Friday, March 27, 2009

Wedding day winners?

I have to go to a family wedding in Herefordshire tomorrow; as old age creeps up on me, in my mind I've found the terms Schadenfreude and weddings become ever more closely associated... What I tend to do on occasions such as this is go through the runners the night before, looking for names of horses with wedding day connotations and then, if asked, suggest to interested guests they bet those particular beasts. You won't be surprised to learn that over a ten year period the wedding day selections have performed much better than the selections I make using my normal methods. Mrs Tips and I have quickly perused tomorrow's runners at Doncaster and Kempton - Mrs T. likes Quiet Elegance, Bond Together, Grand Passion, Hearts Of Fire and Could It Be Magic while I much prefer Don't Panic, Against The Grain, Outrageous Request and Pullyourfingerout (those are the ones I was allowed to publish).

It's the first day of the Flat tomorrow. The highlight is the Lincoln at 3.55 which, as usual, has the look of a bookmakers' benefit. A decision on the participation of ante-post favourite Expresso Star is unlikely to be made before trainer John Gosden has walked the course. Earlier in the week the Racing Post informed us the layers were being kept awake at night worrying about this Expresso Star; now it's looking even money he'll run. I'm steering well clear.

It may be the opening day of the Flat but the big name jocks are riding at the Dubai World Cup fixture. If you fancy a flutter I recommend using Nick Mordin's analysis in the Weekender as a starting point; Nick is particularly bullish about Casino Drive and correspondingly negative about the opponents he faces in the Dubai World Cup due off at 5.30.

If I can find a betting shop in the local High Street, I'll cut away from the festivities for five minutes and stick a fiver on something at Uttoxeter or Lingfield. Tomorrow's meet at Uttoxeter is billed as 'Lambrini Classic Raceday' - make of that what you will - Scutch Mill gets the nod in the seller. Paul Nicholls is usually complimetary about his charges but this evening on Teletext he's not particularly complimentary about Predateur in the 3.45; I'll look to oppose the likely favourite, although making a case for any of the others looks hard work. The market says Sandhurst but Personal Column should handle the ground, has run in better class races and will offer some value against the front two.

Lodge Lane has been chalked up favourite for the 4.00 at Lingfield and would win if at his best but he's been nowhere near recently, pulling up on the last two occasions; connections try blinkers for the first time. Charlie Mann's Fair Point had a hard enough race in the Festival four miler so comes with reservations but makes more appeal than King Jack on his first outing over the larger obstacles. Quickbeam ran an awful race at Wincanton so I'll chance Lucy Wadham's Backbord to win my hotel bar expenses in what looks a rather trappy event.


Anonymous said...

You picked a winner Mr Tips! And don't you forget it! :)

Anonymous said...

You know you've only backed one winner and that was in 1987!


GeeDee said...

Scutch Mill took a big walk in the market, opening at 9/2 and going out to 7/1. The market called it right as 13/8 favourite Villochely won very easily.
Predateur (5/6f) eventually got his head in front in what was effectively a match, beating Sandhurst twelve lengths; Personal Column was a non-runner.
At Lingfield Russian Around (8/1) beat Lodge Lane (11/4) with 6/1 chance Backbord third; this was a return to form for Lodge Lane wearing blnkers for the first time.