Uncertainty over the weather means inspections are scheduled at Sandown, Aintree and Chepstow tomorrow morning.
The covers are down at Sandown where an inspection will take place at 8.00am for the Tingle Creek card which is under threat from frost; a forecast of snow has led Aintree stewards to call an inspection at 8.30am for the Becher Chase card; and at 8.00am Chepstow stewards will also check for frost.
Picking a meeting to survive the weather is proving nearly as difficult as picking a winner...
I've opted for Sandown; with the covers in place and overnight temperatures in Esher predicted to fall no lower than minus one, racing should go ahead...
Following an unsatisfactory midweek exercise Douvan misses the Tingle Creek at 2.55. Fox Norton is the one to beat but I'll be watching for an improved performance from course and distance winner Ar Mad who finished three and a half lengths behind Un De Sceaux in last year's renewal; Gary Moore's charge did well to finish so close after a bad blunder at the sixth.
The previous year Ar Mad beat Bristol De Mai ten lengths in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase - this year's renewal looks a very high class (and rather trappy) affair.
Jumping is always at a premium here; to date Brain Power has looked better over the bigger obstacles than Finian's Oscar but the latter possesses a distinct turn of foot which could serve him well if still within striking distance at the final flight. North Hill Harvey, on the same official rating as Finian's Oscar (155), is by no means out of the reckoning.
In search of an each-way wager I initially looked at the London National (3.30) but noted that Milansbar's preferred engagement is in the 2.45 at Chepstow while The Young Master will run in the 1.30 at Aintree if that meeting gets the green light.
The Jumeirah Hotels and Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (2.20) looks typically competitive - a case can be made for most in the field.
Alan King holds a strong hand with William H Bonney and Fidux. The former caught the eye behind Elgin in the Greatwood at Cheltenham when a lack of fitness told coming up the hill; the latter looked unlucky to unship Kevin Dowling at the last here last month.
I'm inclined to see Jenkins as something of a talking horse; I'll revise that view if necessary but he finished some eight and a half lengths behind William H Bonney in the Greatwood.
Last year A Hare Breath ran a blinder on his seasonal debut to finish two and a quarter lengths behind North Hill Harvey in the Greatwood; six weeks ago the plan had been to follow the same route this time; for whatever reason, there has been a re-think.
Course and distance winner Exitas has been in good form over fences recently; his chase rating is 133 but he starts off 125 tomorrow and has a seven pound claimer on board.
Front runner Rayvin Black is another on a handy mark (135); he raced off 141 in the Contenders' Hurdle here in February, likes the track but really needs more cut underfoot.
Zubayr's fifth behind Brain Power in this event last year reads well and he now starts off a mark four pounds lower; rider Mr L. Williams can claim seven. I'm hoping Paul Nicholls' charge has come on for his pipe-opener at Wincanton last month...
At 14/1 (one fifth the odds four places) with both Betfair and Paddy Power Zubayr is the each-way suggestion.
Showing posts with label tingle creek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tingle creek. Show all posts
Friday, December 08, 2017
Friday, December 06, 2013
Sandown selections for Saturday
I'm on a particularly poor run of form at the moment that started some 25 years ago...
The racing phenomenon that is Sprinter Sacre has to miss tomorrow's Tingle Creek at Sandown following a dirty tracheal wash. In his absence top-rated Sire De Grugy has eight pounds in hand over his nearest rival (Somersby) yet there was a definite lack of fizz about his last run in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham when beaten three and a quarter lengths by Kid Cassidy. I've seen it suggested Gary Moore's charge may be better going right-handed - he hung right after the last at Cheltenham - so there may be something in that. Following an effortless win at Chepstow, connections were keen to talk about taking on Sprinter Sacre - Sire De Grugy needs to win this if those lofty ambitions are to be realised. Should he come up short, Somersby and Captain Conan, both course and distance winners, will be waiting in the wings. Sire De Grugy is the form choice and my selection.
The Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1.50) is right out of the top drawer and should provide a useful pointer going forward. Grandouet boasts the best hurdles form but on his chase debut over course and distance the fencing looked decidedly awkward at times; he appeared held by Hinterland when coming to grief at the final flight while, similarly, Hinterland was far from fluent at the obstacles. Sandown with its Railway fences sets a stern test for any novice. Taquin Du Seuil has shown form over further but is afforded every respect while Balder Succes would have been three from three had he not come to grief two out at Cheltenham on his penultimate run. Connections of Claret Cloak will fancy their chances of reversing recent Exeter form five pounds better off with Manyriverstocross. In my book this rests between Balder Succes and Taquin Du Seuil; with layers struggling to agree a favourite this evening, Taquin Du Seuil gets the nod.
