nuts Well over an inadequate trip at Kelso 27 days ago reads well, given the winner picked up the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last Sunday. He's a 20/1 chance with bet365 but I'm struggling to see Harriet Graham's stable star making a place in this company.

With Cyrname and Vinndication taking their chance at Wetherby, the make-up of the Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Ascot 3.40) has changed markedly. 

Black Corton, third in this race last year behind Vinndication, tries again from a mark two pounds lower having undergone wind surgery over the summer. Mister Malarky beat Black Corton (Whatmore fourth, Adrien Du Pont sixth) in the Betway Handicap Chase at Kempton in February but in the past fortnight Team Tizzard has recorded just one win from 32 runs.

Connections of Walk In The Mill are probably using this as a prep for the Becher Chase while nobody can be really sure what Might Bite might get up to.

Of the two current market leaders Henry Daly (Whatmore) has his horses in fine fettle with a 30% win strike over the past 14 days but Chris Gordon (Commanche Red) is 1 win from 16 runs.

Near the foot of the weights I'm going to take a chance on Andrew Martin's Militarian who won this on his seasonal debut last year at odds of 50/1; he tries again from a mark one pound higher. This looks a more competitive renewal and, unfortunately, those bookmaker chappies aren't offering such fancy prices either but Shane Quinlan helps the cause by claiming five pounds. 

Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are paying five places in this race and, at the time of writing, Paddy Power offer 16/1. 

Militarian is the each-way suggestion.

To finish, two quick, eclectic pieces of form...

In the listed mares' hurdle at Wetherby (2.10) Verdana Blue is priced a 1/2 chance yet her performance at Kempton 13 days ago was disappointing. That day Silver Streak recorded a time of 3m 39.04s when beating the Nicky Henderson trained mare six and a half lengths over a trip of two miles. An hour earlier Mrs Hyde had won the Racing TV Novices' Hurdle over the same trip in a time of 3m 39.17s; Brian Ellison's charge is now as low as 11/1, having been 20/1 earlier in the week. I feel both mares are likely to be inconvenienced by the forecast rain.

In the Scottish Champion Hurdle Trial (Ayr 3.27) Faire Part Sivola, wearing first-time cheekpieces for new connections, looks overpriced at 11/1, beaten a head by Calva D'Auge at Wincanton in January when under the tutelage of Nick Williams. 

Christmas wishes for 2019

The blow-up beds have been deflated and salient family members shoved out the front door and up the road to church.

Fair play to the parish priest too - he's ever eager to play the part of pantomime villain by further elongating an already elongated religious celebration.

The Christmas Day post is never an easy post to write - looking to offer some small crumb of hope and comfort to those forced to spend the day with relatives they wished were a lot further away than they actually are. And then Auntie Betty drops her false teeth into the trifle.

Six cards (Huntingdon abandoned) to analyse before salient family members return - an impossible task, even with the initial spadework carried out last night.

The trouble is this year I think I might have chanced on something that might have half a chance.

The King George and Christmas Hurdle at Kempton promise some fascinating clashes but I won't be having a bet in either; Commanche Red can be given an each-way shout in the 1.20 on the back of  his third behind Nube Negra and his third behind Reserve Tank.

Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick Chase (2.10) will prove informative and Zerachiel - with seven pound claimer Charlie Todd in the plate - can be given every chance in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (2.15) on the back of his second place in this race last year.

I'm off to Wincanton though where Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow.

But what's this? Fresh from pulling off a stunning victory with Not So Sleepy at Ascot on Saturday, renowned Flat trainer Hughie Morrison sends *three* runners to the track - Urban Artist (12.55); Third Wind (1.25) and Supamouse (3.45).

The stable's updated figures with their jump runners after Not So Sleepy's win now read:

Season to date: 4 wins from 9 runs (44%); +23.50 points profit
Last five years: 23 wins from 116 runs (20%); +34.29 points profit

A 1 point each-way patent (outlay 14 points) returns 430 points (using prices quoted today as a guide) in the admittedly unlikely event Mr Morrison's three runners win.

Now, we all know it's been a bumpy year but at least there's something to distract you from Uncle Albert's political ramblings over the Christmas turkey...

With best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

The trouble with Christmas...

The trouble with Christmas - there are simply too many distractions and as a consequence one's form study suffers.

A couple of each-way Boxing Day longshots I'm going to mull over during Christmas dinner...

Double Shuffle (40/1) in a vintage renewal of of the King George (3.05 Kempton) on the back of his one length second to Might Bite in last year's race.

Allyson Monterg (11/1) in the Rowland Meyrick (2.10 Wetherby). Just eight declared and they'd all need to start for the bookies to pay three places but 14/1 has long since disappeared. Was pulled up behind Presenting Percy in the RSA and came home seventh beaten a long way by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy. I note that in the past decade all winners have been aged either seven or eight apart form According To Pete in 2011 and that in the same timeframe only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Cape Tribulation (2012) and Dolatulo (2014); Captain Chaos and Crosspark fit the required profile.

