A chance at Cheltenham on New Year's Day (2025)

Cheltenham must survive a 7.30am inspection tomorrow as a yellow weather warning for wind is currently in place. 

The going for the New Year's Day card is currently described as good to soft, with heavy rain forecast in the morning. 

Nine have been declared for the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (2.05) run over two miles four and a half furlongs on the New Course.

Gemirande, Springwell Bay and Colonel Harry are at the head of the market. 

18 days ago Gemirande won the December Gold Cup over course and distance and appeared to have something up his sleeve; Venetia Williams' charge has been raised eight pounds. 

Springwell Bay had no answer to Jango Baie over course and distance last time but Jonjo O'Neill's charge, beaten six and a half lengths that day, was conceding eight pounds.

Colonel Harry didn't appear to stay when well beaten behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. 

Prior to that, on seasonal debut, Jamie Snowden's charge was beaten just under four lengths in the Listed Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle. Taking into account Nick Slatter's three pound claim aboard Marble Sands, the pair meet on similar terms again. 

Marble Sands hasn't always looked the easiest of rides and probably won't appreciate further rain.

Midnight River, having finished third in the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup, won what looked a more competitive renewal of this race last year off 145. 

Dan Skelton's inmate has won over a trip of three miles plus and has been talked of as a potential Grand National horse but the gelding has been out of form so far this season; last time, like Colonel Harry, he was well beaten behind The Kandoo Kid in the Coral Gold Cup.

On his penultimate start Irish raider Lisnamult Lad sprang a 20/1 shock over a trip of two miles four on the Old Course, making all to beat Weveallbeencaught half a length; last time he fell in the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan when in the lead.

On his blog trainer Paul Nicholls has said the following about top weight Hitman:

"He is difficult to place because he is handicapped to the hilt but he ran another fine race when a close second to Minella Drama in the Old Roan at Aintree late in October. He then suffered a nasty bout of colic on the way home and spent the next fortnight at our vets. So we lost the best part of a month with Hitman before he was able to start regular exercise again.

"He has done plenty of work since that setback and seems in fine form now but it's possible he might just need the run under top weight in this Premier Handicap at a track where he has performed with credit in the past."

What a wonderful horse Seddon is!

John McConnell's charge beat Fugitif two lengths in the 2023 Magners Plate over course and distance and this autumn won a Qualified Riders race at Listowel at the age of 11 - his current Irish Flat rating is 88. 

As his handler said in a Straight from the Stable article a year ago [RP Weekender 27-31.12.23]:

"He's very straightforward and he doesn't owe us anything."

This time last year Henry Daly sent out Rapper to win a three and a quarter mile chase at this meet by 10 lengths. 

Now, not for one moment would I suggest Mr Daly is going to repeat the trick with Lounge Lizard but the gelding's second behind Ga Law over course and distance at the Trials Day last January reads well (Il Ridoto third, Victtorino and Hitman behind).  

The yard boasts a 31% strike-rate over the past fortnight (four wins from 13 runners); the 12/1 available when I started to write this post has completely disappeared.

8/1 with most layers now, Lounge Lizard is the each-way suggestion for New Year's Day.

With best wishes to all readers for a very happy new year. 

The 2024 Welsh Grand National

Season's greetings. 

Sixteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.

Market leader Monbeg Genius has three chase wins to his name - and two of those have come at Chepstow. 

He was beaten 12 lengths by the mare Fontaine Collonges at Haydock three weeks ago and meets that rival five pounds better off, allowing for the three pound claim Ned Fox makes on Venetia Williams' charge.

His third behind Corach Rambler off 140 in the 2023 Ultima reads very well but a mark of 144 here looks stiff. 

Stable jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr rides stablemate Iron Bridge who will be expected to come on for his seasonal debut when third behind Val Dancer at Carlisle (Your Own Story pulled up); the yard recorded a quick-fire double with Red Dirt Road and Fortunate Man at Aintree earlier today. 

Iron Bridge finished a remote second off 142 behind Nassalam last year so looks feasibly treated on 136; Mel Rowley's charge has been raised five pounds for that Carlisle victory.  

It's worth noting that in the past 20 years only five winners have managed to carry more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03, 2006); Synchronised (11-06, 2010); Native River (11-12, 2016); Elegant Escape (11-08, 2018); and Nassalam (11-03, 2023).

The mare Galia Des Liteaux was beaten threequarters of a length in the Classic Chase at Warwick last year before finishing eighth in the Aintree Grand National; trainer Dan Skelton indicated in a pre-season briefing that this race has been the target.

Sam Thomas saddles two, both making their seasonal debut - 2021 winner Iwilldoit and the seven-year-old Jubilee Express. The latter is much shorter in the market but has just four chase starts to his name.

Gordon Elliott saddles Where It All Began and Stuzzikini.