Fans of long distance chases are well catered for with the Becher at Aintree while the London National brings proceedings to a close at Sandown (Ikorodu Road having an entry in both races). I've lost count of the number of times I've half-fancied Alfie Spinner only for the beast to disappoint. Still, his second in the Badger Ales behind Standing Ovation last time reads well and he contests this off a mark 12 pounds lower than that from which he started last year's Hennessy. He finished three and a quarter lengths ahead of Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise at Wincanton but is two pounds worse off with that rival this time - they look closely matched. With Lavelle's inmate not certain to stay the extended trip I'm going to take chance with Alan King's Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. The top weight ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham three weeks ago - although coming home fifth he was beaten under five lengths and is priced up at 7/1 with Stan James this evening.
The racing phenomenon that is Sprinter Sacre has to miss tomorrow's Tingle Creek at Sandown following a dirty tracheal wash. In his absence top-rated Sire De Grugy has eight pounds in hand over his nearest rival (Somersby) yet there was a definite lack of fizz about his last run in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham when beaten three and a quarter lengths by Kid Cassidy. I've seen it suggested Gary Moore's charge may be better going right-handed - he hung right after the last at Cheltenham - so there may be something in that. Following an effortless win at Chepstow, connections were keen to talk about taking on Sprinter Sacre - Sire De Grugy needs to win this if those lofty ambitions are to be realised. Should he come up short, Somersby and Captain Conan, both course and distance winners, will be waiting in the wings. Sire De Grugy is the form choice and my selection.
The Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1.50) is right out of the top drawer and should provide a useful pointer going forward. Grandouet boasts the best hurdles form but on his chase debut over course and distance the fencing looked decidedly awkward at times; he appeared held by Hinterland when coming to grief at the final flight while, similarly, Hinterland was far from fluent at the obstacles. Sandown with its Railway fences sets a stern test for any novice. Taquin Du Seuil has shown form over further but is afforded every respect while Balder Succes would have been three from three had he not come to grief two out at Cheltenham on his penultimate run. Connections of Claret Cloak will fancy their chances of reversing recent Exeter form five pounds better off with Manyriverstocross. In my book this rests between Balder Succes and Taquin Du Seuil; with layers struggling to agree a favourite this evening, Taquin Du Seuil gets the nod.
Fans of long distance chases are well catered for with the Becher at Aintree while the London National brings proceedings to a close at Sandown (Ikorodu Road having an entry in both races). I've lost count of the number of times I've half-fancied Alfie Spinner only for the beast to disappoint. Still, his second in the Badger Ales behind Standing Ovation last time reads well and he contests this off a mark 12 pounds lower than that from which he started last year's Hennessy. He finished three and a quarter lengths ahead of Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise at Wincanton but is two pounds worse off with that rival this time - they look closely matched. With Lavelle's inmate not certain to stay the extended trip I'm going to take chance with Alan King's Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. The top weight ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham three weeks ago - although coming home fifth he was beaten under five lengths and is priced up at 7/1 with Stan James this evening.
Friday, December 07, 2012
From Sandown to Aintree and back
Tomorrow's Tingle Creek has been billed a match between Sprinter Sacre and Sandown specialist Sanctuaire; that's about the long and short of it and at the prices on offer I'm not tempted to play. Trying to pick holes in the form looks something of a futile exercise. I note that both race keenly and like to get on with it (as, indeed, does Kumbeshwar and Doeslessthanme) which on this testing ground could, in theory, lead to the race being set up for something to come from behind - you can have 40/1 His Excellency if you like - but the stats suggest there's no real value to be had as six favourites have obliged in the past decade with 2002 winner Cenkos (6/1) returned at the biggest price during that timeframe.
Underfoot conditions appear to have frightened off a number of the interesting five day entries on the rest of Sandown's card (Overturn, My Tent Or Yours, New Year's Eve, Cotton Mill) so I've decided to take a look at Aintree's Becher Chase run over the National fences where the going is currently described as heavy.
I tipped West End Rocker at 14/1 to win the race last year and, unusually for one of my selections, he came home in something of a common canter. On the back of that performance, I tipped the same horse for the National in April but he got no further than the second. A fortnight later connections brought him out for what was supposedly some compensation in the Betfred Gold Cup (at Sandown) but the gelding ran an absolute stinker out the back, eventually being pulled up. At the time trainer Alan King made comments about the horse having had a bad experience at Aintree and not liking the fences there which I thought odd given the same beast had won the Becher. Much later the handler put it down to the brouhaha of the occasion but I'm wary; on top of that tomorrow's pilot, Choc Thornton, has never won on the horse.
