Guineas weekend at Newmarket

The focus shifts to the Flat now.

Cards on the table - I don't follow the Flat particularly closely, so those tempted may want to think again before jumping in feet first...

Eighteen have been declared for the 204th running of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket where the going is currently described as soft and, according to layers, Aidan O'Brien's Camelot appears something of a shoo-in at around the 7/4 mark. Indeed Ladbrokes, who have long been rumoured to possess an 'inside line' to Ballydoyle, stand out from their competitors by offering just even money.

Those looking to oppose may be interested in Timeform's view that both Trumpet Major and Caspar Netscher are more highly rated. Caspar Netscher isn't guaranteed to stay a mile but is overpriced at 25/1, a point made by Topspeed, Dave Edwards, in the Weekender. Trumpet Major looked an impressive winner of the Craven while Power and French Fifteen are two others I've considered. The percentage each-way call is Power (12/1 Coral) who on official ratings is the top-rated animal in the field and won on soft ground at The Curragh last September.

I just wonder what affect, if any, the draw may have...

No selection put up for Sunday's 1000 Guineas but those interested in playing may find the Timeform ratings a decent starting point...       

In a nutshell...

Those lucky enough to be at Newmarket yesterday saw something exceptional when Frankel demolished his field to win the 2011 2000 Guineas by six lengths; the crowd's applause commenced with two furlongs still to race. Earlier this afternoon Dettori rode 16/1 chance Blue Bunting to victory for the 'Boys in Blue' in the 1000 Guineas.

Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of the legalisation of UK betting shops. The spartan establishments those of us of a particular age used to frequent in the mid sixites bear no resemblance to our modern shops. Sound only commentaries, betting shop tax, it was something of a 'guilty pleasure'. Some complain the prevalence of Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) threaten to turn today's shops into glorified amusement arcades, yet in 2008 these machines became the first product to earn more for Ladbrokes than horse racing. Money talks, as they say.

All that contrasts markedly with the tales of chicanery and criminality I'm currently reading about in Nicholas Foulkes' excellent book 'Gentlemen and Blackguards: Gambling Mania and the Plot to Steal the Derby of 1844'; the paperback version is due to be released on May 26th.

The Punchestown Festival starts on Tuesday - latest declarations here. I've blogged selected races from this meeting in the past but due to commitments can't this year (probably something of a blessing!) Where possible, I'll post some selections...

A final footnote on the royal wedding... One of the troopers from the Household Cavalry was thrown from his mount as the wedding procession made its winding way from the Abbey back to Buckingham Palace. The thoroughbred sped past the newly-married couple and headed for Hyde Park barracks where it was caught; rumours that Her Majesty is considering supplementing the beast for this year's Derby are apparently wide of the mark.

In brief

At Newmarket's Guineas meeting the layers were happy enough with a 33/1 winner in the colts' Classic (although I note the return was only £12.80 on the Tote) but the stewards' decision to reverse placings in the fillies' equivalent is thought to have cost the industry £5 million.

Having said that, bookmakers can't be doing too badly - look what they've been spending our money on. William Hill has sponsored the Monster Raving Loony Party during this election while Paddy Power has paid £10,000 for a new confessional box at a Catholic church in Newmarket.

Equiano's all-the-way win in the Palace House Stakes on Saturday was impressive. Channel 4's Emma Spencer interviewed winning jockey Michael Hills on the walk back to the winner's enclosure, while John Francome observed the entire looked 'ready run in the next'. With the bay still taking a strong hold, the microphone picked up Michael remarking to Emma, 'He'll be the first man to run away from you!'

Last week's Racing For Change initiative, offering racegoers free admission to several courses, appears to have been a resounding success but the trial of decimal odds at Ascot on Wednesday was branded a failure by several layers who reported a big drop in turnover and, as we all know, for bookmakers turnover is everything.

