Showing posts with label lingfield NH. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lingfield NH. Show all posts

Friday, December 14, 2012

Cheltenham before Christmas

Christmas just around the corner but we've witnessed a distinct lack of Christmas spirit between trainer Paul Nicholls and owner Clive Smith in what The Times dubbed the 'Kauto Star wars' earlier this week. Smith's decision to pursue a career in dressage with Kauto has clearly upset those at Ditcheat. Thursday's Daily Mail painted a graphic picture of the extent to which this relationship had broken down when Smith took Nicholls to task over his pronunciation of the horse's name; after all those glory days, it really is sad to see the partnership end this way but, as in most sports, money talks and we should never forget it's an owner's prerogative to do as he (or she) wishes as the owner is the one who pays the bills.

Tomorrow's feature at Prestbury Park, the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup, will be run on testing ground. At the time of writing several layers have Walkon and Unioniste 9/2 joint favourites with Cristal Bonus a 6/1 chance; in the past decade just one favourite has obliged while all winners have been aged between six and eight years old in the same timeframe, sats which don't bode well for Unioniste. Walkon has an obvious chance on his three lengths second to Al Ferof in the Paddy Power Gold Cup run at this track over a similar distance and on similar ground four weeks ago (Nadiya De La Vega third, Quantitativeasing and Micheal Flips both pulled up). Alan King's charge looks the percentage call but in the past I've never found the grey easy to catch right and have had my fingers burnt on a couple of occasions. I'll give Walkon another chance.

The conditions of the International Hurdle (3.05) favour Zarkander and Paul Nicholls' five-year-old has the benefit of a run under his belt; he's priced up favourite. The last reigning champion to take this was Comedy Of Errors in 1973 but I'm tempted to chance Rock On Ruby who has won after the summer break in the past two seasons. Harry Fry was not a name known to many when the gelding took the crown last March - at that time Mr Fry was in charge of Nicholls' satellite yard and my guess is both the trainer and jockey Noel Fehily will be pretty keen to show that was no fluke. This evening Labrokes, Paddy Power and Stan James all offer 9/4 - sponsor Stan James also offers a free £10 bet if you bet £10 on this race. Rock On Ruby is the selection.

Our Father went into many notebooks last time and is declared for the novice chase at 12.45. Court In Motion, his main opponent, has the 1.45 at Lingfield as the preferred engagement; the ground for that Lingfield race is described as heavy. Court In Motion has never won over three miles whereas the trip and ground should suit Houblon Des Obeaux and Venetia Williams had a double today with Tenor Nivernais (7/1 Bangor 12.00) and Plein Pouvoir (12/1 Cheltenham 12.45).

If I remember correctly the Relkeel (3.40) has struggled for entries in the past and just three for tomorrow's renewal does not look good.              

Friday, March 27, 2009

Wedding day winners?

I have to go to a family wedding in Herefordshire tomorrow; as old age creeps up on me, in my mind I've found the terms Schadenfreude and weddings become ever more closely associated... What I tend to do on occasions such as this is go through the runners the night before, looking for names of horses with wedding day connotations and then, if asked, suggest to interested guests they bet those particular beasts. You won't be surprised to learn that over a ten year period the wedding day selections have performed much better than the selections I make using my normal methods. Mrs Tips and I have quickly perused tomorrow's runners at Doncaster and Kempton - Mrs T. likes Quiet Elegance, Bond Together, Grand Passion, Hearts Of Fire and Could It Be Magic while I much prefer Don't Panic, Against The Grain, Outrageous Request and Pullyourfingerout (those are the ones I was allowed to publish).

It's the first day of the Flat tomorrow. The highlight is the Lincoln at 3.55 which, as usual, has the look of a bookmakers' benefit. A decision on the participation of ante-post favourite Expresso Star is unlikely to be made before trainer John Gosden has walked the course. Earlier in the week the Racing Post informed us the layers were being kept awake at night worrying about this Expresso Star; now it's looking even money he'll run. I'm steering well clear.

It may be the opening day of the Flat but the big name jocks are riding at the Dubai World Cup fixture. If you fancy a flutter I recommend using Nick Mordin's analysis in the Weekender as a starting point; Nick is particularly bullish about Casino Drive and correspondingly negative about the opponents he faces in the Dubai World Cup due off at 5.30.

If I can find a betting shop in the local High Street, I'll cut away from the festivities for five minutes and stick a fiver on something at Uttoxeter or Lingfield. Tomorrow's meet at Uttoxeter is billed as 'Lambrini Classic Raceday' - make of that what you will - Scutch Mill gets the nod in the seller. Paul Nicholls is usually complimetary about his charges but this evening on Teletext he's not particularly complimentary about Predateur in the 3.45; I'll look to oppose the likely favourite, although making a case for any of the others looks hard work. The market says Sandhurst but Personal Column should handle the ground, has run in better class races and will offer some value against the front two.

Lodge Lane has been chalked up favourite for the 4.00 at Lingfield and would win if at his best but he's been nowhere near recently, pulling up on the last two occasions; connections try blinkers for the first time. Charlie Mann's Fair Point had a hard enough race in the Festival four miler so comes with reservations but makes more appeal than King Jack on his first outing over the larger obstacles. Quickbeam ran an awful race at Wincanton so I'll chance Lucy Wadham's Backbord to win my hotel bar expenses in what looks a rather trappy event.