The former won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February before finishing fourth in the Kim Muir and then eighth in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse where he didn't jump particularly well. 

The market suggests this one, wearing first-time blinkers, is the pick of the pair.

After pulling up behind Bangers And Cash in a handicap chase at Exeter in November 2022, The Newest One was campaigned solely over hurdles until winning an amateur riders' chase at Cheltenham in October (Amateur and Atlanta Brave both pulled up). 

His fifth behind Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon at Cheltenham last time looks respectable and Twiston-Davies' charge won a novice hurdle by 19 lengths at this track last December. 

Evies Vladimir wouldn't be the safest of conveyances while Classic Concorde has a high hurdle rating but hasn't run in a chase since June 2023. 

Campaigned mostly on right-handed tracks, No Hubs No Hoobs won the Devon Stayers Handicap Chase at Exeter in April and finished 22 lengths behind Remastered on seasonal debut at Wincanton nine weeks ago. 

I tipped Amateur each-way at 66/1 for this last year; racing from the front and jumping slightly right, he went well for a long way but had nothing more to give and was pulled up before the first in the home straight. He has been pulled up on all three starts this season. 

Two each-way chances are on the radar.

Currently a 12/1 shot, Val Dancer has been backed in the run up to the race. After the win at Carlisle last time, trainer Mel Rowley said:

"Val Dancer did quite well last season and has really strengthened up and grown over the summer. He really wants cut in the ground and he could be a type for races like the Midlands Grand National."

Atlanta Brave's threequarters of a length second to Surrey Quest off a mark of 121 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase last December reads well (winner was subsequently beaten a nose by Macdermott in the Scottish Grand National). 

Kerry Lee's charge has yet to win a race over the larger obstacles but was highlighted by Keith Melrose, Racing Post betting editor, as a horse to follow this season (The Big Jump Off, Racing Post Monday 21st October).

Just four days later the gelding was pulled up three out at Cheltenham; next time he was fourth of five, beaten five lengths by Roccovango at Uttoxeter.

The yard was slow into its stride this term but has recorded two wins from nine runs in the past fortnight (22% win strike-rate).

There's a hint this may be a year too soon but the fact Kerry Lee's inmate won a maiden hurdle at this track in January 2023 is a positive and I note connections have opted to fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Generally a 14/1 shot, Ladbrokes and Coral stand out offering 18/1 at the time of writing. 

Atlanta Brave is the each-way suggestion, with both Ladbrokes and Coral paying five places.  

Retail frustrations at Christmas and the 2024 Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot

I begin this yuletide post with a slight digression on customer service - an occasional hobby horse of mine. 

I think we'd all agree good customer service should be lauded.

Six years ago, at precisely this time of year, I was only too happy to record Marks and Spencer's outstanding customer service in a post entitled 'A gift horse at Christmas'. 

Similarly, poor customer service needs to be called out as well.  

I'm afraid, six years on, standards at the once outstanding Marks and Spencer appear to have slipped.

A couple of months back I signed up for a Sparks card and, as instructed, downloaded the M&S app. The main motivation was to receive a free hot drink after six hot drink purchases - a modest enough goal, I think you'll agree, but, these days, that's about all I have the stomach for.

Anyway, it wasn't clear to me how the app was supposedly recording my coffee purchases so last week I asked a helpful member of store staff to explain. She showed me the app on her phone; a digital card popped up showing each purchase on her device, a feature that clearly wasn't working on my mine. A call to the helpline was required.

Two assistants - one customer, the other technical - quickly offered the same diagnosis and both were rather adamant: I didn't have the requisite digital profile and the simple answer was I needed to go away (as soon as) and create one. Having registered months earlier, I knew this couldn't be the case but my humble protestations were given short shrift.

Such larks with Marks! Chasing a free coffee felt like harder work than chasing a free bet.

Anyway, Plan B kicked in - details of the sorry saga were sent in a separate mail to somebody else and a prompt reply followed, the start of which is reproduced below:

"Thank you for contacting us at M&S.

"I'm sorry you had to go through this process, as a shopper my self [sic] I understand how frustrating you are."

Naturally, when I showed this response to my wife, she could only concur. 

Still, I was surprised to hear that rumours of my retail notoriety had reached the lower echelons of Marks and Spencer's nationwide support team... 

Retail therapy like that - it's enough to drive anyone to the formbook.

13 have been declared for the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3.35), the finale at Ascot tomorrow where a crowd of over 19,000 is anticipated; I have no doubt certain patrons amongst that number will have successfully claimed at least one free hot drink from Marks and Spencer.

The going is described as good to soft.

Five weeks ago Be Aware and the mare Dysart Enos finished second and third respectively behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood at Cheltenham (Fiercely Proud sixth, Go Dante ninth); on revised terms the pair look closely matched.

