Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017 - Thursday

Very brief notes compiled late Wednesday evening after returning from Cheltenham... 

1.30 JLT Novices' Chase
Following a cursory glance at the end of last week the opening JLT looked a pretty competitive affair to me with a couple of commentators describing it as 'hot' so I was mildly surprised to see Rob Wright from The Times say that essentially layers were offering 11/8 Yorkhill jumping round because if he jumps, he wins. Top Notch isn't the biggest but jumped impeccably around Sandown the last day, Paul Nicholls says Politologue is his best chance of the week and Disko is not lightly dismissed but may prefer more cut underfoot. RPR ratings: Top Notch 170, Politologue 168, Disko, Flying Angel 167, Yorkhill 163. Layers offer 6/4 Yorkhill at the time of writing; leave well alone.

2.10 Pertemps Network Final
There's a great story around Tobefair. Philip Hobbs' pair For Good Measure and Golden Doyen look closely matched; the former, owned by J.P. McManus, is shorter in the market but I prefer the latter who will appreciate the drying ground and has run well fresh in the past.

Golden Doyen is an each-way play 18/1 Sky Bet paying a fifth the odds six places.

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle
On more than one occasion this season I've opposed Unowhatimenaharry and I've the burnt fingers to prove it. Cole Harden helped me to (barely) break even at this meeting in 2015 and he showed an improved level of form on soft ground behind Harry Fry's hotpot last time. I'm hoping to see further improvement on better ground; he needs to find the best part of ten lengths but at around 9/1 he represents an each-way bet to nothing.

Late evening update 15.03.17 - best price 15/2 is too short.

4.10 Brown Advisory Plate
I've seen more tips for this than you can shake a stick at. Regular readers will know that after a visit to Robin Dickin's yard in the autumn I've been following Thomas Crapper closely. After a series of reasonable runs without getting placed he turned up at Newbury twelve days ago where the going was pretty desperate. I did the sensible thing, kept my money in my back pocket and he trotted up 20 lengths clear; I've since gone through a box of man-sized Kleenex every day. The one consolation was that after the race Charlie Poste had the good grace to say the ground was 'an unknown'. The handicapper has only raised him five pounds for that last run and, bless my old boots, he has just made the cut... Threats in a ferociously competitive event include Diamond King, Starchitect (widely tipped up) and Sizing Codelco, put up by Colin Tizzard as one of his best chances at the entire meeting.  All that said on RPRs Thomas is 176 and nearest rivals Voix D'Eau, Sizing Codelco and Henryville are rated 169.

Call it a hangover but I simply have to play Thomas Crapper each-way at 9/1 with Betfred paying a quarter the odds five places.


Anonymous said...

Switch over to the New course. Overnight watering but overall drying ground.

I like Top Notch in the JLT but 4/1 was the minimum I was looking for, Paddy Power have just pushed him out to 9/2 so I’ve taken an interest.

I narrowed the Pertemps down to two possible value bets; Golden Doyen and Ballymalin. At the bigger odds of 251/ I’ve opted for Ballymain, he’s looked quite progressive over hurdles this term and in his first step in to handicap company did enough to qualify for this final, I like the booking of Noel Fehily.

The Ryanair looks to be priced about right.

I don’t want to take on Uknowwhatimeanharry, but in the without the favourite market I think your old friend Lil Rokerfeller is over priced at 20/1 (EW). Said by Neil King to have come back wrong after his last race he can hopefully bounce back here stepped back up to 3miles.

I honed in on three possible big priced selections for the Brown Advisory Plate. Pinkie Brown could be exceptionally well handicapped , through his 2nd to Forest Bihan, off 137 and at 66/1 I have to have a small EW play. Tango De Julliey is only 1lb higher than when 2nd in this last year and again comes in to the race after full year off the track it could go well again but I’ll let him run at 25/1. Voix D’eau is my main bet. The ground has come for him, his last 2 runs over 3 miles have allowed his mark to drop to only 1lb above his last winning mark and he is again helped by Mikey Legg’s 5lb claim. I managed to get 40/1 last night but the generally available 33/1 is still value as he could run a big race. Thomas Crapper? I think he will run a big race under his 5lb penalty (handicapper put him up 10lbs for the Newbury win) and he may well win but odds of around 10/1 probably over play his chance.

Willie Mullins might finally get at winner in the Mares race but not necessarily ridden by Ruby Walsh; I’ll only be watching.

I think Tom George has a good chance of taking the Amateur’s race and I’ve opted to support the father/son team of Forgotten Gold at 40/1. He’s an 11yo but showed he still retains his ability when winning a veteran’s race last November will love the condition’s and goes very well fresh. Easy to imagine family chat around the kitchen table of Father Tom trying to find Son Noel a winner on his first festival ride and it would certainly make a good story for tomorrow’s papers!

Good luck


GeeDee said...

Hi TW,

Thanks for the Thomas Crapper correction. You're right, he's not a value play at the price; it's just I couldn't bear it if he won and I didn't have an interest...

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

A great effort by Thomas Crapper but on the day Road to Respect was clear of the field, hopefully the place return allowed you to break even on the day.

Cracking run from Lil Rockerfeller, just for a moment I thought he was going to it!

Normal service resumed on the Mullins/Walsh front.


GeeDee said...

Listened to the Stayers' Hurdle on Radio 5, TW - was willing Lil Rockerfeller on. I thought he needed more juice in the ground but clearly not. He's had an interrupted preparation this year; they have to try again next year - with a clear run, he must go close...

GeeDee said...

Davy Russell and Presenting Percy (11/1) came home in front of the Pertemps field; selection Golden Doyen (18/1) didn't appear particularly well-named, remaining fairly anonymous to come home twelfth.

Thomas Crapper (7/1) ran a decent race to finish fourth but had no chance behind Road To Respect (14/1) who had six lengths to spare over his nearest challenger.