Food for thought.

Very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

Walter Sickert, Laurence Robertson and an each-way chance at the Ascot races...

Samcro suffered a shock defeat over in Ireland earlier today and, unfortunately, there just hasn't been enough rain around Wetherby with the result that both Thistlecrack and Bristol De Mai never made the final declaration stage for tomorrow's Charlie Hall Chase (2.40); Regal Encore has since been declared a non-runner.

At the time of writing there are four left standing - Black Corton, Double Shuffle, Definitly Red and Virgilio. The going at the Yorkshire track was changed from good to good, good to firm in places after the second race on today's card.

Over at Ascot I've concentrated on the listed 'Bet With Ascot Handicap Hurdle' (3.00) for which nine have been declared.

Market leader Global Citizen makes his seasonal debut here and was impressive winning the Dovecote at Kempton in February, eased-down to finish nine lengths ahead of Scarlet Dragon (beaten four and a half lengths into third in the Group 3 St Simon Stakes at Newbury last Saturday).

Magic Dancer was sent off  9/2 favourite for what looked a competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last Friday. In the event Kerry Lee's charge was beaten by very easy winner Storm Rising who went in again this afternoon running off the same mark at odds of 2/5f (Wetherby 3.40).

Simply The Betts first came to my attention in the Supreme Scottish Trial Novices' Hurdle at Musselburgh, beaten a neck by Beyond The Clouds with Claimantakinforgan adrift in third (although Nicky Henderson's charge didn't run his race that day).  Simply went on to finish tenth in the Supreme at Cheltenham and has blown away any cobwebs with victory at Hexham three weeks ago; his chance is respected.

Sent off favourite for the 2017 Fred Winter, Divin Bere was beaten a neck into second by Flying Tiger. He subsequently finished second to Defi Du Seuil at Aintree but last season was something of a write-off - he finished well down the field at this track in the Grade 3 Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle (formerly the Ladbroke) and was then pulled up in both the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.

After a wind operation Paul Nicholls' charge returned to the track to win a handicap on the Flat at Bath two and a half weeks ago, finishing one and a half lengths ahead of Walter Sickert (the artist forever associated with 'The Camden Town Murder'). This one is bang there if back to his very best and is joint top-rated with Magic Dancer on Racing Post ratings.

In the current edition of the Weekender Alan King appears a tad lukewarm about Fidux and is contemplating chasing (although the handler admits 'he's not the biggest'):

"He'd been dropped a bit in the weights [before his Southwell win], but he's back up to 135 so he won't find it easy."

This looks a tough ask for four-year-old Sussex Ranger but Nicky Richards' Caius Marcius is of interest. His latest defeat of Theclockisticking by 11 lengths in a listed event at Market Rasen reads well; in the Weekender Stable Tour 17-21.10.18 the handler said:

"He's gone up 13lb for that, which I think is a bit harsh, so he'll have to progress again, but I think there's more to come and the handicapper doesn't often get it wrong."  

The stats show that no horse older than six has won this race in the past ten years so as a seven-year-old Caius Marcius doesn't have the perfect profile but at 12/1 with both Paddy Power and Betfair at the time of writing Caius Marcius is the each-way selection.

On the same card I'll watch Amour De Nuit in the 1.50 and Fubar and Emitom in the concluding bumper.

I saw Amour De Nuit win a match at Ludlow last week with the absolute minimum of fuss and the race here should be run to suit while Fubar looked unlucky the last day when slipping up but still managing to finish second.

The layers appear to have factored that in to their price but Kim Bailey's charge is unlikely to have things all his own way going by Warren Greatrex's opinion of Emitom on the Sporting Life website:

"He's won his only outing in a Warwick bumper back in April. It didn't come as a huge shock to us as he'd been showing all the right signs at home and he travelled really well.

The form isn't much to write home about but he won pretty well and if we've got a novice hurdler that could go to the top then it might just be him.

Put it this way, he's in Cole Harden's box so he's obviously got a lot to live up to!"

Finally, I don't know about you but I've never really been tempted to take a gamble on a career in politics, what with Brexit and all that sort of stuff. That was until I heard that Tewkesbury MP Laurence Robertson had received £7,433 worth of free tickets, all for horse racing events.

Hmmmm...

Slow Horses

I'm currently reading Mick Herron's Slow Horses, a copy of which I received as a birthday present. The tale centres around a bunch of MI5 misfits who have displayed varying degrees of incompetence in the field and as a result have been kicked into the long grass and left there to fester.

Plagued by self-doubt, I simply had to ask Mrs Tips whether this choice of text had been in any way influenced by my own career to date.

'Oh, you bet,' came the immediate reply, 'that, along with the tips you tend to give out on your blog.'

Acerbic. Here are a couple of slow selections for tomorrow.

The Charlie Hall Chase (3.15) is the highlight on the Wetherby card. Race conditions certainly favour the talented but fragile Coneygree; layers have priced up Mark Bradstock's charge favourite although the handler is keen to point out the gelding will come on for the run and is a little heavier than ideal.