Unbeaten four-year-old Kabral Du Mathan had the Boodles at Cheltenham as a target last March after winning the Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle at Huntingdon but he never got there after suffering a setback. 

Paul Nicholls' inmate has been well backed through the day; this represents the gelding's first race with more than eight runners.

Three four-year-olds have come home in front in the past 20 years: Cause Of Causes (2012); Sternrubin (dead-heated with Jolly's Cracked It in 2015); and Tritonic (2021). 

Flashy chestnut Secret Squirrel, trained by Hughie Morrison and owned and bred by his wife Mary, finished third behind Our Champ over course and distance seven weeks ago (Fiercely Proud fell two out when disputing second) and is six pounds better off here; the trainer won this with Marble Arch in 2001 and Not So Sleepy in 2019 and 2020. 

The market currently rates Secret Squirrel a 6/1 chance while Our Champ is 20/1 in a place - having been 40s earlier in the week.

Favour And Fortune was sixth in the Supreme in March before winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April. Writing in the RP Weekender, Alan King says:

"He's come to hand quicker than I expected after his hock injury and he might have returned to action at Doncaster last weekend. 

"I decided that he would benefit from waiting a week and I was delighted with how he worked on the grass last Saturday.

"While I'm sure there will be improvement in him, as he's not run since last April, I believe that he's ready to run well."

The yard won this with Raya Star in 2011 and Tritonic 2021.

Top weight Steel Ally jumped well to make all and win at Haydock over two miles three furlongs off a career-high mark last time. Sam Thomas' charge has gone up another six pounds for that effort; it was testing at Haydock so better ground here should help but I'm not certain the step back in trip will.

Fiercely Proud is better going right-handed so his sixth under a hold-up ride in the Greatwood is easily forgiven. However he finished behind Be Aware, Steel Ally and Secret Squirrel in the Novices' Championship Final won by Helnwein at Sandown in the spring.

Rated 77 on the Flat in Ireland, front-runner Impero beat decent yardsticks Norman Fletcher, Aucunrisque and Jilaijone in a conditional jockeys' handicap at Cheltenham in October off 119 and has since won a Musselburgh novice hurdle over two and a half miles; the yard hasn't recorded a win so far this month.

Black Hawk Eagle proved no match for Norman Fletcher at Huntingdon last time while 2021 winner Tritonic finished last of 11 runners on the all-weather at Kempton 10 days ago and is clearly considered the stable's second string.

Kihavah, rated 101 on the Flat, is at his best on good ground and was declared a non-runner late this afternoon. 

Go Dante's nose defeat of Faivoir in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last March reads well. Olly Murphy's charge still has the look of one with something in hand of his current mark (132) but things don't appear to have gone to plan this term. 

He finished fifth behind Lump Sum in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las (weakened gradually from two out) and underwent wind surgery the very next day. Next time in the Greatwood he faded out of contention approaching the last and was beaten 19 lengths.

In a Straight from the Stable article just over a year ago [RP Weekender 01-05.11.23] Olly Murphy said:

"He wants very soft ground..."

When this race was priced up earlier in the week, I thought two horses looked overpriced - Our Champ and Go Dante's stablemate Alnilam, who never made the final declarations, presumably on account of the ground.

Our Champ beat Break My Soul a nose in the Lavazza Handicap here, despite conditional jockey Freddie Gordon dropping his whip in the final 110 yards. On revised terms the gelding has roughly two and a half lengths to find with Secret Squirrel and has been supported in the market through the day.

Hughie Morrison has said he thinks Secret Squirrel is well handicapped whereas Chris Gordon is on record saying the handicapper has probably 'got' his charge now.  

The Gordon yard has been slow to come to hand this season but King William Rufus won a handicap hurdle six lengths at the track earlier this afternoon.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 16/1 in a couple of places but at the time of writing 20/1 with bet365 who pay four places. 

Anyone fancy a coffee?

The 2024 December Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Eleven have been declared for tomorrow's December Gold Cup (1.50 Cheltenham) with the going on the New Course described as good to soft, good in places.

At the time of writing there has been strong support for five-year-old Madara who now heads the market. 

On his first run for Dan Skelton four weeks ago he made eye-catching late progress to finish fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (run on the Old Course) behind Il Ridoto and Ga Law (Fugitif fifth, In Excelsis Deo unseated rider). 

The gelding, previously trained in France, already has 12 chase starts - and four victories - to his name; both Unioniste (2012) and Frodon (2016) have won this race as four-year-olds in recent times.

Freddie Gingell, claiming three pounds, came home in front on Il Ridoto in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; the handicapper reacted by raising Paul Nicholls' charge to a mark of 149. 

Unfortunately Freddie picked up an injury when unseating from Siam Park at Taunton yesterday and has been stood down. The trainer's daughter Miss Olive Nicholls now takes the ride and claims seven; the horse is a drifter in the market this evening. 