Martin Keighley's Any Currency was my fancy for the finale at Sandown until I realised the Becher was the target! This one failed to make the cut for the National in April but stayed on into third behind Tidal Bay in the Betfred Gold Cup after losing his position mid-race. He comes here with two runs under his belt but in an interview connections appeared ambivalent as to whether their charge would take to the obstacles; if he does, next year's National definitely will be on his agenda.
Nine of the past ten winners have been aged eight or older which puts me off Join Together, Problema Tic and bottom one Ballyvesey.
For this I do tend to prefer one with form over these fences; of the market leaders Big Fella Thanks makes most appeal to this observer - his record in the National reads sixth in 2009; fourth in 2010; seventh in 2011. Now with Tom George, the horse blundered and unseated Paddy Brennan last time out but is forgiven that particular lapse. At an each-way price I was very tempted by Any Currency (12/1) but marginally prefer another lightweight in the shape of Kim Bailey's Midnight Haze who finished a very distant 15th behind Neptune Collonges in the National; he's priced up at 25/1 with Coral this evening.
Two selections against the field - Big Fella Thanks (7/1 generally) and Midnight Haze each-way (25/1 Coral).
Finally, I have to return to the finale at Sandown, the London (rather than Aintree) National. If they do race at Aintree, just five will face the starter at Sandown where the Paul Nicholls trained favourite Tempo De Cotte is worth opposing on the back of his disappointing fourth at Plumpton last time - his first run in this country. Golan Way is a law to himself (refused to race on his seasonal debut last year) but if in the mood could easily win - trainer Sheena West saddled 7/1 chance Captain Cardington to take the opener at the course today - but the Trevor Hemmings owned Lively Baron carries just ten stone five and with Dickie Johnson in the plate is the selection.
Underfoot conditions appear to have frightened off a number of the interesting five day entries on the rest of Sandown's card (Overturn, My Tent Or Yours, New Year's Eve, Cotton Mill) so I've decided to take a look at Aintree's Becher Chase run over the National fences where the going is currently described as heavy.
I tipped West End Rocker at 14/1 to win the race last year and, unusually for one of my selections, he came home in something of a common canter. On the back of that performance, I tipped the same horse for the National in April but he got no further than the second. A fortnight later connections brought him out for what was supposedly some compensation in the Betfred Gold Cup (at Sandown) but the gelding ran an absolute stinker out the back, eventually being pulled up. At the time trainer Alan King made comments about the horse having had a bad experience at Aintree and not liking the fences there which I thought odd given the same beast had won the Becher. Much later the handler put it down to the brouhaha of the occasion but I'm wary; on top of that tomorrow's pilot, Choc Thornton, has never won on the horse.
Martin Keighley's Any Currency was my fancy for the finale at Sandown until I realised the Becher was the target! This one failed to make the cut for the National in April but stayed on into third behind Tidal Bay in the Betfred Gold Cup after losing his position mid-race. He comes here with two runs under his belt but in an interview connections appeared ambivalent as to whether their charge would take to the obstacles; if he does, next year's National definitely will be on his agenda.
Nine of the past ten winners have been aged eight or older which puts me off Join Together, Problema Tic and bottom one Ballyvesey.
For this I do tend to prefer one with form over these fences; of the market leaders Big Fella Thanks makes most appeal to this observer - his record in the National reads sixth in 2009; fourth in 2010; seventh in 2011. Now with Tom George, the horse blundered and unseated Paddy Brennan last time out but is forgiven that particular lapse. At an each-way price I was very tempted by Any Currency (12/1) but marginally prefer another lightweight in the shape of Kim Bailey's Midnight Haze who finished a very distant 15th behind Neptune Collonges in the National; he's priced up at 25/1 with Coral this evening.
Two selections against the field - Big Fella Thanks (7/1 generally) and Midnight Haze each-way (25/1 Coral).
Finally, I have to return to the finale at Sandown, the London (rather than Aintree) National. If they do race at Aintree, just five will face the starter at Sandown where the Paul Nicholls trained favourite Tempo De Cotte is worth opposing on the back of his disappointing fourth at Plumpton last time - his first run in this country. Golan Way is a law to himself (refused to race on his seasonal debut last year) but if in the mood could easily win - trainer Sheena West saddled 7/1 chance Captain Cardington to take the opener at the course today - but the Trevor Hemmings owned Lively Baron carries just ten stone five and with Dickie Johnson in the plate is the selection.