Colin Tizzard reports Cue Card in fine fettle; this remarkable horse turns 12 on January 1st.

Several in the field appear to be using this as a stepping stone. Bristol De Mai has the Betfair Chase at Haydock as his target while Blaklion and Vieux Lion Rouge are being aimed at the Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly the Hennessy).

Definitly Red looked good winning the Rowland Meryck over course and distance on Boxing Day but I've never been totally convinced by his jumping.

Village Vic took a crashing fall at Chepstow three weeks ago in the race in which Double Shuffle finished second; at 33/1 with Paddy Power Tom George's charge looks the most interesting of the potential improvers but I'll watch this one from the sidelines.

The official going at Ascot is currently described as good.

Eleven go over two miles one in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase at 2.25 but only three have run recently - favourite Marracudja, Little Pop (kept busy over the summer) and Exitas.

Theinval and Calipto finished third and sixth respectively behind Rock The World in the Grand Annual with last year's winner Quite By Chance down the field in thirteenth - Colin Tizzard's charge tries this time off a mark nine pounds higher.

Spreredek has shown most of his form on soft ground so I'll take an each-way interest in Somchine who finished third behind Vaniteux and Romain De Senam at Ayr in April. He has made the frame in 15 of his 21 chase starts and is currently a 12/1 chance.

Dolos runs in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 3.00 and is a horse I like. He has performed well at this track previously and Stan Sheppard claims three; that said, he's probably a little too high in the handicap at present and four-year-olds don't have the best record in this event.

I'm interested in Ben Pauling's High Bridge who has won three of his four starts over hurdles and finished ninth in the Supreme last March - the trainer's comments in the Weekender (25-29.10.17) are illuminating:

"He wasn't really himself for various reasons that day and it was possibly my fault for giving Alex [Ferguson] the wrong instructions. He looks fabulous after his summer holiday..."

Alex rides tomorrow and takes off seven; at the time of writing High Bridge is best-priced 14/1 with Sky Bet and is worth an each-way wager in a competitive event. The good ground will suit; connections intend to go for the Gerry Feilden after this...

Boxing Day blues

A little like Victor Meldrew I feel I must be getting old and miserable because the Boxing Day cards have just failed to inspire.

In years gone by, driven to distraction by the family Christmas, I've attended Newton Abbot and Towcester races on St Stephen's Day but unfortunately those fixtures no longer form part of the racing calendar.

The withdrawal of Coneygree has paved the way for Thistlecrack to take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. A fascinating race in prospect, agreed, but with just five runners it's one to savour rather than bet on. The meagre turnout for this showpiece event is likely to be seen as something of an embarrassment in certain quarters.

A similarly small field is assured for Kempton's Christmas Hurdle where Sam Twiston-Davies will want to try and make all aboard The New One. Richard Harper has declared Gray Wolf River, rated some 104 pounds lower than The New One, in the hope of collecting place prize money; some layers have quoted odds of 5,000/1.

Hennessy form should come in handy in the next few days with Blaklion and Henri Parry Morgan declared for Monday's Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby while Native River, Carole's Destrier, Vyta Du Roc and Theatre Guide all hold entries for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday.

On form Blaklion looks the one to beat at Wetherby but after his fifth in the Hennessy pilot Ryan Hatch reported his charge had 'cut out' up the long home straight and connections were likely to consider a breathing operation...

Previous Welsh National winners Mountainous and Emperor's Choice will probably try to repeat the trick on Tuesday but, provided the going doesn't dry out too much, I'll take an each-way interest in Firebird Flyer.

Second in last year's race, Evan Williams' charge went on to win the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March and had a reasonable prep on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month. He starts from a mark eight pounds higher this time.

Looking slightly further ahead, ITV commences its racing coverage at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Richard Hoiles is the new lead commentator; I know I'm going to miss Simon Holt.

Happy Christmas!

Ascot's Sodexo Gold Cup 2016

A feature of this week has been the mixed messages coming from connections of Saphir Du Rheu, with owner Andy Stewart appearing to indicate the gelding was set to make his seasonal debut in Wetherby's West Yorkshire Hurdle while trainer Paul Nicholls favoured the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot; the horse also held an entry for the Charlie Hall Chase.

Saphir goes to Ascot tomorrow (3.35) where the going is officially good, good to firm in places.

In the Weekender Andrew King writes:

'...and [Saphir Du Rheu] has looked a different horse in his work at Manor Farm so far this autumn.'

I've never really been convinced by Saphir's jumping over fences - last year's Hennessy effort sticks in the mind - and all his chase wins to date have come in fields with less than ten runners.

Feltham winner Tea For Two looks short enough in the market even with Lizzie Kelly's five pound claim while Voix D'Eau ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow but isn't guaranteed to stay the trip.

In the past ten years only three horses have carried more than 11-0 to victory: Roll Along (2008), Massini's Maguire (2010) and Houblon Des Obeaux (2013); in the same timeframe no horse has won carrying more than 11-03.