Ga Law didn't always look that quick over his fences in the Paddy Power and also made one or two niggling errors. That said, he was closing on the winner up the the hill so the switch to the New Course should help his cause and he has the assistance of Gavin Sheehan in the saddle. 

Earlier in the week I watched a recording of last year's race. 

Il Ridoto and Frero Banbou took no prisoners up front that day and raced clear of their rivals from the eighth; the former, with Bryony Frost up, went on from two out and jumped the last five lengths to the good but the pair were caught in the final strides by Fugitif and Gavin Sheehan (Frero Banbou third, Grandeur D'Ame fourth).

Fugitif tries to win this year's renewal off a mark one pound lower than last year - the handicapper has clearly given him every chance. At nine years of age, Richard Hobson's charge is older than ideal - since 1994 there has only been one winner aged over eight: Coole Cody in 2021.

Top weight Stage Star won the 2023 Grade One Turners Novices' Chase and subsequently the 2023 running of the Paddy Power off 155 (Il Ridoto third, Fugitif fourth). He looks to face a stiff task off 162; in the last 20 years Frodon in 2018 is the only winner to carry more than 11-08.

In Excelsis Deo is a course and distance winner who should appreciate drying ground; Harry Fry's charge has the ability to be competitive but he didn't jump well in the Galway Plate in July and last time unseated Brian Carver with a bad mistake four from home in the Paddy Power.    

Gemirande finished some 25 lengths behind In Excelsis Deo over course and distance in April on his penultimate start but looked impressive at Ascot last time on seasonal debut, beating Nocte Volatus seven lengths. He goes off a career high mark of 136 tomorrow.

Le Patron won the Grade One Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown last year and showed his best form since when beating Scarface seven lengths at Newbury 15 days ago. On his one start at Cheltenham to date he was pulled up in the Turners at the Festival; his chance is respected although drying ground may not be ideal.

With just three chase starts under his belt Guard Your Dreams is the least experienced of these over the larger obstacles while I thought Sure Touch a tad disappointing in fifth in the Grand Sefton where he raced in rear for most of the way before staying on up the run-in. He underwent wind surgery six days after that effort.

Grandeur D'Ame's two length defeat of Ga Law (Il Ridoto sixth) at Chepstow nine weeks ago reads well. Writing in the RP Weekender handler Alan King says:

"The December Gold Cup has been the plan ... for some time.

"He loves to be fresh so after he won at Chepstow on his reappearance we decided to put him away and train him for this.

"Grandeur D'Ame finished fourth in this race last year and I think he's a better horse now. He's certainly working like one and he's in a good place at present."

Form lines aplenty to choose from; I like the look of the Chepstow race back in October.

At the time of writing Grandeur D'Ame is generally priced up at 8/1. 

Rather than the usual each-way play, I'm going to back Grandeur D'Ame to win with Sky who offer money back as cash (up to a maximum £10.00) if your selection finishes second, third or fourth. 

Storm Darragh and the Becher feature

Inspections have been called for tomorrow's cards at Sandown (7.30 am),  Aintree (7.00 am), Chepstow (7.30 am) and Wetherby (7.00 am) as Storm Darragh moves in. 

At 40/1 with William Hill (four places) I had thought Monte Igueldo worth a second look in the Becher feature at Aintree (2.07) but there's an amber weather warning for wind in place, with the forecast predicting gusts up to 65 mph. 

On his first start since July Monte Igueldo ran well for a long way behind Celebre d'Allen at Bangor last month, fading out of contention with a niggling error at the final flight, eventually finishing third. He was beaten under ten lengths, Major Dundee some 12 lengths further adrift in sixth.

For whatever reason Gary Hanmer's charge ran without the declared tongue-tie that day; he looks weighted to reverse the form with the winner here as Micheal Nolan has been booked to ride, replacing seven pound claimer Callum Pritchard.

His experience over fences doesn't compare with the rest of the field but Chianti Classico carries 12-00 and he sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap with just 10-03. 

Vic Venturi in 2009 was the last winner to carry top weight to victory; in the last ten years only two have won carrying more than 11-00: Blaklion (11-06 in 2017); and Ashtown Lad (11-05 in 2022).

At the head of the market King Turgeon beat Gaboriot four and a quarter lengths in the Grand Sefton four weeks ago but the step back up in trip is likely to benefit the latter.

Last year Chambard, with Miss Lucy Turner up, came home 13 lengths clear of Coko Beach (Percussion third, Celebre d'Allen fourth); if racing goes ahead, the partnership will try to repeat the trick off a mark five pounds higher. 

To use a phrase picked up from clerks of the course around the country, I'll take another look in the morning, but it's difficult to be optimistic that racing will go ahead given the forecast.