Tuesday, December 25, 2018

The trouble with Christmas...

The trouble with Christmas - there are simply too many distractions and as a consequence one's form study suffers.

A couple of each-way Boxing Day longshots I'm going to mull over during Christmas dinner...

Double Shuffle (40/1) in a vintage renewal of of the King George (3.05 Kempton) on the back of his one length second to Might Bite in last year's race.

Allyson Monterg (11/1) in the Rowland Meyrick (2.10 Wetherby). Just eight declared and they'd all need to start for the bookies to pay three places but 14/1 has long since disappeared. Was pulled up behind Presenting Percy in the RSA and came home seventh beaten a long way by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy. I note that in the past decade all winners have been aged either seven or eight apart form According To Pete in 2011 and that in the same timeframe only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Cape Tribulation (2012) and Dolatulo (2014); Captain Chaos and Crosspark fit the required profile.

Food for thought.

Very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.


Anonymous said...


Double Shuffle is certainly over-priced, 50/1, in places now, but a feeling remains that he was flattered in this last year. The 8/1 about Bristol De Mai looks the value to me; he proved his doubters, including myself, wrong when showing he could be just as good on a decent surface last time out and I’m not at all worried about the track. Hard to believe he is only a 7yo sometimes, I liked the way he shrugged of a couple of mistakes in the Betfair LTO something that might have caused him to go to pieces earlier in his career, perhaps he has finally come of age.


You certainly found the early value in Allysson Monterg as he is now as short a 13/2, a concern would be that he’d ideally like the ground more testing. Captain Chaos could be very well handicapped on last season’s novice form, whilst he looked better LTO I think I’ll let him run.

All the best.


Anonymous said...

Welsh Grand National

I was hoping for 20/1 about Final Nudge (FN) in this but I’m happy(ish) to take the 16/1 BetVictor are offering (5 places, 1/5 odds).

Third in last year’s renewal off 145 FN runs off 138 this year, the ground would have been more testing last year and probably just saw his stamina ebb away; a bit better ground this time around may help him get home. He’s not ran this term but his record fresh from 2015,
2016 and 2017 reads:

2015: 2nd beaten a short head
2016: Won
2017: 2nd beaten a head

David Dennis ATR Stable Tour Quote:

“He ran the race of his career to be second in last season’s Badger Ales at Wincanton but we couldn’t go this year as the ground was too quick. He then went on to run a stormer in the Welsh National where he travelled strongly throughout, but struggled in the last two furlongs. I think I will go back to the Welsh National with him again this season because the track and ground clearly suits. That will be his first run this season. He’s down to a mark where he can be competitive and goes well fresh!”

Good luck if you play in the race.


GeeDee said...

Hi TW,

I like a wager in the Welsh National but this evening I have been obliged to carry out a familial obligation and attend the Christmas pantomime. 'Oh no you haven't! Oh yes I have!' Tiresome in the extreme.

As a result I haven't done the form so I'm not going to play.

You've made a strong case for Final Nudge and this quote from David Dennis in the Racing Post this evening adds weight to the argument:

"He's in good form, always goes well fresh and this has been the target since the summer. He ran very well in this race last year and if back to that level of form ought to be competitive off a 7lb lower mark."

If I had to make a suggestion with little more than a cursory glance at the race, following on from La Bague Au Roi and Verdana Blue today, I'd put up the mare Jennys Surprise as one with a racing weight who could outrun her odds (33/1, six places Paddy Power); another Paddy is booked to do the steering - Brennan.

Good luck!