Two trainers in fine form at the moment are Colin Tizzard and Tom George with win strike rates for the season of 16.05% and 19.78% respectively.

Three weeks ago Buckhorn Timothy looked to have made progress when second at Chepstow behind Potters Cross, holding A Good Skin one and threequarter lengths (Killala Quay pulled up). Rivalry is renewed tomorrow with A Good Skin, second in the Kim Muir at the Festival in March, three pounds better off. The form was given a further boost yesterday when fifth Buachaill Alainn turned out to take the Durham National at Sedgefield.

The pair look closely matched. A Good Skin, best-priced 15/2 with Stan James at the time of writing, has the better form in the book but I am tempted by the 12/1 on offer about Colin Tizzard's inmate.

A Good Skin is the selection.

Over at Wetherby Cue Card is the one to beat in the Charlie Hall but the race makes little appeal as a betting medium while the preceding West Yorkshire Hurdle should prove informative but looks particularly trappy beforehand.

After a visit to Robin Dickin's yard last week I note the stable has two entries over the weekend - Thomas Crapper in the opener at Ascot and Dontminddboys in the 2.10 at Carlisle on Sunday.

Thomas was well behind over the smaller obstacles in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow three weeks ago where Crimson Ark finished second to Ballyoptic; I think this is probably the last chance Thomas has to race as a novice. On ratings the top five are closely matched; with Crimson Ark making his chase debut, Remind Me Later having his third chase start and San Benedeto his fourth, at around 12/1 Robin Dickin's inmate is probably overpriced.

Dontminddboys is a tall, striking grey who certainly caught my eye - a chaser in the making. He returns to action in a novices' handicap hurdle following a long lay-off through injury.

And finally, just in case you missed it, my old friend Johnny Og (PG's Tips, passim) scored at odds of 11/2 on his seasonal debut at Stratford yesterday...

Heavy going for the Ffos Las feature

I'm considering a wager in the West Wales National at Ffos Las tomorrow (3.15) but at the back of my mind I can hear Sir Anthony McCoy OBE saying something along the lines of  'there's heavy and there's Ffos Las heavy'.

And the weather forecast looks decidedly grim too.

Rebecca Curtis fields four of the seven declared; last year her Bob Ford finished in splendid isolation to collect the spoils at odds of 16/1 with eight of the nine opponents failing to complete.

There are some notable differences to take into account for this year's renewal: Bob Ford is set to carry top weight and is currently priced up favourite; the gelding looked to have a hard enough race and had probably come to the end of his tether when falling four out in the Welsh National at Chepstow last month; the distance of the race has been shortened by three furlongs.

Stablemate Red Devil Lads doesn't jump well enough for my liking while Audacious Plan would prefer better ground (and has the Kim Muir as his target) which suggests connections may consider Minella On Line their best chance of a repeat victory.
    
Cogry failed to fire when sent off favourite for the Welsh National; if you can forgive that particular effort, he has form in the book - his two and a quarter lengths fourth to Sausalito Sunrise at the Cheltenham Open meeting catches the eye. He has won on heavy ground before - but this is Ffos Las heavy. And he did appear to get stuck in the mud last time... 

5/1 Minella On Line is tempting but Jamie Bargary can claim five on Cogry; Cogry (3/1) is given another chance.

It's unusual to see two top-notch novice chases within twenty minutes of one another. On paper Sandown's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.25) looks between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai but the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby (2.45) is a far more open affair.

Definitly Red did well to finish so close to Black Hercules at Warwick the last day as he was persistently out-jumped by the winner. Blaklion is a horse I like who will be suited by the step back up to three miles here but Native River was slightly disappointing behind Tea For Two in the Feltham - connections felt Kempton's right-handed track didn't suit their charge. Harry Fry's mare Bitofapuzzle fell last time over in Ireland but poses a serious threat to all.

Back going left-handed, Native River (7/2) is the selection.   

From Warwick to Wetherby

The best card of the year at Warwick, my local track, is subject to an 8.00 am inspection tomorrow; frost covers have been deployed and course officials are confident the meeting will go ahead.

As I won't be racing tomorrow I confess haven't done much prep work.

The Classic Chase (3.35) looks as open as ever with the field containing a number of runners who like to race prominently.

The Leamington Hurdle (3.00) is intriguing. Willie Mullins sends over two to challenge course and distance winner Born Survivor. The Weekender reports Dan Skelton's charge 'the best novice hurdler in the yard' so it's no surprise to see this locally-trained gelding head the market.

Skelton, who can boast a strike-rate of over 20% this season, plundered the spoils last year with Three Musketeers and is clearly expected to repeat the trick this year.

Of the Mullins pair, slight preference would be for Open Eagle but seven-year olds don't have a good record in this race and both Irish runners have to concede three pounds to the favourite on heavy ground.

While browsing the entries I was struck by the fact that Aidan Coleman has decided to ride at Wetherby tomorrow.

