Friday, June 06, 2014

Epsom Derby 2014

I usually indulge myself by taking a small interest in the Epsom Derby although my record in the race is thoroughly abysmal.

Tomorrow's renewal is a one horse affair according to layers who bet 7/1 the field bar favourite and form choice Australia, priced up at 6/4. Ruler Of The World was the biggest priced winner in the past decade when returned at odds of 7/1 last year.

The going is reported to be drying out but rain is forecast; I've used the Dante form to try and identify some each-way value. At York The Grey Gatsby beat Arod and True Story and was then turned out 17 days later to take the Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly.

True Story looked held when hampered a furlong from home in the Dante; several commentators felt he didn't give his true running that day and can reverse placings with second Arod who was staying on at the end. Fallon is bullish enough about True Story's chance in the Weekender while Aron's pilot Jamie Spencer would probably prefer the rain to stay away.

This evening BetVictor bet 18/1 Arod and 12/1 True Story; I'll support True Story each-way should any rain get into the ground, otherwise I'll chance Arod (each-way) - on Timeform ratings True Story is second and Aron fourth best of the sixteen runners in the field.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Australia (11/8f) won the 2014 Derby in the manner his price suggested he was entitled to.

Heavy rain fell at the track the morning of the race so I sided with True Story (8/1). Drawn wide enough in stall 3, Fallon chose to use plenty of petrol early on to secure a decent racing position; True Story held fourth spot for much of the trip but the distress signals were coming out as Tattenham corner approached and True Story faded to finish seventh.

Arod (20/1) ran a respectable race from stall 1 to confirm Dante form with True Story, coming home fourth beaten just over eight lengths.