Showing posts with label big deal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label big deal. Show all posts

Friday, January 18, 2019

In-play betting, Robbie Box and an each-way longshot at Ascot

Earlier this week both the Daily Mail and The Guardian ran stories about punters using real-time pictures from drones to gain an edge in in-play racing markets; the time delay on conventional 'live' TV feeds can be anything up to ten seconds - it's generally accepted a horse can cover five lengths a second (except when they're tipped by this blog).

All of which took me back to 'Big Deal', a TV series broadcast by the BBC in the mid-eighties, which focussed on the plights and predicaments of small-time gambler Robbie Box (Ray Brooks).

The one particular episode I can (barely) remember - it was transmitted well over thirty years ago now - involved Robbie gaining access to a room above a bookmaker's shop and then, with the help of an accomplice, introducing a delay into the bookmaker's feed, thereby giving Robbie and his acquaintances the time to pop downstairs into the shop to write out winning bets...

Betting shops, they were different beasts in those days - as this YouTube clip from the series clearly illustrates.

Valtor is one of three runners Nicky Henderson has withdrawn from Haydock's card tomorrow on account of health concerns. That leaves eleven in the Peter Marsh (3.15); clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright has called an inspection at 7.30am just in case the forecast rain falls as snow.

Four weeks ago Daklondike won the Tommy Whittle and so it's hardly surprising he's prominent in the betting; Tom Scudamore rides again although one assumes he wouldn't have endeared himself to everyone at Haydock for his contribution in 'The Scudamores: Three of a Kind' when he described the course as 'a dog track'.

With as many as eight of the eleven runners priced between 11/2 and 8/1, I've gone to Ascot in search of some value.

Thirteen are set to face the starter for the bet365 Handicap Chase at 3.00; course and distance winner Benatar, second behind Valtor last time out, is the current favourite. Writing in the Racing Post Weekender handler Gary Moore acknowledges his charge hasn't reproduced last season's form (finished third in the JLT at Cheltenham) but states:

"...I expect him to run well. He's in great form and should be competitive." 

Paul Kealy makes the case for Belami Des Pictons in the same paper but this one is passed over as he hasn't seen a track for 440 days and is plenty short enough in the market now.

Mister Whitaker beat Happy Diva and Cyrname at Carlisle before finishing a creditable fourth behind Baron Alco in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Happy Diva is a consistent sort but stable form is the worry with no winners in the past 51 days.

Jerrysback's preferred engagement is Haydock's 1.30 but course and distance winner Mr Medic is given every respect.

Paul Nicholls' two runners have caught my eye.

Cyrname was sent off 11/4 favourite for the Hurst Park Handicap Chase over two miles one here eight weeks ago; he likes to race from the front but couldn't live with Speredek that day and eventually finished seventh. In the same race stablemate San Benedeto came from off the pace to stay on into fourth behind Caid Du Lin who collared the long-time leader in the shadow of the post.

San Benedeto has since finished a well-beaten sixth behind Charbel in the Peterborough Chase but he races off 150 now, a mark he has won from previously, and it is worth noting he was rated as high as 158 last May; pilot Lorcan Williams also claims five.

Cyrname is the one to beat on Racing Post ratings while San Benedeto should be competitive; the former is a 10/1 shot while the latter is almost double that price.

I'm not entirely convinced this is his optimum trip but San Benedeto is the each-way suggestion at 18/1 - Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Betfair pay one fifth the odds four places.