Friday, December 28, 2007

Newbury's last meeting of the year

In the opener at Newbury tomorrow Moon Over Miami sets a decent standard but Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's has been well touted beforehand and looks the one. In the 1.35 I'm prepared to give Air Force One a second chance. The novice's jumping went to pieces after an early mistake last time out but, according to The Weekender, he has since undergone intensive schooling at home. Charlie Mann considers the horse amongst the best he has trained and the stable are flying high at the moment. The Challow Novices' Hurdle looks competitive. Paul Nicholls' Elusive Dream is the top rated horse but went out like a light last time, being comprehensively beaten by Razor Royale on soft going at Cheltenham; ED wears a tongue tie for the first time tomorrow. As a general rule I'm not keen on horses that wear tongue ties when the going is soft. On official handciap ratings Zilcash should be in the mix but he has done most of his racing over two miles. Souffleur looked to have been given a lot to do when finishing third recently and has been kept busy this season. Venetia Williams' Lightning Strike has won twice this season, handles the ground and gets the vote. My guess is the stable think a bit about Swordsman by giving him an entry in this. I'll consider an each way wager if he's priced around the 12/1 mark.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Big Buck's (4/7f) was beaten half a length by Moon Over Miami (7/2). You can never be certain MOM will put his best foot forward; he did here and won with something in hand. Big Buck's didn't jump well and will need to brush up in that department if he is to achieve what many expect.
Air Force One was a non-runner.
They finished well strung out behind impressive winner Souffleur (7/1)in the Challow. If the horse had been given too much to do on his last run, Tom O'Brien hit the front 'a week too soon' (using his words) here. It mattered little as the partnership stayed on strongly to the line. Lightning Strike (3/1)was one of the first beaten, struggling to maintain his position after jumping the cross flight; he was pulled up before the last. On course Razor Royale was backed in to 11/4 favouritism but, held up at the back, he failed to get into it, finishing fourth. Swordsman, a 7/1 chance, weakened to finish a distant sixth.