Friday, April 14, 2023

Aintree Grand National 2023

Lottery won the first official running of the Grand National in 1839.

According to Tom Segal writing in the Weekender, trying to find the winner of the Grand National has become a lot more of a lottery since 2006. 

Last year 21 of the 40 runners (52.5%) were trained in Ireland; this year the figure is 27 (67.5%). Sam Brown is the only British trained runner set to carry more than 11-00.

No horse older than nine has come home in front since Pineau De in 2014; last year Noble Yeats was the first seven year old to win since Bogskar in 1940.

The hurdle, Mildmay and National courses were all watered after racing on Thursday evening. Following significant rain today, the going on all courses was changed to soft after the Poundland Top Novices' Hurdle at 2.55.

At the time of writing Rachael Blackmore's mount Ain't That A Shame is clear favourite at 8/1 with Delta Work 9/1 and Corach Rambler drifting out to 10/1 in places.

The last horse to carry more than 11-09 to victory was Red Rum in 1974. 

The top three in the handicap for tomorrow's renewal - Any Second Now (second behind Noble Yeats last year and third behind Minella Times in 2021), last year's winner Noble Yeats and Galvin all look to face a stiff task at the weights.

In behind Noble Yeats and Any Second Now last year were Delta Work (third), Longhouse Poet (sixth), Coko Beach (eighth), Escaria Ten (ninth) with Fortescue unseating four from home.  

Included among those with an enhanced chance now the rain has arrived are Sam Brown, Carefully Selected, Coko Beach, The Big Dog, The Big Breakaway, Roi Mage (just over a length behind Longhouse Poet last time out), Dunboyne, Fortescue and Hill Sixteen.

For those who like to make their own selections, the BBC's pinstickers' guide may be of some use.

For everyone else, here's my idea of the first four past the post together with the best value longshot.

1. Le Milos

Beat Corach Rambler in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on ground considered quicker than ideal. The Skelton yard nominated this race as the next target and indicated their charge wasn't fully wound up when collared on the run-in by Empire Steel at Kelso last month.

2. Corach Rambler

Won the Ultima at Cheltenham 32 days ago and is now ten pounds 'well in' off a mark of 146. Tends to race in rear and make his ground towards the business end of a race which comes with risks. Regular jock Derek Fox has been passed fit and rode One For Arthur from well off the pace to come home in front in 2017.

3. Noble Yeats

Races off a mark 19 pounds higher than last year but made impressive late headway to pip Protektorat for fourth place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month.

4. Coko Beach

The Gordon Elliot trained grey ran well for a long way in last year's race and comes here in better form this time around. Jumps well generally and likes to race up with the pace; the booking of Harry Cobden looks a bonus.


The best value longshot to my mind is Hill Sixteen, at the time of writing 100/1 with William Hill and bet365 who both pay six places. Sandy Thomson's charge was beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess over these fences in the 2021 Becher Chase. 

He came home seventh behind Ashtown Lad in the 2022 Becher and subsequently underwent wind surgery. Although he was the first one beaten at Kelso three weeks ago, he goes off a featherweight 10-02 tomorrow. This has been the plan; the rain will help his cause and I'd like to think first-time cheekpieces will do likewise.


As always, remember to check each-way terms when placing your bets. 

Sky Bet and Betway are paying seven places. I noted William Hill and Betfred paying six places online but only five places in High St. shops.

It just remains for me to wish you all the very best of luck!


Sandracer said...

Carefully Selected @ 66's. If it rains a bit tonight, not many will like it as much as the Mullins outsider..

GeeDee said...

Good luck, Sandracer!

GeeDee said...

Animal rights protesters caused a delay to the start of the 175th Grand National; the official off time is recorded as 5:29:33.

Nicky Henderson has yet to train a National winner but Mister Coffey (33/1) held a significant advantage four from home; unfortunately the petrol ran out and he finished eighth.

Derek Fox sent Corach Rambler (8/1f) on to win his race after the last but he didn't look the easiest ride out in front; the chasing pack, led by Vanillier (20/1), made late inroads but Lucinda Russell's charge had two and a quarter lengths in hand on the line.

Gaillard Du Mesnil (10/1) claimed third, last year's winner Nobel Yeats fourth (10/1) and The Big Dog fifth (12/1).

In a sad postscript Hill Sixteen (80/1) became particularly distressed with the enforced delay to the start and fell fatally at the first.