Venetia Williams has five runners at Warwick - Polo (12.40), Vivaccio (1.15), Rigadin De Beauchene (3.35 - regularly ridden by Robbie Dunne), Houblon Des Obeaux (3.35) and Opera Rock (4.05) - but sends just two up north to Wetherby - Gardefort (2.05) and Azert De Coeur (3,15).

Both are of interest.

Gardefort was third in the same race last year but remains unexposed racing off a mark three pounds lower while Azert De Coeur's fourth behind Cloonacool at Ludlow last time reads well enough in this lower grade event.

Two selections:
Gardefort (9/2) 2.05 Wetherby;
Azert De Coeur (5/1) 3.15 Wetherby. 

The Charlie Hall Chase 2015

Personally I've never felt the Charlie Hall a particularly lucky race; out of interest I looked up the blog's selections for this Wetherby showpiece from 2006 onwards.

The list makes for slightly better reading than I'd anticipated - seven selections, two winners and a profit of 3.5 points:

2006 No selection;
2007 State Of Play 15/8f, Second;
2008 State Of Play 5/2f, Wins;
2009 Ollie Magern 85/40, Third;
2010 Nacarat 6/1, Wins;
2011 Time For Rupert 11/8f, Second;
2012 Planet Of Sound 5/1, Fifth;
2013 Benefficient 8/1, Fourth;
2014 No selection.

Seven go to post for this year's renewal which has a particularly open feel to it. In the past ten years the favourite has obliged on three occasions but only two have carried 11-10 to victory - Our Vic (2006) and Menorah (2014). In the same time period no horse older than nine has won.  

On official ratings Dynaste looks something of a shoo-in in receipt of ten pounds from the likes of Many Clouds, Menorah and Sam Winner.

Of course, that's only half the story. I've had my fingers burned more than once with David Pipe's charge in the past; the grey is the only one in the field to come to this with a recent run under the belt but, that said, it was a poor effort over hurdles in France. His optimum trip is probably around two and a half miles, a comment that also applies to market rival Cue Card.

Colin Tizzard's charge had his stamina limitations ruthlessly exposed in the 2013 running of the King George at Kempton when he was outstayed by Silviniaco Conti (Dynaste well beaten in fourth). He missed Cheltenham in March and underwent 'corrective surgery on a small wind problem' before finishing behind Don Cossack at Aintree and Punchestown, sporting first-time cheekpieces and a tongue-tie in Ireland. The cheekpieces are omitted tomorrow.

The arrival of the rain will inconvenience Holywell more than most. I bet this one each-way in the Gold Cup where he ran a fine race to finish fourth on ground officially described as soft.

Grand National winner Many Clouds and Sam Winner are likely to relish underfoot conditions - the former has the Hennessy as his target.

Ballynagour's head second to Silviniaco Conti in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April gives him every chance but I've never been convinced by Menorah's jumping.

Had the rain stayed away, Holywell was to be the selection but the runners obliged to concede weight now have to do so on soft ground.

I'll side with Cue Card, hoping the breathing operation in the spring has helped the cause; the stable won the opener on today's card with Royal Vacation.

An Ascot sensation?

Silviniaco Conti, the form choice for Wetherby's Charlie Hall at 3.15 , is priced accordingly and I'm fast running out of reasons to oppose.

So far this season Paul Nicholls' runners have tended to need their first outing but Silviniaco had a racecourse spin last week - connections see this race as a prep for Haydock's Betfair Chase in three weeks' time.

On official ratings Taquin Du Seuil, in receipt of five pounds, still has ten to find with the favourite while Menorah comes form a stable bang in form but has had his share of jumping problems in the past.

In the previous two renewals of this race Wayward Prince finished second (beaten 11 lengths by Silviniaco in 2012 and a  neck by Harry Topper last year) and would have made some appeal as an each-way wager had eight been declared...

In search of better value I've been drawn to Ascot's Byrne Group chase at 2.20.

Only nine go to post but the layers bet 4/1  the field.

Michael Scudamore's Next Sensation was well tipped up for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham in March and the gelding looked to have the spoils in the bag when three lengths clear at the last but he was headed in the final 100 yards and finished fourth, beaten a neck to third by Claret Cloak; the latter named finished down the field at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but is sure to have gained some benefit from the run.

Back in March Manyriverstocross beat Bellenos a short-head over course and distance - Alan King's charge is two pounds better off but Dan Skelton's six-year-old looks less exposed while course and distance winner Ulck Du Lin is not readily dismissed with Sean Bowen able to claim seven.

A tight handicap but I'm swayed by confidence shown by Michael Scudamore in midweek.

With the trainer's brother Tom in the plate, Next Sensation gets the nod (4/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power).       

Two staying chases for Saturday

This evening Tony McCoy is just eight winners short of 4,000 while just seven are declared for Wetherby's Charlie Hall which still has a typically trappy look to it.

On ratings Long Run has something in hand over the field with connections reporting their charge has come to hand earlier this year. That said, he hasn't won on his seasonal debut in the past three years (third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2010 followed by two consecutive seconds in Haydock's Betfair Chase) and there's always the possibility he'll throw in the odd howler on the way round. At the price he's worth taking on.