Friday, December 02, 2011
The Tingle Creek and the Becher feature
A cursory glance at tomorrow's Tingle Creek and Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe looks the one. With Tataniano now written off for the season, the current champion has 13 pounds in hand over nearest rival Wishfull Thinking. The market has priced the race accordingly; it's worth noting that the favourite has obliged on five occasions in the past decade and in that time the biggest-priced winner was 6/1 shot Cenkos in 2002. Having said all that, Sizing Europe had a right hard race over a mile further in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal four weeks ago where he ran out of petrol on the run-in and was passed by Quito De La Roque. It's difficult to know how much that race will have taken out of him. Wishfull Thinking raced from the front in the Paddy Power over an extra half-mile but faded into sixth at the business end and was reported 'very thick in his wind' afterwards; Philip Hobbs, never one to talk up his horses for the sake of it, does not think his charge will be done for pace. While Kauto Stone could be one for the future, it's worth remembering this particular track provides a stern examination of any youngster's jumping but course and distance winner Gauvain isn't totally written off, although I've never found the gelding easy to win with. Sizing Europe is the clear form choice and 6/4 will look easy money to many but in search of a bit of value I'm going to chance Wishfull Thinking at around 3/1. Once again he's likely to race to the fore so at least I'll know my fate soon enough.
At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.
The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.
At Aintree the feature is The Becher Chase (2.10) run over the National fences. Fifteen go to post and there are plenty with chances including last year's winner Hello Bud who tries to repeat the trick just a couple of weeks short of his 14th birthday. I like a horse at a price with form over the fences in a race such as this and, to be honest, I'm struggling to find something to fit the bill. Niche Market appeals having finished fifth in the National but 8/1 is short enough and the layers are similarly shy about Topham winner Always Waining. Alan King holds National aspirations for West End Rocker and the bay looked unlucky to be brought down at Becher's in the spring so at around 14/1 I'll take a small each-way interest; he didn't shine on his seasonal debut around Cheltenham so connections will be hoping for a better showing here from their Warwick Classic Chase winner.
The opener at the same course sees a clash between Keys and Cinders And Ashes; the last time the pair met the former prevailed by a short-head in a Cheltenham bumper. Cinders And Ashes should come on for his seasonal debut two weeks ago while Keys was last seen finishing down the field in the Cesarewitch. In my book Cinders And Ashes will represent a play against likely favourite Keys if priced 11/4 or bigger.
Friday, December 03, 2010
Suggested reading during a cold spell
The big freeze means there's no jump racing tomorrow. The Tingle Creek has been re-scheduled to 1.55 Cheltenham Saturday December 11th provided, of course, the weather relents; the course hope to lay down covers this Sunday.
Meetings already abandoned include:
Sunday 5th December: Kelso, Clonmel, Punchestown
Monday 6th December: Bangor-On-Dee, Musselburgh
Tuesday 7th December: Sedgefield
Wednesday 8th December: Hexham.
What to do? Why not try a little race reading...
Ruby: The Autobiography by Ruby Walsh
Kauto Star & Denman by Jonathan Powell
McCoy: A Racing Post Celebration by Brough Scott
The Cheltenham World of Jump Racing by Mick Fitzgerald
Lucky Break by Paul Nicholls
Frankincense and More: The Biography of Barry Hills by Robin Oakley
Kinane: A Remarkable Racing Family by Anne Holland
In The Frame: Great Racing Photographs by Edward Whitaker
Dark Horses Jumps Guide 2010-2011 by Marten Julian
Fallon: The Biography by Andrew Longmore
Freud On Course: The Racing Lives of Clement Freud by Clement Freud
Rodders of Arabia by Rod Simpson with Stuart Brodkin
Eclipse by Nicholas Clee
Meetings already abandoned include:
Sunday 5th December: Kelso, Clonmel, Punchestown
Monday 6th December: Bangor-On-Dee, Musselburgh
Tuesday 7th December: Sedgefield
Wednesday 8th December: Hexham.
What to do? Why not try a little race reading...
