Eight go to post for the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown tomorrow. Voy Por Ustedes is the clear form choice and has won on soft ground previously, something which can't be said for a number of his rivals. Voy is likely to start around 5/4, so I'm prepared to take an each way chance with Hoo La Baloo at around 20/1 provided the eight get to the start. The horse has a bit to find with the best of these on official ratings but he has won at Sandown and he'll handle the conditions.
I'd expect Moon Over Miami to continue his progress in the 2.05 but the price is likely to be prohibitive.
The finale is a competitive handicap chase over a distance just short of three and three quarter miles. Course and distance winner Tana River is no spring chicken, just a couple of weeks shy of his twelfth birthday, but he will make a bold bid to win this for a second consecutive year. Kilbeggan Blade looks the interesting one in this and gets the vote. I wouldn't totally discount McEvoy either, who was due to run in the four mile chase at Exeter today but was withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground.
Friday, December 07, 2007
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A brave run from Hoo La Baloo who raced prominently until two from home and was then run out of third place after the last. Opening at 25/1 on course, he was backed in to 12/1. Those who had gone to Sandown expecting to see Voy Por Ustedes, the even money favourite, take the spoils were in for a shock as Twist Magic (5/1) put in a top class performance to beat the current two mile champion by three lengths. This evening TM is a best priced 9/4 for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March; totesport offer just 6/4.
The market for the novice chase was more open than I'd anticipated. Moon Over Miami (9/4jf) disappointed, finishing a well beaten fourth behind the other joint favourite Marodima. Looking back through his record, MOM has failed to deliver several times on right handed tracks, although he did win a novice hurdle at Wincanton in May 2006. I'm puzzled by this running as he looked something special a couple of weeks' ago when winning at Cheltenham; the Cotswolds track obviously suits.
It's a long time since I've been on a horse knowing I've picked the right one with three quarters of a circuit still to complete, but that was the case in the finale as Kilbeggan Blade (4/1) clearly relished conditions and jumped very well for Paddy Brennan to win by twenty lengths from Tana River. It looked impressive; I'll be interested to see what the plans are now.
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