Season's greetings.
Sixteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.
Market leader Monbeg Genius has three chase wins to his name - and two of those have come at Chepstow.
He was beaten 12 lengths by the mare Fontaine Collonges at Haydock three weeks ago and meets that rival five pounds better off, allowing for the three pound claim Ned Fox makes on Venetia Williams' charge.
His third behind Corach Rambler off 140 in the 2023 Ultima reads very well but a mark of 144 here looks stiff.
Stable jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr rides stablemate Iron Bridge who will be expected to come on for his seasonal debut when third behind Val Dancer at Carlisle (Your Own Story pulled up); the yard recorded a quick-fire double with Red Dirt Road and Fortunate Man at Aintree earlier today.
Iron Bridge finished a remote second off 142 behind Nassalam last year so looks feasibly treated on 136; Mel Rowley's charge has been raised five pounds for that Carlisle victory.
It's worth noting that in the past 20 years only five winners have managed to carry more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03, 2006); Synchronised (11-06, 2010); Native River (11-12, 2016); Elegant Escape (11-08, 2018); and Nassalam (11-03, 2023).
The mare Galia Des Liteaux was beaten threequarters of a length in the Classic Chase at Warwick last year before finishing eighth in the Aintree Grand National; trainer Dan Skelton indicated in a pre-season briefing that this race has been the target.
Sam Thomas saddles two, both making their seasonal debut - 2021 winner Iwilldoit and the seven-year-old Jubilee Express. The latter is much shorter in the market but has just four chase starts to his name.
Gordon Elliott saddles Where It All Began and Stuzzikini.
The former won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February before finishing fourth in the Kim Muir and then eighth in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse where he didn't jump particularly well.
The market suggests this one, wearing first-time blinkers, is the pick of the pair.
After pulling up behind Bangers And Cash in a handicap chase at Exeter in November 2022, The Newest One was campaigned solely over hurdles until winning an amateur riders' chase at Cheltenham in October (Amateur and Atlanta Brave both pulled up).
His fifth behind Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon at Cheltenham last time looks respectable and Twiston-Davies' charge won a novice hurdle by 19 lengths at this track last December.
Evies Vladimir wouldn't be the safest of conveyances while Classic Concorde has a high hurdle rating but hasn't run in a chase since June 2023.
Campaigned mostly on right-handed tracks, No Hubs No Hoobs won the Devon Stayers Handicap Chase at Exeter in April and finished 22 lengths behind Remastered on seasonal debut at Wincanton nine weeks ago.
I tipped Amateur each-way at 66/1 for this last year; racing from the front and jumping slightly right, he went well for a long way but had nothing more to give and was pulled up before the first in the home straight. He has been pulled up on all three starts this season.
Two each-way chances are on the radar.
Currently a 12/1 shot, Val Dancer has been backed in the run up to the race. After the win at Carlisle last time, trainer Mel Rowley said:
"Val Dancer did quite well last season and has really strengthened up and grown over the summer. He really wants cut in the ground and he could be a type for races like the Midlands Grand National."
Atlanta Brave's threequarters of a length second to Surrey Quest off a mark of 121 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase last December reads well (winner was subsequently beaten a nose by Macdermott in the Scottish Grand National).
Kerry Lee's charge has yet to win a race over the larger obstacles but was highlighted by Keith Melrose, Racing Post betting editor, as a horse to follow this season (The Big Jump Off, Racing Post Monday 21st October).
Just four days later the gelding was pulled up three out at Cheltenham; next time he was fourth of five, beaten five lengths by Roccovango at Uttoxeter.
The yard was slow into its stride this term but has recorded two wins from nine runs in the past fortnight (22% win strike-rate).
There's a hint this may be a year too soon but the fact Kerry Lee's inmate won a maiden hurdle at this track in January 2023 is a positive and I note connections have opted to fit cheekpieces for the first time.
Generally a 14/1 shot, Ladbrokes and Coral stand out offering 18/1 at the time of writing.
Atlanta Brave is the each-way suggestion, with both Ladbrokes and Coral paying five places.
6 comments:
Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase
The going remains soft, good to soft in places this morning.
Horse, Rating, Tissue
Iron Bridge [IRE], 160, 14/1
Iwilldoit [GB], 160, 11/1
Galia Des Liteaux [FR], 160, 11/1
The Newest One [IRE], 159, 14/1
Jubilee Express [FR], 159, 16/1
Fontaine Collonges [FR], 158, 14/1
Where It All Began [IRE], 158, 14/1
Val Dancer [IRE], 158, 10/1
Classic Concorde [IRE], 158, 16/1
Stuzzikini [IRE], 157, 14/1
Your Own Story [IRE], 157, 16/1
Atlanta Brave [IRE], 156, 28/1
Monbeg Genius [IRE], 156, 20/1
Evies Vladimir [IRE], 156, 28/1
No Hubs No Hoobs [IRE], 155, 25/1
Amateur [IRE], 150, 66/1
Only 10lbs between the top and bottom on my ratings and only 7lbs on Timeform’ free ratings on the ATR website suggests a tight affair and we perhaps should not be too surprised whatever comes home in front.
https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Chepstow/27-December-2024/1450
6yo’s don’t run too often in this but have a decent record when doing so, given this the race will hopefully not come too early in Atlanta Brave’s career, though the system expresses concern whether this extended trip will be ideal.
In the hunt for a value interest bet my dart has landed in Your Own Story. He does not get too much coverage in your excellent write up, but I’m hoping he simply was not fully ready when taking on Val Dancer at Carlisle. That run aside he’s been a pretty consistent performer, relishes 3 ½ miles+ on this sort of ground, retains the cheekpieces fitted LTO, 16/1 [5 places 1/5 odds] looks fair rather than generous but hopeful I’ll get a decent spin for my money.
Good luck!
TW
Perhaps I've done Your Own Story a disservice, TW.
His second behind Bretney in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso earlier this month merits every respect.
With the Russell / Scudamore partnership now up and running, I'm assuming the horse will have travelled down some time in advance. That's something I should look into in more detail - the performance of Lucinda Russell trained horses down south now the operation has a satellite yard based in England.
Good luck!
Chepstow can perhaps be seen as a negative for Your Own Story as even with the use of Eccleswall Court as a satellite yard I don't think you'd get rich following Lucinda's southern raiders, hopefully today might be an exception :-)
TW
Two each-way chances are on the radar. Currently a 12/1 shot, Val Dancer.....
Both blog selections very well backed [half the job done], hope you had a saver on Val Dancer.
TW
Afraid not, TW. Fortunately, I didn't see too much of it... ;)
It was difficult to see much of the action on account of fog.
Emerging from the gloom for the final time, Val Dancer (8/1) and Iwilldoit (10/1) appeared to have the race between them; the former prevailed while the latter was relegated to third by stablemate Jubilee Express (6/1jf) who finished like the proverbial train.
Selection Atlanta Brave (15/2) raced in midfield for much of the trip but weakened out of contention up the home straight, eventually finishing eighth, the best part of 30 lengths behind the winner.
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