Plenty will fancy Unioniste to take advantage but the form of Paul Nicholls' stable is a concern. At Chepstow last Saturday a number of the stable's leading fancies fell by the wayside - Just A Par (4/7f) had no answer to Shotgun Paddy; Ceasar Milan (11/8f) trailed in last of the seven (was reported to have bled after the race); Virak (11/1) came home last (reported to have choked turning into the home straight); and Rebel Rebellion (7/4f) came home fifth of six (vet reported gelding had lost a near fore shoe). Since then the stable has recorded one win from 12 (Southfield Theatre [4/5f] at Wincanton on Sunday) while 1/3 favourite Vicente failed to see out his race on that same Wincanton card.

There wasn't much between Harry Topper and Benefficient in a Newbury novice last year but on official ratings the Irish horse looks to have the edge here and he has the added advantage of having had a run six weeks ago.

Cape Tribulation never troubled the principals in the Gold Cup last March finishing fifth (Long Run third) but previously had won the Rowland Meyrick over course and distance on Boxing Day and a month later had added the Argento Chase to the haul just for good measure.

At the time of writing Cape Tribulation is best-priced 7/1 and Benefficient 8/1 so Benefficient is put up as a value wager against the market leaders.

And moving swiftly on to Ascot's United House Gold Cup at 3.20...

Five weeks ago Emma Lavelle's Bouggler won a competitive-looking handicap chase at Market Rasen with head in chest. Out of that race Al Co has since won a Chepstow Class 2 handicap (12/1), Grandads Horse a Wetherby Class 3 handicap (2/1), Wiesentraum a Fakenham Class 3 handicap (7/1), Twirling Magnet a Class 2 Cheltenham novice (7/1) while Rob Conti, second at Market Rasen, has finished second behind Johns Spirit in another Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (16/1).

Granted, this represents a step up in class for Bouggler (as well as Al Co and Twirling Magnet who re-oppose), but the trainer states 'Bouggler is working as well now as he ever has so I hope there's another big chase prize in him.' Weekender 16-20.10.13, p.14.

In the Weekender Stable Tour the following week (23 - 27.10.13) Lavelle says of her charge:

'When you win at £50k handicap by four and a half lengths then you expect to be punished, so the 10lb rise was fair. However he had been dropped 4lb before then, so theoretically he is only 6lb worse of now and he has come out of it very well.'

Added to that, tomorrow's pilot G. Sheehan can claim another three pounds.

Of course, this an ultra-competitive event; the field contains several interesting youngsters including Opening Batsman, Buddy Bolero,Triolo D'Alene, Same Difference and Houblon Des Obeaux.

Over the past decade horses aged eight or older have tended to take the spoils so Bouggler is the selection and at 9/1 with Stan James can be backed each-way (a quarter the odds four places provided 16 start).

However I suspect this could just be a step too far for Al Co who has to come from right off the pace - after that Chepstow win, trainer Peter Bowen said 'The key to him is to wait, wait and then wait again. He also doesn't like to be crowded.' The question is - will he be close enough coming off the home turn to make up the ground?

Wetherby selections

The highlight on tomorrow's Wetherby card is the Charlie Hall Chase (3.25) with the world and his wife apparently tipping Paul Nicholls' Silviniaco Conti. The handler indicates it's not easy to judge how far forward his charge is but the market has something of a lop-sided look with the Nicholls horse quoted at 5/4 in most places. This hasn't been the best race for favourites in the past decade with just two obliging (Ollie Magern in 2005 and State Of Play in 2008) and on top of that I've always thought this gelding better at around two and a half miles. His record in chases at three miles or more is one win from three attempts (at Aintree); he weakened markedly up Ascot's stiff finish behind Invictus in the Reynoldstown last February although the yard wasn't firing at the time. I'm going to oppose on grounds of value. Of the others Time For Rupert ran second in last year's renewal but doesn't have the beating of Midnight Chase on official ratings. Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is best in at the weights but I've had my fingers burned with this one before. The yard has been in reasonable form of late - Hobbs trained the first three home in Chepstow's Silver Trophy last weekend so at 11/2 in places Planet Of Sound is put up as a value alternative to Silviniaco Conti. The more cautious could back both Time For Rupert (9/2) and Planet Of Sound (11/2) and avail themselves of a better price than is currently available about the favourite.

Restless Harry took last year's renewal of the John Smith's Hurdle (2.50) but looks to face a stiff task giving weight to all his rivals. In the past he hasn't always been the best of travellers so, if you're considering a wager, it would be worth checking how he has taken the preliminaries. Fair Along is another previous winner in the field while on ratings the 11 year-old Tidal Bay should come home in front. An intriguing race for sure with Smad Place being given every respect, but Cape Tribulation's second in a York handicap three weeks ago may mean he has a fitness edge over his opponents - Cape Tribulation (7/2 Betfred) is the selection.