Finally, a National Hunt footnote to finish on; best wishes go to Robert and Sally Alner who have announced they intend to retire from training this summer. The yard won the 1998 Cheltenham Gold Cup with Cool Dawn (returned at odds of 25/1) while Sir Rembrandt was a particular favourite of mine.

1000 Guineas 2010

Following Mafki's shock win in the 2000 Guineas, I won't be getting involved in the fillies' Classic tomorrow. Eighteen have been declared with Criquette Head-Maarek's Special Duty currently heading the market at 4/1. Several have predicted the second leg of a French double but the filly's handler states:' We are not sure she will get the mile.' Luca Cumani's Seta has strong claims but Fallon's mount wouldn't want the ground too quick; the weather forecast suggests there will be rain in the area before the off. Richard Hills, guest on Channel 4's The Morning Line earlier today, appeared quite keen on the chance of his mount Rumoush from Marcus Tregoning's stable - that point is already factored into the 6/1 quoted by several layers. I have plenty of respect for Music Show who won the Nell Gwyn well under Fallon but the jockey has opted for Seta and Mick Channon's yard isn't flying at present. Over the past decade the market hasn't been the most reliable guide to this; granted, two favourites have obliged in that time but seven of the other eight winners have been returned with double-digit starting prices, last year's winner Ghanaati being the biggest at 20/1. A race to watch with the future in mind...

Smallish snippets

Sea The Stars won the 2000 Guineas on Saturday but there was something of a shock in the fillies' equivalent on Sunday with Barry Hills' 20/1 shot Ghanaati collecting the spoils. John Gosden's Rainbow View was sent off the 8/11 favourite but the writing was on the wall two furlongs out - the filly made some late laboured headway to finish fifth. After the race connections put her disappointing performance down to the firm ground.

Two to take out of the two Guineas races are Rip Van Winkle and Super Sleuth. In commentary on Channel Four before the colts' classic, John Francome said Rip Van Winkle would be some horse if he won looking the way he did; in such circumstances the horse ran well to finish fourth, with the yard under something of a cloud. In the 1000 Guineas Super Sleuth was last early on and practically last two furlongs out before making eye-catching progress to finish third.

Chester's May bash next week is one of my favourites on the Flat. Having spent my childhood just down the road in Wrexham, I remember the meeting always generated plenty of local interest. I finally managed to get to this one for the first time roughly ten years ago, when the racing was staged from the Tuesday to the Thursday. The train was late (plus ca change...) and in the dash to try to make it for the first, I was nearly run over by a Merc; we ended up watching the Lily Agnes Stakes from the City Walls, my selection obliging but without my having managed to get a bet on. On the walk towards the Tatts entrance I had two Club badges shoved in my hand by a Liverpudlian tout and then followed a gent wearing plus-fours and a deerstalker onto the course. Of course, all my other selections, which I did manage to bet, failed miserably. Don't you just love racing?

A couple of new books have appeared on the shelves recently. Patrick Veitch's Enemy Number One: The Secrets of the UK's Most Feared Professional Punter looks required reading while those who play the exchanges may be interested in Colin Cameron's You bet: The Betfair Story and How Two Men Changed the World of Gambling.

What with the Punchestown and Guineas Festivals, one that slipped under my radar was Nick Gifford's Russian Around - the beast won the Class 2 three mile handicap chase at Uttoxeter on Saturday. I'd made a note of this one after he collected in a Lingfield novice chase at the end of March. He won at 10/1 and looks worth noting for future reference.

Finally I bring to your attention the BBC's story that Y-front sales have increased by 35% during the recession. A spokesman for Debenhams attributes this success to the 'greater sense of security they provide'. I've invested in a three-pack and intend to make use of a pair the next time I bet a 33/1 shot.

Tomorrow's 1000 Guineas...

Only a quick note for the fillies in the 1000 Guineas as I don't intend to have a bet. On form Rainbow View is the one and the bookies have priced the race accordingly. If you held a gun to my head and told me I had to come up with an alternative, I'd suggest Rae Guest's Serious Attitude (currently second favourite at 13/2) or perhaps Jim Bolger's Cuis Gilhare (10/1) - today's 2000 third came from the same stable. Having said all that, this looks a race to watch.