Ruby: The Autobiography by Ruby Walsh
Kauto Star & Denman by Jonathan Powell
McCoy: A Racing Post Celebration by Brough Scott
The Cheltenham World of Jump Racing by Mick Fitzgerald
Lucky Break by Paul Nicholls
Frankincense and More: The Biography of Barry Hills by Robin Oakley
Kinane: A Remarkable Racing Family by Anne Holland
In The Frame: Great Racing Photographs by Edward Whitaker
Dark Horses Jumps Guide 2010-2011 by Marten Julian
Fallon: The Biography by Andrew Longmore
Freud On Course: The Racing Lives of Clement Freud by Clement Freud
Rodders of Arabia by Rod Simpson with Stuart Brodkin
Eclipse by Nicholas Clee
Friday, December 04, 2009
Tingle Creek day at Sandown
Precautionary inspections have been called for tomorrow's cards at both Sandown and Wetherby; the feature of the day is the Tingle Creek Chase run over two miles at Sandown. Last year's winner Master Minded, beaten by Well Chief at Cheltenham three weeks ago, misses this renewal as, following that surprise defeat, it was discovered he was suffering from a stress fracture to a rib. Five are set to face the starter, including Well Chief, but the race has a very trappy look to it; picking the winner won't be easy. Big Zeb has been marked up favourite but I'm inclined to oppose on two counts. Firstly, his trainer said earlier today he was worried about the soft ground for his charge. Secondly, of the eleven chases this horse has started since December 2007, he has won on four occasions but has notably fallen on four occasions. Failing to complete 36% of the time looks high in anybody's book and Sandown is a course that takes more jumping than most. On official ratings Paul Nicholls' Twist Magic is the one to beat but this horse is not one to trust implicitly. On his day he is very talented but he has run some stinkers in the past and on the odd occasion has shown a reluctance to start. Having said that, Sandown is a course he appears to like as he won this event in 2007 and was in the process of giving stablemate Master Minded a fright when coming to grief two out last year. Well Chief is ten years old, will be eleven in a month's time, but doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock. The trouble connections have had with this horse's legs has been well documented. His defeat of Master Minded the last time reads well, although he was in receipt of ten pounds and the current champion was subsequently found to have a problem. Barry Geraghty appears to have deserted Forpadydeplasterer for Big Zeb; McCoy comes in for a fine-looking spare ride. On official ratings Arkle winner Forpady has enough to make up with three of the field to get competitive. In the last few days I've read a comment that connections were going to use this race to determine whether to go up in distance with their charge - he finished fourth in the 2008 Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival which is run over two miles four plus. Mahogany Blaze appears a little outclassed but tactics will play a part in this small field as it doesn't look immediately obvious where the pace is going to come from. A trappy event - provided there are no obvious signs of temperament in the preliminaries, I'll take a chance with top-rated Twist Magic.
Only four in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase in which Emma Lavelle's Crack Away Jack will be expected to prevail against some useful opposition. A race to watch rather than bet on.
Some well known names in the opener - it will be interesting to see how Silverburn fares on his first run for Evan Williams. In a recent stable tour item his handler said, 'We're taking things one day at a time.' He could offer some each-way value for those brave enough to take the chance. Nick Gifford's Alderluck will be popular but former Lanzarote winner Nycteos catches my eye with just ten stones four on his back. He threw Ruby off at the second flight last Friday, having been off the track for nearly eighteen months. Perhaps he's still a little fresh but I prefer him to Ballyfitz who tries hurdles after jumping problems in two big chases in recent weeks and Fred Winter winner Silk Affair.
In the novices' hurdle Sonowyouno has to give eight pounds to the rest of the field on ground that is described as soft, heavy in places. I wouldn't be in a rush to take a short price and will consider opposing with Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall who has been described as having 'a high cruising speed'.
Kilbeggan Blade has won the last two renewals of the finale and has conditions to suit but Tom George's yard hasn't had a winner for a while. I would be prepared to forgive Never So Blue's last run at Cheltenham and will consider a small each-way interest if the price is right. Russian Trigger won the Midlands Grand National in March and should come on for his first run since the summer break three weeks ago. However he is one who needs to learn to respect the obstacles; connections hope he'll prove good enough for the Aintree National in the spring.
Only four in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase in which Emma Lavelle's Crack Away Jack will be expected to prevail against some useful opposition. A race to watch rather than bet on.
Some well known names in the opener - it will be interesting to see how Silverburn fares on his first run for Evan Williams. In a recent stable tour item his handler said, 'We're taking things one day at a time.' He could offer some each-way value for those brave enough to take the chance. Nick Gifford's Alderluck will be popular but former Lanzarote winner Nycteos catches my eye with just ten stones four on his back. He threw Ruby off at the second flight last Friday, having been off the track for nearly eighteen months. Perhaps he's still a little fresh but I prefer him to Ballyfitz who tries hurdles after jumping problems in two big chases in recent weeks and Fred Winter winner Silk Affair.
In the novices' hurdle Sonowyouno has to give eight pounds to the rest of the field on ground that is described as soft, heavy in places. I wouldn't be in a rush to take a short price and will consider opposing with Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall who has been described as having 'a high cruising speed'.
