Friday, November 22, 2024

A Haydock manifestation

How times have changed! 

These days dictionaries tend to have their very own 'word of the year' - can you believe it? - and this year Cambridge Dictionary's is 'manifest' which, apparently, can mean "to imagine achieving something you want, in the belief that doing so will make it more likely to happen".

Writing in yesterday's Times, Deborah Ross informed readers that both singer Dua Lipa and gymnast Simone Biles have put their success down to manifesting.

Having followed jump racing for a number of years, I'm obliged to report that I gave up on manifesting quite some time ago - although I didn't call it manifesting at the time - primarily because, to put it bluntly, it didn't work, no matter how hard I tried to visualise all my race day selections coming home in front...

Here's another selection to add to that long list of runners that in the past I imagined would come home in front but which manifestly failed to do so.

The going at Haydock is currently described as good to soft, with the weather forecast that I'm looking at predicting light showers. 

Beat The Bat heads the market for the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle (1.15). 

Harry Fry's charge hasn't been seen for the best part of twelve months, having finished just under three lengths behind Dysart Enos - a creditable third in the Greatwood last Sunday - in a novice hurdle at Cheltenham last December. 

He was carrying a penalty that day and has his first run in handicap company here off a mark of 132, a mark Robbie Wilders feels can be exploited at some stage this season [RP Weekender 06-10.11.24].

Doyen Quest heads the market for the Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at 2.30, having won at Cheltenham in facile fashion last Saturday; prior to that run Dan Skelton's charge was beaten four lengths by Josh The Boss in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow. 

That form reads well; owned by John Neild, Josh The Boss is regularly ridden by his son Mr Jamie Neild who can claim a valuable seven pounds.

Four weeks ago Kamsinas won an Aintree handicap hurdle over two and a half miles with Bowenspark third, Ballygeary fifth and the mare Lavida Adiva sixth. 

Bowenspark was beaten three and a quarter lengths that day, his first run in a handicap, and he meets the winner four pounds better off here; connections have opted to fit a visor for the first time. 

Sam Thomas has his string in excellent form - three wins from six runners in the past fortnight. 

He saddles Steel Ally who was beaten a neck by Doyen Quest conceding 12 pounds at Newbury in March and was beaten a length by Lump Sum conceding five pounds in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las six weeks ago. 

The handicapper raised Steel Ally three pounds for that effort but the rise is offset by Dylan Johnson's three pound claim. This represents his first try beyond two miles and a half furlong.

Course winning form is always worth noting at this track and Punta Del Este won over course and distance last December. 

This French bred took a while to acclimatise over here and loves heavy ground. After his charge won a handicap hurdle at Ayr in April at odds of 25/1, handler Dan Skelton said:

"That was a complete surprise. Punta Del Este is a funny horse, he's obviously got ability and he won very well at Haydock in the winter but he kind of runs as he wants to and I'm not a great predictor of him." 

Connections took Anyharminasking out of the Greatwood on Sunday on account of the ground. 

Back in October 2023 I felt he would have beaten Nemean Lion with a good jump at the last in the Welsh Champion Hurdle but he hung left-handed on the run to the line and, to my mind, has struggled to reproduce similar form since.

Having failed to complete in two novice chases, last year's winner Park Annonciade reverts to the smaller obstacles and tries to repeat the trick off a mark just two pounds higher; enthusiasm is tempered by the fact he took a heavy fall at Ayr just three weeks ago.

Off a mark of 123 Fine Casting beat Jungle Jack 11 lengths over course and distance in December 2022 but Ben Pauling's charge hasn't won since.

This looks a difficult introduction to handicap company for four-year-old Knight Of Allen and we haven't seen a lot of N'Golo since he won the 2022 Swinton Hurdle. 

Lively Citizen's profile suggests two miles is his trip while Dans Le Vent won the 2021 running of the Stayers' Hurdle on this card but will be 12 years of age on January 1st.

A competitive renewal. I've spent much of the afternoon visualising Sam Twiston-Davies going on after the final flight to carry Trevor Hemmings' famous colours to victory. 

Bowenspark is the each-way suggestion, currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill and bet365, all paying four places.

5 comments:

TW said...

The going at Haydock is currently described as good to soft, with the weather forecast that I'm looking at predicting light showers.

My manifestation of the Haydock weather forecast [courtesy of the Met Office] suggests the rain will be much more significant than light showers!

Horse, Rating, Tissue
Josh The Boss [GB], 150, 13/2
Punta Del Este [FR], 145, 17/2
Steel Ally [FR], 149, 9/1
Kamsinas [FR], 148, 11/1
Lavida Adiva [IRE], 148, 11/1
Anyharminasking [IRE], 147, 11/1
Bowenspark [IRE], 148, 12/1
Fine Casting [IRE], 148, 16/1
N'Golo [IRE], 145, 18/1
Knight Of Allen [FR], 141, 20/1
Lively Citizen [IRE], 142, 28/1
Ballygeary [IRE], 140, 33/1
Beat The Bat [IRE], 132, 50/1
Park Annonciade [FR], 136, 50/1
Dans Le Vent [FR], 132, 50/1

Whilst I'm expecting the ground to end up quite testing, I'm holding back on further study until tomorrow.

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for your ratings, TW!

TW said...

The going at Haydock Park this morning is Soft, Good to Soft (in places) with a further 8mm of rain expected to fall before post time. Doyen Quest (Going) is a notable non runner in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

I’m sure my system has underestimated the chance of Beat The Bat [something for me to work on] but the gelding still looks short enough in the market to be consider a betting option.

At bigger odds I’m going to take an EW punt on the mare Lavida Adiva, she had a progressive profile on the Northern circuit last season and showed that she could mix it at a higher level when running very well at Cheltenham. I’m willing to over look LA’s underwhelming seasonal debut in Bowenspark’s race [she was fresh that day], her sole win came on soft ground, this trip might be ideal, a few less miles on the clock than some, the small yard in fine form, 5yo’s have a decent record in the race, 28/1 4 places, 1/5 odds looked worth an interest.

Good luck!

GeeDee said...

TW,
My weather predictions seem on a par with my racing predictions... :)
Lavida Adiva - that was a good run behind Pretending at Cheltenham last April.
Good luck!

GeeDee said...

My best manifesting efforts proved little more than a waste of time as Steel Ally (6/1) ran his rivals ragged in this handicap hurdle. Beat The Bat (7/1) finished three lengths adrift in second with unexposed Knight Of Allen (14/1) third.
Selection Bowenspark (11/2) raced mid division for much of the trip but was a spent force three out, eventually finishing tenth, beaten some 22 lengths.