The mares' listed hurdle (2.15) looks a close call between Une Artiste, Alasi and Baby Shine; the last named receives eight pounds from the other two and get the nod.

Overturn, second in the Champion Hurdle in March and as tough as old boots, makes his chase debut in the opener. He'll be long odds on but he isn't the biggest and the fences here are jolly stiff - not the ideal introduction to novice chasing...

Finally over at Ascot some interesting sorts go in the novices' hurdle (2.00) including a couple with form on the Flat - Andrew Balding's Chilberta King and Petara Bay, once owned by Bernie Ecclestone. Preference is for My Tent Or Yours whose second behind The New One at Aintree in April reads well.

The weather, Wetherby and Weatherbys

No selections this weekend - the turf cards at Sandown and Wetherby have already been lost to the weather and prospects at Ffos Las can hardly be described as good after clerk of the course Tim Long conceded frost had got under the covers - there's an inspection at 9.00 tomorrow morning.

What do we have to look forward to? Well, the Cheltenham Festival is just over five weeks away and the team behind the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2012 has started sending out tantalising statistical tweets on @CheltFestNews. The guide, now in its 13th year, is set to be published on February 24th and at £14.95 (including first class postage and packing), will, as always, prove a sound investment and extremely good value for money. This year you can also subscribe to the guide's Text Updates for £9.70 or Online Updates at a cost of £20.00

I'm staying disciplined and will not be tempted by tomorrow's rugby internationals, so no wagers for me this weekend; looking on the bright side, that'll be the first time I've managed to break even this year...

Weekend snippets

Jumps racing is a tough old game and I'm guessing the hope of discovering that one special horse is what keeps trainers such as Robin Dickin getting up every morning. I expect there are a few false dawns along the way but when the real deal turns up, you'll be able to spot it quickly enough. Robin Dickin's emotional interview after Restless Harry had beaten Fair Along 20 lengths in Wetherby's John Smith's Hurdle yesterday told us his search is over. Of prime importance now is to do right by the  horse; I'm sure Mr Dickin will not be found wanting in that sphere. A novice chase campaign looks on the cards but you can't help wondering whether connections might be tempted by a stab at the World Hurdle next March; this evening Ladbrokes quote Harry 33/1 for the RSA Chase, bet365 the same price for the World Hurdle.

In the past the aptly-named Restless Harry hasn't travelled long distances very well but he was as good as gold on Saturday; connections took a Shetland pony along to accompany the stable star and that appears to have done the trick...

It was good to see Time For Rupert back on form in the Charlie Hall. Although Paul Webber's charge was beaten three and a half lengths by Weird Al, connections were delighted with the performance and have indicated they will consider Haydock's Betfair Chase as his next target.

On the other hand connections of Charlie Hall winner Weird Al are reluctant to commit to the Hennessy. Weird Al has had his problems, a comment that also applies to Diamond Harry who was market leader for the race on Saturday morning before being withdrawn after he was found lame.

Ordinarily you might struggle to find common ground between the British Horseracing Authority and the Church of England but in recent weeks both organisations have managed to preside over something of a public relations disaster - the whip debate and the anti-capitalist demonstration outside St Paul's Cathedral.

On Saturday's Morning Line conditional jockey Stephen Clements (attached to Colin Tizzard's stable) named a couple to look out for - thing was he spoke so quickly, I had trouble understanding what he said! Oiseau De Nuit and Drybrook Bedouin were mentioned but Nick Luck appeared to indicate the latter had been reluctant to go to post in the past.

Finally, a result noted in the mares' maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter on Friday. 66/1 chance Justazippy beat 66/1 chance Prickles a head, 14 ran. The Straight Forecast paid 2068.29 while the Exacta paid 2413.50.
If only...

Wetherby and Ascot

There are eight declarations for what looks a competitive renewal of Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase. Nacarat did this blog a favour when collecting the spoils last year and connections will be hopeful of a repeat performance - in my opinion good ground is the key to this horse and he's likely to get that tomorrow. Diamond Harry heads the market but he hasn't been seen since winning last year's Hennessy at Newbury - he has a good record fresh and stable jock James Reveley was bullish enough about the gelding's chance last week. Writing in the Weekender Paul Kealy points out that Poquelin has won 9 from 15 between October and December but has never won from January through to April; having said that Paul Nicholls' black gelding has never raced beyond two miles five. Time For Rupert disappointed last time in Cheltenham's RSA Chase but he had a valid excuse that day (broke blood vessel) and will be a threat to all if back to his best. Chicago Grey appeared unlucky when useating his pilot two out with the race apparently at his mercy a fortnight ago at Cheltenham; he could have a fitness edge over his main rivals here. At the weights Poquelin is the one to beat but there are questions about the trip while Diamond Harry is short enough in the market; I'll side with Time For Rupert.