Kilbeggan Blade has won the last two renewals of the finale and has conditions to suit but Tom George's yard hasn't had a winner for a while. I would be prepared to forgive Never So Blue's last run at Cheltenham and will consider a small each-way interest if the price is right. Russian Trigger won the Midlands Grand National in March and should come on for his first run since the summer break three weeks ago. However he is one who needs to learn to respect the obstacles; connections hope he'll prove good enough for the Aintree National in the spring.
Friday, December 05, 2008
Sandown, Wetherby and Chepstow
I was on two minds whether to play today (Friday) with a couple of decent races at both Sandown and Exeter; in the event I'm glad I didn't. The victory of Barbers Shop over Sandown's stiff three miles stands out. This evening Paddy Power offer just 16/1 the horse for the Cheltenham Gold Cup; Hills go 33/1. Nicky Henderson can do little wrong at the moment - his 13/2 shot Doubly Guest looked set to spring a surprise in the 1.00 race at Exeter but a mistake at the last handed the initiative to Lupanar (7/1) who went on to score by half a length, with Franchoek a further one and a half lengths behind in third.
The feature at Sandown tomorrow is the Tingle Creek at 2.35. McCoy takes over from Sam Thomas to ride Master Minded, the highest rated horse in training; he'll be no price but is difficult to oppose. A number of commentators oppose with Tidal Bay; he's been backed during the week and represents a value play provided you're prepared to take on the favourite. At the back of my mind I have a picture of this horse jumping poorly at Doncaster before he went on to win the Arkle last season - having said that he had a nice pipe-opener at Carlisle five weeks ago. Twist Magic looked good winning this last year but things haven't really worked out since. The race doesn't make much appeal from a betting point of view. If eight had gone to post 50/1 shot Fiepes Shuffle would have had a sporting each-way chance of making the first three; I take Master Minded to win.
Only five runners in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase, but picking the winner isn't an easy matter. The two four year olds, Free World and Araldur, get a weight allowance from their opponents and the former is a course and distance winner. The railway fences in particular will provide a stiff test for a young novice but I'm going to take a chance on Araldur as a play against the Nicholls hotpot Free World. Cheating Chance would make more appeal if underfoot conditions were better; I'm sure I saw a comment earlier in the week from trainer Andy Turnell that implied the owners (rather than the trainer) were the ones who were keen to race here.
I consider Hernando Royal an each-way play in the 3.15 after his fourth behind Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham; his featherweight will be an advantage in the prevailing conditions.
Provided there's no overnight frost the card at Wetherby should get the go-ahead. Nicky Henderson's Punjabi is expected to take the re-arranged 'Fighting Fifth' but he won't be a betting proposition.
In the One Man Novices' Chase Will Be Done is the top-rated animal; his beating of Nine De Sivola last time out reads well. Having said that, Silver By Nature was a close second to the highly-regarded Kealshore Boy at Newcastle. I'll chance Silver By Nature as he offers value, although I harbour some reservations about him quite seeing out this trip in testing conditions. Both these race prominently - I hope they don't get caught out taking each other on early doors.
Travelling back south, the going at Chepstow is soft. The markets think the man in the news, Sam Thomas, has a couple of steering jobs with Charity Lane and Inchidaly Rock; for those prepared to take a chance, Baren De Doc may repay each-way support in the opener.
If Ardaghey is priced up favourite for the 2.10 he'll be worth opposing as the trip looks on the short side for this dour stayer. Pauillac has disappointed too often for my liking while Presenting Copper isn't guaranteed to get the trip. In a trappy affair I'm tempted to side with Lysander; Michael Murphy takes off a valuable seven pounds.
Course and distance winner Wichita Lineman is the selection for the one o'clock race.
The feature at Sandown tomorrow is the Tingle Creek at 2.35. McCoy takes over from Sam Thomas to ride Master Minded, the highest rated horse in training; he'll be no price but is difficult to oppose. A number of commentators oppose with Tidal Bay; he's been backed during the week and represents a value play provided you're prepared to take on the favourite. At the back of my mind I have a picture of this horse jumping poorly at Doncaster before he went on to win the Arkle last season - having said that he had a nice pipe-opener at Carlisle five weeks ago. Twist Magic looked good winning this last year but things haven't really worked out since. The race doesn't make much appeal from a betting point of view. If eight had gone to post 50/1 shot Fiepes Shuffle would have had a sporting each-way chance of making the first three; I take Master Minded to win.
Only five runners in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase, but picking the winner isn't an easy matter. The two four year olds, Free World and Araldur, get a weight allowance from their opponents and the former is a course and distance winner. The railway fences in particular will provide a stiff test for a young novice but I'm going to take a chance on Araldur as a play against the Nicholls hotpot Free World. Cheating Chance would make more appeal if underfoot conditions were better; I'm sure I saw a comment earlier in the week from trainer Andy Turnell that implied the owners (rather than the trainer) were the ones who were keen to race here.
