Eleven have been declared for tomorrow's December Gold Cup (1.50 Cheltenham) with the going on the New Course described as good to soft, good in places.
At the time of writing there has been strong support for five-year-old Madara who now heads the market.
On his first run for Dan Skelton four weeks ago he made eye-catching late progress to finish fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (run on the Old Course) behind Il Ridoto and Ga Law (Fugitif fifth, In Excelsis Deo unseated rider).
The gelding, previously trained in France, already has 12 chase starts - and four victories - to his name; both Unioniste (2012) and Frodon (2016) have won this race as four-year-olds in recent times.
Freddie Gingell, claiming three pounds, came home in front on Il Ridoto in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; the handicapper reacted by raising Paul Nicholls' charge to a mark of 149.
Unfortunately Freddie picked up an injury when unseating from Siam Park at Taunton yesterday and has been stood down. The trainer's daughter Miss Olive Nicholls now takes the ride and claims seven; the horse is a drifter in the market this evening.
Ga Law didn't always look that quick over his fences in the Paddy Power and also made one or two niggling errors. That said, he was closing on the winner up the the hill so the switch to the New Course should help his cause and he has the assistance of Gavin Sheehan in the saddle.
Earlier in the week I watched a recording of last year's race.
Il Ridoto and Frero Banbou took no prisoners up front that day and raced clear of their rivals from the eighth; the former, with Bryony Frost up, went on from two out and jumped the last five lengths to the good but the pair were caught in the final strides by Fugitif and Gavin Sheehan (Frero Banbou third, Grandeur D'Ame fourth).
Fugitif tries to win this year's renewal off a mark one pound lower than last year - the handicapper has clearly given him every chance. At nine years of age, Richard Hobson's charge is older than ideal - since 1994 there has only been one winner aged over eight: Coole Cody in 2021.
Top weight Stage Star won the 2023 Grade One Turners Novices' Chase and subsequently the 2023 running of the Paddy Power off 155 (Il Ridoto third, Fugitif fourth). He looks to face a stiff task off 162; in the last 20 years Frodon in 2018 is the only winner to carry more than 11-08.
In Excelsis Deo is a course and distance winner who should appreciate drying ground; Harry Fry's charge has the ability to be competitive but he didn't jump well in the Galway Plate in July and last time unseated Brian Carver with a bad mistake four from home in the Paddy Power.
Gemirande finished some 25 lengths behind In Excelsis Deo over course and distance in April on his penultimate start but looked impressive at Ascot last time on seasonal debut, beating Nocte Volatus seven lengths. He goes off a career high mark of 136 tomorrow.
Le Patron won the Grade One Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown last year and showed his best form since when beating Scarface seven lengths at Newbury 15 days ago. On his one start at Cheltenham to date he was pulled up in the Turners at the Festival; his chance is respected although drying ground may not be ideal.
With just three chase starts under his belt Guard Your Dreams is the least experienced of these over the larger obstacles while I thought Sure Touch a tad disappointing in fifth in the Grand Sefton where he raced in rear for most of the way before staying on up the run-in. He underwent wind surgery six days after that effort.
Grandeur D'Ame's two length defeat of Ga Law (Il Ridoto sixth) at Chepstow nine weeks ago reads well. Writing in the RP Weekender handler Alan King says:
"The December Gold Cup has been the plan ... for some time.
"He loves to be fresh so after he won at Chepstow on his reappearance we decided to put him away and train him for this.
"Grandeur D'Ame finished fourth in this race last year and I think he's a better horse now. He's certainly working like one and he's in a good place at present."
Form lines aplenty to choose from; I like the look of the Chepstow race back in October.
At the time of writing Grandeur D'Ame is generally priced up at 8/1.
Rather than the usual each-way play, I'm going to back Grandeur D'Ame to win with Sky who offer money back as cash (up to a maximum £10.00) if your selection finishes second, third or fourth.
4 comments:
Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Horse, Rating, Tissue
In Excelsis Deo [FR], 179, 10/1
Ga Law [FR], 177, 11/2
Gemirande [FR], 177, 11/2
Grandeur d'Ame [FR], 176, 14/1
Sure Touch [GB], 175, 10/1
Madara [FR], 174, 10/1
Le Patron [FR], 174, 16/1
Il Ridoto [FR], 174, 11/1
Guard Your Dreams [GB], 173, 12/1
Fugitif [FR], 171, 20/1
Stage Star [IRE], 170, 20/1
After a damp and drizzly night the going this morning is good to soft for a fascinating renewal where a strong case can be made for most of the field.
Alan King is certainly bullish about Grandeur D’Ame.
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record I’m sticking with Ga Law, racing of a career high of 156 he could be considered in the grip of the handicapper but everything points to him running another big race [8/1 4 places 1/5 odds].
In Excelsis Deo tops the system ratings at 179.
Rehearsal Chase 5th Kinondo Kwetu is out again today and once again is an attractive price should he decide to put his best foot forward.
Good luck!
TW
Thanks for your ratings, TW.
Ga Law my second choice in the Gold Cup.
Noted Kinondo Kwetu. Thought he took a while to warm up last time - win chance had gone before the second flight. At times I noticed he was taken quite wide as well - does he show his best form in smaller fields?
does he show his best form in smaller fields?
I’d say the jury is out on that, most of his wins have come in single figure fields but his best efforts, on ratings, have come in double figure fields. I’ll not be backing him in this but I’m sure that, one day, he will provider supporters with a nice pay day.
TW
The two best-backed horses in the December Gold Cup fought out the finish with Gemirande (11/2) always having enough in hand to hold Madara (11/4f) on the line.
Together with Stage Star (11/1) the winner helped set a searching pace up front that had several in the field struggling.
Fugitif (6/!) came from a long way back to claim third while Guard Your Dreams (12/1) stayed on up the hill in fourth.
Selection Grandeur D'Ame (12/1) raced prominently in fourth in the early stages but was unable to hold that position as the race developed. He came under pressure rounding the home turn and weakened after a mistake at the last, finishing fifth, some 13 lengths behind the winner.
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