This evening today's 2000 Guineas winner Sea The Stars has deposed Crowded House at the head of the Derby market. Skybet offer 9/2 while Ladbrokes go just 5/2. Others who ran in the Guineas with a Derby quote include Gan Amhras (third) 8/1 and Rip Van Winkle (fourth) 10/1. Hill's are the only layer to quote Godolphin's disappointing Ashram (thirteenth) at 25/1.

Guineas weekend roundup

New Approach was beaten for the first time in his racing career when going down by a nose to Henrythenavigator in a thrilling finish to yesterday's 2000 Guineas. Natagora proved beyond doubt that she stays a mile by deservedly taking the 1000 Guineas but Nahoodh would have been a big threat if she'd had a clear run. It's back to the drawing board for Godolphin with Ibn Khaldun giving a most disappointing display on Saturday and Laureldean Gale getting worked up beforehand on Sunday. Sir Alex Ferguson isn't accustomed to finishing last but the horse in which he owns a share, Fireside, did exactly that in the colts' race. To be fair, the horse struck into himself early on; connections say the plan is to lower their sights a little and look for a handicap or listed race.

It's that time of year. I've just switched off the central heating and next week one of my favourite Flat meetings, the Chester May Festival, takes centre stage from Wednesday to Friday. The highlight on the first day is the Chester Cup run over two miles three furlongs. I draw your attention to Philip Hobbs' comments about Fair Along from the Weekender dated 20-24 February - "Whatever happens [at Cheltenham] or at Aintree, make a note of him for the Flat because his big target is the Chester Cup..." Hobbs goes on to say he'd like Jamie Spencer, who gets on very well with the horse, to ride; looking at the entries on Sunday evening Spencer is booked to ride Highland Legacy while Ryan Moore is booked for Fair Along. Read into that what you will.

Regular readers will be aware that my home town team, Wrexham, were relegated from the Football League a couple of weeks ago. In their last league match, at Lincoln City, Wrexham went out with a bang, winning by four goals to two. A rather unsympathetic work colleague (who happens to support Chester City) kindly sent me an email link to the Conference website. Manager Brian Little has recently signed a new two-year contract; can Wrexham bounce straight back next season? They may well do, but I, for one, won't have any money on it.

1000 Guineas

Natagora looks the one to beat in tomorrow's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket; on Racing Post ratings she is clearly the best horse in the race. There has been a question about her staying the mile but connections are confident she can see out the trip - the draw in stall thirteen doesn't look ideal. Infallible was an impressive winner of the Nell Gwyn; in post race comments trainer John Gosden immediately identified Natagora as the big danger to his charge. Muthabara won at Newbury a fortnight ago while still sporting her winter coat. That prompted plenty of comment; the word is she still looks pretty woolly but she has also been the subject of an injury scare over the last forty eight hours and isn't certain to take part. John Fanshawe's Spacious is another worthy of serious consideration. If I get involved, I'll look for an each way bet on an outsider; two that catch the eye are Max One Two Three and Nahoodh. Andrew 'Bert' Black has a share in Max One Two Three and he's quite sweet on the filly's chances; she's 40/1 in most places and looks to have decent place prospects. Mick Channon's Nahoodh is priced up at 33/1 in some books which looks big. Granted, the yard has been slow into its stride and her performance in the Fred Darling at Newbury was below par. Having said that, it's obvious the trainer holds her in the highest regard.

A soccer postscript - I don't like football betting at all but Skybet go 5/1 Hibernian to beat Rangers in tomorrow's Scottish Premier League clash at Easter Road, while totesport go 11/4 the draw. Following Thursday's semi-final efforts in the UEFA Cup (extra-time and penalties), Rangers may well be vulnerable - the match is certainly no foregone conclusion. The two bets against a Rangers' win could yield a profit.