I consider Hernando Royal an each-way play in the 3.15 after his fourth behind Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham; his featherweight will be an advantage in the prevailing conditions.
Provided there's no overnight frost the card at Wetherby should get the go-ahead. Nicky Henderson's Punjabi is expected to take the re-arranged 'Fighting Fifth' but he won't be a betting proposition.
In the One Man Novices' Chase Will Be Done is the top-rated animal; his beating of Nine De Sivola last time out reads well. Having said that, Silver By Nature was a close second to the highly-regarded Kealshore Boy at Newcastle. I'll chance Silver By Nature as he offers value, although I harbour some reservations about him quite seeing out this trip in testing conditions. Both these race prominently - I hope they don't get caught out taking each other on early doors.
Travelling back south, the going at Chepstow is soft. The markets think the man in the news, Sam Thomas, has a couple of steering jobs with Charity Lane and Inchidaly Rock; for those prepared to take a chance, Baren De Doc may repay each-way support in the opener.
If Ardaghey is priced up favourite for the 2.10 he'll be worth opposing as the trip looks on the short side for this dour stayer. Pauillac has disappointed too often for my liking while Presenting Copper isn't guaranteed to get the trip. In a trappy affair I'm tempted to side with Lysander; Michael Murphy takes off a valuable seven pounds.
Course and distance winner Wichita Lineman is the selection for the one o'clock race.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Weekend reflections
Connections will take their time before making a decision on Inglis Drever's career after the current three mile hurdle champion sustained a hock injury and was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Newbury. Bookmakers have removed him from their lists for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham next March; Ladbrokes currently bet 3/1 Kasbah Bliss, 6/1 Punchestowns, Duc De Regniere, 8/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Elusive Dream, 16/1 Pettifour, Mobaasher.
There was over £1.5 million in the Scoop6 bonus pool on Saturday, with eight tickets covering over half the fifteen strong field that went to post for the Hennessy. Given that winning trainer David Pipe had told those who would listen not to back his Madison Du Berlais as the yard was going through a quiet spell, it wasn't a surprise to find the pot unclaimed. The sum will be carried over, probably to Cheltenham on Saturday 13th December.
It's likely to be a long, pressurised week for Sam Thomas, due to ride Master Minded in Saturday's Tingle Creek at Sandown. On each of the past two Saturdays he has parted company with his charge at the final flight of the day's feature race. The unseating from Big Buck's in the Hennessy didn't look great - I'm sure he's watched the replay a few times and will feel he could have stayed in the plate.
Browsing in the Leamington branch of Waterstone's over the weekend I came across Ross Newton's book The Tail End System; I had barely managed a quick glance before Mrs Tips started giving me earache about the Christmas shopping. In a nutshell, Newton gives details of a system that looks to make profits from backing outsiders in British National Hunt races from October to May. An outsider is considered anything that starts at 10/1 or bigger and Newton goes on to identify the tracks where this type of wager is most successful. The top tracks include Musselburgh, Ludlow, Towcester, Carlisle, Catterick and Perth; the striking thing for me was that of those six, five race right-handed.
Those who race at Ludlow on a regular basis are bound to be familiar with The Feathers Hotel, parts of which date back to 1619. In an accident on Friday evening, a bus mounted the pavement and crashed into the facade. The driver appears to have collapsed at the wheel and died at the scene.
Finally, make a note of the new Racing Post website - http://www.racingpost.com/
There was over £1.5 million in the Scoop6 bonus pool on Saturday, with eight tickets covering over half the fifteen strong field that went to post for the Hennessy. Given that winning trainer David Pipe had told those who would listen not to back his Madison Du Berlais as the yard was going through a quiet spell, it wasn't a surprise to find the pot unclaimed. The sum will be carried over, probably to Cheltenham on Saturday 13th December.
It's likely to be a long, pressurised week for Sam Thomas, due to ride Master Minded in Saturday's Tingle Creek at Sandown. On each of the past two Saturdays he has parted company with his charge at the final flight of the day's feature race. The unseating from Big Buck's in the Hennessy didn't look great - I'm sure he's watched the replay a few times and will feel he could have stayed in the plate.
