Five of the ten declared for the 63rd running of the Badger Beer Handicap Chase (3.30 Wincanton) have still to record a victory over three miles or beyond, yet I'm struggling to find an each-way angle that makes much appeal.
With the price about Forward Plan shortening markedly this afternoon, I've decided to take a quick look at the Grand Sefton (2.40 Aintree) instead.
The going on the National course is described as good to soft, good in places and 13 are set to face the starter.
Current favourite Frero Bambou was third in this last year off 133 but hasn't won a chase beyond two miles one and a half furlongs in 26 attempts.
Percussion, second last year off 128, has a good record over these fences but hasn't come home in front - third in the 2022 renewal and third in both the 2022 and 2023 renewals of the Becher Chase.
Veteran Latenightpass also boasts a good record over this course and distance, having finished second in the 2021 Foxhunters before going one better to win the 2022 renewal and then finishing fifth last year. Strong family ties surround this horse - the gelding is owned and bred by Pippa, mother of trainer Tom Ellis, with Gina Andrews, the trainer's wife, in the plate.
Six-year-old King Turgeon has plenty of experience over fences for one so young and appeared to have made significant progress during the summer months when seen winning at Chepstow 11 days ago; he races from out of the handicap.
Idalkho Bihoue, the other six-year-old in the line-up, has just four chase starts to his name and has, in the past, raced from the front. Since 2004 only one six-year-old has collected the spoils - As De Mee in 2016.
Sure Touch brings strong form to the table having pipped Soul Icon a neck in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in July. The gelding has been trained specifically for this race since that run with handler Olly Murphy issuing an upbeat bulletin earlier in the week.
Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero won this last year with the ill-fated Gesskille and will be hoping for a good run from Gaboriot. This one has been well supported in the market this evening; Mr Harry Myddelton looked a tad unfortunate to unseat at the Canal Turn in this year's Foxhunters.
I've tended to associate Outlaw Peter with right-handed tracks - Kempton in particular - but his defeat of Soul Icon at Ayr in April while conceding seven pounds merits every respect; on a line through Soul Icon he would appear to have the beating of Sure Touch. However several from the Nicholls' yard have needed their first run of the season.
Harpers Brook had wind surgery at the end of June and makes his debut for the Skelton stable. In the past this one has pulled himself up when getting to the front although on his penultimate start he beat Sacre Coeur seven lengths at Sandown off a mark of 136. There's a long run-in here; caution advised.
Authorised Art finished second behind Ash Tree Meadow in the 2023 Galway Plate when trained by Willie Mullins. Now with Gary and Josh Moore, he has his share of weight on this first chase start for new connections.
Last time seen Richmond Lake weakened after the final flight in the Topham, eventually coming home 29 lengths behind winner Arizona Cardinal (Frero Banbou pulled up) while Irish raider Galon De Vauzelle won easily at Listowel six weeks ago but is another to race from out of the handicap.
Vintage Fizz had the Summer Plate at Market Rasen as his main summer target; he finished sixth behind Sure Touch, beaten over 16 lengths. Five and a half weeks later he was sent off 5/2 favourite for a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Worcester where he ran no race at all behind Kinondo Kwetu.
Given a break, he returned at Wetherby three weeks ago; he appeared to hold a slight advantage jumping the last before finishing fourth behind the well-regarded Jagwar, beaten just over three lengths.
Compared to Market Rasen, Jedd O'Keefe's charge meets Sure Touch nine pounds better off here, is just one pound higher than his last winning mark, and is possibly better going left-handed.
I keep coming back to the Summer Plate form and, to my mind, Vintage Fizz looks overpriced at 40/1 with William Hill (4 places) and 28/1 with Sky (5 places). I'm hoping he takes to the fences and runs his race.
Only for those with a particularly strong constitution, Vintage Fizz is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 28/1 with Sky who pay five places.
3 comments:
Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.
Good luck!
Only for those with a particularly strong constitution, Vintage Fizz is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 28/1 with Sky who pay five places.
Very well done, you should have took that 40/1 4 places :-)
TW
King Turgeon (9/2) jumped well at the head of affairs in the Grand Sefton.
The grey was headed by Frero Bambou (10/1) at the Canal Turn but remained prominent with Percussion (12/1), Outlaw Peter (15/2) and Richmond Lake (18/1) others to race with the pace.
King Turgeon went on again after the penultimate flight as two emerged from the chasing pack - selection Vintage Fizz (16/1) and Gaboriot (10/1).
Vintage Fizz finished second without ever threatening the impressive leader while Gaboriot finished third and Richmond Lake fourth.
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