Friday, November 15, 2024

The 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Fifteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham); the going on the Old Course is described as good, good to soft in places.

Last season Ginny's Destiny won three chases at the track (one on the Old Course, two on the New) before finishing second behind Grey Dawning in the Turners Novices' Chase at the Festival - a mistake at the penultimate flight looked costly.

It's no surprise to see Paul Nicholls' charge priced up clear favourite but his profile suggests he may prefer more cut in the ground and, to date, the gelding has not won on seasonal debut - he missed his intended prep at Newton Abbot as the meeting was abandoned  

Stablemate Stage Star won this last year off a mark of 155 on seasonal debut and is the only favourite to have obliged in the past decade.

Ga Law won the 2022 renewal off 142 and tries to repeat the trick this year off 155. 

Jamie Snowden's charge ran well when second behind Grandeur D'Ame at Chepstow five weeks ago (Il Ridoto fifth, Editeur Du Gite ninth and Jetoile last of 10 runners). 

Il Ridoto finished fourth behind Ga Law in the 2022 renewal off 140 and third last year behind Stage Star off 144. 

Still only seven years old, this represents his second run after wind surgery in July. Although technically running from out of the handicap, Il Ridoto can compete from his correct mark courtesy of Freddie Gingell's three pound claim. 

Formerly trained by Gordon Elliott, Imagine cost 320,000 euros and has his first run for Harry Dereham; with just three starts over fences to his name, Imagine is the least experienced chaser in this field.

I'm a fan of  Protektorat who did me a favour when winning the Ryanair at the Festival in March. 

Dan Skelton's inmate has to give a minimum of 12 pounds to his opponents and, to my mind, really wants soft ground to be seen at his best. His participation means five race from out of the handicap: Hartur d'Arc; Madara; Il Ridoto; Straw Fan Jack; and Weveallbeencaught.

Lets Go Champ ran out of petrol in the closing stages of the Galway Plate in the summer, eventually finishing sixth - beaten eight and a half lengths - behind Pinkerton. The step back in trip here should help his cause and good ground suits.  

Not for the first time In Excelsis Deo's jumping was peppered with mistakes in the Galway Plate while Janadil fell at the first. Connections try first time blinkers on Janadil; the last horse older than nine years of age to come home in front was Clear Cut in 1975.

Of Hartur d'Arc trainer Gavin Cromwell says in this week's RP Weekender:

"He was very good in the Leinster National [3m 1f] and I'm not sure he stayed the trip in the Irish National [3m 5f] on his final run. He isn't a slow horse and we'll bring him back in trip for his first run back - he's in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham's November meeting and he could go back there at some point, maybe in December."

Irish trained runners don't have a strong record in the race; the last Irish trained horse to collect the spoils, Tranquil Sea in 2009, was the first Irish winner for 29 years.

Fugitif, fourth in this last year off 153, beat Il Ridoto a short head in the December Gold Cup four weeks later but, along with Ga Law, was subsequently pulled up behind Protektorat in the Ryanair.

Of those at fancy prices the most interesting is possibly Weveallbeencaught on his third run for Christian Williams. In first time cheekpieces this one finished half a length behind Lisnamult Lad over course and distance three weeks ago; enthusiasm is tempered by the fact he is 10 pounds 'wrong' at the weights.

It's a bold decision by Team Skelton to allow Protektorat to take his chance; his presence gives the handicap a rather lop-sided feel. In a race that more often than not goes the way of a young chaser, I've struggled to find an each-way wager. 

After some deliberation I've decided to take an each-way interest in Henry De Bromhead's lightly raced nine-year-old Lets Go Champ on this step back to two and a half miles; Mike O'Connor can claim three.

Lets Go Champ is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 11/1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes, both paying four places. 

Finally, it's early days, I know, but glancing at Sunday's Greatwood Hurdle (3.30 Cheltenham) northern raiders Cracking Rhapsody and Florida Dreams are closely matched on form and both are of interest at around 25/1. 

7 comments:

TW said...

Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Horse, Rating, Tissue
Ga Law [FR], 183, 5/1
Ginny's Destiny [IRE], 180, 6/1
In Excelsis Deo [FR], 181, 8/1
Lets Go Champ [IRE], 177, 9/1
Protektorat [FR], 177, 10/1
Jetoile [IRE], 175, 18/1
Weveallbeencaught [IRE], 168, 25/1
Imagine [FR], 164, 25/1
Il Ridoto [FR], 170, 25/1
Fugitif [FR], 167, 28/1
Janidil [FR], 166, 28/1
Straw Fan Jack [GB], 171, 28/1
Hartur d'Arc [FR], 162, 33/1
Madara [FR], 165, 50/1
Editeur Du Gite [FR], 164, 66/1

I’m not sure the trip was an issue at Galway for Lets Go Champ but either way he certainly has conditions to suit today, connections are in fine form, the 3lb claim a plus and the system rates him a 9/1 shot so value in the 11/1 you’ve taken.

A bit of after timing on my part but I plumped for my system top rated GA Law and took 13/2 yesterday win only. He went down a different route at the start of last season and it did not work out. Back over more suitable conditions saw him in a better light and I’m feel he can still be competitive in this renewal of a mark off 155 and at least give me a run for my money.

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.

Ga Law would be my idea of the winner - 9/2 in places now.

Good luck!

TW said...

Lets Go Champ is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 11/1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes, both paying four places.

Cracking effort, well done.

GeeDee said...

Ga Law making ground all the way up the hill, TW.
His jumping wasn't foot perfect on this occasion.

TW said...

Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

Horse, Rating, Tissue
Black Poppy [GB], 156, 7/1
Be Aware [FR], 152, 17/2
Burdett Road [GB], 149, 11/1
Under Control [FR], 147, 11/1
Go Dante [GB], 146, 14/1
Cracking Rhapsody [IRE], 149, 14/1
Fiercely Proud [IRE], 151, 14/1
Anyharminasking [IRE], 147, 16/1
Florida Dreams [IRE], 149, 16/1
Tintintin [FR], 148, 25/1
Royal Way [FR], 148, 25/1
Dysart Enos [IRE], 132, 25/1
Toll Stone [IRE], 134, 25/1
Teddy Blue [GER], 144, 33/1
Jacovec Cavern [GB], 140, 50/1
Napper Tandy [GB], 140, 50/1

AWOL tomorrow so thought I’d post this comment today.

Cracking Rhapsody and Florida Dreams both look to have some value but might struggle for win purposes according to my system.

Black Poppy does not have the right profile for this race, has bled and his top rated 156 - achieved in the Christmas hurdle - almost certainly flatters him…..but then again, his 2nd to a very well handicapped Our Champ off just 1lb lower than today’s mark last October over CD reads well enough and he was not disgraced at Market Rasen over the summer. Unlikely to win and in the hope that there is not too much rain this evening, I’ve still been sucked in to a small EW bet at 33/1 5 places 1/5 odds.

Good luck if you find a bet.

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for these ratings, TW.
I'll do a bit of spadework this evening.

Good luck!

GeeDee said...

In the Paddy Power Gold Cup Lets Go Champ (15/2) raced prominently behind Editeur Du Gite (100/1) early on and then took up the running after Gary Moore's charge made a bad mistake at the water which effectively ended his chance.
The selection, still at the head of affairs as they turned for home, looked vulnerable and so it proved.
He was quickly passed by eventual winner Il Ridoto (10/1) at the penultimate flight and lost second place to Ga Law (9/2) up the hill, coming home third, some six lengths behind the winner, with Madara (16/1) running a remarkable race to finish fourth on his first run for Dan Skelton.
Given that Ga Law had finished the best part of 20 lengths ahead of Il Ridoto at Chepstow five weeks ago, I imagine connections of the second would be feeling a tad frustrated this evening but the gelding's jumping wasn't so assured on occasions here and probably cost the runner-up his chance of victory.