Friday, November 01, 2024

The 2024 Sodexo Live! Gold Cup at Ascot

Shocked and saddened to hear today of the death of Alastair Down, barely one week after the press room at Cheltenham had been renamed in his honour.

On last week's annual pilgrimage to the Ludlow races, the thick fog enshrouding Cleehill proved the precursor to a chastening day of sport with monies wagered remaining firmly ensconced in bookmakers' satchels. 

In the novice hurdle La Marquise, third in the mares' bumper at Aintree in April, looked in a spot of bother off the home bend yet, despite being hampered by Oh My Johnny three out, still won going away from Kalium while So Said I, well supported for the Queen Boudicca Mares' Chase Series Qualifier, was rather outpaced from four out, eventually finishing fifth.

During the evening debrief (held, of course, in a local hostelry), I happened to chance upon two part-owners of So Said I who indicated the mare ideally needs more cut underfoot. 

The same owners also had a strong word for Tennessee Tango - on racecourse debut the gelding foiled a gamble in the bumper at Wincanton on Sunday - who could be a Cheltenham horse in the making.

11 have been declared for the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3.45 Ascot) where the going is described as good.

Kim Bailey saddles two course and distance winners: favourite Chianti Classico and veteran Two For Gold. 

The former won the Ultima at Cheltenham in March off a mark of 143 and now races off 152.

The latter had no answer to 20/1 winner Victtorino in this race last year on his seasonal debut but ran well nonetheless to finish a six length second. 

Both horses would ideally prefer more give underfoot.

Senior Chief and The Short Go advertised the well-being of Henry De Bromhead's string at Cheltenham last weekend - the yard has sent out eight winners from 29 runners in the past fortnight - and Amirite runs for the Irish handler tomorrow. 

The gelding's one chase win came at Fairyhouse over two miles five furlongs in October 2022. 

His fifth off this mark behind Minella Cocooner in the bet365 Gold Cup reads well and he ran well for a long way sporting first-time cheekpieces in the Galway Plate back in July before fading after the last. The cheekpieces have been left off here; good ground suits.

Our Power won this race on seasonal debut in 2022 off 136; on his next run he pipped Flegmatik a neck in the Coral Trophy at Kempton. 

The target last year was the Coral Gold Cup but racing in midfield Sam Thomas' charge fell at the 14th fence and hasn't been seen since. 

The trainer has said his charge will come on for the run.

Highstakesplayer certainly looks a player here and has been backed accordingly. Tipped up as a progressive sort in a number of places, I just wonder if he'd prefer this race were run at Kempton.

Neon Moon, who did me a favour at Ludlow on seasonal debut last year, won the Native River at Chepstow on seasonal debut this year and is effectively now just four pounds higher. 

To my mind, he looked a tad fortunate that day as both Pull Again Green and Manofthepeople made an error at the third last which left the door open. 

In the past he hasn't always managed to back up a good performance next time out.

Hidden Depths and Mylesfromwicklow look closely matched on recent Market Rasen running. 

The former takes a step up in class while trainer Dan Skelton has said he doesn't see this trip a problem for the latter who holds an each-way chance. 

Skelton also saddles Flegmatik who beat Chianti Classico two lengths at Kempton in January; on a strict reading of the formbook the gelding is weighted to confirm placings. 

However he finished well behind Grandeur D'Ame at Chepstow three weeks ago, sent off at odds of 50/1, and connections have once again decided to leave the cheekpieces off.  

Solo tries this trip for the first time and would ideally prefer more cut while Kitty's Light probably has targets later in the season.

At the time of writing the money is for the top four in the market. 

I'm going to take an each-way chance with Neon Moon who will like the ground and has run well at Ascot before. In the past David Pipe's charge has struggled to back up a good performance next time out but this represents his second run since wind surgery in July.

Neon Moon is the each-way suggestion; at the time of writing William Hill stand out offering 11/1 paying three places. 

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Alastair Down, sad news indeed.

Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Horse, Rating, Tissue
Highstakesplayer [IRE], 160, 11/2
Mylesfromwicklow [IRE], 162, 15/2
Hidden Depths [IRE], 162, 8/1
Neon Moon [IRE], 163, 17/2
Chianti Classico [IRE], 159, 17/2
Solo [FR], 156, 10/1
Two For Gold [IRE], 162, 11/1
Amirite [IRE], 159, 14/1
Our Power [IRE], 146, 20/1
Kitty's Light [GB], 156, 25/1
Flegmatik [FR], 153, 33/1

My system has suggested a tissue price of 17/2 for Neon Moon, so that 11/1 certainly looks a bit of value. Highstakesplayer looked a bet yesterday at 9/1+ but that has disappeared overnight. Despite Dan’s comment Mylesfromwicklow still needs to prove himself at this trip, that’s not the case with Hidden Depths, so at 12/1+ HD could be another value EW play at current odds.

On balance I could not find a big enough edge for a bet.

Best of luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Good to hear from you again, TW, and thanks for providing your ratings.

Share your reservations about Mylesfromwicklow at this trip.

TW said...

Neon Moon is the each-way suggestion; at the time of writing William Hill stand out offering 11/1 paying three places.

Well done!

TW

GeeDee said...

A respectable start to the core season, TW... :)

GeeDee said...

An exceptional weight-carrying performance from favourite Chianti Classico (11/4f) who made all to win.

Highstakesplayer (9/2) and selection Neon Moon (11/2) had raced prominently throughout and came to deliver their challenge at the penultimate flight; it was Highstakesplayer who proved the main threat to the favourite approaching the last.

A fine leap sealed the spoils for Tom Bellamy and Chianti Classico with Highstakeplayer three lengths adrift in second and the selection a further length and a quarter adrift in third.

After the race the vet reported Neon Moon had lost his left hind shoes.