Friday, January 18, 2008

Haydock and Ascot tomorrow

The clerks at both Haydock and Ascot have said they're optimistic racing will take place tomorrow but, having just seen the weather forecast, I think it will be a close call; both courses are scheduled to hold inspections in the morning.

In the opener at Haydock Paul Nicholls' Five Dream will be sent off a short priced favourite. In the previous eight runnings of this race the winner has come from the top three in the betting. For me the interesting one is Sir Harry Ormesher. This horse has decent form with Deep Purple on unsuitably fast ground; he was pulled out of the Tolworth two weeks ago and is known to appreciate some cut, but whether he'll act on going this heavy is another matter altogether. Looking back through his form, I see he has previously boiled over in the preliminaries; I'll consider an each way dabble at around 12/1.

The Champion Hurdle Trial (1.25) looks a match between Afsoun and Straw Bear and I prefer Straw Bear. Torkinking is only small but as tough as old boots, will probably make the running and has conditions to suit. If he's allowed an easy lead, he could possibly stay on into a place.

The Peter Marsh Chase looks very competitive; the one that catches my eye is Simon who will act on the ground and stay all day.

In the finale What A Buzz is a strapping horse with reasonable each way prospects who has run well on heavy ground previously, but I'll wait until tomorrow before deciding whether to back him or not.

At Ascot I'll be watching the Victor Chandler Chase and the Lightning Novices' Chase closely but I won't get involved. Twist Magic is expected to win the VC and shore up his position at the head of the Champion Chase market, while the novice chase looks between Mahogany Blaze and Marodima. I prefer the former, although, as the season has progressed, I think Marodima has learned to settle better. Wee Robbie is highly regarded but has been racing over further and could possibly come on for this, his first run of the season.

Generally, with the size of tomorrow's fields on the small side, I thought it might be worth looking at a Scoop6 wager, but the crafty devils at Totesport have included four all-weather races from Lingfield for this week's offering. For the record the races are: Lingfield 1.55, Lingfield 2.25, Lingfield 3.00, Haydock 3.05, Lingfield 3.35, Haydock 3.40.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

The meeting at Haydock was lost to the weather, which was a bit of a shame really as I expected all those selections to deliver... :-)

At Ascot Twist Magic was turned over by the David Pipe trained 12/1 shot Tamarinbleu. TM looked to be travelling sweetly but the desperate ground took its toll as Tamarinbleu stayed on strongly to the line. Paul Nicholls said immediately after the race that he wouldn't run the horse on ground like that again.

A thrilling finish to the Lightning Novices' Chase saw Wee Robbie (7/2) nailing the brave Mahogany Blaze (2/1) in the shadow of the post.