Browsing in the Leamington branch of Waterstone's over the weekend I came across Ross Newton's book The Tail End System; I had barely managed a quick glance before Mrs Tips started giving me earache about the Christmas shopping. In a nutshell, Newton gives details of a system that looks to make profits from backing outsiders in British National Hunt races from October to May. An outsider is considered anything that starts at 10/1 or bigger and Newton goes on to identify the tracks where this type of wager is most successful. The top tracks include Musselburgh, Ludlow, Towcester, Carlisle, Catterick and Perth; the striking thing for me was that of those six, five race right-handed.
Those who race at Ludlow on a regular basis are bound to be familiar with The Feathers Hotel, parts of which date back to 1619. In an accident on Friday evening, a bus mounted the pavement and crashed into the facade. The driver appears to have collapsed at the wheel and died at the scene.
Finally, make a note of the new Racing Post website - http://www.racingpost.com/
Monday, November 03, 2008
The winter game
With the onset of winter, the jumping stars are making a welcome return to action. Kauto Star put in an exhibition round at Down Royal on Saturday and goes to Haydock in three weeks time. Arkle winner Tidal Bay won at Carlisle on Sunday, easily beating the other three runners which included the Royal and Sun Alliance winner Albertas Run over a distance of two and a half mile miles. Connections of Tidal Bay haven't yet decided over which distance(s) they're going to campaign their star this season; a hint has been dropped that he may take on Master Minded in the Tingle Creek at Sandown - Paul Nicholls has picked this up and is quoted as saying Tidal Bay will have to improve some more to get close to his charge. Albertas Run looks to have the Hennessy at Newbury as his target.
Nicky Henderson's Afsoun started long odds-on for his chasing debut at Warwick earlier today; Barry Geraghty just managed to get his mount home after the partnership made a mistake four out. I always think Warwick is a tricky course for the inexeprienced novice - the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and jumping is at a premium.
Exeter host the Haldon Gold Cup tomorrow. Twist Magic is likely to start favourite but I won't be rushing to back him running at this stiff course over a trip just shy of two miles two furlongs with the going described as good to soft. Having just looked through his form of last season, I still harbour suspicions the horse is something of a short finisher. Finding the winner isn't easy nonetheless - Natal should be competitive using last season's Kerrygold Champion Chase as a guideline but he would prefer better ground while Howle Hill can often ruin his chance with one erratic jump. In a trappy affair I'm considering taking a chance on Mahogany Blaze, a young horse with potential, from a yard bang in form. I'll see what the market looks like in the morning.
Nicky Henderson's Afsoun started long odds-on for his chasing debut at Warwick earlier today; Barry Geraghty just managed to get his mount home after the partnership made a mistake four out. I always think Warwick is a tricky course for the inexeprienced novice - the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and jumping is at a premium.
Exeter host the Haldon Gold Cup tomorrow. Twist Magic is likely to start favourite but I won't be rushing to back him running at this stiff course over a trip just shy of two miles two furlongs with the going described as good to soft. Having just looked through his form of last season, I still harbour suspicions the horse is something of a short finisher. Finding the winner isn't easy nonetheless - Natal should be competitive using last season's Kerrygold Champion Chase as a guideline but he would prefer better ground while Howle Hill can often ruin his chance with one erratic jump. In a trappy affair I'm considering taking a chance on Mahogany Blaze, a young horse with potential, from a yard bang in form. I'll see what the market looks like in the morning.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Sandown selections
Eight go to post for the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown tomorrow. Voy Por Ustedes is the clear form choice and has won on soft ground previously, something which can't be said for a number of his rivals. Voy is likely to start around 5/4, so I'm prepared to take an each way chance with Hoo La Baloo at around 20/1 provided the eight get to the start. The horse has a bit to find with the best of these on official ratings but he has won at Sandown and he'll handle the conditions.
I'd expect Moon Over Miami to continue his progress in the 2.05 but the price is likely to be prohibitive.
The finale is a competitive handicap chase over a distance just short of three and three quarter miles. Course and distance winner Tana River is no spring chicken, just a couple of weeks shy of his twelfth birthday, but he will make a bold bid to win this for a second consecutive year. Kilbeggan Blade looks the interesting one in this and gets the vote. I wouldn't totally discount McEvoy either, who was due to run in the four mile chase at Exeter today but was withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground.
I'd expect Moon Over Miami to continue his progress in the 2.05 but the price is likely to be prohibitive.
The finale is a competitive handicap chase over a distance just short of three and three quarter miles. Course and distance winner Tana River is no spring chicken, just a couple of weeks shy of his twelfth birthday, but he will make a bold bid to win this for a second consecutive year. Kilbeggan Blade looks the interesting one in this and gets the vote. I wouldn't totally discount McEvoy either, who was due to run in the four mile chase at Exeter today but was withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground.
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