Fair Along bids for a third successive win in the John Smith's Hurdle (2.45). The gelding can be a tricky customer but he has gone well fresh in the past and is likely to try and make all. What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, finished fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and was then pulled up in the Grand National; he is rated 159 over fences and has been priced up favourite this evening but is another who can't be considered the easiest of rides - I'm not convinced this return to smaller obstacles will suit. I do like Restless Harry but it's well known he's a poor traveller so the journey north may have taken its toll. Ashkazar is somewhat inconsistent but when he's good, he's very good; Timmy Murphy should be able to ride his preferred waiting race with Fair Along in the field. Carlito Brigante is respected, having won the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival as he liked. He hasn't won over three miles and there may just be a stamina question over this trip of three miles one furlong; having said that the gelding had the benefit of a pipe-opener on the Flat three weeks ago. At the time of writing both 6/1 Fair Along (William Hill) and 5/1 Carlito Brigante (bet365) strike me as reasonable value; I'll stick with Fair Along.

On official ratings Alasi is the one in the mares' hurdle (2.15) but she's priced accordingly and I've burned my fingers on this event in the past so I'll adopt a watching brief. Similarly no bet in the novices' hurdle (4.00) but the 2008 William Hill Lincoln winner Smokey Oakey, part-owned by Dame Judi Dench, is an interesting runner, having won a maiden hurdle at Aintree in June.

The Ascot card looks difficult so brief comments only on a couple of the runners. Katies Tuitor (listed handicap hurdle at 3.00) likes a quick surface and a right-handed track and should have a fitness edge over some of these having been kept busy during the summer on the all-weather (trained by J S Moore). Over the years this gelding has obliged at a big price on more than one occasion but I just can't see that happening tomorrow - in addition I think he's better on a flat track so Ascot's stiff finish is unlikely to help the cause. Two worth monitoring are Nicky Henderson's filly A Media Luz (Weekender reports her trainer saying she is potentailly top-class provided she learns to settle) and Colin Tizzard's Third Intention (seventh behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle last March).

The Cushman & Wakefield Novices' Hurdle (4.15) should prove useful for future reference while I'm surprised to see Tiger O'Toole declared for the novice chase after falling on his first try over fences at Ludlow; the obstacles here are much less forgiving.

Finally in a recent Stable Tour article Colin Tizzard described Xaarcet as 'probably our best unraced horse for the season.' The gelding goes in the concluding bumper.

Some Saturday selections

Quick post this evening as I want to catch the Wales v. England rugby international. Dai Walters, the founder and owner of Ffos Las racecourse, will be hoping Wales can win tonight's match and that his horse Oscar Whisky makes it a double in the Welsh Champion Hurdle tomorrow. The layers think Whisky Oscar is something of a shoo-in (1/5) but they price England 4/7 favourites for tonight's encounter - Wales are 15/8 in spite of the home advantage.

In the three and a half mile chase at the Welsh track I'll chance I'moncloudnine who ran well to finish third in the Welsh National at Chepstow four weeks ago on ground that wouldn't necessarily suit. He sports first-time cheekpieces here which may bring out some improvement; Barry Geraghty, who looks to have a decent book of rides, is in the plate. The slight concern is the yard hasn't had a winner since January 13th.

At Sandown champion hurdler Binocular will face just three opponents at 1.55 - the next best horse is rated some 36 pounds inferior; as a result Binocular is priced 1/12 in tonight's tissue. The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase is far more competitive. After a comment in last Sunday's post about Robinson Collonges, I was looking forward to seeing that one taking his chance here but Paul Nicholls has entered front-runner Rebel Du Maquis instead. This one was beaten seven and a quarter lengths into third by Reve De Sivola and Wishfull Thinking the last time; on that occasion he was conceding eight pounds to the winner while the second franked the form with an impressive victory at the Cheltenham Trials Day meeting last week. Jonjo O'Neill saddles Rock Noir who hasn't raced over the distance in this country; in addition the stable has had a quiet time of it lately (3 wins from 33 runners in past fortnight). Big things were expected of Captain Chris this season - he's finished second three times but has bumped into a couple of smart performers in Silviniaco Conti and Ghizao; tomorrow should tell us more but on official ratings he has a bit to find with a few of these. Medermit is the top-rated animal and priced up the 7/2 market leader this evening; the favourite has won six of the last ten runnings. Second last time out in the Dipper, pilot Choc Thornton was disappointed to be beaten by Hell's Bay over two miles five - I've seen a comment from him this week saying that, with hindsight, he'd have ridden a different race. An open event - I'll side with Alan King's grey Medermit.

In the three mile totesport Masters Handicap Chase Philip Hobbs' Leading Contender appears nicely weighted - he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and is the tentative suggestion. Looking through a stable tour article from last October, the handler informs us the key is likely to be the jumping - the gelding isn't a natural but ran well enough for a long way behind Nicto De Beauchenne over course and distance the last time.

Only five go in the Towton at Wetherby but Ferdy Murphy had a good word for Hollo Ladies the other day. Ian Williams' Wayward Prince is bound to be popular but at the weights Murphy's charge has three pounds in hand and rates a play against the favourite at around 3/1.